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Greg Holland To Undergo Tommy John Surgery On Friday

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Royals right-hander Greg Holland will undergo Tommy John surgery to repair what was said last week to be a “significant” tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament, reports MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link).

The surgery may very well bring Holland’s Royals career to an end. The former closer eligible for arbitration for the final time this offseason and would be due a raise on this year’s $8.25MM salary. As he won’t pitch for most, if not all of the 2016 season, the Royals will most likely non-tender him, making him a free agent. Holland, of course, could sign some form of backloaded, two-year extension in the interim or return to the club on a restructured deal following his non-tender, but if it reaches that point, Kansas City will have to compete with the other 29 clubs to see which is willing to present him and newly hired agent Scott Boras with the best opportunity.

Manager Ned Yost said at the time his injury became public knowledge last week that he believes the damage in Holland’s elbow to date all the way back to last August. The Royals are said to have asked Holland to get the elbow checked out on multiple occasions this season, but Holland’s preference was always to pitch through the discomfort. Ultimately, though, his September struggles became too significant, and with his fastball sitting in the high 80s (as opposed to its typical residence in the mid 90s), Holland underwent an MRI, bringing him to this outcome.

If the timeline of the injury is accurate, then Holland’s postseason efforts and first half of the 2015 season are nothing short of incredible. He pitched 11 innings of one-run ball in last year’s postseason, notching a 15-to-5 K/BB ratio in that time. In the first half of the 2015 season, Holland recorded a 2.70 ERA with 31 strikeouts (against an uncharacteristic and, in hindsight, ominous 15 walks) in 26 2/3 innings.

To this point in his career, the 29-year-old has a 2.42 ERA with 12.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 145 saves in 319 2/3 innings. All of those innings came as a member of the Royals, who selected Holland in the 10th round of the 2007 draft.

Cafardo On Cueto, Angels, Red Sox

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe looks at the recent phenomenon of teams installing various layers of upper management.  Lately, teams have taken to employing a president of baseball operations, a GM, and then one or two assistant GMs underneath that person.  In baseball circles, this has become known as “title inflation,” Cafardo writes.  One source says that small market teams don’t like this trend, presumably because the larger market teams are able to pluck execs away with fancier titles that really amount to a lateral move.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • One AL exec told Cafardo that he stayed away from Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline because of a possible elbow issue.  Many believed that Cueto’s elbow didn’t dampen his trade value this summer since he returned to action for the Reds and continued to pitch well, but we know now that it was a turnoff for at least one club.  Since coming over to the Royals, Cueto owns a 4.99 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 across eleven starts, and one can’t help but wonder if the elbow is a factor.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently dropped Cueto to eighth in his 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings.
  • Many believe the biggest factor in the Angels’ GM search will be the ability of each candidate to co-exist with manager Mike Scioscia, Cafardo writes. Scioscia, the longtime Halos skipper, has had a fair amount of say in personnel decisions over the years.  Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler has a “good shot” at getting the job, per Cafardo.
  • Cafardo wonders aloud if the Red Sox will allow Torey Lovullo to pursue managerial opportunities this winter.  Lovullo has managed the Red Sox in Farrell’s absence and now has the managerial experience that teams were previously concerned about.
  • Former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire appears ready to get back into managing, Cafardo writes.
  • Jason Varitek, currently serving as a special assistant for the Red Sox, has been mentioned as a managerial candidate.  However, the former catcher’s top priority right now is his family, so it’s not clear if he’d be ready for that kind of grind and commitment.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Byrnes, Rangers, Baker, Holland

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As was reported earlier, Josh Byrnes is a candidate for a role in the Angels’ front office, notes Ken Rosenthal in his latest video for FOX Sports. It would be surprising to see Byrnes join the Angels. He’s twice lost jobs while working for difficult owners. Angels owner Arte Moreno”fits the same mold.”

Here’s more from Rosenthal:

  • The Rangers have a logjam of left-handed hitters and outfielders. Improved play from Mitch Moreland and Shin-Soo Choo should offer some flexibility this offseason. Potential star prospects like Nomar Mazara, Lewis Brinson, and Joey Gallo are all on the cusp of the majors.
  • Why should Dusty Baker consider managing for the Marlins? Rosenthal thinks they’re likely to overpay. Their history of firing managers also means Baker could take home three years of money for one season of work. Personally, I view that as a discouraging “advantage.” More importantly, the Marlins still have a ton of young talent headlined by Giancarlo Stanton.
  • Greg Holland’s elbow injury will allow the Royals to non-tender him without much regret. Had he remained healthy, the club probably would have tried to trade him. Now they can instead pursue a multi-year, incentive-laden extension.

