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Front Office Originals

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | October 25, 2024 at 10:59pm CDT

The Pirates were 54-52 on August 3 before a ten-game losing streak tanked their hopes of contention, and the Bucs ultimately finished with the same 76-86 record as they had in 2023.  Amidst some larger questions about how well the rebuild is progressing, there will be a clear focus on upgrading the lineup this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF: $88MM through 2030 (includes $2M buyout of $20MM club option for 2031)
  • Mitch Keller, SP: $69.5MM through 2028
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: $43MM through 2029 (includes $6MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2030)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa, IF: $7.5MM through 2025 (Blue Jays covering roughly $1.22MM as per the terms of their July 2024 trade)

2025 financial commitments: $41.5MM
Total future commitments: $208MM

Option Decisions

  • Marco Gonzales, SP: $15MM club option, no buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Dennis Santana (4.126): $1.8MM
  • David Bednar (4.076): $6.6MM
  • Ben Heller (3.165): $1MM
  • Connor Joe (3.136): $3.2MM
  • Johan Oviedo (3.079): $1.5MM
  • Bryan De La Cruz (3.056): $4MM
  • Joey Bart (3.020): $1.8MM
  • Colin Holderman (2.144): $1.4MM
  • Bailey Falter (2.138): $2.8MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Joe, De La Cruz, Heller

Free Agents

  • Andrew McCutchen, Aroldis Chapman, Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Borucki, Jalen Beeks

Paul Skenes lived up to the hype, wowing the baseball world with a 1.99 ERA over 133 innings and looking all the world like a franchise player.  Though he was somewhat overshadowed by Skenes and spent almost eight weeks on the injured list due to a lat strain, Jared Jones also had an impressive rookie season.  Behind these two star rookies, Mitch Keller was his usual solid self, Bailey Falter pitched well in his first full season as a Pirate, and Luis Ortiz had a lot of success after moving from the bullpen back into the rotation at midseason.

Since Marco Gonzales' club option won't be exercised, this group stands as the Pirates' provisional starting five heading into Spring Training.  However, Johan Oviedo will also be healthy after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Down on the farm, top-100 prospects Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft are all knocking on the door for their MLB debuts, and other pitching prospects like Mike Burrows (who did toss his first 3 1/3 big league innings in 2024), Hunter Barco, and Anthony Solometo aren't far behind.

In short, Pittsburgh might soon become Pitch-burgh, with all of these young, controllable, and (except for Keller) inexpensive arms either in the majors or coming up the pipeline.  Developing this much promising starting pitching is no small thing, and with Skenes leading the way, general manager Ben Cherington can certainly point to the Pirates' rotation as the key to the team's rebuilding efforts.

However, this rebuild has now resulted in six straight losing seasons, with the last five coming under Cherington's watch.  While nobody expected Rome to be built in a day, the last two years have shown just enough promise to leave Pittsburgh fans disappointed when things fizzled out, and left wondering when exactly the Bucs will be turning the corner towards real contention.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Membership Pittsburgh Pirates

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | October 25, 2024 at 12:07pm CDT

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Jarred Kelenic, rotation trade candidates, a Luis Arraez extension, the Blue Jays' infield, where the Nationals can look for a middle-of-the-order bat, contract projections for Juan Soto and Max Fried, a World Series prediction and much more!

 

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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Darragh McDonald | October 24, 2024 at 11:00am CDT

What was supposed to be a transitional year for the Mets turned into a Cinderella campaign. They got stronger as the season went along and snuck into the playoffs, eventually reaching the NLCS. Now, they are set to lose a huge batch of players to free agency. That gives them plenty of holes to fill but a massive amount of spending capacity, meaning just about anything is possible this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $224MM through 2031 ($5MM deferred annually)
  • Brandon Nimmo, OF: $121.5MM through 2030
  • Edwin Díaz, RHP: $55.5MM through 2027 (includes buy-out on '28 club option; Diaz can opt-out after '25; some money deferred)
  • Kodai Senga, RHP: $42MM through 2027 (deal includes conditional opt-out after '25 and conditional club option for '28)
  • Jeff McNeil, IF/OF: $33.5MM through 2026 (includes buyout on '27 club option)
  • Starling Marte, OF: $19.5MM through 2025

