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J.D. Martinez

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

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If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018.  The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark –  while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

J.D. Martinez’s Ex-Representative Suing Over Agency Switch

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In November 2017, at the start of what became a lucrative but drawn-out trip to free agency, slugger J.D. Martinez changed representation and hired famed agent Scott Boras. Now, 14-plus months after Martinez scored a five-year, $110MM guarantee from the Red Sox in February 2018, his former rep –  RMG Sports Group president Bob Garber – is crying foul on his ex-client’s switch. Garber is suing Merrill Lynch; Bruce Lee, one of Merrill Lynch’s Chicago-based financial advisers; and Pierce Fenner & Smith, “alleging tortious interference with contractual relations,” Scott Holland of the Cook County Record reports.

Garber had represented Martinez since 2010, the year after the Astros drafted him, but he claims in the lawsuit that Lee helped influence Martinez to hire Boras. According to Garber, he introduced Martinez to Lee, and the outfielder later hired Lee and Merrill Lynch “to provide wealth management services,” Holland writes. However, Garber alleged, “Upon learning of Boras’ impressive book of clients. Lee decided to grab an opportunity to get a foothold into the lucrative list of baseball clients represented by Scott Boars by using Martinez as his bait.”

Garber continued that in October 2017, shortly before Martinez defected to the Boras Corporation, the player engaged in phone discussions with Lee in which Lee “told Martinez to terminate his contractual relationship with RMG and Garber, telling Martinez, among other fabrications, that Bob is done, Bob is a hack and that Bob will sell him short.” As Holland writes, Garber added that Lee met with the Boras Corporation in November “to discuss referrals for his financial advising services,” indicating the two sides employed underhanded tactics that led to Boras stealing Martinez’s business from Garber.

This is somewhat of a similar situation to one in 2018 that saw Juan Carlos Nunez sue the ACES Agency, where he formerly worked as an independent contractor. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained at the time, Nunez alleged that “ACES founders Sam and Seth Levinson guided and funded him in a scheme to attract clients and connect them with performance-enhancing drugs.” Nunez sought “millions” in damages, but wrongdoing on the part of ACES was never proven.

Likewise, it may be difficult to show real evidence that Lee did anything to help sway Martinez to Boras. Regardless, though, Martinez’s switch to Boras had negative financial ramifications for Garber. Had Garber kept representing Martinez, RMG Sports Group would have continued to earn a 5 percent commission on his baseball-related income. Therefore, had Martinez inked the same $110MM contract with Garber on his side, RMG would have raked in $5.5MM.

It’s anyone’s guess whether Martinez would have landed the same deal had he kept Garber in place, of course. Even though Martinez entered the market as a superstar-caliber hitter, concerns over his defense and age (30 at the time) helped lead to a lack of suitors on the open market. He and the Red Sox wound up engaged in a months-long standoff, during which it seemed like only a matter of time before he’d head to Boston. That’s exactly what happened, and the Red Sox have since reaped the rewards in the form of elite production from Martinez and a World Series championship in his first season with the club.

Going forward, it’s possible the Boras-repped Martinez will collect another major payday in the coming years. His current pact includes a pair of opt-out chances, one after this season and another at the conclusion of the 2020 campaign. But if Martinez takes advantage of that opportunity during the upcoming offseason, he’d be leaving a guaranteed $62.5MM on the table.

Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions

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Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.

Extension Rumors: Cole, Verlander, Red Sox, Castellanos

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The Astros are currently discussing extensions with starters Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required), though a deal with either seems unlikely. Rosenthal notes that the Astros may not be keen on paying market price for a multi-year extension with Verlander when that deal would begin in his age-37 season. Cole, meanwhile, is a Scott Boras client and thus likelier to test the free-agent market. Boras’ most recent extension for a starting pitcher was Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, who (like Cole) was in his walk year when he signed a $175MM guarantee on a seven-year deal beginning in his age-28 season. Cole is in his age-28 season right now, so he’d be a year older than Strasburg at the time of a theoretical extension, but he’s also been more durable, reaching 200 innings in three of the past four seasons. Rosenthal makes a slightly less-aggressive comp than that, pointing out that Cole will reach free agency at the same age as Patrick Corbin and with better career stats. Corbin agreed to a six-year deal worth $140MM with the Nats this winter.

