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Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA

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Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332

  • Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350

  • Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343

  • The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.

Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353

  • There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337

  • Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).

Jonathan Lucroy To Undergo Surgery, Expected To Miss Three Weeks

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Angels catcher Jonathan Lucroy will undergo a brief procedure on Tuesday to mend his nasal fracture, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com adds on Twitter that manager Brad Ausmus expects his catcher to miss about three weeks due to the operation.

Lucroy bore the brunt of a violent collision at home plate with Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick last week, suffering a concussion and a broken nose as a result. He’s currently on the 7-day injured list as a result of the concussion. As Hoornstra notes, Lucroy will be on the shelf for a few days following the procedure to repair his nose, but plans to resume baseball activities within the week following the surgery.

Assuming everything goes according to plan, that timetable would put the 33-year-old on track to suit up for the Angels sometime in early August. To be sure, the club will want to make sure that there are no lingering effects that could be aggravated by Lucroy’s return to the field, especially at such a rigorous position where concussions are not uncommon.

Lucroy’s Los Angeles tenure has been a frustrating one, with unexceptional performance being interrupted by a gruesome injury. Nonetheless, a late season return could be pivotal for a team clinging desperately to postseason aspirations; at 47-46, the Halos will have to overcome several teams, including division rivals in Texas and Oakland if they are to make their way into a Wild Card spot.

Lucroy Not Expecting To Be Sidelined For "Too Long"

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  • Of course, no team has had a more eventful or emotional season thus far than the Angels. The tragic death of Tyler Skaggs–to say nothing of Friday night’s combined no-hitter dedicated to his memory–would seem to overshadow any baseball-related news story in a given season. However, for a moment, last Sunday’s homeplate collision between Jake Marisnick and Jonathan Lucroy was perhaps the most hot-button topic in sports. “The last thing I remember, I was kind of inching my way up the line and reaching for the baseball,” Lucroy said in a report by the Los Angeles Times’ Mike DiGiovanna. “The first thing I remember after that is when they put me on the golf cart. He knocked me out.” The report goes on to mention that Marisnick–who is appealing a two-game suspension in connection with the collision–texted an apology to Lucroy last week. Lucroy, fortunately, doesn’t expect to be sidelined by his resultant injuries for “too long.”

Angels Activate Matt Harvey, Designate Jarrett Parker

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The Angels have activated right-hander Matt Harvey from the injured list and designated outfielder Jarrett Parker for assignment, the team announced.

The 30-year-old Harvey is returning after missing almost two months because of an upper back strain. Signed to a one-year, $11MM contract in the offseason, the ex-Met and Red started this season with a nightmarish 7.50 ERA/6.22 FIP and 6.56 K/9 against 3.94 BB/9 in 48 innings before going on the IL.

Harvey will start for the Angels on Saturday against the Mariners, though he’ll have an extraordinarily difficult act to follow. The Angels’ pitchers, honoring fallen left-hander Tyler Skaggs, threw a combined no-hitter versus the Mariners on Friday in what will go down as one of the greatest team efforts in baseball history.

Parker, 30, didn’t last long on the Angels’ 40-man roster. They selected the former Giant’s contract from Triple-A Salt Lake on July 3, but Parker only collected 15 plate appearances as a Halo before losing his spot. Parker has slashed an outstanding .296/.424/.604 with 19 home runs in 283 PA with Salt Lake this year, however. Furthermore, although Parker had to settle for a minor league contract with the Angels last winter, he owns a solid .249/.330/.441 line with a 107 wRC+ and 15 home runs in 397 trips to the plate in the majors. Most of Parker’s success in the bigs occurred from 2015-16, though.

Zack Cozart To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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6:05pm: GM Billy Eppler says that Cozart will not return to action this year, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group was among those to tweet. The club is reinstating backstop Kevan Smith from the IL to take the place of injured catcher Jonathan Lucroy.

4:55pm: The Angels announced today that infielder Zack Cozart will undergo an “arthroscopic debridement of his left shoulder.” He has been shifted to the 60-day injured list, making roster space for today’s earlier transactions.

It’s not clear at the moment just what the expectations are moving forward for Cozart, whose tenure in Los Angeles has been an unmitigated disaster. There is no indication at present whether he will attempt to return later this season, though there does not appear to be much cause for optimism at this point.

Cozart had already been out for about a month when he revealed that his attempt to return without surgery had stalled out. After a few more weeks of waiting, he’ll now go under the knife. His three-year, $38MM contract expires at the end of the 2020 campaign.

When they signed him, the Halos hoped that Cozart would team with Andrelton Simmons on the left side of the infield to form an outstanding defensive and solid offensive pairing. Instead, Cozart has struggled to stay on the field and performed miserably when he has been able to suit up. The 33-year-old owns a meager .190/.261/.296 batting line in his 360 plate appearances in Anaheim.

