Front Office Originals

This week's mailbag delves into the Dodgers' rotation for 2025, the likelihood of Cody Bellinger opting out, the Cardinals' reset, the Yankees' infield, and much more.

Ben asks:

I'm curious as to how you expect the Dodgers to address their rotation this offseason. The team is laden with talented starters, yet the number of injuries is astounding. Do you expect the team to continue adopting a high-risk, high-reward approach? Will we see them sign a low upside inning-eater or two as insurance? How likely is a reunion with Buehler, and what might the season-opening rotation look like?

When I consider  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I wouldn't say he had a higher injury risk than any other top starter the Dodgers could've gotten.  Nor was Trevor Bauer high-risk, healthwise.  Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Rich Hill were high injury risk three or four-year deals, but those were eight to ten years ago.

Otherwise, Andrew Friedman has generally gone for one-year starting pitcher deals in free agency: James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney in recent years.  Trade pickups have included Alex Wood, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Glasnow.

I don't know that I see a pattern there, other than eschewing long-term free agent deals for less youthful pitchers.  For example, if Max Fried is going to sign for five or six years, I don't expect the Dodgers to do that.  Innings eaters have not really been Friedman's thing, with the possible exception of Tyler Anderson coming off a 167-inning campaign.

You could argue that Buehler would be Friedman's type if he was coming from another team.  But the Dodgers had all year to try to get him on track this year and failed to do so, so my guess is that they will not re-sign him.

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Today's mailbag gets into offseason needs for the Red Sox, how the Cubs might fit Matt Shaw in, possible suitors for Willy Adames, whether Jo Adell has turned a corner, and much more.

Dave asks:

As a disgruntled Red Sox fan (mostly due to John Henry pulling in the purse strings), what are the Red Sox's biggest needs going into next season? I think as always the need for another innings eater in the rotation. Also curious as to if Duran was offered as trade, what type of starting pitching would he command? As for free agents - I don't think the Sox will bring back any of them. Although for the right price maybe Pivetta.

Here's how the team sets up right now:

• C - Connor Wong (R)
• 1B - Triston Casas (L)
• 2B -  Vaughn Grissom (R)
• SS - Trevor Story (R)
• 3B - Rafael Devers (L)
• LF - Jarren Duran (L)
• CF - Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
• RF - Wilyer Abreu (L)
• DH - Masataka Yoshida (L)

That doesn't include a quartet of highly-regarded position player prospects: outfielder Roman Anthony, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, infielder/center fielder Kristian Campbell, and catcher Kyle Teel.   And of course, Rafaela can play center as well as the middle infield.

The Red Sox will need someone to split time at catcher with Wong until Teel is ready, whether it's Danny Jansen or another veteran.  Second base has been an issue, with Grissom, Enmanuel Valdez, and David Hamilton getting the bulk of the playing time there.  With Mayer, Campbell, and Rafaela all options there, I don't see much room for a veteran.

The outfield pieces can move around as well.  Wilyer Abreu has had an excellent rookie season, though he has not shown the ability to hit left-handed pitching.  That problem extended even to Devers and Duran this year.  Of the prospects I mentioned, only Campbell bats right-handed.  Baseball America touched on this issue recently.

Devers had a strong year, while Story's contract demands a starting job.  Yoshida, also well-paid, might not have that luxury.  The Red Sox signed Rafaela to a $50MM contract in April, but he really hasn't hit outside of July and is on track for a 1-WAR season.  I'm not sure where he fits.

At 4.71 runs scored per game, this has been a good offense.  That's despite giving regular playing time to Rafaela.  It also includes big contributions from Tyler O'Neill, who seems likely to leave as a free agent, and Rob Refsnyder, who's unlikely to repeat.

Given the versatility and uncertainty around several of these players, there are a lot of ways next year's lineup can shake out.  I've seen the idea of trading Duran mentioned here and there.  Duran, 28, will be arbitration eligible for the first of four times in 2025 and is under control through 2028.  He's split his time between center and left field in his breakout season, and played both positions capably.  He's one of baseball's fastest players, his arm is strong, and his Statcast hitting metrics are solidly red.

Duran is on track for a 7-WAR season that in many years would make him an MVP frontrunner.  He provided the bulk of his offensive value from June through August, during which he had a 168 wRC+.  Duran has an 87 wRC+ against lefties this year, though he did hit southpaws well in June and July.

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