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Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration With Darwin Barney, Ezequiel Carrera

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6:24pm: Outfielder Ezequiel Carrera has also settled with the Jays, per Heyman (via Twitter). He’ll receive $1,162,500 — just shy of his $1.2MM projection.

6:08pm: The Blue Jays have settled on a contract figure with infielder Darwin Barney, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.8875MM in 2017.

Once the regular second baseman for the Cubs, Barney had steadily seen his MLB opportunities fall over the last 2014 and 2015 seasons. But after a pit stop with the Dodgers, the 31-year-old has found a home with Toronto after re-signing with the organization for one year and $1.05MM last winter. He appeared in over 100 games in 2016, slashing .369/.322/.373 over 306 plate appearances while providing value with the glove.

Now in his final year of arbitration eligibility, Barney will earn quite a bit more than the $1.6MM that MLBTR’s arbitration model projected. That’s likely because his camp could have argued for a higher starting point — namely, his $2.525MM arb salary from 2015 — upon which to add a raise.

Free Agent Notes: Bautista, Blue Jays, Braves, Tigers, Indians

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Speculation about Jose Bautista ultimately signing a one-year deal is growing throughout the industry, writes Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. The Blue Jays were recently said to be in active talks with Bautista, and Nicholson-Smith notes that he spoke with execs from two other clubs that considered Bautista the exact type of player that could end up as a significant bargain if he’s had on a one-year pact. Nicholson-Smith adds that there’s still a belief in the industry that Toronto would be perfectly happy to let Bautista depart, sign elsewhere, and collect a compensatory draft pick. However, the Jays do still need two corner outfielders, and Bautista is a known commodity among the fans, in the clubhouse and on the field for Toronto.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • Nicholson-Smith also reports that the Blue Jays are continuing to hunt for a backup catcher after seeing one target, Bobby Wilson, sign a minor league contract with the Dodgers. Per Nicholson-Smith, the Blue Jays wanted to sign the 33-year-old Wilson, but he elected to sign with the Dodgers after Toronto declined to offer his camp any assurances that additional catchers would not be pursued. Among the options still on the market are Chris Iannetta, Nick Hundley, Kurt Suzuki and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, to name a few.
  • The Braves are still open to adding a bench bat despite having a full 40-man roster at the moment, and both Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur are possibilities, per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). This would mark the third straight year in which the Braves signed Johnson as a free agent and his fourth overall stint with the team that originally drafted him, if an agreement is ultimately reached. It’d also represent the third stint with the Braves for Francoeur and the second consecutive offseason in which he inked a deal with Atlanta.
  • The Tigers are known to be on the lookout for some help in center field, but they didn’t show interest in Ben Revere before he signed with the Angels and haven’t had any serious discussions with Austin Jackson about a return to Detroit, reports MLB.com’s Jason Beck. Last week, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers are looking for a center field option that would cost around $2MM. Jackson could fit that bill after missing the last three months of the 2016 season with a knee injury, though Beck’s report paints that as unlikely. Last week, I took a look at a few other options the Tigers could consider as well.
  • Any further additions made by the Indians this winter seem likely to be low-cost in nature following the signing of Edwin Encarnacion. Cleveland GM Mike Chernoff implied to Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal that the team’s remaining resources are somewhat limited. “Obviously with a commitment like this, we couldn’t bring either [Mike Napoli] or [Rajai Davis] back at the dollars they would have cost,” said Chernoff. “Raj gave us a huge amount last year, too. You could see him potentially being a fit again with the role he had last year. I think we have a lot of internal pieces that can fill some of those spots.” Davis signed a one-year, $6MM deal with Oakland last week, so Chernoff’s suggestion that he was too expensive could well signal that any final additions will be rather minimal in nature. As Lewis further notes, that could lead to a bit less depth in the outfield and on other areas of the roster than Cleveland brass would otherwise prefer.

