Dodgers To Decline Danny Duffy’s Club Option
The Dodgers are declining their $7MM club option on left-hander Danny Duffy, reports Anne Rogers of MLB.com (Twitter link). There’s no buyout, and the veteran hurler heads back to the open market.
There wasn’t much suspense with this decision, as Duffy hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in a year and a half. The longtime Royal was off to a strong start to the 2021 campaign, pitching to a 2.51 ERA through 61 innings. He suffered a flexor strain and was on the injured list as the trade deadline rolled around, but L.A. nevertheless acquired him from the Royals. He suffered a setback and didn’t pitch that year, and he underwent surgery over the offseason.
The Dodgers signed Duffy to a $3MM guarantee over the winter, hoping he’d contribute as a reliever for the stretch run and into the postseason. Unfortunately, he suffered another setback while attempting to rehab in the late summer and didn’t get back to the majors. Duffy’s year and a half in the organization didn’t result in him taking the mound in Dodger blue.
Duffy has a career 3.95 ERA, but he may have to conduct a showcase for teams this winter to demonstrate his health. He turns 34 years old in December.
Dodgers Decline Club Option On Jimmy Nelson
The Dodgers announced that they have declined their 2023 club option on right-hander Jimmy Nelson. They could have retained him at a $1.1MM salary but will instead let him return to the open market. There was no buyout attached to the option.
Nelson spent many years as a starter with the Brewers before being derailed by injuries. He missed the 2018 and 2020 seasons entirely and only threw 22 innings in 2019, putting up a 6.95 ERA in that brief window when he was healthy.
However, he seemed to get things back on track with the Dodgers in 2021. He made 28 appearances that season, throwing 29 innings with a 1.86 ERA. He walked 11.9% of batters faced but struck out 37.9% of them, well above that year’s 24% average for relievers. Unfortunately, that strong bounceback season was cut short when Nelson required Tommy John and flexor repair surgery in August.
Despite the surgery, the Dodgers re-signed him for the 2022 campaign, knowing he was unlikely to contribute that season. He received a league-minimum $700K salary while rehabbing, with the Dodgers able to trigger the $1.1MM option for 2023. The league minimum salary is jumping to $720K next year, meaning that $1.1MM figure is only $380K above. For a team that’s typically among the biggest spenders in the league, that would be a small risk to take on a pitcher who was so dominant when last healthy. However, the club has opted not to take that chance.
There’s no financial risk here for the Dodgers, since there is no buyout on the option. Their only risk is losing Nelson to a rival team now that he has the ability to pursue offers from all 29 other clubs. Though it’s also possible that he and the club could reconnect on another deal.
Dodgers To Decline Club Option On Hanser Alberto
The Dodgers are going to decline their club option on utility player Hanser Alberto, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. They will pay him a $250K buyout instead of a $2MM salary, with Alberto becoming a free agent.
Alberto, 30, has bounced around the league in his career, spending time with the Rangers, Orioles and Royals before signing with the Dodgers for 2022. He’s never been a huge threat at the plate, with his 12 home runs in the “juiced ball” season of 2019 marking a career high. However, he doesn’t strike out much, with a career rate of 12.2%, well below this year’s 22.4% league average. He also adds some defensive versatility, having spent some time at all four infield positions and the outfield corners.
The Dodgers have long been big fans of versatility and signed Alberto for a $1.6MM guarantee for 2022, which came in the form of a $1.35MM base and $250K buyout on the 2023 option. If Alberto had taken a step forward, he could have been a bargain at that price, but he largely produced more of the same. He hit .244/.258/.365 in Los Angeles for a wRC+ of 73, with his most notable contribution to the club arguably being that he stepped into a role as the designated mop-up pitcher. He eventually logged 11 innings in various blowout games, putting up a tidy 4.09 ERA in that time. He’ll now return to the open market in search of his next gig.
Dodgers Claim Luke Williams From Marlins
The Dodgers announced that they have claimed Luke Williams off waivers from the Marlins. Los Angeles’ 40-man roster count now sits at 33.
Williams has bounced around the league over the past eight months. A former third-round pick of the Phillies, he debuted with Philadelphia last year. Williams spent the offseason on the Philly roster but was designated for assignment during Spring Training. He was dealt to the Giants just before Opening Day, but San Francisco took him off the 40-man roster a few months later. The Marlins acquired him in May, and he played out the year in Miami.
