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MLBTR Podcast: Paul Skenes, The Prospect Hype Machine, Willson Contreras And Rising Catcher’s Interference Rates

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Astros continue this horrible start through the summer months, who are some players that they might swap? (33:15)
  • With the Phillies having one of the best rotations in baseball and six pitchers deep, it seems to make a guy like Mick Abel expendable. Do you think the Phillies possibly move him at the deadline? Say for a bat to possibly platoon with Nick Castellanos in right? (38:45)
  • Is there any chance the Tigers may try and sell high on Tarik Skubal? He’s an ace and it would take a lot to pry him away but Detroit just doesn’t seem like a place that’ll pay him the big bucks under Chris Ilitch’s regime. Not sure his value will ever be higher especially if they continue to play how they have in recent weeks. (46:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Astros Notes: Verlander, Pressly, Brown

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The Astros are out to a slow start this year, currently sitting 15-25, ahead of just the White Sox and Angels in the American League standings. That’s led to early speculation about them possibly trading some pieces at this summer’s deadline.

General manager Dana Brown was recently on MLB Network and said that he “can’t predict any scenario” where the Astros sell at the deadline. But as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that channel is usually on in clubhouses and he may have decided to portray public confidence with the players watching.

There will be many interesting decisions for the club to make this year, though the on-field performance will obviously play a huge factor in how they make those choices. There is still time for them to climb back into contention, with the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently giving them a 39.6% chance to make the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them slightly better than a coin toss at 51.3%.

If the club does end up in selling position, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to tear the roster down to the studs. Cristian Javier is under contract through 2027, Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader through 2028 and Jose Altuve through 2029. Players like Luis Garcia, Chas McCormick and Bryan Abreu are arbitration-eligible through 2026, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers through 2027, while Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco are controllable even beyond that.

There are also some guys closer to free agency that the club may have to think about trading if they can’t climb in the standings in the next two months. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent. Justin Verlander is as well, though he has a conditional player option for 2025. Ryan Pressly is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, though his 2025 mutual option becomes guaranteed if he makes 50 appearances this year. That’s a number he’s hit in the past seven full seasons and he’s already at 16 this year, meaning he’ll vest that option as long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy each have one more arbitration season remaining before they are slated for free agency after 2025.

Though the club may have to at least field some calls on that group, there will be some complications with Verlander and Pressly. As mentioned by Rome, both players have opt-outs and would prefer to stay in Houston. That tracks with last week’s report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who also highlighted Verlander’s love of Houston.

Perhaps that means the most likely scenario is both players stay for next year. Verlander will have a player option if he gets to 140 innings this year and could trigger it, or perhaps re-sign even if he doesn’t make it to that line. With Pressly on pace to lock in another year on his deal and not jazzed about being traded, perhaps he just stays as well. Verlander is now 41 years old and Pressly is 35, so they may have to think about whether their love for Houston is strong enough for them to stick around and play out the string on a lost season, as opposed to competing for another ring elsewhere. But they have a few months to think that over.

For now, the club has to ponder its roster construction as they try to win the ball games in front of them. At the start of the month, the club began a stretch of playing 29 games in 30 days and manager Joe Espada said that the club would be considering a six-man rotation.

They haven’t exactly stuck to that plan initially. Javier started Saturday’s game and only recorded four outs, which led to Brown throwing five innings of long relief. Whether Brown will stick in the bullpen for a while or make another start seems undecided right now. The next three contests are slated to be started by Spencer Arrighetti, Blanco and Valdez, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on X, but with Espada telling Kawahara that either Javier or Brown could take the ball on Thursday. The club doesn’t have an off-day until May 23, and then plays another 13 straight after that. Espada says they will have a six-man rotation at some point but it’s not exactly clear how often Brown will be starting or relieving.

Astros Activate Cristian Javier, Designate Brandon Bielak

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The Astros have activated right-hander Cristian Javier from the 15-day injured list, as Javier will get the start in today’s game against the Tigers.  To make room for Javier on the active roster, right-hander Brandon Bielak has been designated for assignment.

