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Braves Place Spencer Strider On Injured List With UCL Sprain

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April 7: The Braves officially placed Strider on the 15-day injured list this morning with a UCL sprain. The club recalled right-hander Allan Winans in the corresponding move. Winans, 28, posted a 5.29 ERA and 4.09 FIP in six starts with Atlanta last year.

April 6: Braves right-hander Spencer Strider underwent an MRI today and the testing revealed that the ace hurler has suffered damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, per a team announcement. The next step for the Braves is for Strider to be evaluated by noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister, though the club noted that a date for that visit has yet to be determined.

UCL damage is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, though it appears no determination has yet been made regarding Strider’s specific treatment plan. If Strider does end up going under the knife, it won’t be the first time the hurler’s right elbow has required surgery. Before being drafted by the Braves in the fourth round of the 2020 draft, Strider underwent Tommy John surgery back in 2019 while pitching for Clemson University. If required, a second surgery would surely bring Strider’s 2024 campaign to an early close while also shelving him for much of the 2025 campaign as well.

Even less severe options are likely to result in an extended absence for the right-hander, however. For example, Red Sox righty Lucas Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure on his UCL last month that could allow him to pitch the entire 2025 campaign, though he’ll still miss all of the current season. Meanwhile, Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie required only rehab for a UCL sprain suffered last June and managed to return to the mound after just over three months on the shelf.

Regardless of what treatment is ultimately prescribed for Strider, it appears he’s ticketed for a significant absence. It’s a brutal blow for the Braves, though not entirely unexpected after the club announced yesterday that Strider would undergo an MRI on his elbow. The fourth place finisher in NL Cy Young award voting last year, Strider has emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the sport over the past two seasons, pitching to an excellent 3.36 ERA with a sterling 2.43 FIP while striking out a sensational 37.4% of batters faced. That incredible strikeout rate is by far the best of all qualified starters over the past two seasons, with reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell, who sports a 31.7% rate, standing as the only other pitcher to post a figure north of 30%.

Fortunately for Atlanta, the club is about as well equipped as any team could be to handle an extended absence from a pitcher of Strider’s caliber. Pending free agent Max Fried is an ace in his own right with a career 3.06 ERA, while veteran southpaw Chris Sale is only a few years removed from being one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet in Chicago and Boston. With those two at the front of the rotation, veterans Charlie Morton and Reynaldo Lopez in the middle, and quality youngsters Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver available as depth options for the fifth spot in the rotation, the Braves’ rotation should be able to support the club’s excellent offense as they push for their seventh consecutive NL East title even without Strider in the mix.

Spencer Strider To Undergo MRI On Right Elbow

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Braves ace Spencer Strider will go for an MRI on his right elbow on Saturday after complaining of discomfort on Friday night (per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The All-Star right-hander threw just four innings and 88 pitches in his second start of the season, giving up five earned runs while striking out four. As Mark Bowman of MLB.com noted, his 12 whiffs were tied for the “sixth-lowest total he has induced while throwing at least 80 pitches” in his MLB career. For comparison, Strider produced 18 whiffs and eight strikeouts on 90 pitches in his season debut. To make matters worse, his velocity was down on all four of his pitches. Although Strider didn’t mention his discomfort until he exited the game (per David O’Brien of The Athletic), something was clearly off throughout his start.

Despite his unimposing stature, Strider is one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in baseball. His four-seam fastball averaged 97.2 mph and topped out at 100.5 mph in 2023. He pairs his blistering fastball with a terrific slider, a changeup (against left-handed batters), and as of this year, a curveball. For a flame-throwing hurler toying with a new breaking pitch, the words “elbow discomfort” are especially worrisome. Not to mention, Strider has already suffered a torn UCL, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019 during his time at Clemson University.

Strider burst onto the scene in 2022 and established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game the following year. He led the National League in wins, strikeouts, and FIP, en route to All-MLB First Team honors. He entered the 2024 campaign as the undisputed ace of a strong Braves rotation and a popular preseason pick to win the NL Cy Young. A serious elbow injury would be devastating for both Strider and his club.