Option Decisions

  • Sean Manaea, LHP: $13.5MM player option
  • Phil Maton, RHP $7.75MM club option with $250K buyout

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Manaea opts out and Maton is bought out): $119.25MM
Total future commitments (assuming Manaea opts out and Maton is bought out): $496.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Paul Blackburn (5.018): $4.4MM
  • Luis Torrens (4.105): $1.1MM
  • Tyrone Taylor (4.093): $2.9MM
  • David Peterson (4.089): $4.4MM
  • Alex Young (4.085): $1.4MM
  • DJ Stewart (3.144): $1.7MM
  • Sean Reid-Foley (3.133): $900K
  • Tylor Megill (3.031): $2.1MM

Non-tender candidates: Blackburn, Torrens, Young, Stewart, Reid-Foley

Free Agents

  • Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias

David Stearns was hired to be the president of baseball operations just as the 2023 season was winding down. That was a disappointing year for the Mets, as they had raised hopes with a strong 2022 season and then spent big in the offseason. But things fell apart and they ended up selling at the 2023 deadline, including sending out future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Scherzer indicated to reporters that he agreed to be traded to the Rangers because he was told that 2024 would be "a kind of transitory year" for the Mets. The first offseason under Stearns seemed to reflect that, as the Mets backed away from the massive spending sprees that characterized previous winters. They did sign ten free agents, but nine of them were one-year deals and the only exception was the two-year deal for Sean Manaea, which came with an opt-out after year one.

The Mets got out to a rough start in 2024, losing their first five games. They had a record of 24-33 at the end of May. But everything turned around from there, as they went 65-40 in the final four months of the season, nabbing a Wild Card spot and going on a nice postseason run. Now the questions are about what's next.

Since the club gave so many short-term deals recently, a huge chunk of their roster is now heading to free agency. There's also some dead money coming off the books. The Scherzer and Verlander pacts are now done, as is their four-year James McCann deal. (He played the final two seasons of that pact in Baltimore, with the Mets covering most of the salary.) Stearns will have plenty of work to do in the next few months, but he should have a massive amount of spending capacity available to him.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Membership New York Mets

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By Nick Deeds | October 23, 2024 at 3:40pm CDT

After finishing the 2023 season with the best record in baseball, the Braves disappointed somewhat in 2024 amid an avalanche of injuries to star players and underwhelming numbers from much of their offensive nucleus. This offseason, they'll need to reshape their rotation as their longest-tenured starter hits free agency while also overhauling their bench mix in hopes of re-capturing their hold over their NL East from the division-champion Phillies and a surging Mets club that made it all the way to Game 6 of the NLCS.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $176MM through 2032 (deal includes club option for 2033)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $110MM through 2029 (deal includes club option for 2030)
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $73MM through 2028 (includes $5MM buyout on 2029 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $64MM through 2030 (includes $5MM buyout on 2031 club option; additional club option for '32)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $60MM through 2028 (deal includes club option for 2029)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. RF: $44MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for '28)
  • Jorge Soler, RF: $32MM through 2026
  • Reynaldo Lopez, RHP: $26MM through 2026 (includes $4MM buyout on 2027 club option)
  • Chris Sale, LHP: $22MM through 2025 (deal includes club option for 2026)
  • Joe Jimenez, RHP: $18MM through 2026
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $16MM through 2025
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $11MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on 2026 club option; additional club option for '27)
  • David Fletcher, INF/RHP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $1.5MM buyout on 2026 club option)
  • Pierce Johnson, RHP: $7.25MM through 2025 (includes $250K buyout on 2026 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, SS: $3MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout on 2026 club option)

Option Decisions

  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $16MM club option with $1MM buyout
  • Travis d'Arnaud, C: $8MM club option with no buyout
  • Aaron Bummer, LHP: $7.25MM club option with $1.25MM buyout (deal also includes $7.5MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
  • Luke Jackson, RHP: $7MM club option with $2MM buyout

2025 financial commitments: $188.75MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $674.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Ramon Laureano (5.159): $6.1MM
  • Cavan Biggio (5.110): $4.3MM
  • Huascar Ynoa (3.117): $825K
  • Jarred Kelenic (2.169): $2.3MM
  • Dylan Lee (2.150): $1.2MM
  • Eli White (2.140): $800K