Javier blasted out of the gates this season, posting a 1.54 ERA over his first 23 1/3 innings and four starts.  While a 5.29 SIERA painted a much less favorable picture of Javier’s performance due to such factors as his .215 BABIP, 18.9% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate, the Astros can hardly argue with the results given how desperately the team has needed all the quality pitching it can get.  Unfortunately, Javier joined several other Houston pitchers on the IL when he was sidelined just under a month ago due to neck discomfort.

With Javier, Justin Verlander, and Framber Valdez now all back from stints on the injured list, the rotation has slowly started to take on its intended form, even if Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and J.P. France are all still on the mend.  The combination of the three healthy starters plus Ronel Blanco will be the top four starters in what could be a six-man rotation for the time being, since the Astros are in the midst of playing 29 games in a 30-day span.  Neither Hunter Brown or Spencer Arrighetti has pitched well this season, but they could be penciled in as the fifth and sixth starters if Houston does decide to expand the rotation to give everyone more rest.

It doesn’t seem like Bielak will be involved in this plan, unless he clears DFA waivers and is quickly brought back to the 40-man roster after being outrighted.  Bielak has thrown more than one inning in the majority of his 10 appearances this season, and 21 of his 70 overall MLB appearances have been as a starter, though the results have been spotty for the 28-year-old.  Over his 191 2/3 career innings (all with Houston), Bielak has a 4.65 ERA, a modest 18.1% strikeout rate, and an 8.4% walk rate that is on the high side.

Bielak has been shuttled back and forth many times between Triple-A and the majors over the previous four years, though he is now out of minor league options.  As a result, the Astros were forced to designate the righty for assignment in order to move him back to the minors, and it’s possible another team could claim Bielak away off waivers.

Astros Claim Alex Speas, Designate Corey Julks

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The Astros have claimed right-hander Alex Speas off waivers from the Athletics, per an announcement from the A’s. Oakland had designated him for assignment earlier this week. The Astros opened a roster spot by designating outfielder Corey Julks for assignment, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Speas has been optioned to Triple-A already.

Speas, 26, is capable of getting into triple-digit territory with his fastball. However, as if often the case for pitchers with that kind of power, controlling it has been an issue. He started last year at the Double-A level in the Rangers’ system. He tossed 28 1/3 innings at that level with a walk rate of 11.3%, but was able to work around that by striking out 40.9% of batters faced, leading to an earned run average of 0.64.

Moving up to the higher levels, he found it more challenging to overcome the lack of control. He tossed another 28 1/3 innings at Triple-A, but walked 19.2% of batters faced. His 29.2% strikeout rate was still strong but his ERA was 5.08. He also tossed two innings in the majors, striking out four batters but walking five.

He was nudged off the Texas roster in September of last year and has bounced around a bit since then. The White Sox claimed him off waivers in early October last year but designated him for assignment in early April. He was claimed by the A’s and is now changing clubs via waivers yet again.

Between the Sox and the A’s, he’s thrown 12 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level this year. He has struck out 17 opponents but walked nine, leading to rates of 26.6% and 14.4%, respectively. Those free baserunners have led to him being burned by four home runs, which is why he has a 12.08 ERA so far this year.

Despite the rough results so far in 2024, the Astros are taking a bet on the stuff. In addition to averaging 98.9 miles per hour on his fastball during his brief MLB debut last year, Statcast also lists a 91.9 mph cutter and 87.7 mph sweeper as pitches he threw for the Rangers. He still has a couple of options, so the Astros can keep him in the minors to see if he gets a better handle on that arsenal in the future.

