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Starting Pitching Notes: Scherzer, Nats, Miller, Tanaka

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The Max Scherzer trade rumors don't make much sense to Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, who argues that a Tigers club built to win in 2014 can't afford to move an ace pitcher unless another team makes "an incredibly loony price" in a trade.  The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore hears from a source who flatly denies that Scherzer will be dealt, and Kilgore wonders if the Tigers' alleged willingness to trade may hint at concerns about Scherzer's future performance.

Here are some items about notable arms that could be had via trade or free agency this offseason…

  • The Nationals have the minor league depth to acquire the likes of Scherzer or David Price, Kilgore writes.  It could be more likely that the Nats pursue a younger pitcher who is under control for more years, a la the team's deal for Gio Gonzalez. 
  • Shelby Miller is "an under-the-radar potential [trade] target," a baseball official opines to Kilgore.  Miller pitched just one postseason inning for the Cardinals due to concerns that he had a tired arm, though Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer notes that were rumors that Miller was really being saved for a possible trade this winter.  I'm not sure if I believe that theory; you'd think the Cards would've had all healthy arms on deck in pursuit of a World Series.
  • The Cubs are interested in Masahiro Tanaka, GM Jed Hoyer told David Kaplan on WGN Radio's The David Kaplan Show (Twitter link).  "He's going to help somebody and we will be in on him," Hoyer said.
  • Matt Sosnick, Josh Johnson's agent, says he has talked to "nearly every team" about his client, including the Rangers, ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett reports.  The Rangers appeal to Johnson due to their winning ways because he lives in nearby Oklahoma, though since Sosnick says Johnson would prefer "at least a pitching-neutral ballpark," Rangers Ballpark might be a hindrance.
  • The Angels' signing of starter Chris Volstad could spell trouble for starters Jerome Williams and Tommy Hanson, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles TImes. Volstad is cheap and young, and DiGiovanna says that the club may not see much difference between him and the club's pricier, pre-existing options. In his breakdown of the Halos' arbitration-eligible players, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes calls Hanson a definite non-tender candidate, and says Williams could also be shown the door.
  • ESPN's Jim Bowden speculates about six possible David Price trades (ESPN Insider subscription required).

MLBTR's Jeff Todd also contributed to this post

Managerial/Coaching Links: Cubs, Tigers, Eckstein

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The Cubs will announce their manager tomorrow, according to the MLB Network's Peter Gammons, and the front-runner is still Padres bench coach Rick Renteria. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times agrees that the hiring will happen soon, adding that no more candidates will interview and Renteria looks to be their man. The Cubs are the last remaining team with a managerial vacancy. Here are some more field-staff-related notes for your Wednesday reading…

  • The Tigers announced today that Jeff Jones will return as the club's pitching coach on a two-year deal. Detroit also added Astros first base coach Dave Clark to its staff on a two-year deal. Clark will serve as the team's third base coach and outfield instructor. He served as Houston's third base coach from 2009-12.
  • Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times writes that the Angels are expected to add former Nationals hitting coach Rick Eckstein (the brother of David Eckstein) to their coaching staff within the week (the Eckstein note is about halfway down the article). Eckstein will serve as a pregame coach, advance scout and liaison to the minor leagues, according to DiGiovanna.
  • The more familiar Eckstein (David) is expected to be involved with the Angels organization again in 2014, DiGiovanna reports in a separate piece. David was a special instructor in 2013 Spring Training and is expected to have an increased role in 2014, though nothing has been finalized at this point.
  • Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweets that the Mariners were very impressed with Gary DiSarcina when he interviewed for their managerial vacancy, but Lloyd McClendon was always the favorite for the job. DiSarcina has since accepted a job as the Angels' third base coach.

Five Teams Showing Early Interest In Grant Balfour

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Grant Balfour is expected to sign with a new team as a free agent this offseason after three excellent years with the A's — two of which came as the team's closer. According to the latest from Susan Slusser at the San Francisco Chronicle, the Yankees, Tigers, Rockies, Rays and Angels have all expressed interest in the hard-throwing Aussie.

