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Free Agent Stock Watch: Astros

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The Astros are on the cusp of facing the Nationals in Friday’s third game of the World Series. Even though Houston hosted the first two contests, neither went its way. The Astros dropped a nail-biter Tuesday before the Nats slaughtered them Wednesday. It remains to be seen whether the Astros will mount a spirited comeback, but regardless, their season has a maximum of five games left. After that, they could see some important contributors walk via free agency We’ve already previewed the Nationals’ upcoming list of unsigned players. Now, let’s see which players the Astros might see depart on the open market…

Gerrit Cole, RHP:

  • Fittingly, Cole rivals a National – third baseman Anthony Rendon – as arguably the best pending free agent set to reach the market. Cole’s coming off a 326-strikeout, potential AL Cy Young-winning season at the age of 29 – not to mention a mostly legendary fall – so no one should be surprised if he surpasses or even crushes David Price (seven years, $217MM) for the richest contract a pitcher has ever received. The type of money Cole looks likely to command could end up being too much for Houston, meaning the organization should savor every remaining pitch the superstar throws in its uniform.

Robinson Chirinos, C:

  • While Cole’s likely on his way out of Houston, it wouldn’t be remotely shocking to see the team retain Chirinos. Signed to a $5.75MM guarantee last winter after the in-state rival Rangers cut him loose, the 35-year-old Chirinos has turned in yet another respectable campaign at the plate. Although Chirinos’ reputation as a defender isn’t great, he has at least one key advocate in Astros co-ace Justin Verlander. Chirinos is Verlander’s personal catcher, and manager A.J. Hinch told Dan Shulman of ESPN last week that the two have an incredibly strong bond. Regardless of whether Chirinos sticks with Verlander and the Astros, he should do better on his next contract, perhaps having performed well enough to earn a deal in the two-year, $10MM to $12MM vicinity.

Wade Miley, LHP:

  • Like Chirinos, Miley’s another bargain offseason pickup who has panned out for the Astros. True, Miley didn’t crack their ALCS or World Series rosters. Nevertheless, it’s hard to argue with the regular-season value he gave the team after signing for $4.5MM over the winter. Miley, 32, logged a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate over 167 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, his expected weighted on-base average against (.301) checked in below the real wOBA hitters posted off him (.314). Exciting? Not really. Good enough for another guaranteed deal (maybe even a multiyear pact)? Sure.

Will Harris, RP:

  • There don’t seem to be too many relievers who are more underrated than Harris, a 35-year-old coming off yet another regular season of strong production. Harris amassed 60 innings of 1.50 ERA ball (with a lesser but still-impressive 3.15 FIP), recorded 9.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, and put up a terrific 54.6 percent grounder rate. Harris is now quietly one of the top soon-to-be free-agent relievers out there, so despite his age, he’s another candidate for a two-year accord.

Joe Smith, RP:

  • Smith, 35, joins Harris as a veteran reliever whose quality career has flown somewhat under the radar. He sat out until mid-July this year after suffering a ruptured left Achilles last winter, but the soft-tossing Smith returned to post a Harris-esque 1.80 ERA/3.09 FIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent grounder rate across 25 regular-season frames. Smith has been similarly tough in the postseason, having piled up 6 1/3 frames of one-run ball. While he probably doesn’t have Harris’ earning upside, Smith should at least be able to land a decent-paying one-year contract.

Hector Rondon, RP:

  • Hey, here’s another proven reliever whom the Astros are at risk of losing. Rondon, however, wasn’t nearly as difficult on opposing hitters as Harris and Smith were during the regular season, nor has the team leaned on him in the playoffs. The 31-year-old’s regular campaign consisted of 60 2/3 frames of 3.71 ERA/4.96 FIP ball with 7.12 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 50 percent grounder rate. Compared to 2018, Rondon’s strikeout rate fell nearly 4 percent and his HR-to-fly ball percentage more than doubled, though he still pumped heat upward of 96 mph. He looks to be a decent bet for a relatively inexpensive one-year deal once the offseason arrives.