Sherman’s Latest: Alderson, Cashman, Anthopoulos, Moore

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Barring an epic collapse, the Mets and Yankees will reach the postseason together for the first time since 2006, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. In fact, the Mets clinched the NL East just a few minutes ago. Sherman takes a look at how both New York franchises reached October baseball via important offseason and trade deadline moves. Here’s more on Sandy Alderson, Brian Cashman, and others.

  • Alderson whiffed on his offseason moves for a second year in a row, per Sherman. Sean Gilmartin, a solid middle reliever, was the best acquisition. Alderson forfeited the Mets’ first round pick and a bundle of cash to sign Michael Cuddyer. That move has seemingly backfired. A lack of depth hurt the club until mid-season when he acquired Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, and Yoenis Cespedes. The promotion of Michael Conforto has also helped.
  • The Yankees experienced the polar opposite story. Cashman’s only in-season move of note was the acquisition of Dustin Ackley. However, he spiked the offseason. Rather than invest in more expensive, old players, Cashman focused on youth. First, he gambled that closer Andrew Miller could match the production of former Yankee David Robertson for less money. Cashman was right, and he earned a compensation pick when the White Sox inked Robertson. He also did well to acquire Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi (if Eovaldi can avoid a second Tommy John surgery).
  • While Alderson and Cashman have been vindicated, they won’t win the executive of the year. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos may have had the biggest impact on his roster by acquiring Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Devon Travis, David Price, and Troy Tulowitzki. However, those players were costly – both in prospects and financially.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore is another candidate for top executive. He made a couple unpopular moves that have turned out well, especially the signings of Kendrys Morales and Edinson Volquez. He also acquired Kris Medlen, Ryan Madson, Johnny Cueto, and Ben Zobrist. The club ran away with the AL Central after their surprising success in 2014.
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels has surged up the list. His club was treading water when he traded for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman at the July deadline. Now Texas is on the cusp of clinching the AL West. He also added Yovani Gallardo prior to the season. Sam Dyson and Mike Napoli were smaller in-season moves. While the acquisition of Hamels may have reinvigorated the club, I still wonder how history will view the trade.
  • Meanwhile, Pirates GM Neal Huntington works below the radar, but his role in rostering Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Francisco Cervelli, Jung-ho Kang, Aramis Ramirez, J.A. Happ, and others should not be underestimated. The club’s depth and versatility is a big reason for their success.
  • The Braves may have the second worst record in baseball, but GM John Hart did well to accept reality and rebuild. His remodeling should help the club prepare to contend in 2017 when their new stadium opens. In the process, Hart cleared dead weight off the payroll and improved the farm system dramatically. Personally, my favorite move was the creative swap for Touki Toussaint.

AL Central Notes: Holland, Floyd, Rondon

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Congratulations are in order for the Royals tonight, as their victory, combined with a Twins loss, means that Kansas City has officially clinched the American League Central Division championship. The Royals had their doubters — myself included — but have taken the division in decisive fashion. As the champagne flows at Kauffman Stadium, here are a few notes from around the division…

  • Greg Holland will probably undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future, as the Royals announced earlier today that he has a “significant” tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament and will seek a second opinion next week. Manager Ned Yost said at the time that Holland’s ligament damage may date back to last August. As Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star tweets, trainer Nick Kenney likened the injury to that of Masahiro Tanaka, who suffered a small tear in his own UCL last summer but has pitched without issue in 2015. That would seemingly indicate that Holland’s initial tear was relatively minor in nature but has been exacerbated by pitching through it in the 2014 playoffs and throughout the 2015 season.
  • MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes that Holland’s injury brings his future with the Royals into question. As I noted at the time the news broke, Holland’s $8.25MM salary and arbitration eligibility this winter make it a certainty that he’ll be non-tendered this offseason if and when he undergoes Tommy John surgery. Flanagan writes that a two-year deal with a marginal 2016 base salary and an incentive-laden structure in 2017 could be a solution, though I wonder if new agent Scott Boras will be amenable to such a possibility. GM Dayton Moore hopes to see Holland remain with the Royals in the future, per Flanagan, though Moore avoided making any sort of definitive statement: “I will say that Holly is one of the very best competitors I’ve ever been around. I admire him a great deal. I hope he’s a part of our organization the remainder of his career.”
  • Right-hander Gavin Floyd has missed most of the season after re-fracturing the olecranon bone in his right elbow, but he’s returned to the Indians’ bullpen late this season and tells Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer that he’d be interested in returning to Cleveland. “Despite the circumstances of not being able to play, I loved getting to know the guys and the city,” Floyd explained. “…I’d definitely be interested (in resigning) for sure.” Floyd has received strong bottom-line results working out of the ’pen, tallying a 2.61 ERA in 10 1/3 innings since returning. Floyd’s 6-to-4 K/BB ratio is less impressive, but his velocity is strong as ever. There’s been speculation about Cleveland perhaps trading a young starter to fill needs elsewhere on the roster, and as Hoynes notes, Floyd could be brought back as veteran depth to fill out the rotation should that scenario play out.
  • Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos touched on the organization’s decision to send Bruce Rondon home for the season due to his effort level in an appearance with Matt Dery on 105.1 radio in Detroit (audio link). Without getting too specific, Castellanos noted that some in the clubhouse were “unhappy with his antics” but still said the move by management came as a surprise to him. Castellanos said that he and others in the organization feel that Rondon can still be a valuable part of the team going forward, adding that he feels Rondon has the raw talent to be an “All-Star caliber closer” but now needs to harness the necessary intangibles to realize that potential.