Non-tender candidates: Laureano, Biggio, Ynoa, White

Free Agents

Max Fried, Charlie Morton, A.J. Minter, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Adam Duvall, Jesse Chavez, John Brebbia

With a number of quality players still under long-term team control, Atlanta remains firmly in the midst of its competitive window despite a disappointing 89-win campaign in 2024. The impending free agency of Max Fried, who has anchored the club's rotation for the past half decade, would perhaps be more concerning for the club's chances of rebounding in 2025 if GM Alex Anthopoulos's front office hadn't already successfully navigated the departures of both MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson in recent years.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Atlanta Braves Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | October 23, 2024 at 11:51am CDT

The Phillies won 87 games in 2022 and lost the World Series, won 90 games in 2023 and lost the NLCS, and then won 95 games and the NL East title this season but lost to the Mets in the NLDS.  This mixture of progression and decline is becoming increasingly frustrating to a team built to win now, though with so much payroll already committed, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might have to get creative in fixing some roster weaknesses.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Trea Turner, SS: $245,454,546 through 2033
  • Bryce Harper, 1B: $170MM through 2031
  • Aaron Nola, SP: $147,428,571 through 2030
  • Zack Wheeler, SP: $126MM through 2027
  • Nick Castellanos, OF: $40MM through 2026
  • Taijuan Walker, SP: $36MM through 2026
  • J.T. Realmuto, C: $23.875M through 2025
  • Cristopher Sanchez, SP: $20.5MM through 2028 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2029; Phillies also have $15MM club option for 2030 with $1MM buyout)
  • Kyle Schwarber, DH: $20MM through 2025
  • Jose Alvarado, RP: $9.5MM through 2025 (includes $500K buyout of $9MM club option for 2026)
  • Matt Strahm, RP: $7.5MM through 2025 (Phillies have $4.5MM club option for 2026)

2025 financial commitments: $220,219,156
Total future commitments: $846,258,117

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
  • Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
  • Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
  • Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
  • Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
  • Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
  • Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
  • Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
  • Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Allard, Hays, Stubbs

Free Agents

  • Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, Spencer Turnbull

The warning lights on the Phillies' season started flashing well before the playoffs, as the team raced out to a dominant 45-19 start before posting a far more modest 50-48 record in its final 98 games.  Such players as Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm cooled off after hot starts, injuries to Suarez and Spencer Turnbull exposed a lack of rotation depth, and the team's trade deadline additions had mixed results.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership Philadelphia Phillies

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By Steve Adams | October 22, 2024 at 3:35pm CDT

The Twins enraged fans by slashing roughly $30MM of payroll after finally breaking their postseason losing streak last year, only to eventually endure one of the worst collapses of any team in recent history. As fans reeled from seeing a club that was a 95% playoff favorite late in the year somehow miss the postseason entirely, ownership announced its intent to explore a sale of the team. It's going to be quite the offseason in Minnesota.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Correa, SS: $128MM through 2028 (contract contains series of four vesting options)
  • Pablo Lopez, RHP: $64.5MM through 2027
  • Byron Buxton, CF: $60MM through 2028
  • Christian Vazquez, C: $10MM through 2025
  • Chris Paddack, RHP: $7.5MM through 2025
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $4MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026)

Guaranteed salary for the 2025 season: $93MM
Total long-term guaranteed money: $274MM

Option Decisions

  • Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout (Rays responsible for buyout)
  • Kyle Farmer, INF: $6.25MM mutual option with $250K buyout
  • Jorge Alcala, RHP: $1.5MM club option with $55K buyout (would remain arb-eligible if declined)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
  • Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout)
  • Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
  • Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
  • Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
  • Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
  • Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
  • Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
  • Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
  • Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
  • Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
  • Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
  • Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Tonkin, Topa, Kirilloff

Free Agents

  • Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, Anthony DeSclafani, Caleb Thielbar

It's been less than two years since the Twins installed Joe Pohlad as their executive chair and control person of the club. The grandson of Carl Pohlad, who purchased the club in 1984, and nephew of his successor Jim Pohlad, Joe took over control of the club not long after turning 40 years old. His first offseason instilled hope of a changing tide in Minnesota. The Twins handed out a franchise-record $200MM contract to keep Carlos Correa in Minnesota. By 2023, they trotted out a club-record payroll approaching $160MM and, for the first time since 2002, won a playoff series.

