Dodgers, Cody Bellinger Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers and Cody Bellinger agreed to a one-year, $16.1MM contract ahead of today’s arbitration deadline, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Bellinger made $11.5MM last season, a record amount for a player in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras. As a Super-Two player, Bellinger has two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before his potential free agency following the 2023 season.
Bellinger’s record salary last season came on the heels of a National League MVP season in which he produced a .305/.406/.629 slash line and 7.1 bWAR. While his Dodgers got over the hump to win the World Series this season, Bellinger posted a mere mortal .239/.333/.455 line at the plate during the regular season. Despite seeing a year-over-year drop from 162 wRC+ to 114 wRC+ this season, the Dodgers saw fit to reward Bellinger with a sizable raise regardless. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Bellinger would have received an arbitration award somewhere between $11.5MM and $15.9MM. The model based on 2020’s numbers alone was definitely too conservative, as he was going to get a raise of some sort, but it’s still interesting to see the Dodgers agree to a number beyond even our highest projection.
While Bellinger’s offensive numbers may have been down, he remained as central as ever to the Dodgers’ efforts. The 25-year-old led all of baseball with eight outs above average while manning centerfield for the Dodgers, which the Dodgers certainly could include in their valuation of Bellinger, even if arbitration panels don’t typically overly weigh defensive metrics such as OAA.
Dodgers To Sign Enny Romero To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers will sign southpaw Enny Romero to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, per Hector Gómez of Z101 Sports (via Twitter).
Romero hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2018, though he appeared in 137 games and logged 146 innings from 2013 to 2018. He will be 30-years-old at the start of the 2021 season, with an outside shot at seeing time with the World Champions. With pitcher workloads down across the sport in 2020, this season may require teams to lean on unprecedented depth, giving a comeback arm like Romero a greater chance than usual to carve out a role.
Signed by the Rays out of the Dominican Republic, Romero first appeared in the Majors with Tampa in 2013. With the Rays, Nationals, Pirates, and Royals, Romero owns a 5.12 ERA/4.30 FIP with a 23.4 percent strikeout rate, 11.1 percent walk rate, and 40.5 groundball rate for his career. In his heyday, Romero flashed a plus heater with good spin that could reach triple-digits and consistently miss bats, though his velocity dropped to an average of 95 mph the last time he took the hill in 2018.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21
The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.
We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.
I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.
Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)
- Rockies outfielder Raimel Tapia avoided arbitration with a $1.95MM deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The team also reached an agreement for $805K with reliever Robert Stephenson, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Tigers have deals with infielder Jeimer Candelario ($2.85MM), outfielder JaCoby Jones ($2.65MM) and righty Jose Cisnero ($970K), Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays.
- The Yankees and reliever Chad Green settled for $2.15MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
- The Marlins and lefty Richard Bleier have a deal for $1.425MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
- The Dodgers reached a $3.6MM settlement with lefty Julio Urias, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Angels announced a deal with righty Dylan Bundy for $8.325MM.
- The Tigers and southpaw Matthew Boyd have settled for $6.5MM, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets.
- The Yankees have deals with catcher Gary Sanchez ($6.35MM), first baseman Luke Voit ($4.7MM), third baseman Gio Urshela ($4.65MM), shortstop Gleyber Torres ($4MM) and outfielder Clint Frazier ($2.1MM), per Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
- The Rays and outfielder Manuel Margot avoided arbitration with a $3.4MM agreement, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Padres and outfielder Tommy Pham have a deal for $8.9MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Reliever Dan Altavilla settled for $850K, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets.
- The Angels and righty Felix Pena have come to terms for $1.1MM, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers have reached a $4.575MM agreement, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
- The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo have come to a $4.7MM agreement, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets.
- The Reds and righty Luis Castillo have settled for $4.2MM, Robert Murray of FanSided relays.
- The Rays reached a $2.25MM agreement with infielder Joey Wendle and a $1.175MM settlement with righty Yonny Chirinos, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
- The Cardinals and flamethrowing reliever Jordan Hicks have an agreement for $862,500, according to Heyman.