The 26-year-old tallied 136 MLB plate appearances between San Francisco and Miami, hitting .236/.287/.315 with a lone home run. He struck out at a lofty 32.4% clip and didn’t draw many walks, but he does offer a fair bit of defensive flexibility. Williams started games at second and third base and in left field this year, and the Phils gave him looks at shortstop and in center field last year.
Williams still has two minor league option years remaining, so the Dodgers can shuttle him between L.A. and Triple-A Oklahoma City for the foreseeable future. That’s assuming he holds his spot on the 40-man roster all winter, although it’s possible Los Angeles tries to run him through waivers at some point in the next few months as they make further additions.
Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions
The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).
With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.
Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.
Locks
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Edwin Díaz (Mets)
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.
Possible Candidates
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.
Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.
Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.
One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.
- Mitch Haniger (Mariners)
Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.
Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.
- Andrew Heaney (Dodgers)
The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.
Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.
That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.
If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.
Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.
- Jameson Taillon (Yankees)
Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.
Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.
- Taijuan Walker (Mets)
Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.
Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.
Longshots
- Mike Clevinger (Padres)
Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.
- Zach Eflin (Phillies)
Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.
- Sean Manaea (Padres)
San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.
- Jurickson Profar (Padres)
Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.
- Ross Stripling (Blue Jays)
Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox)
Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.
Ineligible
- José Abreu (White Sox)
- Josh Bell (Padres)
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees)
- Carlos Correa (Twins)
- Noah Syndergaard (Phillies)
- Justin Verlander (Astros)
All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ‘previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.
The Opener: Astros, Options, Diamondbacks
Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
With the final game of the 2022 MLB season coming as soon as tomorrow night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. Astros Facing Decisions On Baker, Click
After a hard-fought Game 5 that afforded Justin Verlander his first pitcher win in the World Series, the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however, they’ll have to face the personnel decisions that their postseason run has put on hold to this point. Both manager Dusty Baker and GM James Click are on expiring contracts, and Astros owner Jim Crane will have to decide their futures with the franchise. The Astros are expected to ask Baker to return in 2023, and Baker has indicated that he would like to continue managing regardless of the outcome of this postseason run. The future is murkier for Click, however, as speculation has run rampant throughout the postseason that he may not be asked to return to Houston in 2023, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Click’s future as recently as last night. While it’s surprising to see so much uncertainty around a GM who has captured back-to-back AL pennants and might add a World Series championship to his resume as soon as tomorrow night, reports of a personality clash between Crane and Click abound. Heyman suggests that the Astros may be interested in David Stearns, who served as their assistant GM prior to running Milwaukee’s front office. While Stearns has stepped down as president of baseball operations for the Brewers, he’s not likely to run the Astros or any other team during the 2023 season, for which he is still under contract in Milwaukee. Even if the Astros are indeed interested in Stearns as their long-term head of baseball operations, the question of who will be at the helm in Houston next season remains unanswered.
2. Option Decisions Loom
A number of players and teams are facing option decisions, and with the World Series set to end this weekend, those decisions will have to be made sometime next week. While some decisions, such as that of Nolan Arenado, have already been made, most are still up in the air. Anthony Rizzo, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Odorizzi are among the players with tougher decisions facing them on whether or not to test free agency. As for club options, the Dodgers have one of the tougher calls on Justin Turner‘s $16MM option, as do the Brewers on Kolten Wong‘s $10MM option. Additionally, many of the biggest names on the free agent market this season, such as Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, are technically not set to be free agents until they opt-out of their current contracts, though for decisions as clear as these this is little more than a formality.
3. Arizona Faces Outfield Logjam
Despite finishing the regular season with an unimpressive 74-88 record, the Diamondbacks are by no means a team without talent. Unfortunately for Arizona, however, a great deal of that talent overlaps heavily, as the team is flush with young, controllable, lefty-hitting outfielders. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas highlight the bunch in terms of prospect pedigree, but Jake McCarthy had a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho turned in a quality season as an everyday player spending most of his time in the outfield, Pavin Smith won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next season, and Dominic Fletcher is knocking on the door in Triple-A. Between the DH and some positional versatility — Varsho caught 175 innings in 2022, while Smith played a bit of first base — Arizona could find at-bats for most, or perhaps even all, of these players. A better solution for the Diamondbacks, though, would be to explore trades for one or two of these young players in order to shore up their pitching staff or address other holes in the lineup. Carroll and Varsho would likely be off-limits, but perhaps a team looking to get more left-handed bats into the lineup, such as either Chicago team or the Marlins, could be interested in acquiring McCarthy, Smith, or Fletcher. While it’s not inconceivable Thomas could be moved, after a rough start to his major league career in 2022, Arizona would likely be selling low on him in any deal.
Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Receive For Losing A Qualified Free Agent
Earlier today, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes outlined what each team would have to surrender as compensation if it signed a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. Now, let’s take a look at what each team would receive in return if one of their free agents turned down a QO and signed with another club. (As a reminder, players can’t be issued a qualifying offer more than once during their careers, and this year’s QO is set for $19.65MM.)
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays
If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of the draft. That means a pick that could fall within the top 30, since the Mets’ and Dodgers’ first selections dropped out of the first round because they exceeded the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM. If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (roughly 75th-80th overall).
This winter’s free agent class doesn’t consist of many players who are plausible QO candidates from any of these team, except for possibly Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. If Seattle did issue Haniger a qualifying offer, however, the compensation issue might still be a moot point since there is a chance Haniger might just accept the offer (after an injury-shortened season) and remain with the M’s.
Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals
For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).
Dansby Swanson (Braves), Willson Contreras (Cubs), and Carlos Rodon (Giants) will all surely receive qualifying offers. Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado would’ve also been an obvious pick, except he chose to avoid free agency altogether in deciding to not opt out of his contract.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres
If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2023 draft. That roughly works out to around the 140th overall pick in the draft, so it’s a pretty noteworthy drop from the 75-80 range from the previous grouping.
The penalty is more significant in this particular offseason, given how many of these teams have very prominent free agents that will surely receive qualifying offers. The Yankees have Aaron Judge, the Dodgers have Trea Turner and maybe Tyler Anderson, the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts and probably Nathan Eovaldi, and the Mets have a full quartet — Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo.
Exceeding the tax line can be seen as the cost of doing business, given how five of the six payors made the playoffs and the Phillies are competing for the World Series. For the Red Sox, however, crossing the CBT threshold is doubly painful, as Boston didn’t even post a winning record in 2022.
Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent
As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA allowed for the creation of an international amateur draft. As this was something MLB was pushing for, the proposed tradeoff was the elimination of free agent compensation. The two sides reached their overall CBA in March, but included a July 25th deadline for the possible international draft/free agent compensation trade. The two sides failed to reach an agreement by that July deadline, so the qualifying offer system for free agent compensation that was agreed to 11 years ago remains in place.
The qualifying offer is set at $19.65MM this offseason, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO. Certain star free agents, including Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, are locks to receive and turn down a qualifying offer. A dozen others could easily join them.
If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres
If any of these six teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2023 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays
These 14 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. The Twins and Mariners are realistic possibilities to sign a qualified free agent, while the Orioles and a few other revenue sharing recipients may lurk as dark horses.
All Other Teams: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals
These 10 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.
What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers won the most regular-season games in the franchise’s 133-year history, cruising to a 111-51 record. Unfortunately, that success made it all the more disappointing when the Dodgers didn’t even win a playoff round, falling to the Padres in four games in the NLDS. Los Angeles now faces the possible departure of several key members of the roster, yet also a potential opportunity to reload with more premium talent.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mookie Betts, OF: $320MM through 2032 ($99MM is deferred)
- Freddie Freeman, 1B: $135MM through 2027 ($50MM is deferred)
- Chris Taylor, IF/OF: $45MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout of club option for 2026)
- Max Muncy, IF: $13.5MM through 2023 ($10MM club option for 2024, no buyout)
- Blake Treinen, RP: $8MM through 2023 (conditional club option for 2024 based on Treinen’s health)
- Austin Barnes, C: $7MM through 2024 ($3.5MM club option for 2025)
- Daniel Hudson, RP: $6.5MM through 2023 ($6.5MM club option for 2024)
- Note: Trevor Bauer is suspended without pay for the 2023 season, though Bauer is appealing the league’s ruling
Option Decisions
- Justin Turner, 3B: $16MM club option for 2023 ($2MM buyout)
- Danny Duffy, SP: $7MM club option for 2023
- Hanser Alberto, IF: $2MM club option for 2023 ($250K buyout)
- Jimmy Nelson, RP: $1.1MM club option for 2023
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Cody Bellinger (5.160): $18.1MM
- Julio Urias (5.117): $13.7MM
- Walker Buehler (4.168): $8.1MM
- Caleb Ferguson (4.088): $1.1MM
- Yency Almonte (3.143): $1MM
- Will Smith (3.090): $5.2MM
- Dustin May (3.059): $1.4MM
- Trayce Thompson (3.010): $1.7MM
- Edwin Rios (3.003): $1.4MM
- Brusdar Graterol (2.167): $1.2MM
- Tony Gonsolin (2.152): $3.5MM
- Evan Phillips (2.136): $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Bellinger
Free Agents
- Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Tyler Anderson, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Heaney, Joey Gallo, Tommy Kahnle, Chris Martin, Kevin Pillar, Robbie Erlin, Beau Burrows
The price of being a perennial contender is that anything short of a World Series title feels like a letdown, though the Dodgers’ record has been so overwhelmingly good over the last decade that it’s hard to say that the franchise isn’t moving in the right direction. This is the argument president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made in his after-season press conference, and yet it is also an argument Friedman has had to make in seven of his eight seasons running the L.A. front office. Still, the 2020 World Series title is very recent evidence that Friedman’s approach can indeed get the Dodgers over the finish line, and the team will certainly go into 2023 as one of the favorites to capture another Commissioner’s Trophy.
