MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office members! Subscribe to Front Office to view the full transcript and to participate in future Friday chats.
Anthony Franco
- Initially linked to the moderator part of the chat, sorry about that. I'll be back at the top of the hour but you should be able to submit advance questions now
- Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Let's get rolling
Cedanne Rafaela
- What’s a realistic projection for my future value? If I can figure out the hit tool, man watch out. Maybe this isn’t the guy to demote to get Roman to the big leagues after all.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah it looks like it's falling into place a little bit. He's always going to be a super aggressive hitter, which is probably going to lead to streakiness, but he's got pretty good pop for his size and the contact skills have gotten better with each seasons
- Obviously the glove in center field is already elite. I think the OBP is going to stay low enough that he'll probably be around a league average hitter by OPS+ or wRC+ but he could be a 20-20 guy who ranks among the top 3-5 defensive outfielders in the game
AA
- Do the Braves become sellers at the trade deadline?
Jeddy
- It’s meatball trade idea season. The Braves are 7 games below .500 and 11 games out of the division. They should definitely trade Chris Sale to the Cubs ASAP right?
Sam
- Is this rock bottom for the Braves? How many more ways can a team find to lose a game? AA knew the bullpen was a weakness going into the season but did nothing to address it.
Anthony Franco
- Understandably frustrated Braves fans. Have to imagine they'll hang on right until the deadline before deciding to sell (sorry Jed), but yeah, sure seems like it's trending in that direction
- Feel worse about their outlook now than I did when they were 0-7. They clawed their way out of the initial hole and then dug it again with some brutal losses. They've stuck with Iglesias as the closer for too long, and Strider hasn't looked sharp coming off the surgery
- Anthopoulos spoke with The Athletic earlier this week and pushed back against the idea of selling. He referenced 2021 and pointed out that their run differential is better than their record (though still not great). Given their previous success and the amount of money they've poured into the payroll, they'll cling to hope as long as they can, but time's running out
- Still lean towards them holding Sale specifically because of the affordable option for '26 but they'll have to at least see if someone's willing to blow them away if there's little to no hope for one of the two remaining playoff runs
Tigerfan
- Who should the tigers target at the deadline? I was thinking Eugenio Suarez and/or David bednar
Anthony Franco
- Both make sense to me. Well-rounded roster so they don't have many obvious holes but third base is relatively weak and Bednar would improve any bullpen with the way he's pitched of late
- You could argue for upgrading on Sweeney at shortstop but there aren't any obvious fits there. Bichette would be the big one but the Jays are playing well enough that he's probably not moving
RAGBRAI
- Has Bednar reclaimed the closer role? Will he hold it ROS?
Anthony Franco
- Fully expect him to hold it for as long as he's still in Pittsburgh but they have to move him this summer and then it's up in the air based on wherever he lands
Mike Rizzo Fan Club
- Hi thanks for the chat! What do you think about Dylan Cease this year? I see there's room to improve based on his stats and BABIP and FIP, but do you think there's an underlying cause (perhaps an injury?). Do you see any drop in fundamental skills? Thanks for your opinion.
Anthony Franco
- Nah, I think he's the same guy he's been. Most of the damage came in one start in early April in Sacramento, which is a tough place to pitch. He allowed nine runs in that one and has allowed three or fewer in each of his other 12 outings
- He's been a little inefficient over his past few outings. Obviously you want more than five innings from a top-end guy, which he hasn't provided over his past three starts. He went at least 6 2/3 in each of the prior three, though, and the stuff and whiff rates are still excellent
Black Hole at 2B
- Who will be the Yankees starting 2Bman after the deadline? I was going to suggest Lewyn Sosa but he's hurt now.
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How Should The Cardinals Approach The Deadline?
The Cardinals are amidst a transition year. That's true literally, as John Mozeliak will turn control of baseball operations to Chaim Bloom at season's end. Dating back to last fall, they've framed this season as one primarily about evaluating and developing young players. It's not a rebuild, but their only move to improve over the winter was a bargain $2MM signing of setup man Phil Maton.