- The White Sox and ace Lucas Giolito avoided arbitration with a $4.15MM agreement, James Fegan of The Athletic reports.
- The Pirates and righty Joe Musgrove have reached an agreement for $4.45MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. They also made deals with second/baseman outfielder Adam Frazier ($4.3MM), third baseman Colin Moran ($2.8MM) righty Chad Kuhl ($2.13MM) and lefty Steven Brault ($2.05MM), per reports from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Adam Berry of MLB.com.
- Hard-throwing right-hander Reyes Moronta agreed to a $695K deal with the Giants after missing the 2020 season due to shoulder surgery, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- The Tigers agreed to a $2.1MM deal with infielder Niko Goodrum, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided. They also inked lefty Daniel Norris for a $3.475MM salary, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Pirates agreed to a $1.3MM deal with catcher Jacob Stallings and a $1.1MM deal with righty Chris Stratton, per Robert Murray of Fansided (Twitter links).
- Athletics right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a $912,500 salary for the 2021 season, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- Right-hander Richard Rodriguez and the Pirates agreed to a $1.7MM deal, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Catcher Jorge Alfaro and the Marlins agreed to a $2.05MM deal, tweets Craig Mish of SportsGrid.
- The Reds agreed to a $2.2MM deal with right-hander Tyler Mahle, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. Cincinnati also signed lefty Amir Garrett for $1.5MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
- The Indians agreed to a $2.4MM deal with newly acquired shortstop Amed Rosario and a $975K deal with righty Phil Maton, tweets Zack Meisel of The Athletic.
- The Tigers and righty Buck Farmer settled at $1.85MM, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Marlins agreed to a $1.9MM deal with right-handed reliever Yimi Garcia, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
Dodgers, Dylan Floro Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers and right-handed reliever Dylan Floro have avoided arbitration with a $975K agreement, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. MLBTR projected that Floro would make anywhere from $900K to $1.2MM in arbitration.
[RELATED: MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker]
Floro, a 13th-round pick of the Rays in 2012, bounced around among a few teams earlier in his career before finding a home in Los Angeles. The Dodgers first acquired Floro on waivers from the Cubs in 2017, but they lost him when the Reds claimed him before the 2018 season. However, LA re-acquired Floro from Cincinnati in a July 2018 trade that has paid off for the Dodgers.
As a member of the Dodgers, Floro has managed a 3.10 ERA/3.68 SIERA in 98 2/3 innings, thanks in no small part to an ability to induce grounders (52.7 percent) and limit walks (7.1 percent). He posted a 2.59 ERA with career bests in grounders (56 percent) and walks (4.1 percent) in 24 1/3 frames last year.
Dodgers, Corey Knebel Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with right-hander Corey Knebel, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $5.25MM, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). It’s a slight bump from last year’s $5.125MM salary for the Excel Sports client. This is Knebel’s final year of arbitration eligibility, as he’ll be a free agent following the 2021 campaign.
[Related: MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker]
Los Angeles acquired Knebel, 29, from the Brewers in a buzzer-beating trade before MLB’s tender deadline earlier in the offseason. Milwaukee had been set to non-tender Knebel before finding a last-minute taker in the Dodgers, who agreed to send a player to be named later in return. Minor league lefty Leo Crawford was traded to the Brewers once the Rule 5 Draft had passed, completing the deal.
Knebel struggled in 2020, his first season back after undergoing Tommy John surgery in early 2019. Beyond an unsightly 6.08 ERA in 13 1/3 innings, there were plenty of red flags for Knebel in 2020 — most notably a 94.4 mph average fastball velocity that sat three miles per hour shy of its 2017 peak. However, Knebel’s velocity ticked upward late in the season, which could have been enough to give the Dodgers hope that he’ll regain some of the life on his heater next year when he’s another season removed from surgery.
From 2017-18 with the Brewers, Knebel racked up 55 saves while pitching to a 2.54 ERA and identical 2.54 SIERA over the course of 131 1/3 innings. Along the way he emerged as one of the game’s premier strikeout artists, punching out a ridiculous 40.2 percent of the hitters he faced. With the Dodgers, he’ll join a late-inning mix featuring Kenley Jansen, young flamethrower Brusdar Graterol and the recently re-signed Blake Treinen.