Angels Acquire Adam McCreery, Josh Thole From Dodgers

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The Angels have added a pair of players out of the break, acquiring lefty Adam McCreery and catcher Josh Thole from the Dodgers in exchange for cash considerations.

The move will help bolster the Halos’ depth. It’ll also clear needed 40-man roster space for their cross-town rivals. The Dodgers activated outfielder A.J. Pollock today from the 60-day injured list. He’ll be joined by Corey Seager and David Freese in returning to the active roster.

Acquired last November, McCreery had yet to appear at the MLB level with the Dodgers but did hold a 40-man spot. In 35 2/3 upper-minors innings this season, he carries a 4.04 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9. The southpaw briefly cracked the majors last year with Atlanta but has yet to receive a full opportunity — due in no small part to the fact that he has not yet conquered persistent walk problems.

The 30-year-old Thole was once a consistent presence in the majors, functioning mostly as a reserve backstop with the Mets and Blue Jays from 2009 through 2016. He hasn’t cracked the bigs since, however, and has mostly carried marginal offensive numbers at Triple-A that befit his lifetime .242/.313/.306 slash through 1,499 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Jake Marisnick Receives Two-Game Suspension

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1:29pm: Marisnick is appealing the suspension, according to MLBPA communications director Chris Dahl (hat tip to Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26).

12:28pm: Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick has been suspended for two games and fined an undisclosed amount as a result of the home-plate collision that fractured Jonathan Lucroy’s nose and concussed the Halos’ catcher, the league announced Thursday. If Marisnick does not appeal the punishment, he’ll begin serving it tonight.

“After thoroughly reviewing the play from all angles, I have concluded that Jake’s actions warrant discipline,” MLB chief baseball officer Joe Torre said in a statement accompanying the announcement. “While I do not believe that Jake intended to injure Jonathan, the contact he initiated in his attempt to score violated Official Baseball Rule 6.01(i), which is designed to protect catchers from precisely this type of collision.”

The play in question (video link) saw Marisnick attempt to score on a flyout to Kole Calhoun. While the impact of the collision led Lucroy to drop the throw from right field, Marisnick was still ruled out due the collision. Lucroy appeared to have left a lane open, though Marisnick explained on Twitter after the incident that he misjudged the situation in making a split-second decision:

“Through my eyes I thought the play was going to end up on the outside of the plate,” Marisnick tweeted. “I made a split second decision at full speed to slide head first on the inside part of the plate. That decision got another player hurt and I feel awful. I hope nothing but the best for [Jonathan Lucroy].”

The suspension would cost Marisnick roughly $24K of this season’s $2.212MM salary (in addition to the fine). Through 72 games and 194 plate appearances this season, Marisnick is hitting .250/.309/.466 with eight home runs, 12 doubles, a triple and six steals.

Jonathan Lucroy Diagnosed With Concussion, Broken Nose

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TODAY: Lucroy was diagnosed with a concussion and fractured nose, per a team announcement. It is not known at this point approximately how much time he will miss.

The veteran backstop is slated to visit with an ENT physician after the swelling has gone down, at which time perhaps more will be known. That visit is not expected to take place until after All-Star break.

YESTERDAY: Angels catcher Jonathan Lucroy was taken out of today’s game after a scary-looking collision at home plate with the Astros’ Jake Marisnick.  In the eighth inning of a tied 10-10 game, Marisnick attempted to score from third on a fly ball, and ran directly into Lucroy as the catcher had to move slightly up the line to pursue the throw.  (Marisnick was called out for an illegal collision.)  Lucroy had a bloody nose and attempted to get up after the play, though team trainers convinced him to stay down for examination.

Lucroy was taken to hospital for a CT scan, as per an Angels team announcement, and the catcher will be examined for a possible nose fracture and a possible concussion.  More will be known after Lucroy is seen by doctors, though even with the All-Star break providing four days of recovery time, it would seem likely that Lucroy will face an injured list placement.

Lucroy was 2-for-4 with a double and a triple in the game, bringing his season total to .237/.307/.364 over 264 plate appearances.  Signed to a one-year contract worth $3.35MM guaranteed over the offseason, Lucroy is in his third straight season of below-average offensive production after several years as one of baseball’s best-hitting catchers earlier in the decade.  As per Baseball Prospectus, he is also near the bottom of the league in both pitch-framing and blocking numbers in 2019.

Kevan Smith has seen more time behind the plate for Los Angeles in the wake of Lucroy’s struggles, though Smith is currently on the injured list himself recovering from a hand strain.  If both Lucroy and Smith are sidelined following the All-Star break, Dustin Garneau becomes the Halos’ top choice behind the plate, with Jose Briceno on the 40-man roster down at Triple-A.  It remains to be seen if the 45-46 Angels will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, though catching could potentially be a target area if the club does decide to add pieces to make a wild card run.