Since it’s officially “Extension Season” — as MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows, there have been a virtually unprecedented 16 extension agreements during Spring Training — here’s more extension chatter from around the game…

  • Rob Bradford of WEEI spoke to J.D. Martinez about the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox at the end of the season. Martinez, who can opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his current deal, said there haven’t been any discussions about an extension or a restructuring of the contract to this point. Unlike last summer, however, he at least left open a slight window for in-season talks in his most recent interview with Bradford. Martinez has an opt-out after the third year of his contract as well, at which point there’d be two years and $38.75MM remaining on the deal.
  • Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi was drafted five spot behind Alex Bregman and reached the Majors barely a week after the Astros’ third baseman, but Benintendi tells Bradford that his those similarities didn’t make him take particular note of Bregman’s $100MM extension. Rather, the 24-year-old Benintendi says it’s “fun to watch all these guys sign some deals” in a nod to the bevy of extensions throughout MLB. Benintendi and his reps have not discussed an extension with the Sox this winter, though he tells Bradford that he would “definitely” listen if the Sox initiated talks.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Heyman spoke to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski about the team’s current slate of extension candidates (all links to Twitter). While it’s common for players to place Opening Day deadlines on extension talks, Dombrowski somewhat unusually took a similar stance. “We’re focused on winning this year,” he said. “…Unless something unexpected happens, we’re not going to do anything once the season starts.” Heyman notes that Xander Bogaerts, specifically, has stated an aversion to in-season negotiating. Regarding Martinez, Dombrowski merely stated that the Sox are “hopeful” he won’t opt out of his contract.
  • The Tigers “haven’t engaged in any kind of [extension] conversations” with Nicholas Castellanos this spring, GM Al Avila told MLB.com’s Jason Beck yesterday. There’s been no formal offer or even any formal discussions on the matter with Castellanos’ agent, according to Avila, though he said the possibility of a deal is “obviously… in our minds.” Castellanos has expressed a desire to remain in Detroit on a long-term deal, though the rebuilding Tigers will undoubtedly view him as a possible trade asset this summer as well. If the two sides can eventually find a common ground in terms of price, however, Avila said he wouldn’t rule out an in-season extension. “He hasn’t said anything to the contrary,” Avila said of Castellanos being willing to negotiate beyond Opening Day. “I think he would be open to it.”

Quick Hits: JDM, Jose Martinez, Marwin, Padres

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Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez didn’t mince any words in his take on the slowed free agent market of the last two offseasons, describing the situation as “embarrassing for baseball” in comments to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.  “You have a business. They say, ’The market is down, the market is changing.’ The market is higher than it’s ever been,” Martinez said.  “People are making more money than ever, and they’re trying to suppress it. It’s more of a race towards the bottom now than a race towards the top. You can go right now through everyone’s lineup and you already know who’s going to be in the playoffs. What’s the fun in that? We might as well just fast-forward to the end of the season.”  Martinez had his own frustrating trip through free agency last winter, as it wasn’t until late February that he finally landed his current five-year, $110MM deal with the Sox.  For the next round of collective bargaining agreement negotiations, Martinez feels the MLBPA needs to be better prepared to counter what Martinez feels is a lack of competitiveness (“Losing is incentivized now.“) from the majority of teams.

In other labor news, representatives from the players’ union will meet with Rangers, White Sox, and Dodgers players on Sunday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports.  MLBPA reps regularly make separate trips to visit every team during Spring Training, though three teams gathering en masse for a meeting is unusual.  “It’s not hard to understand the symbolism: Players are prepared to show unity,” Grant writes.

Here’s more from around baseball…

  • Rival evaluators were “greatly surprised” that Marwin Gonzalez couldn’t find a three-year contract, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required), as the utilityman instead inked a two-year, $21MM deal with the Twins.  Agent Scott Boras initially targeted a four-year deal worth around $60MM for his client, and while Gonzalez’s versatility drew interest from many teams, none were willing to approach that price.  (MLBTR also predicted a four-year contract for Gonzalez, though only at $36MM.)  Olney wonders if utilitymen like Gonzalez are better served by signing earlier rather than later when testing free agency, and Olney also suggested that a reunion between Gonzalez and the Astros could have materialized if Houston had realized the player’s market would be so limited.  The Astros seemed to move on early from Gonzalez, acquiring Aledmys Diaz from the Blue Jays to serve in a utility role.
  • Jose Martinez’s two-year, $3.25MM extension was “something beyond a business decision” for the Cardinals, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  The unusual deal only covers this season (a pre-arbitration year for Martinez) and the slugger’s first year of arbitration of eligibility, so there technically wasn’t any urgency on the team’s part to get a deal done.  In fact, Martinez was the subject of trade rumors for much of the winter, both from MLB teams and in Japan.  Not wanting to either sell Martinez to the Japanese team or deprive the player of some added financial security, the extension served as a means to satisfy both Martinez and the Cardinals.  (Not to mention the clubhouse as a whole, as other Cardinals players were happy to hear that their popular teammate had a new contract.)  For Martinez, he cashes in his first big professional payday, which he said will go to help his family in Venezuela.
  • Manny Machado’s ten-year, $300MM contract cracked a new spending threshold for the Padres, though as the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Bryce Miller writes, such an acquisition opens up new revenues pathways to account for that expenditure.  Machado’s signing has already seen a $1MM boost in ticket sales, according to club chairman Ron Fowler, plus TV and radio ratings are expected to be on the rise.  Being featured on national ESPN/FOX games, as well, provides a wider marketing opportunity for the Padres, as well as just gaining more general exposure to the broader public.  Of course, the opportunity to create revenue is “all a product of winning,” Padres president of business operations Erik Greupner reminds.  “With a player like Manny, there’s immediately a buzz and return on the business side.  What’s more important for the long-term is what this translates to on the field.”

