MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?
It was just last season when the Rays battled back from down 2-0 to force a game 5 winner-take-all match with the Astros in the ALDS. That game featured a showdown of Gerrit Cole versus Tyler Glasnow, one that would be replayed this year, but with Cole wearing pinstripes. Cole fared better last year, when the Astros took down the Rays by a score of 6-1. The Rays got their revenge on Cole Friday night, and now they’re ready to check the Astros off their list as well. Easier said than done, however, as these Astros have proven they won’t go quietly.
The home team won every game in their playoff showdown last year. Of course, this season there will be no home crowd to contend with, but the tables have turned in that the Rays are the AL East champs who will enjoy last bats for games 1, 2, 5, and 7. As a wild card entrant, the Astros are a rare much-disliked underdog. They’re also a much different team from last year, at least on the pitching side of things.
Of course, their front offices know each other well. After the Astros were forced to fire Jeff Luhnow, James Click was hired away from the Rays to take over as General Manager. Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Click said about facing his former team, “On a scale from zero to weird, it’s going to be weird.”
This series will be played over 7 consecutive days, should it go the distance. Both the Rays and Astros have gone to “playoff style” in their pitcher usage, but a 7-game, 7-day series will stretch those staffs even further. For the Astros, there’s concern about the health of Zack Greinke. The 36-year-old enigmatic ace has been dealing with arm soreness for the past month, though doctors did not find any structural damage. Still, it’s a concern for the Astros, as Greinke hasn’t been at his sharpest, surrendering 5 earned runs in 8 2/3 postseason innings thus far.
They’ve survived without him largely due to the breakout of 26-year-old Framber Valdez, who will start game one on Sunday night. Lance McCullers Jr. will go in game two. They’re planning to remove a position player in favor of having an extra arm for the ALCS, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (via Twitter). Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are also options to start games, while Enoli Paredes stepped up in a multi-inning role for the Astros against the Athletics. As a staff, they’re breaking new ground with every new win. Even Ryan Pressly, one of their few veterans, is experiencing his first postseason as a closer.
Same as Houston, the Rays will add a 14th pitcher to the staff and drop a position player, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). That should help them cope with a drawn-out series, the but the Rays chart their own path in terms of managing their pitching staff, as evidenced by manager Kevin Cash bringing back Glasnow to serve as a glorified opener on 2-days rest for the clinching game of the ALDS. Blake Snell will get the game one start for the third round in a row, while Charlie Morton is expected – though not announced – as the game two starter.
Because they play in different divisions, these two teams haven’t faced off since last year’s ALDS. The series starts tomorrow night. MLBTR readers, who is going to win this series? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Who Will Win The ALCS?
-
Rays 79% (6,667)
-
Astros 21% (1,777)
Total votes: 8,444
Astros Name Starters For First Two Games Of ALCS
The Houston Astros named their starters for the first two games of the upcoming ALCS versus the Tampa Bay Rays. Breakout star Framber Valdez will get the ball in game one, while Lance McCullers Jr. will start the second game on Monday night, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and others (via Twitter).
The 26-year-old Valdez established himself in the rotation this season for the Astros, going 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP over 70 2/3 innings with 9.7 K/9 to 2.0 BB/9. His two postseason appearances have been particularly sharp. He threw 5 scoreless innings in relief to lock down game one of the wild card series against the Twins. He then went 7 innings in game two against the A’s, yielding just a pair of runs en route to a victory and a 2-0 series advantage. He’ll get a shot to set a similar tone against the left-leaning Rays.
A veteran of big games, McCullers Jr. will get the ball in game two. The Tampa native will make his 6th career postseason start against the Rays on Monday night. McCullers’ sole postseason appearance this year came in an ALDS game one start against the Athletics. It wasn’t a great outing, as the 27-year-old went 4 innings, giving up 8 hits, 3 home runs, and 5 runs in total – though only 4 were earned. During the regular season, he made 11 starts with a 3.93 ERA/3.70 FIP across 55 innings with 9.2 K/9 to 3.3 BB/9.
Because this series has the potential to go 7 games in 7 days, it’s unclear when Valdez and McCullers Jr. might be ready to pitch a second time. On normal rest, they could return for back-to-back starts in games 6 and 7, but it’s more likely the Astros turn to them sooner, depending on the results of the first few games of the series.
