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J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez Will Not Opt Out Of Red Sox Contract

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As expected, J.D. Martinez will not enact the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal signed in February 2018 contained opt-outs after both last season and this season, and with Martinez staying put, he is slated to earn $19.375MM in each of the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Martinez already suggested near the end of the season that he wouldn’t be leaving his deal, so today’s news is no surprise.  After six years as one of the sport’s better batters, Martinez struggled badly in 2020, hitting only .213/.291/.389 with seven home runs over 237 plate appearances.  In an offseason with limited dollars to be spent anywhere around baseball, teams would have been far more focused on Martinez’s 2020 performance, his age (33), and his mostly DH-only status than his past track record, so it’s hard to imagine Martinez would have topped two years and $38.75MM in free agency.

For now, the question might be what the Red Sox can expect from Martinez going forward.  The slugger has been vocal about how his regular routine (everything from offseason work to in-game preparations such as watching video) was altered by the pandemic and COVID-19 protocols.  Since the 2021 season certainly looks like normal operations won’t revert back to a pre-2020 state, it will be up to Martinez to figure out new adjustments to get himself back on track at the plate.

J.D. Martinez Doesn’t Expect To Opt Out

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Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez will face an opt-out decision at season’s end, but the slugger told Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic and other reporters Friday that he’s unlikely to leave behind the remainder of his contract.

“Given the situation, I’m probably not leaning that way,” said Martinez, who will discuss the matter with agent Scott Boras.

It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Martinez stay put, as he’d otherwise be vacating the final two years and $38.75MM left on his deal. Martinez is slated to earn that money as part of the five-year, $110MM contract he signed before 2018, at which point the former Astro, Tiger and Diamondback was one of the sport’s most feared sluggers. Martinez continued to thrive in his first year in Boston, which he helped to a World Series then, but has since seen his production tumble.

While Martinez remained a terrific hitter last year, when he slashed .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances, those numbers still fell well shy of the otherworldly output he managed from 2016-17. Martinez could have opted out after last season, but he elected not to do so.

As for this season, it’s shocking how poorly Martinez has performed, as the 33-year-old owns a .217/.293/.389 line with a mere six homers over 222 trips to the plate. It’s the worst production Martinez has offered since 2013, his final season with the Astros and the last year before he broke through as a star offensive player.

Even if Martinez had another fine campaign, opting out would have been risky because of the uncertain economic landscape a pandemic-shortened season will present for baseball. Martinez even expressed leeriness about the upcoming free-agency period three weeks ago. Now, it looks even less likely he’ll return to the open market in the coming weeks.

J.D. Martinez Discusses Future

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Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez will have an opportunity to return to free agency during the upcoming offseason, but the 33-year-old designated hitter admitted to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe on Thursday that he’d be leery of testing the open market off a pandemic-shortened season.

Regarding the 60-game schedule, Martinez said: “I would not want to be a free agent during this time for that reason. You just don’t know.”

As Martinez implied, a shorter season is more conducive to strange outcomes – perhaps damaging ones for pending free agents – than a 162-game slate. For instance, one of the surprises of this season has been the typically great Martinez’s underwhelming production, and he’s running out of time to boost his numbers.

After a run as one of the game’s elite offensive players from 2014-19, which he divided among Detroit, Arizona and Boston, Martinez has put up a.234/.317/.406 line with just three home runs in 145 plate appearances. Martinez’s .172 isolated power number sits 80 points under last year’s figure (.252), while his hard-hit rate and Statcast numbers have also fallen off significantly since then.

Martinez’s 2o20 woes may just be a product of a much smaller sample size than normal, though he nonetheless hasn’t done himself any favors as a potential opt-out candidate. Once the offseason arrives, Martinez will have a chance to leave behind the remaining two years and $38.7MM of the five-year, $110MM contract he signed with Boston before the 2018 campaign. Martinez also had an opt-out chance last winter, but he decided to stay put on the heels of another fantastic season at the plate.

