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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Cardinals, Verdugo, Chisholm

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In this week's mailbag, I get into a possible extension for Tarik Skubal, potential fits for Ivan Herrera and Alex Verdugo, and many more trade-related questions.

Kevin asks:

Is a short term extension possible? Tarik will make about 30 million in arbitration for 2025 and 2026. What if Detroit offered him 100 million for 2025/26/27 and 28 ? Slight two year delay for Tarik but money in hand and manageable amount for Detroit. Thoughts?

Skubal, perhaps the current favorite for the AL Cy Young award, turns 28 in November.  As Kevin said, the lefty has two more years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season.

Skubal is a Boras client, but there is reason for him to consider locking in a big payday now.  His 2022 season ended on August 1 due to something alternately called forearm inflammation and then just "left arm fatigue."  He went on to have flexor tendon surgery on August 17 of that year.  As a result, Skubal's 2023 debut was on July 4th, and he returned a different pitcher.  He averaged 94.29 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in 2022, and after he returned from surgery the following year, that was up to 95.81.  He started throwing his four-seamer more and his strikeout rate leapt forward, turning Skubal into one of the game's best pitchers.

This year, Skubal's fastball velocity has climbed further still, up to 96.99 mph.  Since June 19th, he's at 97.47.  In very Jacob deGrom-like fashion, Skubal is now throwing a full three mph faster than he was before his surgery.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Due to the Fourth of July, Darragh McDonald covered the weekly Front Office chat for Anthony Franco.

 

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Which Other Postseason Hopefuls Might Have Arms To Spare?

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The Rays made a somewhat unconventional trade Wednesday, shipping right-hander Aaron Civale to the Brewers in exchange for infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Tampa Bay had the luxury of moving a current member of its rotation despite the fact that the team is still in the Wild Card race and still harbors postseason aspirations. That's due primarily to the organizational depth in the rotation, which was thin earlier in the season but is deepening as the year wears on and as injured arms like Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and (eventually) Drew Rasmussen reenter the fold. Baz will step into the Rays' rotation in Civale's place this Friday.

Most teams don't have that type of cushion. Starting pitching is always at a premium, and starters -- particularly those with multiple years of club control remaining -- tend to be the most coveted asset at nearly every MLB trade deadline.

And yet, the Rays aren't the only club that's poised to operate in this capacity over the next 27 days. There are a handful of teams who could walk the line of dealing from the big league roster -- specifically the rotation -- despite hoping to find themselves playing a prominent role in October baseball. Let's take a look at some possibilities.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets

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This week's mailbag covers the Cubs trading an outfielder, what the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Mets might do at the deadline, Kevin Gausman's decline, and much more.  Let's get into it!

Kyle asks:

Would the Chicago Cubs consider selling Seiya Suzuki at the deadline? What would it cost the Mariners to acquire him?

Robert asks:

Given their contracts and relative underperformance, would there be any takers for Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ if the Cubs decide to sell? If so, could they get anything decent in return? Anyone else on the Cubs that could fetch anything worthwhile?

Brandon asks:

Do you forecast a strong trade market for Cody Bellinger?

The key factor to consider here is that Suzuki and Happ were given full no-trade clauses as an enticement to sign.  That doesn't necessarily make a player immovable.  But for example, if Suzuki simply doesn't want to play in Seattle under any circumstances, that's that.  A lot of times, though, players don't want to stay if they're not wanted, and some sort of bonus can be negotiated for accepting a trade.

Suzuki, 30 in August, has matched his career average with a 122 wRC+ this season.  Despite increased strikeouts, he hit the ball well in June.  His right field defense has been subpar, but not a total killer.  He's been something short of a 3-WAR player per 140 games.  The Cubs, certainly hoping for a breakout after Suzuki's scorching finish last year, have instead gotten more of a solid regular who needs the occasional IL trip.  He's earning $20MM this year and $36MM from 2025-26.

If Suzuki has surplus value relative to his contract, it isn't much, though the trade market isn't teeming with solid regulars.  The Mariners have a bunch of 45-50 grade prospects a bit down their list that I think could net a player like Suzuki.