Even if the MRI comes back clean, Bowman suggests Atlanta will exercise caution with Strider over the next two weeks. He could take a 15-day trip to the IL while his elbow regains strength. After all, there is little harm in playing it safe.

The Braves remain the favorites in the NL East even if Strider misses significant time. Still, any injury to their No. 1 starter would be a huge blow, particularly if Strider is unavailable to pitch in the playoffs. The team provided little reason for optimism or pessimism after the game, so fans will have to wait until Saturday to learn more about the extent of Strider’s potential injury.

Braves Sign Sandy Leon, Jackson Stephens To Minor League Deals

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The Braves have signed catcher Sandy Leon and right-hander Jackson Stephens to minor league contracts, as per the MLB.com bio pages for both players.  For Stephens, he returns to the organization after rejecting an outright assignment in favor of free agency earlier this week.

Leon’s addition seems like a pure depth move for the Braves with Sean Murphy on the 10-day injured list.  Since there usually isn’t a set timeline for oblique injuries, it isn’t yet known when Murphy might be back in action, so signing Leon gives Atlanta a bit more flexibility at Triple-A Gwinnett.  Travis d’Arnaud and Chadwick Tromp are handling catching duties on the big league roster, and Sebastian Rivero was the only catcher on the Gwinnett roster with any prior MLB experience.

The 35-year-old Leon has played in each of the last 12 Major League seasons, suiting up for six different teams.  Leon has also been part of the Reds and Royals organizations without seeing any regular-season playing time, as Leon took part in Kansas City’s training camp this past spring after being signed to a minors deal.  The Royals decided they had enough catching depth and released Leon back on March 23, so it didn’t take long for Leon to land another opportunity.

Defense and game-calling has long been Leon’s calling card, allowing him to carve out a long career as a part-timer and backup catcher despite a .208/.276/.311 slash line over 1729 career plate appearances.  He won a World Series ring with the 2018 Red Sox and appeared in 21 games for another championship just last season with the Rangers, though Leon spent most of 2023 with the Triple-A affiliates of the Rangers and Guardians.

Stephens was first outrighted off a 40-man roster back in 2019 when he was a member of the Reds, and he has since had the ability to reject any other outright assignment in favor of free agency.  Since he is now out of minor league options, Stephens has bounced on and off Atlanta’s 40-man multiple times since first joining the team during the 2021-22 offseason, opting for free agency and then returning after some period of time on a new contract.  Last November, Stephens again opted for free agency before re-signing on a split contract with the Braves, and it isn’t known if this new deal is also a split arrangement or if it’s just a straight minor league pact.

Stephens posted a 4.83 ERA over 63 1/3 innings with the Reds from 2017-18, then spent the next three seasons pitching in the minors, the Mexican League, and on the sidelines altogether due to the canceled 2020 minor league campaign.  He resurfaced after signing with the Braves and has a respectable 3.56 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, and 9.8% walk rate in 65 2/3 frames since the start of the 2022 season.  Thirty-nine of Stephens’ 44 Atlanta appearances took place in 2022, as the righty spent a lot of last year either in the minors or in DFA/free agent limbo.

Braves Place Sean Murphy On Injured List Due To Oblique Injury

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TODAY: The Braves officially announced Murphy’s placement on the 10-day IL, due to a strained left oblique.  Tromp’s contract was officially selected to the big league roster.

MARCH 29: Braves catcher Sean Murphy departed today’s game with an oblique issue and the club informed reporters after the game that the backstop will go on the injured list. Mark Bowman of MLB.com was among those to relay the news. David O’Brien of The Athletic relays that Chadwick Tromp will be called up. Tromp is not currently on the 40-man and will need to be added, though Atlanta has multiple vacancies there.

The severity of the issue isn’t yet known but it will be a notable one for Atlanta, as Murphy is one of the better backstops in the league. He hit 21 home runs last year and drew walks in 11.2% of his plate appearances. That led to a batting line of .251/.365/.478, which translates to a wRC+ of 129. He’s also considered a strong defender and FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.2 wins above replacement on the year. That was the fifth-highest tally among catchers, but the four above him all played at least 18 more games than Murphy did.

