Royals Rumors

Checking In On The Worst Bullpens Of 2018

By Connor Byrne | February 3, 2019 at 12:46pm CDT

The importance of having a dominant bullpen was on display in 2018, when four of the majors’ five best relief units in terms of fWAR helped pitch their teams to the postseason. On the other hand, four of the league’s five worst relief corps (and nine of the game’s bottom 10) watched the playoffs from home. So now, with the spring fast approaching, where do last year’s bottom-feeding bullpens stand? As you’ll see below, at least one has made major improvements this winter, but the rest look iffier. While there’s still time for these teams to add help from a free-agent class that remains awash with veterans, this quintet’s bullpen-related heavy lifting may be all but complete for the offseason.

Royals (minus-2.2 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource ): Going by fWAR, the Royals’ 2018 bullpen was among the five worst of the past decade, though the unit “only” posted the majors’ second-highest ERA (5.09) a year ago. Those hideous numbers came in spite of the presence of Kelvin Herrera, who logged a near-spotless 1.05 ERA over 25 2/3 innings before the Royals traded the then-pending free agent to the Nationals in June. They also came thanks in large part to Brandon Maurer, who’s now a Pirate after pitching to a ghastly 7.76 ERA/6.58 FIP in 31 1/3 innings out of Kansas City’s bullpen last season.

Heading into the upcoming campaign, there’s a lot of work to be done to turn this Herrera-less group into a strength, but the Royals haven’t addressed it in any major way this offseason. However, considering they’re coming off a 58-win season and also won’t approach contention in 2019, it’s not surprising the Royals have shied away from major league free agency. They’ve instead taken less expensive routes to acquire potential bullpen pieces, having pulled in Michael Ynoa on a minor league deal, Sam McWilliams and Chris Ellis in the Rule 5 Draft and Conner Greene via waivers. Unfortunately, going by ZIPS projections, no one from that quartet looks like a promising bet to produce much in 2019. Likewise, ZIPS doesn’t have particularly high hopes for the majority of the Royals’ bullpen holdovers from 2018. The system does, however, like 23-year-old left-hander Richard Lovelady – who has turned in excellent minor league numbers but hasn’t yet reached the majors.

Marlins (minus-2.1 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): At 5.34, the Marlins’ relief corps managed the game’s worst ERA last year and the sport’s third-highest mark since 2009. The main culprits were Ben Meyer, Junichi Tazawa and Tyler Cloyd, who combined for 56 2/3 innings and each registered an ERA of at least 8.68. Tazawa and Cloyd are now out of the organization. Meyer, meanwhile, is still around, but he’s not even on Miami’s 40-man roster. But neither is righty Nick Wittgren, who led Marlins relievers in ERA (2.94) and FIP (3.13) in 33 2/3 frames last year. The Marlins made the odd choice to designate the 27-year-old Wittgren for assignment earlier this week to make room for the signing of infielder Neil Walker, who’s six years Wittgren’s senior and only under control for one season. Other notable contributors no longer in the mix include Kyle Barraclough (who nosedived in 2018 and was dealt to the Nationals in October), Brad Ziegler (Miami traded him to Arizona last July, and he has since retired) and Javy Guerra (now a Blue Jay after putting up a 5.55 ERA in 2018).

The best returning pieces in Miami’s bullpen look to be Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley, who each registered solid seasons in 2018. Otherwise, it’s a largely unproven cast – one that hasn’t picked up any major league free agents and seems likely to once again record below-average numbers this year. As with the Royals, the Marlins are rebuilding, so they’ve explored alternative paths for help. Thus far, they’ve acquired Nick Anderson (via trade with the Twins), Tyler Stevens (via trade with the Angels), minor league free agents R.J. Alvarez and Brian Moran, Rule 5 selection Riley Ferrell, and intriguing waiver claim Julian Fernandez.

Mets (minus-0.6 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Unlike the Royals and Marlins, the Mets are making a real effort to win in 2019. As a result, the bullpen has been a key area of focus for new Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who has swung a blockbuster trade to reel in arguably the best closer in baseball (ex-Mariner Edwin Diaz) and spent a combined $40MM on free agents Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson this winter. Diaz, Familia and Wilson will join Seth Lugo, who was outstanding in 2018, and Robert Gsellman to give the Mets no fewer than five capable relievers.

Perhaps the Mets will also benefit from less heralded pickups in Luis Avilan and Arquimedes Caminero, whom they signed to minors deals, and Rule 5 pick Kyle Dowdy. Regardless, New York’s new cast of relievers looks a whole lot better than last year’s bullpen, which relied too much on the likes of Paul Sewald, Jerry Blevins, Jacob Rhame, Tim Peterson and Anthony Swarzak, among other ineffective options, en route to a 4.96 ERA. Sewald, Rhame and Peterson are still in the organization, albeit as depth pieces, while Blevins and Swarzak are now gone. All things considered, ZIPS expects the Mets’ revamped bullpen to end up as one of the majors’ best in 2019.