Considering how his season has gone, not to mention the economic uncertainty in the game, it’s hard to envision Martinez testing the market in a couple months. Regardless, Martinez emphasized to Speier that he’s “focusing on right now,” not his opt-out decision, and he lavished praise on the Red Sox and their fan base.

Red Sox Unlikely To Trade Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez

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At 11-22, the Red Sox are one of the league’s few clear sellers. In recent days, teams have been connected to each of Matt Barnes, Christian Vázquez, Kevin Pillar and Jackie Bradley, Jr. While those players all look like strong trade candidates, star shortstop Xander Bogaerts and designated hitter J.D. Martinez are unlikely to be traded before Monday’s deadline, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

That’s not particularly surprising, as Bogaerts and Martinez were always something of longshots to move because of their contractual situations. The former signed a six year, $120MM extension last April that’ll pay him around $3.5MM the rest of this season and guarantee him $20MM every year from 2021-25. For a player of Bogaerts’ caliber, that’s a more than reasonable rate in a vacuum. But teams are often reluctant to take on hefty financial commitments mid-season, and that’s all the more true in a year when every team is facing massive, pandemic-driven revenue losses.

It’s possible the Sox could explore a Bogaerts trade this offseason, although getting a deal done would hardly be much easier. His extension comes with a potential full no-trade clause that will kick in September 6, meaning Bogaerts could block any offseason move. He also has an opt-out clause after 2022, further complicating matters. If Boagerts continues to perform at an elite level, he’d very likely exercise that opt-out and hit free agency two-plus years from now. If he were to underperform or get bogged down by injury, any acquiring team would be on the hook for the entirety of the deal at fairly significant rates.

Those logistical challenges cast doubt on the likelihood of a trade, but Bogaerts continues to offer fantastic production. He’s been the seventh most valuable position player by fWAR since the start of 2018, hitting a robust .299/.372/.541 (137 wRC+) with solid defense at shortstop. Disappointing 2020 aside, Boston doesn’t seem ticketed for any sort of large-scale rebuild. They’d certainly be happy to continue slotting Bogaerts into the middle of the lineup if they’re not bowled over by a great offer.

While Bogaerts has continued to perform up to his lofty standards, Martinez has not. The 33-year-old would’ve been an obvious trade candidate had he been hitting anywhere near his 2018-19 levels, when he combined for a .317/.392/.593 line (154 wRC+) with 79 home runs in 1306 plate appearances. He’s off to a miserable start in 2020, though, mustering just a .207/.295/.371 mark through 31 games. More worrisome, Martinez’s average exit velocity is down over two miles per hour from last season (and over four MPH from his 2018 peak).

One poor month doesn’t negate Martinez’s elite track record, but it makes him a risky buy for potential contenders. He’s due a little over $4MM for the rest of this season and is guaranteed $38.75MM over the next two years. Martinez can opt out at the end of this season or next; while he once seemed a strong candidate to test free agency after 2020, it’s unlikely he’d do so unless he turns things around quickly. With ownership groups across the league hesitant to absorb much money, it seems Martinez will try to recapture his old form down the stretch at Fenway.

From Released To Elite

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J.D. Martinez did not start his major league career in auspicious fashion, but as a 20th-round pick in 2009, it’s remarkable that the outfielder even made his way to the bigs. Houston took Martinez in the draft, and though he was highly productive in the organization’s system through 2011, he was unable to transfer that success to the bigs from the get-go. Martinez amassed 975 plate appearances as an Astro from 2011-13, but he hit a subpar .251/.300/.387 with 24 home runs during that time. Houston gave up on Martinez after that.

On March 22, 2014, the Astros said goodbye to Martinez, releasing him a half-decade after drafting him. However, Martinez has been on a rampage since then. Thanks to the help of hitting coaches Craig Wallenbrock and Robert Van Scoyoc, Martinez has turned into one of the best offensive players in baseball over the past several years.