Pitching Notes: Soria, Zimmermann, Sale, Price, LeBlanc
It seems veteran hurler Joakim Soria is drawing quite a lot of interest from the American League West. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Angels, Astros, Athletics, and Rangers are all pursuing Soria to some degree. Of course, most teams could stand to add an experienced late-inning reliever coming off of a quality season, so it stands to reason that just about every club in a competitive division would give a look. Soria, 36, registered a strong 2.82 ERA last year in Oakland, though that’s hardly a determinative measure on its own for a reliever in a shortened season. The well-traveled hurler managed only a 9.6% swinging-strike rate, his lowest in quite some time, and suddenly shifted to being a heavy flyball pitcher (though he wasn’t punished with many home runs in the short sample).
More from the pitching market:
- After wrapping up a greatly disappointing tenure with the Tigers, Jordan Zimmermann is taking quite a different free agent journey than his first one. It’s fair to wonder whether he’d consider retiring, but the 34-year-old tells MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link) that he’s instead preparing for another campaign. Zimmermann is sure to draw interest, but not on a guaranteed big-league pact. He has largely been ineffective since coming to Detroit five seasons back and is now also recovering from a forearm injury.
- The Red Sox could soon get a good sense of the return timeline for star lefty Chris Sale. Per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter), Sale is expected to throw from a mound at some point in the next two weeks or so — if all goes as planned. It’s promising that he’s already nearing that milestone, having undergone his Tommy John procedure at the end of March of 2020. It is hard to imagine that Sale will be ready for the start of the season, but perhaps he could resume competitive pitching relatively early in the 2021 campaign.
- Also on his way back is Sale’s former teammate David Price. He posted a video on Twitter showing that he’s hard at work preparing for the upcoming season. The Dodgers will surely be interested to see how the ball is coming out of the once-great lefty’s hand after a long respite. Price, who was acquired in a blockbuster nearly one year ago, has yet to take the ball with his new team. He opted out of the 2020 season.
- Teams looking for a spot starter and long reliever will soon have another option to consider. Southpaw Wade LeBlanc is still plugging away despite suffering a tough elbow injury last year. Per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link), LeBlanc is in good enough form that he’s now preparing for a showcase. LeBlanc posted a resurgent 2018 season but has struggled more recently, so he’s sure to land a non-guaranteed deal when he does sign.
Latest On DJ LeMahieu’s Market
The stalemate between the Yankees and DJ LeMahieu isn’t showing any signs of ending, and it may have opened the door for other teams to re-enter the hunt. According to Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown, LeMahieu has “asked his representatives to re-engage with teams that have previously shown the most interest…and to reconnect with teams that reached out early in the free agent period.”
This group includes at least six teams — the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox. The Astros and (maybe?) the Nationals were also linked to LeMahieu earlier this winter, so it’s fair to assume some new calls may have been placed to those teams. Of the six clubs cited, it was already known that the Mets, Dodgers, and Jays were in on LeMahieu, with Toronto mentioned as the batting champion’s most fervent suitor apart from the Yankees.
This is the first time, however, that the Red Sox, Braves, and Cardinals have been linked to LeMahieu, opening up an intriguing new set of possibilities. All three teams were among those who had the early interest in LeMahieu, however, so it could be that those were simply due diligence check-ins, or plans may have changed as the winter market has developed. That said, due to some feeling earlier in the offseason that a LeMahieu/Yankees reunion was inevitable, more teams may now make a more serious push if they have a sense that LeMahieu may actually sign elsewhere.
Not much seems to have changed with LeMahieu’s asking price, as Brown reports that LeMahieu is looking for “at least” five years and $110MM. Previous reports indicated a similar price from LeMahieu’s camp, with the Yankees’ top offer apparently falling short by more than $25MM. The Cardinals may not be willing to spend much this offseason. The Braves could be in somewhat of the same situation after already investing in Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, though Atlanta has a lot of salary coming off the books following the 2021 season. Boston has the spending capacity but the team wasn’t thought to be shopping at the top of the free agent market this winter, in part because signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like LeMahieu would cost a draft pick.