Indians (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Cleveland found its way to another division title in 2018 despite its weak bullpen, which limped to a 4.60 ERA as innings leaders Cody Allen, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister, Neil Ramirez and Andrew Miller scuffled. Allen, McAllister and Miller are now gone, leaving the Indians with a bullpen that, in spite of the great Brad Hand’s presence, still looks somewhat questionable. The club did well to re-up lefty Oliver Perez, whose 2018 renaissance earned him a guaranteed deal last month, though he’s the only major league free agent Cleveland has signed. The team also made a waiver claim for A.J. Cole, whose penchant for surrendering home runs led both the Nationals and Yankees to give up on him in the past eight months, and brought in veterans Justin Grimm and Brooks Pounders on minor league accords. Big league success has eluded Grimm and Pounders over the past couple years, however, so the Indians surely aren’t expecting significant contributions from either. Instead, their relief corps will count on returning Indians – potentially including flamethrower Danny Salazar, a starter from 2013-17 who missed all of last season because of shoulder problems. While Salazar could factor in at some point, it won’t be at the start of the season.

Nationals (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Washington, another prospective contender, has made a couple of interesting bullpen moves this offseason after last year’s underwhelming showing. In addition to trading for the hard-throwing Barraclough, who held his own from 2015-17, they inked fellow high-velocity righty Trevor Rosenthal to a $7MM guarantee in free agency. Rosenthal, 28, sat out all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the former Cardinals closer was mostly tremendous out of their bullpen from 2012-17.

Should a healthy Rosenthal return to form, it would be an enormous boon for the Nationals, who saw a different ex-Cards reliever – Greg Holland – experience a rebirth in their uniform last season. But after logging a microscopic 0.84 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in D.C., Holland joined the Diamondbacks in free agency. The Holland-less Nats are now slated to rely mostly on elite but oft-injured closer Sean Doolittle, Barraclough, Rosenthal, Justin Miller, Koda Glover, Sammy Solis and Matt Grace, with Tanner Rainey (acquired from the Reds for Tanner Roark) and minor league signings Vidal Nuno and J.J. Hoover around as depth. All said, it’s a high-risk, high-reward bunch, given the injuries Doolittle and Rosenthal have dealt with and the up-and-down performances of Barraclough, Miller, Glover, Solis and Grace.

Dillon Gee Announces Retirement

By Steve Adams | January 28, 2019 at 9:44pm CDT

Right-hander Dillon Gee took to Instagram on Monday evening to announce that after a professional career that spanned more than a decade and included parts of eight MLB seasons and a season in Japan, he is retiring from the game.

Gee, who’ll turn 33 in April, spent the 2018 season with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but, prior to that, appeared in eight consecutive MLB seasons with the Mets, Royals, Rangers and Twins.

Gee’s most prominent role came with the Mets, his original organization, from the 2011-14 seasons, during which he was largely a fixture in the team’s rotation. Gee appeared in 101 games, 98 of them starts, across that four-year stretch and gave the Mets a fairly steady stream of reliable innings. While he was oft overshadowed by a series of vaunted arms who were emerging on the scene around that same time (e.g. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler), Gee turned in 606 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball in that four-year period.

Unfortunately, as is the case with so many pitchers, injuries took their toll on Gee following that run. Gee dealt with a blood clot that required surgery in 2012 and perhaps even more detrimentally underwent the dreaded thoracic outlet surgery following the 2016 season. He’d go on to return with better results than many TOS patients, pitching to a 3.47 ERA through 49 1/3 innings between the Rangers and Twins in 2017, though that also proved to be his last MLB action.

In all, Gee will retire with a career 51-48 record, a 4.09 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 over the life of 853 2/3 Major League innings. Though he’ll retire at a relatively young age, Gee still did quite well for himself in baseball, taking home north of $13MM in player salaries — a sum that most 21st-round selections can scarcely fathom.

Royals Extend Whit Merrifield

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | January 28, 2019 at 2:59pm CDT

The Royals have announced a four-year deal with second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported. The contract will guarantee him $16.25MM, Morosi tweets, and includes a club option for a fifth year

Merrifield earns salaries of $1MM, $5MM, $6.75MM, and $2.75MM, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan has the breakdown (Twitter links). While that may seem like an odd order at first glance, the front-loaded structure benefits the player by moving up his earnings (notably, in this case, in advance of the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement). The contract also comes with a $750K buyout on the club option, which can be exercised at $10.5MM. Rather than incentive pay, the deal includes $2MM in possible escalators in its final two guaranteed seasons, based upon plate appearances and awards.