Balfour, 36 in December, saved 62 games for the A's over the past two seasons as their primary ninth-inning option and has a sparkling 2.47 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 254 2/3 innings dating back to 2010. It's a buyer's market for closers this offseason, with Balfour, Joe Nathan, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Chris Perez, Jose Veras, Edward Mujica and Kevin Gregg among the free agents who saved at least 20 games this past season. Brian Wilson, who returned as a dominant setup man, figures to garner interest for ninth inning jobs as well.

Interest between the Tigers and Balfour will turn a few heads due to the fact that Balfour's signature shouting on the mound didn't sit well with Victor Martinez in the ALDS, leading to a benches-clearing confrontation. Still the Tigers figure to add at least one high-profile arm this winter after opening last season with no set closer and experiencing ugly results from a carousel of relievers until Benoit solidified the job.

Angels Sign Chris Volstad To Minor League Deal

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The Angels have signed right-hander Chris Volstad to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, according to MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez. Volstad is represented by Moye Sports Associates.

Volstad, 27, made six appearances with the Rockies' big league club this season but allowed runs in each of them, totaling a 10.80 ERA in 8 1/3 innings. He was considerably better at the Triple-A level, pitching to a 4.58 ERA in 127 2/3 innings, though his 4.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 ratios weren't exactly inspiring.

Originally selected by the Marlins with the No. 16 overall selection in the 2005 draft, Volstad thrice ranked on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect list, placing 97th prior to the 2006 season, 40th prior to the 2007 season and 58th prior to the 2008 season. Unfortunately for Volstad, he's never put things together at the Major League level. In 703 2/3 career innings between the Marlins, Cubs and Rockies, Volstad has a 4.94 ERA and a 442-to-248 K/BB ratio.

Angels Notes: DiSarcina, Vargas, Tanaka

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The Angels have hired former infielder Gary DiSarcina to be their new third base coach, a source told Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. DiSarcina, 45, spent his entire 12-year playing career in an Angels uniform, batting .258/.292/.341 in 1,086 games. He takes over for Dino Ebel, who was promoted to bench coach. Here's more on the Halos as the offseason gets underway…

  • The Angels would like to retain Jason Vargas, but they don't want to give him a three-year pact, writes Gonzalez. The Halos also don't want to approach an average annual value of $10MM for Vargas, who would slot as their fourth starter. As MLBTR's Zach Links explained in the Angels' Offseason Outlook, they'll be working with limited breathing room this winter as they try to steer clear of the luxury tax. Still, the team is currently prioritizing Vargas over other free agents, DiPoto tells Gonzalez.
  • Angels GM Jerry Dipoto confirmed that he has interest in Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Dipoto says that the club has scouted the right-hander "multiple times." Tanaka, who some executive believe will be more expensive than Yu Darvish, has already been connected to other big market clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Cafardo On Free Agency, Price, Nathan, Lackey

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Free agents are not allowed to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs until 11:01 pm (CT) Monday, but agent Scott Boras says his phone was ringing off the hook regarding Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew within hours of the Red Sox winning the World Series, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Yankees will be the most interesting team during free agency, according to Cafardo, but will be hamstrung until a decision is made on Alex Rodriguez's appeal. Cafardo also lists the Phillies, Tigers, Giants, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rangers as active participants in the free agent market. In other tidbits from his Sunday Baseball Notes column:

Free Agent Profile: Jason Vargas

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Looking for more stability in their rotation last offseason, the Angels dealt from their surplus of corner bats and sent Kendrys Morales to the Mariners in exchange for innings eater Jason Vargas. A freak injury cost Vargas about 50 or so innings of his season, but his final numbers look similar to what he's produced over the three previous years. He'll look to cash in on that consistency as a free agent.

Strengths/Pros

Vargas is an innings eater, and there's something to be said for free agents who can be expected to take the ball every fifth day. Vargas-JasonA freak blood clot that required surgery landed him on the shelf for nearly two months, but aside from that, Vargas hasn't been on the disabled list since 2008. He's had only one arm-related injury in his career — a minor offseason procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in October 2007.

Even though he missed nearly two months in 2013, Vargas still racked up 150 innings, and the missed time brought his yearly average down to a still-strong 190 innings dating back to 2010. Vargas has a 3.97 ERA in that time, thanks largely to his plus command (2.5 BB/9 in that stretch). His strikeout rate has steadily crept upward over the past four seasons as well.

Vargas pitches left-handed, but he doesn't have much of a platoon split. Over the past four seasons, lefties have hit .257/.306/.383 against him, and right-handers have a similar .253/.309/.419 batting line.