Market Notes: Jays, Bruce, A’s, Plouffe, Dozier, Bautista, Trumbo, Lefty Relievers, Lewis

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that the Blue Jays may have misread the market for power bats this winter. In the case of Toronto, he suggests, the team ought to have been more patient with Edwin Encarnacion. By moving quickly to give a three-year deal to Kendrys Morales after Encarnacion declined to take the team’s early-offseason offer, the Jays may have spent much more than necessary to land a player of Morales’s quality while also tying their hands on Encarnacion, who ended up signing for one year and $20MM less than Toronto had reportedly offered.

  • The Mets, too, might have erred in their approach on Jay Bruce. He now seems a superfluous piece after the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes, and Rosenthal says that he expects New York will need to pay down part of Bruce’s $13MM salary to deal him. The team picked up that option in large part to insure against the loss of Cespedes; a team source notes that insurance “doesn’t come for free,” and Rosenthal notes that the decision may have improved their bargaining position with their star free agent. But perhaps a greater recognition of the flood of sluggers would have led the team to choose an alternate path to protecting itself in the event of a departure of Cespedes.
  • As they continue to look to bolster their lineup, the Athletics are showing interest in free-agent third baseman Trevor Plouffe, per Rosenthal. He’d presumably be a value-focused addition to the overall mix at third and first base. Of course, Oakland is also said to be looking at Mark Trumbo, so it seems the organization is still casting a fairly wide net.
  • While there has been a suggestion that the Dodgers won’t form a package around Jose De Leon to pry Brian Dozier from the Twins, preferring instead to pursue a one-for-one deal, Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles is “willing to include other prospects” to get something done. Of course, it could well be that the issue isn’t so much the inclusion of some other pre-MLB players — surely, the Dodgers could find some expendable pieces to part with — so much as the question whether any are seen by Minnesota as adding significant value.
  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides a lengthy list of the winners and losers in the open-market action to date, though that can still change with a lot of free agents left and perhaps some trades still to be swung. As for some of those still-unsigned open-market players, Heyman provides a few notes. Jose Bautista’s representatives “circled back” to the Orioles to gauge interest, but it still seems that Baltimore isn’t interested. And the Blue Jays “do not seem anxious” to strike a deal with the veteran. Meanwhile, the O’s remain involved on Trumbo.
  • Heyman further notes that there remains robust demand for left-handed relievers. He lists the Mets, Yankees, Indians, and Blue Jays as teams still looking at southpaws. Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, Travis Wood, and J.P. Howell are among the established left-handed options that remain available.
  • It’s unlikely that the Rangers will bring back veteran righty Colby Lewis, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Though “the door’s open,” per GM Jon Daniels, he adds that he doesn’t “foresee anything happening at this point” with Lewis. Texas would be interested only in a minor-league arrangement, it seems, due in part to questions over Lewis’s health outlook.

Blue Jays Sign Gavin Floyd To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays announced that they’ve re-signed right-hander Gavin Floyd to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.

Floyd, 34 later this month, spent the 2016 campaign with the Jays and pitched reasonably well when healthy, logging a 4.06 earned run average with a 30-to-8 K/BB ratio in 31 innings out of the Toronto bullpen. His season, however, came to an end in late June when he hit the disabled list with a shoulder injury that later proved to be a partially torn lat muscle.

Floyd has been plagued by persistent arm issues since undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2013, twice fracturing the olecranon bone in his elbow in addition to his 2016 shoulder woes, but he’s steadfastly remained committed to getting back on a big league mound. He’s posted a 3.10 ERA in 98 2/3 innings since undergoing Tommy John, so the talent is clearly still there. The question with Floyd is simply one of whether his arm can hold up for the duration of a Major League season, even working in short relief stints. Certainly, it would seem that Toronto president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins are firm believers in Floyd’s abilities, as they’ve been a part of signing him in each of the past three offseasons (with Cleveland prior to the 2015 season and with the Jays last winter).

Market Notes: Quintana, Bautista, Yankees, Hammel, Reds, Marlins

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If a trade partner is to be found for lefty Jose Quintana, the White Sox hope to complete the deal prior to the start of Spring Training, Buster Olney of ESPN.com notes as part of his column today (Insider link). That’s not particularly surprising, perhaps, as most pre-season swaps are wrapped up when camp opens. What’s interesting, though, is that Olney seemingly hints that the club is motivated to get a deal done now, though he does note that the organization ought to have no trouble finding a suitor at the trade deadline.

