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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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What better way to kick off baseball’s two-day hiatus than by looking ahead to the upcoming Fall Classic? This year’s World Series feels like something of a throwback, featuring three powerhouse starting pitching matchups to get things going. It’s hard to imagine a better sextet of starters from two teams than Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke on one end, with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin on the other.

The Astros figure enter the Series as the odds-on favorite. Houston won an MLB-best 107 games in the regular season compared to Washington’s 93. Houston’s +280 run differential was also the league’s best, again significantly better than the Nationals’ still-strong +149 mark. The Astros unquestionably boast a stronger bullpen than their D.C. counterparts, and their lineup, for all their struggles in the ALCS, was among the best of all-time in the regular season.

All that said, there are reasons one might reasonably expect an upset, even beyond the vagaries somewhat inherent in short series. The Nationals are probably the better defensive team, last night’s glove show by Houston notwithstanding, with Víctor Robles perhaps baseball’s best defensive outfielder. Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto can go toe-to-toe with any duo in the Astros’ order.

Most importantly, though, any Nationals’ optimism is rooted in the nature of the short series. Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin could (and probably would) start six of the seven games for Washington should this Series go the distance. No one’s surprised any time the Nats fly a curly W when any of those three take the mound. The Nats’ pitching depth (most notably in middle relief and setup work) was the club’s Achilles heel during the regular season. Yet the postseason’s heavy dose of off days has allowed manager Dave Martinez to leverage his top arms. To this point, Washington hasn’t felt any ill effects for essentially deploying a six-man pitching staff (the aforementioned trio of starters, fourth starter Aníbal Sánchez, and top relievers Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson). With six days off between NLCS Game 4 and Tuesday night’s Game 1, Washington’s arms should be more than ready to empty the tank one final time.

So, MLBTR readers, we turn things over to you. Will the Astros cement themselves as a dynasty by winning their second World Series in a span of three 100-win seasons? Or will the Nationals’ three aces pitch their way to Washington’s first World Series parade since the Coolidge administration?

(poll link for app users)

World Series Notes: Altuve, Astros, Nationals, Pressly

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Somewhere in the concourse beyond Minute Maid Park, there lies a stretch of concrete that will one day be the site of a statue in honor of Astros infielder Jose Altuve. Saturday night’s 9th inning saw the diminutive second baseman launch a towering shot into the night air of a tied elimination game in the American League Championship Series, sealing with one swing his place in postseason lore.

But Altuve’s ascension to Game 6 October glory is an unlikely development. While this seems like a pat statement at first glance–perhaps referring, as observers often do, to Altuve’s small, 5’6 frame–the truly unlikely thing about Altuve’s story concerns a nascent failure in his native Venezuela. As Alex Putterman’s 2017 story for The Atlantic explained, Altuve was cut by the Astros after appearing as a teenager in a club tryout camp because the organization considered him too short. At the behest of his father, Altuve returned to tryout for the club again, where he ultimately showed enough to earn a $15,000 signing bonus from Houston officials–hardly a considerable sum in an international signing landscape where seven-figure deals often grab headlines stateside. While a recap of Altuve’s many career exploits following that signing would be redundant at this point, tonight seems a fitting occasion to remember that tonight’s hero achieved his place in history due, in part, to familial encouragement and a little bit of old-fashioned determination. Apparently, even the tiniest of prospects can develop into statues, given the right conditions.

Looking onward to the 115th World Series, beginning play on Tuesday evening…

  • With champagne still raining in the Houston locker room, it’s obviously a bit early to talk pitching matchups–but that didn’t stop Nationals beat writer Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post from giving it a shot (link). As Dougherty sees it, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole should square off in Game 1, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander could conceivably follow in the second game, and Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke project as the matchup for Game 3. For their careers, those six pitchers have combined for 269.3 bWAR. Cole, as has been stated ad nauseam this postseason, is slated for free agency this winter, and Strasburg could follow should he decline the remaining four years and $100MM sitting on the other side of his contractual opt-out.
  • Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle shares that reliever Ryan Pressly had some “scar tissue in his knee [break] off” during his third-inning appearance of Game 6 of the ALCS (link). Said scar tissue is, presumably, the result of surgery Pressly underwent in August to address soreness in his right knee joint. Pressly intimated to Rome that he will be “ready to go” for the World Series. If the pitching lineup Astros manager AJ Hinch used in the ALCS is any indication, then Pressly’s services would be especially vital in Game 4, which could be a bullpen game for the ’Stros. Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington shares that Hinch said in his postgame presser that he is “expecting” Pressly to be ready for World Series action (link).

Pressly Removed With Right Knee Discomfort

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Astros relief ace Ryan Pressly was removed from tonight’s Game Six action after apparently re-aggravating his balky right knee while fielding a ball in the third inning. It was enough surely to make the Houston faithful hold their collective breath, since Pressly missed several weeks after having that same knee surgically repaired in August. For the time being, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart relays that the righty is day-to-day with “right knee discomfort” (link).