Since Merrifield was already under control through 2022, his new deal will cover his final pre-arbitration season and his three arb-eligible years. Merrifield, a client of The L. Warner Companies, will also give up the rights to one prospective free-agent season via option. Of course, that’ll come after he has already reached his 34th birthday — a critical factor in understanding this agreement.

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

MLBTR profiled Merrifield as an extension candidate last March, explaining that he was a non-traditional, but nevertheless intriguing, potential target for a deal. The concept was rather simple, and remains largely the same now, though he has one more year of service and has further boosted his on-field value in the interim. For Merrifield, a deal offers a chance to ensure he locks in significant career earnings, cutting off the risks associated with his relatively advanced age — a factor that also significantly limits his future free agent upside. For the team, it’s an opportunity to achieve cost certainty and some savings for the arbitration seasons while also picking up control over an additional season of the two-time All-Star’s services.

In terms of the financial figures involved, there’s not a ton of cash at stake. For a player who remains a league-minimum earner even after hitting his 30th birthday, though, it’s a big chunk of change. Merrifield might have anticipated topping $16.25MM in his three seasons of arb to come, but not by a massive amount. Even reaching that level of pay would assume he’s at full health and continues at least to be worthy of regular playing time. Looking at a few recent second base comps, DJ LeMahieu earned exactly at that level ($16.3MM) over his three arb years. It’s certainly possible that Merrifield could have topped that with more campaigns like his 2018 effort. On the other hand, despite a higher first-year starting salary than LeMahieu, Joe Panik is now on track to earn a good bit less (he’s at $7.25MM through two seasons) after experiencing a setback season.

From the Royals’ perspective, the risk is limited and there are some clear benefits to this new pact. The broader state of the franchise is also an important consideration, though. Although the club is coming off of a 58-win season and figures to miss the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, it has consistently turned away trade interest in Merrifield. General manager Dayton Moore declared prior to last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline that the Royals “need [Merrifield] in our city and on our team.” Thus, the late-blooming standout’s extension will serve as the organization’s latest vote of confidence not only in Merrifield, but in its broader slate of MLB and near-MLB talent.

Cashing in on the affordable club control over Merrifield through a trade surely had its appeal as well. Indications are that such an approach was at least explored at the 2018 trade deadline and perhaps in the offseason as well, though Moore made clear more recently to rival orgs that Merrifield was staying put. Of course, the pact may not preclude the Royals from trading him in the relatively near future. The Padres, for instance, awarded reliever Brad Hand a team-friendly extension last January and then traded him to the Indians in July for an offer they simply couldn’t pass up. Such a quick flip seems less likely in this case, considering the Royals’ faith in Merrifield and the team’s desire to avoid a full-blown rebuild. Generally, though, the contract shouldn’t hurt Merrifield’s marketability, even if it doesn’t vastly increase the value of his control rights.

So, what are the Royals getting for their money? A ninth-round pick of the K.C. org back in 2010, the 30-year-old Merrifield has likely emerged as the Royals’ premier player in the club’s post-Lorenzo Cain/Eric Hosmer/Mike Moustakas era. Merrifield debuted with a respectable showing in 2016, albeit over just half a season (81 games, 332 plate appearances), before truly breaking out the next year. Since 2017, the righty-hitting Merrifield has accrued 8.1 fWAR (including 5.2 in 2018, tying him for 15th among position players) and slashed .296/.347/.449 with 31 home runs and 79 stolen bases in 1,337 PAs.

Merrifield didn’t offer much power in 2018 (12 home runs, .134 ISO), but he still logged a terrific 120 wRC+ on the strength of a league-leading 192 hits, a .304 batting average and a .367 on-base percentage. When Merrifield did reach base, he terrorized opposing clubs, evidenced in part by his league-high 45 steals on 55 attempts. He was also eminently durable, appearing in 158 games, and effective in the field. Merrifield earned plus defensive marks in 900-plus innings at the keystone and upward of 300 frames in the outfield, including 241 in center.

The broad profile is of a versatile, multi-functional player who’d clearly be of interest to every single team in baseball. That’s a remarkable state of affairs given where Merrifield’s career stood entering the 2016 season, which he opened at the Triple-A level for a third-straight time, on the heels of a mediocre .265/.317/.364 showing for Omaha in the prior campaign. The intervening development is a credit both to the Royals and Merrifield, so it’s only appropriate that team and player each seem to have a path to benefit from this new contract — modest though it may be in its overall impact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Making Sense Of The Whit Merrifield Extension

By Jeff Todd | January 28, 2019 at 12:58pm CDT

It’s difficult sometimes to make sense of the extensions we hear about. Why is it that player A is earning so much more or less than player B? Sometimes it’s obvious; sometimes it’s not. In some cases, there are relatively unique, personal circumstances that help explain it — some of which may not even really become known publicly. In every case, the actual course of negotiations requires both sides to estimate market value at a point at which there are necessarily still key factors that are unknown. There’s plenty of variability based upon varying motivations of the particular team and player involved. Still, we like to think that market value underpins baseball contracts. Every deal is susceptible of examination from a value perspective.