Joe Biagini Elects Free Agency
Right-hander Joe Biagini has rejected an outright assignment from the Astros in favor of free agency, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan). He was designated for assignment late last month.
The move was all but a foregone conclusion after Biagini cleared waivers. Players with three-plus years of service time have the right to become free agents at the end of a season in which they’ve been outrighted off the 40-man roster, and there’s no reason for Biagini not to explore his opportunities under that setting. Virtually every three-plus service player who is outrighted goes this route unless they have a guaranteed contract they’d forfeit by taking free agency. That wasn’t the case with Biagini, who played out the 2020 season on a one-year deal after avoiding arbitration last winter.
Biagini, 30, was a solid reliever for much of his time with the Blue Jays but immediately struggled upon being traded to Houston alongside Aaron Sanchez in the 2019 trade that brought Derek Fisher to Toronto. Biagini served up a dozen runs in just 14 2/3 innings down the stretch in 2019, and he was clobbered for 10 runs in just four outings this year. Overall, he logged a 10.74 ERA in 19 frames as an Astro.
That (clearly) wasn’t what the ‘Stros had in mind when acquiring a righty who, through 50 innings in 2019 at the time of the trade, had pitched to a 3.78 ERA with a 50-to-17 K/BB ratio. Beyond those rudimentary numbers, Biagini boasted elite spin rate on his breaking ball as well as career-high swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates at the time of the trade. There was plenty for the Astros to dream on, but their high hopes for Biagini simply never came together.
Biagini will hit what is expected to be a tepid free-agent market and likely need to prove himself to a new club on a minor league deal. He carries a 5.07 ERA in 328 big league innings, although that mark is weighed down a bit by an unsuccessful attempt by the Blue Jays to work him into the rotation (6.08 career ERA as a starter). Prior to being traded to Houston, Biagini carried a 4.04 ERA in just over 200 inning of relief. Biagini has four-plus years of service, so if he latches on with a new club and rights the ship, he’d be controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration.
Pitching Notes: Montas, Astros, Morejon, Rays
The latest on a few teams’ Division Series pitching plans:
- The Athletics are turning the ball over to right-hander Frankie Montas for this afternoon’s must-win Game 4 against the Astros, per various reporters (including Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News). The 27-year-old was the best pitcher on staff in 2019 before an 80-game suspension following a positive PED test derailed his season. Montas hasn’t performed anywhere close to last year’s level in 2020, although he continues to pump high-90’s heat and strike batters out at a high rate.
- The Astros haven’t yet named their opposing starter for Game 4. Manager Dusty Baker didn’t rule out turning the ball over to veteran Zack Greinke, who has been dealing with some arm soreness, notes Jason Beck of MLB.com. The 36-year-old ran in the outfield before yesterday’s game but did not throw, reported Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). If Greinke doesn’t go, fellow righty Cristian Javier would be the logical choice to get the ball. [UPDATE: Greinke will get the ball for this afternoon’s potential clincher, via Jake Kaplan of the Athletic and others].
- The Padres finalized their rotation plans for what they hope will be the next two games against the Dodgers. Young southpaw Adrián Morejón will go in tonight’s Game 3, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link), with righty Chris Paddack scheduled for a potential Game 4. Of course, there’ll only be a fourth game if San Diego can stave off elimination tonight with L.A. leading the best-of-five set two games to none.
- The Rays, meanwhile, are planning to go to an opener to kick off tonight’s Game 4 against the Yankees. Reliever Ryan Thompson will get the ball to start (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Presumably, the sidearmer will be backed up by lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who has shown he’s comfortable providing bulk innings behind openers over the past two years.
Astros To Start Jose Urquidy In Game Three; Zack Greinke Battling Arm Soreness
October 7: Doctors have told Greinke that there were no signs of structural damage in his arm, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and others (via Twitter). That’s great news for the Astros, but there’s still no word on whether or not Greinke will be available to pitch in the divisional series.
If Greinke can’t go in a potential game 4, Cristian Javier could get the start, but Javier will also be available out of the bullpen today, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (via Twitter). If they win today, after all, they can rest easy and not have to worry about Greinke’s readiness until the ALCS next week.