Vargas was a late bloomer and did some of his early work out of the bullpen. As such, he has just under 1,400 professional innings under his belt. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm for a 31-year-old, and he won't be attached to draft pick compensation, as the Angels don't figure to make him a qualifying offer due to luxury tax concerns.

Weaknesses/Cons

Vargas' strikeout rate may be on the rise, but even the career-best K/9 that he posted this season was a below-average 6.5. His fastball sits in the 87-88 mph range, so he's not going to overpower any hitters.

Vargas is a fly-ball pitcher that has benefited from pitching in pitchers parks such as Seattle's Safeco Field and Angels Stadium in Anaheim over the past four seasons. Vargas' 4.61 road ERA, 4.70 road FIP and 4.73 road xFIP point to the fact that he's benefited tremendously from those spacious environments. His home numbers — 3.39, 3.76 and 4.23, respectively — are much stronger and suggest that he's best-suited for a bigger park.

In particular, he struggles with homers on the road. Vargas has allowed just 48 homers in 497 home innings (0.87 HR/9) throughout his career, but he's yielded 77 big flies in 482 2/3 innings (1.43 HR/9).

Personal

Vargas is an excellent athlete that played three seasons at quarterback in high school football and is an avid golfer in his free time. His arrival with the Angels reunited him with college teammate Jered Weaver. Baseball runs in Vargas' family, as he is the second cousin of Randy Velarde, who enjoyed a 16-year career as an infielder with the Yankees, Angels and A's. Vargas is very active in charities and co-founded Estrella Youth Sports in Goodyear, Ariz. — a non-profit youth program that aims to develop positive role models through participation in sports.

Market

Vargas isn't an elite rotation piece, and teams that need top-of-the-rotation arms aren't likely to make him a prime target. He's a strong back-end starter and can slide into the middle of a rotation if needed, and plenty of teams will be looking for such arms. The Angels will likely make an effort to re-sign Vargas to a multiyear deal, and the Apple Valley, Calif. native is interested in a return. The Orioles showed some interest on the trade market this summer.

In addition to the O's and Angels, I'd expect contenders like the Royals, Indians and Pirates to show interest. Teams that didn't contend in 2013 but simply need reliable innings could show interest as well, with the Twins, Mariners, Brewers, Padres and Giants coming to mind.

Teams in smaller parks will likely be more hesitant regarding Vargas, but the Phillies, Yankees and Blue Jays are all looking for pitching help as well. Vargas and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports should have plenty of interested teams to negotiate with over the course of the winter.

Expected Contract

Vargas doesn't come with a ton of upside, but he's a consistent source of 200 or so innings at or slightly below the league average. Even if he's not an outstanding performer, durability pays on the open market. Vargas is younger than Jeremy Guthrie, and his four years prior to free agency are similar to Guthrie's in terms of innings pitched, ERA+, K/9 and BB/9. In terms of superficial stats, Vargas stacks up well against Ricky Nolasco over the past four years, though the latter has him dwarfed in terms of sabermetric stats. He's similar to Scott Feldman in terms of performance, but Vargas has a much more consistent track record.

Balelo could try to parlay his client's durability and consistency into a four-year contract, given his relative youth, but three years is more realistic for someone with Vargas' limited upside. He should be able to top Guthrie's contract but is likely to fall short of whatever amount Nolasco will receive.

I waffled between a three-year, $27MM deal and a three-year, $30MM deal for Vargas, so I'm splitting the difference and predicting a three-year, $28.5MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Angels, Astros

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The Mariners interviewed Dave Valle for their managerial opening this week, Ted Keith of SI.com reports. Valle played in ten seasons for the Mariners, primarily at catcher, but has no prior coaching experience. As Keith notes, teams appear to value prior managing experience, at least, less than they once did, with Mike Matheny, Robin Ventura, Bryan Price, Don Mattingly and John Farrell all winning jobs without prior managing experience in the Majors or the minors. Valle has recently worked in broadcasting. Here's more on the AL West.

