The Financial Implications Of Hosmer’s Promotion
Eric Hosmer is hitting like someone who deserves to play in the Major Leagues. You don't put up a .439/.525/.582 line as a 21-year-old at Triple-A unless you're pretty talented, so the Royals are rewarding Hosmer’s ability and performance with a spot on the big league roster.
Not only does the decision make a difference for the current Royals team, it has implications for the future, since Hosmer may now go to arbitration four times, instead of the usual three. An extra year of arbitration could cost the Royals millions, but GM Dayton Moore told ESPN.com's Buster Olney that "right now, he helps us put the best team on the field that we can."
Here’s a detailed breakdown of what Hosmer’s callup means for future Kansas City teams:
The current outlook:
- Service time after 2011 – 0 years, 146 days
- Number of arbitration years – 3 or 4
- Additional earnings through arbitration – four years of arbitration could mean $5-15MM in additional earnings
- Hits free agency – after 2017
What an early June callup would have meant:
- Service time after 2011 – 0 years, 116 days
- Number of arbitration years – 3
- Additional earnings through arbitration – none
- Hits free agency – after 2017
Hosmer will pick up 146 days of service time this year if he’s not optioned back to the minors. Recent history suggests that will be enough for super two status after the 2013 season, assuming he picks up full years of service time in ’12 and ’13.
However, there’s no guarantee that the Royals will be stuck paying the former third overall selection for an extra year of arbitration. Early projections for the upcoming super two cutoff place the minimum at two years and 146 days, a couple of weeks more than usual.
Every year is different and it’s far too early to predict how much service time players will need to qualify as super twos after 2013, but it’s possible that two years and 146 days (Hosmer’s pace) won’t be enough. It’s also possible that the Royals will option Hosmer to the minor leagues, where he wouldn’t collect MLB service time.
Though there’s now a distinct possibility that the Royals will go to arbitration four times with Hosmer and pay him millions extra in the process, too many variables – possible demotions, unknown cutoff dates, the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement – exist for anyone to say with certainty that Moore made a poor financial decision by calling on the top prospect when he did.
Olney On Trades, Hosmer, Pineda
Here’s some welcome news for those of us who enjoy trades: executives tell ESPN.com’s Buster Olney that trade talk has started between teams. At this point, GMs are checking in with one another about possible needs and real trade talk probably won’t begin for another month. Here’s the latest from Olney:
- Royals GM Dayton Moore says first base prospect Eric Hosmer accelerated his own timetable by hitting .439/.525/.582 at Triple-A. Instead of keeping Hosmer in the minors for another month or so to prevent him from going to arbitration four times, the Royals called him up as soon as he appeared to be ready.
- ”Right now, he helps us put the best team on the field that we can," Moore told Olney.
- The Royals had expected to call Hosmer up after about 250 minor league plate appearances, but he’s in the majors after 118 trips to the plate for Omaha.
- Michael Pineda’s strong pitching is convincing scouts and executives that the Mariners should hold onto Felix Hernandez and look to contend before King Felix’s contract expires after the 2014 season.
Royals Notes: Hosmer, Arguelles
The Royals defeated the Orioles this afternoon to earn their fifth victory in their last six games. The big headline of the day for Kansas City, however, has to do with a certain minor league call-up…
- The Royals announced that Eric Hosmer has been called up to the big leagues to replace Kila Ka'aihue at first base. Hosmer was the third overall pick of the 2008 amateur draft and was rated by Baseball America as the eighth-best prospect in the game before this season. He has a career .886 OPS in the minors, and had a superb .439/.525/.582 line in 118 plate appearances for Triple-A Omaha this season.
- MLB.com's Dick Kaegel says the club wanted Hosmer to have around 250 Triple-A at-bats before coming to the majors, but it's interesting that K.C. pulled the trigger now and not next month. The early call-up means that Hosmer is likely to pick up enough service time to become a Super Two player, meaning he'll earn an extra year of salary arbitration. This, of course, depends on if the Super Two rules aren't changed in the next collective bargaining agreement.
- Noel Arguelles is pitching well in his first month of pro baseball, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star.
- You can follow all the latest Kansas City news on MLBTR's Royals-centric Facebook page, RSS and Twitter feeds.
Draft Notes: Royals, Hultzen, Red Sox
It takes a while for draft picks – even highly-touted ones – to make an impact in the Major Leagues. For example, only a handful of 2009 first round selections have made it to the majors so far (Stephen Strasburg, Mike Minor, Drew Storen, Aaron Crow, Mike Leake and Alex White). That won't stop us from anticipating the next generation of MLB stars and looking ahead to this June's draft…
- Earlier today, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes pointed out a potential hidden gem for the draft: Montana high school outfielder Ben Roberts (Twitter link).
- Most scouts assume that the Royals will take local high school standout Bubba Starling if he's available when they select fifth overall, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter).
- Starling, Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen or UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer could be selected within the first two picks of this year's draft, according to Jason A. Churchill of ESPN.com.