The Tigers signed Martinez to a minor league contract in March 2014, and it proved to be a brilliant move for the club. Martinez became a star that year, in which he posted a line of .300/.361/.551 (145 wRC+) in 1,886 plate appearances. But Detroit, not expecting to be able to sign the soon-to-be free agent before 2018, traded him to Arizona in July 2017 in a deal that netted them infield prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.

Unfortunately for Detroit, no one from the Lugo-Alcantara-King trio has given the team any value at the major league level thus far, and nobody from the that group is among MLB.com’s top 30 prospects for the Tigers right now. The D-backs probably don’t have any regrets, then, even though Martinez didn’t last long in their uniform. Over 257 PA in the desert, Martinez batted an incredible .302/.366/.741 (170 wRC+) with 29 homers, helping lead Arizona to a wild-card berth. The Diamondbacks got past that round against the Rockies, but they couldn’t overcome the Dodgers in the NLDS. That proved to be the end of the line for Martinez as part of the club.

After a drawn-out trip to free agency in the ensuing winter, the Red Sox signed Martinez to a five-year, $110MM guarantee in late February of 2018. There’s a narrative that players decline once they get a large payday, but that’s not the case for Martinez. Since he signed with Boston, Martinez has gone to a pair of All-Star Games, helped the Red Sox to a World Series championship (2018) and batted .317/.392/.593 (154 wRC+) with 79 homers in 1,306 PA. It’s obvious at this point that Martinez, now 32 years old, is among the premier hitters in baseball. Not bad for someone whom a team once gave up on in exchange for nothing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: JDM, Red Sox, Astros, Click, Yanks, LeMahieu

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Let’s check in on some of the American League’s highest-profile clubs…

  • Major League Baseball handed down its decision on Boston’s sign-stealing scandal from its World Series-winning season in 2018 a couple weeks ago, stripping the Red Sox of their second-round pick this year and suspending scout/replay coordinator J.T. Watkins for the upcoming campaign. Count designated hitter J.D. Martinez among those who are not pleased with Watkins’ short-term ban. The superstar slugger told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, “They just ruined this guy’s career with no evidence.” In regards to the overall punishment, Martinez said to Abraham: “If they went to court with that, it would get thrown out. There was nothing there. The judge would laugh.” 
  • Speaking of teams that have recently been embroiled in sign-stealing scandals … Astros general manager James Click succeeded Jeff Luhnow atop the front office in the offseason as a result of the prior regime’s transgressions. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle profiles Click, how he has adjusted to the job, how the rookie GM’s trying to work through the coronavirus and how he’s attempting to change the culture of a franchise in turmoil. As you’d expect, Click has stayed in touch with owner Jim Crane and new manager Dusty Baker during the pandemic. Regarding the Astros as a whole, Click said to Rome: “I have a better feel for the organization now. While it’s not ideal to do it remotely, it is certainly something that can be done. It’s hard to say how much more of a feel I have for the organization, but definitely more, and I’m hoping they also have a feel for me. We’re all still getting to know each other.”
  • As we covered last week, the Yankees could lose one of their MVPs, infielder DJ LeMahieu, when free agency opens next offseason. Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News argues that they shouldn’t risk it, writing that the Yankees need to do all they can to keep the soon-to-be 32-year-old LeMahieu from hitting the market with an extension. LeMahieu stated in March that he and the Yankees haven’t engaged in “serious” negotiations, so it’s unclear how much of a priority he is for New York. However, you can’t go against Ackert’s point that he’s a key part of the team’s current roster. LeMahieu played all over the Yankees’ infield after signing a two-year, $24MM contract going into last season, slashed .327/.375/.518 with 26 home runs and 5.4 fWAR in 655 plate appearances, and was in the running for AL MVP honors.