October 6: The Astros have a commanding 2-0 lead in their best-of-five ALDS matchup with the Athletics, though not without some uncertainty in their pitching rotation. Manager Dusty Baker told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter links) and other reporters that righty Jose Urquidy will start tomorrow’s Game 3, as Zack Greinke is “ailing some” due to arm soreness. No specifics were given about Greinke’s condition, though Baker said Greinke has been examined by doctors.
Greinke last pitched during Game 1 of the Astros’ wild card series with the Twins, tossing 79 pitches over four innings and allowing one earned run on two hits and three walks. While nothing to write home about, Greinke’s outing nonetheless represented his best work in over a month, as he posted a 5.73 ERA over his final seven starts and 37 2/3 innings of the regular season. This isn’t to say that Greinke’s current arm problem contributed to these struggles, however, as Rome noted that Greinke was on the roster for both the wild card round and the ALDS, and the right-hander was even throwing during Sunday’s team workout.
Pitching injuries have been a major story of Houston’s season, and the idea of the Astros being on the doorstep of the ALCS without either a healthy Greinke or without Justin Verlander (who made only one start before suffering the forearm injury that eventually led to Tommy John surgery) would have seemed inconceivable. The Astros posted only a 29-31 record during the season, yet solid work from starters like Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., and Urquidy helped carry Houston into the postseason despite an inconsistent offense.
This work has continued into October. The Astros allowed just two runs during their two-game sweep of the Twins, and while McCullers didn’t pitch well in Game 1 against Oakland, the bats came alive in a 10-5 Houston victory. Today, Valdez was outstanding in seven innings of two-run ball, leading the Astros to a 5-2 win in Game 2.
While Urquidy obviously have Greinke’s track record, the second-year pitcher has already delivered in the playoffs. Urquidy started Game 2 against the Twins and allowed one run in 4 1/3 innings of work, and he most memorably threw five shutout innings starting Game 4 of last year’s World Series against the Nationals.
Still, it isn’t good news for the Astros that Greinke’s status for both this series and potentially the best of the postseason could be in question. The lack of off-days in these playoffs will test Houston’s pitching depth, but the Astros can earn themselves some extra time off if they can eliminate the A’s either tomorrow or in Thursday’s Game 4.
Brad Peacock Undergoes Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery
Brad Peacock underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder on Tuesday, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). The exploratory surgery could present a number of different diagnoses, so it’s unclear at this time how long Peacock will be sidelined or whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day in 2021.
Peacock managed just 3 appearances in 2020 before being shut down due to shoulder soreness. The surgery is particularly bad timing for Peacock, who is set to become a free agent at year’s end after making the prorated sum of his initial $3.9MM contract. This season was Peacock’s 8th with the Astros, with his only other major league appearances coming in 2011 with the Nationals, for whom he pitched 12 total innings. For his career, the 32-year-old owns a 4.01 ERA/4.22 FIP in 181 games (83 starts) covering 554 2/3 innings with 9.5 K/9 to 3.9 BB/9 for a 2.47 K/BB ratio.
Two notable trades brought Peacock to the Astros prior to the 2013 season. The first sent him from the Nationals – the organization that drafted him in the 41st round of the 2006 draft – to the Athletics as part of the return for Gio Gonzalez. Just about two years after that, the Astros acquired him with Max Stassi and Chris Carter in the Jed Lowrie deal.
He is one of a number of Houston bullpen staples from years past that are absent from their current run. Peacock, Chris Devenski and Roberto Osuna are all out due to injuries (while Will Harris joined the Nationals). Osuna, of course, led the AL in saved in 2019 but missed all but 4 outings of 2020. Last we heard of Osuna, he was going to attempt rehab to avoid a potential Tommy John surgery. Devenski underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery last month. He also only appeared in 4 games for Houston this season. Devenski and Osuna both have one season of arbitration remaining.
In other Astros news, right-hander Joe Biagini has been outrighted to Triple-A Round Rock after clearing waivers, per Rome. He will have the option of electing free agency. The 30-year-old struggled mightily after joining Houston as part of the Aaron Sanchez deal last season. After posting a 7.36 ERA in 13 appearances to close out 2019, Biagini allowed 10 earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings this year.
