NL West Notes: Bellinger, Longoria, Diamondbacks, Johnson
With former MVP Cody Bellinger projected to earn $18.1MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility, there has been plenty of speculation that the 27-year-old might not be tendered a contract. Los Angeles president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was non-committal about Belllinger’s situation, telling reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers “still very much believe in Belli’s ability,” and that the club has “time to work through what everything looks like” prior to Friday’s deadline.
Unsurprisingly, Bellinger’s agent Scott Boras was quick to downplay the idea of a non-tender, as Boras highlighted his client’s excellent defense, throwing arm, baserunning ability, and age (27). “You just don’t find talents like this….It’s really about getting his strength back so he can repeat his skill level,” Boras said, noting the injuries that may have caused Bellinger’s huge dropoff at the plate over the last two seasons. Bellinger has hit only .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances since the start of the 2021 campaign. However, both Boras and Friedman pointed to the idea that a normal and healthy offseason could help Bellinger get on track, as Bellinger’s regular work with the Dodgers’ hitting coaches and conditioning staff was interrupted last winter by the lockout.
Other notes from around the NL West…
- Evan Longoria said last month that the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks were his preferred destinations for his final season, with the D’Backs listed alongside Longoria’s two former teams because the veteran third baseman has a home in Arizona. As such, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks are indeed expected to check in on Longoria in free agency. The 37-year-old has hit a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season, but injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games. Josh Rojas‘ versatility would allow for Longoria to get some time at third base and at DH, and the D’Backs are looking for right-handed hitting in general. As Piecoro notes, Longoria has some extra appeal as a veteran leader on a young team.
- Also from Piecoro’s post, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters that “we have had half the league, at least, talk about our outfielders.” With so many left-handed hitting young outfielders on the roster, it isn’t surprising that teams are eager to discuss trades about Arizona’s surplus. However, Hazen quieted rumblings that a trade would occur soon, saying “we’re just starting to get a handle on what type of offers we could make and what makes sense for us to help our major league team.”
- It doesn’t appear as though Pierce Johnson will re-sign with the Padres, a source tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Elbow tendinitis cost Johnson most of the 2022 campaign, as he pitched only 14 1/3 innings over 15 appearances in the regular season and then 4 1/3 more frames during the playoffs. The 31-year-old Johnson had strong (3.09 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate) numbers over 78 2/3 innings in 2020-21, albeit with a high 11.1% walk rate. Since San Diego seems to be moving on, Johnson and his excellent curveball could be an intriguing bounce-back target for the many teams looking for bullpen help in free agency.
Blake Treinen Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
The Dodgers announced to reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that right-hander Blake Treinen has undergone “right shoulder labrum and rotator cuff repair surgery.” The recovery process is about 10 months, meaning it’s possible Treinen will miss the entire 2023 season.
After a dismal 2019 campaign, Treinen was non-tendered by the A’s and signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Dodgers for 2020. It was a nice bounceback season for him, as he posted a 3.86 ERA while getting grounders on an incredible 64% of balls in play. The Dodgers were impressed enough to re-sign him for two years and $17.5MM with a 2023 club option worth $8MM.
In 2021, he took his game up a notch. Though his strikeout rate had been just above 20% in 2019 and 2020, he shot it up to 29.7% last year. He still got ground balls at a really strong 52.6% clip, helping his ERA drop down to 1.99. He also got pushed into more high leverage situations, earning seven saves and 32 holds.
2022 hasn’t been as pleasant, unfortunately. He appeared in three games in April before landing on the IL due to shoulder discomfort. He was transferred to the 60-day IL in May but the Dodgers nonetheless agreed to an extension with Treinen shortly thereafter. The extension was for $8MM in 2023, effectively guaranteeing the club option that was already in place. In addition, it came with a new club option for 2024, with a value somewhere between $1MM and $7MM. Where it falls in that range will depend upon Treinen’s health and other factors over the course of the deal.
Treinen did return to the hill this year, making a couple of appearances in September before returning to the IL. He was activated for the NLDS and made one postseason appearance, though he must have been using the last bits of strength his shoulder had. It was reported a couple of days ago that surgery seemed to be likely, and it has now indeed come to pass.