Given all of that, it seems worth taking a closer look at the recently reported deal between the Royals and second baseman/center fielder Whit Merrifield. Despite two-straight All-Star seasons and an upward trajectory in his performance, he’s promised just $16.25MM over four years — less than the qualifying offer rate ($17.9MM) for a single season. He can boost that by a bit via escalators, but will also give away an option year at a $10.5MM salary. Even in the extension context, it seems like a bargain for a high-quality player who has immense versatility and a well-rounded skillset. So, how to make sense of this?

It all starts with his experience and age. Merrifield is still shy of three years of MLB service yet just recently hit his 30th birthday. Since he didn’t have enough service time to reach arbitration early as a Super Two qualifier, he was still a full season away from commanding more than the league minimum salary, with the inherent risks and limitations of the arb process to look forward to thereafter. Moreover, the recent trends in the aging curve have not been kind to elder statesmen.

Add to that the fact that Merrifield’s most notable skills — hitting for average, speed on the bases, and good and versatile glovework — are not particularly well-compensated in the arbitration process. To be sure, they do show up indirectly in earnings since the process pays players who see a lot of playing time. But power stats (homers and ribbies) have tended to pay best over time than the harder-to-quantify areas of the game. Even stolen bases, the counting stat in which Merrifield shines, aren’t considered major drivers.

Whatever one thinks of Merrifield’s particular outlook, in terms of skills and health, the overall situation was one in which his anticipated future earnings were rather limited. In arbitration, barring a huge power burst, he’d have profiled as a strong but hardly record-shattering player. And his hypothetical free agency was laden with risk. How might he look as a player four years in the future? Nobody knows, but odds are he won’t be quite in his prime, since his pre-existing arbitration control extended through his age-33 season.

Let’s dig into the numbers to see why this is the case.

First, looking at the forthcoming arb years, we can check in on some second basemen and other comps to learn about what Merrifield might have taken home had he elected to go year to year. As I’ve noted previously, DJ LeMahieu represents an interesting overall comp since he just wrapped up his own arbitration run. After starting with a $3.0MM salary, and posting one big offensive season during his arb years, he finished with a $16.3MM total — a near-exact (and perhaps not coincidental) match for what Merrifield will receive.

When I first proposed that comp last March, Merrifield had yet to post his excellent 2018 season. As things stand, it’s not hard to see a path to more than $16.25MM. Just how high Merrifield could have climbed would obviously have been dependent upon what he does in the season to come, but we can guess at some parameters.

In terms of starting point, Merrifield ought to end up with a case for much greater earning power than LeMahieu (.284/.329/.370, 15 home runs, 157 RBI, 1,901 plate appearances) and Joe Panik (.282/.345/.408, 29 home runs, 170 RBI, 1,818 plate appearances), who earned $3.45MM in his first arb year. The Dodgers’ Chris Taylor rode a breakout 2017 and solid 2018 follow-up to a first-year arb salary of $3.5MM. He’s sitting on 39 home runs and 152 RBI with a .262/.331/.435 batting line through 1490 plate appearances. Even if Merrifield isn’t able to push or top twenty long balls in 2019, he’d surely be on track to carry a much more impressive overall statistical baseline than Taylor. He already has more plate appearances (1,669) and RBI (167) and nearly as many long balls (33), with a full season left to improve upon those tallies.

On the other hand, it’s tough to foresee anything like the 34-dinger outburst and second-place MVP finish that allowed Javier Baez to achieve a $5.2MM first-year arb salary. In all likelihood, depending upon how things play out in 2018, Merrifield likely would have commanded an arb-1 salary somewhere between the numbers we’ve thrown out for consideration — say, in the realm of $3.75MM to $4.75MM.

A few other mid-arb players also help illustrate how things could have proceeded in the event that Merrifield would have kept producing throughout his arb years, quite apart from the starting point. Shortstop Marcus Semien entered arb with sixty home runs and near-average total productivity through just under two thousand plate appearances. He earned $3.125MM in his first year after an injury-limited platform season and bumped up to $5.9MM in 2019 salary after launching 15 long balls in 703 plate appearances. Scooter Gennett jumped from a $2.525MM starting point to $5.7MM and $9.775MM salaries, driven by a total of fifty dingers and robust overall productivity in his final two platform campaigns.

With good fortune and some continued improvement, Merrifield could have tracked those or even greater raises. In the best-case, reasonably realistic scenario — fully healthy seasons at the top of his prior power levels (~20 home runs annually) — he might have started at a $4.5MM level and taken home successive $3.5MM raises. That would have resulted in $24MM of total arbitration salary.