Bench Coach Joe Espada Could Be In High Demand

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Though the opener concept is less than two years old, it is suddenly unsurprising to see not one, but both teams planning a bullpen day for game 6 of the ALCS. To see juggernauts like the Astros and Yankees turn to relievers to start a game this late in the postseason is a testament to how quickly the game of baseball can change, writes ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Whether this on-field evolution will change the free agent market remains a question, but the Rays acquisition of Nick Anderson at the trade deadline could point to changing valuations regarding relievers. That trade in particular had a lot of moving parts that make it anomalous, including Ryne Stanek’s inclusion in Miami’s return and Jesus Sanchez’s struggles in Triple-A prior to the trade. Still, the Marlins acquired a borderline top-50 prospect in exchange for a 29-year-old rookie reliever, and the Rays very well could end up with the better end of the deal. Anderson’s performance in the postseason (5 2/3 innings, 1 earned run, 5 hits, 8 strikeouts, 0 walks) goes a long way in explaining to the casual baseball fan why Anderson might be so highly valued. As we await the first-ever bullpen day in a league championship series, let’s see what else is going on around baseball…

  • Astros bench coach Joe Espada surely has enough on his plate ahead of tonight’s game 6, but he’s a man in high demand. The Pirates have joined the list of teams interested in interviewing Espada for their managerial vacancy, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Espada has also received interest from the Giants and Cubs. The Cubs, for one, came away from their interview on Monday “exceptionally impressed” with Espada, per David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago (via Twitter).

Giants Interested In Speaking To Joe Espada

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Astros bench coach Joe Espada has been linked to another managerial opening, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that the Giants have asked the Astros for permission to speak to Espada.  This will mark the third team who has put Espada on their radar this offseason, as he has already interviewed with the Cubs and received some consideration from the Angels before Los Angeles hired Joe Maddon.  At least three more teams (the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers) all considered Espada for managerial vacancies last offseason, as well.

Will Mother Nature Favor Houston In ALCS?

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  • Mother Nature gave baseball an unscheduled rest day on Wednesday when she decided to pour vociferous showers along the East Coast–could she also have handed the Astros a competitive advantage in the ALCS? This is one question explored by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, who notes that the pause in the action has allowed manager AJ Hinch to skip Wednesday’s planned Jose Urquidy-plus-bullpen game (link). Instead, the ’Stros will skip straight to a Justin Verlander/Zack Greinke 1-2 combo for games 4 and 5. “As soon as we can use our best pitchers, the better for us,” Hinch told reporters via teleconference. “It was an easy decision.” The rain delay will force both teams to play the next four games without delay (if games 6 and 7 prove necessary). This state of affairs figures to favor Houston, considering that their rotation makes them slightly less bullpen-reliant than New York. Of course, October is where the unexpected so often comes to pass, so it’s important to remember that Rome’s forecast is exactly that.

Cole's Teammates Speculate On Impending Free Agency

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In less than three hours, Astros ace Gerrit Cole will take the field at Yankee Stadium in the hopes of securing his team a 2-1 lead over New York in the ALCS. Judging from quotes made to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report, his teammates are likely to be feeling mighty confident when Cole toes the rubber. “When you have Gerrit Cole on the mound, we win,” Houston manager AJ Hinch told Miller. “We have. We’ve kind of proven that.” Not wrong. Cole, 29, hasn’t lost a decision since May 22 (a date which preceded the Stanley Cup Finals, for reference) and is coming off a Divisional Series performance that saw him strike out 25 of the 54 Rays batters he faced. His success has been so tremendous that even his fellow Astros have begun to muse on just how much money the UCLA product might be in line to receive in free agency this winter. “I think everybody’s looking at that across baseball,” said outfielder Josh Reddick. “Harper money? Machado money? It’s going to be interesting.”

Wade Miley Left Off Astros ALCS Roster

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The Houston Astros announced their roster for the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees, which begins tonight in Houston. Two changes were made from the ALDS…

Wade Miley and Myles Straw are the two casualties from the NLDS group. Miley would have been a candidate to start game four, but momentum has moved increasingly to Jose Urquidy to get the nod for that game. Straw appeared in games 1 and 2 of the ALDS as a pinch-runner, but he is a numbers casualty here as the Astros decided to carry a 12th pitcher.

Right-handers Bryan Abreu and Brad Peacock join the group. Peacock can serve as a long man out of the pen, or he could be a candidate to start the fourth game of the series. Abreu is an especially interesting add, as the 22-year-old has just 7 big league appearances under his belt. A high-spin-rate curveball is his trademark pitch, and though he was a starter in High-A and Double-A for most of the season, his 6 September appearances were enough to prove his postseason utility to the Houston brass. He struck out 13 batters in 8 2/3 big league innings, giving up just 4 hits.

Here’s the complete 25-man unit:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

None

Infielders

Outfielders

Catchers

Miley’s absence is the most notable for a couple of reasons. He provided steady production for most of the season, finishing 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP across 33 starts and 167 1/3 innings. He also saw postseason success for last season’s Brewers when he carried a 1.23 ERA over 14 2/3 postseason innings. He appeared in game three of this year’s ALDS, surrendering 4 hits and 2 earned runs across 2 2/3 innings in relief of Zack Greinke. Miley is a free agent at the end of the season after signing a one-year, $4.5MM deal with Houston this offseason. Being left off the ALCS roster is not likely to affect the market for his services this winter.

