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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine have been in place for six years now. The team has a winning record under their leadership, but the last two seasons have ended in disappointment, with the Twins missing the postseason by a wide margin despite heading into the year as projected contenders. They’ll enter the offseason with a large amount of payroll space, though that’s due partly to last winter’s marquee signing opting out of his contract.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Byron Buxton, OF: $90MM through 2028 ($15MM base salary can increase to $23MM annually based on MVP voting)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $9.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2024)
  • Jorge Polanco, 2B: $8.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2024; contract also contains $12MM club option for 2025)
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $7.75MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026; contract also contains $7MM club option for 2026, $8.5MM club option for 2027)*
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $3.125MM through 2023 (can earn up to $10MM of incentives based on games started, innings pitched)

*=Dobnak is in the organization but no longer on the 40-man roster

Total 2023 commitment: $35.625MM
Total long-term outlay: $118.875MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Twins’ first order of business will be determining whether they have a legitimate chance to retain Carlos Correa, who’s already said he’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his contract. The only long-term commitment of note on the books is Byron Buxton’s $15MM annual salary through the 2028 season, leaving plenty of room for the Twins to put forth a market-value offer with what would be the first $30MM+ annual salary in club history.

The question, of course, is whether the front office feels it’s wise to do so and whether owner Jim Pohlad will green-light that franchise-record expenditure. For his part, Correa has effused praise for the Twins since day one. He’s since said on record multiple times that his family enjoys living there and that he personally “loves” manager Rocco Baldelli and the clubhouse environment.

Pleasantries are all well and good this time of year, but Correa has also made clear that he’s seeking a long-term deal and will again become a free agent if the two parties cannot agree to an extension. Falvey has said on record that the Twins have talked contract with agent Scott Boras since the season ended, also expressing a willingness to “get creative” on a deal. Cynics would suggest that’s corporate-speak implying the Twins aren’t prepared to offer a straightforward long-term pact, but it was a somewhat “creative” offer that brought Correa to Minneapolis in the first place. He still seems likely to test the market, but the Twins have another couple weeks to convince him to stay.

If Correa indeed opts out and signs elsewhere, the Twins will be left with a hole at shortstop but also a heaping amount of payroll space. All four of their club option decisions are easy to decipher. Miguel Sano, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer will be bought out, and all are likely to sign elsewhere. Sonny Gray’s $12.5MM club option is a no-brainer to exercise. In a scenario where Correa departs and Gray is picked up, the Twins will have around $50MM committed to next year’s books.

There are arbitration-eligible players to consider, but that’ll only add another $30MM or so to the ledger. The Twins opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the neighborhood of $142MM, but even with Gray returning and only a handful of non-tenders, they’ll clock in around $80-82MM in commitments. Even if 2022’s Opening Day mark is set as a firm ceiling — which it likely is not — the front office has a lot of financial freedom this winter.

Where can the Twins reallocate those resources? Frankly, just about anywhere. The lineup has few guarantees, though that’s generally due to flexibility afforded by key young players.

Luis Arraez spent a large chunk of time at first base this season and won a batting title in the process, but he can play second base, third base and even some left field if needed. Rookie Jose Miranda also spent time at first base, but he rose through the system as a third baseman and could man the hot corner if the Twins prefer to trade Gio Urshela and go with Miranda/Arraez at the corners. Doing so could bring back some bullpen help or a decent minor league asset and free up another $9MM or so.

If Correa doesn’t return, the Twins can turn shortstop over to former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis, though he’s rehabbing a second tear of his right ACL and thus shouldn’t be considered a lock to handle shortstop from the jump (if at all). Lewis is another candidate to play multiple positions at some point and could do so as soon as next year, depending on which course the Twins chart.

If Minnesota isn’t willing to pay top-of-the-market money for the marquee shortstop they already know and love, Correa, it stands to reason that fellow free agent Trea Turner will be out of their comfort zone. But both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will be free agents this winter, and while both figure to command nine-figure contracts, they’ll likely be less expensive than Turner and Correa. Barring another splash in the deep end of the free-agent pool, the Twins could look to a shorter-term veteran like Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias to help ease Lewis into a larger role.