Martin Maldonado, C:

  • Let’s move back behind the plate to discuss Maldonado, whom the Astros have acquired via trade in back-to-back summers. They reportedly tried to keep the then-free agent with a two-year, $12MM offer last offseason, but he declined and ended up settling for a $2.5MM guarantee with the Royals. Financially, it didn’t work out, and after another year in which Maldonado combined below-average offense with plus defense, it’s easy to imagine him winding up with a second straight payday in the $2.5MM range.

Collin McHugh, RHP:

  • McHugh entered 2019 with several years’ experience as a sturdy starter and one season (’18) of excellence as a reliever under his belt, but things went haywire. The 32-year-old faltered in his return to a starting role early in the season. Between that and the elbow issues he dealt with, the Astros moved McHugh back to their bullpen. He was much more effective in that position, though McHugh’s season came to a premature end in September because of more elbow troubles. Needless to say, the long-solid McHugh’s about to hit free agency at the wrong time.

Astros Fire Assistant GM Brandon Taubman

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The Astros have fired assistant general manager Brandon Taubman, as per a statement released by the team.  The move comes three days after news broke of an incident following Houston’s ALCS win over the Yankees on Saturday, when Taubman repeatedly yelled “Thank God we got Osuna! I’m so f—— glad we got Osuna!” at a group of three female reporters, a reference to one reporter’s criticism of the Astros’ 2018 acquisition of Roberto Osuna while the closer was serving a 75-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy.

The team’s full statement:

During the past two days, the Astros pro-actively assisted Major League Baseball in interviewing Astros employees as part of MLB’s investigation of the events published in the recent Sports Illustrated article. Major League Baseball also separately interviewed members of the media over the past 24 hours.

Our initial investigation led us to believe that Brandon Taubman’s inappropriate comments were not directed toward any reporter. We were wrong. We sincerely apologize to Stephanie Apstein, Sports Illustrated and to all individuals who witnessed this incident or were offended by the inappropriate conduct. The Astros in no way intended to minimize the issues related to domestic violence.

Our initial belief was based on witness statements about the incident. Subsequent interviews have revealed that Taubman’s inappropriate comments were, in fact, directed toward one or more reporters. Accordingly we have terminated Brandon Taubman’s employment with the Houston Astros. His conduct does not reflect the values of our organization and we believe this is the most appropriate course of action.

We are thankful to Major League Baseball and to everyone that cooperated in the investigation. As previously stated, the Astros are very committed to using our voice to create awareness and support on the issue of domestic violence. We fully support MLB and baseball’s stance and values regarding domestic violence. We will continue to make this cause a priority for our organization.

Apstein was the journalist who reported Taubman’s outburst in a piece for Sports Illustrated, which led to a statement from the Astros on Monday describing her story as “misleading and completely irresponsible,” and an “attempt to fabricate a story where one does not exist.”  After multiple other reporters confirmed Apstein’s account of events, the Astros issued two new statements from Taubman and owner Jim Crane, neither of which corrected the organization’s initial claim that Apstein’s story was false.

The Astros organization has been roundly criticized for its response to the situation, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported earlier today that Taubman’s status with the team “has been under evaluation” in recent days.  Taubman was promoted to assistant GM before the 2019 season, following five and a half years with the team in various roles in the baseball operations department.

Astros AGM Brandon Taubman Reportedly Shouted “Thank God We Got Osuna” At Female Reporters

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TODAY: Taubman’s job status “has been under evaluation in recent days” by the Astros, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports.

TUESDAY, 7:00pm: Taubman’s outburst was targeted at one particular reporter, per NPR’s David Folkenflik (all Twitter links). Folkenflik spoke to seven people regarding the incident and reports that Taubman had previously complained internally about this reporter’s persistent tweets offering contact information for domestic abuse hotlines following Houston’s acquisition of Osuna. Chandler Rome and David Barron of the Houston Chronicle report a similar tale, citing two sources close to the situation. Both Taubman and Crane declined further comments on the matter when asked by The Chronicle.