The reason Murphy played just 108 wasn’t due to injury, but the club splitting the catching playing time between him and Travis d’Arnaud. With Murphy now out, d’Arnaud will have to step up and take on a larger role for at least the next 10 days but perhaps longer.

As far as backup catchers go, few clubs could boast one as good as d’Arnaud, but he’s clearly a drop-off from Murphy. d’Arnaud hit 11 home runs in 292 plate appearances last year but his .225/.288/.397 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 83. He has been in better form in the past, as recently as 2022, when he hit .268/.319/.472 for a wRC+ of 120.

The club is loaded with talent but those are the only two catchers on the 40-man roster right now. d’Arnaud is now 35 years old and has had his share of injury woes over the years, including multiple concussions, Tommy John surgery, a thumb sprain, a broken finger and a strained rotator cuff. While Atlanta will still be a great team, Murphy is arguably the player on the roster whose absence would make the most negative impact.

Tromp, 29, has a bit of major league experience. He’s been in the big leagues in each of the past four years but taken just 102 plate appearances in 40 games over that time. His career batting line of .222/.225/.414 translates to a wRC+ of 65. In Triple-A over the past three years, he’s hit .229/.299/.399 for a wRC+ of 76. He was non-tendered by Atlanta after last season but re-signed on a minor league deal. As mentioned, he’ll need a 40-man spot but Atlanta has plenty of spots open.

Atlanta will roll with that combination for the time being but could also perhaps look around the league for external additions, as various roster cuts have been made in recent days with the season starting. Eric Haase was designated for assignment by the Brewers yesterday, Alí Sánchez by the Pirates and Cooper Hummel by the Giants. It’s also possible a small trade could be had, perhaps involving someone like Joey Bart of the Giants. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle recently took a look at how Bart has a tenuous grasp on his roster spot in San Francisco.

Regardless of how things play out, Atlanta won’t find anyone as good as Murphy. Whatever plans they cobble together in the weeks to come, they will be hoping for him to get healthy as quickly as possible and rejoin the club.

Astros Claim Penn Murfee From Braves

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The Astros have claimed right-hander Penn Murfee from the Braves, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The Astros placed righty Kendall Graveman on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. Graveman is going to miss the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery.

It was reported on Monday that Murfee was released but it seems he was actually on release waivers and had not yet cleared. Murfee, who turns 30 in May, had surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament in June of last year while with the Mariners. This offseason, he was claimed off waivers by the Mets and Braves, with the latter club non-tendering him and re-signing him.

Atlanta put him on waivers this week to try to open up a roster spot but the Astros swooped in with a claim. It’s a little strange that Atlanta put him on waivers since they only have 36 players on their 40-man roster right now. Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, only release waivers. Perhaps the club was hoping Murfee would clear and become a free agent, then they could re-sign him to a minor league deal, not having to give him major league pay or service time. It’s a moot point now as whatever plans Atlanta had were foiled by Houston.

The Astros have roster spots to burn, so it’s more or less a free pickup for them. As mentioned, Graveman is going to miss the entire season and was going to end up on the 60-day IL at some point. The same is true of Luis García Jr., who had Tommy John surgery in May of last year. Lance McCullers Jr. had flexor tendon surgery and is a candidate for the 60-day IL as well. Then there’s Oliver Ortega, who recently had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow and will miss three to four months.

With all of those injuries, it’s quite easy for the Astros to claim a player and make a corresponding move and Murfee will now give them yet another player that can be moved to the 60-day IL to open up a spot in the future.

Murfee has a 2.70 career earned run average in 83 1/3 major league innings, all of those with the Mariners over the past two seasons. He struck out 27.9% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at an 8.5% clip. Given those results, it’s understandable that so many clubs have shown interest since he lost his roster spot with Seattle.