There’s similar flexibility and uncertainty in the outfield. Byron Buxton remains one of the most talented players in MLB on a per-game basis but also one of the most oft-injured. He hit 28 homers in just 92 games but missed time with a hip strain before undergoing season-ending knee surgery in September. Max Kepler has been a stalwart in right field, and his pull-happy approach could make him a beneficiary of the forthcoming limitations on infield shifts. However, Kepler has never replicated the fly-ball rates (and subsequent power output) he showed in the juiced-ball 2019 season that saw him club 36 home runs. With just one guaranteed year to go on his contract (plus an option), he could be a trade candidate as the Twins look to open space for younger players.

Among those younger options are snakebitten corner outfielders Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Both are former first-rounders and consensus top-50 prospects in the league, but both have seen their early careers waylaid by injury. Kirilloff, who’s twice undergone wrist surgery, was particularly touted. That duo can play the corners, and Kirilloff has plenty of experience at first base as well, further adding to the aforementioned infield flexibility. Twin Cities native and former No. 39 overall draft pick Matt Wallner is another right field option who made his big league debut in 2022 and could factor into next year’s group.

If the Twins do trade Kepler, there’s an argument that they ought to bring in a different veteran to stabilize/complement the in-house group — ideally a right-handed hitter. The most wide-eyed dreamers among Twins fans can point to the payroll space and last March’s stunning Correa deal as justification for an “anything is possible” mentality, but Aaron Judge is scarcely worth a mention here. Still, a short-term veteran could at least be in play as an occasional left fielder and designated hitter, depending on what happens with Kepler.

Behind the plate, the Twins remain high on Ryan Jeffers’ receiving and his power, but Falvey has specifically talked about bringing in another backstop to again utilize a “co-catcher” method that divides playing time more evenly than the traditional starter/backup pairing. As Falvey plainly noted, Jeffers was particularly adept against left-handed pitching.

The Twins haven’t labeled the still-25-year-old Jeffers a pure platoon option, but they’ll want someone who can help out against right-handed pitching. This year’s free-agent class isn’t a great one in that regard, though Omar Narvaez has a nice track record against righties despite a down showing in 2022. Willson Contreras, the market’s top catcher, would bolster the offense against righties and lefties alike, and the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to make them a dark-horse landing spot. The trade market will have options ranging from clear starters (Oakland’s Sean Murphy, Toronto’s Danny Jansen) to out-of-options fliers (the Angels’ Matt Thaiss).

The depth on the pitching staff is more suspect. Twins starters ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.11 ERA and 27th with 782 2/3 innings in 2022. Some of that was by design, at least early on. For instance, Minnesota inked Chris Archer to an incentive-laden deal that allowed him to boost his salary based on games started and outings of three or more innings in length. The plan was to ease him into the year with short outings and build him up, but Archer never built up to the workload the team envisioned. Rotation-mate and fellow offseason signee Dylan Bundy had averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start from 2019-21 and averaged under five innings per start with the Twins in ’22. He likely was never viewed as a potential workhorse.

That approach placed undue stress on a bullpen that, beyond breakout arms Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, had few alternatives for much of the season. The Twins swung what looked like one of the better deals of the deadline, bringing in All-Star reliever Jorge Lopez from the Orioles, but Lopez struggled greatly with his command following the swap and wasn’t able to replicate his Baltimore form.

We don’t need a full breakdown of what went wrong for the Twins’ staff for the purposes of outlining the forthcoming offseason. The end-of-season results — 20th in rotation ERA/27th in innings; 15th in bullpen ERA/third in innings — are telling. For the Twins to remedy things in 2022, they’ll need more innings and more quality from the rotation and/or a deeper and more talented bullpen to help offset the lack of innings from the starting staff.

