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6 NL West Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our preseason series focusing on notable hitters and pitchers hoping to rebound from less-than-ideal 2019 outings wraps up in the National League West. We’ll start with six hitters who enjoyed productive 2018 campaigns before falling short last season…

Manny Machado, 3B, Padres:

By no means did the 27-year-old Machado perform poorly in 2019, his first season as a Padre. He just didn’t offer the type of production the team likely expected when it signed him to a then-record free-agent contract worth $300MM over 10 years. Whereas the four-time All-Star thrived with the Orioles and Dodgers the year before he joined the Friars, he has been more good than great in San Diego so far. Across 661 trips to the plate last season, Machado batted .256/.334/.462 – enough for a 108 wRC+ (he was at 131 in 2018). He did mash 32 home runs and finish in the majors’ 87th percentile in average exit velocity, but Machado struck out in nearly 5 percent more plate appearances compared to 2018. Furthermore, according to Statcast, Machado’s hard-hit percentage fell by just over 4 percent.

Jurickson Profar, 2B, Padres:

The former can’t-miss prospect finally looked to be turning a corner at the major league level in 2018, his last year with the Rangers. Unfortunately, though, Profar’s output tanked in his lone season with the Athletics in 2019. The 27-year-old switch-hitter could only muster a .218/.301/.410 line (89 wRC+) and 1.3 fWAR in 518 PA, and Statcast rated him near the bottom of the league in several important metrics. As a second baseman, Profar garnered all negative reviews (minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-3 Outs Above Average, minus-1 Ultimate Zone Rating). Still, the Padres are taking a chance on a bounce-back year for Profar, whom they acquired in a winter trade. The move reunited him with ex-Rangers executive and current Padres general manager A.J. Preller.

David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks:

Peralta had a terrific year in 2018, smacking 31 home runs and accounting for 3.9 fWAR, but a nagging right shoulder injury prevented him from a proper encore last season. The 32-year-old wound up with just 12 homers in 423 plate appearances, in which he registered an overall line barely above average (.275/.343/.461 – good for a 107 wRC+), saw his isolated power number fall by 37 points and his expected weighted on-base average plummet by 49 points. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are giving Peralta the benefit of the doubt, evidenced by the two-year, $22MM extension they handed him in January.

Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants:

Crawford entered last year with six straight seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR, but he dropped to 0.4 in that category in 2019. Crawford hit just .228/.304/.350 (74 wRC+) in 560 PA, and even his well-regarded defense declined. For the first time in his career, the 33-year-old graded negatively in both DRS (minus-4) and UZR (minus-0.4). Not reassuring for the Giants, who still owe Crawford $30MM through 2021.

Enrique Hernandez, UTIL, Dodgers:

The versatile Hernandez was quite effective in 2018, during which he posted 3.2 fWAR, but that number checked in at a far less impressive 1.2 last season. The problem? A massive decline in offensive production. Hernandez’s wRC+ (88) represented a 30-point fall, while his OPS (.715; .237/.304/.411) lost 91 points. It didn’t help that Hernandez endured a 4-plus percent increase in strikeouts and a 3 percent decrease in walks.

Daniel Murphy, 1B, Rockies:

Count Murphy as another recent free-agent signing gone awry for the Rockies, who inked him to a two-year, $24MM contract in December 2019. Year 1, perhaps the weakest offensive season of his career, couldn’t have gone much worse for Murphy. The 34-year-old ’s .279/.328/.452 line doesn’t look terrible on paper, but when adjusted for ballpark, it only amounted to a wRC+ of 86. Murphy also had a miserable season in terms of Statcast output and recorded a negative fWAR (minus-0.2) for the first time ever.

Latest On MLB, Coronavirus

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11:10am: Teams throughout the league have been sending scouts home this morning, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that “just about every team, if not every team” has taken this step. Meanwhile, in an unlocked article that is not behind the web site’s paywall, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal runs through several potential pandemic-related issues and courses of action for the league.

As for any actual action from the league, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that the league is likely to provide some clarity today. At this point, it feels inevitable that the league will make a statement on the status of Spring Training games and the regular season in the very near future.

1:55am: The coronavirus outbreak led the National Basketball Association to suspend its season on Wednesday. It’s unclear how Major League Baseball will react before its regular season is scheduled to begin March 26, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that the pandemic will have a sizable effect on its plans.