Once healthy, he will jump into the mix for a spot in a Houston bullpen that has seen a decent amount of turnover. Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek each hit free agency and signed with other clubs. Graveman’s injury further depleted the depth and spurred the Astros to make a splashy addition, signing Josh Hader. Combined with Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu, Hader gives the Astros a lethal punch for leverage spots but the relief corps isn’t as deep as it was last year.

Murfee has just under two years of service, meaning the Astros could theoretically retain him for the next five years if he returns to health and is in good form. He also has a full slate of options, giving them some roster flexibility going forward.

Jackson Stephens Elects Free Agency

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March 27: Stephens rejected the outright assignment in favor of free agency, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

March 26: The Braves have sent right-hander Jackson Stephens outright to Triple-A Gwinnett, with Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution among those to relay the news. Both Toscano and Mark Bowman of MLB.com suggest that the opened roster spot will go to right-hander Jesse Chavez.

Stephens, 30 in May, has been on and off Atlanta’s roster over the past two years. Since he’s out of options, he can’t be easily sent down to the minors, which has resulted in him being frequently getting bumped off the roster but always coming back.

He was signed by Atlanta to a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season and had his contract selected that year. He was non-tendered after that campaign but was re-signed in December, only to be outrighted in March. He had his contract selected in September of last year but was outrighted again in November. He signed another major league deal a week later and has lasted on the club’s roster until now.

Amid all of those transactions, he has tossed 65 2/3 innings for Atlanta over the past two years with a 3.56 earned run average. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate are both a bit worse than league average, but he has kept 45.4% of batted balls on the ground while also doing a good job of limiting hard contact and missing barrels. In 2022, when he pitched a far larger sample of innings compared to last year, he was in at least the 82nd percentile in terms of average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate.

Despite that generally solid performance, he continues to pass through waivers unclaimed. A player with a previous career outright has the right to reject another outright assignment and elect free agency, though it seems Stephens is comfortable with Atlanta and might either accept his assignment or quickly re-sign a new deal of some kind.

The club doesn’t need 40-man roster spots, as they are now down to just 36 guys in that department, but they do need an active roster spot if they want to add Chavez. The only guy in their projected bullpen who can be optioned is Dylan Lee, but it seems Atlanta preferred to keep him up with the big league club and remove Stephens from the 40-man. Lee has a 2.95 ERA in his career and keeping him in the majors gives them an even four-four split of righties and lefties.

Chavez, 40, has bounced around the league in recent years but always seems to end up back in Atlanta. Last year, he made 36 appearances for the club with a 1.56 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 51.7% ground ball rate. He signed a minor league deal with the White Sox but posted an 11.57 ERA in a small sample of seven innings. He didn’t make that club’s Opening Day roster and was released, either because he triggered an opt-out or because the club proactively let him loose to pursue other opportunities.

That led to him returning to Atlanta on a minor league deal yesterday and he now seems poised to be on the club’s Opening Day roster.

Braves Release Penn Murfee

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The Braves have released right-hander Penn Murfee, reports Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The move clears a spot on Atlanta’s 40-man roster. Murfee was claimed off waivers back in November, non-tendered a few days later, and then re-signed to a major league contract just weeks after that. The sidearming righty posted excellent numbers with the Mariners in 2022-23 but underwent a season-ending UCL procedure late last June and figures to miss considerable time in 2024 as a result.

Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, though the Braves could’ve placed him on the major league 60-day injured list if they wanted to open a 40-man roster spot and keep Murfee as a possible down-the-road option in 2024. It’s possible Atlanta will look to quickly re-sign Murfee to a minor league deal so he can continue his rehab process with them, but today’s move ensures that he’ll have the opportunity to at least speak with the game’s other 29 clubs and see if he feels there’s a better opportunity elsewhere.

The 29-year-old Murfee made his big league debut with the 2022 Mariners and came out of nowhere as a quality middle-innings option. The former 33rd-round pick had never been a particularly prominent prospect within Seattle’s system and posted fairly nondescript numbers up through 2021 in the minors. His MLB debut campaign featured 69 innings of 2.99 ERA ball, however, and Murfee fanned an impressive 27.9% of his opponents against a very sharp 6.6% walk rate.