Returning to the 2022 rotation will be the aforementioned Gray and right-hander Joe Ryan, who dubiously led Twins pitchers with 147 innings. Both were strong mid-rotation arms, though Gray was hampered by hamstring injuries that limited him to 119 2/3 innings. Kenta Maeda will also be healed from Tommy John surgery, and Minnesota will hope for better health from deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle, for whom they surrendered three prospects in a deal with the Reds.

Mahle, like Gray, was an above-average starter with the Reds prior to his acquisition and was particularly effective away from the homer-happy confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He hit the injured list with a “minor” shoulder strain in July, returned to make two solid outings prior to the deadline, and landed in Minnesota as a hopeful rotation boost down the stretch. Instead, he twice went back on the injured list with shoulder troubles and made only four total starts as a Twin. Falvey has said since the season ended that Mahle “has been evaluated beyond the traditional MRI” and that the team believes the strain led to some weakness in Mahle’s rotator cuff. The expectation is that he’ll be healthy in 2023.

A healthy quartet of Ryan, Gray, Mahle and Maeda would be a solid start to any staff, and the Twins have some in-house options to join them. Righties Bailey Ober, Josh Winder and Simeon Woods Richardson have all pitched in the Majors — Ober extensively so, dating back to a quietly solid rookie effort in 2021. Winder missed time in 2022 due to shoulder troubles but was a top-100 prospect prior to this year’s debut and at times looked quite impressive. Woods Richardson had a promising year in the upper minors and made his MLB debut in the season’s final week. Top prospect Jordan Balazovic had a lost season, spending a month on the shelf with a knee strain and struggling for the majority of the Triple-A campaign thereafter.

Twins fans will call for the team to pursue a front-line starter, but the reality is that consecutive poor finishes makes that a far more difficult task. Veterans Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom will likely prioritize signing with more clearly defined contenders. Lefty Carlos Rodon would be a more feasible target if the Twins are willing to dole out their first nine-figure pitching contract in franchise history, but he should clear the Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) contracts — perhaps by a wide margin.

Right-hander Kodai Senga, ace of Nippon Professional Baseball’s SoftBank Hawks, will pursue MLB opportunities this offseason, too, but the competition for him will be fierce. The market does feature a number of solid second-tier options, with Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Mike Clevinger, Noah Syndergaard and Tyler Anderson among them.

In the bullpen, the Twins will hope Duran, Lopez and Jax can pair with lefties Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran to anchor the late innings. Hard-throwing righty Jorge Alcala missed nearly the whole season with an elbow issue but is expected back in ’23. It’s a talented group that looks far better than the unit they had early in 2022, but after generally eschewing veteran additions a year ago (save for a one-year flier on Joe Smith, who was released over the summer), the Twins should place more of an emphasis on adding stability. Minnesota’s lack of depth was exposed in 2022 when Tyler Duffey declined and trade pickup Emilio Pagan regularly proved unreliable, despite persistent opportunities (due largely to said lack of depth). The latter now seems likely to be traded or non-tendered following a disastrous year.

The only multi-year free agent deal the current front office has given to a reliever is Addison Reed’s two-year, $16.75MM deal, and that was six years ago. In fact, as far as I can tell, that’s the only multi-year deal given to a free-agent reliever by the Twins since the turn of the century (though they’ve extended in-house star closers like Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins).

In other words, don’t expect this team to break the bank for Edwin Diaz. If the Twins want to break that multi-year trend, the top names with a chance at three- and two-year deals include Robert Suarez, Kenley Jansen and (more quietly) Rafael Montero. More realistically, the Twins will bide their time and wait out the market for relievers open to one-year deals. That strategy has backfired recently (Smith, Alex Colome) but paid off at times in the past (Tyler Clippard).

Few teams in baseball have as much money coming off the books as the Twins this winter, and they could further add to that stockpile of resources by trading a veteran they feel they can replace internally (e.g. Kepler, Urshela). That should give the Twins the financial latitude to pursue just about any endeavor they choose, and at least as far as the lineup goes, they’re deep in young options.

This version of the Minnesota front office has typically eschewed long-term commitments in free agency, with Josh Donaldson’s four-year deal marking the only time they’ve signed a free agent for more than three years. Given the clean payroll outlook, a strong free-agent class and mounting pressure to return to contention in the AL Central, it’s arguable that this offseason is the time to deviate from that risk-averse approach.