In order to take a chance on Speas, the Astros are risking losing Julks. The 2018 eighth-rounder had a strong season at Triple-A in 2022, hitting 31 home runs and stealing 22 bases. His .270/.351/.503 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 108 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

He cracked Houston’s Opening Day roster last year but didn’t immediately thrive in the majors and ended up back in the minors a couple of times. He finished the year with a .245/.297/.352 line in 93 big league games, translating to a wRC+ of 80. He still performed well in Sugar Land, drawing walks in 18.6% of his plate appearances and slashing .240/.388/.462 for a 110 wRC+.

Here in 2024, he was sent back to the Space Cowboys and has taken a slight step back. His 12.8% walk rate is still good but an obvious drop from last year. He currently has a .266/.358/.444 line and 97 wRC+ for the year.

Julks clearly has some skills but is now 28 years old and the Astros have a decent crop of outfielders ahead of him. Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubon, Joey Loperfido and Trey Cabbage are each on the 40-man and all are on the active roster except for the injured McCormick.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Julks or pass him through waivers. Given his strong numbers on the farm and two remaining option years, it’s possible he will garner interest from clubs looking for more outfield depth.

J.P. France Facing Notable Absence Due To Shoulder Injury

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Astros right-hander J.P. France is dealing with a shoulder injury and is going to be out “a while,” per reporting from Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome adds in a post on X that manager Joe Espada told SportsTalk 790 that France has been shut down with “right shoulder soreness” and will be sent for more testing. The righty dealt with a shoulder issue during Spring Training but got over it in time to make the Opening Day roster, making five starts before being optioned to Triple-A at the end of April.

An injury to a starter on optional assignment wouldn’t always be a big deal, but there are a few reasons why it would be concerning for the Astros right now. The club is out to a rough 12-22 start, making it feel like their season is in peril. Houston has a very strong track record in the recent past and it’s still early here in 2024, but they will need a run of victories at some point to gain ground in the playoff race.

On top of that, the next part of their schedule is going to be tough. Today marks the start of a period where they play 29 games in 30 days, a challenging enough stretch that the club is likely to go with a six-man rotation.

The starting staff has been a juggling act all year. They knew coming into the season that Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia would be missing significant time as each underwent elbow surgery last year. On top of that, each of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy have spent time on the injured list.

Verlander and Valdez have since returned and are currently active. The other three rotation spots are currently held by Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Blanco has pitched very well, even throwing a no-hitter against the Blue Jays last month, but Brown and Arrighetti have faced significant struggles. Brown has an 8.89 earned run average through his seven starts while Arrighetti has a mark of 8.27 through his four outings.

Javier is expected to be activated from the IL at some point in the near future, perhaps as soon as this weekend, to give the club six starters. France could have perhaps been an option to replace Brown or Arrighetti but this injury could force the Astros to stick with those two.

Urquidy is nearing a rehab assignment but would likely need at least a few weeks to build up since he’s missed the entire season so far. Pitchers like Brandon Bielak and Shawn Dubin have some starting experience but are currently in the big league bullpen and not stretched out. Blair Henley is on the 40-man but his one major league start was disastrous, allowing five earned runs while recording just one out, while his Triple-A numbers aren’t great either.

One surprising name that could be entering the mix is A.J. Blubaugh, as Rome reports that the right-hander has “opened eyes” after his recent promotion to Triple-A. A seventh-round pick from the 2022 draft, Blubaugh has recently made five Triple-A starts with a 4.43 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He’s not currently on the 40-man roster.

How the club decides to tackle their rotation challenges will be an interesting situation to monitor over the next month as they navigate this tricky patch of their schedule. For France personally, it would be quite unfortunate timing for him if the injury turns out to be significant, beyond the obvious frustrations. Since he was optioned to the minors a few weeks ago, he’s not currently accruing major league pay or service time.

France came into 2024 with 149 days of service time, just 23 shy of the 172 required for a full year. He spent 28 days on the active roster to start this season before getting optioned, meaning he barely eclipsed that one-year line. But if he were to languish in the minors while injured for a while, it would hurt his chances of reaching arbitration and free agency in the future. If he is set to miss significant time and the Astros want to use his 40-man roster spot, they could recall him and place him on the major league 60-day injured list, which would start his service clock running again.