The good vibes didn't last. As soon as last offseason began, talk of reducing payroll amid uncertainty surrounding the team's television deal emerged. The Twins were one of several teams impacted, but few clubs pulled back spending to the extent of Minnesota. Payroll was slashed by about $30MM -- roughly 20% of the team's total spending the year prior -- leaving the front office to operate on the margins and bring in a series of budget-driven, short-term pickups to address a sweeping slate of needs, most notably the departure of 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray.

Nearly all of the bargain pickups the Twins put together fell short. Carlos Santana proved a successful move, hitting .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers and Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The others flopped.

Free agent relievers Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont struggled and were released midseason. Anthony DeSclafani, who'd missed most of '23 with injury, had season-ending surgery before the season began. Justin Topa, acquired alongside DeSclafani in the trade sending Jorge Polanco to the Mariners, missed almost all season with a knee injury suffered in spring training. Steven Okert, acquired for Nick Gordon, was dropped from the 40-man roster in August. The Twins got a couple prospects of note in that Polanco trade (Gabriel Gonzalez, Darren Bowen), so maybe it'll pan out in the long run, but insofar as the 2024 campaign is concerned, every addition fell short.

Despite those offseason whiffs, the Twins were in contention for much of the season. A good portion of that was spent chasing an upstart Guardians club, but for most of the summer the Twins were given overwhelming odds to reach the postseason. Even on Sept. 5, FanGraphs gave them a 95.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Twins faceplanted as the Tigers surged past them. Joe Pohlad opened the offseason by sidestepping payroll questions but pledging to put a better product on the field (X link via Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic).

Within the next two weeks, major changes had seized headlines in Minnesota. The Twins saw general manager Thad Levine -- No. 2 on their baseball operations hierarchy behind president Derek Falvey -- step down and leave the club. Days later, the Twins sent a press release announcing the Pohlad family's intent to explore a sale of the team.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership Minnesota Twins

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | October 22, 2024 at 10:02am CDT

On the heels of one of the worst seasons in baseball history, the White Sox must stockpile young talent while operating under a cloud of uncertainty about the future of the franchise.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Andrew Benintendi, LF: $47.5MM through 2027
  • Luis Robert Jr., CF: $15MM through 2025, with a $20MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2026 and the same club option for '27

Option Decisions

  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $25MM club option with a $5MM buyout
  • Max Stassi, C: $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Additional Obligations

  • Owe $1.5MM buyout to released RHP John Brebbia
  • Owe $250K buyout to released C Martin Maldonado

2025 financial commitments: $40.75MM
Total future commitments: $71.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Nicky Lopez (5.139): $5.1MM
  • Matt Foster (4.093): $900K
  • Garrett Crochet (4.028): $2.9MM
  • Enyel De Los Santos (4.015): $1.7MM
  • Andrew Vaughn (4.000): $6.4MM
  • Justin Anderson (3.122): $1.1MM
  • Jimmy Lambert (3.108): $1.2MM
  • Gavin Sheets (3.076): $2.6MM
  • Steven Wilson (3.000): $1MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Lopez, Foster, De Los Santos, Vaughn, Anderson, Lambert, Sheets, Wilson

Free Agents

  • Mike Clevinger, Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen, Danny Mendick, Touki Toussaint

While we knew this team would be bad, we didn't realize it would be historically bad.  The 2024 White Sox set the modern record for total losses with 121, and it easily could have been worse had they not surged to win five of their last six games.  Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde were the only glimmers of hope, but the latter was traded and the former seems on his way out.

The Sox fired manager Pedro Grifol on August 8th, with Grady Sizemore serving as interim manager for the remainder of the season.  Sizemore is at least under consideration for the full-time job, but the list of known candidates has also included Donnie Ecker, Will Venable, Clayton McCullough, Danny Lehman, George Lombard, A.J. Ellis, Phil Nevin, Daniel Descalso, and Skip Schumaker.  Grifol was Rick Hahn's hire, so the new manager will be the first chosen by senior vice president/GM Chris Getz.