  • The Blue Jays aren’t particularly inclined to bring back veteran free agent Jose Bautista, Olney further suggests. We have heard reports of late that there is at least some chatter between the sides, and also that Bautista is amenable to taking a one-year deal (albeit at a fairly lofty salary). But we’ve seen other indications that Toronto is looking at other angles — see here, for instance — and Olney’s note adds to that side of the reporting.
  • The Yankees remain engaged on Quintana and other pitchers even as the organization says it is content with its pitching mix, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports. “We benefited from [the high prospect costs to swing a trade] at the Trade Deadline, but now, obviously, on the acquisition side of it, it’s very costly to do business as well,” says GM Brian Cashman. “We’ll continue to evaluate it and stay engaged, but we’re prepared to go to Spring Training with the team we have currently if need be.”
  • Free-agent righty Jason Hammel has drawn at least some interest from the Yankees, Hoch adds. He’d surely welcome that pursuit given the somewhat surprising lack of action in his market after a solid 2016 season. As things stand, New York will presumably round out its rotation through some kind of camp battle. Pitchers such as Chad Green, Bryan Mitchell, Adam Warren, Luis Severino, and Luis Cessa could factor in the competition; Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource currently projects Green and Mitchell to take rotation jobs.
  • While the Reds just announced a deal with righty Drew Storen, they are still in the market for relievers, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Also seeking pen arms are the Brewers and Athletics, per the report. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon adds that Cincinnati is additionally looking at the market for a veteran starter as well as some catching depth, so there may yet be some more additions on the horizon.
  • The Marlins are still eyeing bench pieces as they look to finish off an active winter. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro looks at a few possibilities for the club, most of whom would represent right-handed-hitting complements for first baseman Justin Bour. (While the Fish say they’re inclined to let him face more lefties, his minimal experience against them has not gone well.) It’s not specifically apparent just who Miami is actually interested in pursuing, but Frisaro does note that Jeff Francoeur — who spent time with the organization late in 2016 — would be amenable to trying out first base.

Aaron Sanchez Hires Boras Corporation

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Blue Jays righty Aaron Sanchez has changed representation, hiring the Boras Corporation as his new agency, according to Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae (via Twitter).

Sanchez, 24, is due to earn just over the league minimum for the coming season, as he’ll fall shy of Super Two eligibility. But he’s set to reach arbitration next fall, and could well end up in search of a big number through the arb process if he can match his stellar 2016 season.

Of course, the talented youngster could also theoretically represent an extension candidate before he reaches his third year of MLB service. Scott Boras is notoriously hesitant to sell his client’s free-agent-eligible campaigns to lock in guarantees, though there certainly have been exceptions.

Among his many other clients, Boras reps just-extended Nationals’ pitcher Stephen Strasburg, who signed his deal in the final season before he’d have reached the open market. Sanchez will join an interesting stable of young arms with the Boras Corp., including Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers Jr., James Paxton, Carlos Rodon, and Julio Urias. Among Sanchez’s recent teammates, only Franklin Morales and Ezequiel Carrera share the same agency.

Perhaps the chief question for Sanchez, though, isn’t a matter of talent or his contract situation — at least, not directly. Instead, it’s how he’ll bounce back after tallying 203 2/3 innings (including the postseason) in his first full year as a major league starter. Sanchez had spun just 102 frames in 2015, when he spent most of the year working from the Jays’ bullpen, and had never before exceeded 133 1/3 innings (which he reached in 2014) over a pro season.

There’s plenty of reason for optimism for Sanchez, who finished seventh in the American League Cy Young voting at the end of the ’16 season. He logged a 3.00 ERA over his 30 starts, posting 7.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 while allowing just 161 hits. Though his four-pitch mix (led by two mid-nineties fastball varieties) hasn’t produced spectacular whiff rates (8.2% in 2016), Sanchez generated a 54.5% groundball rate.