- Meanwhile, Texas right-hander Taylor Jungmann has seen his stock rise recently, while Connecticut right-hander Matt Barnes has seen his stock fall, according to Churchill.
- The Red Sox are showing interest in high school catcher Tyler Marlette, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Marlette is a defensive backstop who could be selected within the first two rounds of the draft.
AL Central Notes: Indians, Royals, Liriano
The Indians weren't supposed to be sitting atop the AL Central standings a month into the season and the Twins weren't supposed to be in the cellar. Here are some links from the AL Central, including the latest reaction to a surprising April…
- Everyone's wondering if the Indians are for real and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs provided an answer today: they aren't as good as they've seemed (19-8), but their offense should keep them in the race for much of the season, even if their pitching regresses, as expected.
- Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com points out that the Indians now have a chance. "Nobody predicted they'd have it, and few seem to think they can sustain it. But with each win comes a little more belief."
- MLB.com's Dick Kaegel explains that the Royals are taking advantage of technology to approach advance scouting in a new way.
- Removing Francisco Liriano from the rotation may not be the worst decision the last-place Twins could make, writes Chris Cwik of FanGraphs.
- White Sox GM Kenny Williams told MLB.com's Scott Merkin that he isn't looking to blame anyone for his team's 10-19 start.
Trade Candidate: Wilson Betemit
Inevitably, some teams will be interested in third base help this summer. The Giants, Cardinals and Marlins have question marks at the hot corner now and other teams will presumably be looking for help at third this June, July and August. It's just a question of which teams are interested and which players are available.
As executives look around the league for alternatives to Michael Young ($45MM remaining on his contract) and Chone Figgins ($15.5MM remaining on his contract), their eyes may settle on a player who has a .305/.381/.504 line since the beginning of the 2010 season and earns just $1MM in 2011: Wilson Betemit of the Kansas City Royals.
A former top prospect turned journeyman, the 29-year-old Betemit is already playing for his fifth MLB team. He hit .297/.378/.511 with 13 homers in 315 plate appearances last year and has followed that up with a .333/.391/.480 showing so far in 2011. Betemit's numbers are flashy if not sustainable (.361 BABIP in '10, .429 BABIP in '11) and the available alternatives don't figure to be overwhelming.
Of course Royals GM Dayton Moore would have to have interest in trading Betemit for anything to happen. Now 15-13, the Royals are in second place in the AL Central behind only the surprising Cleveland Indians. If they continue winning more games than they lose, the Royals may not be interested in selling at all.
But if top third base prospect Mike Moustakas picks up the pace in Triple-A (his OPS now sits at .697) the Royals could decide to make Betemit available and, after they make a trade, promote Moustakas. Betemit is a free agent after 2011 and, unlike Moustakas, he isn't a long-term solution for K.C. Perhaps the Royals could flip him for a player who will contribute to their next great team.
Betemit's hot hitting, salary and versatility (he has MLB experience at short, first, second, left and right) suggest other teams are likely to call Moore later this summer. The Royals could stay hot, or Moustakas could stay cold, but it won't surprise many people if Betemit becomes trade bait within a few months.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
2012 Vesting Options Update
It's the final day of the month, so let's check the status of the various vesting options around the league…
- Bobby Abreu, Angels: $9MM option vests with 433 plate appearances. Abreu is more than a quarter of the way there already; he has 116 PA after today's game.
- Rafael Furcal, Dodgers: $12MM option vests with 600 plate appearances. Furcal came to the plate 28 times before breaking his thumb. He's going to miss another three to five weeks, so he's unlikely to see the option vest.
- Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM option vests with 190 innings pitched. Garland started the year on the disabed list and has thrown just 20 innings so far. He should still get there if he stays healthy.
- Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: $17.5MM option vests with 55 games finished and if doctors declare him healthy at the end of the season. K-Rod has finished eight games so far, but you have to think the club will use him in a way to prevent the option from vesting.
- Koji Uehara, Orioles: $4MM option vests with either 55 appearances or 25 games finished. Uehara has appeared in eight games and finished four, putting him on pace for 54 and 27, respectively.
- Arthur Rhodes, Rangers: $4MM option vests with 62 appearances and if he's not on the disabled list at the end of the season. He's appeared in eight games so far, putting him on pace for 50. Injuries to the some of his bullpen mates could increase Rhodes' workload though.
- Joakim Soria, Royals: $6MM option vests with 55 appearances. He's already appeared in 12 games and is on pace for 75.
- Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM option vests with 65 games; increases to $3.25MM with 70 games. Wheeler has appeared in just eight games so far, so he'll have to start seeing more time for the option to kick in.
Adam Wainwright's 2012 ($9MM) and 2013 ($12MM) options will not vest because he will finish the season on the disabled list. Aramis Ramirez's option depends on MVP Award finishes and whether or not he's traded, not plate appearances or another counting milestone.