AL West Notes: Astros, Pence, Harvey, Mariners

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The Astros will have a difficult decision to make after the All-Star break, when they will need to find a fifth starter to join the current group. As The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan writes (subscription required), Houston has gotten by with only four starters lately, thanks to a schedule that has afforded the team some well-timed off days. Corbin Martin would ideally be the guy to step up, but his season was cut short by an elbow injury. As Kaplan notes, the Astros are widely expected to target starting pitching at the trade deadline, so whoever is chosen will only need to hold down the fort for the next few weeks. With the addition of a fifth starter, of course, someone will lose their roster spot, and that may just be Tony Kemp. Kemp has seen his role diminish of late, receiving only sparing playing time while fellow bench bats Myles Straw and Tyler White fill more essential spots. Notably, Kemp is out of options, meaning that he will need to clear waivers if the Astros would like to demote him while keeping him in the organization.

  • It doesn’t look like Rangers designated hitter Hunter Pence will be ready to return to game action immediately following the All-Star break, according to TR Sullivan of MLB.com. As Sullivan notes, Pence, who is recovering from a right groin strain, has yet to get to back to running full speed. Pence hasn’t appeared in a game for the Rangers since the middle of June, when he landed on the injured list. A minor-league signing last winter, Pence has been a revelation for Texas, emerging as a force in the middle of the lineup. His efforts earned him a spot on the All-Star roster, though he won’t be able to participate thanks to the injury.
  • After the break, the Angels expect to welcome Matt Harvey back to the starting rotation, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group. On Sunday, he made a start for Triple-A Salt Lake, striking out seven batters in 3 1/3 innings of work. An upper back strain has prevented the veteran from pitching in the Majors since late May. When he has pitched for the Halos, though, the results have not been good: he’s worked to an unsightly 7.50 ERA in 10 starts and has thus far failed to live up to the $11MM contract he received in the offseason. Of course, he’ll have the rest of the season to reverse that, and he certainly has the talent to boost the playoff-hopeful Angels into the Wild Card conversation.
  • Mariners right-handed pitcher Dan Altavilla will avoid Tommy John surgery after receiving the results from an MRI, tweets Greg Johns of MLB.com. That MRI showed no damage to Altavilla’s UCL, though he did endure a flexor strain in his elbow. To be sure, there’s nothing encouraging about elbow injuries, but the silver lining is that Altavilla won’t need to undergo Tommy John. Altavilla landed on the injured list after he “felt something in his forearm” while pitching on Friday.

Injured Angels’ Pitchers Making Progress

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The Angels are close to welcoming back a pair of starting pitchers, as Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was among those to cover (Twitter links here). Matt Harvey is slated to rejoin the rotation out of the All-Star break, while JC Ramirez appears to be nearing activation as well after a typically lengthy Tommy John rehab process. Meanwhile, reliever and fellow Tommy John patient Keynan Middleton began a rehab assignment Friday.

Harvey went to the injured list with an upper back strain May 25 and then suffered a setback June 10, continuing a nightmarish season. The Angels took a one-year, $11MM flier on Harvey in free agency, but the decision has emphatically gone against the team thus far. Once an ace with the Mets, Harvey joined the Angels after finishing 2018 in respectable fashion with the Reds. In his first two months as an Angel, though, the 30-year-old performed like one of the majors’ worst starters, notching a  7.50 ERA/6.11 FIP with 6.56 K/9 against 3.94 BB/9 across 48 frames.

Ramirez, also 30, hasn’t taken the mound for the Angels since going under the knife last April. The righty managed effective results in 142 1/3 innings as a starter for the Angels in 2017, when he put up a 4.11 ERA (with a 4.67 FIP), 6.45 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 51.4 percent groundball rate. A 95.5 mph fastball helped Ramirez achieve that success, though Triple-A Salt Lake broadcaster Steve Klauke tweeted last week that the hurler’s velocity has been far less imposing during his rehab work. That was again the case Friday, per Klauke, who reports Ramirez hovered around 88 to 92 mph while tossing six innings of three-run ball.

Sadly for the Angels, the upcoming returns of Harvey and Ramirez have taken on added importance in light of starter Tyler Skaggs’ passing this week. At 45-44 and 4 1/2 games out of playoff position, the club has an outside chance at earning a wild-card spot. But the Angels will need more from a starting staff which is trying its best to carry on under terrible circumstances. None of the Angels’ current options have posted exemplary production to this point, though there’s plenty of promise in the form of Andrew Heaney and the young tandem of Griffin Canning and Jose Suarez.

Angels starters have handed off to a bullpen which has received quality late-game production from Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles and Cam Bedrosian. When Middleton comes back, the 25-year-old will add another high-octane arm to the group. With help from a 96 mph heater, the right-handed Middleton logged a 3.43 ERA/4.24 FIP with 9.36 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 76 innings from 2017-18. He underwent surgery last May.

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