Without Miley, the Astros aren’t carrying a single left-handed pitcher on the roster. The Yankees are flush with right-handed power hitters, so it’s not necessarily a glaring need, but it’s still worth noting. Of course, the Astros have gone without a lefty in their pen for stretches of the season, and it’s a cosmetic issue nonetheless. Pressly, Harris, James, Osuna, and Urquidy have all fared as well or better against lefties this season as against righties, despite the unseemliness of throwing with their right hand.

Yankees, Astros Announce ALCS Rotation Plans

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Yankees manager Aaron Boone and Astros skipper A.J. Hinch each spoke with the media today and divulged the upcoming starting pitching plans of their respective organizations. The teams have each named starters through the first three contests in the American League Championship Series.

Game 1, tomorrow night in Houston, will feature Masahiro Tanaka and Zack Greinke. The 30-year-old Tanaka has had his share of ups and downs in recent seasons, but turned in a strong effort against the Twins in the ALDS (one earned run in five innings with seven strikeouts and one walk). Greinke, who was acquired with a series like this in mind, struggled badly in his first postseason showing with his new team. But he’s one of the game’s most experienced hurlers and remains vested with quite a lot of trust.

Thereafter, the clubs will turn the ball over to their best starters. James Paxton goes against Justin Verlander in game 2, while Luis Severino will square off against Gerrit Cole in game 3, the first contest at Yankee Stadium. There’s little doubt that Houston’s co-aces have the advantage on paper, but the Yankees duo is also amply talented.

Each of the six pitchers listed above will be faced with a massive challenge. As Greinke put it today, in typically dry manner, “it’s tough to get good hitters out than not as good hitters.” Both lineups (and benches) are loaded with good hitters.

Unless these starters can fill up a lot of frames, the two teams’ bullpens could end up getting a workout as well. That has the potential to make things quite interesting in game 4. Neither team has a clear, high-end starting option ready to run out after their top three arms. Even if the Astros roll with Jose Urquidy, he’ll be going on a short leash with expectations of leaning on multiple relievers. While the Yankees can get some length from Luis Cessa and/or Jonathan Loaisiga, they’ll likely be attempting a true bullpen game in a high-stakes situation.

Comparing Gerrit Cole To The $200MM Pitchers

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Astros right-hander and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole just mowed down the Rays for the second time in the teams’ LDS matchup. Thanks in large part to the sheer brilliance he displayed in the second and fifth games of the series, the Astros have moved on in the postseason and are one step from advancing to the World Series. No matter how the year ends for the Astros, though, Cole’s in for a prosperous few months as arguably the preeminent soon-to-be free agent in baseball.

Cole, who just turned 29 a month ago, looks likely to head into the winter with a realistic chance at securing a $200MM-plus contract. As noted earlier this week, just four other hurlers (David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke) have reached that milestone to this point. But how does Cole compare to each member of that group when they signed their deals? Let’s stack up Cole against the younger versions of those starters in several key categories…

  • Age when their contracts took effect: Price: 30; Kershaw: 26; Scherzer: 31; Greinke: 32
  • Career average fastball velocity – Cole: 96.1 mph; Price: 94.2; Kershaw 93.2; Scherzer: 93.4; Greinke: 92.3
  • Career ERA/FIP – Cole: 3.22/3.06; Price: 3.10/3.19; Kershaw: 2.61/2.88; Scherzer: 3.60/3.38; Greinke: 3.34/3.32
  • Career strikeout percentage – Cole: 27.6; Price: 23.4; Kershaw: 25.4; Scherzer: 25.7; Greinke: 21.6
  • Career walk percentage – Cole: 6.5; Price: 6.4; Kershaw: 8.3; Scherzer: 7.5; Greinke: 6.0
  • Career groundball percentage – Cole: 44.7; Price: 44.3; Kershaw: 43.9; Scherzer: 38.7; Greinke: 43.8
  • Career hard-contact percentage – Cole: 30.1; Price: 26.7; Kershaw: 24.4; Scherzer: 28.3; Greinke: 27.9

While the above numbers don’t tell the entire story, it’s inarguable that they carry significant importance when evaluating the usefulness of a pitcher. And there’s no doubt they make it clear that Cole’s career has compared quite favorably to all members of the $200MM class when they received their exorbitant paydays.

Adding to Cole’s appeal, he’ll journey to free agency as hands down the No. 1 starter on the market – someone who’s fresh off back-to-back dominant seasons, a third straight 200-inning campaign and perhaps a heroic playoff run. With all of those factors in mind, it would be perfectly reasonable for Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, to try to secure a contract in a record range for his client. Price ($217MM over seven years), Kershaw (7/$215MM), Scherzer (7/$210MM) and Greinke (6/$206.5MM) continue to lead the way for now, but they may have company soon.

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