Will Justin Verlander Be Traded This Summer?

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With the Astros out to a rough start here in 2024, speculation has been mounting that they may have to consider a deadline selloff this summer. Righty Justin Verlander is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and would be a logical candidate for a trade, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today throws some cold water on the possibility.

Verlander has a full no-trade clause, which he waived last summer in order to go from the Mets to the Astros. Nightengale reports that the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were all heavily involved for the veteran righty, but that he would only waive his no-trade to return to Houston since he loves playing there. Nightengale infers from this that Verlander isn’t likely to waive his no-trade again in order to be sent packing from Houston.

Despite Verlander’s love of being an Astro, it’s possible he will have to weigh that against his desire to compete. He cited a desire to win as his reason for signing with the Mets, though that plan didn’t work out and he eventually returned to Houston in his pursuit of another ring. The Astros are 12-22 at the moment and face a steep climb back into contention. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs have dropped to 39.9%, after being at 86.2% at the start of the season. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more optimistic, however, still giving them a 64.1% chance.

If the club can’t get back into the mix by July, perhaps Verlander would warm to the idea of moving to another contender, especially since he’s now 41 years old and is surely aware that he may only have so many chances left. He has a 2.08 earned run average so far this year and should receive plenty of interest. As Bob mentioned, teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were trying to get him last summer, and previous reporting also had clubs like the Giants, Atlanta, Padres and Orioles on the phone.

Verlander may not be a pure rental since he has a conditional player option for 2025. As part of the two-year deal he signed with the Mets going into 2023, if he throws 140 innings in 2024, he has a $35MM player option for 2025.

Verlander started the season on the injured list, which slightly lowered his chances of getting to 140 innings, but he still has plenty of time to get there. He didn’t make his debut this year until April 19 and has only logged 17 1/3 innings over three starts so far. But he also started last year on the IL, not debuting until early May, then stayed healthy the rest of the way and got to 162 1/3 innings. Another injury absence could tighten things, but he currently has plenty of room to get to 140 as things stand.

Player options often make clubs reluctant to acquire such players at the deadline because of the varying outcomes. If the player finishes the season strong, he will leave after being on the club for just a couple of months. If he performs poorly or gets injured, the team will be stuck with him for another year. But it’s worth pointing out that the extreme downside of a really significant injury won’t be present. Per Baseball Prospectus, the option also has a condition that “an independent physical exam determines Verlander does not have a right arm injury which would prevent him from being on the active roster for Opening Day 2025.”

That clause would protect clubs against the nightmare scenario where they trade for Verlander, he crosses the 140-inning mark but then requires Tommy John surgery or some other significant procedure. In that situation, Verlander would not have the right to exercise his player option. There’s still the chance of Verlander simply struggling due to his advancing age and triggering the player option, but there’s some downside protection there as well. As part of last year’s trade, the Mets agreed to cover half the option if it vests.

Verlander is making $43.33MM this year but the Mets are covering $31.3MM of that, as reported by Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press at the time of last year’s trade. That means the Astros are only on the hook for about $12MM this year, which will be down closer to $4MM by the time the deadline rolls around.

Despite his age, Verlander has continued to pitch extremely well and could be highly sought after this summer. His peripherals don’t really support his 2.08 ERA so far this year, since he has struck out just 19.1% of opponents while giving out walks at a 10.3% clip. He’s had help keeping runs off the board so far from a .239 batting average on balls in play and 93% strand rate. But it’s also a small sample size of three outings after being on the IL.

Last year wasn’t quite as dominant as his Cy Young-winning season in 2022, but he still put up a 3.22 ERA over his 27 starts. His 21.5% strikeout rate wasn’t strong but he also limited walks to a 6.7% clip.