It set them up as expected deadline sellers. Impending free agents Ryan Helsley and Erick Fedde ranked among the likeliest players to move in July. It was surprising that the Cards even held both players into the season. Nolan Arenado's contract and no-trade clause meant he'd be a tough player to move midseason, but those rumors figured to resurface.
The team is trying its best to avoid those conversations. They have a 34-27 record that has them narrowly ahead of San Francisco and Milwaukee for the NL's final playoff spot. They've outscored opponents by 28 runs, giving them the fifth-best run differential in the National League. They went an MLB-best 19-8 in May. They've played like a contender so far. One opposing GM who was eyeing trade targets on the St. Louis roster succinctly told Jeff Passan of ESPN this week that the team's better than expected play "sucks" for potential buyers.
Much can change in the next six to eight weeks, but the front office may find itself in a tricky spot. Mozeliak addressed the situation in a chat with Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch last week. "We went into this year with an understanding this was going to be about opportunity for players and depending on what they do with it would determine our next steps, right?" he rhetorically asked. "So when you think about how the public had us as sellers — whether it was selling this offseason or selling at the trade deadline. It might look a little different based on how we’re playing."
It's an acknowledgment that the team could play its way off selling. At the same time, that wouldn't provide much clarity on how aggressively the team should add if they remain competitive. That's a tougher call, especially because of the way their first half has unfolded. The team may be better than expected, but the production has come mostly from their more established players -- particularly on offense. If the Cards are going to upgrade, the most obvious spots to do so would limit the playing time of a pair of young hitters on whom much of their season is supposed to be focused.
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MLB Mailbag: Duran, Bregman, Mariners, Yoshida, Donovan, Giants, Angels
I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. We'll tackle questions on Jarren Duran and the Padres, Alex Bregman's opt-out status, Donovan Solano and Tyler Locklear in Seattle, Masataka Yoshida, Brendan Donovan, some Giants rotation standouts, the Angels' bullpen and more!
Ross asks:
With the report that the Padres are interested in Jarren Duran, what would be a reasonable return for the Red Sox?
As we discussed on the podcast this week, the Padres/Duran connection feels like it's drawing a bit more attention than it should, at least based on the chances of him actually changing hands (even more so if we specifically zero in on the Padres). That's not to say there's no chance of a Duran deal, but the Padres have a clear need in the outfield and an ultra-aggressive baseball operations leader in A.J. Preller. It'd frankly be more surprising if they hadn't inquired on Duran.
That said, it's worth diving into a bit. Duran had a borderline MVP-caliber season last year, hitting .285/.342/.492 with plus defense and elite baserunning. Baseball-Reference valued him at 8.7 wins above replacement. We've seen players named MVP with lesser WAR totals than that, but Duran was an afterthought in the 2024 race thanks to outrageously good seasons from Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and (to a slightly lesser extent) Juan Soto.
The Padres' farm system was once a powerhouse but is now top-heavy and lacking depth. Shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are among MLB's 25 best prospects, but there's not a lot of other talent in the hopper. It makes a deal difficult to envision -- for multiple reasons.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today, at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
- Good afternoon! I'll get this started at 2:30pm CT, but feel free to send in some questions ahead of time if you prefer!
- Greetings all! Let's get underway a bit early
Mrs Murphy
- Is it time to wave the white flag in Atlanta? This offense is just a lost used to be.What’s next for them?
Steve Adams
- Quite a few questions like this from Braves fans, and understandably so, given the poor performance of late, but I generally don't think it's too late for almost any team in MLB, with the obvious exceptions (Rox, Marlins, White Sox, probably the O's and A's).
Atlanta is 5.5 back in the Wild Card chase and "only" four games under .500, which is pretty remarkable when you consider the early struggles and all the time they've had without Strider and Acuña.
Heck, the 2021 Braves were three under .500 at the deadline, and they went on to win the World Series. The Mets and Astros were 10 under .500 this time last year. The 2019 Nats and 2022 Phils were buried even further.
- I was underwhelmed by the Braves' offseason, and losing Profar to a PED suspension is brutal, but it's still a talented core with plenty of winnable series on the near horizon. They get the Rockies, A's, Angels, Orioles, Marlins and a currently struggling D-backs club all before the All-Star break.