These Players Can Exit Their Contracts After 2020

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No matter if a Major League Baseball season takes place in 2020, there are certain players who will be in position to decide whether to exit their current contracts next winter. Whether it be by way of an opt-out clause or a mutual option, here’s a look at the players who will be able to choose to take their chances in free agency…

Opt-Outs

Back when the Marlins extended outfielder Giancarlo Stanton on a historic pact worth $325MM over 13 years in 2014, they included a one-time opt-out for next winter. Stanton has put up at least one phenomenal season since he signed that deal – he won the NL MVP and hit 59 home runs in 2017 – but injuries have hampered him on a regular basis. He’s now a member of the Yankees, who acquired him in a December 2017 deal, but Stanton played in just 18 games last season. He’ll still be owed $218MM for seven years after this season, and for at least the time being, it’s very tough to think of Stanton leaving that money on the table to test free agency.

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez, a member of the Yankees’ archrival in Boston, will have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract after this season. He’ll be 33 then, and will continue to be someone who’s known as a defensive liability, so should be opt out? It’s up for debate. The big-hitting Martinez remains an offensive standout, but his production last season fell (granted, he did still slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances). He subsequently chose not to opt out after last season, as doing so would have cost him his $23.75MM salary for this year.

One of Martinez’s former Tigers teammates, outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, will also have to choose whether to revisit free agency next offseason. Castellanos is another defensively challenged slugger, one whom the Reds guaranteed $64MM over four years this past winter. He’ll be 29 by the time the 2021 season rolls around, and by saying goodbye to his Reds pact, he’d be leaving $48MM on the table (including a $2MM buyout in 2024). It’s not easy to determine whether that will happen; some of it depends on how well Castellanos fares in 2020, if a season occurs. Carrying over the tremendous production he posted late last season after the Cubs acquired him from the Tigers may make Castellanos more inclined to try his luck on the market again, but his output at the plate has been more good than great throughout his career.

Mutual Options

For the most part, mutual options don’t get picked up. Either a player’s so effective that he opts for free agency or he’s not useful enough for his team to exercise the option. Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy and reliever Wade Davis are among those who have mutual option decisions waiting after the season, but they’ve struggled in the club’s uniform so far. With that in mind, Murphy’s on track for a $6MM buyout (as opposed to a $12MM salary), while Davis figures to receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $15MM payday.

Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun ($15MM mutual option, $4MM buyout), Diamondbacks right-hander Mike Leake ($18MM mutual option, $5MM buyout) and Cubs lefty Jon Lester ($25MM mutual option, $10MM buyout) could also find themselves looking for new contracts next winter. The same goes for Mets reliever Dellin Betances, though it’s tougher to say in his case. The former Yankee barely pitched at all season on account of injuries, and if there isn’t a season in 2020, would he turn down a guaranteed $6MM in 2021? And would the Mets buy him out for $3MM? That’s one of the many interesting questions we could face next offseason.

Red Sox Notes: Sale, Opener, Eovaldi, Martinez, Downs

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Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom declined to speculate on the status of southpaw Chris Sale before getting final word from the doctors. Sale underwent an MRI today for a sore elbow. As Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times covers via Twitter, Bloom acknowledged “concern” but also said that, “hopefully, it is just a bump in the road.” The team does have some information beyond what is known publicly; as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter, team doctors have already had a look at the imaging. But it seems that we’ll have to await the assessment of Dr. James Andrews before learning of Sale’ fate.