The acquisition of Francisco Lindor might also take the Mets out of the LeMahieu hunt, and longtime Dodger Justin Turner has been cited as Los Angeles’ top choice to handle third base (even if Turner’s ask for a four-year contract is very likely to go unfulfilled). It isn’t known what Toronto’s top offer to LeMahieu is or was, but since the Jays are reportedly willing to give a similar contract to George Springer, they could pivot by putting that offer on the table for LeMahieu.
Several virtual meetings are planned between LeMahieu and various teams over the coming week, Brown writes, so we could have more clarity on the All-Star’s situation soon. At this juncture, it’s hard to say where LeMahieu might end up, or if perhaps other mystery teams could emerge. Of course, LeMahieu could also wind up with the Yankees after all, if New York feels it needs to increase its offer in response to any additional pressure from one or more clubs.
Tommy Lasorda Passes Away
In sad news, the Dodgers announced this morning that Hall of Fame manager Tommy Lasorda passed away last night. He was 93 years old.
“In a franchise that has celebrated such great legends of the game, no one who wore the uniform embodied the Dodger spirit as much as Tommy Lasorda,” president and CEO Stan Kasten said in a statement. “A tireless spokesman for baseball, his dedication to the sport and the team he loved was unmatched. He was a champion who at critical moments seemingly willed his teams to victory. The Dodgers and their fans will miss him terribly. Tommy is quite simply irreplaceable and unforgettable.”
A franchise icon, Lasorda began a brief playing career with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1954. While he didn’t find much success as an MLB player, that experience kicked off an association with the Dodger organization that would last 71 years. After his playing career ended, Lasorda served as a scout and manager in the Dodgers’ farm system. He became a member of the MLB coaching staff in 1973 and took over as manager near the end of the 1976 season.
That began one of the most decorated managerial careers in MLB history. Lasorda immediately led the Dodgers to back-to-back pennants in 1977-78. Both those teams lost to the Yankees in the World Series, but Lasorda would guide the Dodgers to a pair of championships in the following decade (in 1981 and 1988). He remained the Los Angeles skipper for an incredible twenty seasons, before stepping aside midway through the 1996 campaign due to health concerns. Even after Lasorda’s managerial tenure ended, he remained inextricably linked with the organization. As the Dodgers note in their press release, he had spent the past fourteen years as a special advisor.
Lasorda also managed the Gold Medal-winning 2000 United States Olympic team in Sydney. He was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1997. MLBTR joins the Dodgers in sending our condolences to Lasorda’s family and countless friends and fans throughout the sport.
Dodgers Bullpen Rumors: Hendriks, Yates
The Dodgers were in pursuit of free-agent reliever Liam Hendriks earlier this offseason, but that interest “has recently dissipated,” Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes. While Hendriks is viewed as the best reliever available on the open market, the former Athletics closer reportedly wants a four-year contract, and the Dodgers aren’t willing to sign him to that long of a deal, according to Castillo.
Although Hendriks appears to be out of the mix for Los Angeles, the reigning World Series champions do have other high-end relievers on their radar. Along with the previously reported Brad Hand, the Dodgers are eyeing right-hander Kirby Yates, per Castillo, who adds that they “have significant interest in him.” Yates shouldn’t cost as much as Hendriks or Hand, having missed almost all of last season with elbow problems, but the ex-Padres standout could be a relatively low-risk, high-reward pickup for any team that signs him. After all, the 33-year-old is just two seasons removed from posting a ridiculous 1.19 ERA with a 41.6 percent strikeout rate and a 5.3 percent walk rate over 60 2/3 innings. Yates also saved a National League-high 41 games in 44 chances that year.
A Yates signing for the Dodgers would be somewhat similar to 2020 additions such as Blake Treinen and Jake McGee, in that they’d be landing a proven reliever whose stock isn’t at an all-time high on a short-term pact. Both signings worked out well for LA last season, and the team was so impressed with Treinen’s work that it brought him back on a two-year, $17.5MM guarantee in free agency.