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The Quiet MVP Of The Mets’ Pitching Staff
Dating back to Opening Day 2024, the Mets have used 16 different starting pitchers. In today's MLB, that's not really an alarming number. It's right around the median. Clubs like the Dodgers and Brewers lead the pack with 24 starters apiece, while teams with steadier rotations like the Mariners and Twins clock in at only 11 starters each since last year. The Yankees, even after a couple significant injuries in the rotation, have used only 10 -- the fewest in baseball.
The Mets' usage of 16 starters in and of itself isn't remarkable, but it's probably fair to say it also wasn't exactly the plan. Two years ago -- an eternity in the world of Major League Baseball rosters -- they were still dreaming big on future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander forming an elite trio with then-newcomer Kodai Senga. When that didn't go according to plan, the Mets blew things up at the 2023 trade deadline and treated 2024 as something of a bridge year.
The subsequent offseason was punctuated by short-term acquisitions to patch over the rotation. In came Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Adrian Houser -- the first two via free agency and the latter via trade. With Senga and Jose Quintana still on the roster from the year prior, the starting five looked largely set, at least on paper.
As is often the case with pitching staffs, injuries derailed those plans. Senga made one start in 2024. Houser made six before being banished to the bullpen. The Mets picked up Paul Blackburn at last year's deadline, and he made all of five starts before incurring a season-ending injury. Top prospect Christian Scott debuted and looked like he could help to smooth things over ... until he required season-ending Tommy John surgery after just nine starts.
There have been similar hiccups in 2025. Offseason signing Frankie Montas has yet to pitch due to a lat strain. Manaea, who opted out of his previous contract but returned on a heftier three-year deal worth $75MM, has been out all season due to an oblique strain. Scott is still on the mend from that UCL replacement. Blackburn hasn't pitched this season due to a separate knee injury.
But for the past calendar year, the Mets have quietly relied on a homegrown arm to stabilize the staff -- and he's stepped up and thrived as one of the most productive starting pitchers in the sport.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers! Read the transcript below.
- Hi Anthony, have there been way more transactions than usual for late May? Seems so to me.
Anthony Franco
- All minor stuff but yeah, I think so. This week in particular has been really busy with a bunch of small moves
- Granted, Casey Lawrence and Cooper Hummel account for 80% of them
baseball gods laugh and laugh
- What would it take for the Mets to get Brent Suter from the Reds?
Anthony Franco
- Reds are still hanging around so this won't happen in the next couple weeks but yeah, he seems like a perfectly viable Mets target who'd only require a fringe top 30-35 guy in the system
Belli bombs for life
- Yesterday in your Yankees outfielders article, you said Bellinger is virtually guaranteed to opt out after this year. Why? His production is right around where it was for his last season in Chicago. His defensive ratings have gone up, to be fair. But do you think he'll match/exceed the $28.5M he's making next year on a multi-year deal? Why not risk staying in the ballpark made for his swing and enjoy the high AAV for one more year?
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The Yankees’ Outfielders Raising Their Free Agent Stocks
For the second straight season, the Yankees have the best outfield in baseball. Having the best hitter on the planet is an excellent starting point. This level of dominance can't all come from Aaron Judge, though. Last season, Juan Soto paired with Judge as an all-time 1-2 offensive punch. It seemed almost impossible for the outfield to match last year's .266/.377/.516 line after losing Soto to free agency.
They've instead improved upon that monster production through this season's first two months. Yankee outfielders carry a .293/.380/.533 slash. They lead MLB with 37 home runs and trail only the Cubs with 113 runs batted in. They're handily above the rest of the league in all three slash stats. The Cubs are the only team that is particularly close in terms of FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement.
Judge somehow elevating from a .322/.458/.701 performance is the biggest factor. Yet the Yankees have largely offset the loss of production from Soto -- at least so far -- by not having anyone close to last season's weak link, Alex Verdugo. That's a testament mostly to Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, each of whom have gotten out to excellent starts. (Jasson Domínguez has decent numbers overall as well, though most of that comes from a three-homer barrage in Sacramento on May 9.) The early paces from Bellinger and Grisham provide the Yankees needed lineup depth around Judge and Paul Goldschmidt. They're also significant factors for what looks to be a shallow upcoming free agent class behind Kyle Tucker.