Mark Buehrle is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season and although he doesn't have a traditional option in his contract, he gets an extra year at $15MM tacked onto his current deal if he's traded at some point this season.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Dead Money: Paying Players To Play Elsewhere
Eating money in trades or by releasing players is far from an ideal business practice, but sometimes it's a necessary evil. The Mets believe they are better off paying Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo a combined $18MM not to be on their team this year, and released the two just last month. David Wharton of The Los Angeles Times wrote about the concept of "dead money" today, speaking to Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, sports economist J.C. Bradbury, and Scott Boras.
With some help from Cot's Baseball Contracts, let's look at the teams that are paying players to be anywhere but on their roster this season…
- Angels: Gary Matthews Jr. ($11.4MM)
- Astros: Roy Oswalt ($7MM)
- Blue Jays: Vernon Wells ($5MM)
- Cubs: Carlos Silva ($7.25MM, plus $2MM in 2012)
- Diamondbacks: Chris Snyder ($3MM)
- Dodgers: Manny Ramirez ($8.33MM per year through 2013), Andruw Jones ($3.2MM per year through 2014), Juan Pierre ($3.5MM)
- Mariners: Carlos Silva ($5.5MM), Yuniesky Betancourt ($1MM), Josh Wilson ($179K)
- Mets: Oliver Perez ($4MM), Luis Castillo ($6MM), Gary Matthews Jr. ($1MM)
- Rockies: Manny Corpas ($3.55MM, $250K in 2012)
- Royals: Yuniesky Betancourt ($2MM)
- Twins: Brendan Harris ($500K)
- White Sox: Scott Linebrink ($3.5MM)
This doesn't include money the Braves owe Kenshin Kawakami ($7.4MM) or the Yankees owe Kei Igawa ($4MM). Both Japanese imports remain in the organization, but they've since been banished to the minor leagues. It also doesn't include all the money the Mets famously owe Bobby Bonilla for the next two decades.
Yuniesky Betancourt is the only player collecting paychecks from three different big league teams at the moment, but Carlos Silva could join him if he's called up by the Yankees. Gary Matthews Jr. could also be in that mix if he catches on somewhere this summer.
Quick Hits: Mets, Draft Prospects, Royals, Manny
Carlos Santana's first career grand slam couldn't have come at a better time for the Indians. The young catcher hit a walkoff slam to lead Cleveland to a 9-5 win over Detroit on Friday night. Here's some news from around the majors…
- The Mets are willing to give "veto power over a limited number of financial decisions" to a new minority owner, reports Josh Kosman and Lenn Robbins of the New York Post, including such decisions as large player contracts and overall payroll size. The Wilpons and Saul Katz "will treat their new partner as a real partner," one source tells Kosman and Robbins.
- ESPN's Keith Law reveals his latest ranking of the top 50 draft prospects. Law calls this draft a "huge pitching bonanza," but lacking in position players.
- Also from Law, via Twitter, the Cubs are hoping center fielder Bubba Starling is still available when they make their first-round (9th overall) choice.
- Many of the Royals' top prospects are off to a great start in the minors, but GM Dayton Moore doesn't plan to bring any of these young stars up to the Major League level anytime soon, reports MLB.com's Dick Kaegel.
- Manny Ramirez hints to ESPNDeportes' Jorge Arangure about a return to baseball — in the Dominican winter league, that is.
- In a live chat with fans, ESPN's Jayson Stark discusses such topics as Kevin Millwood's future with the Yankees, Bryce Harper's progress and the Blue Jays' chances of signing Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder as a free agent this winter.
- David Wharton of the Los Angeles Times looks at some of the more notable "dead money" teams are still paying to players long since departed from their rosters or the game itself.
- Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com writes about Mike Quade's unlikely path to becoming the Cubs' manager.
AL Central Notes: Quentin, Royals, White, Adam Miller
Here's some news from the only division in baseball whose members are all former World Series champions…
- Carlos Quentin attributes his strong start to learning how to leave the game at the ballpark and how to cope with failure, writes Tim Kurkjian for ESPN.com.
- The Royals will look within their organization for bullpen help, as Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports the club doesn't want to risk losing anyone from their current 40-man roster.
- "Kansas City baseball fans have grown sick of money," writes SI's Joe Posnanski, noting that fans seem to appreciate how the Royals are spending on their minor league system rather than on stop-gap veterans. Posnanski points out that K.C.'s league-low payroll could (or should) be even lower given the Royals are paying Kyle Davies and Jason Kendall a combined $6.95MM in 2011.
- Right-hander Alex White, the Indians' first-round pick (15th overall) in the 2009 amateur draft, will make his Major League debut on Saturday. The Tribe will have to make room for White on the 40-man roster — Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks the club could move one of their several infielders, while speculates that right-hander Jess Todd could be the odd man out.
- Also from Castrovince, right-hander Adam Miller has been cleared to pitch for the Indians' Class A affiliate. Miller was picked 31st overall by Cleveland in the 2003 amateur draft, but hasn't pitched since 2008 due to four surgeries on his right middle finger. Miller, 26, has a 3.51 ERA, 8.7 K/9 rate and a 3.19 K/BB ratio in 104 minor league appearances (94 of them starts).