2:10pm: The Astros organization has changed course, no longer labeling the story as “misleading,” “irresponsible” or “fabricated” and instead issuing statements from Taubman and owner Jim Crane. Said Taubman:

This past Saturday, during our clubhouse celebration, I used inappropriate language for which I am deeply sorry and embarrassed. In retrospect, I realize that my comments were unprofessional and inappropriate. My overexuberance in support of a player has been misinterpreted as a demonstration of a regressive attitude about an important social issue. Those that know me know that I am a progressive and charitable member of the community, and a loving and committed husband and father. I hope that those who do not know me understand that the Sports Illustrated article does not reflect who I am or my values. I am sorry if anyone was offended by my actions.

Crane added that the Astros “continue to be committed to using our voice to create awareness and support on the issue of domestic violence,” pointing to the teams charitable contributions in that regard. Neither party’s comment offered any sort of retraction of or apology for the prior statement which called into question the credibility of both Apstein and Sports Illustrated.

Major League Baseball plans to interview the involved parties before commenting further, according to a statement issued by the league this afternoon.

9:30am: While celebrating his organization’s ALCS victory on Saturday evening, Astros assistant GM Brandon Taubman repeatedly shouted at three female reporters who were standing together: “Thank God we got Osuna! I’m so f—— glad we got Osuna!” Stephanie Apstein of SI.com reported the outburst, which has since been confirmed by multiple other reporters — including Hannah Keyser of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link), Hunter Atkins of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link), and other sources that spoke with Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription link).

That statement was made in apparent reference to the Astros’ controversial decision to acquire relief pitcher Roberto Osuna from the Blue Jays in July of 2018. Osuna was at the time serving a 75-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy for allegedly physically assaulting his girlfriend.

At the time that the Astros acquired Osuna, GM Jeff Luhnow stated that the organization “wanted to provide a second opportunity, a second chance” for Osuna. “It’s obviously created quite a bit of conversation in our community and across baseball and outside of baseball,” Luhnow observed. “Quite frankly, I think the conversation is healthy and I think that these topics are important and I’m glad we’re talking about it.” He also expressed hope that there would “be some positive that comes out of this situation down the road” while stating that “this topic is front and center for us as an organization.”

Taubman is reported to have been standing with a group of colleagues about eight feet away from the group of three reporters. He is said to have shouted the statements regarding Osuna about six times. An unnamed Astros employee thereafter issued some form of apology to the three women. Osuna had been questioned by reporters after giving up two runs during the contest, but was reportedly not in the vicinity when Taubman made his statements. Neither were any other players present. Luhnow was not in the clubhouse after the game, Rome tweets.

While the Astros declined to comment on the matter before SI’s reporting was released, the team did ultimately issue a statement last night. (Rome provided it on Twitter.) The Houston organization did not dispute what Taubman said, but labeled the story “misleading.” The Astros claimed, in conflict with the above-cited reports, that: “An Astros player was being asked questions about a difficult outing. Our executive was supporting the player during a difficult time. His comments had everything to do about the game situation that just occurred and nothing else — they were also not directed toward any specific reporters.”

This is not the first time this year that the Astros have come into conflict with media covering the organization. The club removed reporter Anthony Fenech from the clubhouse at the behest of star pitcher Justin Verlander. (Chris Thomas of the Detroit Free Press set forth the long and strange background of that matter from the paper’s side.) MLB issued a statement making clear that the team had acted improperly.

MLBTR Poll: Record Money For Gerrit Cole?

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Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is just moments away from taking the ball against the Nationals in Game 1 of the teams’ World Series matchup. It’s a well-deserved honor for Cole, who has perhaps been the premier pitcher in baseball this season. The 29-year-old logged a sterling 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 13.82 K/9 against 2.03 BB/9 over 212 1/3 regular-season innings in 2019. He was far and away the league leader in strikeouts (326), totaling 26 more than second-place finisher and Astros co-ace Justin Verlander.