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MLB Mailbag: Neto, Nationals, Trade Targets, Free Agents
This week's mailbag gets into a potential extension for Zach Neto, who could offer a Juan Soto-like package for Paul Skenes, Ken Rosenthal's recent article on the Nationals, potentially available outfielders and relievers, upcoming free agents who have helped and hurt their stock, and much more.
RJ asks:
What would an extension look like for Zach Neto?
Neto, 24, was the first player from the 2022 draft class to reach the Majors. As a rookie in 2023, Neto missed a month with an oblique strain and later missed more than that with a back injury. He didn't hit much as a rookie, but as a shortstop was still worth about 2 WAR per 150 games.
Neto avoided the IL in his breakout 2024 season and took off offensively around May, posting a 122 wRC+ from that point forward. He logged over 1,300 innings at shortstop and was worth 3.5 WAR. His baseball card stats were strong too, with 23 homers and 30 steals.
Statcast's Outs Above Average says Neto is a subpar defender in terms of range, suggesting he's not great at lateral movement. The more holistic DRS sees Neto as a positive (we discussed OAA and DRS last week). I don't get the impression his defense is considered a liability, and it probably won't limit his earning power much.
Neto underwent November shoulder surgery, making his season debut on April 18th as a result. He's posted a 141 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances since then, which ranks 32nd in the Majors and fifth among shortstops. He's on pace for 5.8 WAR per 150 games, which would make him a top-five shortstop in baseball. In the small 2025 sample, Neto has traded contact for power, with a pace putting him close to 40 bombs over a full season. Neto went from no red on his Statcast page last year to tons of it this year, with an expected slugging percentage that's actually higher than his already-excellent .542 mark. The second-phase breakout seems real.
The Angels could hardly be accused of service time manipulation, having promoted Neto less than nine months after they signed him out of the draft. Yet as it stands, he entered the season with one year and 170 days of Major League service, two days shy of two full years. That means Neto will go through arbitration four times starting with the 2026 season, resulting in free agency after 2029.
Let's fire up the MLB Contract Tracker, our robust tool designed for this purpose, included with your subscription!
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Which Arms Could The Pirates *Actually* Trade This Summer?
This week's report that there's "no chance" the Pirates trade ace Paul Skenes, just one and a half seasons into his six-year window of club control, stood out as fairly obvious for most onlookers. That anyone felt it needed to be said at all was more a reflection on the organization as a whole than Skenes himself.
Pittsburgh has taken a step back this season, sitting on pace to win 56 games after winning 76 games in both 2023 and 2024. A rebuild that has seen the Bucs pick ninth or better in five consecutive drafts, including No. 1 overall in 2021 and 2023, has not only failed to produce a contender -- it's failed to even produce a farm system that ranks in the top third of MLB. The team at Baseball America ranked the Pirates with MLB's 16th-best system prior to this season. Keith Law of The Athletic did the same. MLB.com's trio of Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra ranked the Bucs 14th. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel was more bearish, ranking them 20th.
The Pirates already fired manager Derek Shelton. General manager Ben Cherington can't feel as secure as he did a few seasons ago. Owner Bob Nutting bears the brunt of the blame; his refusal to invest in the roster leaves the front office and coaching staff zero margin for error. Nutting's overwhelmingly frugal nature also leaves veritably no chance that Skenes will be signed long-term.
Just because a trade at some point down the road feels inevitable, however, does not mean it'll happen this year. That's never seemed likely, and while the "no way, no chance, no how" quote was from a Pirates executive who preferred to remain anonymous rather than place their name on those words, GM Ben Cherington soon offered a similar sentiment on the record.
The Pirates, for all their warts, are still a pitching-rich organization. The name at the very top of the pyramid may not be on the move, but the Pirates will have no shortage of pitchers who are legitimately available this summer. There's always a broad range of "availability." Pure veteran rentals will probably be aggressively shopped. Pitchers signed/controlled through 2026 will presumably be available but with a higher price tag. And there will be some arms with even more club control on whom the Bucs will listen but not outright dangle to contenders seeking to bolster their own staffs.
Let's run through some of the likely available inventory.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
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