It’s possible, for instance, that some of the league’s teams will start 2020 by playing regular-season games outside of their normal home venues. That already seems to be the case for the Mariners, who are “likely” to host their season-opening series in the Phoenix area instead of in Seattle, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com. But they may not be the only club in that situation. The state of California has recommended limiting public gatherings to 250 people for the rest of March, which means the Dodgers, Padres and Athletics could either play their initial series elsewhere or have those sets postponed, Passan tweets. All three of those teams are scheduled to play at home until early April.

For now, MLB executives aren’t slated to discuss how they’ll proceed until a Friday conference call, per Passan. However, with the NBA shutting itself down and the National Hockey League possibly poised to make a similar announcement on Thursday, perhaps MLB will reach a decision on how it will move forward sooner than expected. The hope is that the league will come up with a plan “within days,” three high-level team officials told Passan.

West Notes: Mariners, Giants, Dodgers

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A few items from the game’s West divisions:

  • The Mariners are scheduled to start their season at home March 26 against the Rangers, but it’s possible that series (and perhaps some ensuing sets) will take place outside of Seattle. With the coronavirus outbreak taking a toll on Seattle, the Mariners might temporarily play regular-season home games at their spring training facility in Arizona, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports (subscription link). That scenario could become more likely on Wednesday, when Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is expected to restrict all gatherings of 250-plus people in Seattle and other areas in the state, according to the Seattle Times. It’s unknown how long that restriction will last, but with just over two weeks left until the M’s season starts, there seems to be a growing likelihood that they’ll host their opener away from T-Mobile Park.
  • Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi shed some light Tuesday on the team’s spring roster battles, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. Tyler Beede was a strong contender for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation, but now that he’s dealing with a flexor strain, the competition is down to Logan Webb, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Cahill and Trevor Oaks. Any of them could take the ball April 7 – the first time the Giants will need a No. 5 starter. Meanwhile, there could be a rotating bunch of players in center field, Shea writes. That may affect the picture at the keystone; among the Giants’ current second base options (Mauricio Dubon, Yolmer Sanchez and Donovan Solano), “Dubon is best suited to go out to the outfield,” Zaidi observes. Dubon’s versatility could lead to a season-opening roster spot for Sanchez, a 2019 Gold Glove winner whom the Giants signed to a minor league contract in the offseason.
  • He wasn’t considered a legitimate prospect at this point a year ago, but now the Dodgers are of the belief that minor league utility player Zach McKinstry will turn into a contributor at the MLB level this season, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes. A 33rd-round pick in 2016, McKinstry put himself on the map in 2019 with excellent production at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, leading the Dodgers to add the 24-year-old to their 40-man roster in November. The multi-positional McKinstry has continued to impress team brass this spring, notes Castillo, who adds that he could become the Dodgers’ latest Chris Taylor or Enrique Hernandez type. “He can play anywhere on the diamond, he’s an intelligent player,” manager Dave Roberts told Castillo. “He conducts really good at-bats. He’s a guy that I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw him sometime this year.”

Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Mondesi, Dodgers

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We’ll round up the latest health news from around MLB on this Sunday morning.

  • Blake Snell will return to spring training action Monday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A bullpen session Friday went according to plan, Topkin adds, so the Rays feel comfortable allowing the 2018 AL Cy Young winner to begin building up innings in-game. It’s possible Snell won’t quite be ready for Opening Day, but it seems the cortisone shot he received in his throwing elbow last week isn’t indicative of any long-term issue.
  • Indians’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed recently by “mild elbow inflammation,” tweets MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. At this point, the club doesn’t consider the issue a great concern, Bell adds. A full, healthy season from Carrasco would certainly be a plus for Cleveland, who has traded away Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in the past calendar year and saw Mike Clevinger go down for the season’s first month-plus with a partial meniscus tear.
  • Royals’ shortstop Adalberto Mondesi has yet to make his spring training debut thanks to the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. His rehab was “paused” recently due to some soreness, manager Mike Matheny told reporters (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com), but a visit Friday with his surgeon confirmed Mondesi is on schedule in his recovery. Kansas City continues to hold out hope the talented 24-year-old will be able to return by Opening Day.
  • Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register has the latest on a few Dodgers’ health situations. Mookie Betts has missed a few games of action with food poisoning, but he could return to the lineup Monday, manager Dave Roberts tells Plunkett. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson will make his first spring training start in minor-league camp today as he recovers from a hip injury, while right-hander Jimmy Nelson is set for a bullpen session. Nelson was briefly shut down with groin discomfort two weeks ago.

