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J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez Returns To Red Sox’ ALDS Roster; Matt Barnes Left Off

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The Red Sox announced their roster for their American League Division Series showdown against the Rays this morning, revealing that they’ll have slugger J.D. Martinez available to them for the best-of-five set. Martinez was omitted from Boston’s Wild Card roster after he tripped over second base and sprained his ankle in the final game of the regular season, but he’s apparently healthy enough to return to DH duties after a few days of downtime.

Of greater surprise, however, is that the Red Sox opted to leave right-hander Matt Barnes off the roster for this particular series. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension in July after a dominant three-month start to the season, wilted down the stretch and lost his grip on the team’s closer role.

It was a true tale of two seasons for the 31-year-old Barnes, who posted a 2.25 ERA and a massive 42 percent strikeout rate through his first 44 innings this season before collapsing with a 10.13 ERA in his final 10 2/3 innings (over a span of 16 appearances). Barnes saw his strikeout rate plummet to 26.7 percent as his 6.8 walk rate jumped to 15 percent in that time. After allowing only four homers through his first 44 innings, he yielded four more in those final 10 2/3 innings. Given that context, it’s understandable that Barnes would miss the cut, but such a scenario never would’ve seemed fathomable less than two months ago, when he put pen to paper on a two-year, $18.75MM extension.

Here’s how Boston’s roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Infielder/Outfielder

It’s also of note that Santana has been added to the roster. The switch-hitting speedster has been on the Covid-related injured list since Sept. 10, but the Red Sox opened a roster spot for him yesterday by outrighting shortstop Jose Iglesias (who wasn’t postseason-eligible because he signed mid-September). Santana will give the Sox some speed, a bit of pop and plenty of defensive versatility — but it wasn’t a productive 2021 season for him overall. In 127 plate appearances, Santana batted just .181/.252/.345 with five homers and four stolen bases.

Also dropped from the roster for this round were center fielder Jarren Duran, catcher Connor Wong and infielder Jonathan Arauz. Those subtractions help to pave the way for the addition of Chris Sale and Martin Perez, who weren’t on the Wild Card roster. Sale pitched in the season finale and wouldn’t have been an option in the Wild Card game, but he’ll be expected to start during the Division Series. That said, it’ll be Eduardo Rodriguez getting the ball for Game 1 against the Rays and lefty Shane McClanahan.

Red Sox Outright Jose Iglesias, Yairo Munoz

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The Red Sox have outrighted infielders Jose Iglesias and Yairo Munoz, according to a team announcement. This now leaves their 40-man roster at 39, giving them the opportunity to potentially make an addition before tomorrow’s ALDS kick-off. (Munoz had been on the COVID-19 related injured list since September 1st and thus wasn’t taking up a roster spot.)

Subtracting Iglesias from the roster isn’t terribly surprising, since he is unable to play for the club again this season anyhow on account of being signed after the August 31st deadline. Players joining an organization after that date are ineligible for postseason play with their new club. Iglesias was released by the Angels September 3rd and signed with the Red Sox September 6th. He is also heading into free agency after the postseason, making it a formality to cut him loose a bit early.

The club could now potentially add a player from their minor league system to the 40-man roster for postseason eligibility. Players in the organization but not on the 40-man roster before September 1 can still participate in the playoffs via a petition to the Commissioner’s Office, a fairly common maneuver throughout the league.

Another roster question hanging over the club is whether or not J.D. Martinez will be on it. The slugger hurt his ankle recently and was left off the roster for the Wild Card game. As noted by Jon Morosi of MLB Network, Martinez took the field today and “tested his ankle at low intensity.” When Martinez was asked if he would play tomorrow, he gave the noncommittal answer, “You’ll find out.” Of course, any player that the Red Sox could potentially call up would pale in comparison to a healthy Martinez, who had yet another excellent season at the plate, hitting .286/.349/.518, for a wRC+ of 128.

J.D. Martinez Not On Red Sox’ Wild Card Roster

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The Red Sox have announced their roster for tonight’s Wild Card showdown with their archrival New York Yankees. Perhaps most notably, slugging outfielder J.D. Martinez has been left off it after injuring his ankle in one of the more unusual on-field injuries you’re likely to see.  Nathan Eovaldi will start on the hill for the Sox. Here’s how the roster breaks down:

Right-handed-pitchers

Left-handed-pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Infielder/Outfielder

Having to play a win-or-go-home playoff contest against the Yanks without Martinez is, to say the least, less than ideal for the Sox.  Moreover, the way in which Martinez injured himself surely falls under the category of “The Baseball Gods Must Hate Us.”  Jogging out to right field in the middle of the fifth inning in Sunday’s must-win contest against the Nationals, Martinez tripped over second base, spraining his left ankle.  Clearly one of the Beantowners’ three best hitters, Martinez put up a 128 wRC+, bettered only by Rafael Devers (134) and Xander Bogaerts (130).  Unfortunately for Red Sox Nation, he’ll be no more than a cheerleader tonight.