Quick Hits: Twins, Rays, Minor League CBA

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The Twins announced that they have hired Nick Paparesta to be the club’s head athletic trainer. Paparesta has spent the previous 12 years in the same role for the Athletics. Prior to that, he spent five years with the Rays and 11 years with Cleveland.

A new head athletic trainer usually wouldn’t be especially noteworthy, but there are a couple of reasons to think this could be an impactful move for Minnesota. Reporting on the vacancy last week, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune pointed out that there’s been a large amount of turnover in the club’s strength and conditioning departments, including having three different head trainers since 2016.

Also, the Twins were leading the AL Central for much of 2022 before a rash of injuries dragged them down to a 78-84 finish. While the training staff can’t be reasonably blamed for every health issue that pops up, any improvement in that department could have big ramifications for the club. If Paparesta can provide some stability to the department, it could help the Twins on the field, especially with a roster that features some players with injury concerns, such as Byron Buxton, Tyler Mahle, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis and others.

Some other notes from around the league…

  • The Tigers recently hired Rob Metzler to be their assistant general manager, plucking him from the Rays organization. Since Metzler had been working as senior director of amateur scouting for Tampa, that left them with a vacancy in their scouting department. The Rays turned inward to replace Metzler, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Times reports that they promoted Chuck Ricci to director of amateur scouting. Ricci has spent the past nine seasons as national crosschecker for the Rays and has evidently impressed the organization enough to get a bump up the ladder. Additionally, David Hamlett was promoted to assistant director of amateur scouting. The Rays have earned a reputation for finding talented young players from various areas, something that is essential for their success as a franchise that typically doesn’t spend at high levels. Though the departure of Metzler will surely create challenges for them, the club will be hoping that Ricci and Hamlett can step up and fill the void.
  • In recent months, the Major League Baseball Players Association sought to represent minor league players in negotiations with the league, an effort that ultimately proved successful. The arrangement became official in mid-September, with an arbiter validating the organization efforts of the union and the league agreeing to recognize the MLBPA as the bargaining representatives for minor leaguers. It was reported around that time that minor leaguers would be negotiating a separate agreement to the one that affects major leaguers, and Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports that those talks have now begun. As the recent MLB CBA negotiations showed, these situations can drag on for months, so it’s unclear how long this agreement will take. It might also prove to be even more challenging since these are uncharted waters, with minor leaguers having never been unionized before. More details will surely emerge as the negotiations play out, but many minor league players have been vocal about dissatisfaction with various elements of their work environments, including housing and payment, among others.

AL Central Notes: Maddon, White Sox, Hedges, Guardians, Twins

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As the White Sox continue to hunt for a new manager, one prominent name yet to be involved in the mix is Joe Maddon.  The former Rays/Cubs/Angels skipper told the Cubs Talk podcast (on NBC Sports Chicago, hat tip to Tim Stebbins) that “I’ve not heard from [the White Sox] at all,” though Maddon would “of course…be interested” in chatting with the team.  Maddon has yet to be publicly linked to any of the open managerial vacancies this winter, though he has remained in the news due to a publicity tour for his upcoming book.

For a White Sox team that is reportedly hoping to replace Tony La Russa with another experienced manager, Maddon would seem like an intriguing candidate on paper, given both his long and successful track record and his past Chicago ties.  However, of the four candidates linked thus far to the Sox job, two (Ron Washington and Ozzie Guillen) have past experience managing in the majors, while the other two (Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol and Astros bench coach Joe Espada) would be first-time skippers at the MLB level.