There certainly are some questions about Sanchez as a pitcher, of course, even beyond the arm health. It remains to be seen whether he will continue to maintain an exceedingly low batting average on balls in play; he sat at .267 last year, but wasn’t particularly dominant in terms of the type of contact he allowed. (He permitted 30.3% hard contact, just less than league average; see here for a late-season discussion of exit velocities involving Sanchez.) He has shown some growth in the swinging-strike department, but it’s not yet clear if he can continue to move the needle in that regard. And then there’s the matter of platoon splits, which bears watching. Sanchez wasn’t hurt much by lefties last year, perhaps because they put up only a .255 BABIP against him, but he was much more prone to walk or surrender a dinger to a southpaw hitter.

AL Notes: Rajai, Gardner, Blue Jays, Dozier, Red Sox

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Here’s the latest from around the American League…

  • Money could prevent a reunion between Rajai Davis and the Indians, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  The Tribe would like to bring back the veteran outfielder, though there isn’t any payroll space after Cleveland went above and beyond their financial comfort zone to land Edwin Encarnacion.  Pluto thinks Davis could only come back to the Tribe if he fails to drum up enough interest from other teams, though that seems unlikely given his still-excellent baserunning.  It’s worth noting that the Orioles are the only team known to have interest in Davis’ services this winter, so if his market continues to be quiet, it wouldn’t seem to be out of the question that Davis returns to Cleveland next year.
  • In a recent piece about the Blue Jays and Jose Bautista, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star cites Brett Gardner as one of multiple “trade avenues to explore” for the Jays before they would considering re-signing Bautista.  The Yankees are known to have received some interest in Gardner this winter, and this is the first time Toronto has been linked to the veteran, though Griffin’s comment could imply more a due-diligence type of a check-in on the Blue Jays’ part rather than a solid interest.  Gardner’s overall hitting numbers declined in 2016, though he still checks a lot of boxes for the Jays as a good on-base threat and leadoff man, a left-handed hitter and an excellent baserunner and defensive left fielder.  The 33-year-old is owed $25MM in guaranteed salary over the next two seasons.  A complicating factor, of course, could be the fact that the two teams are division rivals — the Blue Jays and Yankees haven’t collaborated on a trade since 2002.
  • The Twins have some leverage in shopping Brian Dozier since, as the slugging second baseman is under contract for two more affordable years, Minnesota can simply keep Dozier in the fold if it can’t find an acceptable trade offer for him this winter.  In his latest subscription-only column, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney warns that waiting to find a perfect deal for Dozier is something of a risk for the Twins, as Dozier’s value may never be higher than it is right now.  Dozier is prone to extended slumps (he hit very poorly in the last two months of the 2015 season and in the first two months of the 2016 season) that could lower his trade value if he gets off to another slow start.
  • Also from Olney, he opines that “it seems inevitable” that the Red Sox will be looking for (ironically) a Clay Buchholz-like pitcher in trade talks, if not necessarily re-acquiring Buchholz himself from the Phillies.  Boston dealt Buchholz two weeks ago in order to get his salary off the books for luxury tax purposes and to alleviate a seeming rotation surplus.  With Eduardo Rodriguez suffering another (apparently minor) injury to his surgically-repaired right knee and Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz also carrying injury concerns from last year, there are certainly some questions about the last two spots in the Red Sox rotation.

3 Remaining Needs: American League East

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To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.