On the bright side, the Sox are starting Eovaldi, who has been the club’s best and most reliable pitcher in 2021.  Eovaldi took a huge step forward this year, which by many measures has been the best of his career.  Among starters with at least 140 innings pitched, Eovaldi led the American League in fWAR (5.6) and FIP (2.79) while finishing a close second to John Means in walk rate (4.6%).  He was able to keep the ball in the yard better than he has since 2015, with a HR/9 of just 0.74, no small feat while calling cozy Fenway Park your home.

Also of note, the Sox left Chris Sale off the roster, at least for tonight’s game.  That’s not surprising, given that he started Sunday and is coming back from Tommy John surgery he underwent in March of last year.  While Sale has been effective since returning to action on August 14, posting a 3.69 FIP, he’s also averaged just over 4.2 IP over his nine starts, and he certainly wasn’t going to pitch tonight. If Boston dispenses with the Bombers, they’ll be able to add Sale and (if healthy) Martinez to the roster for the ALDS.

J.D. Martinez Leaves Game With Left Ankle Sprain

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J.D. Martinez left today’s game after suffering what the Red Sox termed as a left ankle sprain.  The injury was suffered in bizarre fashion, as Martinez stumbled over second base while making his way out to right field to begin the bottom of the fifth inning.  Martinez played the half-inning, but was then replaced by pinch-hitter Jose Iglesias in the top of the sixth.

While normally a DH in the Red Sox lineup, Martinez has continued to see his share of time in the field, with today marking his 36th game of the season as an outfielder.  The Sox had no choice but to deploy Martinez in right field considering today’s game is in Washington, and thus the DH spot wasn’t available under National League rules.

The severity of Martinez’s injury remains to be seen, but should the slugger be limited in any way during at least the next few days, it certainly won’t help Boston’s chances of reaching the postseason, pending today’s results (or the results of a potential Game 163 playoff to determine an AL wild card berth).  After a rough 2020 season, Martinez has bounced back with a solid performance this year, hitting .286/.349/.518 with 28 homers and a league-best 42 doubles over 632 plate appearances.

J.D. Martinez “Right In The Middle” About Opt-Out Decision

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J.D. Martinez’s top priority is on getting the Red Sox into the playoffs, though once this season’s business is complete, Martinez will have to decide whether or not to return to the Sox for 2022.  The slugger tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he is “right in the middle” about whether he will opt out of the final season (and $19.375MM) on his contract, or if he’ll come back for a fifth year in Boston.

Martinez’s original five-year/$110MM pact from the 2017-18 offseason was somewhat unusually structured, giving both Martinez and the team multiple opportunities to opt out of the deal, with Boston’s concern being Martinez’s history of foot injuries.  As it turned out, Martinez stayed relatively healthy, and delivered huge numbers in 2018-19 before tailing off badly in 2020.  However, Martinez spoke at length about how the COVID-altered circumstances of the 2020 season impacted his ability to prepare and adjust for games, and his bat has largely bounced back in the somewhat more normalized environment of the 2021 campaign.

It’s a sign of how well Martinez has performed during his career that his .285/.349/.516 slash line and 29 homers over 612 plate appearances this season actually represents a step down from his 2014-19 prime, though Martinez is certainly still a dangerous bat.  A below-average walk rate is the only real sign of decline for the 34-year-old, who is still making plenty of hard contact and hitting for plenty of power.

Martinez has already passed on opting out of his contract following each of the last two seasons.  While last year’s decision was hardly a surprise given his subpar numbers, Martinez also expressed concern over how the free agent market would look for himself and for players as a whole in the wake of the pandemic season.  Given how vocal Martinez was about his displeasure with his own past free agent experience, he might be more inclined to take the security of his 2022 salary and avoid the possibility of another unusual offseason, considering the rumblings of labor struggles between owners and players.

That said, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement could also represent an argument for Martinez to opt out.  It has been widely assumed that the next CBA will extend the designated hitter to the National League, thus opening Martinez’s market up to 15 other teams.  While Martinez isn’t a DH-only player, an NL team would surely prefer to have the DH available if signing Martinez to a multi-year contract.  Of course, Martinez will have to make his opt-out call within five days of the end of the World Series — well before we’ll know if the universal DH will be a reality.

Looking at just the American League, teams like the Mariners, Tigers (Martinez’s former team), Indians, and perhaps even the White Sox, Blue Jays, or Royals could all make room for the veteran slugger in their 2022 lineups.  A return to Boston also couldn’t be ruled out beyond just declining the opt-out clause, as Martinez and the Red Sox could potentially work out an extension or another year or two to keep Martinez from opting out.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Chris Sale To Be Activated On Saturday

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Chris Sale will be activated and start for the Red Sox this Saturday, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. This will mark the end of a long absence for Sale, who has been out of action for two whole years now.