Ultimately, there are a lot of factors that will determine whether Verlander is traded or not. The performance of the club will obviously be one of them, as Verlander would naturally be off the table if they get back into the playoff mix. If they stay out, Verlander’s feelings towards Houston might have him leaning against approving a trade, but he may prefer competing elsewhere if it’s a lost season for the Astros. It’s also unknown if the club would prefer to eat what they owe to Verlander to improve the prospect return, versus getting some other club to take on the money as a way of reducing their competitive balance tax calculation. Verlander staying healthy and pitching well will also be important, of course, especially with the player option up in the air.

There’s also the club’s long-term plans to consider. Max Scherzer wasn’t planning to leave the Mets last year until he found out the club was planning a sort of bridge year in 2024, which prompted him to approve a deal to the Rangers. If the Astros stay out of contention through the summer, they will have some tough decisions to make. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent and would be a logical trade candidate. Players like Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy are slated for free agency after 2025, meaning they could be kept for another chance at competing next year or could be made available this summer as part of a larger reset. If that latter possibility opens up, it seems fair to assume that Verlander’s desire to stay in Houston would diminish, for the rest of this year and 2025.

What do you think is most likely for Verlander in the months to come? Have your say in the poll below!

AL West Notes: Kirby, Rojas, Langford, Astros

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Mariners right-hander George Kirby underwent an MRI exam on his right knee yesterday, manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Adam Jude of the Seattle Times) prior to last night’s game against Houston. Servais didn’t provide details on the results of Kirby’s MRI but made clear that the imaging was precautionary and expressed optimism that Kirby will make be ready to make his next start. The righty was pulled from his start on Friday after just 88 pitches due to the issue, though following that game Kirby noted that his knee had been “bugging” him for the “past couple of weeks.” He’s pitched through it to this point, however, and like Servais suggested that he wasn’t concerned about the problem.

That’s surely a relief for the Mariners, Kirby has gotten off to a strong start this year. While his 3.76 ERA is actually just below league average by measure of ERA+, he currently sports a career-best 26.3% strikeout rate to go along with a 2.6% walk rate, while his 65.4% strand rate is much lower than is sustainable through seven starts. Given that, it’s no surprise that Kirby has some of the best peripheral numbers in the league with a 2.08 FIP, a 2.84 xERA, a 3.03 SIERA and a 3.10 xFIP.

That type of production is extremely hard to replace, and Mariners fans are surely hoping that Kirby’s knee issue is as minor as he and the team believe it to be. Should Kirby require a trip to the IL, the Mariners could turn to struggling Triple-A starter Levi Stoudt or perhaps non-roster veteran Dallas Keuchel to fill out the rotation while youngster Bryan Woo finishes up a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level.

More from around the AL West…

  • Sticking with the Mariners, Servais indicated to reporters (including Jude) yesterday that the club is hoping to get infielder Josh Rojas additional at-bats going forward. Rojas has gotten off to a hot start this year as part of a platoon with Luis Urias at third base, slashing .338/.420/.535 in 82 trips to the plate. Per Servais, the solution to that could be moving Rojas to left field on days that Urias is playing the hot corner. With Dominic Canzone on the injured list, Seattle has primarily relied on Luke Raley and Dylan Moore in left this season but neither has taken hold of the position with particularly strong offensive numbers, so affording more playing time to Rojas and Urias could be a way to bolster an offense that ranks 22nd in the majors with a 96 wRC+, including a 58 wRC+ in left field.
  • Rangers youngster Wyatt Langford entered the season as a widely-speculated AL Rookie of the Year candidate after he fought his way onto the Opening Day roster with an incredible Spring Training, but he’s scuffled somewhat in the early going this season with a wRC+ of just 68 and an ISO of just .069 that puts him in the bottom five among all qualified outfielders this year in terms of power production. Now, however, Langford may be dealing with an injury on top of his struggles at the plate after he exited last night’s game with tightness in his right hamstring, as noted Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today. Should Langford require a trip to the IL, the club would likely turn to veteran outfielder Travis Jankowski to fill out the lineup in his absence.
  • Astros outfielder Chas McCormick has only been on the injured list for a few days, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that he is already making good progress in his rehab from a right hamstring issue. Per Espada, McCormick has begun running and is nearing the point where he’ll be able to begin batting practice, adding that the club hopes to get the 29-year-old out for a minor league rehab assignment “pretty soon.” McCormick scuffled at the plate to open the season this year but was one of the club’s strongest contributors in 2023, when he slashed .273/.353/.489 in 115 games.
  • Sticking with the Astros, Espada also provided an update to reporters (including McTaggart) about injured right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers last pitched in the majors in late 2022 but has now progressed to throwing off a mound in his rehab process. It’s a major step for McCullers, who has made just eight starts since the end of the 2021 postseason due to flexor tendon issues. When healthy enough to take the mound, McCullers has been an impact starter for the Astros with a 2.96 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 36 starts from 2021-22. The right-hander isn’t expecting to return to action until later this summer, though yesterday’s news appears to indicate he remains on track to pitch for the club this season.