Since his incredible regular season ended, Cole has added to his mystique with what has been a legendary playoff run. Cole dismantled the Rays and Yankees over three starts and 22 2/3 innings during the AL playoffs, yielding a mere one earned run on 10 hits with 32 strikeouts against eight walks. Unsurprisingly, the Astros went 3-0 in those games.

Cole may next help pitch the Astros to a World Series title in the coming days, but he’ll have plenty ahead of him after that. Not only does Cole look like a strong possibility to win his first Cy Young Award when the Fall Classic ends, but he might be weeks from scoring the largest contract a pitcher has ever received. To this point, just four hurlers – David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer (Cole’s Game 1 World Series opponent) and Zack Greinke (now a Cole teammate) – have landed guarantees of $200MM or more. For now, the most valuable pact ever continues to belong to Price, whom the Red Sox signed for seven years and $217MM entering 2016.

There may have been skepticism earlier in the season in regards to Cole’s chances of joining Price and the rest of the $200MM club, but there shouldn’t be anymore. The question now doesn’t seem to be whether Cole, a pending free agent, will land a $200MM-plus guarantee; rather, it’s by how much his next deal will exceed that mark. The only potential free-agent starter who’s anywhere close to Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, a World Series foe, but he’s not even a lock to reach the open market. For Strasburg, doing so would mean opting out of the four years and $100MM left on his pact. Should Strasburg do it? Probably. But even if he does, it won’t preclude Cole from securing one of the richest (if not the richest) contracts anyone in the game has ever received.

It’s not hard to imagine deep-pocketed teams like Cole’s Astros, the Angels, Yankees, Nats, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants, not to mention lower-payroll clubs like the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Padres, among those in the mix for his services. So, there ought to be plenty of competition for Cole, which should help agent Scott Boras’ cause as he shops his star client around the league during the offseason. With Boras’ help, Cole may be on the verge of reeling in the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. Do you expect it to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

Evan Gattis Not Actively Seeking Playing Opportunities

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Evan Gattis has stayed out of the spotlight for quite some time, with nary a word printed about whether the former catcher/designated hitter was pursuing a new contract until the Astros invited him to be a part of the first-pitch ceremony prior to tonight’s Game 1 of the World Series. (MLBTR reached out to Gattis’ camp earlier this season to inquire but did not receive a reply.) He’ll catch tonight’s first pitch from former teammate Brian McCann, who retired following Atlanta’s ousting from this year’s playoffs.

Gattis broke the silence surrounding his status today when he spoke with FOX 26’s Mark Berman today about his 2019 absence from baseball (Twitter link). Gattis has not formally retired, but he also doesn’t sound like he’s seeking out any new opportunities.

“I really don’t have an answer,” said Gattis. “I don’t even know if I could play, but right now I don’t want to. [Baseball] was a huge part of my life, but I was ready.”

At this point, if Gattis wished to make a return to baseball, he’d surely need to settle for a minor league pact, though the slugger didn’t seem to have any problem with that notion. “If I really want to play,” Gattis told Berman, “I’ll go play, whether it be in Double-A, Triple-A or the big leagues. But it has been such a big transition, much like before I came back to play in baseball again.” Gattis, for those unfamiliar with his remarkable journey, battled depression and drug use after walking away from baseball following high school (as chronicled by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale back in 2013).

Now 33 years of age, Gattis last suited up in 2018 when he appeared in 128 games for Houston and batted .226/.284/.452 with 25 home runs in 451 trips to the plate. He won a World Series ring with the ’Stros a year prior and spent parts of four seasons with the club (plus another two in Atlanta), becoming a fan favorite of many along the way. In all, he’s a career .248/.300/.476 hitter in 706 MLB games (2662 plate appearances).