This is surely a disappointing development for Treinen personally but also for the Dodger club that took a gamble on him six months ago. They will now be on the hook for $8MM next year and that is quite likely to be a sunk cost. The 10-month recovery window makes it possible Treinen returns very late next year but he will have to rebuild strength and effectiveness after a long layoff. That makes it tough to count on him for anything. The exact calculus that goes into determining the final value of the 2024 option isn’t known, though Treinen’s upcoming extended absence will likely result in it finishing in the low end of that $1-7MM range. The club will surely make their decision based on how his health responds between now and one year from now. Treinen is currently 34 and will be turning 36 in June of 2024.
Dodgers Close To Re-Signing Clayton Kershaw
November 11: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the deal is actually close to $20MM.
November 10: Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are nearing an agreement on a one-year deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Earlier today, the Dodgers decided against issuing Kershaw a qualifying offer, but it’ll be a moot point anyway now, with the 34-year-old set to return to LA for a 16th season. Mike DiGiovanna adds that the deal will be “close” to the $17MM deal Kershaw signed last winter.
While his days of utter dominance may be behind him, Kershaw turned in another elite season in 2022, throwing 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. For the second-straight season, injuries limited Kershaw to 22 starts, and he made two separate trips to the IL this season with lower back problems. When healthy though, he was very effective posting a 27.8% strikeout rate alongside his usual immaculate walk rates. While his fastball velocity is down considerably since his prime, Kershaw has shown his incredible skill to be able to alter his usage and lean more heavily on his slider to maintain his highly successful numbers as he’s aged.
It’s hard to imagine Kershaw in any other uniform but Dodger blue, and while there’s often been reports of possibly looking to return to his hometown of Dallas and sign for the Rangers, it’s no real surprise to see him staying in LA. By doing so he’ll move closer to ticking off more milestones along his Hall of Fame career. His 12 pitching wins in 2022 take him to 197 in his career, so he’ll certainly notch up win number 200 next season. While pitching wins are largely irrelevant when assessing a player’s ability, it is a notable milestone and one to take a tremendous amount of pride in, and Kershaw will be just the fourth active pitcher to reach 200 behind Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer. He’s also 193 strikeouts shy of 3,000. That mark is less likely to be reached in 2023, given Kershaw hasn’t reached 190 in a season since posting 202 in 2017.
The milestones are just reward for a player who has been a mainstay atop some dominant Dodger rotations decade or so. Drafted seventh overall out of high school in 2006, Kershaw would make his Dodgers debut as a 20-year-old in 2008. Just a year later Kershaw would begin a staggering run of dominance in which he’d post ten-straight seasons with a sub-3 ERA. In fact, his rookie year was the only year he posted an ERA over four, and there were only two other seasons where it was over three. It was between 2011-17 that Kershaw was at his absolute best though. During that period he won three Cy Young awards (and never finished outside the top-five), one MVP, led the league in ERA in five times, and posted one 300 strikeout campaign.
The rotation was set to be an area of focus for the Dodgers this winter as Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and Kershaw all headed for free agency, with Anderson the only one to receive a qualifying offer. Kershaw will slot back in alongside Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin to form the core of a very strong rotation. Dustin May, Ryan Pepiot are both internal candidates to fill out the rotation, but it’s more likely the Dodgers seek another arm to solidify the backend. That decision may well be made for them in fact, as there’s at least a decent chance that Anderson opts to accept the qualifying offer and return to the Dodgers on a one year, $19.65MM deal.