More from the Boston organization …

  • Even before this worrisome situation arose regarding Sale, the Red Sox have been toying with the idea of utilizing a starter at time in the upcoming season. As MLB.com’s Ian Browne reported recently, Bloom has been working with manager Ron Roenicke to work through the possibilities for employing such a strategy. Roenicke says the reasoning behind the concept is largely a reflection of the “personnel” available. Clearly, any lengthy absence from Sale would only increase the appeal.
  • On the positive side, the Sox have seen some encouraging signs from Nathan Eovaldi. As Browne further reports, the embattled righty says he “feel[s] really good” and believes his “mechanics are really good right now.” The results have been there to this point, not that there’s much sense putting too much stock in two spring appearances. But the Boston organization has to hope that the 30-year-old can sustain some momentum after a 2019 campaign in which he stumbled to a 5.99 ERA in 67 2/3 innings.
  • Veteran Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez held forth on a few labor topics with WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. The star expressed concern with the incentives teams have in constructing rosters. By his reckoning, baseball is “losing a lot of fans because teams are more motivate to lose than they are to win.” Martinez suggests that the competitive balance tax has had the opposite of its intended effect. He advocates for a “floor tax” by which teams would be penalized for under-spending. Ultimately, says Martinez, the game must “figure out a way to reward teams for competing and not reward them for losing” — or risk fading in relevance.
  • Infield prospect Jeter Downs was dropped into the Boston spotlight when he was included as a major component of the (re-formulated) Mookie Betts swap. As Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic writes (subscription link), the Sox are getting a player who’s known more as a dedicated grinder than for his flash. Though Downs wasn’t in the initial iteration of the Betts deal, he wasn’t an afterthought. It seems the Red Sox have long had eyes for the 21-year-old and were particularly impressed by some mid-2019 tweaks that both reflected Downs’s attention to detail and raised his foreseeable ceiling as a hitter.

AL Notes: Devers, Kopech, Martinez, Rangers

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We’re coming up on the three-year anniversary of the White Sox–Red Sox Chris Sale blockbuster. It’s tough to say either team regrets that deal at this point. Sale was instrumental in Boston’s 2018 World Series run and remains one’s of baseball’s best pitchers. Chicago, meanwhile, has reaped the benefits of a Yoán Moncada breakout season that saw him garner a down-ballot MVP vote. Michael Kopech, meanwhile, remains one of the sport’s most exciting young pitchers.

That pair (along with Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz) weren’t the only Boston farmhands the White Sox were targeting. At one point, Chicago asked for Rafael Devers, then a 20 year-old in High-A, Chicago general manager Rick Hahn tells David Laurila of Fangraphs. Suffice it to say, Boston has to feel good about rebuffing Devers’ potential inclusion, as he garnered even more MVP support than did Moncada after a breakout 2019 of his own. There’s no indication Devers talks ever got close, it should be noted, but it’s still an interesting counterfactual given the star player he has since become. Some more from the American League:

  • Speaking of Kopech, Hahn tells Laurila the fireballer is progressing as expected in his return from Tommy John surgery. The 23-year-old, who went under the knife in September 2018, logged a few innings in instructional league and enters the offseason fully healthy, per the GM. The club will no doubt be careful not to overwork the prized right-hander next season, but he seems on track to be a key factor in Chicago’s rotation mix. Kopech had dazzled in Triple-A in the two months preceding his big league call-up.
  • J.D. Martinez opted into his three-year, $62.5MM deal with the Red Sox earlier this month. Rob Bradford of WEEI hears that decision wasn’t an especially difficult one, “hardly coming down to the wire.” That seemingly reflects some tepidness among potential Martinez suitors as agent Scott Boras explored the star hitter’s market in advance of the decision. Speaking entirely speculatively, that could tamp down the likelihood of Martinez opting out after next season (at which point he’ll have to decide on a two-year, $38.7MM deal) or of the Sox finding a buyer if they look to shop Martinez this offseason as a means of cutting payroll. That said, Martinez remains an elite hitter, and other teams’ circumstances and interest can no doubt change in the coming months.
  • The Rangers unveiled a new $12.5MM academy in the Dominican Republic Friday, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. As Grant details, the facility is a significant step forward from previous conditions for Texas’ international signees. The Rangers’ front office believes that improving conditions for their youngest prospects will help them flourish on the field; current MLB first baseman Ronald Guzmán tells Grant that in the team’s previous cramped facility, illnesses spread among players quickly, which could no doubt have an adverse impact on players’ performance. Independent on any on-field benefits they’ll reap, the organization deserves credit for improving conditions for its players.

