Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat With Steve Adams: Today, 3pm CT
MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a chat with today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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The Mets Haven’t Done Enough With Their Rotation
In nearly every aspect, it's been a banner offseason for the Mets. They signed one of the most coveted free agents in MLB history to the largest contract in North American sports. They brought back a franchise cornerstone their preferred way: a short-term deal that doesn't run the risk of overcommitting long-term. They re-signed the lefty who carried their rotation in the season's second half in what looks like a potential late-blooming breakout. They grabbed one of the most underrated relievers not just in this year's class but throughout the sport in general. Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and A.J. Minter make for a terrific quartet of headline additions, with a broad-reaching swath of depth moves also on the books.
Keeping Manaea was an undeniable boon to Carlos Mendoza's rotation, even if it came at a generally steep cost. As shown in MLBTR's Contract Tracker, Manaea is one of just five starters in the past decade to secure a $25MM AAV over three or more years beginning in his age-33 season or later. Teams generally are loath to commit this type of money in a pitcher's mid-30s, but the left-hander's performance and the bull market for starting pitching early in the winter coalesced to land him (and 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi) a rare contract for pitchers in this age bracket.
The rest of the Mets' moves in the rotation, however, have been lackluster. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns came to Queens with a reputation of eschewing long-term deals from his time heading up the Brewers' baseball operations department. There was some question as to how much of that stemmed from Milwaukee's perennially bottom-third payroll and how much was a philosophical directive from Stearns himself. The two offseasons with Stearns at the helm for the Mets don't represent a large enough sample to say he simply won't go long-term for a pitcher under any circumstances, but signs point to the likelihood that his avoidance of large-scale pitching contracts in his Brewers days wasn't solely a product of owner Mark Attanasio's frugality.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!
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The Nationals’ Long-Term Payroll Flexibility
The Nationals have opted for another risk-averse offseason. At the end of last season, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo teased the possibility for an impact lineup addition.
“We need a couple of bats that can hit in the middle of the lineup and take the onus off some of these good young core players and assist them in the run creation of our offense. We have the core players to be middle-of-the-lineup hitters,” Rizzo told MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. That provided some hope that the Nats would make a big free agent push, but that has not come to be.
Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell have been Washington’s biggest lineup acquisitions. Lowe, whom the Nats acquired from Texas for reliever Robert Garcia, has been a well above-average hitter in three consecutive seasons. He’s a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. A reunion with Bell, who has been one of the game’s streakiest hitters throughout his career, on a $6MM free agent deal is less exciting.
Lowe, who will make between $10.3MM and $11.1MM in his penultimate arbitration season, has been Washington’s costliest acquisition for 2025. They took a $9MM flier on Michael Soroka and brought back Trevor Williams for two years and $14MM. They’ve made minimal commitments to Shinnosuke Ogasawara ($3.5MM over two years), Jorge López ($3MM) and Amed Rosario ($2MM). Williams and Ogasawara are the only players to whom they’ve committed multiple years. The latter’s contract pays him like a seventh or eighth starter. Lowe is under arbitration control for another season that could cost upwards of $15MM, but the Nationals could trade or non-tender him if they’re not keen on that price.
It wasn’t the kind of headline-grabbing offseason that suggests the front office felt they were a move or two away from pushing the top three teams in the NL East. They remain the fourth-best team in the division on paper. Lowe could be a legitimate 2-3 win upgrade over last year’s collection of first basemen, who hit just .241/.310/.376. Beyond that, they’re mostly relying on internal improvements.
The Nationals dramatically cut spending during their rebuild. The Lerner family considered selling the franchise and didn’t want to saddle potential buyers with long-term deals. While they’re no longer actively exploring the sale possibility, maybe they haven’t given Rizzo and his front office leeway to make a significant splash.
If that’s the case, the front office’s actions have been understandable if largely unexciting. This roster still seems to be a year away from viable playoff contention. Pursuits of even upper middle tier free agents like Anthony Santander or Sean Manaea were unlikely to change that. They were never going to seriously threaten the Mets, Yankees, etc. on Juan Soto. A top-of-the-rotation arm like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried might have provided the ceiling boost needed in the rotation, but that requires an ownership group willing to approve a $200MM+ free agent deal.
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MLB Mailbag: Guerrero, Alonso, Yoshida, Alcantara, Cubs, Mariners
This week's mailbag gets into Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Pete Alonso, whether the Mets should move on from Alonso, whether any MLB trade was as shocking as the NBA's Luka Doncic deal, those who feel this MLB offseason has been dull, how much the Red Sox would have to eat on Masataka Yoshida's contract, possible Sandy Alcantara suitors, and much more.