Blue Jays Acquire Joel Kuhnel

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Joel Kuhnel from the Astros in exchange for cash considerations, per an announcement from both teams. Toronto optioned Kuhnel to Triple-A Buffalo following his addition. The Blue Jays had an open space on their 40-man roster for Kuhnel, who was designated for assignment earlier this week, and do not need to make a corresponding move to add him to the roster.

Kuhnel, 29, has now changed teams via cash deal for the second time in as many seasons. An eleventh-round pick by the Reds in the 2016 draft, Kuhnel made his debut with the Reds back in 2019 and pitched to a decent 4.66 ERA (103 ERA+) with a 4.25 FIP in 9 2/3 innings of work. Despite that solid cup of coffee at the big league level, the right-hander wouldn’t get regular playing time in the majors until the 2022 season, when he posted a brutal 6.36 ERA despite a much stronger 3.96 FIP. He remained with the Reds until he was traded to Houston in June of last year but has not received much run in the big leagues since, with a 7.20 ERA and 5.84 FIP in 15 innings of work across the past two seasons, including a spot start with the Astros earlier this year that saw him allow four runs in two innings of work.

Overall, Kuhnel heads to Toronto with a career 6.30 ERA that’s nearly 30% worse than league average but a much more manageable 4.53 FIP along with decent strikeout and walk rates of 19% and 6.3% respectively suggest he could still be a valuable depth piece for the club’s bullpen. That possibility is further backed up by solid results at the Triple-A level with the Astros this year, as he’s posted a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings as a multi-inning relief arm in the highly inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League this year.

The Blue Jays have struggled to a 16-18 record this season in part thanks to brutal production from their bullpen, which has a league-worst 5.28 FIP to go with a 5.11 ERA that sits in the bottom five among all major league relief corps. Kuhnel is unlikely to impact the back of the club’s bullpen alongside the likes of Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia, but it’s at least feasible to imagine him offering an alternative to a struggling arm such as Genesis Cabrera.

Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

MLBTR Podcast Mailbag: José Abreu Demoted, The Positional Surplus Myth, Erick Fedde’s Trade Value And More

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • José Abreu agreeing to be optioned by the Astros (2:50)
  • Upcoming knee surgery for Mike Trout of the Angels (5:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Given that a surplus can quickly disappear with injuries, will teams be more reluctant to trade from positions of relative strength? (6:50)
  • When will Jackson Jobe of the Tigers or Junior Caminero of the Rays be called up? (14:30)
  • Is it true that the White Sox can’t pick higher than tenth in next year’s draft? (18:20)
  • What is the current state of Tommy John surgery and longevity of pitchers after going under the knife? (22:00)
  • When can a team trade a recently-signed free agent? (28:50)
  • If Erick Fedde keeps pitching well, what kind of return could the White Sox get for him at the deadline? (30:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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