Of course, it’s imaginable that Merrifield’s performance, and/or intervening health issues, could deflect him from that sort of path. Joe Panik had set the stage for bigger earnings than that (despite suffering a major ballpark-related disadvantage vis-a-vis LeMahieu), but stumbled after taking down $3.45MM in his arb1 season. He settled for just $3.8MM for the coming campaign and has no hope of approaching LeMahieu’s overall earning level.

Obviously, any kind of significant injury would sap any player’s ability to command a raise. Since Merrifield is not even in arbitration yet, an ill-timed and significant injury (say, in camp this spring) could have been extremely damaging to his earning power. Even if things went well for a time, Merrifield would always have been vulnerable to injuries or downturns in performance. That’s the same for any player, but the risks were amplified (and the future free agent benefits diminished) by his age.

It bears emphasis that the risks still apply before Merrifield would reach arbitration, since he’s still a full season away. Don’t believe me about the variance in arb earnings? Here’s an illustration, using some big names. Francisco Lindor nearly set a first-year-eligible record when he agreed to a $10.55MM contract earlier this month. He has been healthier and more productive of late than the fellow star shortstop of the same service class to whom he’s often compared — Carlos Correa, who edged Lindor in the 2015 Rookie of the Year vote. The Astros star’s salary remains unresolved, but will fall between $4.25MM and $5MM. Despite piling up plate appearances at the outset of his career, Correa is now over five hundred shy of Lindor due to some injuries. Unsurprisingly, he has also fallen behind his contemporary in home runs and holds only a slight edge in runs batted in. Correa still holds a clear edge in overall, park-adjusted offensive productivity (128 wRC+ vs. 120 wRC+), and is still considered an elite talent, but took a down year at the wrong time. Lindor’s playing time and power ramped up in his platform years, allowing him to more than double Correa’s first-year arb earning power.

If $24MM of arbitration earnings represented a best-case scenario, then the downside was more or less unlimited. Obviously, it’s hard to imagine that Merrifield would be cut out of significant future earnings entirely, barring a truly catastrophic injury. But he’s still a full season away. And as Panik shows, it’s not hard to craft a scenario where the earnings come in well short of their anticipated trajectory. The risks are clear.

If there’s something potentially objectionable about this arrangement from Merrifield’s perspective, perhaps it’s the fact that he coughed up a free agent season. That’s where the Royals could find some real upside, since they’ll have a chance to hang onto Merrifield for only a one-year commitment, when he could in theory be in position to take down quite a bit more in free agency.

That said, just what kind of open-market earning scenarios is Merrifield really sacrificing (or, at least pushing back by one year)? It seems rather unlikely, even from four years out, that he’ll enter the 2023 season thinking he left an enormous amount of money on the table.

Take this comparison. We can all agree that Merrifield has had an outstanding pair of seasons. He’s sitting on a .296/.347/.449 cumulative slash with 31 home runs and 79 steals, with his other contributions leading to a cumulative valuation of 9.3 rWAR / 8.1 fWAR. Compare that to Jed Lowrie, who once had his own breakout season at 29 years of age. He was injured in the interim but turned things on more recently. Lowrie just hit the open market at a slightly more advanced age than Merrifield would have, sporting a two-year platform of .272/.356/.448 hitting with 37 home runs and 8.8 rWAR / 8.5 fWAR.

Lowrie’s free agent take? Two years and $20MM. That salary level is reflected in the one option year that Merrifield gave the team in his new deal, which is valued at $10.5MM — again, as with the LeMahieu arb comp, perhaps not coincidentally.

Even in a highly optimistic scenario, such as the Ben Zobrist bidding war, there’s a limit to what this sort of player can earn in free agency. Zobrist was a hot commodity entering his age-35 season, having a long track record of excellent offensive production (well outstripping Merrifield’s overall record to this point) and defensive versatility. He secured a four-year, $56MM contract.

All things considered, this seems to be rather a fair arrangement for both sides. It’s a deal that lets the team avoid a runaway arbitration salary, and perhaps gain another season of a respected veteran at a bit of a discount rate. But it’s hardly the Jose Ramirez contract — another deal involving a two-plus service class infielder who was coming off of a breakout campaign. Ramirez, of course, was just 24 years of age and was just beginning an ascendancy that has continued to levels that were perhaps not anticipated at the time. His deal conveyed a pair of valuable team options — for his age-30 and 31 seasons. The sort of upside present there just isn’t available in the Merrifield contract.

For a 30-year-old, non-slugging infielder/outfielder who is still less than three campaigns into his MLB career, this extension lands in a sensible realm in terms of both length and total guarantee. Upon sifting through some other recent contracts, it’s not hard to see how the sides landed where they did.