Murfee looked like the next in a long line of high-end Mariners relievers to emerge from obscurity. He opened the 2023 season with 14 innings of 1.29 ERA ball, albeit with a massive uptick in walks (17.2%). His already below-average fastball velocity dipped to an average of 88.1 mph, and Murfee twice landed on the injured list due to elbow inflammation in the season’s first couple months. By June 27, he’d been diagnosed with enough UCL damage that surgery was recommended.

It’s not clear just when Murfee will be cleared to return the mound. He unsurprisingly hasn’t pitched in a spring game while working through the rehab process. A return at some point late in the 2024 season seems feasible, provided he’s able to avoid any setbacks. The right-hander has 1.169 years of MLB service, meaning he can be controlled at least five more seasons, and he also has all three minor league option years remaining.

Braves Sign Jesse Chavez To Minor League Deal

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Jesse Chavez is headed back to the Braves. Again. Atlanta announced this morning that the veteran right-hander has been signed to a minor league contract. He’ll head to big league camp for the final few days of spring training. Chavez spent the majority of spring training with the White Sox but was cut loose over the weekend. The Apex Baseball client will now head back to the Braves organization for what’ll be a fourth straight season (and a fifth overall).

Chavez, 40, has been excellent with the Braves in each of the past three seasons but struggled through shorter stints with the Angels and Cubs. Even accounting for rough showings in Anaheim and Chicago, however, he’s notched a tidy 2.81 earned run average in 137 2/3 innings over the past three seasons. Along the way, he’s fanned 26.2% of his opponents, issued walks at a strong 7.6% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a roughly average 42.3% clip (including a 51.7% mark last year). Metrics like FIP (2.97) and SIERA (3.33) generally agree that Chavez has been a highly effective reliever — one who’s often worked in multi-inning roles.

It was a rough spring for Chavez with the ChiSox. He tossed seven official innings and was tagged for ten runs (nine earned) on a dozen hits and two walks with eight strikeouts. That comes out to an 11.57 ERA, albeit in a tiny sample of work. Chavez also posted quality strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates (22.2%, 5.6%, 56%, respectively) and only allowed one homer while serving up a .458 BABIP, so take the spring ERA — as always — with a grain of salt.

The Atlanta bullpen is quite full at the moment, with only one reliever — left-hander Dylan Lee — who can even be optioned to Triple-A. The Braves are set to roll out a heavily veteran ’pen including Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek and Aaron Bummer. Right-hander Jackson Stephens is out of minor league options and thus stands as a favorite to win the final bullpen spot.

That could ticket Chavez for early-season work in Triple-A Gwinnett, where he’d presumably be one of the first men up in the event of an injury. It’s at least possible he’ll overtake Stephens for that final bullpen spot, as Stephens has a limited big league track record and has walked seven hitters in 7 1/3 frames this spring.

Braves Release Charlie Culberson

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The Braves have released Charlie Culberson, as per the team’s official MLB.com transactions log.  Culberson rejoined the Braves on a minor league deal back in January, and was attempting to transition to pitching after 17 pro seasons (including 11 in the majors) as a utilityman.

This doesn’t appear to be the end of the line for Culberson’s career, as he told Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he will continue to seek out more playing opportunities.  Culberson turns 35 next month, though he indicated in another interview with Toscano last month that he wasn’t yet leaning towards retirement.

Culberson has a .248/.294/.386 slash line over 1312 career plate appearances, and he has played for five different teams at the MLB level since making his debut with the Giants back in 2012.  This includes 231 games over what is technically six different stints with the Braves, since Culberson has signed four separate minor league contracts with Atlanta over the last year.  The Braves twice designated Culberson for assignment and he chose free agency rather than an outright assignment, though Culberson quickly rejoined the organization on a new contract.