Jeff Todd kicked off the series with a look at the NL West, and now we’ll move across the continent and across leagues to the AL East, starting with the division champion Red Sox and moving in order of last year’s standings.  Here are three needs (of varying importance) for each team in the division:

Boston Red Sox

  1. Third Base: Boston is hoping that a healthy and in-shape Pablo Sandoval can get back to his old Giants form, though that’s no small risk given Sandoval’s disastrous 2015-16 seasons.  With Travis Shaw off to Milwaukee, the Sox are left with Brock Holt and Josh Rutledge as the primary third base backup options on the MLB roster.  The Red Sox didn’t hesitate to bench Sandoval after he struggled in Spring Training last year, so if he has another rough spring, the Sox could start looking for a reliable everyday option at the hot corner.
  2. Bench Depth: While the Red Sox have several backup options on the 25-man roster or high minors, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford recently pointed out that the team is rather lacking in proven depth pieces, and might not be able to handle an injury to one or two regulars.  Adding the likes of an Adam Rosales or Trevor Plouffe (names cited as Bradford as players of interest for the Sox) would help in this regard.
  3. Left-Handed Reliever: The club’s decision to tender a contract to Fernando Abad was something of a surprise, given how poorly Abad fared after joining the Red Sox last summer.  Robbie Ross is the primary lefty in Boston’s bullpen and while it appears the Sox feel Abad will get back on track, it wouldn’t hurt to find another southpaw.  Admittedly, this is a pretty borderline “need” on what is a pretty stacked Boston roster — the Sox could potentially find another lefty reliever internally in the form of Roenis Elias, Brian Johnson, Henry Owens or perhaps even one of Eduardo Rodriguez or Drew Pomeranz (if Steven Wright reclaims a rotation spot).

Toronto Blue Jays

  1. Corner Outfield: With Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders both in free agency, the Jays are left with Melvin Upton Jr., Ezequiel Carrera, new acquisition Steve Pearce and Dalton Pompey as the candidates for both left and right field.  You could argue that this counts as two needs, though the Blue Jays can juggle their internal options at one corner spot and focus on acquiring an everyday outfielder to handle the other position.
  2. Left-Handed Reliever: Southpaw bullpen depth has been a long-standing need for the Jays, who were short on lefties even before Brett Cecil signed with the Cardinals.  The team has been linked to several left-handed relievers in free agency, though given the big contracts scored by Cecil and other lefties this winter, landing one of those notable arms won’t be cheap.  Toronto has added left-handers T.J. House, Brett Oberholtzer and Jeff Beliveau to minor league deals this winter, though a more proven southpaw reliever would certainly be preferred.
  3. Right-Handed Reliever: No reason to stop at just southpaws, as the Jays’ relief corps is pretty thin behind Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli and Joe Biagini, and it could get thinner if the Jays explore stretching Biagini out as rotation depth.  The Jays are looking to duplicate their success with Biagini in another Rule 5 draft pick (Glenn Sparkman) and have a few new faces added in the minors to join their in-house bullpen options.  As with the lefties, however, adding an experienced, reliable arm would go a long way to solidifying the bullpen.

Baltimore Orioles

  1. Right Field: With a Hyun Soo Kim/Joey Rickard platoon planned for left field, the Orioles have considered several free agents and trade targets for the right field slot.  This doesn’t necessarily have to be an everyday option, as the O’s could form another platoon out of a new addition and one of Christian Walker, Aneury Tavarez, Adam Walker or Dariel Alvarez.  With rookie Trey Mancini in line for a significant amount of DH at-bats, however, the Orioles may hesitate at allotting quite so much playing time to inexperienced youngsters.
  2. Designated Hitter: While the O’s are high on Mancini, it makes sense to add a veteran who can at least serve as a platoon partner should Mancini not be ready for prime time.  Baltimore has been linked to free agents like Chris Carter or Pedro Alvarez for DH duties, though ideally, Mancini’s DH partner would also be able to handle playing a corner outfield role, so two needs could be addressed at once.
  3. Left-Handed Hitter: If the Orioles do add another bat, some left-handed pop would be preferable to add balance.  Kim and Chris Davis are the only left-handed hitters projected to get regular playing time in the current Baltimore lineup.