Beyond the managarial change, existential issues loom over the White Sox.  One is whether longtime owner Jerry Reinsdorf intends to sell the team.  On October 16th, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic reported that Reinsdorf is "open to selling" the team, and furthermore, "is in active discussions with a group led by former big leaguer Dave Stewart."  Stewart's involvement has led to speculation about potentially moving the team to Nashville, given the former pitcher's efforts to bring an MLB team to that city.

The Stewart rumor follows January news of Reinsdorf's aim of getting a new stadium built in a (Chicago) South Loop area called "The 78."  A relocation threat is one of the oldest in the new-stadium playbook, of course, and Reinsdorf successfully leveraged a potential move to St. Petersburg back in 1988 to get the current Guaranteed Rate Field built in Chicago.  Back in 1995, Reinsdorf famously said in reference to his St. Petersburg play in a Cigar Aficionado interview, "A savvy negotiator creates leverage. People had to think we were going to leave Chicago."

Moving from Chicago to St. Petersburg hardly made sense in terms of market size, and the same is true of Nashville now.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Chicago White Sox Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership

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Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By Steve Adams | October 21, 2024 at 6:50pm CDT

Despite significant injuries on the pitching front, the Rays spent much of the season's first half in or on the periphery of the Wild Card chase. The front office took advantage of a seller's market at the deadline even though the club was hovering around .500, bolstering the farm, reducing payroll and setting the stage for what could be a quick turnaround.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $750K buyout of $15MM club option for 2027)
  • Yandy Diaz, 1B: $10MM through 2025 (contract contains $12MM club option for 2026, with no buyout)
  • Pete Fairbanks, RHP: $4.667MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $7MM club option for 2026)
  • Shane McClanahan, LHP: $3.6MM through 2026 (McClanahan is arb-eligible for two more years thereafter)

2025 financial commitment: $27.766MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $40MM

Other Financial Obligations

  • Wander Franco owed $172MM through 2032; Rays unlikely to pay remainder of contract due to abhorrent allegations against Franco and subsequent legal proceedings in Dominican Republic
  • $2MM to Twins for buyout of Manuel Margot's 2025 club option

Option Decisions

  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $10.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (contract also contains $11.5MM club option for 2026 with $500K buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Colin Poche (5.114): $3.4MM
  • Zack Littell (5.043): $4.8MM
  • Tyler Alexander (5.011): $2.8MM
  • Drew Rasmussen (4.111): $2MM
  • Dylan Carlson (4.104): $2.7MM
  • Cole Sulser (4.031): $1MM
  • Taylor Walls (3.092): $1.3MM
  • Garrett Cleavinger (3.060): $1.4MM
  • Ben Rortvedt (3.043): $1.1MM
  • Jose Siri (3.015): $2.3MM
  • Richard Lovelady (3.008): $900K
  • Shane Baz (2.158): $1.9MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Poche, Alexander, Carlson, Sulser, Walls, Lovelady

Free Agents

  • None

As we began this year's Offseason Outlook series, the top focus for the Rays was understandably on the team's roster and reshaping an offense that lacked balance, struggled against righties and was far too whiff-prone. While the series was being written, however, a far broader-reaching issue arose. The awful damage stemming from Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Helene has wrought incalculable, heartbreaking levels of damage on the country's southeast region. The big-picture focus, of course, is on helping those impacted and rebuilding those ravaged communities. In the grand scheme of things, the logistical challenges a natural disaster of this magnitude presents to a baseball team are trivial, at best.

Nonetheless, for the Rays themselves, Hurricane Milton created an unexpected and undeniable challenge the team will have to address. The roof of Tropicana Field was shredded, exposing a stadium interior that does not have a drainage system. It's not yet clear when the facility could return to a serviceable state, but the Rays aren't likely to have their home field available to them to begin the 2025 season. They'll spend as much time and energy this offseason determining where they'll play their home games as they will augmenting their roster. We at MLBTR extend our deepest and most heartfelt condolences to all affected by the tragedy in the southeast.