Astros Announce World Series Roster

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The Astros have announced the roster that they’ll put up against the Nationals in this year’s World Series. It’s nearly the same exact unit that the club trotted out to success in the divisional series. The ’Stros feature mid-prime hitting and pitching stars as well as a variety of useful additional component parts, making for one of the more imposing overall rosters we’ve seen in recent memory.

Here’s the 25-man group:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

  • None

Infielders

Outfielders

Catchers

Going without a southpaw seems like a bold strategy, but it hasn’t yet hurt the Houston club. The Nats do feature a star southpaw slugger in Juan Soto, but he’s not particularly susceptible to left-handed pitching and the overall D.C. lineup balance makes it tough to mix and match too match. The Houston club continues to prioritize overall pitching ability over handedness, a stance that’s made easier with hurlers that can retire batters on both sides of the dish.

The one switch that the Houston team did make involved relief pitchers. Young power hurler Bryan Abreu has loads of upside, but was knocked around in his lone ALCS appearance. He’ll be replaced by the veteran Devenski, a changeup artist who hasn’t been in peak form but represents another reliable arm. The availability of Pressly had been in some doubt, but he was obviously deemed good to go.

Since the Astros were able to close out the Yankees in six games, they didn’t need to use Cole in an all-or-nothing contest at the end of their just-completed series. That means they’ll be able to line him up for the first game, with Verlander and Greinke to follow. And it reduced the need to add further length to the staff, which helps explain why Wade Miley continues to watch from the sideline. Other roster candidates — Myles Straw, Abraham Toro, Framber Valdez — will also wait to see if a need happens to arise by way of injury.

World Series Roster Notes

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World Series media day gave us a bit of a look behind the curtain at the planning that is going into the early portion of this year’s series. We still don’t have full and final 25-man rosters for the Astros and Nationals, but their respective managers did discuss a few major tactical decisions that have already been made. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and Jake Kaplan of The Athletic were among those to cover the festivities; all links below are to their Twitter feeds.

  • There aren’t any surprises in terms of the initial pitching plans. The Nationals will roll out a rested Max Scherzer for the first game tomorrow night. As a prize for eliminating the Yankees in six games, rather than taking it to a seventh, the Astros will be able to counter with their top option in Gerrit Cole. The second match-up of the series will be just as compelling, with the Nats starting Stephen Strasburg and the ’Stros going with Justin Verlander.
  • After that? You might presume that each team will turn to its third starter — in each case, a hurler that would feature as an ace on quite a few other staffs around the game. Houston manager A.J. Hinch committed to utilizing mid-season trade acquisition Zack Greinke to open game three. But D.C. skipper Davey Martinez says he’s not going to name a starter yet for the first contest back in the nation’s capital. Does that mean that southpaw Patrick Corbin might be utilized in relief in Houston, as he has on several occasions already in the postseason? Martinez said we’ll just have to wait and see how things unfold.
  • It remains to be seen whether either team will end up utilizing a fourth starter to open any contests. The Nats can perhaps have some added confidence in Anibal Sanchez after watching him nearly no-hit the Cardinals in the NLCS, though tip-toeing through an exceptionally potent Astros lineup would be another thing entirely for the wily veteran. It’ll also be a wait-and-see situation for the Houston organization, with Hinch saying Brad Peacock, Jose Urquidy, or some other pitcher could be tapped to open a game that will likely feature quite a few pitching changes.
  • The availability of a designated hitter slot will open some opportunities for the Nats in games one and two. The club is planning to place veteran Howie Kendrick in the bat-only slot, Martinez suggested. Kendrick has stung the ball all year long and thrived in big situations in October, but he has also hurt the Nationals with the glove at times. Meanwhile, Hinch says the Astros will be sticking with young slugger Yordan Alvarez — at least for the first two contests. Whether or not he’ll be installed in left field once the series moves to D.C. could depend upon who’s starting game three — and whether Alvarez can break out of the 1-for-24, 12-strikeout skid he left in the championship series.
  • In terms of a formal roster announcement, that isn’t yet available. The Astros, in particular, are waiting until the last possible moment. The club believes that excellent reliever Ryan Pressly will be good to go after dealing with a knee injury in the ALCS. But it’ll hold off on making the final call until checking on his condition tomorrow. Both teams figure to rely heavily upon their core players throughout the series. Each could go in a variety of directions with a few of the final roster spots — those players that may not end up being used much at all, but could end up being thrust into major roles at key junctures.