Greg Holland Has “Significant” Tear In UCL; Tommy John Surgery Likely

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4:08pm: Holland has a “significant” tear in his UCL, according to manager Ned Yost (via McCullough). Tommy John surgery is the likely course of action. Yost now believes Holland tore the ligament last August, meaning he pitched last September and the postseason as well as all of 2015 with a tear in the ligament. The Royals asked Holland to get his elbow checked out multiple times this season, McCullough adds, but he declined each time until last month.

3:55pm: Holland tells reporters, including McCullough (Twitter links) that an MRI taken earlier this month revealed ligament damage. He has, in fact, been battling discomfort since last August but did not want to undergo an MRI previously, as his desire was instead to pitch through the pain.

3:47pm: The Royals announced today that closer Greg Holland has been shut down for the season. Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports that Dr. Neal ElAttrache will examine Holland’s elbow next week (Twitter links). Per McCullough, the possibility of Tommy John surgery is looming, but nothing will be known until next week.

Holland was recently removed from the closer’s role in favor of Wade Davis. The formerly dominant closer has seen his velocity dramatically decrease recently and has posted a dismal 5.50 ERA on 24 hits and 11 walks in 18 second-half innings. His decline and subsequent loss for the postseason is a huge blow to the Royals, who reached Game 7 of the World Series in 2014 based largely on the dominant performances of Holland, Davis and Kelvin Herrera. Holland’s departure from the bullpen mix makes GM Dayton Moore’s signing of Ryan Madson look like that much more of a coup, as the former Phillies closer has rebounded decisively after a three-year absence due to injury; Madson has a brilliant 2.31 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 in 58 1/3 innings this season.

The injury to Holland will put the Royals in a precarious position this winter. Always a team on a tight budget, there were questions last winter about Kansas City’s ability to pay both Holland and Davis at relatively premium rates. Holland took home an $8.25MM salary via the arbitration process, and he’ll be arb-eligible for the third and final time this winter. That means that Holland, who recently hired Scott Boras as his new agent, could be in line for a salary near or in excess of $10MM in spite of his second half struggles.

In the event that Holland requires Tommy John surgery, he’d be an easy call to non-tender, although that would be a disappointing way to end the Royals tenure of such a key organizational figure. The real dilemma, however, will be what to do with Holland in the event that he does not require Tommy John or any form of major surgery. One would imagine that his trade value is down due to underperformance, salary and, now, injury. The Royals could roll the dice and tender him a contract, but this year’s $112MM payroll is a club record. For a team that typically has operated with a sub-$100MM payroll, paying a potentially damaged relief pitcher $10MM+ is a dicey proposal, so the prospect of a non-tender for Holland has to be considered even in the event that major surgery isn’t required.

Vesting Options Update

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With the regular season nearing its end, we have some clarity on several vesting clauses around the game. Let’s take a look at where things stand …