AL Central Notes: Romero, Dozier, White Sox

By Jeff Todd | January 28, 2019 at 8:42am CDT

Young Twins hurler Fernando Romero is one of several of the club’s pitchers who could end up in a variety of roles when camp breaks, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. While the rotation appears to be largely settled, perhaps it’s not out of the question that he could force his way into a job there — or, of course, take an opening if there’s an injury. Otherwise, Romero could certainly head back to Triple-A to continue developing and serve as depth. Most intriguingly, though, is the possibility that he’d stay with the MLB club as a reliever. While there’s an argument to be made that doing so now might make it less likely to capture his true upside, the Twins see several elements that make Romero a particularly interesting relief candidate. His prior injury history is one element; it also stands to reason that he’d thrive if allowed to focus on his two best pitches (fastball/slider) in shorter stints. The front office still seems to be contemplating the possibilities — closer competitor? multi-inning piggyback mate for Martin Perez? — with plans to wait and see how things look in Fort Myers.

A few more items from the AL Central …

All indications are that the Royals believe they can rebound quickly from a down 2018 season and the loss of their prior slate of core players. That seems optimistic from the outside, but we certainly don’t know all that the club does about its own players. First/third baseman Hunter Dozier is one of several players who seems to have a big opportunity ahead of him, as John Sleezer of the Kansas City Star writes. Though he took his lumps in the big leagues last year, Dozier says he felt a change after he settled in at the game’s highest level. “Once things started clicking,” he says, “I got my confidence back and then it became a lot of fun again.” Of course, while Dozier did boost his performance later in the year, his .247/.287/.453 post-All-Star break slash line does highlight the biggest question facing him from an offseason perspective — i.e., whether he’ll consistently get on base. In the field, the team observed big strides, but it remains to be seen whether Dozier can handle third at even a roughly league-average level. He also graded as a very poor baserunner. Clearly, there’s plenty of risk in this profile, but the Royals still seem to have faith — or, at least, feel they need to use the coming season to see what they have in Dozier and a few other as-yet-unestablished players.
As the White Sox continue to chase Manny Machado, Mark Lazerus of The Athletic (subscription link) looks at what that has meant for some of the team’s existing infielders. Yolmer Sanchez and Tim Anderson, could stand to see their own situations disrupted — whether by a loss of playing time, a change of position, or perhaps even a trade. Both Sanchez and Anderson say they are in favor of anything that moves the club closer to putting a championship contender on the field, though the latter certainly did not sound particularly inclined to hand over his slot at shortstop. “I’m not just going to give him shortstop,” says Anderson of a hypothetical acquisition of Machado. “I’m not just going to bow to him. That’ my position. … It’s mine until somebody takes it.” Just what the team’s plans would be if they do secure Machado’s services aren’t clear. Many have wondered whether a promise to play him at short would be part of the bargain, though GM Rick Hahn did suggest the star has indicated he’ll defer to the team’s positional preferences. In any event, the first order of business is to get Manny (or perhaps another star) to sign on — an ongoing priority that Hahn has made no secret of.

Recovery Notes: Pineda, Nelson, Dubon, Seager, Zimmer

By TC Zencka | January 27, 2019 at 2:20pm CDT

Michael Pineda has yet to throw a pitch for the Twins, but he’s healthy now and ready to make his Twins debut in 2019, per Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. The Twins signed Pineda to a two-year, $10MM guarantee last December as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, hoping he might be ready for the latter half of the season. Just when it looked like Pineda was ready to return, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his knee, ending his season before it began. Injuries have been a constant for Pineda’s career, though he did put together back-to-back healthy campaigns for the Yankees in 2015 and 2016. His overall 4.05 ERA is boosted by a particularly strong rookie campaign, but across 680 innings in Seattle and New York, he did turn in 9.1 K/9 to 2.1 BB/9. The Twins are perhaps the most wait-and-see team in the league, with many volatile assets equally capable of All-Star seasons and bottoming out (Pineda, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop, among others). With no guaranteed money on the books for 2020, recent speculation has Minnesota as a sleeper team for either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Thad Levine threw some water on that idea, as he believes significant acquisitions of that variety are more appropriate for frontrunners atop a division, rather than a young team on the rise, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Certainly an interesting take from the Minnesota GM. Now, some more recovery news from around the league…