Dodgers Focused On Right-Handed Hitting Infielders
From the outside looking in, the Dodgers have clearly prioritized their bullpen this winter: trading for Corey Knebel, re-resigning Blake Treinen, signing injured Tommy Kahnle to a two-year deal. Behind the scenes, however, their offseason efforts have focused on finding a right-handed hitting infielder, writes the Athletic’s Jim Bowden.
On its face, this tracks. They have a need: right-handed infielders Justin Turner and Kiké Hernández are free agents, and of their remaining infielders, only Chris Taylor bats from the right side. Additionally, reports place right-handed infielders firmly in their sights. We know they’re making a run at DJ LeMahieu, one of the top right-handed infielders in the game period, and on the trade front, everyone and their mother seems to thinks Nolan Arenado is destined for the Dodgers (except – and this seems relevant – the Rockies).
But it’s somewhat maddening that the Dodgers haven’t just brought Turner back. He’s been the face of the franchise, a fan favorite, a clutch and steadying presence, and a hugely productive producer over his seven years with the team. This is circumstantial and narrative, but it’s a fact nevertheless: So long as the Turner has been at the hot corner in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have won the division every year.
Together, Los Angeles and Turner just won the first World Series of this long and dynastic era of Dodger baseball. The economic landscape in the game is strained, but this is the Dodgers, and they just won the World Series, and they need a right-handed infielder: make the deal, right?
Besides, he’s from Long Beach, he went to high school in Lakewood and college in Fullerton. Turner and L.A. is a proven fit.
The Dodgers, however, aren’t quite so sentimental. Turner might not be either. He’s reportedly seeking a four-year deal, which is a non-starter for a 36-year-old. For the Dodgers, a reunion with Turner is a no-brainer under the assumption that they can get him on a short-term deal. Four years isn’t going to happen.
Many in the industry project Turner as a candidate for rapid decline. Bowden writes, “Turner is now 36 years old and the analytics scream that his performance decline is at the high-risk level.” He’s not alone in anticipating a downturn in performance.
Turner’s whiff rate on fastballs jumped from 15.4 percent to 20.4 percent, and that’s a concern. Turner’s .153 ISO was his lowest isolated power mark since his first season in Los Angeles – and it wasn’t close. There was some slippage defensively – his success rate fell from 90% in 2019 to 84% in 2020 – though Statcast’s estimated marks suggest a less precipitous decline from 89 percent to 87 percent. Another point for the detractors, Turner runs less well than ever, finishing in the 18th percentile by sprint speed, down from 33rd percentile in 2019 and the 43rd percentile in 2018.
To soften the blow, one might consider that if the worst part of his game – which has never been an asset – is the biggest area of concern, then the alarm bells might be premature. Of course, none of that changes the fact that he’s entering his age-36 season. In the end, decline comes for everyone.
There’s plenty of cause to be bullish on Turner, however, beginning with his 140 wRC+ in 2020. His 10.3 percent walk rate was right around league average and the third-best mark of his career. He put the ball in play with an excellent 14.9 percent strikeout rate.
Not only was he putting the ball in play, but he wasn’t making cheap contact. His exit velocity in 2020 exactly matched his mark from 2019. His 44 percent hard hit percentage was a career high. His 11.2 percent barrel rate set a career high by a margin of 2.4 percent, trouncing the MLB average of 6.4 percent.
Lastly, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it’s safe to assume he’s in the 98th percentile both for beard length and fullness. Not to mention, baseball-wise, he finished in the 95th percentile for xwOBA.
On the other hand, LeMahieu is very good, and if they can add him to Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor in the infield, that’s something the Dodgers have to consider. There are other options on the free agent market as well, though not a ton that hit from the right side. Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Jonathan Villar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jurickson Profar, and Marwin Gonzalez are switch-hitters who could fill Kiké’s role. Only Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien really fit the right-handed hitting infielder mold the Dodgers’ seek.
With a payroll near $198MM, the Dodgers’ have a decent chance to exceed the luxury tax mark of $210MM, and that’s a line they’ve avoided in recent years. Turner should definitely keep them closer to the line than LeMahieu. But if the difference is marginal – say, $25MM AAV versus $20MM AAV – then it’s hard to argue against pursuing the current American League batting champion, even if Turner does rake again in 2021.