More from around the AL Central…

  • There is mutual interest between the Guardians and Austin Hedges in a reunion, Guards president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes and other reporters.  Hedges is slated for free agency this winter, and was again one of the game’s stronger defensive catchers.  For a Guardians team that has prioritized glovework and game-calling behind the plate, this has been enough to ensure regular playing time for Hedges, despite his lack of production as a hitter.  Hedges has hit only .189/.247/.331 over 2001 career plate appearances with San Diego and Cleveland — his 54 wRC+ is the lowest of any player in baseball (minimum 2000 PA) since the start of the 2015 season.  The Guardians have prospect Bo Naylor knocking on the door and another veteran catcher in Luke Maile until arbitration control, though Maile is a non-tender candidate.  Hedges’ price tag shouldn’t be too prohibitive, which could allow Cleveland to create some competition in Spring Training and perhaps make Maile the odd man out even if he was tendered a contract.
  • The Twins are looking for a new head trainer this offseason, once again looking to fill a position that has been a revolving door for the organization.  As La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune points out, the Twins have already had three head trainers since 2016, and there has been plenty of other personnel turnover in the strength and conditioning departments.  While it’s common for teams to regularly undergo some staffing changes, the lack of consistency stands out in regards to the Twins, given that they were buried by injuries throughout the season.

Eduardo Nunez Announces Retirement

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Former major league infielder Eduardo Nunez announced his retirement from professional baseball today in a post to his Instagram. “Today, it is with mixed emotions that I officially announce my retirement from professional baseball,” Nunez wrote. “I had the opportunity of a lifetime to play the game I love for more than a decade while competing for five amazing MLB teams.”

Nunez, 35, played for the Yankees, Twins, Giants, Red Sox, and Mets during a career that spanned 11 seasons in the majors. His last season in the majors was 2020, when he appeared in two games for the Mets. He played in the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 2021 and did not play professionally during the 2022 season.

He made his major league debut with the Yankees in 2010, the first of four seasons spent in a utility role in their uniform. During his time in the Bronx, Nunez slashed .267/.313/.379 (86 wRC+) in 270 games while logging time at second base, third base, shortstop, and both outfield corners. Nunez’s career as a member of the Yankees ended when he was traded to Minnesota in 2014, where his career would begin to improve, with the highlight of his Twins tenure being the 2016 season that earned Nunez not only his only career All-Star appearance, but a deadline trade to the Giants. That season, he slashed .288/.325/.432 (101 wRC+) while splitting time between second base, third base, and shortstop.

Nunez would remain with the Giants until the following year’s trade deadline, when he would be swapped to the Red Sox. He re-signed with Boston during the 2017-18 offseason, and split time between second and third base while batting .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 127 games as the Red Sox won 108 games en route to a World Series championship. Nunez remained with Boston in 2019, appearing in 60 games before being designated for assignment in July.

Altogether, Nunez spent parts of 17 seasons playing professional baseball and batted .276/.310/.404 (90 wRC+) in his 3008 major league plate appearances, collecting 776 hits, 142 stolen bases, and 1136 total bases along the way. MLBTR wishes Nunez the best in his future pursuits now that his playing career has officially come to a close.

Danny Coulombe Outrighted By Twins, Elects Free Agency

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The Twins have outrighted left-hander Danny Coulombe, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Coulombe cleared waivers and elected free agency.

Coulombe, 33 next week, has been on and off the Twins’ roster over the past few years. He was signed to a minor league deal prior to the 2020 season, got his contract selected but was designated for assignment shortly thereafter. He signed another minors deal for 2021 and spent a few months with the team before losing his roster spot at year’s end again.

A third straight minor league deal followed prior to 2022, with Coulombe getting selected to the big league team once again. He tossed 12 1/3 innings with a 1.46 ERA despite a 17% walk rate but made two trips to the IL due to a hip impingement that eventually required surgery. For his career, he’s thrown 192 2/3 innings with a 3.92 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 52.5% ground ball rate.

The Twins suffered a large number of injuries this season, leading to them placing many players on the 60-day injured list. However, since there’s no IL between the World Series and Spring Training, those players will soon have to take up roster spots once again. In anticipation of that, the club has been placing some players on waivers in recent weeks, having lost Caleb Hamilton to the Red Sox, Jake Cave to the Orioles and Jermaine Palacios to the Tigers, in addition to outrighting Jhon Romero, Devin Smeltzer and now Coulombe. Players who have more than three years of MLB service time or who have been previously outrighted in their career are eligible to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. Coulombe qualified on both counts.