Gerrit Cole Rumored To Be Interested In Joining California Team

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  • There’s no telling how much the free agency of the above-noted hurlers could change the shape of the league. Look no further than this week’s World Series for evidence. The Astros and Nationals will face off starting tomorrow with rosters built around “imported” pitching, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The Astros brought in Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke via trade, whereas the Nationals signed Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez in free agency. Whichever team wins four of the next seven games will add to a recent history of champions built around homegrown offense and supplemented pitching. The Cubs in 2016, Astros in 2017, and Red Sox in 2018 all boasted homegrown cores of position players and hired guns on the hill.

The Astros/Nationals Blockbuster Trade That Was Almost A Reality

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The Astros and Nationals share a Spring Training site, but there isn’t exactly a lot of shared history between the two franchises as they prepare to meet in the World Series.  The Astros hold a 244-207 all-time record over the Nationals/Expos, and the no-hitter that Larry Dierker threw against the Expos back on July 9, 1976 is probably the most historically significant game to ever take place between the two clubs….until Tuesday’s Game 1, that is.

There isn’t even a lengthy or significant trade history to work with in finding links between the two clubs, as the last deal between Washington and Houston took place back in 2007.  However, the reigning pennant winners came close to a much more significant trade in July 2018, when Bryce Harper almost became an Astro.  As detailed by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) last November, the two teams had worked out the framework of a trade that would have sent Harper to Houston for a three-prospect package headlined by right-hander J.B. Bukauskas.  The other two prospects were a pitcher in the lower minors and catcher Garrett Stubbs “was in play” to be the third piece, Rosenthal noted.

The swap was ready to go by July 30, the day before the trade deadline, though Nationals ownership stepped in to veto the proposal.  The Lerner family was still hopeful of re-signing Harper to a new contract either in free agency or even before he hit the open market, and didn’t yet want to part ways with the star outfielder.  For similar reasons, a potential August trade between the Dodgers and Nationals that would have seen Yasiel Puig head to D.C. and Harper go to L.A. was also a no-go.

The idea Harper going to the Astros is such an eye-opening concept that the entire baseball world would have been shaken up had the trade been completed.  Here are four of the larger ripple effects that could have emerged if Harper had indeed donned Houston orange in July 2018…

Do The Astros Win The 2018 World Series?
Maybe the most obvious question of the bunch, as the Astros had a surprisingly middle-of-the-pack offense in the second half of the 2018 season.  With Harper’s bat in the lineup, perhaps Houston (who won 103 games in real life) could have scored enough extra victories to overtake the 108-win Red Sox for home-field advantage throughout the postseason.  If not, perhaps at least Harper helps the Astros generate enough offense to overcome the Red Sox in the ALCS.  Astros hitters combined for a mediocre .219/.337/.385 slash line in Houston’s five-game loss, and while pitching (a combined 5.52 ERA) was the Astros’ larger problem against Boston, it’s worth noting that Sox hitters had only a .710 collective OPS.

In a short series, even a few hits could have swung the entire thing Houston’s way, and perhaps Harper could have also been a difference-maker in helping the Astros top the Dodgers in the 2018 Series.  Stretching the butterfly effect out a bit further, maybe the Harper-led Astros only make it a round further, and it’s the Dodgers who wind up as the 2018 champions.  Or, if the Red Sox fell short, perhaps president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is fired after the season (ownership was already considering a change late in the 2018 season), Boston has a new front office boss installed last winter, and the entire scope of the Red Sox 2018-19 offseason and 2019 season are also changed.

