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Olney On Hamilton, Brewers, Lohse

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The Brewers could pursue Josh Hamilton this offseason if the free agent outfielder doesn’t get any offers for four-plus years and more than $100MM, ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes. Here are more notes from Olney’s column…

  • The Brewers aren’t positioned to give Hamilton a massive contract, but they can offer him a comfortable place to play where he’d be supported. Johnny Narron, his former mentor, works as Milwaukee’s hitting coach, and Brewers bench coach Jerry Narron also knows the 31-year-old. While many outsiders lack detailed information about Hamilton’s off-field issues, the Narron brothers know the outfielder well enough to make a determination about his ability to continue producing.
  • At this point the Brewers intend to pursue multiple starters this offseason.
  • General managers expect free agent starting pitchers to do well this year, since there’s a shortage of viable options at a time that many teams are flush with dollars. The Blue Jays, Royals, Cubs and Angels are among the many teams known to be seeking starting pitching.
  • Some agents and general managers believe free agent starter Kyle Lohse could command a deal in the $60-75MM range, Olney reports.

AL Central Notes: Cespedes, Boesch, Francona, Soria

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As the Tigers prepare to face the A's in the deciding game of their ALDS series, here's the latest from the AL Central…

  • The Tigers "had a de facto deal" with Yoenis Cespedes last winter, reports Peter Gammons for MLB.com, before the Tigers instead chose to sign Prince Fielder.  Cespedes, of course, signed with the A's instead and now could play a role in the end of Detroit's season.
  • Brennan Boesch wasn't on the Tigers' playoff roster and his "days likely are numbered in Detroit," writes Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press.  Boesch hit a disappointing .240/.286/.372 last season and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, so the Tigers might not tender him a contract.  Sharp hints that Rick Porcello could also be non-tendered (Porcello is arb-eligible for the second time), though with so many pitching-needy teams in baseball, the Tigers might be better served by dealing Porcello than cutting him outright.
  • The reported out clause in Terry Francona's Indians contract that allows the manager to leave if GM Chris Antonetti or president Mark Shapiro are fired is not a big deal, opines Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  "Shapiro and Antonetti owe their futures with the Tribe to Francona" already, Pluto argues, so if the team continues to struggle, a total change in front office and field management is the logical next step.
  • The Indians are much more likely to pursue upgrades through the trade market than through free agency, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
  • “It’s better for me and my family (to stay with the Royals)," Joakim Soria tells Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.  "My wife is pregnant. I’m just focusing on my rehab. The most important thing is for me to get healthy. After that, everything else will come together."  Dutton says that Royals team officials "privately acknowledge" that Soria's $8MM option for 2013 will be bought out within three days of the World Series ending, though both sides are interested in reaching a new contract.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals will pursue pitching in the hopes that a deeper starting staff will result in the club's first winning record in a decade.

Guaranteed Contracts 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Free Agents

The Royals haven't had an elite starter since they traded Zack Greinke to Milwaukee two winters ago. This offseason GM Dayton Moore will seek rotation help as Greinke hits free agency for the first time in his career. While the Royals aren't expected to be the high bidder for their former ace, they appear ready to spend on starting pitching.

Jeremy Guthrie - Royals (PW)

Unless they obtain rotation help, it'll be hard for the Royals to win more games than they lose. Royals starters completed 890 innings this past season, the third-lowest total in MLB. The team's starters combined for an ERA of 5.01 (26th in MLB) while ranking toward the bottom of the league in strikeout rate (6.5 K/9, 25th in MLB), walk rate (3.2 BB/9, 24th in MLB) and ground ball rate (41.7%, 30th in MLB).

To be fair, Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy missed most of the season with injuries and Jonathan Sanchez was far less effective than expected. But injuries limit just about every team, and general managers must create depth beyond the top five names on the pre-season depth chart. This winter the Royals could look to re-sign Jeremy Guthrie, who pitched well in his return to the American League, posting a 3.16 ERA in 14 starts. No one's going to mistake him for a top-of-the-rotation starter, yet there's value in players like Guthrie, as long as the financial commitment remains modest — say a short-term deal for no more than $7MM annually.

Luke Hochevar pitched himself into possible non-tender territory, posting an ERA of 5.73. No organization likes to give up on a former first overall pick, so Hochevar could be tendered a contract this offseason. He'd earn $4MM-plus if he's offered arbitration.

Regardless of what happens with Guthrie and Hochevar, the Royals have Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, Paulino and Duffy in place for 2013. It'd be encouraging to see the team pursue a top-of-the-rotation option to supplement this group, and owner David Glass has indicated he's willing to spend to improve his team's rotation.