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The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs

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With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

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The Cubs Keep Trying The Same Thing, And It’s Not Working

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While the Cubs' 2024 season got out to a strong start that saw them sitting a season-high seven games above .500 on May 12, things have spiraled quickly. Since opening the year 24-17, Chicago has played at an abysmal 14-27 clip. That's six and a half weeks of .341 ball that has dropped them to 38-44 -- last place in the National League Central. They're 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead. A four-game deficit in the NL Wild Card race normally wouldn't seem insurmountable, but it's a bit more daunting when a whopping seven teams stand between them and the final Wild Card spot.

There's no shortage of flaws with the current iteration of the Cubs. They're tied for 21st in the majors in home runs, tied for 18th in runs scored and tied for 24th in both batting average and slugging percentage. They've received no production at all from their catchers. On the pitching side, the rotation has had its share of health-related struggles. Justin Steele missed all of April and another start in May. Javier Assad just joined fellow young starters Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks on the injured list. The Cubs' defense has been middle-of-the-pack, at best.

There's one glaring struggle that's plagued them again and again in recent years, however, and one of the driving reasons behind it is easy to see.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the appeal of going underslot in the draft, the Rockies' pitching development challenges, Guardians' outfield targets, Jurickson Profar's market value, Ben Cherington's GM tenure in Pittsburgh, the Tigers' deadline approach, whether teams can move more pitchers from the bullpen to the rotation, and much more.

 

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Francisco Alvarez, Hoerner, Crochet, And More

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This week's mailbag gets into a potential Francisco Alvarez extension, trading Nico Hoerner, valuing Garrett Crochet, potential outfield additions for the Braves, and much more.  Let's get into it!

Ben asks:

What would be a fair contract extension for the Mets and Francisco Alvarez? He is so talented and a great leader for such a young kid, have to imagine he will get expensive in arbitration.

I wrote an answer to this and then ran it by Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald.  They threw cold water on some outlandish contract ideas I had for the Mets' young catcher.

Comparable contracts are lacking for Alvarez.  I don't think comps need to be catcher-specific, especially because there are so few good ones.  The Buster Posey and Joe Mauer deals are too old.  Will Smith signed with four years of service and the Dodgers got his age 29-37 seasons, with a luxury tax dodge as a core feature.

One that comes to mind in the 2+ class, where Alvarez will be after the season, is Andres Gimenez.  He signed a seven year, $106.5MM extension.  Some of the other MLBTR writers see this as something of a ceiling for Alvarez, and I assume the Mets would feel similarly.  At present, I'll take the over on that.

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The Rotation Trade Market Takes Two More Hits

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The past few days haven't been good for teams looking to acquire controllable starting pitching. On Friday, Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval came out of his start shaking his arm. The Halos put him on the 15-day injured list the next day with an elbow strain. One day later, the Marlins announced that Jesús Luzardo was being shut down with a lumbar stress reaction in his back. Miami almost immediately put him on the 60-day injured list -- ruling him out into August.

Sandoval hasn't officially been ruled out beyond the early part of July, but it's hard to imagine he's looking at a minimal IL stint. Within 48 hours, two of the most talented controllable starting pitchers who could've plausibly been available instead very likely came off the trade market. (Players can still be traded while on the injured list, but it'd be such a sell-low on either pitcher that Sandoval and Luzardo would almost certainly stay put.)

Starting pitching injuries have been an unfortunate storyline throughout the season. Almost every team has been impacted, leaving all but a handful of contenders looking for rotation help over the next five weeks. Barring injuries of their own, the Mariners, Phillies and perhaps Yankees could feel great about the strength of their rotation. Everyone else has at least one or two points on which they could upgrade. Milwaukee, Houston, Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego, Arizona and St. Louis could go into deadline season viewing the rotation as their top priority.

There aren't enough healthy starters to go around. Teams like the D-Backs and Reds came up empty in rotation pursuits at the '23 trade deadline. That'll be the case for a handful of teams yet again, particularly with two more arms more or less off the board. The White Sox are even more firmly positioned to dominate the market for controllable starting pitching, while the dwindling supply could provide an opportunity for a team like the Rockies or Rays to get good value for a mid-rotation type.

There are a handful of impending free agents who could change hands -- Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino among them. Flaherty looks to have pulled to the top of the rental starter group. The supply of starters under control beyond the 2024 campaign is dwindling, though. Let's take stock of that market:

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 3:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the Mariners' deadline, a hypothetical A's/Pirates trade involving JJ Bleday and Jack Suwinski, the Yankees' priorities this summer, whether the Nationals will push for a top-of-the-market free agent, baseball podcast recommendations and more.

 

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