New York Yankees

  1. Starting Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and C.C. Sabathia aren’t the most rock-solid top three in the world, though they’re locked in atop the Yankees rotation.  That leaves Luis Severino, Chad Green, Luis Cessa, Bryan Mitchell and perhaps Adam Warren battling for those last two spots.  There isn’t a lot of experience in that group, and GM Brian Cashman has downplayed the idea of acquiring another starter (though the Yankees have also been linked to Jose Quintana in some trade rumors).  As much as the Yankees want to see what they have in their young arms, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a low-cost, innings-eating veteran to compete for a rotation job in Spring Training.
  2. Left-Handed Reliever: Aroldis Chapman will close and Tommy Layne is a classic LOOGY, so since Joe Girardi likes to have as many bullpen options as possible, that leaves room for another southpaw.  Chasen Shreve, Richard Bleier and Dietrich Enns are options on the 40-man roster, though since the Yankees have been connected to veterans like Boone Logan or Jerry Blevins on the rumor mill, they could be looking for more experience.
  3. First Base: As in the rotation, the Yankees are committed to young players at first, with Greg Bird penciled in as the starter and Tyler Austin getting some action against lefties (veteran Matt Holliday could also fill in, in a pinch).  While Bird is reportedly recovering well from February 2016 surgery to repair a torn labrum, you have to consider a position a bit of a question mark when the first choice is a player returning from missing an entire season.  It’s very unlikely the Yankees will make a move to address first base before Opening Day, though it could be an area to watch as the season develops if Bird, Austin or Holliday have injury or performance-related setbacks.

Tampa Bay Rays

  1. Starting Rotation: While the Rays already have plenty of starters, what they really “need” is to decide if they’re going to be dealing one of them.  Rumors have been flying all winter about teams looking to acquire one of Tampa’s starters, with Drew Smyly or Alex Cobb perhaps more likely to be on the move due to the Rays’ reportedly enormous asking price for Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi.  What the Rays get in return for one of their arms (if any are dealt) will go a long way towards filling one or both of the remaining needs on this list.
  2. Right-Handed Hitter: Left fielder Corey Dickerson and first baseman Brad Miller are both left-handed bats who struggle against southpaws, so the Rays would be aided by adding a player who can handle one (or both) positions and add some thump from the right side of the plate.
  3. Designated Hitter: This would also be a natural spot for a right-handed bat, as switch-hitter Nick Franklin was only effective against righty pitching last season in part-time action.  A regular DH isn’t necessary since the Rays would like to keep this position open for lineup flexibility — Wilson Ramos will likely require some DH time in the wake of knee surgery, while neither Dickerson or Miller have much defensive value — but the promise of DH at-bats could help the Rays entice a veteran hitter who might be otherwise unenthusiastic about playing on Tropicana Field’s artificial surface.

Blue Jays In Active Discussions With Jose Bautista

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The Blue Jays are engaged in active contract negotiations with Jose Bautista’s representatives, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (on Twitter).

A return to Toronto would certainly make sense for Bautista and makes a fair amount of sense for the Blue Jays as well. The subtraction of Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders from Toronto’s lineup removed quite a bit of offense, and while newcomers Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce will compensate for some of that loss, the Jays still have a pair of question marks in each of their outfield corners. Reports have recently indicated that Bautista is willing to consider one-year proposals coming off an injury-hampered season, though at last check the Jays had yet to offer anything greater than the $17.2MM qualifying offer to Bautista.

The Blue Jays will have to decide exactly how much they can count on Bautista as an everyday outfielder at the age of 36. Defensive metrics have soured on him rapidly in recent years, though he also battled foot and knee injuries in 2016, which certainly may have impacted his defense. Then again, as a 36-year-old that has spent the past eight seasons playing on artificial turf, Bautista may simply be more prone to injury than he was even into his mid-30s, when he averaged 154 games played from 2014-15. That, too, will have to be a factor as the Jays weigh a potential reunion. And while the Blue Jays don’t technically need to forfeit a draft pick by signing Bautista, doing so means that they won’t receive the comp pick they expected when making a qualifying offer, so the team is in essence surrendering a pick in the 30 to 35 range of next year’s draft.

All of those factors, along with Bautista’s deteriorated (but still quite strong) production at the plate in 2016, are part of the calculus being weighed by president Mark Shapiro, GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the Jays’ front office. Bautista slashed .234/.366/.452 with 22 home runs and 24 doubles last year — production that rated 17 percent above the league average (per OPS+) and 22 percent above average (per wRC+) when adjusting for park and league. And, from 2010-15, Bautista was unequivocally one of baseball’s most feared hitters, batting a Herculean .268/.390/.555 (156 OPS+) and averaging 45 homers per 162 games played.