Dave Roberts is coming back as manager, which isn’t surprising since the contract extension Roberts last spring hasn’t even officially begun. Friedman also implied that the entire coaching staff will return, unless any coaches are offered promotions with other teams. Adding to the “getting the band back together” feeling is the fact that the Dodgers already addressed some winter business by reaching extensions with Max Muncy, Daniel Hudson, Austin Barnes, and Blake Treinen during the season.
Of these new deals, Barnes is the only one who received a multi-year guarantee. The Muncy, Hudson, and Treinen extensions all essentially amounted to the Dodgers guaranteeing a pre-existing club option for 2023, while adding another club option for 2024. There was still some risk in these decisions, given that L.A. has now committed $14.5MM to two relievers who combined for 29 1/3 innings last season — Hudson was pitching very well before tearing his ACL in June, while Treinen barely pitched at all due to persistent shoulder injuries.
Muncy had an unusual season, and was undoubtedly impacted by a partial UCL tear in his left elbow suffered on the last day of the 2021 regular season. Muncy opted against surgery, and then struggled to a .161/.310/.303 slash line over his first 339 plate appearances before turning it around to hit .247/.358/.500 in his final 226 PA. His extension was announced a few weeks into that late-season hot streak, indicating that the Dodgers are confident that Muncy can get back to his old form when fully healthy.
Even with these four potential free agents locked up, Los Angeles still has a long list of names set to hit the open market, and even more notables that could also become free agents depending on club options or non-tenders. Muncy’s extension may be seen as a hedge against an infield overhaul, considering that Trea Turner will be one of the headliners of the 2022-23 free agent class, backup Hanser Alberto is probably unlikely to be retained, and the Dodgers face a $14MM decision on whether or not to exercise the club option of longtime staple Justin Turner. The third baseman turns 38 in November and is coming off an inconsistent 2022 season,
The first base and catcher positions are locked down by Freddie Freeman and Will Smith. Muncy can play second or third base, and Gavin Lux can continue at second base or slide over to shortstop if Turner departs. Edwin Rios has been plagued with injuries over the last two seasons, but he has shown enough flashes of hitting potential and the Dodgers will likely tender him a contract and hope he can contribute to the corner infield mix (though like Muncy and Freeman, Rios is also a left-handed hitter). Top prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut last season and also figures to be a factor in left field or third base, even if the Dodgers may not be sure about his eventual position in the majors. Super-utilityman Chris Taylor can fill in all over the infield, though Taylor was mostly deployed as an outfielder last season and is looking to bounce back after a disappointing season.
Many teams would be quite satisfied with a starting infield of Smith, Freeman, Muncy, Lux, and a Vargas/Rios platoon at third base, with Taylor as a multi-position backup and touted rookies Michael Busch (a top-100 prospect in his own right) and Jacob Amaya knocking on the door for their own Major League debuts. But…this is the Dodgers we’re talking about. They prize roster flexibility, and they have the financial resources and minor league depth to pursue just about every free agent or trade candidate on the market.