Jed asks:
Why is the general expectation that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will get over $400m in free agency next winter for 10+ years despite being a defensively limited, slow-footed, right-hand batting first baseman. With Pete Alonso, I've seen so much coverage about how he may not get more than a $23m AAV from the Mets for no more than three years total. Obviously Pete is 4 years and three months older than Vlad Jr., and would be playing his age 30-32 seasons on a three-year deal. But Vlad Jr. will be 27 in 2026, the first year of his presumptive 10+ year mega deal. After those first three seasons on Vlad's hypothetical 10+ year mega deal, he will also be playing his age-30 season in the fourth year of such a contract, presumably at a $40m AAV.
Aside from getting his age 27-29 seasons, why are pundits convinced that an expensive, long-term deal for Vlad Jr makes more sense than a short-term deal with a $23m AAV for Alonso (especially considering that since their 2019 debut seasons, Alonso has hit 66 more homers and posted a higher slugging percentage)? Why is everyone convinced that Vlad Jr represents a better long-term bet to succeed than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and all the other countless examples of RHB 1B who failed to produce in their 30s?
I can't speak to general expectations; only my own. I encourage you to re-read what I wrote on this on December 10th. A key point was, "So much depends on which Guerrero shows up in 2025."
I strongly prefer the wRC+ stat to home run totals and slugging percentage. We need to account for offensive contributions other than the home run, and in a more logical way than slugging percentage (a home run is not worth four times as much as a single, for example). Guerrero has two elite seasons with the bat: 2021 and 2024. In those years, he hit so well that his defense was an afterthought and he was worth 5-6 WAR. Juan Soto had six 5-WAR-ish or better seasons under his belt prior to free agency (extrapolating his rookie year and the shortened 2020 season), and it's because he's never posted worse than a 143 wRC+.
Guerrero sandwiched a 132 and 118 season between his 160+ ones, and hitting in that more human range can drop him all the way to 1-3 WAR. That's a guy you very much don't want to be paying $40MM a year. But Vlad always has the batted-ball data to back up elite offense, and with another 160+ season I do think offers reach $400MM+.
Alonso's best season was his rookie year with a 144 wRC+. His second-best was 141 in 2022. He's been at 121 over the last two years. He's a 2-3 WAR player who's shown a ceiling of 4 WAR. Guerrero has shown more variance, but his ceiling has been 6 WAR and he nearly reached it in the recently-completed season.
In comparing age, I'd look at the Opening Day difference of each player's first year under a new free agent contract. In other words, comparing age at 4-1-25 for Alonso to 4-1-26 for Guerrero. Using that approach, Guerrero is 3.27 years younger. Those being prime years, they're incredibly important when it comes to free agent contracts.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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The Giants Shouldn’t Call It An Offseason Yet
The Giants' offseason got out to a roaring start and has quieted to something of a murmur. Even before the winter truly began and they formally announced a changing of the guard in baseball operations, then-advisor and now-president of baseball ops Buster Posey at least had a hand in (if he wasn't firmly driving the bus) extending Matt Chapman for six years and $151MM. At his introductory press conference, Posey offered up the following quote:
"I think back on some of my earliest memories walking into a spring training clubhouse -- walking in and seeing Willie Mays sitting at a table with Willie McCovey and Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal. The next week it's Will Clark, Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds. I always appreciated -- and I don't think I appreciated it as much when I was a younger player -- but as time went on, I appreciated what that meant not only to the community but to us as players. There's a standard and expectation for being a San Francisco Giant. It's a privilege to try to go out on the field and hold ourselves accountable to that standard. You can go more toward my era, with [Matt] Cain and [Tim] Lincecum, [Madison] Bumgarner and [Brandon] Crawford and [Brandon] Belt. What I came to realize is sure, all those guys were great players and part of great teams, but what those guys ultimately meant to the San Francisco Giants fanbase and the community was memories. And all of us that are lucky enough to get to be involved in baseball in whatever capacity, understand that not only is it the greatest game in the world, but we're in the memory-making business. It's ultimately entertainment. It's an opportunity for grandparents and parents to share memories. It's an opportunity for strangers sitting out in the bleachers to share a great memory that happens at the ballpark and that can be talked about from that time on for the rest of their life, potentially."
Just over a month into the offseason, that mentality appeared to be on full display. Willy Adames put pen to paper on the largest contract the franchise had ever handed out: a seven-year, $182MM contract. The team was tied to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and looked into trades for star players like Kyle Tucker and Garrett Crochet, ultimately balking at the notion of including top prospect Bryce Eldridge in a package for either. Still, it was a promising start to a winter after years of the Giants eschewing bids for high-end free agents and generally showing an aversion to long-term commitments.