Quick Hits: Rays, McClanahan, Astros, Valdez, Pirates,
The Rays had a tough ninth inning in tonight’s game one against the Yankees. But after Giancarlo Stanton put the game away with a grand slam, the Rays got to make a little history themselves. Shane McClanahan became the first pitcher in MLB history to make his major league debut in the postseason, writes MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (via Twitter). Hitters have accomplished the feat, including this season when Alex Kirilloff made his debut for the Twins. McClanahan was the Rays #5 ranked prospect in Baseball America’s midseason report, and he’d pitched only as high as four games in Double-A prior to his ALDS appearance on Monday night. Rays manager Kevin Cash tasked the former 31st overall pick of the 2018 draft with getting the final out of the ninth inning. The southpaw allowed a high-chop infield single, then surrendered a walk to load the bases for DJ LeMahieu. McClanahan got the AL batting champ to hit one of the end of the bat, which he fielded cleanly to retire the side. While the playoffs rumble on, the rest of the baseball world continues in the background…
- Framber Valdez will start game two of the ALDS for the Houston Astros on Tuesday with a chance to go up 2-0 in the series. But there was a version of events in which Valdez never would have been employed by the Astros at all. Valdez told reporters Monday that he was actually signed by the Brewers back in 2015, but he was released after a failed physical (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The lefty didn’t elaborate as to what brought about the failed the physical, and given the range of possibilities, it’s not worth speculating. The Astros signed the hard-throwing southpaw on March 18, 2015 as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, and he made his big-league debut in 2018. This season was his real breakout, however, as he locked down a spot in the Astros’ rotation with a 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP in 70 2/3 innings before turning in a dominant, five-inning relief showing in Game 1 of the Wild Card round.
- Pittsburgh Pirates GM Ben Cherington continues to re-make the organization that hired him as General Manager back on November 18, 2019. Lots has changed in the year plus that Cherington has been in charge, but a long rebuild still lies ahead. Given the revenue dips caused by the pandemic, it’s not particularly surprising that today’s news regards a “mix of firings and not renewing contracts,” per Jason Mackey of PG Sports Now (via Twitter). Among those not returning to Pittsburgh are strength coach Jim Malone, head athletic trainer Bryan Housand, and senior advisor Nick Leyva, among others it seems. Given the trends we’re seeing in the industry, it would not be surprising to see these positions either filled internally or not filled at all.
Astros Announce ALDS Roster
The Astros announced their 28-man roster for this week’s American League Division Series against the Athletics. Here’s the full roundup:
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Luis García
- Zack Greinke
- Josh James
- Cristian Javier
- Lance McCullers, Jr. (Game 1 starter)
- Enoli Paredes
- Ryan Pressly
- Andre Scrubb
- Cy Sneed
- José Urquidy
Left-Handed Pitchers
- Brooks Raley
- Blake Taylor
- Framber Valdez (Game 2 starter)
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
There’s only one change from the team’s Wild Card Series roster that swept the Twins in the first round. García is on, adding a remarkable sixth rookie to the pitching staff. Infielder Jack Mayfield was left off in his place. After starting Game 1 of the Wild Card series, Greinke’s role remains up in the air after it was announced that McCullers and Valdez would be getting the ball for the first two games of the DS.
McCormick was only selected to the Houston roster before the Twins’ series, but he didn’t see any action. Accordingly, he’ll be making his MLB debut if/when he gets into a game against Oakland.
Athletics, Astros Name Starters For First Two Games Of ALDS
The Oakland A’s will switch up their starting rotation heading into their ALDS series with the Houston Astros. Chris Bassitt – who started the 2nd game of the wild card series – will take the hill in the series opener, per Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (via Twitter).
It would be easy to confuse Bassitt for a fungible back-end rotation type, but he’s been a consistent performer for Oakland over the years. This season represented a breakout of sorts for the 31-year-old, who went 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA/3.59 FIP over 11 starts in the regular season. He went 7 innings, giving up just 1 earned run to keep the A’s season alive in game 2 of the wild card round against the White Sox.
Lefty Sean Manaea will look for postseason redemption when he gets the ball in game 2, per Gallegos. Manaea – Gallegos reminds us – gave up 3 home runs over just two innings last season in a wild card game loss to the Rays. He’ll be familiar with his surroundings at Dodger Stadium, as his last start came in that very park a little under two weeks ago. For the year, Manaea went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA/3.71 FIP in 11 starts.
Manaea is one of a number of southpaws the A’s could throw at the Astros, who as a team marked a 94 wRC+ against lefties in 2020 versus 102 wRC+ against right-handers. Alex Bregman crushed lefties in 2020 for a 166 wRC+, but each of Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Kyle Tucker performed markedly better versus right-handers this season.