No QO, No Status Quo For Harper’s Free Agency
One can definitely fall down lots of different wormholes when exploring an alternate reality scenario, but one thing seems pretty uniformly certain — Harper would still have become a free agent after the 2018 season, and he wouldn’t have been an Astro in 2019.  The Astros didn’t show interest in signing Harper to a mega-deal last winter, and even in a world where Harper magically carries Houston to a championship, it’s very likely that the two sides thank each other for the ring and part ways.  As such, the Astros’ offseason decisions aren’t greatly impacted, so the team’s real-world moves (i.e. signing Michael Brantley and Wade Miley) probably still happen.

One wrinkle to Harper’s free agency is that, since he was dealt at midseason, he was ineligible to have a qualifying offer placed on his services.  So the Nationals would’ve gotten the Bukauskas package but not the compensatory pick they received for Harper once he signed with Philadelphia.  This comp pick ended up falling after the fourth round (since the Nats exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2018) though Washington actually forfeited this pick regardless — the Nationals had to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the draft as compensation for signing Patrick Corbin, another QO free agent.  So without the Harper pick to work with, the Nationals wouldn’t have had a fifth-round draft pick, and thus wouldn’t have been able to select hard-throwing Florida right-hander Tyler Dyson.  Washington went well above slot ($346.8K) in signing Dyson to a $500K bonus, and MLB Pipeline ranks Dyson as the 20th-best prospect in the Nationals’ system.

So with Dyson still on the board, that single inclusion quite possibly shakes up a lot of movement in the draft.  But, if Harper doesn’t have a rejected qualifying offer hanging over him, the Phillies wouldn’t have had to give up their second round pick in order to sign him.  So this gives the Phils another high draft pick to add to their farm system — or maybe the Phillies end up using that pick anyway on another QO free agent.  Harper was known to be on the Phillies’ offseason radar from day one, so it’s safe to assume they’d already earmarked losing that pick to ink him.

But if that wasn’t a consideration, perhaps Philadelphia looks at the other five QO free agents who hit the market (Hyun-Jin Ryu accepted his offer and remained with the Dodgers) and pursues one of them during its aggressive offseason.  How does the 2019 Phillies season play out look if Corbin or Dallas Keuchel had been in the rotation, if Craig Kimbrel was closing games, if A.J. Pollock was in the outfield, or if Yasmani Grandal had been behind the plate?  The latter three are particularly intriguing, since signing any of those players would’ve meant the Phils would’ve had to forego some of their other acquisitions (such as David Robertson, Andrew McCutchen, or J.T. Realmuto) at those same positions.

Tax Relief In Washington
It isn’t known whether the Astros would’ve absorbed all of the approximately $7.21MM still owed to Harper over the last months of the season had the Nationals trade gone through.  But even if only a portion came off the books, trading Harper would’ve jump-started the Nats’ efforts to reload for 2019, and they might’ve dealt veterans like Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, and Ryan Madson on July 31 or earlier in the old August trade waivers period rather than wait until late August to unload the quartet.

The bottom line is that either by moving Gonzalez and company earlier, or in dealing Harper’s salary in its entirety, the Nationals would’ve been able to duck under the $197MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold and reset their penalty clock.  In real life, D.C. had a $205MM luxury tax number, which resulted in a tax bill of $2,386,097 (which included a repeater penalty for exceeding the threshold in consecutive years).

The Nationals again slightly exceeded the $206MM threshold this season, as per both Roster Resource (just under $207.94MM) and Cot’s Baseball Contracts (less than $76K).  These figures are estimations, of course, and given the small amounts involved, it’s possible the Nats managed to slightly sneak under the $206MM mark after all.  Even with the 50% tax rate for three-time CBT payors, this small step over the threshold still means the Nationals won’t be facing a big tax bill.  At Roster Resource’s number, the Nats will owe $969,309.50 in luxury tax payments, which is pocket change to a high-spending team.