It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Dodgers exercise Justin Turner’s option, re-sign Trea Turner, and just run things back with the core infield of an 111-win team. If Trea Turner departed, Los Angeles could certainly turn to one of their other star shortstops in the free agent market, and there have been some rumblings that the Dodgers are looking at Carlos Correa as their top alternative at the shortstop position.
L.A. could also potentially upgrade the infield by adding to the outfield, such as a scenario where Mookie Betts is suddenly a big part of the second base mix when Aaron Judge is signed to play right field. The Dodgers (as is their nature with every top free agent) have at least some interest in Judge, and while both Judge or Betts could be in the same outfield if one of them occasionally plays center field, returning Betts to his old second base position would certainly bolster the infield in the event of Trea Turner’s possible departure.
Because this is the Dodgers, a scenario can’t be ruled out where both Judge and Trea Turner are signed, with Los Angeles flexing its payroll muscles once again. That said, a case could be made that the Dodgers might see this winter as a chance to reset their luxury tax penalties. A lot of money is coming off the books in the form of the in-house free agents, leaving around $165.4MM committed to the 2023 roster in dollars, and a projected Competitive Balance Tax bill of just under $184MM.
Obviously, the Dodgers don’t have any qualms about paying CBT penalties in general, as they’ve soared over the tax line in each of the last two seasons. Three consecutive years of tax overages increases the penalties, however, both in terms of actual money paid on the tax bill, and (most importantly for the Dodgers) continued impact on the compensation both received and handed out regarding qualifying-offer free agents. For instance, Trea Turner will surely be issued a QO and reject it to test the market, and if signs elsewhere, Los Angeles will receive only a pick after the fourth round of the draft as compensation. Likewise, if the Dodgers signed Judge or another player who turned down a QO, the Dodgers would have to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft, as well as $1MM in international bonus pool funds.
All of these penalties would disappear next winter if the Dodgers got under the $233MM luxury tax threshold in 2023, and the roughly $49MM of current tax wiggle room would allow for L.A. to still make some necessary roster additions. The Dodgers can also carve out more room by trades or non-tenders, and Cody Bellinger‘s projected $18.1MM salary stands out in this regard.
Since winning the NL MVP Award in 2019, Bellinger has hit only .203/.272/.376 with 41 homers over 1143 plate appearances. His offense particularly cratered following shoulder surgery during the 2020-21 offseason, and other injuries have also contributed to Bellinger’s sharp decline at the plate. Though he is still an excellent defensive center fielder and a strong baserunner, that’s a skillset that the Dodgers can replace for a lot less than $18.1MM. (Speculatively, Friedman might look to an old friend from his days in Tampa Bay now that former Gold Glover Kevin Kiermaier is entering free agency.)
There is a chance Bellinger isn’t tendered a contract and then re-signed to a lower salary, but of course he could also pursue a change of scenery with another team looking to buy low on a former MVP. Friedman is likely to explore trade possibilities for Bellinger before the non-tender deadline, but apart from a scenario where Bellinger is swapped for another team’s undesirable contract, interested clubs might see if they can wait out the Dodgers and then pounce on Bellinger if he is indeed non-tendered.
Despite Bellinger’s struggles, his departure would leave a hole in the Los Angeles outfield. Betts remains the cornerstone piece, and journeyman Trayce Thompson unexpectedly broke out in a huge way after being acquired in an under-the-radar pickup from the Tigers in June. Thompson played so well that he certainly has earned a place on the 2023 team, but without much of a track record of consistent MLB success, the Dodgers might still consider him more of a part-timer than as a sure thing for everyday action. If nothing else, Thompson might at least take over Bellinger’s role as a defensive standout, with upside at the plate.
As noted, Taylor is looking to rebound from a disappointing season that was plagued by injuries. Joey Gallo didn’t hit well after joining the Dodgers and probably won’t be re-signed. Kevin Pillar missed almost the entire season due to a fractured shoulder but might be a better bet to return as a depth option, since he’d only require a minor league contract. Lux, Vargas, and rookie James Outman are other in-house names for at least occasional outfield duty, plus Busch and another top prospect in Andy Pages should get involved in the outfield mix.
Even with all these names available, it seems as if there’s enough instability here that it seems likelier that the Dodgers make a notable outside acquisition to address the outfield rather than the infield, as the infield can be more easily addressed just by “only” exercising Justin Turner’s option. Whether that outside acquisition is a blockbuster like a Judge signing or a major trade, or maybe just more lower-tier moves to add another regular to the lineup, expect Los Angeles to check into all possibilities.