Greinke's name will no doubt surface, since the longtime Royals starter will be available in free agency. Other free agents, such as Kyle Lohse and Anibal Sanchez appear to intrigue Moore at a time that the rotation lacks anything resembling an ace. The free agent market will probably include familiar names such as Dan Haren and Jake Peavy and pitchers like Josh Johnson, Jason Vargas and Justin Masterson could be available in trades. David Price could be a tantalizing trade target, even though the Rays would inevitably ask for an elite young position player — Wil Myers perhaps? — in return for the 27-year-old who might be the top left-hander in baseball.

Conversely, the Royals' bullpen was a force in 2012. Not only did Kansas City's relievers pitch more innings than every team except the convention-defying Rockies, the group ranked sixth in ERA (3.17) and led MLB bullpens in wins above replacement (7.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs). This hard-throwing group (93.8 mph average fastball, third in MLB) is generally young and controllable, which means most of these arms will return. Still, every team should pursue relief help over the course of the offseason, since injuries inevitably occur and some players regress. Moore has also traded relievers such as Jonathan Broxton for prospects in the past, so surplus relief wouldn't necessarily be a problem.

Improbably, the Royals' bullpen pitched this well without a single inning from the team's most prominent reliever. Right-hander Joakim Soria missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and his status with the team now looks uncertain. Soria's contract includes an $8MM option and while he has said he would like to stay in Kansas City, $8MM would be too much for a small market team with bullpen depth to spend on a recovering reliever. Perhaps the sides can agree to a one-year contract with incentives and a low-base salary.

Though the Royals out-scored just two American League teams in 2012, their offense doesn't need as many changes as the pitching staff. In fact, the team's lineup seems to have breakout potential. Injuries limited Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez this past year, and both could play a full season in 2013. More production can also be expected from 22-year-old first baseman Eric Hosmer, who struggled at the plate despite lofty pre-season expectations. Plus, Myers, Baseball America's 2012 Minor League Player of the Year, could break camp with the club as its everyday right fielder (Jeff Francoeur could then be released or become a bench option for Ned Yost to use against lefties).

The pieces are in place at every position except one. Royals second basemen combined for a .256/.289/.359 batting line last year. Five players played the position ten times or more and four of those infielders — Irving Falu, Chris Getz, Johnny Giavotella and Tony Abreu — remain on the Royals' 40-man roster. Despite the array of internal options, I believe it'd make sense for the Royals to consider pursuing second base help this winter. The free agent market looks thin at second, but Moore could pursue a trade for a player such as Skip Schumaker, who's now being used off of the bench in St. Louis. The versatile Schumaker continues to get on base (.339 OBP this year), though he's a platoon bat who should be shielded from left-handed pitching. Trading for Schumaker would create depth without blocking 2010 first rounder Christian Colon.

The Royals' class of arbitration eligible players looks relatively modest this year, even if the club retains Hochevar. Getz, Blake Wood, and Brayan Pena project to have affordable salaries in 2013, so they're expected to return in supporting roles (Wood missed the 2012 season to undergo Tommy John surgery). Should Moore continue to pursue extensions for his young players, Mike Moustakas could be next in line. The pre-arbitration eligible third baseman hit 20 homers in 2012, his first full season.

The Royals have enough above-average players in place to surprise people in 2013. But major improvements don't happen by accident. One recent example, the Nationals, didn't contend until they made meaningful upgrades to their rotation. It's hard to imagine that Kansas City's path to contention will be much different.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

In Wood and Paulino, the Royals have a pair of promising pitchers who endured Tommy John surgery this year.  Both are worth retaining (Wood seems likely to garner Super Two status).  Despite a myriad of injuries, Getz worked his way into a starting role for the Royals at second base toward the end of his season.  I expect the team to keep him in the mix.

Hochevar, drafted first overall in 2006, has a 5.39 ERA through 771 big league innings, including a 5.73 mark this year.  If you're digging for a silver lining, the 29-year-old throws relatively hard, takes the ball every fifth day, and has exhibited skills suggesting an ERA closer to 4.20.  Given Hochevar's maddening flashes of brilliance, it seems the Royals are up for another go-round at our estimated $4.4MM salary.

The offensive promise once shown by Pena seems long gone.  Still, the 30-year-old Cuban wants to retire a Royal, and it won't require much of a raise to keep him around as Salvador Perez's backup for 2013.  Assuming everyone is retained in the Royals' group, we're projecting $10MM in salary for five arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Royals Rumors: Payroll, Sanchez, Lohse, Trades

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Royals owner David Glass recently said that the team is "committed to improving (their) starting pitching" while also indicating a willingness to operate at a financial loss to be competitive. Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star has the latest on the team…