East Notes: Stroman, Phils, Moustakas, BoSox, JDM, Mets, Alonso

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Right-hander Marcus Stroman expressed frustration toward the Blue Jays on Sunday for not offering him a contract extension during the offseason. However, Stroman’s claim was refuted by an industry source, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. Whether or not the team did submit an offer(s), no deal has come to fruition, leaving Stroman in his penultimate year of club control. While Stroman generally thrived in Toronto from 2014-17, last season was a different story as the 27-year-old battled injuries and a downturn in production. This offseason may not have been the ideal for Stroman to ink an extension, then, though he insisted Sunday he “embodies the city of Toronto” more than anyone and wants to be there “for a long time.”

Here’s more on the game’s East divisions:

  • Philadelphia has been chasing free agent Manny Machado for months, but if the team doesn’t sign him, it appears it’ll go forward with Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery at third base. The Phillies “seem cool” on the possibility of signing Mike Moustakas or another non-Machado free agent to man the position, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. The club’s of the belief that Franco and Kingery are “two really good options,” according to general manager Matt Klentak. The 26-year-old Franco wasn’t much different offensively than Moustakas in 2018, though the latter trumped the former as a defender. Kingery had a disastrous rookie season at the plate, but the Phillies remain high on the 24-year-old, whom they signed to a long-term deal last March before he ever accrued a major league at-bat.
  • Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez is only a year removed from a protracted trip to free agency – one that culminated in late February with a five-year, $110MM guarantee. While the open market has frustrated many players over the past 16 months, Martinez may head back to free agency as early as next winter if he opts out of his contract after the season. The 31-year-old said Sunday that the cases of still-unemployed superstars Machado and Bryce Harper won’t play much of a role in his forthcoming decision, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. “At the end of the day, I know my value and I know what I bring to the table,” said Martinez – who, like Harper, is a Scott Boras client. “I really don’t look at that. I really judge me on me.” Regardless of whether Martinez does vacate his current contract next offseason, the offensive dynamo noted he’d “love” to continue his career in Boston, which he helped lead to a World Series title in 2018.
  • First baseman Peter Alonso, MLB.com’s 51st-ranked prospect, may be able to help the Mets as early as Opening Day, though whether he’ll make the team’s roster is in question. The Mets would gain an extra year of control over Alonso, 24, by keeping him in the minors until at least mid-April, after all. However, New York – led by general manager Brodie Van Wagenen – insists having seven years of control over Alonso instead of six won’t factor into whether he cracks its season-opening roster in 2019, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relays. “Our management’s going to fight for [Alonso],” said manager Mickey Callaway. “I think Brodie’s made it clear that he’s a players’ guy. And if he deserves it, he’s going to be on the team.” The main player standing in Alonso’s way appears to be Todd Frazier – the Mets’ projected starter at first – but the 33-year-old is coming off a poor year. Alonso, on the other hand, was highly productive in Double-A and Triple-A stints last season.

Red Sox Rumors: JDM, Bogaerts, Kikuchi, Payroll, Farm

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Both J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are likely to test free agency a year from now, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Martinez has an opt-out provision in his five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski gave no indication of interest in restructuring that deal, per Drellich. “He can choose to leave, it’s his opt out,” said Dombrowski. “But the reason we put ‘em in there were medically oriented as we went through at the time. That medical hasn’t changed.” Dombrowski is referring to medical provisions that were worked into the contract, allowing the Red Sox to convert the final two seasons of the deal into mutual options in the event that Martinez misses enough time due to a preexisting Lisfranc injury in his foot. As for Bogaerts, Dombrowski called his contract situation “important” for the team. Agent Scott Boras, meanwhile, told Drellich he’s “open to any thoughts [the Red Sox] have on the subject.” Asked about a recent extension for fellow client Jose Altuve, Boras pointed out that Bogaerts is two and a half years younger and also plays shortstop.