Boras On Free Agency, Cole, Strasburg, Castellanos, JDM

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Major League Baseball’s previous couple offseasons didn’t necessarily favor the players. Some free agents sat on the open market far longer than expected, while others signed for less than expected or didn’t receive guaranteed contracts (or any deals) at all. Count the game’s most famous agent, Scott Boras, among those disgusted with the way free agency has gone in recent years, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today details. Speaking at this week’s GM meetings, the always colorful Boras lamented the lack of teams going all-out to win, saying that “the industry is in a competitive hibernation, and the fans are reacting to it,” referring to drops in attendance (as Nightengale notes, even the Nationals, Astros and Yankees drew fewer fans).

“We got a decline in attendance. We got owners charging more for generations that want to see the game, while we’re losing a generation of young people that are only interested in competition,” said Boras. “Clubs feel there are greater rewards for losing than winning. And there is nothing to drive them to win because they don’t think it’s smart.’’

Boras even took aim at current commissioner Rob Manfred, whom he criticized for finding the luxury tax and the present system as a whole “wonderful.” That system, in Boras’ estimation, is “corrupt,” as it fails to “properly place progressive values of players at all. It’s always regressive.”

Of course, Boras’ hope is that the system doesn’t penalize his newest free-agent clients. And he’s representing several prominent players now on the open market, including superstar right-handers Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Boras is also the agent for Red Sox J.D. Martinez, who elected against opting out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract. The agent discussed those clients this week.

In regards to Cole, who looks likely to smash David Price’s record guarantee of $217MM for a pitcher, Boras stated (via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer): “If this were major-league Christmas, we would be looking at 30 stockings that clearly wanted a lump of Cole. I think starting pitching has become back in vogue. It’s an aggressive market.”

Boras also represents outfielder Bryce Harper, who signed the largest deal ever for a free agent last winter at 13 years and $330MM. He opined that Cole and Strasburg are in line to have even more teams after them than Harper did last offseason, per Breen. And while there has been speculation that Cole, a Southern California native, wants to sign with a West Coast team, that’s not necessarily the case.

“I don’t think geography matters to any of these guys as much as the continuance of winning and being able to achieve their goal of getting that rare ring,” Boras said. “And I think in Gerrit’s case, when you’re that close, you’re looking at this process as one where I’ve got a box to check and I want to go out and put together the best effort to put me in that position to do that.”

You wouldn’t expect Boras to say anything else in this case, as doing so could have decreased his client’s earning power. But, regardless of whatever geographic preference Cole may or may not have, the East Coast-stationed Phillies will heavily push for him, Breen reports. They won the bidding for Harper a year ago, and though general manager Matt Klentak has suggested he’s averse to signing more free agents saddled with qualifying offers (as Harper was, and as Cole is), Cole would greatly help a Phillies rotation in dire need of front-end aid.

The Phillies are among the teams that may be in the market for “a lump of Cole,” but that wasn’t the last of Boras’ holiday-themed metaphors. In regards to Castellanos, he stated (per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic): “Old Saint Nick delivers once a year. Young Saint Nick delivers all season. So you’ve got a pretty good market for that kind of player.”

Whether “young Saint Nick” (Castellanos) really “delivers all season” is debatable. He’s clearly a flawed player, one who has been more good than great at the plate throughout his career and has clearly struggled defensively in the outfield and at third base. Nevertheless, as a 27-year-old who does bring an above-average bat to the table, expectations are that he will fare well in free agency. MLBTR has him landing the eighth-highest guarantee of anyone on the market – a four-year, $58MM deal. 

Martinez is something of a souped-up version of Castellanos, but he’s a half-decade older (32) and perhaps even a less viable defender. No doubt, Martinez would have had difficulty outdoing the money left on his pact had he opted out. Boras addressed Martinez’s decision, saying (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe): “J.D. wanted assurance of competition at a high level and the fact that he played so well in Boston, we looked at it and with those two things in mind, we wanted to make sure that was the focus and for that reason he decided to opt in. The contract we structured allowed him choices after each season so it was something that, in this year at this time, we felt really that was the best decision.”

As Boras noted, Martinez will have another chance to opt out after next season. In the meantime, Boras is sure to focus his attention on several other clients who – despite his (arguably justifiable) distaste for the current system – could break the bank in the coming months.

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