Given that Coulombe and the Twins have continued to re-engage each other in recent years, it’s entirely possible that they do so again. However, Coulombe will be free to pursue other opportunities for the time being, while the club will likely wait and see how the lefty recovers from his surgery.

Twins Likely To Explore Catching Market This Offseason

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Though the Twins’ top priority at the moment is likely ascertaining whether they have a real chance to extend Carlos Correa before he formally triggers his opt-out clause, they’ll head into the winter with a lengthy list of needs. Among the priorities will be looking for some help behind the plate. President of baseball ops Derek Falvey recently spoke of the “co-catcher” model — that is, two catchers splitting time more evenly rather than a conventional starter/backup committee (link via Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic). He implied that there’s “an opportunity to match up” right-handed-hitting Ryan Jeffers with a partner who can provide some more offense against right-handed pitching.

Falvey notably emphasized that Jeffers isn’t viewed as a strict platoon candidate, but there’s little denying that the 25-year-old has been vastly more productive in platoon matchups to this point in his career. Jeffers hit .306/.377/.532 in a small sample of 70 plate appearances against southpaws this season and carries a career .263/.344/.450 output against left-handers. Comparatively, he’s batted just .185/.256/.361 against right-handers. From a pure power standpoint, Jeffers’ .187 ISO against lefties and .176 mark versus righties are comparable, but Jeffers strikes out more often and walks less against same-handed opponents. He also makes far less hard contact against righties and pops up nearly four times as often in those matchups as he does against lefties.

While the pure offensive splits do speak to a potential platoon scenario being advantageous, it’s also worth pointing out that Jeffers is still young and any such numbers are coming in a small sample. Though he’s been a prominent factor in the Twins’ catching mix since late in the 2020 season, injuries have limited his availability. Most recently, spent more than two months on the injured list this season due to a fractured thumb. Considering that Jeffers hit .276/.362/.427 against righties in his final full minor league season (2019), the Twins may not want to completely cut off his avenue to at-bats against right-handed pitching; there’s still time for him to improve in that regard.

Beyond that, limiting Jeffers to a platoon setup inherently subtracts as quality defensive player from the lineup. True, Jeffers’ 19% caught-stealing rate is five percentage points below the league average during his three years in the Majors, but he regularly grades out as a strong framer and has long drawn praise for his receiving skills on the whole. In about a season’s worth of innings over the past two years, he’s been credited for eight Defensive Runs Saved.

Still, there’s some obvious cause to add not just catching option who can provide some clout against right-handed opponents, but one who can shoulder the workload in the event of any additional absences from Jeffers. This year’s injury was fluky in nature, but the Twins’ system is generally thin on catching prospects at the moment, so adding a veteran who can step up and take a bigger role, if needed, makes good sense.

Unfortunately, among this year’s group of free-agent catchers, the options in that regard are fairly limited. Certainly, the market’s top catcher, Willson Contreras, would provide some extra thump against right- and left-handed pitching alike (and bring more than enough bat to occasionally mix in at DH), but the competition for him figures to be strong. Some lefty-swinging backstops are available in the form of Omar Narvaez and switch-hitting Tucker Barnhart, but neither did much against righties or lefties in 2022. Both are coming off down seasons, though Narvaez in particular does carry a career .268/.345/.406 line against right-handers. The trade market will present everything from top-tier regularsi (Oakland’s Sean Murphy) to out-of-options rolls of the dice (the Angels’ Matt Thaiss).

The quintet of Jeffers, Gary Sanchez, Sandy Leon, Caleb Hamilton and Jose Godoy combined for a .197/.275/.355 batting line while catching in 2022, equating to an 81 wRC+ that ranked 17th in the Majors. Twins catchers were far from the sport’s least-productive unit, but that’s as much an indictment on the current production (or lack thereof) from catchers throughout the league as a testament to the Twins’ catching corps. Whichever route Falvey and his staff take, some form of complement to Jeffers feels inevitable. And, with only about $52.5MM on next year’s payroll (when factoring in Correa’s opt-out and the likely exercising of Sonny Gray’s club option), there’s plenty of room for upgrades up and down the roster.