  • The Angels aren't likely to extend a qualifying offer to free agent Jason Vargas, but they might sign him to a multiyear deal anyway, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports. Vargas would likely decline the Angels' qualifying offer, DiGiovanna says, but the Angels don't want to offer one because the $14.1MM commitment if Vargas were to accept would move them close to the $189MM luxury tax threshold.
  • The Angels' luxury-tax issues will likely mean they'll attempt to upgrade their rotation primarily through trades, explains Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. If they bring Vargas back, it would appear to be for less on a yearly basis than the $14.1MM qualifying offer. In the meantime, they'll hope to acquire young pitching by dealing players like Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar or Peter Bourjos. Doing so might also help them shed salary.
  • The Astros' payroll could rise to $50MM or $60MM next year, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. That doesn't sound like much, but it's a huge increase over the team's $13MM 2013 payroll. "If you add three or four key positions and bring in a couple of guys [from the Minor Leagues] that are ready, this team is pretty competitive pretty quickly with the starting pitching we've got," says owner Jim Crane. "We're deep in pitching." McTaggart writes that the Astros will look for bullpen help, but they could also in a power hitter (perhaps a corner outfielder) and a starting pitcher.

Padres Have Interest In Mark Trumbo

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The Padres have interest in Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (on Twitter). The Angels are known to be interested in acquiring pitching for Trumbo, however, and Shaikin notes that San Diego might not be the best match — their collection of young pitching includes several players (Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland, Casey Kelly) who are in various stages of recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Yonder Alonso hit .281/.341/.368 as the Padres' primary first baseman in 2013. Trumbo would likely be an upgrade, although it remains to be seen how his power-dependent game would play in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. Trumbo appears set to make about $4.7MM in 2014, his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Angels Willing To Trade Bourjos, Trumbo For Pitching

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The Angels' desire for young, controllable pitching is no secret, and ESPN's Buster Olney reports that they've indicated to other teams a willingness to trade center fielder Peter Bourjos or first baseman Mark Trumbo to acquire such talent (Twitter link).

Bourjos and Trumbo both have three years of team control remaining, and each is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Bourjos, who turns 27 in March, will earn $1.1MM in 2014. Trumbo, set to turn 28 in January, is projected by Swartz to see his salary jump to $4.7MM.

The salary gap between the two is sizable due to the fact that arbitration rewards Trumbo's power-oriented game while overlooking Bourjos' speed- and defense-oriented game. In terms of WAR, both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference feel that Bourjos has actually been more valuable through 354 big league games than Trumbo has through 450. Bourjos has been worth 9.0 fWAR and 8.4 rWAR to Trumbo's 6.6 fWAR and 7.6 rWAR.

Trumbo has shown more durability than Bourjos, appearing in at least 144 games in each of the past three seasons and slashing .251/.300/.473 with 95 home runs in that time. On-base percentage is unlikely to ever be one of his strong points, but his right-handed power is among the game's best, and he's been a solid defender at first base by both UZR and DRS.

Pointing out Bourjos' lack of games played isn't entirely fair, given that the majority of the time he's spent on the disabled list has come as a result of being hit by a pitch on the wrist two different times. He does have a pair of hamstring-related DL stints as well, though the hamstring issues have amounted to less time on the shelf than his wrist woes. Over the past three seasons, Bourjos is hitting .262/.321/.401 (104 OPS+). Since his promotion to the Majors, he's tied with Michael Bourn for second among center fielders in defensive value added, according to Fangraphs, trailing only Carlos Gomez for the league lead.

The free agent market offers little in the way of reliable, right-handed power at first base, with Mike Napoli representing the best option. Corey Hart belongs in that conversation too, but he was unable to take the field in 2013 after surgery on both knees. Likewise, the center field market is bleak beyond one high-priced star and another coming off an inury-riddled season. Jacoby Ellsbury may sign the second-biggest contract of the offseason, and Curtis Granderson was hit by a pair of pitches that resulted in a pair of broken bones and nearly 100 games on the DL. With little help on the free agent market, three years of Bourjos or Trumbo will be highly desirable alternatives that should net at least one solid young arm, should the Angels pull the trigger on a deal.

The Angels are also said to be willing to trade Howie Kendrick this offseason, and Erick Aybar was discussed at this year's trade deadline, so he could be on the block as well. Also on the trade front, the Blue Jays are interested in Hank Conger or Chris Iannetta. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto figures to be in for a busy offseason and will have plenty of avenues to explore in order to add the young pitching he's looking to acquire.

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