Much more importantly than saving under $3.36MM in tax money, escaping the “CBT payor” designation would’ve impacted the Nationals in the 2018-19 free agent market.  As per the qualifying offer rules, Washington’s compensatory pick for losing Harper would’ve come after Competitive Balance Round B rather than after the fourth round — a jump of roughly 60 slots.  Also, signing Corbin cost the Nationals $1MM in international bonus money as well as their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, whereas if they hadn’t exceeded the luxury tax threshold, the Corbin signing would’ve cost only the second-highest pick and $500K in international pool funds.

Do The Astros Still Get Greinke?
This is the ripple effect that perhaps has the most clear and direct impact on the 2019 Series.  If Houston trades Bukauskas in July 2018, it doesn’t have him in the organization in July 2019 to be dealt to the Diamondbacks as part of the four-player return for Zack Greinke.

It’s possible the Astros and D’Backs could’ve settled on another name rather than Bukauskas, though given how the Greinke talks were finalized just minutes away from the trade deadline, who knows how things play out with Bukauskas’ involvement.  Bukauskas was the top healthy prospect in the deal, after all, given that Corbin Martin is sidelined due to Tommy John surgery.

Or potentially, in a reality where the Astros swing the Harper trade but it doesn’t work out, perhaps GM Jeff Luhnow thinks twice the next year about another splashy trade for a big name and foregoes a Greinke trade entirely, perhaps focusing on a lower-tier player or players instead.

It’s safe to assume that the Astros would have still acquired some kind of starting pitching help, and still go on to win the AL West even without an ace like Greinke in the mix.  And while Greinke hasn’t been great in the postseason, does Houston still win Game Four of the ALCS without his 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball?  Or, maybe without Greinke down the stretch, the Astros win fewer than 107 games and lose home-field advantage to the Yankees, which swings the ALCS in New York’s direction.  Or, if the Yankees are the top seed, the American League bracket is flipped entirely and, who knows, we could’ve ended up with a Twins/Rays ALCS.

Latest On Cubs’ Managerial Search

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Just hours after celebrating the Astros’ thrilling ALCS victory over the Yankees, Houston bench coach Joe Espada is headed to Chicago for a second interview with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  For now, Espada is the only one of the Cubs’ six managerial candidates to be brought back for a second interview, greatly elevating his chances of becoming the next dugout boss at Wrigley Field.  Indeed, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes, Espada and former Cubs catcher David Ross “are widely considered the top two candidates for the post.”

It should be noted that a formal second interview might not necessarily be required for three of the other known Cubs candidates, since they all currently work for the organization — bench coach Mark Loretta, first base coach Will Venable, and Ross, a special assistant to the baseball operations department.  As Bastian puts it, “the Cubs know what they have in-house in Ross.  A second interview with Espada will help the franchise get a better sense of what he brings to the table, too.”

Espada has been a popular managerial candidate this winter, as the Giants and Pirates have also shown interest in speaking with the 44-year-old about their own open manager positions.  There hasn’t yet been any indication that Espada has interviewed with either of those clubs, however, though obviously Espada hasn’t had a lot of free time for interviews in recent weeks given the Astros’ continued postseason run.

Moving into the “second interview” phase would seem to hint that the Cubs are approaching an end to their search, though a formal announcement about a hiring may not come until after the World Series, as the league prefers teams to wait until postseason off-days to announce major news in order to keep the focus of the baseball world entirely on the Fall Classic.  This isn’t to say that the Cubs couldn’t announce Espada’s hiring on a World Series off-day, of course, or that he could be hired before his Astros’ tenure is officially over.  In fact, Alex Cora (Espada’s predecessor as Houston’s bench coach) was hired by the Red Sox as their next manager in the days leading up to the Astros beginning play in the 2017 World Series.

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