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Eugenio Suarez’s Dramatic Resurgence

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Three months ago, it was in doubt whether Eugenio Suárez would finish the season with the Diamondbacks. Arizona's offseason acquisition of the veteran third baseman from the Mariners seemed like a bust. Suárez started the season horribly. He hit .241/.310/.357 through the end of April and fell into an even worse slump over the next two months. From the start of May through the end of June, Suárez posted a .165/.259/.280 line while striking out more than 30% of the time.

By the middle of June, the D-Backs were contemplating a change. On June 9, USA Today's Bob Nightengale wrote that the D-Backs were willing to consider what would've been a salary dump trade. Nightengale indicated that Suárez's hold on the third base job was tenuous and manager Torey Lovullo said a few days later that the Snakes would give more third base reps to rookie Blaze Alexander. That never really transpired, as Alexander scuffled in the limited playing time he did receive.

At the same time, Suárez began to find his footing. He reached base at a .391 clip between the time of Lovullo's comments and the end of the month. Once the calendar flipped to July, he transformed into an elite power threat.

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The Rays Already Look Primed For A Rebound In 2025

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After years of regularly exceeding expectations brought about by their low payrolls and reliance on unproven talent and/or reclamation projects, the 2024 Rays have finally had a rough season. At 74-78, they've been out of playoff contention for quite some time and have uncharacteristically been outscored by 60 runs. This will be their first playoff miss since 2018, although even that season saw them win 90 games. This is shaping up to be Tampa Bay's first sub-.500 season since 2017 -- a remarkable feat when considering the front office's perennially limited budget and the subsequent roster churn that brings about.

The Rays operated as sellers at the deadline, trading their most established power bat (Randy Arozarena), two starting pitchers (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), their All-Star third baseman (Isaac Paredes), one of their best relievers (Jason Adam) and a series of useful role players (Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Tyler Zuber).

Oftentimes, deadline sales of that magnitude serve as a portent for an offseason dedicated to rebuilding, as recently illustrated by the 2023 White Sox and the 2021-22 Nationals. That type of rebuild, however, seems largely unnecessary in Tampa Bay. Even with a lineup consisting of unproven journeymen and a host of light-hitting, glove-first regulars (e.g. Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Caballero), the Rays already look like a team that could jump back into contention as early as next season.

Let's take a look at the reasons for that.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 2:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers

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In today's mailbag, we get into a potential offseason plan for the Cardinals, the impact of managers, third base in Seattle, whether the Yankees should sign Juan Soto, NL playoff rotations, and much more.

Sam asks:

Hi Tim, imagine your phone rings and it's Bill DeWitt Jr. he says, "Tim, I've always liked your work at MLBTR and I've decided that I want to focus all my attention on acquiring as many Arby's as possible. 63 just isn't enough. So I've decided to gift you the St. Louis Cardinals and enough money to maintain the team's current ranking in payroll among the other 29 teams for the next 3 years, effective immediately." How do *you* Tim Dierkes go about fixing the Cardinals?

I generally support efforts to put more Arby's into the world.

The Cardinals' current competitive balance tax payroll is about $216MM, so I'll just stick with that.  That gives me about $92MM to work with.  Key arbitration eligibles include Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Andre Pallante.  I'm pretty sure those guys will cost less than $20MM, so if I tender them contracts I'll have about $75MM with which to work.

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The Juan Soto Blockbuster Has Been Even Better Than Expected

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Last winter's Juan Soto trade was the biggest in a long while -- probably the most significant since the previous Soto deal. The Padres were slashing payroll and didn't want to accommodate a salary north of $30MM for his final year of arbitration. Extension talks never got off the ground. The Padres were about to lose four potential starting pitchers to free agency, leaving them with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and a bunch of questions.