Turning to the baseball operations side of the offseason, the Rays have a clear picture of what went wrong. Tampa Bay entered the 2024 campaign with an injury-ravaged rotation. Starters Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery), Drew Rasmussen (flexor tendon surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) were set to miss some or all of the 2024 season while recovering from surgery. Former top pitching prospect Shane Baz was finishing off recovery from his own Tommy John procedure, performed late in the 2022 season.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership Tampa Bay Rays

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By Darragh McDonald | October 19, 2024 at 8:18pm CDT

Last offseason, the Brewers lost their manager, traded away their best starting pitcher and lost another to injury. During the season, several more injuries popped up but the club overcame all that adversity to repeat as National League Central champions. They'll now have to overcome a crushing postseason loss, the likely departure of their shortstop and declining broadcast revenue.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $110.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout on '29 mutual option; deal to be paid out through '42 due to deferrals)
  • Jackson Chourio, OF: $78MM through 2031 (including $2MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Aaron Ashby, LHP: $17.25MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Brandon Woodruff, RHP: $15MM through 2025 (including $10MM buyout on '26 mutual option)

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Owe Reds $1MM* as part of Frankie Montas/Jakob Junis trade ("~$1M" per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com on X)

Option Decisions

  • 1B Rhys Hoskins has $18MM player option for 2025 with $4MM buyout, deal also has $18MM mutual option for 2026 with $4MM buyout
  • Team, RHP Frankie Montas hold $20MM mutual option with $2MM buyout
  • Team, LHP Wade Miley hold $12MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout
  • Team holds $10.5MM club option on RHP Devin Williams with a $250K buyout (Williams can be retained via arbitration even if option is declined)
  • Team, C Gary Sánchez hold $11MM mutual option with $4MM buyout
  • Team holds $5.5MM club option on RHP Colin Rea with $1MM buyout
  • Team holds $8MM club option on RHP Freddy Peralta with $1.5MM buyout

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $92.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $265MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Hoby Milner (5.068): $2.7MM
  • Aaron Civale (5.058): $8MM
  • Devin Williams (5.056): $7.7MM (Brewers hold $10.5MM club option/$250K buyout)
  • Jake Bauers (4.084): $2.3MM
  • Bryse Wilson (4.036): $1.5MM
  • Joel Payamps (4.027): $2.8MM
  • Eric Haase (3.159): $1.8MM
  • William Conteras (3.112): $7.6MM
  • Nick Mears (3.022): $900K
  • Trevor Megill (3.002): $2MM

Non-tender candidates: Bauers, Wilson, Haase

Free Agents

  • Willy Adames, Joe Ross

The Brewers have faced a lot of challenges in the past year. Manager Craig Counsell seemed intent on pushing forward the market for managers, willing to go from Milwaukee to the highest bidder. For a small-market club like the Brewers, they weren't going to get drawn into a bidding war to keep him, so he went to the division rival Cubs as Milwaukee gave his old job to Pat Murphy. Brandon Woodruff required shoulder surgery about this time last year, which put him on ice for all of 2024. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles in February.

Some of that was self-imposed, in a sense, but also a reflection of the club's perpetual financial situation. As one of the lower-spending clubs, they often trade their best players just before they get to free agency, with Burnes just the most recent example. That's not to say they were forced to do it, but it's understandable why they make such moves. The trade return is usually much more appealing than holding the player all the way until free agency and, in a best-case scenario, recouping draft compensation after the player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

All of that was before the season even started. Once spring training began, the challenges mounted. Closer Devin Williams was diagnosed with back fractures in March, setting him up to miss roughly the first half of the season. Wade Miley required Tommy John surgery in May, ending his season prematurely. Robert Gasser, called up to help cover for Miley, required his own UCL surgery in June. Christian Yelich didn't play after July 23 due to his lingering back problems, undergoing season-ending surgery in August.

Despite all of that, the Brewers managed to take the division, but fresh challenges now lie ahead. Shortstop Willy Adames is slated to become a free agent, a notable subtraction from their roster. Williams seems likely to be this year's candidate for a trade before reaching free agency, with general manager Matt Arnold recently admitting that the club will have to be "open-minded" about the possibility.