The Brewers will return an intriguing arm to their rotation this spring, as Jimmy Nelson is healthy and ready to go, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). Nelson will have no restrictions heading into Spring Training, and he’s not backing down from high expectations either, making clear his goal to get the nod on Opening Day – unlikely as that may be. Nelson put together an impressive campaign in 2017 that launched him to the top of the Milwaukee rotation, but it’s probably best to temper expectations after a torn labrum took his 2018. For Milwaukee, the tide is turning on what was seen as a rickety rotation leading up to the playoffs, as their starting staff now looks to be a source of potential strength. Jhoulys Chacin made himself irreplaceable in their run to the NLCS, and he’s backed by Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, both rebound candidates after subpar seasons. Add Nelson, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, among others, as contenders to join what now looks like a high-ceiling and deep, if unstable, unit.
Rosiak also notes (via Twitter) that prospects Keston Hiura and Mauricio Dubon are ready for a big year, rested in the former’s case and healthy after ACL surgery in the latter’s. While both will return to big league camp this spring, they’ve been told they won’t be with the team on Opening Day, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (via Twitter). None of this should come as a surprise, as it’s become the norm for top prospects to begin their debut seasons in Triple A, but it’s safe to say Hiura, at least, is hopeful to make an impact at the ML level sometime in 2019. Dubon, for his part, was ripping through Triple A before the surgery, hitting .343/.348/.574 in 27 games with Colorado Springs.
Corey Seager hasn’t taken batting practice since his injury last May, but he’s long-tossing in preparation for an important spring back in the middle of the Dodgers infield, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Seager isn’t yet mobilizing for groundballs or throwing across the diamond, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery has gone according to plan thus far and hope remains that he’ll be ready by Opening Day. He’s hitting off a tee, with the next steps being batting practice in the cage before going against live pitching. The Dodgers have the depth to cover for Seager if he’s not ready by Opening Day – with Chris Taylor the most likely stand-in – but he’s obviously a huge part of their team moving forward.
The Royals fanbase is still waiting for the long-heralded debut of former top draft choice Kyle Zimmer, but it seems nearly time after he signed a major league contract this winter, per the Kansas City Star’ s Lynn Worthy. Zimmer was the 5th overall pick of the 2012 draft, but he missed the entirety of 2018 while training at the Driveline Baseball pitching program. Even so, he was clocked in the mid-90s this fall, and the Royals weren’t alone in competing for Zimmer’s services, hence the major league contract. Said GM Dayton Moore of the deal, “I would rather have him fail with us than go somewhere else and succeed.” While that’s not exactly a rousing sentiment, and it could be read as vindictive, that does not appear to be Moore’s intent, who praised Zimmer for his mindset and toughness. For Zimmer’s part, he spoke glowingly of the Royals longstanding support and loyalty in his continued journey to toe a major league rubber. If he can stay healthy, there’s opportunity enough for Zimmer to make his debut at Kauffman Stadium sometime in 2019, and despite Moore’s omission of Zimmer’s potential success with the Royals as one of his potential futures, that’s surely the goal for both parties.

AL Notes: Davidson, O’s, Kelley, Gonzalez, Rays

By Steve Adams | January 23, 2019 at 11:01pm CDT

To no one’s surprise, the rebuilding Orioles have been extremely quiet this offseason, focusing more on front office, player development and analytics hires while also piecing together a coaching staff under new GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde. However, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Baltimore does have some interest in free-agent corner infielder/designated hitter Matt Davidson, who was non-tendered by the White Sox earlier this winter. Davidson, 28 in March, more than doubled his career walk rate last season, drawing a free pass at a 10.5 percent clip after walking in just 4.3 percent of his plate appearances in 2017. However, the increase in patience came with a bit of a dip in power, and strikeouts remained a severe issue (33.3 percent). In all, the slugger hit .228/.319/.419 with 20 big flies in 496 plate appearances. Davidson has 46 home runs in his past 939 PAs but is still a work in progress at the plate. He could potentially give Baltimore some pop off the bench, and his right-handed bat could help to shield Chris Davis from opposing lefties as the veteran attempts to rebound from a catastrophic 2018 season.

Royals’ Eric Skoglund Suspended 80 Games

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2019 at 4:59pm CDT

Royals left-hander Eric Skoglund has been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for “Selective Androgen Receptor Modulators S-22 (Ostarine) and LGD-4033 (Ligandrol),” the league announced Wednesday.

Skoglund, 26, would presumably have been in the mix for a rotation spot with the Royals this spring but will instead sit out the first half of the season without pay. The 2014 third-rounder has had some success at the Triple-A level thus far in his career but has not yet broken out as a reliable MLB option in Kansas City. In 14 appearances for the Royals in 2018 (13 starts), Skoglund pitched to a 5.14 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9 and a 42.1 percent ground-ball rate. He does have a 4.13 ERA with nearly a punchout per inning and similar control numbers through 109 innings with the Royals’ top minor league affiliate in Omaha.

Kansas City presently figures to open the season with Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, Brad Keller and Ian Kennedy in the rotation. Skoglund’s subtraction from the race for the fifth spot will give names like Jesse Hahn, Trevor Oaks, Heath Fillmyer and Ben Lively a greater chance of making some starts in the early stages of a 2019 season that appears destined to be a rebuilding year for the Royals as they work to develop a new core following their 2015 World Series Championship.