After Bassitt and Manaea, the A’s could go in a number of different directions, which will likely depend on the results of the first two games. Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, Mike Minor, and Mike Fiers could all be possibilities to start games 3 through 5. That group gives the A’s a slight advantage over the Astros when it comes to their rotations, writes MLB.com’s Andrew Simon.
It would be quite the showdown for Fiers to get a start late in this series. Fiers, of course, famously outed the Astros in the sign-stealing scandal that rocked the baseball world last winter. The Astros and A’s already have enough to fight about given the early-season altercation between Ramon Laureano and Astros’ hitting coach Alex Cintron, which led to suspensions for the involved parties.
All that said, Fiers may very well not be the best option for the A’s. Though he started the deciding third game of the wild card series, he lasted just 1 2/3 innings. In prior seasons, he’s been passed over for key postseason starts both with the Astros and the Athletics. Luzardo is certain to land higher on the pecking order than Fiers, though he could be utilized out of the bullpen as he was in 2019. The same can be said for Montas, who came out of the bullpen for a two-inning stint against the White Sox.
On the other side, manager Dusty Baker announced Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez as the starters for games 1 and 2, respectively, per the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan and others. The only real surprise here is that Zack Greinke would then be held out until game 3. Greinke is less likely than others to show up out of the bullpen the way Valdez did in game 1 of the wild card series. Still, with a 5-game series in 5 days, there figures to be less opportunity for that sort of roster manipulation. There will be a game 3, and no matter how the first two games of the series go, the Astros figure to feel pretty good with a rested Greinke ready to go in game 3. Baker, to be clear, has not named his game 3 starter.
Injury Notes: Osuna, Meadows, Brewers
It’s been nearly two months since Tommy John surgery was initially recommended for Astros closer Roberto Osuna. A couple weeks later, however, Houston skipper Dusty Baker revealed that Osuna was opting for a rest-and-rehab route. Osuna elaborated on the decision to FOX 26’s Mark Berman, revealing that a second opinion offered him a different conclusion: a forearm strain that could benefit from four weeks or so of rest. Osuna shut down from throwing for the recommended four weeks and resumed throwing three weeks ago. He’s optimistic that he’ll be able to avoid surgery based on the way his arm feels and his most recent input from doctors.
Even with a deep postseason run for Houston, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he builds up to the point of being able to pitch in 2020. And given that he’s eligible for a raise on this year’s $10MM salary in arbitration before becoming a free agent next winter, he doesn’t appear to be a lock to be tendered a contract. Even if he were to simply repeat this year’s salary, that’d be a rather sizable gamble to take on a reliever who is just months removed from a Tommy John recommendation.
A couple more injury notes from around the game…
- The Rays have been without Austin Meadows since Sept. 17 due to an oblique strain, but Tampa Bay general manager Erik Neander tells reporters that it’s possible Meadows will be able to rejoin the club for its upcoming ALDS date against the Yankees (Twitter link via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The 25-year-old Meadows opened the season on the Covid-19 IL after testing positive and experiencing symptoms in July. He didn’t look like himself when on the field, struggling to a .205/.296/.371 slash with a bloated 33 percent strikeout rate in 152 plate appearances. That’s miles away from last year’s .291/.364/.558 slash and 22.2 percent strikeout rate. If Meadows is able to return to that 2019 form, it’d obviously represent a major boost to the Rays in a division series that could pit them against Gerrit Cole twice. With Meadows absent, the Rays’ only left-handed-hitting outfield options have been Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips.
- Brewers skipper Craig Counsell didn’t give a particularly positive update on Brett Anderson when asked by reporters last night (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The veteran lefty, who is not on the Wild Card roster due to a blister, hadn’t improved much since the end of the regular season and was “not close” to being considered for the team’s roster in round one of postseason play. Right-hander Devin Williams, meanwhile, said he believes he’d be able to rejoin the roster in the next round of postseason play, should the Brewers qualify (Twitter link from McCalvy). The breakout changeup artist was left off Milwaukee’s Wild Card roster due to shoulder soreness. Any Brewers injury news could be rendered mostly moot, of course, as they’ll fight for their playoff lives tonight in an elimination showdown with the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw.