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Past, Present & Future: American League Closer Turnover

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By the end of the 2017 season, the list of pitchers closing out games for their respective teams included Matt Belisle, Alex Claudio, Juan Minaya and Mike Minor. Three of them were without a career save coming into the season—Belisle had five in 13 MLB seasons—and none had been expected to fill a significant late-inning bullpen role. By way of injuries, trades or ineffectiveness from those ahead of them on the depth chart, they were given a chance to record the final out in a close win and proved themselves capable.

Things haven’t changed much this year. Raise your hand if you thought Wily Peralta would have one save in 2018. He has 13! Of the 15 American League teams, only four currently have a closer situation that mirrors what they had on Opening Day. When it comes to closers, uncertainty is the only certainty. And that’s why Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are Hall of Famers and the relief pitchers who will join them in Cooperstown in the future are few and far between.

Here’s a look back at each American League team’s closer situation on Opening Day versus where they are now and where they will be as they head into the offseason. (Click HERE to view the National League.)

[Related: MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]

Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Committee — Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens
September 2018: Mychal Givens

Future Outlook: Brach got the majority of the committee’s save chances prior to Zach Britton reclaiming the job shortly after returning from the disabled list in late June. Soon after, Givens was the last man standing following a series of July trades (Brach to the Braves; Britton to the Yankees). O’Day, meanwhile, suffered a season-ending hamstring surgery and was later traded to Atlanta in a separate deal.

A valuable setup man for most of the past three seasons, Givens has done a fine job since taking over ninth-inning duties. In his last 19 appearances, he has a 2.18 ERA and eight saves in 10 chances. With so many holes to fill on the roster, upgrading at the closer position is probably low on the Orioles’ priority list. Givens, therefore, likely enters 2019 with the job — if he isn’t traded himself this offseason as the O’s continue their rebuilding efforts.

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Boston Red Sox | Red Sox Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Craig Kimbrel
September 2018: Craig Kimbrel

Future Outlook: Kimbrel, who recently became the fourth pitcher in MLB history to record at least 40 saves in five different seasons, has been a huge part of Boston’s historic season. As a free agent following the 2018 campaign, the 30-year-old will command a contract that rivals the highest-paid relievers in the game. Can the Red Sox afford to let him walk? Just in case he does, they’ll have to plan accordingly.

With Joe Kelly also set to become a free agent, Matt Barnes is the logical choice to inherit the closer’s gig. He’s earned the opportunity with a 3.28 ERA and 25 holds while serving as the primary setup man on the best team in baseball. The 28-year-old also has an impressive 13.9 K/9 in 60.1 innings of work, an increase from 10.7 K/9 in ’17 and 9.6 K/9 in ’16. The only question is whether a team capable of winning over 100 games will entrust the role to someone with two career saves. If Kimbrel signs elsewhere, it seems likely that the Sox would pursue alternatives in free agency and/or trades.

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Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Joakim Soria
September 2018: Committee — Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Minaya, etc.

Future Outlook: Soria was as good as he’d been in years, posting a 2.56 ERA with 16 saves and 11.4 K/9 in 40 appearances. The White Sox cashed in by sending him to the Brewers for two pitching prospects in late July. Since then, they’ve handed off the closer’s job to a committee that included just about any relief pitcher on their active roster—seven different pitchers have recorded saves since the Soria trade.

The next step for the rebuilding White Sox is to put together a roster that can, at the very least, be a .500 team and potential playoff contender. Having a reliable closer would be an important part of that plan. Jones looks the part, but he’s missed most of the last two seasons recovering from elbow surgery and still might not be ready to take on the workload of a primary closer. A healthy Zack Burdi, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2016 and one time “closer of the future,” could also be in the mix at some point, though he spent 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery. They’ll likely play it safe, however, and add at least one veteran with closing experience this offseason.

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Cleveland Indians | Indians Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Cody Allen
September 2018: Co-Closers – Allen and Brad Hand

Future Outlook: Allen has a lot of mileage on his arm, averaging 71 relief appearances per season since 2013, and it’s showed at times during the current season. With Andrew Miller on the disabled list and Allen’s ERA creeping up near 5.00, the Indians’ acquisition of Brad Hand from the Padres on July 19th was a no-brainer.

Not only has it helped them down the stretch—Hand has a 2.45 ERA and eight saves while Allen has 10 consecutive scoreless appearances—it also gives the Indians a very good closer option for 2019. Allen and Miller are both headed for free agency while the 28-year-old Hand is under contract through 2021. The job should be his moving forward.

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Detroit Tigers | Tigers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Shane Greene
September 2018: Shane Greene

Future Outlook: With a 5.20 ERA and six blown saves in 37 chances, Greene is probably lucky to have held on to the job for the entire season. But on a rebuilding Tigers team, who is going to close out games for them is the least of their worries. With that said, Greene probably fits best as a setup man. Even if they don’t upgrade this offseason, All-Star Joe Jimenez (11.2 K/9, 22 holds, 3 saves, 2.88 FIP) could supplant Greene in 2019.

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Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Co-Closers – Chris Devenski and Ken Giles
September 2018: Roberto Osuna

Future Outlook: Despite a drop in strikeout rate—8.0 K/9 in ’18; 11.7 K/9 in ’17—Osuna has continued to perform at a high level amid abuse allegations that led to a 75-game suspension under MLB’s domestic abuse policy. The Astros still decided to acquire him in a trade with the Jays despite the ongoing investigation.

Barring any struggles during the team’s playoff run — he’s postseason eligible in spite of that suspension — or any further off-the-field troubles, the 23-year-old Osuna seems likely to enter 2019 as the Astros’ closer. He’s under club control through the 2020 season.

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Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Kelvin Herrera
September 2018: Wily Peralta

Future Outlook: Soon after Herrera was traded to Washington in mid-June, Peralta emerged from the closer committee to become one of the unlikeliest ninth-inning success stories of 2018. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the 29-year-old has 13 saves in 13 chances and a 9.5 K/9 rate.

After getting booted from the Brewers’ rotation last May, he had a disastrous 11-appearance stint as a relief pitcher (17 1/3 innings, 23 ER, 28 H, 15 BB) before getting designated for assignment in late July. He signed a Major League deal with Kansas City this offseason, only to be designated for assignment again and outrighted to Triple-A. He returned to the Majors one day before the Herrera trade and picked up his first MLB save eight days later.

Peralta has a $3MM club option in 2019, which could very well be exercised. Even if it’s not, he’s remain under team control for one more season via arbitration. While he’s been better than anyone could’ve anticipated in his current role, his 22 walks in 31 1/3 innings serve as a red flag that will likely keep the Royals from locking him into the job next season without some form of competition.

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Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Keynan Middleton
September 2018: Ty Buttrey

Future Outlook: Blake Parker, who finished 2017 as the closer, picked up the team’s first save of 2018 after finishing last season in the role. But it was Middleton who got the call for the next six save chances, all successful, making it clear that he was manager Mike Scioscia’s preferred choice in the ninth inning. A few weeks later, however, Middleton had undergone season-ending Tommy John surgery and it was back to the drawing board for the Angels.

Parker got the majority of save chances with Middleton out. And as was the case in 2017, he got the job done with a 3.21 ERA and 13 saves in 16 chances from May 14th—the day after Middleton’s last game— through September 3rd. But Buttrey, acquired from the Red Sox in the July deal for Ian Kinsler, is getting a chance to show what he can do as of late. In six appearances from September 7th through September 18th, the 25-year-old tossed seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and four saves. He has failed to convert his last two save chances, though.

Regardless, there probably wasn’t enough time for Buttrey to seal the job for 2019. He will be a candidate alongside Parker, though, unless the Angels acquire a closer this offseason.

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Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Fernando Rodney
September 2018: Trevor Hildenberger

Future Outlook: After saving 25 games and solidifying the ninth inning for Minnesota over the first four months of the season, Rodney was traded to Oakland in August. Ryan Pressly, who would’ve been the logical choice to succeed him, was traded to Houston in late July. A closer committee appeared likely, but Hildenberger has been the go-to guy with seven saves in eight chances since Rodney’s departure. Taylor Rogers, while serving mostly in a setup role, has not allowed a run over his last 23 2/3 innings while logging two saves and 11 holds over that span.

Between Hildenberger, Rogers, Addison Reed and Trevor May, who has five walks and 31 strikeouts in 23 innings in his first season since Tommy John surgery, the Twins have some decent late-inning options for 2019. It’s probably not enough to keep them away from the offseason closer’s market, though.

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New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Aroldis Chapman
September 2018: Co-Closers – Zach Britton and Dellin Betances

Future Outlook: Chapman might not have enough time to reclaim the closer’s job before the end of the regular season—he returned from the disabled list last Wednesday—or even the playoffs for that matter. But there’s no reason to think a change is on the horizon in 2019. The 30-year-old lefty, who is 31-for-33 in save opportunities and is striking out 16.1 batters per nine innings, will be entering year three of a five-year, $85MM contract.

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Oakland Athletics | Athletics Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Blake Treinen
September 2018: Blake Treinen

Future Outlook: Treinen has been one of the breakout stars in 2018, saving 37 games while posting an 0.80 ERA and striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings for a playoff-bound A’s team. The 30-year-old is still under team control for two more seasons, although he’s in line for a significant raise from the $2.15MM he made in ’18. Barring injury, there’s no doubt that he’ll retain the job in 2019.

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Seattle Mariners | Mariners Depth Chart 

Opening Day 2018: Edwin Diaz 
September 2018: Edwin Diaz

Future Outlook: No other closer, arguably, has contributed more to his team’s success than the 24-year-old Diaz, who has 14 more saves (56) than any other pitcher in baseball and 13 more save chances (60). The Mariners play a lot of close ballgames—they are 36-21 in one-run games—and Diaz rarely gives his opponent a chance in the ninth inning. He has held his opponent scoreless in 59 of his 71 appearances and hitless in 44. He also has 41 multi-strikeout games.

The 24-year-old is going to get paid once he reaches arbitration, although he could fall just short during the upcoming offseason. The Super Two cutoff has not fallen under 2.122 (two years, 122 days) since 2009. Diaz will be one day shy of that total.

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Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Alex Colome
September 2018: Co-Closers – Sergio Romo/Jose Alvarado

Future Outlook: When Colome was traded to Seattle on May 25th, the Rays were two games under .500 and 10 games out in the division. It’s not clear whether they were throwing in the towel or whether they just had enough confidence in Romo, who had 84 career saves coming into the season, and the remaining group of young arms. In any case, it’s worked out just fine.

Since the trade, the Rays are 64-44 with Romo as the primary closer (3.38 ERA, 23-for-28  in save chances) and Alvarado, a 23-year-old lefty, also playing an integral role (1.98 ERA, 7 saves). Not that you can count on the Rays to do anything conventional like name a closer prior to the season or at any point during the regular season, but Alvarez and the hard-throwing Diego Castillo would be the leading in-house candidates if they did. Tampa Bay could also look to bring Romo back into the fold.

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Texas Rangers | Rangers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Keone Kela
September 2018: Jose Leclerc

Future Outlook: No relief pitcher has boosted their value more in the second half of the season than Leclerc, who spent the first four months in a setup role. Once Kela was traded to the Pirates on July 31st, it was the 24-year-old Leclerc’s chance to shine. It’s hard to imagine a more convincing way to show that he wouldn’t be relinquishing the job anytime soon.

Aside from converting each of his 11 save opportunities, Leclerc has allowed just two hits and six walks over 17 scoreless innings while striking out 28. The Rangers will look to bolster their bullpen this offseason, but finding a new closer isn’t likely to be on the agenda. Leclerc is controlled through 2022.

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Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Roberto Osuna
September 2018: Ken Giles

Future Outlook: Despite being the primary closer on the World Champion Astros, it was clear  that Giles was not trusted with the game on the line. The trade to Toronto in late July gave the 28-year-old a chance to re-establish himself, out of the spotlight, as a reliable late-inning reliever. So far, so good.

After a few shaky appearances to begin his Blue Jays tenure, Giles has settled into the closer’s role with 1.29 ERA over his past 15 appearances with 12 saves in 12 chances. It might not be enough to prevent the Jays from pursuing another option this winter, but Giles should at least be in the mix.

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POTENTIAL FREE-AGENT CLOSER OPTIONS
Nate Jones (if $4.65MM club option is declined)
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller
Fernando Rodney (if $4.25MM club option is declined)
Sergio Romo
Joakim Soria (if $10MM mutual option is declined)

Astros Activate Lance McCullers Jr.

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The Astros announced that right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. has been reinstated from the disabled list. He’d been sidelined since Aug. 5 due to a right elbow injury, but he’ll be active for the season’s final handful of games and for the postseason. Houston also recalled lefty reliever Reymin Guduan for the final stretch of play.

[Related: Houston Astros depth chart]

McCullers, 24, was cruising to arguably the best season of his big league career but hit a rough patch in mid July that saw him surrender 14 runs on 18 hits and a dozen walks in a span of 17 2/3 innings before landing on the disabled list. He’s currently sporting a 3.93 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 through 126 innings. That’s the largest regular-season workload McCullers has tallied at the MLB level to this point in his career, though he tossed 137 innings last year when including his postseason work and a brief minor league rehab assignment. He also logged 155 2/3 innings between the Astros and Triple-A back in 2015.

McCullers will be available for the ’Stros in relief for the time being — a role in which he shined while closing out the final game of last season’s American League Championship Series. If McCullers is to remain in the ’pen for the Astros’ postseason endeavors, Houston can still lean on Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton as rotation options.

As for the 26-year-old Guduan, he’ll give manager A.J. Hinch another southpaw option in matchup situations. He’s yet to find much in the way of big league success, but Guduan did notch a 3.74 ERA and average 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 55 1/3 Triple-A frames this year — albeit against an unpalatable average of 5.2 walks per nine innings.

Blue Jays Notes: Martin, Braves, Kemp, Giles, Bullpen

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The latest from Toronto…

  • Russell Martin reflects on a tough year in an interview with Sportsnet.ca’s Jeff Blair, and needless to say, the veteran catcher is hoping for better things in 2019 for both himself and his team.  Martin hit just .194/.338/.325 over 352 plate appearances this season, an unimpressive slash line that could end up being his final number, as Martin has barely played in September due to the Jays’ desire to give playing time to younger catchers Danny Jansen, Luke Maile, and Reese McGuire.  Martin has seen additional time at third base this year and even performed spot duty as a shortstop and left fielder, though in regards to his future as a catcher, “I’d like it to be a competition and force [the Jays] to make a decision” in 2019, he said.  Martin is owed $20MM next season, his last under contract, though he isn’t likely to receive more than a backup catcher or overall utilityman role since the Blue Jays are in rebuilding mode.
  • Blair’s piece also includes the notable item that the Braves had interest in Martin last offseason while trying to find a trade partner for a Matt Kemp deal.  Atlanta ended up sending Kemp to the Dodgers in a fascinating five-player trade that had major salary ramifications for both teams, and resulted in a big on-field impact as well in 2018, as Kemp enjoyed a comeback season and Charlie Culberson and Brandon McCarthy both contributed to the Braves’ NL East-winning campaign.  Last winter, however, the Braves were simply trying to get Kemp off the books, and it’s interesting to wonder what type of “bad contract swap” could’ve been cooked up between the Braves and Jays, particularly with former Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos running Atlanta’s front office.  If Martin had ended up a Brave, he likely would’ve seen a lot more third base time this season, as the Braves already had Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki as a very productive tandem behind the plate.
  • “I’m actually enjoying the game more than I did for my entire tenure in Houston,” Ken Giles tells The Toronto Star’s Rosie DiManno about his first eight weeks in a Blue Jays uniform.  Giles came to the Jays as part of the controversial deadline deal that sent Roberto Osuna to the Astros, and continued his season-long trend of excelling in save situations but pitching poorly in non-save appearances.  While his results may not have differed, Giles said his comfort level is much higher in Toronto than in Houston, as “it was like the communication was lost” this year with the Astros.  “I just felt trapped there. I didn’t feel like myself there. Overall, I felt out of place,” Giles said.  The Blue Jays, by contrast, “stayed patient with me. I said, hey, I want to work on this thing till I’m comfortable….Pitching, you can’t just try to fix everything at once.  For me, I had to take baby steps to get my groove back.  The Jays allowed me to do that.“
  • Giles projects to be the Jays’ closer in 2019, though the bullpen as a whole will need some attention this offseason, Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes.  Toronto is expected to look at adding veteran relievers in trades and free agency to bolster a unit that could face a heavy workload next season, given that the Jays will be planning on a young and inexperienced starting rotation.  As well, veteran additions (as well as incumbent relievers like Giles) could also be turned into trade chips at the next July deadline, such as how the Jays have dealt the likes of Seunghwan Oh, Joe Smith, and John Axford over the last two years.

Injury Notes: Morton, Gregorius, Marte, Valera

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Astros hurler Charlie Morton departed from today’s contest against the Angels after pitching just one inning. As Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was among those to tweet, the cause for his exit was discomfort in his right shoulder. Shoulder inflammation was what sent Morton to the DL earlier this season, and the situation is particularly concerning considering Morton was already pitching on seven days’ rest. We’ll await further news from Houston’s camp on Morton’s situation, but needless to say, this is an unfortunate development for a team hoping to begin its title defense in under two weeks. Morton’s been a force for the Astros this season, posting a 3.15 ERA with 195 strikeouts in just 163 innings, and they can scarce stand to lose him for any stretch of the playoffs with Lance McCullers Jr.’s ability to pitch deep into games still an uncertainty.  [UPDATE: A.J. Hinch told McTaggart and other reporters that Morton was only supposed to throw three or four innings, and was removed for precautionary reasons after Morton’s velocity dropped.  The righty is still expected to make a start next weekend against the Orioles.]

A few more unfortunate injury developments from around baseball…

  • Another AL playoff team will be white-knuckling it today, as Yankees manager Aaron Boone announced that Didi Gregorius tore cartilage in his wrist on a slide home yesterday and may not return this season (h/t Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). He’s since received a cortisone injection, and while there’s no definitive word on his status for October, the news is ominous and unwelcome to a Yankees ballclub that would definitely like to be at full strength as they attempt to secure home field advantage over the A’s in a return to the one-game Wild Card playoff.
  • Add Orioles infielder Breyvic Valera to the list of players whose status for the season’s final weeks is in doubt. X-rays showed a fracture of the second metacarpal in his left index finger, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Valera was one of five players to join the Orioles as a component of the trade that sent Manny Machado to the Dodgers. He’s collected nine hits (all singles) in 38 plate appearances since coming to Baltimore, chipping in a stolen base along the way.
  • Pirates outfielder Starling Marte departed today’s game with left calf tightness. The two-time Gold Glove award winner has hit .277/.322/.452 with 19 homers and 33 steals in 576 plate appearances in 2018, and while the Pirates were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in that game, they’ll surely be hoping the injury to Marte isn’t serious. Needless to say, he’s a vital component in their contention plans for the 2019 season, and as we await further word on the details, the Pittsburgh fan base will surely be hoping that a late-season calf issue doesn’t disrupt that.

West Notes: Kershaw, Pressly, Diamondbacks

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“There is no finality in Clayton Kershaw’s future. There is uncertainty,” Bill Shaikin writes in an article for the LA Times. While he’s hardly the first to think along those lines as the future Hall of Famer approaches a decision about his opt-out clause, Shaikin’s words do an excellent job of setting the tone for a conversation that’s likely quite uncomfortable for a large chunk of the fan base: Did Clayton Kershaw just make his last regular season start at Dodger Stadium?

For Kershaw’s part, he was transparent about his feelings on the mound. “I would be lying if I said it didn’t cross my mind,” Kershaw said. When asked whether or not he’d decided to opt out of the remaining $65MM on his contract, the lefty simply said “no”. Dodgers chairman Mark Walter reportedly confirmed on Friday that he still hopes to make Kershaw a Dodger “for life”. The city of Los Angeles will probably be monitoring any rumors and hints about the situation quite closely in the coming weeks as the deadline for their franchise icon’s decision advances.

More news from out west…

  • An interesting piece by Ron Wolschleger at Beyond the Box Score details the success of Astros deadline acquisition Ryan Pressly, and opines that he might be their best reliever. Highlighted in the piece are Pressly’s 0.90 ERA and 36.6% strikeout rate since joining the Astros. His 1.60 FIP also ranks second in the majors since the deadline. Mentioned in the piece as one potential catalyst for Pressly’s production surge after coming to Houston are changes in his pitch selection and sequencing, particularly the ditching of his two-seam fastball.
  • With the Diamondbacks having plummeted out of the postseason picture, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic looks ahead to the offseason and lists the club’s 11 pending free agents and ranks them in order of how good a fit they are to be re-signed by Arizona. Interestingly enough, Buchanan opines that 35-year-old catcher Jeff Mathis is the best bet to be kept, in no small part due to his defensive prowess, game-calling abilities and positive clubhouse presence. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Buchanan doesn’t expect the Diamondbacks to keep right-hander Randall Delgado in the fold for 2019, citing his poor overall results on the season.

2019 Vesting Options Update

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Near the end of May, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk provided readers with an update on all the known 2019 vesting options. As he mentioned at that time, some options of this kind go unreported, so we’ll examine the list below with the caveat that it could potentially be incomplete.

A vesting option is a clause in a player’s contract that can change the structure of the deal by guaranteeing him an additional year under contract; these are usually triggered when a player meets certain plate appearance thresholds and/or is healthy at season’s end.

Here’s where those six players stand…

Will Vest

Seunghwan Oh: The South Korea native is just one relief appearance away from triggering the clause in his contract that’ll turn his $2.5MM club option (with a $250K buyout) into a guarantee. Oh, 36, originally signed his contract with the Blue Jays, where he began the season strong and was ultimately flipped to the Rockies prior to July’s non-waiver trade deadline. On the whole, he’s whiffed 10.19 batters per nine while walking just 2.34 per nine en route to a tidy 2.76 ERA. With the Rockies in the midst of a pennant chase, Oh is sure to get his 70th appearance on the season at some point in the coming days.

Will Not Vest

Hanley Ramirez: HanRam started the season hot, but after posting a .874 OPS in April, he mustered just a .500 OPS the month following en route to being designated for assignment on May 24th (just four days after out last vesting options update). What was once an intriguing situation to watch had the mystery taken out of it abruptly, and Ramirez hasn’t played in the bigs since.

Cole Hamels: The resurgent lefty has been a welcome sight for a Cubs rotation that didn’t get any semblance of what they hoped for from Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood. Since being acquired from the Rangers at the trade deadline, he’s tossed 63 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball. That brings him to just 177 2/3 IP on the season, however, which will fall well short of the towering 252 figure he needs for his vesting option to trigger. Per the terms of a deal he originally signed with the Phillies, Hamels’ $20MM club option ($6MM buyout) would have morphed into a one-year, $24MM pact if he managed to throw 200 innings this season and 400 total from 2017-2018, all while ending the season without any shoulder or elbow injuries requiring a DL placement. Hamels took the mound for just 148 innings last season, so while he’s been pretty good in Chicago, hopes of achieving his vesting option threshold were little more than a pipe dream to begin with.

Brian McCann: McCann was already fighting an uphill battle in his attempts to reach his 1,000th plate appearance across the 2017-2018 season (a threshold which would have triggered his vesting option). At the outset of 2018, he needed a career-high 601 PA, and after undergoing knee surgery that knocked him out of the lineup for all of July and August, his chances of achieving that lofty goal were squelched entirely.

Ervin Santana: We had already written off any chance of Santana’s option vesting all the way back in May, when he hadn’t yet taken the field due to finger injury issues. While he did manage to get back to the mound for five starts, he’d have needed 200 innings in order to qualify for a $14MM guarantee in 2019. That was never going to happen for a pitcher who made his season debut on July 25th.

Logan Morrison: After a promising 2017 season that saw Morrison launch a career-high 38 bombs, the lefty-hitting first baseman was unable to find a team willing to buy into his newfound success. The Twins, however, gave him a one-year pact with a $8MM club option for 2019 ($1MM buyout) that would vest if he took 600 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Morrison’s performance has taken a considerable downturn this season; that dive can largely be attributed to nagging hip issues that ultimately necessitated season-ending surgery. During that procedure, he had a torn labrum repaired and a bone spur removed. That, of course, took the possibility of triggering his vesting option off the table, as his plate appearance total sits at just 359 on the year.

AL West Notes: Fast, Correa, McCullers, Sipp, Simmons, Rangers

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Astros director of research and development Mike Fast has left the organization, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those to cover (via Twitter). The former Baseball Prospectus scribe joined the organization well in advance of its rise to prominence, forming a key part of the front office team assembled by GM Jeff Luhnow. Fast tells Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s hoping “to latch on with another team” in some capacity, though he did not otherwise offer any clues as to the reason for his departure or his expectations in pursuing a new opportunity.

It’ll be interesting to see both where Fast lands and how he’s replaced. Here’s more from Houston and some division rivals …

  • The postseason-bound Astros are getting ready for the ALDS, which means a focus on health. As Kaplan reports (Twitter links), star shortstop Carlos Correa will get some time off to rest his back before ramping back up next week. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. will throw from the pen upon returning to action early next week. Ensuring that Correa is at full strength is obviously of critical importance to the organization’s hopes of repeating as World Series champs. Though he hasn’t hit to his typical standards this year, Correa undeniably possesses the talent to be a force in October. Likewise, getting back McCullers, who has been sidelined with a forearm strain, would also be notable. Though it may not be likely that he’ll shoulder anything approaching a starter’s workload in the playoffs, McCullers would represent another high-quality arm on a staff that’s already loaded with them.
  • Astros southpaw Tony Sipp is flipping the script in 2018, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes. The veteran reliever discusses his tough moments over the last two seasons with candor. It came as a wake-up call, he suggests, when he found himself “having to answer questions about making a team when your contract is guaranteed,” as occurred this spring. As it turns out, the 35-yer-old has bounced back from a pair of homer-plagued seasons, posting a 2.06 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 35 frames in 2018. He’ll return to the open market this winter, but first will play an important role in the ’Stros postseason pitching mix.
  • The Angels have faced their share of disappointments this year, but have also watched as shortstop Andrelton Simmons has cemented himself as a premium all-around performer alongside the peerless Mike Trout. Indeed, the 29-year-old Simmons has again topped 5 fWAR with a blend of solid, contact-oriented hitting and otherworldly defense. That doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have designs on improvement, however. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register explores, the game’s premier defender is hoping some added strength will lead to a power boost going forward.
  • While the Rangers have only just begun looking for a new skipper, after firing Jeff Banister today, that doesn’t mean it’s too soon to begin thinking of the possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News runs through some of the names he believes could be considered for the job, including interim skipper Don Wakamatsu. There are plenty of notable names contemplated in the post, so Texas fans will want to give it a full read and reach their own conclusions on the right path for the organization to take.

Astros, Round Rock Express Announce Triple-A Affiliate Agreement

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THURSDAY: The organizations have announced a four-year player development contract.

TUESDAY: The Triple-A Round Rock franchise has scheduled a press conference on Thursday night. While there’s still no official word, every indication has been that the Astros will be moving their top affiliate to Round Rock. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those to tweet that the Houston organization will indeed be formalizing an arrangement to bring its highest-level minor-leaguers into the state of Texas.

Previously, of course, both of these outfits had alternative affiliations. The Rangers had utilized Round Rock for eight seasons, but now find themselves among three MLB teams and three Triple-A sites still engaged in match-up negotiations. And the ’Stros had spent four seasons with the Fresno Grizzlies, who are now looking for a new mate.

Though the Astros-Round Rock connection wasn’t inevitable, it certainly long stood out as a strong possibility. The Triple-A outfit is, after all, owned by the Ryan family. Legendary hurler Nolan Ryan, whose nickname on the mound inspired the club’s “Express” moniker, is presently an executive advisor to the Astros. His son, Astros president of business operations Reid Ryan, is another fellow owner of the minor-league club. Both rank high atop the Houston org chart.

Thus, Round Rock CEO Reese Ryan (son of Nolan and brother of Reid) was acknowledging the obvious yesterday when he said an agreement between these organizations was an “absolute no-brainer.” (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26, on Twitter.) Details of the new pact remain to be announced.

AL West Notes: Manaea, Keuchel, Felix

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There’s a bit of surprisingly good news for an Athletics team that has weathered a withering run of injuries to young pitchers. As MLB.com’s Jane Lee was among those to report (Twitter links), the Oakland organization says it was actually rather encouraged by the outcome of Sean Manaea’s shoulder procedure yesterday. Though the team likely won’t be able to rely on him as a contributor in 2019, it seems there’s some hope that Manaea could be ready to return late in the season. And the long-term outlook is generally good, which is particularly promising for a hurler who is only just reaching arbitration eligibility.

More from some other prominent AL West hurlers …

  • Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel is headed for free agency in less than two months, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to think about it. As Mark Berman of FOX 26 was among those to convey (video link on Twitter), the lefty says he isn’t interested in pondering his future, preferring instead to “enjoy this team and this year.” That’s surely a sensible position to take for a variety of reasons. The 30-year-old and his teammates are, after all, trying to ramp up for a second consecutive World Series run. And he can best increase his market options and earning power by continuing to throw the ball well. Through 196 2/3 solid frames this year, Keuchel carries a 3.71 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 53.3% groundball rate. That last figure, while still strong, is well under Keuchel’s established levels, though he is compensating in some regards by holding opposing hitters to less home runs (11.2% HR/FB, 0.78 HR/9) than he has typically.
  • The Mariners shouldn’t worry about the $27MM they owe Felix Hernandez in deciding his future with the club, veteran journalist Bob Dutton writes on the KLAY 1180 blog. Simply put, that’s a sunk cost. And Dutton says the M’s ought to ignore it — at least, perhaps, unless they are able to arrange some kind of trade scenario utilizing the contract. That’s not to say that the end ought to come before the start of the 2019 season, but Dutton argues it’s not a possibility the organization should shy from considering.

The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018

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Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!

This is how it works:

  • Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
  • Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
  • A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
  • The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.

A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.

But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.

You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors).  Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.

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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.

Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.

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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.

The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.

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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto’s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.

Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.

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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.

The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.

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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.

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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.

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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.

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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.

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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.

After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,”  he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.

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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.

While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.

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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart

The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.

Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).

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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.

Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.

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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.

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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A.  It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.

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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.

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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.

The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.

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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.

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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.

In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.

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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).

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Power Ranking Leaders By Level

Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays

Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies

High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox

Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets

Rookie 
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres

Show all

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