The Twins’ Third Base Decision

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The Twins were one of baseball’s most aggressive teams last spring, and they’re in for another active offseason over the coming months. Carlos Correa has already implied he plans to opt out of the final two years of his contract, as expected. How to proceed at shortstop may be the biggest question facing president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff, but they’ll also have a call to make at the other position on the left side of the infield.

This past season, third base was primarily the purview of Gio Urshela. Acquired from the Yankees alongside Gary Sánchez in the deal that offloaded Josh Donaldson’s contract and sent Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Bronx, Urshela went on to start 131 games at the hot corner in Minneapolis. He stepped to the plate 551 times and hit at a solid .285/.338/.429 clip with 13 home runs and 27 doubles. By measure of wRC+, the Colombia native was 19 percentage points better than the league average hitter.

That represented a bounceback from a pedestrian final season in the Bronx, when Urshela hit .267/.301/.419 through 442 trips to the dish. He didn’t recapture his breakout 2019-20 form — a combined .310/.358/.523 mark — but he no doubt had a productive offensive season. He finished the year well, hitting .294/.343/.419 after the calendar flipped to September. Urshela doesn’t take many walks, but he makes contact at an above-average rate and has enough power to approach or exceed 30 doubles and 15 homers during his best seasons.

While Urshela has been an above-average hitter in three of the past four seasons, his defense draws more variable feedback from public metrics. Ultimate Zone Rating has consistently pegged him as an above-average third baseman, which aligns with the general reputation he’d had as a prospect. Defensive Runs Saved has varied in its enthusiasm for his work but comes in slightly positive overall, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average has rated him as a below-average defender in every season of his career. There’s a fair bit of variability in all public defensive metrics, but Urshela has proven particularly divisive across those measures. Consider his cumulative runs compared to average as a third baseman by each measure since he emerged as a regular with the Yankees in 2019:

  • UZR: +6.4
  • DRS: +5
  • Statcast: -9

The Twins’ internal evaluation of Urshela’s defense could go a long way towards determining how they proceed at third base. The 31-year-old is under club control for another season, and Minnesota could simply pencil him back into the everyday lineup. He’s a valuable player, and there’s something to be said for retaining stability. Yet the Twins will have to weigh his production against a fairly lofty salary; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Urshela to receive roughly $9.2MM for his final year of arbitration eligibility.

That’s certainly not an outlandish figure, particularly if the Twins view Urshela as an above-average defender. At the same time, it’s not a completely insignificant sum for a team that entered this season with a franchise-record payroll in the $134MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming Correa opts out and the Twins exercise their option on Sonny Gray while buying out Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, they’ll head into the offseason with roughly $51MM in guaranteed money on the books, according to Roster Resource. Minnesota’s arbitration class, led by Urshela, is projected for north of $37MM on top of that. Not everyone in the arb group will be tendered contracts — Emilio Pagán is projected for a $3.7MM salary and seems likely to be cut loose — but the Twins could have roughly $84MM in internal expenditures before looking to address shortstop, the bullpen and catcher.

An outright non-tender of Urshela would be a bit surprising. It’s easy to imagine the Twins entertaining trade possibilities, however, particularly with rookie corner infielder José Miranda an option to step in at third base. Miranda has always been a bat-first prospect, and he spent more time at first base than at third during his debut campaign. After hitting .268/.325/.426 through his first 483 MLB plate appearances, the 24-year-old Miranda is guaranteed a regular role somewhere in the lineup. Would the Twins feel comfortable turning to him on an everyday basis at third base, where he spent the majority of his minor league career? That’d leave more first base/DH at-bats for Luis Arraez, who’s not a good defender at either second or third, and potentially clear a path to at-bats for former top prospect Alex Kirilloff. Kirilloff will be returning from a second season decimated by wrist injuries and presumably has to earn his way into the lineup, but he has the offensive potential to do so.