  • Chase Utley, Dodgers: There’s no chance that Utley’s $15MM option — the first of three in succession — will vest. (He’d need 110 plate appearances over the final two weeks of the season to reach 500.) Instead, Utley will become subject to a team option — the value of which floats between $5MM and $11MM based upon days spent on the DL. The precise details have yet to be reported, so it’s not yet clear how much it would cost Los Angeles to control the veteran. Neither is it known whether the team would have interest; Utley has a mediocre .200/.296/.347 slash over 108 plate appearances with the Dodgers.
  • Jonathan Papelbon, Nationals: This one was taken care of as part of the deal that sent Papelbon to D.C. from the Phillies. Papelbon helped facilitate the swap by agreeing to take $11MM to throw next year for the Nats. He was already likely to reach the requirements for his option to vest at $13MM, but that agreement greased the wheels on a move he desperately wanted and removed any doubt as to his payday.
  • David Ortiz, Red Sox: Big Papi has blown well past the 425 plate appearances he needed for his 2016 option to vest, though he’ll also need to pass an offseason physical. The question now is the value of the option. It has already reached $15MM, but would go higher if he makes his 600th trip to the dish. In that case, it will go to $16MM (or, if it’s more than that, the value of the qualifying offer). Ortiz has earned it, with another huge season and successful run at 500 career home runs.
  • Joaquin Benoit, Padres: Benoit needed to finish 55 games for to his $8MM option to vest. That can’t happen, so it’ll turn into a team option. It’s a fair sum for a reliever, but Benoit continues to put up strong results at 38 years of age.
  • Marlon Byrd, Giants: The 38-year-old sits at 502 plate appearances. He needs 48 more the rest of the way to reach 550 total, which, in combination with those accumulated last year, would be sufficient for his $8MM option to vest for 2016. With 13 games left, it’s still possible that he could reach the needed total, but that’ll depend heavily on playing time — and San Francisco may well not wish to be on the hook for that kind of cash.
  • Santiago Casilla, Giants: As MLBTR reported, Casilla needs 55 games finished for his $7.5MM option to vest for 2016. The situation is somewhat similar to Byrd’s. With 49 finished games in the bank so far, it’s still possible — but, perhaps, unlikely — for Casilla to reach the necessary tally.
  • Nori Aoki, Giants: Due to injuries, the outfielder is stalled well shy of the 550 plate appearances he needed to turn a $5.5MM club option into one of the mutual variety. That could still be an appealing price tag for a player who performed well when healthy.
  • Jonny Gomes, Royals: Gomes needs 325 plate appearances for a $3MM club option for 2016 to become guaranteed. He only has 246, and hasn’t been used much in Kansas City, so that’s not happening.

We already know that Cliff Lee won’t achieve the innings totals required for his 2016 option to vest, as the Phillies southpaw hasn’t pitched all season and is attempting to recover from a torn left flexor tendon without undergoing surgery.  Brandon League also hasn’t pitched this season and has been released by the Dodgers, so he won’t reach the games-finished total required to allow his 2016 player option to vest.

AL Central Notes: Cueto, Twins, Chisenhall, Indians

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Johnny Cueto’s struggles over the past month with the Royals have been well-documented, but he looked considerably better on Friday (7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K), and as Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star writes, the improved results could have been due to changes made by someone other than Cueto himself. Cueto admitted to manager Ned Yost and catcher Salvador Perez that he had an issue with Perez’s positioning behind he plate, McCullough writes, and they worked out a new gameplan in a closed-door meeting. The exchange was respectful on both sides, and Cueto was a bit hesitant to even suggest the alterations, per Yost. “He understood that Salvy’s a three-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glover,” said Yost. “He’s not going to come in and tell him what to do.” Catching coach Pedro Grifol explained that Perez’s tendency is to set up higher than where the pitch’s ultimate target is, then adjust as the pitcher is delivering. Cueto prefers a lower target that’s set as he begins his delivery, as he likes throwing directly to the glove. There is, of course, only one start’s worth of data to suggest that the changes will yield better results, and this does little to explain how Cueto was initially so successful in Kansas City before beginning to struggle after a handful of starts.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • The Twins will pay a small luxury tax (abut $38K) for slightly exceeding their international bonus pool on shortstop Wander Javier’s $4MM bonus, but VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff explains to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune why they’ve shied away from pool-shattering spending sprees that would prevent them from signing players for more than $250K in future periods. The Twins have been content to sign one top-tier talent and then fill in the gaps with smaller signings recently. “Otherwise, you’re forced to evaluate 13-year-olds to judge whether the strategy will pay off,” said Radcliff. “and that’s not going to work.” Radcliff did note that the pool-shattering concept has been discussed internally and called it a “legitimate strategy,” noting that it does have its merits.
  • In his latest reader inbox column, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tackles a number of Indians-related topics, including Lonnie Chisenhall’s future and the team’s free agent approach. Hoynes points out that Chisenhall has played astoundingly good defense since his move to right field, potentially putting him in line for everyday at-bats in 2016. While Chisenhall’s defensive work in right comes with the usual small sample caveat — it’s just 278 innings — he’s posted incredible marks of +11 Defensive Runs Saved and a +7.6 Ultimate Zone Rating (translating to an unsustainable but eye-popping UZR/150 of 46.4).
  • As far as free agency is concerned, Hoynes writes that Cleveland has “made it clear” that it will not be a big player in the free agent market. The team is still stinging from its signings of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn and will pursue trades and international signings or try to find another Scott Kazmir “lightning in a bottle” addition rather than spend for top-tier names. Hoynes also notes that the Indians want to give Trevor Bauer another chance to start in spite of his poor second half and downplays his status as a potential trade candidate.

