J.D. Martinez

Regular season baseball is just over the horizon but many free agents remain unsigned. Two of the most notable of those free agents are left-hander Blake Snell and designated hitter J.D. Martinez, both of whom are represented by the Boras Corporation. The Halos were connected to both of those players back in December and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Halos are still talking about both of them. In a separate column, Heyman adds that the Mets also remain involved with Martinez, to whom they were connected last month.

It’s unclear if the Angels are making a serious push for a late signing or merely keeping tabs as the players linger on the open market into the middle of March, but they are one of the few clubs that make for a logical fit for a notable deal at this point. Many teams around the league have exhausted their respective budgets by this stage of the calendar, with some of them having concerns around luxury tax payments or uncertainty around TV revenue streams.

But the Angels are below their previous levels of spending, both in terms of pure payroll expenditures and competitive balance tax calculations. RosterResource currently lists their payroll at $174MM and their CBT number at $189MM for 2024. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Halos had an Opening Day payroll of $212MM last year, $38MM above where they are now. The base threshold of the CBT is $237MM this year, which gives the club $48MM of space if they want to stay below the tax, which is a line they hovered around last year.

Owner Arte Moreno has previously stated that the club is planning on operating with a lower payroll this year, but without specifics about exactly where they want to end up. Given the gaps between last year’s spending and this year’s, it’s possible to envision another signing coming together while still fulfilling his plan of reduced overall expenditures.

Many observers wondered if the club would look to mount a rebuild in the post-Shohei Ohtani era, but general manager Perry Minasian firmly stated at the start of the offseason that the club would not be doing that and was actually planning an aggressive offseason.

Thus far, the club has directed most of its efforts to the bullpen, signing Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García, Adam Cimber and José Cisnero. On the position player side, their most notable addition was signing Aaron Hicks, who they will only have to pay the league minimum since the Yankees are still on the hook for his contract. Their most significant rotation addition was a $1MM signing of Zach Plesac, who has already been optioned to the minors.

Adding Martinez would be a clear upgrade to the club’s lineup, as he has a long track record of effective hitting and is coming off a 33-home run campaign with the Dodgers. The roster fit is a little awkward since Martinez is primarily a DH at this point, having only played 12 innings in the field over the last two years combined. The Angels technically have an open DH spot with Ohtani’s departure but may want to use that for their various aging or injury-prone players. Both Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout are the club’s two highest-paid players and each has missed significant time in the past few years as they have pushed into their 30s. Giving them occasional DH time and keeping them fresh might be preferable to locking up the DH spot with Martinez. Similar logic could apply to other players in their 30s like Brandon Drury or Hicks.

Previous reporting has suggested that Martinez turned down an offer of $14MM from the Giants while looking for either a two-year deal, a salary near $20MM or both. The Angels could accommodate that without reaching last year’s spending levels, though they would have to weigh the benefits of adding his bat to the lineup against the reduced ability to rest their other players, as well as the financial cost.

Snell would certainly cost more but it’s much easier to imagine him fitting onto the roster. The Halos have a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth. Everyone in that group can still be optioned apart from Anderson, while Silseth has just 81 major league innings under his belt. At this late stage in the offseason, Snell would likely have to miss the opening of the schedule anyway and injuries may have popped up by the time he’s fully stretched out. Even if he can’t be expected to repeat last year’s Cy Young-winning season that finished with a 2.25 ERA, he’s one of the best pitchers in the league and would upgrade any rotation.

The lefty reportedly turned down an offer of $150MM over six years from the Yankees, average annual value of $25MM, with Snell looking for either a salary in the $30MM range or a longer pact. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Anderson’s three-year, $39MM is the largest the Angels have given to a starting pitcher since 2012, both in terms of years and guaranteed dollars.

Despite that apparent distaste to giving lengthy free agent pacts to pitchers, it’s possible to imagine the two sides coming together. Snell is reportedly open to a shorter pact with higher AAVs and opt-outs, similar to those signed by fellow Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. That type of deal is difficult for a club that has already spent a huge chunk of its budget or has tax bills to think about. The Yankees, for instance, would have to pay $33MM in taxes in order to give Snell a contract with a $30MM AAV this year. As mentioned above, the Halos have plenty of spending capacity before they even reach last year’s payroll or come close to the CBT line. Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres so signing him would also cost the Angels their second-highest pick in this summer’s draft as well as $500K of their international bonus pool.

Until a deal comes together, the rotation will project to be that fivesome of Detmers, Sandoval, Anderson, Canning and Silseth. The club has been stretching out some other guys, such as Andrew Wantz and José Soriano, but they are apparently behind the front five. Manager Ron Washington tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that Wantz and Soriano will stay stretched out for now but won’t earn a rotation spot unless there’s an injury to one of the other five guys.

As for the Mets, they have been connected to Martinez previously, but with the caveat that they were leaning towards giving at-bats to younger players like Brett Baty or Mark Vientos. Those two could split the third base job and the DH slot, with Joey Wendle perhaps filling in at third on defense from time to time while DJ Stewart could perhaps take some plate appearances as the DH.

Both of Baty and Vientos are optionable and could therefore be sent to the minors, but it makes sense that the Mets would want to give them some run at the big league level. Vientos has hit just .205/.255 /.354 in the majors but has slashed .290/.369/.554 at Triple-A over the last two years. Similarly, Baty has hit .210/.272/.325 in the big leagues but .311/.405/.554 in the minors over the past two years.

Since neither of them have much left to prove on the farm and the Mets are planning a sort of bridge year in 2024, there’s logic to letting them face big league pitchers to see if either takes a step forward. Signing Martinez would also come with a hefty financial cost, as the Mets are set to be third-time payors of the CBT and are above the fourth tier of penalization. That means they face a 110% tax on any money they add to their books. Giving Martinez $15MM for this year, just as an example, would also involve paying $16.5MM in taxes and a total expense of $31.5MM.

If the club is willing to consider such an expenditure, it would lengthen the lineup as they walk a tightrope in 2024. They mostly limited themselves to one-year deals this offseason as they look to field a competitive team but without sacrificing too much of their future flexibility. Signing Martinez could lengthen their lineup here in 2024 but would also come with the opportunity cost of having less playing time for guys like Baty and Vientos, as well as the aforementioned financial elements.

In addition to the Angels, Snell has continued to garner interest from other clubs, with the Giants connected to him earlier this month. The Yankees may revisit their talks with Snell if they get bad news regarding Gerrit Cole’s MRI, though recent reporting has suggested they may be more likely to trade for Dylan Cease due to his lower salary and tax hit. Martinez was recently connected to the Marlins, in addition to the talks with the Mets and Angels.