Falvey indicated last week the team was at least open to Miranda playing more third than first moving forward (link via Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic). “We want to keep third base in his mix, for sure,” Falvey said. “We think he can play over there. It just worked out roster-wise that first is where he had to play a lot. I think our best team, our healthiest team, has Jose playing a lot of games at third, and some at first. But we want him to play both corners.”

The Twins’ baseball ops leader didn’t tip his hand as to whether that meant Urshela was likely to be on next year’s roster. “We’ll have some decisions to make, not just on him but a few others in the arbitration space,” Falvey said (via Gleeman). “He finished in a really good spot. He played really well down the stretch, and he was a great teammate, a great person in (the clubhouse). All of those are conversations we’ll start to have as we get closer to November and December.”

If the Twins did make Urshela available via trade (or non-tender), it’s easy to envision a few teams having interest. The D-Backs, Marlins, Cubs, Giants and Tigers could all look for third base help this offseason. There aren’t many obvious solutions available in free agency (particularly if Nolan Arenado sticks with the Cardinals by foregoing his opt-out clause or signing an extension), leaving the Twins to weigh their options with Urshela over the coming weeks.

19 Players Elect Free Agency

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Players hit minor league free agency on a daily basis during the postseason, as opposed to major league free agents who hit free agency following the World Series when their contracts expire. On Thursday, MLBTR covered 15 players who elected minor league free agency, and we will continue to provide occasional updates as players continue to hit the open market, as noted on the MiLB.com transactions log.

If a player is not on their organization’s 40-man roster at the end of the season, he will hit minor league free agency as long as he has at least 3 years of MLB service time, been assigned outright more than once in his career, and/or has played in the minor leagues for parts of seven or more seasons. Everyone on today’s list is part of that group of players, and most will search for another minor league deal this offseason, though a few may manage to latch onto a major league club and secure a bench or bullpen spot entering the 2023 season.

Infielders:

Outfielders:

Pitchers:

15 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the postseason rolls along, players hit minor league free agency daily. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.

Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

MLBTR covered 34 players who qualified for minor league free agency last week. We’ll periodically provide updates as plenty more hit the open market, as reflected on the MiLB.com transactions log.

Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Twins Outright Devin Smeltzer, Jhon Romero

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The Twins have continued a busy few days of 40-man roster management, outrighting pitchers Jhon Romero and Devin Smeltzer after the pair cleared waivers, the team announced. Romero was outrighted to the minors, while Smeltzer elected free agency, per his MLB.com transaction log. It comes after the team recently lost outfielder Jake Cave, catcher Caleb Hamilton and infielder Jermaine Palacios on waivers.

Smeltzer, 27, tossed 70 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball across 12 starts and three relief appearances for the Twins this season. Advanced metrics were less impressed with Smeltzer’s work, and his FIP sat at 5.23. The lefty struck out just 13.9% of batters this season while giving up walks 6.6% of the time.

The Twins acquired Smeltzer from the Dodgers in 2018 in the Brian Dozier deal, and he’s logged 140 innings of work through parts of four seasons as a swingman. Smeltzer’s out of minor league options and having already been outrighted previously in his career, he had the option to elect free agency after passing through waivers. It seems likely he’ll land somewhere on a minor league deal as pitching depth.

Romero, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Nationals during spring training and pitched out of the Twins bullpen to start the season, logging just five innings of 3.60 ERA relief before going down with what would wind up being season-ending biceps tendinitis on April 23. Romero was signed as an international free agent out of Colombia by the Cubs in 2015, and was traded to the Nationals in the Brandon Kintzler deadline deal in 2018.

He throws a fastball, slider, changeup mix and struck out roughly a third of the batters faced as he came up through the minors. Romero’s spent most of the season on the 60-day IL, meaning he wasn’t occupying a spot on the 40-man roster. There remains no clear timeline on his recovery, but regardless of his injury status the Twins would have needed to add him back to the 40 man before the start of the offseason.

Following their recent bevy of moves, the Twins’ 40-man roster now stands at 36 players.

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