The Opener: Relief Market, Kershaw, Yoshida
As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. Implications Of Diaz, Suarez Deals
The relief market has moved quickly in the early going of this offseason, with perhaps the top two options, Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez, already off the market. Both relievers re-signed with the Mets and Padres, respectively, but the more notable piece of these signings is the contracts they both managed to secure. In signing a five-year, $102MM contract, Diaz became the first reliever to receive a $100MM guarantee or an AAV of $20MM, though given his superlative platform season (1.31 ERA/0.90 FIP), there was never any doubt that he would get paid handsomely. Suarez, while a top relief arm in this offseason’s class in his own right, pales in comparison to Diaz, with a 2.27 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 47 2/3 innings in 2022, his first major league season after playing the first six years of his career in Japan. Despite his lack of major-league experience and the fact that he’ll play 2023 at the age of 32, Suarez still managed to receive a five year, $46MM deal. While the AAV is about in line with what most would have expected, San Diego’s decision to sign Suarez to a deal that guarantees him money through his age-36 season certainly registers as a surprise, particularly given that there’s also an opt-out in the deal. With perhaps the two best relievers off the market, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the relief market plays out from here. Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers represent some of the top options still available, and while they were projected for just two or three year deals in MLBTR’s Top 50 list yesterday, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Suarez deal indicates the relief market may be stronger than had previously been expected.
2. Kershaw, Dodgers Close To Deal
Reports last night indicated that the Dodgers were close to re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to another one-year contract similar to the one he received last offseason, and it’s possible said contract could be agreed upon as soon as today. This deal comes as no surprise, as Kershaw had previously mentioned that he was likely to continue playing in 2023, and despite rumors last year that he may sign with his hometown Texas Rangers, the more widely held expectation has been that if Kershaw is playing anywhere next season, it will be in Los Angeles. Should the Kershaw deal become official, the Dodgers will have additional security in their rotation headed into the meat of the offseason. Tyler Anderson (to whom the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer yesterday) and Andrew Heaney joined Kershaw in free agency after the 2022 season, leaving the club in need of more arms. Still, it’s reasonable to expect L.A. to continue searching for rotation help even with Kershaw returning for next year, particularly given his increasingly frequent trips to the injured list in recent years.
3. Masataka Yoshida Garnering Interest
It was reported last week that Nippon Professional Baseball star Masataka Yoshida may be posted by his team, the Japan Series champion Orix Buffaloes, and rumors have only grown since then. In particular, the folks at the New York Post seem confident not only that Yoshida will indeed be posted — Joel Sherman suggests such a move is expected to come next month — but that he will find considerable interest from MLB clubs. Sherman notes that Yoshida “is going to draw a lot of interest”, while Jon Heyman indicates that the Yankees, in particular, may be interested in Yoshida, whether or not they manage to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman notes that Yoshida’s lefty bat could help bring balance to a Yankees lineup that’s heavily right-handed, and stands to become even more so should they not re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Should Yoshida be posted, he would join the corner outfield market as one of the younger, more intriguing options behind Judge. Speculatively speaking, teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners are among the many who could have interest in Yoshida.
Dodgers Decline Club Option On Justin Turner
The Dodgers announced they’ve declined their $16MM option on Justin Turner. The third baseman receives a $2MM buyout and heads to free agency.
Turner, 38 later this month, struggled to establish himself in his first few seasons in the big leagues, struggling in his time with the Orioles and Mets. He joined the Dodgers for the 2014 season and busted out with a .340/.404/.493 batting line, production that was 58% better than league average according to wRC+.
Since that time, he’s been a mainstay in Los Angeles, playing at least 103 games in each season outside of the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s continued to be a consistently above-average hitter, never finishing a season with a wRC+ below 123. His power has often been strong, though never elite. He’s hit 27 home runs three times but never more than that. His bat-to-ball skills are quite strong, however, as he’s never posted a strikeout rate higher than 18%, well below the typical league average, with this year’s ending up at 22.4%.
Twice in his Dodger career, Turner has reached free agency and re-signed with the club. After the 2016 season, they agreed to a four-year reunion that came with a $64MM guarantee. He returned to the open market after 2020 and then re-signed with the Dodgers again, this time for a two-year, $34MM deal with a club option for 2023. That option was for $16MM with a $2MM buyout.
For the first half of 2022, Turner’s age-37 season, it seemed like he would make the decision very easy for the Dodgers. Through the end of June, he was hitting a paltry .227/.298/.375, wRC+ of 90. However, he completely flipped the script in the second half, hitting .340/.412/.514 for a wRC+ of 163 from the start of July onwards. That left his combined line pretty close to his typical level of production, as the result was a .278/.350/.438 slash for a 123 wRC+. That surely gave the club much more to think about, but they have still opted for the $2MM buyout instead of the $16MM salary.