The same can be said about the starting rotation, as again, the Dodgers have some well-regarded prospects in Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot who made their Major League debuts in 2022. Just slotting Grove and Pepiot behind Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin doesn’t leave much depth, however, and L.A. will certainly want more veteran experience in the starting five.
Clayton Kershaw rejoined the Dodgers on a one-year, $17MM free agent contract last season, signing the day after the lockout ended. Kershaw said he took the time provided by the lockout to both heal up some injuries and consider his future, and the result was an excellent (if injury-shortened) 2022 campaign. Even as Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and health questions may limit him to around the 124 innings he has averaged over the last two seasons, Kershaw has still looked like one of the league’s best pitchers when he’s on the mound. Barring a change of heart, Kershaw looks like a good bet to return to action in 2023, and will almost certainly do so either with the Dodgers or perhaps his hometown Rangers (who have big need in the rotation and a lot of money to offer).
Re-signing Kershaw would check off one major box for the Dodgers’ offseason, but they also have to address the potential losses of Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. Two lower-cost free agent signings from the 2021-22 offseason, Anderson pitched so well that he made the All-Star team and made himself a borderline qualifying-offer candidate, while Heaney missed time with shoulder problems but still contributed a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 innings.
Heaney’s injuries might increase chances of a return to Los Angeles, as he might not require a multi-year contract, and the Dodgers could use Pepiot and Grove as backup plans if Heaney has to miss more time. One would imagine L.A. would also want to retain Anderson given how he broke out in Dodger Blue, but the Dodgers might also prefer to look for “the next” Tyler Anderson, i.e. another relatively inexpensive veteran who might blossom under the watch of pitching coach Mark Prior.
Between finding these hidden gems and their ability to draft and develop homegrown pitching talent, the Dodgers have been able to field a consistently strong rotation despite numerous injuries (such as the Tommy John surgery that will likely keep Walker Buehler sidelined until 2024) and off-the-field issues like Trevor Bauer’s suspension. That said, Los Angeles always seems to be an arm or two short heading into the playoffs, as injuries have often forced the Dodgers to reshuffle both their rotation and bullpen, sometimes with disastrous consequences.
As such, it is certainly possible that the Dodgers could bolster this group with a pitcher who provides more durability than Kershaw or Heaney, and has more of an established track record than the rookies. The free agent market offers several major names, and while there aren’t a ton of clubs with enough quality pitching to offer in trades, the Marlins do fit that description, and L.A. had some interest in right-hander Pablo Lopez at the deadline. The Dodgers have the prospect depth to at least start a conversation about any pitcher in trade talks, though some possibilities are more realistic than others — for instance, even though the Angels’ possible sale has cast a lot of uncertainty over the franchise, it is hard to imagine the Angels dealing Shohei Ohtani to their local rivals.
Turning to the bullpen, the Dodgers figure to have some interest in re-signing Tommy Kahnle or deadline pickup Chris Martin, even though the current relief corps is pretty deep. The biggest question is at the back of the bullpen, as it doesn’t look like saves leader Craig Kimbrel is in the team’s plans. Kimbrel was removed from the closer’s job and wasn’t even included on the Dodgers’ NLDS roster following a season that saw him post a 3.75 ERA over 60 innings, with a lot of walks and hard contact allowed, plus a drop in his usually-elite strikeout rate.
If Los Angeles doesn’t adopt a closer committee or turn to one of its in-house options as a top choice for the ninth inning, Edwin Diaz is the top closer available in free agency if the Dodgers wanted to splurge. Such names as David Robertson or Taylor Rogers might hold some interest for the L.A. front office, and while a reunion with Kenley Jansen is possible, it might be a little unusual to see Jansen return to the Dodgers a year after they were comfortable in letting him depart to join the Braves.
Then again, pretty much anything is on the table for a creative front office that has money to spend and prospects to trade, so another active offseason awaits for the Dodgers. Any number of headline-grabbing moves are possible, as well as less-heralded transactions (like obtaining Thompson or Yency Almonte) that end up paying big dividends during the season.
MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners
Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.
Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.
Here are the full list of winners:
American League
Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)
Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)
First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)
Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)
Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)
Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)
Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)
Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)
Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection
Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)
National League
Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win
Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection
Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)
First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)
Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)
Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win
Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)
Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)
Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection
Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)
Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection
Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)
Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection
Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)
Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)