More from Boston…

  • Boston’s interest in Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams later this month, can be described as “lukewarm,” reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Dombrowski declined to comment on Kikuchi at the GM Meetings, beyond indicating that as one of Japan’s top arms, he’s a pitcher the Sox have scouted frequently in the past (as have many MLB clubs). “Yes, we have a pulse on him,” said Dombrowski. Boston could theoretically look to add some arms behind its top trio of Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello — especially considering Sale’s presence on next year’s free-agent market — but it doesn’t sound as though Kikuchi will be a prime target.
  • In a pair of columns for the Boston Globe, Alex Speier looks at Boston’s payroll/luxury tax situation as well as the team’s poorly regarded farm system. There’s virtually no scenario in which the Sox will avoid another season of luxury tax penalization, Speier observes, making the question not one of if they’ll incur penalty but rather one of how steep a penalty they’re willing to accept. Boston went into the highest luxury bracket this season and will be taxed at the maximum rate while also seeing its top draft pick dropped by 10 spots. Principal owner John Henry tells Speier, “You can’t do that all the time,” but Speier notes that it’s not clear if the organization is willing to do so once more in 2019. From a distance, it’s worth noting that this is the final season of club control over Sale, Martinez and Bogaerts, so there’s a good case to be made for maintaining aggression (though that’s just my own two cents). As for the farm system, Speier notes that a survey of rival evaluators left no real consensus as to the team’s top prospect — a fact that serves to highlight the general uncertainty that permeates the farm. But, the Sox surely have the pieces to once again be active on next summer’s rental market, Speier notes while highlighting a particular concentration of interesting third base prospects.

Red Sox Notes: Betts, JDM, Wright, Kimbrel

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The latest on the American League champions:

  • When the Red Sox go on the road to face the Dodgers in the World Series, they could feature an interesting defensive alignment. Speaking with reporters (including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald) on Saturday, Cora revealed that the Red Sox are considering deploying right fielder Mookie Betts at second base in Los Angeles, where they won’t have the luxury of using a designated hitter. In doing so, the Red Sox would keep DH/outfielder J.D. Martinez’s elite bat in the lineup. No matter what, Martinez is going to play, though the team’s not giving any thought to putting him at first base, Mastrodonato reports. Martinez has next to no experience at first, whereas Betts played plenty of second base as a prospect and most recently lined up at the keystone 14 times as a major league rookie in 2014.
  • Left knee issues have shelved Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright since Sept. 29, but the knuckleballer hasn’t ruled out a World Series return, per Mastrodonato. Although the Red Sox had to remove him from their ALDS roster when the playoffs began two weeks ago, Wright has been throwing since then, and he issued a fairly encouraging update Saturday. “My arm and body feels really good, just a matter of can my knee withstand the pressure of throwing off a mound consistently?” Wright said. He’ll “go through a few tests” before the Red Sox decide whether to include him on their World Series roster, according to Cora. Wright threw a short simulated game Sunday to help determine the status of his knee, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. The 34-year-old was an asset out of the Red Sox’s bullpen during the regular season, when he notched a 1.52 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .191/.303/.314 line.
  • It hasn’t been a banner postseason for all-world Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, who has allowed at least one earned run in four of five appearances. However, Kimbrel may have begun a turnaround in his most recent outing Thursday, when he threw a scoreless, hitless frame with two strikeouts and a walk to close out the Astros in the ALCS. Kimbrel revealed afterward that he had been tipping his pitches – something former closer Eric Gagne first noticed while watching from home, Ben Harris of The Athletic writes (subscription required). “There’s quite a few people, but actually Eric Gagne texted me last night,” Kimbrel said. “He’s good friends with AC (Alex Cora), and he texted me and gave me some advice.” As part of an interesting piece that’s worth checking out, Harris goes on to break down what Kimbrel was doing wrong and how he fixed it.

All-Star Notes: Red Sox, Lowrie, Markakis, Abreu

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While the focus this time of year is obviously on trade possibilities, the All-Star break also provides reporters an opportunity to ask players about their own long-term preferences. It’s not surprising, then, that we’ve seen a run of stories on players who won’t be traded away, but also aren’t under long-term control.