  • “Our market is what it is,” said GM Dayton Moore. “We’re not going to have a payroll of $100MM. We know that going into it. We embrace who we are … We’ve got to stay consistent with our approach. We’re not going get crazy and go nuts in free agency.”
  • There are indications that the Royals have Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Lohse at the top of their free agent target list. Bringing Zack Greinke back for a second tour of duty is unlikely.
  • The team's list of secondary pitching targets is believed to include Ryan Dempster, Hiroki Kuroda, Shaun Marcum, Carlos Villanueva, and Carlos Zambrano. They will also monitor pitchers who could have club options declined, like Dan Haren and Ervin Santana.
  • “Absolutely … I think any pitcher would be fortunate to pitch here," said right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, an impending free agent the team would like to retain. They are unwilling to go beyond a two-year deal, however.
  • Moore acknowledged that there is a chance of working out a new contract with Guthrie during the exclusive negotiating window prior to free agency.
  • “I wouldn’t say anybody is untouchable,” said Moore with regards to potential trade talks. “You go into any discussion with an open mind. That being said, there are certain positions on the diamond that are very difficult to replace …  You don’t want to compromise in one area just to get strong in another area.”
  • Dutton estimates that the Royals could have $20-23MM to spend this winter while keeping the current roster intact.

Minor Moves: 28 Players Elect Free Agency

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A total of 28 players — all with big league time under their belts — recently elected free agency after finishing the year in Triple-A. Here is the full list, courtesy of the International League and Pacific Coast League transaction pages…

Royals Expected To Buy Out Soria, Explore New Deal

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The Royals are expected to decline their $8MM team option on Joakim Soria for the 2013 season and instead buy the closer out for $750K, reports Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.  Despite the buyout, the Royals are interested in bringing Soria back and "both sides have expressed interest in working out a new deal."

Soria has just begun throwing for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March, the second time that he has undergone the procedure in his career.  The right-hander was looking to rebound after a somewhat disappointing 2011 season by his standards, posting a 4.03 ERA with career-worsts in H/9 (9.0) and HR/9 (1.0) over 60 1/3 innings.  The Royals also held an $8.75MM club option on Soria for the 2014 season.

A new contract with Soria would be the best-case scenario for Kansas City, as while Soria is still too valuable a commodity to let walk for nothing, $8MM is a large chunk of payroll to tie up in a closer coming off a second Tommy John surgery.  Any deal that Soria signs this winter will be short-term and modestly-priced given his injury history, though Soria's track record would definitely earn him a lot of interest if he reaches free agency.

Minor Moves: Juan Gutierrez

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We'll keep track of any minor transactions throughout the day right here…

  • The Royals have re-signed Juan Gutierrez according to Baseball America's Matt Eddy. The 29-year-old right-hander pitched to a 4.79 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 167 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks from 2007-2011 while briefly serving as their closer. Gutierrez posted a 10.45 ERA in 20 2/3 minor league innings this year while battling injury. Kansas City originally signed him last December.

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Royals To Seek Rotation Help

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Royals owner David Glass wants his team’s starting rotation to improve in 2013, and he’s prepared to spend if that’s what it takes to upgrade the Kansas City pitching staff. Glass told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star that the starting rotation will get better in 2013.

“What I’ve always said is when we get to the point where we’re competitive,” Glass said, “we’ll do what we have to do to improve our position. Yes, we’ll do what we need to do. We are committed to improving our starting pitching.

Glass said the Royals will contend if they can upgrade their rotation. The bullpen and position players “stack it up against anybody” in the American League Central in Glass’ estimation. The owner indicated a willingness to operate at a loss from a financial standpoint if necessary.

Royals starters have combined for a 4.98 ERA (26th in MLB) in 833 2/3 innings (28th in MLB). Jeremy Guthrie hits free agency this offseason, but Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy and Jake Odorizzi are among Kansas City's internal options for 2013. Glass has yet to create a list off offseason targets with general manager Dayton Moore, Dutton reports.

Olney On Price, Andrus, Leyland

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Some talent evaluators believe Rays left-hander David Price could be traded this winter, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. Here’s the latest from Olney, who runs down potential suitors for Price in his latest column…

  • Price’s trade value will never be higher than it will be this winter, Olney writes. However, the left-hander’s salary will rise considerably from $4.35MM following his Cy Young-caliber 2012 season. This means the budget-conscious Rays will probably decide to part with Price at some point between now and when he hits free agency after the 2015 season. “There will be a day when the Rays trade him,” Olney writes. 
  • Tampa Bay could seek up-the-middle players for Price, who has extraordinary trade value as a controllable top-of-the-rotation left-hander.
  • There’s a wide expectation that the Rangers will trade Elvis Andrus this winter. But Andrus isn’t a great fit for the Rays given his salary and service time, so they’d presumably ask about shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar in talks for Price.
  • It’s hard to imagine the Royals obtaining Price from the Rays without giving up Wil Myers, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer, Olney writes.
  • Though the Tigers aren’t a strong defensive team their pitchers haven’t complained publicly about the glovework behind them. Olney credits Detroit’s player and manager Jim Leyland for this display of support.
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