The transactional shuffles were part of an odd year overall for Culberson, who played in only 27 games with Triple-A Gwinnett and in exactly one game at the Major League level.  Atlanta’s tendency to rarely rest its star players meant that Culberson simply didn’t have much opportunity to get playing time, despite several months on the Braves’ active roster.  This made 2023 a “tough” season for Culberson, as he told Toscano, and it partially inspired his decision to try pitching as a different way of providing value to a big league roster.

Culberson has made eight mop-up appearances (totaling 7 1/3 innings) as a pitcher over the years, in addition to his much lengthier resume at all four infield positions, as a left fielder, and a handful of games in right field.  He has topped 100 plate appearances in only six of his 12 Major League seasons, though Culberson did get 271 PA and 90 appearances as recently as 2021 when he playing for a rebuilding Rangers team.

Over three Spring Training appearances this year, Culberson made three appearances on the mound and was charged with six earned runs over two innings of work.  Obviously there were going to be some bumps in the road for Culberson as he pursued his new position, and it remains to be seen if he’ll continue to experiment with a pitching career or if he might return to his familiar utility role if another team needs some position-player depth.  While another contract with the Braves wouldn’t be a surprise if the Georgia native wants to stay close to home, Culberson’s desire to actually play seems to be clashing with Atlanta’s loaded roster.

Braves Option Bryce Elder; Reynaldo Lopez To Open Season As Fifth Starter

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve optioned right-handers Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett. That follows last week’s option of righty AJ Smith-Shawver and closes the book on Atlanta’s fifth-starter competition. Offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez will open the season as the team’s fifth starter behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

While it’s looked quite likely for some time now that Lopez would get the spot, it’s nonetheless a scenario that would’ve sounded outlandish after the conclusion of the 2023 season. Elder faded down then stretch in the final couple months of the ’23 campaign but was an All-Star last July. Smith-Shawver rose from High-A to the big leagues in a matter of months last season. Lopez, meanwhile, moved to the bullpen early in the 2021 season with the White Sox and has worked as a reliever for the bulk of the past three seasons.

However, even at the time the Braves signed Lopez to a three-year, $30MM contract, they made clear that the plan was going to be to stretch the right-hander out as a rotation option. Atlanta scouts and evaluators are clearly bullish on the right-hander’s power arsenal and feel it can indeed still hold up in a starting capacity. Lopez started 73 games for the ChiSox from 2018-20, so he’s no stranger to the role, but the vast majority of his MLB success has come since moving to short relief stints.

Thus far in camp, he’s at least looked the part of a viable rotation piece. Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but through 16 2/3 frames Lopez hasn’t done much to hurt his chances. He’s posted a sharp 2.16 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate. Elder has been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walk with 13 strikeouts through just 12 innings. Ynoa, who’s still making his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery, was slowed early in camp by some shoulder soreness and only made his spring debut on Saturday, tossing one inning. Were it not for the shoulder issue, perhaps he’d have been more firmly in the mix this spring, but he didn’t have the chance to build up and will open the season as a depth option in Gwinnett.

Once Smith-Shawver was optioned a week ago, the competition was largely down to Elder and Lopez. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but after a brilliant start to his 2023 season, Elder limped to a dismal 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 72 innings of the year (14 starts).

Lopez, over the past three seasons, has pitched to a 3.14 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 39% ground-ball rate through 189 innings, most of which has come in a relief setting. He pushed his average fastball velocity up to a career-high 98.4 mph in that role last season, though he’ll likely see that number dip a bit over longer stints as a starter.

Lopez posted a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts for the ’18 White Sox but did so with shaky strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates that prompted metrics like FIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.92) to cast a much less favorable light on his work. The secondary numbers indeed served as a portent for regression; from 2019-20, Lopez was torched for a 5.52 ERA in 210 2/3 innings, thanks largely to pedestrian K-BB numbers and a sky-high 1.88 HR/9 mark.

If Lopez is able to break out as a starter, the three-year, $30MM contract he signed could well look like a bargain. If not, he’s proven over the past few seasons that he can be an impact late-inning reliever, so he could always be shifted back into a one-inning role and deepen an already excellent Atlanta bullpen that features Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Lopez’s former White Sox teammate Aaron Bummer.

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