While it’s always possible he and the team could reunite at a different price point, it’s now possible that the club sees a lot of turnover in its infield. Shortstop Trea Turner is also heading to free agency, meaning the club is potentially subtracting two Turners from the left side of the infield. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman recently spoke about how the club is open to having Gavin Lux slide over from second base to shortstop to take over for Trea, and it’s possible they feel the same way about having internal replacements take over the hot corner. Prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022, and though he struggled in his limited MLB time, he has tremendous minor league numbers. In Triple-A this year, he hit .304/.404/.511 for a wRC+ of 129. If they were willing to let he and Lux take over the left side of the infield, they could then dedicate their resources to the pitching staff and center field, where Cody Bellinger is a non-tender candidate.
If Turner does have to find a new employer for 2023, he will have one thing working in his favor. He will easily be the top option on the third base free agent market. Since Nolan Arenado decided not to opt out of his deal with the Cardinals, the best remaining options are utility players like Brandon Drury, Jace Peterson or Aledmys Diaz. Those players all are intriguing in one way or another but none of them has the track record of consistent offensive production like Turner does. Given his age, Turner won’t be able to secure a lengthy pact, but that will also appeal to certain clubs that prefer to avoid those types of deals.
14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
- Joc Pederson (Giants)
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.
If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.
Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.
[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]
The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.
Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.
The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.
The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.
That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.
Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.
Shoulder Surgery Under Consideration For Blake Treinen
Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen battled shoulder discomfort in 2022 and missed the bulk of his year. Unfortunately, that remains a problem heading into the offseason, and it seems as if the injury will carry into next season.
L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) this evening the team and Treinen are still working through treatment possibilities. While Gomes characterized surgery as one of multiple options under consideration, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register ominously reports that a procedure is “likely.” If Treinen did have to go under the knife, Plunkett adds, he’d require a 10-month recovery period and thus miss most or all of the 2023 campaign.
Treinen was limited to just five regular season appearances this year. He was on the injured list from April to September. Reinstated at the start of September, he made just two appearances before going back on the IL. The Dodgers activated Treinen for the postseason, calling upon him just once.
The injuries that caused that stop-and-start remain a concern, and Plunkett writes that both Treinen’s rotator cuff and labrum would be fixed if he goes under the knife. That’s certainly not what the Dodgers envisioned when signing the right-hander to an $8MM contract for 2023 in May. That deal also contains a club option for the 2024 campaign that’d be valued anywhere between $1MM and $7MM depending upon Treinen’s health for next season. Obviously, surgery wiping out much or all of his season — if necessary — would make it unlikely the Dodgers would trigger the option.
During his last healthy season, the veteran sinkerballer was one of the sport’s top late-game arms. The former All-Star worked to a 1.99 ERA across 72 1/3 innings in 2021, racking up grounders at a 52.6% clip.
Dodgers Considering Qualifying Offer For Tyler Anderson
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, there’s a “good chance” the Dodgers will extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to left-hander Tyler Anderson.
Teams have until 4pm Central on Thursday to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players, giving the Dodgers about 24 hours left to make a final decision. If they indeed extend the offer to Anderson, he will have 10 days to talk to other teams and decide whether to accept it or turn it down.
The fact that Anderson is even a candidate for the offer speaks to what an incredible breakout season he had in 2022. Coming into the year, he had a career 4.62 ERA and fairly average peripherals with a 20.5 strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 39.1% ground ball rate. The Dodgers gave him a one-year, $8MM deal for his age-32 season.
That turned out to be a tremendous bargain for the club, as Anderson’s work in Dodger blue far surpassed any of his previous seasons. He appeared in 30 games and tossed 178 2/3 innings with an incredible 2.57 ERA, barely half of his previous average. His rate stats were still fairly similar to his previous ones, though he did drop his walk rate to a stingy 4.8%.
Where he seems to have made strides was inducing poor contact from opposing hitters. He was in the 98th percentile in terms of hard hit rate, going from 33% in 2021 to 28.5% in 2022. His average exit velocity was also 98th percentile while his chase rate was 95th and his barrel rate was 86th. At least part of this could be credited to his changeup, which he threw 31.6% percent of the time compared to just 24.6% of the time in 2021.