The vibe surrounding the Giants seems much different just six to seven weeks later. The Giants' most recent move was a cost-saving trade. Posey is now expressing that he's comfortable with the roster as currently constructed.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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MLB Mailbag: Bregman, Red Sox, Kelenic, Tigers, Marlins
This week's mailbag gets into Alex Bregman's possible landing spots, Boston's failure to add a right-handed bat, potential contracts for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker, Jarred Kelenic's trade value, the Tigers' relatively quiet offseason, the Marlins' rebuild, and much more.
Mark asks:
Logically, which team makes the most sense to sign Alex Bregman? I see awkward fits in HOU and BOS. And while TOR has a logical fit roster-wise, DET just makes the most sense to me. A need for veteran leadership on a young team, need for a 3B, and room on their payroll. I'm not a DET fan, but an STL fan who wants to find a team for Nolan Arenado, which I doubt happens until Bregman signs! Thanks.
Troy asks:
Big Astros fan here, what is your feeling about where Bregman goes? I'd love to have him back with the team but to me it may not be a good fit anymore with the other moves that have already been made, plus with a win now team such as this I'd rather them take the money they saved trading Pressly and get a true outfielder.
On Tuesday, Astros GM Dana Brown said, "I would mostly say it’s all internal conversations as to what we would like to do in terms of Bregman." Asked a few days earlier whether the door is shut, Brown hesitated and replied, "I would say it's cracked." At another point he said it's a "long shot."
On Monday, Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Bregman "maintains interest from five teams and is no closer to a decision now than before Pressly’s departure." They added, "All winter, sources have indicated Astros owner Jim Crane is unwilling to pay the tax for a second consecutive season." Estimates have the Astros' CBT payroll at $4.86MM shy of the first tax threshold, or $4.68MM short.
Crucially, the Athletic reporters said the Astros' six-year, $156MM offer to Bregman "remains on the table." If that's true, then Crane absolutely is willing to go over the tax threshold again, since Bregman could theoretically just accept their offer right now.
It seems fair to guess that the Astros will not be increasing their offer much if at all. In our early November contract predictions, we gave Bregman the Kris Bryant contract: seven years, $182MM. Bryant, however, was about nine months younger than Bregman will be on Opening Day this year. Plus, Bryant had to join a poorly-run, typically non-competitive team to get his maximum contract.
I don't see why Scott Boras wouldn't just accept the Astros' offer. It's true: if he finds Bregman a bigger offer elsewhere, he wins. I'm not sure Bregman would be happier; I don't know what's going on in his head. But accepting $156MM to stay in Houston would hardly be a disappointment, and it'd still be more money than Matt Chapman received on his recent extension.
Dana Brown might have a great poker face, but I saw nothing to indicate he's bluffing and a deal is right around the corner. On the other hand, if that Astros' offer is indeed on the table, one word from Bregman and the deal could be done.
It's true, the fit is mildly awkward now that the Astros have Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes. But as MLBTR's Steve Adams has said, it's really not crazy to take one of the game's worst defensive second basemen in Altuve and stick him in left field to make the pieces fit. Plus, it wouldn't be surprising to see Yordan Alvarez miss a month or age start to catch up with Walker (34 in March) or Altuve (35 in May). The odds that one of these guys gets hurt are pretty strong.
So I do still like the Astros as the best fit for Bregman, but let's look at the other suitors.
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Where Can The Guardians Find A Center Fielder?
The Guardians have made four free agent acquisitions this offseason. They retained Austin Hedges as their backup catcher. Shane Bieber re-signed to finish his Tommy John rehab and return to the rotation midseason. Cleveland brought back Carlos Santana to play first base -- a move made in tandem with the trade sending Josh Naylor to Arizona. Last week, they added Paul Sewald to an already excellent bullpen. Cleveland also brought in Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi via trade to deepen the rotation.
They've yet to address the outfield. Steven Kwan is one of the game's top left fielders. The other two positions are far less settled. Cleveland tendered Lane Thomas a contract for his final year of arbitration. Barring a late trade, he'll be back to play regularly somewhere. For now, that looks like center field by default.
The Guardians started nine different players in center field last year. Three of them -- Ramón Laureano, Myles Straw and Estevan Florial -- are no longer in the organization. Six others, including Thomas, remain on the 40-man roster. Yet none of them should be playing center field regularly for a team trying to defend its AL Central title. Top prospect Chase DeLauter is the hopeful long-term answer, but he has only played 42 games above High-A. It's tough to bank on him breaking camp.
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