  • The Red Sox have certainly enjoyed an excellent opening run, led by excellent performances from a number of core players. It’d be a surprise to see any mid-season dealmaking, but the club might be expected to look into some new arrangements in the offseason to come. Closer Craig Kimbrel represents the most pressing situation, since he’ll be a free agent. As Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports, Kimbrel says he and his family would “love to stay” but certainly indicated he’ll wait to see what the market bears. Though he only arrived a few months ago, slugger J.D. Martinez says he’d be open to exploring a new pact that might eliminate some of his opt-out opportunities, as he tells Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Of course, there’s plenty of time left before he’s scheduled to have a shot at returning to the open market (post-2019), and there’s reason to wonder whether the organization really would want to pay up to enhance its control rights. In between those two players in terms of contract situation is staff ace Chris Sale. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe argues that, with one more option year left to go, the Boston organization ought to look into locking up the 29-year-old for the foreseeable future.
  • It seemed at one time that infielder Jed Lowrie would feature as a trade chip, but the surging Athletics obviously now have no plans to sell. Instead, attention has turned to the question whether he might end up returning to Oakland at season’s end. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, Lowrie says the front office has “expressed interest this time” around — unlike the prior time his contract with the A’s was nearing an end. Lowrie, a first-time All-Star in his 11th MLB season, indicated that he’d be open to working something out to return for a sixth campaign in Oakland, though it’s not clear whether any effort at mid-season talks will be made.
  • It’s a similar story for Braves outfielder Nick Markakis, another respected veteran who finally earned an All-Star nod. As Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, Markakis indicated he expects to keep playing after his contract runs out this fall — which is no surprise given his strong performance thus far. Whether that’ll take place in Atlanta or elsewhere, though, isn’t yet on his mind. “We’ll deal with that stuff in the offseason when the time comes,” says the veteran.
  • Those sorts of questions have long floated around White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, who stands out as a quality veteran on a very youthful roster. As Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times reports, Abreu says he hopes to have a chance to win before his time is up in Chicago. His focus is on “just trying to enjoy the moment with the team” at the moment, but the slugger also indicated that he’s at least open to spending more time on the South Side. “I’d like to stay with this team,” says Abreu. “And I’m going to do all in my power to make this team good as soon as possible.”

AL Notes: Beltre, Rays, Astros, K. Tucker, BoSox, JDM

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Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre is reportedly available, though it’s no sure thing the team will trade the future Hall of Famer, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram writes. Rather, the Rangers are interested in keeping Beltre, an impending free agent, in hopes of re-signing him prior to next season. In order to deal Beltre, the Rangers would need a return that outweighs the benefits of retaining the 39-year-old through the season and trying to re-sign him, Wilson hears. And should teams make offers for Beltre, general manager Jon Daniels will keep the player informed, Wilson reports. Given that Beltre has 10-and-5 rights and has enjoyed his time with the Rangers, Wilson notes that it’s not yet known whether he’d accept a deal to leave the team.

  • The Rays plan to part with a host of veterans in the coming weeks, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Catcher Wilson Ramos, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, outfielder Carlos Gomez and relievers Sergio Romo and Jonny Venters stand out as vets who are the most likely not to finish the season with the team, Topkins suggests. Similarly, righties Chris Archer and Nathan Eovaldi, infielder Matt Duffy and reliever Chaz Roe aren’t locks to end the year in Tampa Bay, Topkin adds.
  • There’s “a decent likelihood” the Astros will promote top outfield prospect Kyle Tucker later this season, president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow told Astros Radio on Sunday (Twitter link via Christian Boutwell of MLB.com). The 21-year-old Tucker, widely regarded as one of the game’s premier prospects, has held his own this season in his first taste of Triple-A action. Tucker has slashed .314/.382/.509 with 10 home runs, 13 stolen bases and solid walk (10.2) and strikeout (19.4) percentages over 324 trips to the plate.
  • Slugger J.D. Martinez is thriving with the Red Sox, who signed him to a five-year, $110MM deal over the winter. But Boston first “tried” to acquire Martinez last summer, president Dave Dombrowski revealed to Rob Bradford of WEEI. When Martinez was with the Tigers a year ago, the Red Sox, Indians and Diamondbacks were among the most aggressive teams in attempting to trade for him, according to Bradford. Martinez ended up with the D-backs – who landed him on July 18 – in part because the Tigers placed a higher asking price on him in talks with Boston than the other teams, Bradford hears.

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