Regardless of how he did it, the improvements are enough that the Dodgers are considering a salary more than double what they paid a year ago. If Anderson were to turn down the offer and sign elsewhere, they would be entitled to draft pick compensation. Since the Dodgers paid the competitive balance tax in 2022, their pick would be pushed back until after the fourth round. A signing team would also be subject to the forfeit of at least one pick, with other penalties on the table as well, depending on whether the team was a CBT payer or revenue sharing recipient.
Whether Anderson would accept the offer or not is an interesting question. On the one hand, this is likely his best chance at earning a hefty multi-year paycheck, since he’s coming off a season that could well be the best of his career. On the other hand, he never had a salary above $2.5MM prior to getting the $8MM from the Dodgers a year ago. If he suddenly had a $19.65MM offer on the table, it would likely be hard to turn it down. Based on his excellent campaign, plenty of teams would be interested in signing him, though having to surrender at least one draft pick would temper their offers to some degree.
The Opener: Click, Option Decisions, White Sox
As the offseason continues to chug through it’s earliest stages, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Will James Click Continue As Houston’s GM?
While Dusty Baker has accepted a one-year contract extension as Astros manager, GM James Click did not do the same when owner Jim Crane offered him a one-year extension of his own, telling reporters he is “in discussions” regarding a new contract. While it’s something of a shock that the World Series-winning general manager wouldn’t receive a multi-year extension offer, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, there has long been speculation of Crane looking for a change in the front office, which is only further fueled by reports that he shot down a deal for Cubs catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. Heyman suggests that the Astros may have interest in David Stearns, a former Houston executive who recently stepped down from his president of baseball operations position with Milwaukee. Stearns is still under contract with the Brewers for 2023, however, so the Astros would likely need to make a minor trade along the lines of the deal between the Cubs and Red Sox to send Theo Epstein to Chicago after the 2011 season if they are to acquire his services for the 2023 season. It’s also worth noting that Stearns definitively stated upon stepping back as president he plans to remain in Milwaukee and spend more time with family.
2. Option Decisions Continue To Linger
On the eve of the deadline for options decisions, a few notable ones still linger. Perhaps the most notable player in the bunch is longtime Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, on whom the club faces a $14MM decision on. A strong second half made what once seemed like an easy decision to decline the option much less clear cut. That being said, with players like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch waiting in the wings, the Dodgers may prefer their younger internal options going forward. A few clubs also having intriguing option decisions to make in the rotation, most notably the Mets on Carlos Carrasco and the Orioles on Jordan Lyles. Both teams are relatively thin on proven rotation arms (the Mets thanks to other potential free-agent departures), so locking up a starter for 2023 could make sense for either club. That said, the $10MM the Orioles would spend on Lyles may be better served allocated to another starter with, perhaps, a higher ceiling, while the Mets may prefer to search for a younger option for their rotation than Carrasco, who will play 2023 at age 36. Aside from Carrasco, the Mets have Max Scherzer, 38, under contract for next season and are reportedly expressing interest in reunions with Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, who are both in their mid-thirties.
3. White Sox Have Plenty Of Needs This Offseason
After a disappointing 81-81 season and with many holes to fill on the roster, the White Sox will need to be active this offseason. In addition to longtime first baseman Jose Abreu hitting free agency, outfielder AJ Pollock declined his player option in a surprising move, and Chicago declined to exercise their option on second baseman Josh Harrison. While these option decisions have saved the club some money (Pollock’s decision in particular saves Chicago $8MM), they still might not have a lot to spend this offseason. RosterResource estimates their 2023 payroll to be just over $174MM, not far below their all-time record payroll of $194MM in 2022. The Athletic’s James Fegan notes that while Hahn has expressed confidence in top prospect Oscar Colas as an outfield regular in 2023, he similarly noted the possibility that Eloy Jimenez will spend more time at DH going forward, leaving the club in position to pursue outfield options regardless of Colas’s readiness for an everyday major league role, particularly with Pollock’s departure meaning their best internal fourth outfielder is Adam Engel. Given most of the Chicago lineup is right-handed, an outfielder who can hit from the left side, such as Joc Pederson, or the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, would make sense as a target. As for second base, Chicago’s dearth of production at the position in recent years makes them an obvious fit for Jean Segura, but a lower-cost option such as Adam Frazier could also make sense.
Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Correa, Lux, Shortstop
The Dodgers have not yet determined whether they’ll make a qualifying offer to Clayton Kershaw, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last night at the GM Meetings (Twitter thread via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Friedman emphasized that bringing Kershaw back “is a real priority” for the team, adding that “things just feel more right in the world when Kershaw is wearing a Dodgers uniform.” The team did not extend a qualifying offer to Kershaw last year, due largely out of respect for the veteran lefty, whom they didn’t want to force into a rushed decision.
Similar sentiments are at play in 2022, it seems, as Friedman again spoke Kershaw taking the time to talk with his wife to decide what’s best for their future. Common consensus last winter was that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers (as he eventually did) or sign with the Rangers, who play their home games a short drive from Kershaw’s Texas home, which would thus afford him more time with his wife and four young children.
It’s a familiar situation for the Dodgers, and if last year’s process is any indication, it could take some time for things to play out. A Kershaw return would be a boon for a rotation that’ll be missing Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery) for all of the 2023 season and could see Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart as free agents. At present, the only locks for the Dodgers’ 2023 rotation are Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.
To that end, it’s not a surprise that Friedman described starting pitching as a “very” high priority for the Dodgers this winter (Twitter thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Friedman also touched on the team’s shortstop situation, noting that even if Trea Turner signs elsewhere, the team feels confident in Gavin Lux‘s ability to take over the shortstop role on an everyday basis. Of course, it’s hardly a surprise to see any baseball operations leader giving a vote of confidence to an in-house option, and such comments shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a steadfast declaration that the Dodgers would be “out” on the likes of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson if Turner ultimately signs elsewhere after rejecting his qualifying offer.
It’s worth noting, to at least some extent, that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning that Dodgers officials harbor some concern as to how Correa in particular would be perceived by fans. It’s been five years since the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but fans have a long memory and still hold plenty of resentment for how that season played out. There are greater public relations implications with a Correa/Dodgers fit than with Correa and another club.
Adding my own two cents to the matter, it’d be particularly problematic if both Correa and Turner wind up with comparable price tags — as many expect — and Correa gets out to a poor start. Even setting performances aside, there’d be plenty of fan backlash at the notion of letting Turner, currently popular and productive in Los Angeles, leave in favor of Correa if the two indeed have comparable price tags. Plus, as Rosenthal alludes to, the Dodgers tend to shy away from such lengthy contractual commitments. Mookie Betts is a notable exception, but Freddie Freeman is the only other contract of at least six years given out by the Dodgers under Friedman; Correa and Turner both figure to command lengthier pacts.
As for Lux, the notion of him stepping up as the everyday shortstop isn’t necessarily far-fetched. The 24-year-old (25 in a few weeks) ranked as one of the game’s five best prospects heading into the 2020 season and, after pedestrian small-sample results in 2019-20, has elevated his level of play. Lux’s .242/.328/.364 slash in 2021 was about 10% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+, but he upped his production with a .276/.346/.399 output in 2022 (113 wRC+).
Lux was having a monster summer, hitting .308/.380/.462 over a span of more than 300 plate appearances, when he began experiencing back pain and received a cortisone shot. He missed about two weeks’ worth of games in September and, upon returning, hit just .154/.170/.192 in his final 54 plate appearances, which helped to drag down his season-long numbers. Still, there’s good reason to believe that a full, healthy season of Lux in 2023 could be a highly valuable player for the Dodgers at shortstop.
At this stage of the offseason, teams haven’t even yet been granted permission to speak with free agents from other clubs, so there’s no way to properly gauge just what trajectory the team might take. Nonetheless, it’s of some note to hear Friedman prioritize Kershaw (and starting pitching in general) and give a vote of confidence to Lux as a shortstop option. The Dodgers will surely be attached to all of the marquee shortstops to an extent this winter, but that’s as much a reflection on their deep pockets and “open to anything’ mentality as it is on their perceived need at that specific position.