Meanwhile, the club will no longer have a broadcast relationship with Bally Sports/Diamond Sports Group. Their deal with Diamond ended in 2024 and they will now have Major League Baseball handling their broadcasts in direct-to-consumer fashion. Such an arrangement could be beneficial in the long run with the decay of the cable model but it's likely to lead to less revenue in the short term, which could further squeeze a club that always has payroll concerns.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Membership Milwaukee Brewers

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Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

By Darragh McDonald | October 19, 2024 at 10:07am CDT

The 2024 Royals added 30 wins relative to the prior season, going from 56 to 86 and sneaking into the playoffs for the first time since their World Series win in 2015. Now they'll go into the winter as clear contenders for the first time in a while, but still with lots of uncertainty ahead.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bobby Witt Jr., SS: $279MM through 2034 (Final four years are annual player options; Royals can trigger three-year club option for '35-'37 if Witt triggers all player options)
  • Seth Lugo, RHP: $30MM through 2026 ('26 is $15MM player option)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $24MM through 2025 (including $2MM buyout on '26 club option; $2MM of '25 salary is deferred)

Other Financial Commitments

  • Owe Hunter Dozier $1MM buyout on 2025 club option

Option Decisions

  • Michael Wacha, RHP: $16MM player option
  • Hunter Renfroe, OF: $7.5MM player option
  • Chris Stratton, RHP: $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)
  • Team, IF/OF Adam Frazier hold $8.5MM mutual option ($2.5MM buyout)

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Renfroe and Stratton are the only two options triggered): $61.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Renfroe and Stratton are the only two options triggered): $348.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Josh Taylor (5.121): $1.1MM
  • Hunter Harvey (5.047): $3.9MM
  • Brady Singer (4.156): $8.8MM
  • Kris Bubic (4.135): $2.8MM
  • Kyle Wright (4.062): $1.8MM
  • John Schreiber (4.027): $2MM
  • Carlos Hernández (3.099): $1.2MM
  • Kyle Isbel (3.043): $1.7MM
  • MJ Melendez (2.153): $2.5MM
  • Daniel Lynch IV (2.136): 1.1MM

Non-tender candidates: Taylor, Harvey, Hernández, Melendez

Free Agents

  • Will Smith, Michael Lorenzen, Tommy Pham, Garrett Hampson, Paul DeJong, Robbie Grossman, Yuli Gurriel

Coming into 2024, the Royals were an afterthought for many observers. They had spent close to a decade in the wilderness, finishing at .500 or below in each season from 2016 to 2023. But they managed to shoot back into contention this year and secure a postseason berth, mostly thanks to their starting pitching.

The Kansas City rotation had a 3.55 earned run average this year, second only to the Mariners. An aggressive offseason a year ago played a part in that, as the Royals were one of the more active teams last winter. Their two biggest free agent deals were for starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, both of which were big wins for the club this year. Lugo made 33 starts and tossed over 200 innings with a flat ERA of 3.00, which will surely lead to some Cy Young votes. Wacha got to 29 starts and 166 2/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA.

They also gave a massive extension to Bobby Witt Jr., who went on to have an MVP caliber season in 2024. Those moves and others pushed the payroll to $115MM, per Cot's Baseball Contracts, getting into nine-figure territory for the first time since their last competitive window closed. It's unclear whether they plan to maintain that level of spending, increase it or decrease it.

It was speculated by some that the free agent signings and the Witt extension last winter were an attempt by owner John Sherman to build some public goodwill that would help him secure public money for a new stadium. But in April, voters in Jackson County, Missouri rejected a sales tax measure that would have provided funding for a new stadium for the Royals as well as upgrades for Arrowhead Stadium, home of the NFL's Chiefs.

There's also the broadcast revenue situation to consider. The Royals were one of the clubs with Bally Sports in 2024 but they may not be able to continue that relationship going forward. Diamond Sports Group, the company that has owned Bally for years, has been in bankruptcy for almost two years now and is planning to significantly scale back its MLB operations in 2025. As of a few weeks ago, they were reportedly planning to cut ties with 11 of the 12 clubs they broadcasted in 2024, with the Royals one of the many on the chopping block. It's possible that a new deal could be worked out, but that would come with lower fees than the club had received previously. The Royals reportedly received $45MM as part of their deal with Diamond as recently as 2022.

Even though the club just had a strong season and got some playoff revenue, will Sherman have less interest in throwing money at the team now that the stadium situation is in no man's land and there's likely less TV money coming in?

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Kansas City Royals Membership

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