San Diego determined to build their return for Soto around MLB-ready starting pitching. They'd not only shed payroll but directly address the biggest need on the roster. It's impossible to trade Juan Soto and not deal a huge hit to the lineup, but the Padres could mitigate some of that loss by bringing back rotation help. Even the San Diego front office probably didn't envision it turning around the staff to this extent.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosted a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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Nick Martinez’s Third Straight Opt-Out Decision

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In a couple months, Nick Martinez will need to decide whether to test free agency for what would be the fourth straight offseason. More than most free agents, Martinez has seemed to value flexibility. Since he returned to affiliated ball during the 2021-22 offseason after a stint in Japan, the right-hander has signed contracts that allow him to opt out after the first season.

In each case, Martinez has pitched well enough to take that opportunity. He provided the Padres with 106 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball in 2022. San Diego brought him back in free agency on a new three-year deal after he triggered the out clause. That came with another opt-out possibility, which Martinez took last winter after posting a 3.43 ERA through 110 1/3 frames.

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MLB Mailbag: Trout, Elly De La Cruz, Cubs, Baty

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This week's mailbag addresses a potential Mike Trout trade, valuing Luis Arraez, how the White Sox and Cubs move forward, what an Elly De La Cruz extension might look like, Brett Baty's future, MLB's popularity, and much more.

Fred asks:

With the ever increasing annual salaries MLB stars are receiving, $36M just isn't what it used to be. Assuming he is amenable to a trade, is this the offseason someone (here's looking at you, Dave Dombrowski) takes a chance on Mike Trout's still tremendous upside? His salary could be offset with a bad contract or two (hello Taijuan Walker). He is far less expensive than Juan Soto will be.

$36MM is still a very large salary in MLB, currently tied for seventh all-time.  The actual CBT hit for a new team on Trout's remaining six years and $212.7MM would be similar at $35.45MM.

As an aside, four players signed contracts with $35-36MM AAVs in 2019: Trout, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon.  Five years later, only five players have managed to push into the $40MM realm, moving the needle modestly in this regard.

Trout said before the season that asking for a trade would be the "easy way out," but he also didn't rule out a future change of heart.  The Angels are on pace to lose about 95 games this year, they haven't been to the postseason since 2014, and there's little reason to expect the team to be good next year.  Despite his longstanding loyalty, it's plausible Trout could change his mind at some point.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat With Steve Adams: TODAY At 3pm Central

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MLBTR's Steve Adams will be hosting a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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The Other, Other NL MVP Candidate

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For much of the season Shohei Ohtani has been the presumptive National League MVP favorite. Maybe that wasn't the case on Opening Day, but an injury to teammate Mookie Betts early in the summer and an injury to D-backs star infielder Ketel Marte cleared his path. The Ohtani hype is understandable. He's been the National League's best hitter this year by many measures, pacing the Senior Circuit in slugging percentage (.613) and wRC+ (167). Ohtani is fifth in the NL in batting average, fourth in OBP, first in homers and runs scored and second in runs batted in. He's also swiped 46 bags and is a veritable lock to have a 45-45 season, with a chance at becoming MLB's first ever 50-homer, 50-steal player in a season.

Lately, there's been a push by Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor to tighten the race, however. Dating back to July 1, Lindor boasts a sensational .310/.384/.587 slash. He's in the midst of a torrid 15-game hitting streak, which he started just one game after seeing a 12-game hitting streak end. Since the beginning of July, Lindor has more than twice as many multi-hit games (22) than he does hitless games (10). Defensive metrics are a bit split on him this year, with Defensive Runs Saved curiously pegging him as average while Statcast grades him as one of the best defensive players in the entire game. Regardless, Lindor and his .274/.343/.501 batting line (plus 30 homers and 26 steals)  lead the NL in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR.

It's not quite fair to the rest of the field to call this a pure two-horse race, though Lindor and Ohtani are certainly the favorites at the moment. Cincinnati standout Elly De La Cruz could thrust himself further into the conversation with a big finish, but many voters will be turned off by the fact that however excellent his season has been -- and it's been excellent -- it's happened as a member of a non-contending Reds club.

There's still one other viable MVP candidate who's not getting the love, and who probably won't get the love -- but absolutely should.

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