AL East Notes: Sabathia, Red Sox, Jepsen

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Though he gutted out a quality start after a tough first inning last night,Yankees southpaw  CC Sabathia is dealing with bone-on-bone arthritis in his right knee, the left-hander told MLB.com’s Barry Bloom last night. Sabathia told Bloom that he’ll eventually need knee replacement surgery, but “that’s the price you pay.” Sabathia has been wearing a brace on his injured knee which he says prevents the ligaments in the joint from rubbing together when he plants to throw a pitch. As such, he’s able to maintain his mechanics.

A few more notes from around the AL to kick off the week…

  • The Red Sox could use an “alpha dog” atop their rotation, writes Peter Gammons of the MLB Network and GammonsDaily.com. Gammons breaks down a number of options for the Sox, including Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda (whom, according to one scout that spoke to Gammons, is “too slight” to pitch every fifth day in the Majors). Gammons outlines the case for and against the Sox reeling in top free agents David Price and Zack Greinke within his column, and he also looks at Johnny Cueto’s struggles since over the past month with the Royals.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that while the trade of Kevin Jepsen from the Rays to the Twins doesn’t stand out as one of the more memorable deals from this past deadline, it had a significant impact on the Rays’ clubhouse. There was a feeling in the air that the team had given up by trading one of its top setup men to a team they were chasing in the Wild Card race, Topkin hears from people around the clubhouse, especially considering that the return was a pair of low-level minor leaguers who weren’t going to contribute in 2014.

AL Central Notes: Tribe, Cueto, Hunter, Joba

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After the Indians traded several veterans at the July deadline, manager Terry Francona asked remaining team leaders like Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis and Corey Kluber if they could draft a type of “accountability contract” for the rest of team, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.  “It’s just a matter of playing the game the right way,” Gomes said. “We’re building a culture and we’re building a way that we believe in. That’s pretty much all I can say.”  After several weeks of finalizing the wording, the contract was passed out to Cleveland players this week and signed by the group.  As Gomes put it, “I think we’re going to be here for a long time together.  So, we figured, if we really put together something that us guys that will be here for a long time, something that we really believe in, and we truly live by it and we enforce it, then I think guys will come around and follow it. It was something we really wanted to put together.”

Here’s some more from around the AL Central…

  • Johnny Cueto’s recent struggles have “baseball people wondering again about the health of his elbow, among other issues,” Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  Cueto was excellent over his first four starts since joining the Royals and then posted a 9.57 ERA over his next five outings before rebounding with a very solid outing (7 IP, two ER, eight hits, four K’s) on Friday against Detroit.  He missed some time with elbow stiffness earlier this season while pitching for the Reds, though he didn’t go on the DL and the ailment ultimately didn’t hurt his trade value since Cueto returned and continued to pitch well.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently dropped Cueto to eighth in his 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings, so it’s looking like Cueto will need a strong finish in both the regular season and playoffs to regain some earning potential.
  • The Twins wouldn’t engage in extension talks with Torii Hunter’s representatives this summer, ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link).  Nick Cafardo reported earlier today that the Twins indeed want Hunter to return for 2016, and since Hunter has himself said he’s taking his playing future on a year-to-year basis, it could simply be a case of the club waiting until the season and playoff race is over before getting into future contractual business.  As Wolfson notes in a subtweeted response to his original message, Twins manager Paul Molitor particularly wants Hunter back.
  • Brad Ausmus isn’t sure the Tigers made the right move in releasing Joba Chamberlain in July, he told reporters (including James Schmehl of MLive.com).  Asked if he second-guessed the transaction, Ausmus admitted that, “Yeah.  I did. Even at the time, I didn’t know if it was the best idea.”  Chamberlain posted a 4.09 ERA over 22 innings for the Tigers (a number possibly inflated by BABIP and an ungainly home run rate) before moving on to minor league deals with Toronto and Kansas City and eventually returning to the bigs as a Royal.  While Chamberlain’s numbers weren’t anything special, he still would’ve been an upgrade to a Detroit bullpen that has been one of the worst in the game this year.
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