In August of 2019, Sale began having elbow problems that forced him to miss the remainder of the season. Although Tommy John surgery was not recommended at the time, it would be eventually, and Sale underwent the procedure in March of 2020.

If he can quickly return to his previous form, or anything close to it, it will be a huge upgrade for a Red Sox team that has recently slid in the standings, surrendering the top spot in the AL East to the Rays. The lefty has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past decade. Since his 2010 debut, he has thrown 1629 2/3 innings, with a 3.03 ERA and excellent strikeout and walk rates of 30.7% and 5.7%.

In other Red Sox news, Alex Verdugo has gone on the paternity list and will be away from the team for a few days, per Bill Koch of the Providence Journal. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo adds that Connor Wong has been optioned, while Jarren Duran and JD Martinez have been activated from the COVID-IL. Both Duran and Martinez went on the IL in recent days because they weren’t feeling well. COVID testing must have come back negative, because a positive test would have resulted in a 10-day quarantine. Wong was only just recalled to help cover for their absence but didn’t get into any game action.

East Notes: Red Sox, Martinez, Houck, Rays, McHugh, Phillies, Anderson

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The Red Sox have placed designated hitter J.D. Martinez on the COVID-related injured list today after he wasn’t feeling well, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). Martinez joins centerfielder Jarren Duran as players recently placed on the COVID-related IL. Test results have not returned for either Martinez or Duran, notes The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. Connor Wong has been added to the active roster in Martinez’s place.

  • Tanner Houck was also added to the roster to make a start in today’s doubleheader, notes Abraham. He will be their 27th man. Houck has a 2.45 ERA in 22 innings, which includes four starts and a pair of appearances out of the pen — his last start coming on July 28th. His Triple-A numbers haven’t been quite as good, but no matter where he’s pitched, he’s been striking out batters, owning a combined 31.3 percent strikeout rate on the year.
  • Elsewhere in the American League East, the Rays reinstated Collin McHugh from the injured list, optioning Louis Head to Triple-A, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Head has been tremendous when active, tossing 20 innings with a 1.35 ERA/2.71 FIP. McHugh is no slouch himself, however, with a 1.51 ERA/1.36 FIP across 41 2/3 innings. Both right-handers have been able to fill a role as a multi-inning reliever for manager Kevin Cash.
  • In the National League, the Phillies placed Chase Anderson on the 10-day injured list with right triceps tendinitis, recalling Nick Maton from Triple-A, per the team. With a 6.75 ERA/5.85 FIP on the year, one would think that Anderson’s rotation spot would be up for grabs if his absence.The first-place Phillies won’t need to fill his rotation spot until next Saturday, notes The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (via Twitter).

AL Notes: Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, Astros

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John Means left his start today in the first inning with what’s currently being identified as “left shoulder fatigue,” per Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com. Said Means after the game, “This is something I’ve been battling the last few weeks. Not really during the games, but after games. I felt it more so in warmups when I was out there, the last couple of pitches when I really started to let it eat.” The O’s lefty will undergo an MRI on Sunday morning. Elsewhere in the American League…

  • The Twins have not gotten the kind of production they need from Matt Shoemaker this season. The 34-year-old veteran gave up eight earned runs while recording just one out against the Royals on Friday. For the season, Shoemaker’s 7.28 ERA/5.98 FIP rank last by a fair margin among starters with at least 50 innings this season. He will continue to make his turns in the Twins’ rotation for now, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes.
  • Even if the Twins wanted to make a move, they’re somewhat hampered by recent injuries in their minor leagues. Minor league hurlers Lewis Thorpe and Matt Canterino were placed on the injured list today, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (via Twitter). They are dealing with a left shoulder strain and right elbow strain, respectively. Canterino, pitching in High-A, was not likely to help out at the big league level this season, but Thorpe already has 14 innings in four appearances (three starts) with the Twins this season. He has pitched exclusively out of the pen at Triple-A.
  • J.D. Martinez was a late scratch from the Red Sox’ lineup with a sore wrist, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). He appeared to jam his wrist sliding into second base during play on Friday. The injury does not appear to be serious. Per Christopher Smith of Masslive.com, manager Alex Cora commented on the situation, saying, “…we’ll take care of him today, get treatment. If he feels good and we need him late in game, then probably we’ll use him.”
  • Aledmys Diaz will undergo X-Rays after being hit by a pitch and suffering a left hand contusion, per Mark Berman of Fox 26 (via Twitter). Diaz would be missed. He’s posted a solid .281/.339/.439 line in 124 plate appearances this season.

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

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