A return to Toronto would give Bautista the opportunity to reestablish some stock in a familiar and hitter-friendly setting while taking aim at another deep postseason run with the team for which he cemented himself as a star. Outside of the Blue Jays, it’s been a fairly tepid market for Bautista this winter — a scenario that is applicable to any number of the remaining corner outfield/first base type of sluggers on the market. Demand simply hasn’t materialized in the way that one might’ve expected, even for top-tier names. The Rays were somewhat speculatively linked to Bautista earlier this winter, and the Mets were said to have some interest before re-signing Yoenis Cespedes, but it’s been largely quiet on the Bautista front since he turned down a the qualifying offer back in November.

Heyman’s Latest: Encarnacion, Trumbo, Jays, Moss, Napoli, Dozier, Padres

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In the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s signing, there are now a whole lot of power hitters who could be next in line to sign. That situation provides much of the impetus behind the latest notes column from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. You’ll want to read the whole thing to get his full take on the market, but here are a few notable items of information:

  • The Athletics’ entry into the chase for Encarnacion helped push the action that led to his signing, per Heyman. Oakland proposed two separate scenarios, he notes, one of which would’ve been a straight two-year, $50MM deal and the other of which would have tacked on a third-year option in exchange for an opt-out clause. Before those offers pushed the Indians to boost their own deal, Encarnacion had been fielding many less-desirable possible arrangements. Indeed, the Blue Jays were mostly engaged with their former star on one-year possibilities most recently, Heyman notes.
  • With Encarnacion now off to Cleveland, the many remaining sluggers will be looking to land with a variety of other suitors. Heyman suggests that the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers are all “very likely” to add bats, while listing a number of other teams that could get involved as well. That includes the Rays, Giants, Phillies, White Sox, Angels, and Rockies, each of whom has at least some interest in the remaining market.
  • Mark Trumbo is probably now the player with the highest earning capacity who has yet to sign, but his landing spot remains hard to peg. Beyond the Orioles and Rockies, Heyman says, “a couple more opportunities may have cropped up” of late.
  • It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays will punt a pick to sign Jose Bautista (which they’d technically be doing, as they’d no longer be in line for the comp pick they stand to gain when he signs elsewhere), he adds, even if he’s now available on a one-year pact. Toronto does need to make some outfield additions, though, and Heyman writes that the club has kept tabs on free agents Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, along with “many others.” The Orioles are also said to have interest in Saunders, as has been suggested previously, and Heyman suggests that the Phillies — who’d prefer to add a lefty bat — have some interest in Moss.
  • Mike Napoli was said to be seeking a three-year deal earlier this winter, but this report now indicates that he’s seeking a two-year contract, which seems quite a bit more plausible. The Rangers are reportedly a “strong possibility” for Napoli, though Heyman notes the possibility of the ever-popular “mystery team” in Napoli’s market, suggesting that Napoli has at least one suitor that has yet to be linked to him publicly.
  • While the Dodgers are willing to give up Jose De Leon in a trade that would net them Brian Dozier from the Twins, they’re not willing to include first base prospect Cody Bellinger or well-regarded right-handed pitching prospects Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon. Heyman writes that some clubs feel the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their prospects and overvaluing their minor league talent, though as he points out, that approach worked to their benefit with regards to Corey Seager and Julio Urias (although none of the names listed are as well-regarded as that pair was).
  • In addition to Jered Weaver, veteran right-handers Jake Peavy and Colby Lewis are on the Padres’ radar. Peavy would love the opportunity to return to San Diego, where he established himself as a star and won the 2007 National League Cy Young Award. I’ll point out that Lewis, too, has some connections to the Padres, as GM A.J. Preller was in the Rangers’ front office when Lewis returned from Japan and cemented himself as a Major League-caliber arm.
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