The suspension will open a spot on the Royals’ 40-man roster, which had previously been full.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/13/19

By Mark Polishuk | January 13, 2019 at 11:59pm CDT

Catching up on some recent minor league moves from around the baseball world….

The Cubs signed catcher Francisco Arcia to a minor league deal, as originally reported by the Cubs Prospects Twitter feed. Originally signed as a teenager by the Yankees in 2006, the 29-year-old Arcia finally cracked the big leagues last season, appearing 40 games for the Angels and hitting .204/.226/.427 with six homers over 106 plate appearances. Arcia will provide the Cubs with some depth behind backup Victor Caratini, and Arcia could also battle for the backup role himself in Spring Training.
The Rays signed right-hander Luis Santos to a minors contract, Baseball America’s Matthew Eddy reports. Santos posted a 5.15 ERA over 36 2/3 innings out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen over the last two seasons, though a big problem with the long ball (2.0 HR/9) belied some better peripherals, such as a 9.8 K/9 and a 2.86 K/BB rate.
Also from Eddy, the Rockies re-signed left-hander Sam Howard to a minors deal, after originally non-tendering Howard at the start of December. Howard was a third-round pick for the Rockies in 2014, and he made his Major League debut last season, tossing four innings over four games with Colorado. MLB.com ranks Howard as the 24th-best prospect in the Rockies’ farm system, describing him as a potential fourth starter in the big leagues “if he can improve his slider and command.”
The Padres signed left-hander Eric Stout to a minor league contract, according to Zone Coverage’s Brandon Warne (Twitter link). Stout posted a 3.68 ERA, 2.63 K/BB rate, and 7.4 K/9 over 269 1/3 career innings in the Royals’ farm system, appearing as a reliever in all but five of his 153 career games. Stout also made his MLB debut in 2018, appearing in three games for Kansas City.
Also from Warne, the Royals inked infielder Taylor Featherston to a minors contract. After playing in 137 games with the Angels, Phillies, and Rays from 2015-17, Featherston didn’t see any Major League action last season, spending time in the farm systems of the Twins and Reds, plus a short stint in independent ball. Featherston has offered more with the glove than his bat over his career, with a lot of experience at second base, third base, and shortstop, plus some time as a left field and first baseman.
The Giants have signed righty Keyvius Sampson to a minors deal. Sampson makes his return to North American baseball after spending 2018 with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, posting a 4.68 ERA over 161 2/3 IP for the Eagles and posting a league-best 195 strikeouts. Sampson has pitched for five different MLB organizations during his 10-year pro career, though he only reached the majors for 91 2/3 innings with the Reds in 2015-16.
The Giants also signed second baseman Donovan Solano to a minors deal, as per the Giants Prospects Twitter feed. Solano was a regular for the Marlins in his first three MLB seasons, though he appeared more sporadically for the Marlins and Yankees in 2015-16 and hasn’t since returned to the Show, playing for the Yankees’ and Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliates over the last two seasons. Playing mostly as a second baseman but with some experience around the infield, Solano has a .257/.306/.331 slash line over 1168 MLB plate appearances.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/11/19

By Steve Adams | January 11, 2019 at 9:32am CDT

We’ll keep track of the day’s minor moves here…

The Red Sox have brought outfielder Bryce Brentz back to the organization on a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, the team revealed in announcing a series of non-roster invitations. Now 30 years old, Brentz was drafted by the Red Sox in 2010 and stuck with the organization through 2017 before landing with the Mets. He batted .264/.332/.580 with 15 homers and 16 doubles for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League last season. Brentz saw brief MLB action with Boston in 2014 and 2016, hitting a combined .287/.311/.379 in 90 trips to the plate.
Infielder Cheslor Cuthbert cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Omaha, the Royals announced. He’d been designated for assignment earlier in the week. Cuthbert, 26, long rated as one of Kansas City’s best prospects and showed a bit of promise in 2016 when he hit .274/.318/.413 in 510 plate appearances as a rookie. However, he’s followed that up with a dismal .215/.278/.313 slash in 270 PAs over the past two seasons. The corner infielder could yet emerge in the Majors again with a strong showing in Triple-A, of course.
Catcher Tomas Telis and left-handed reliever Dario Alvarez have joined the Twins on minor league contracts, writes La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Telis, 27, has spent the past three and a half seasons in the Marlins organization but struggled to produce in limited stints at the big league level. He’s a career .230/.267/.298 hitter in 267 Major League plate appearances but owns a strong .304/.349/.413 slash in nearly 1500 Triple-A plate appearances. Alvarez, 30 next week, has a 5.06 ERA in 48 MLB innings but has also racked up 61 strikeouts in that time. He’s been far too homer-prone (1.9 HR/9) and, at times, has struggled with control, but Alvarez has averaged 11+ strikeouts per nine innings in both the Majors and over a nine-year minor league career.

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