Quick Hits: Maeda, Dodgers, Angels, Cards, Royals

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The Dodgers dealt Kenta Maeda to the Twins last month, after which the right-hander seemingly indicated that he asked for a trade out of the Los Angeles organization. However, that’s not what happened, according to Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). While Maeda did make it known to the Dodgers he prefers to start (they often used him as a reliever from 2018-19), Friedman insists there was no trade request when the two met last season. “I saw the headline and then we had someone actually listen to it. And he didn’t in that meeting demand anything and nor did he actually say he did in that interview,” Friedman stated. For their part, the Dodgers didn’t enter the offseason planning to move Maeda, per Friedman, but they pulled the trigger when the Twins offered a Brusdar Graterol-led package. Maeda, meanwhile, will now have an opportunity to return to being a full-time starter in Minnesota.

  • The Angels fired visiting clubhouse manager Brian Harkins on Thursday amid allegations that he provided “illegal substances” to help opposing pitchers grip the ball better, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports. The news did not come as a surprise to the Angels, per Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register. “I think everybody knows that most guys are doing it,” left-hander Andrew Heaney said. “I don’t think it’s that surprising for anybody who knows baseball.” Pitching coach Mickey Callaway told Fletcher he expects Major League Baseball to ban hurlers from using pine tar and other such substances, but he believes it could have a detrimental effect because they help pitchers’ control – especially in cold conditions. “If I were a hitter, I’d be scared to dig into the box in Detroit on April 10,” he said. Manager Joe Maddon also weighed in, saying pitchers have been using substances to better their grip for “as long as I’ve been in baseball.” Maddon wonders whether MLB will eventually have to make changes to the ball, as the current one has become slicker.
  • Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez has been a starter for most of his career, but shoulder issues helped force the hard-throwing 28-year-old to their bullpen last season. He’s now back in the Cardinals’ rotation, though, and is showing off his old form this spring, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch observes.  “Everything’s been really good,” manager Mike Shildt said after Martinez threw five scoreless innings against Washington on Thursday. “That was a pretty dramatic display of, ‘Hey, I’m a starter.’ He’s established himself, for sure.”  Martinez has been quite successful in a starting role, having recorded a 3.38 ERA/3.61 FIP in 712 1/3 innings from the Cardinals’ rotation. The reigning NL Central champions would surely be pleased if he can offer similar production this season, especially with fellow righty Miles Mikolas set to miss the beginning of the year with an elbow injury.
  • There is a growing likelihood that the Royals will use first basemen Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan McBroom in “a soft platoon” to open the season, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes. As we touched on Friday, the left-handed O’Hearn is seeking a bounce-back year after logging horrid production in 2019. The right-handed McBroom was better with the Royals last year in his first season in the majors, hitting .293/.361/.350. However, it was only an 83-plate appearance sample, in which McBroom failed to hit a home run, struck out over 30 percent of the time and was the beneficiary of an unsustainable .440 batting average on balls in play. To his credit, though, McBroom thrived as a Yankees farmhand last season in Triple-A ball, where he slashed .315/.402/.574 and slugged 26 homers in 482 PA.

Injury Notes: Mercado, Robles, Brigham, Ginn

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Some updates on injuries from around baseball, including an unfortunate blow for one of the nation’s top draft prospects:

  • Indians’ outfielder Oscar Mercado left this afternoon’s spring training game with a sprained left wrist, per reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com). He’ll be evaluated tomorrow, Bell adds. The 25-year-old is perhaps the best player in an uncertain Cleveland outfield mix. If the injury were to affect Mercado’s availability in the season’s early going, it’s likely Terry Francona would turn center field over to Delino DeShields, Jr. Acquired from the Rangers in this offseason’s Corey Kluber swap, DeShields is a high-quality defender and baserunner, but his bat has never come around at the MLB level. He hit just .249/.325/.347 (72 wRC+) with Texas last year, significantly worse than Mercado’s .269/.318/.443 (95 wRC+) line.
  • Another speedster, Nationals’ center fielder Víctor Robles, has been working back from an injury of his own. Fortunately, the outlook seems promising. The 22-year-old is swinging without pain, manager Dave Martinez tells reporters (including Jessica Camerato of MLB.com). Robles is still feeling some soreness in his oblique while throwing and running, though, so the club is understandably playing things cautiously. One of the game’s best defensive outfielders, Robles hit a passable .255/.326/.419 (91 wRC+) in his first full MLB season in 2019.
  • Marlins’ reliever Jeff Brigham is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He’s dealing with a right biceps issue that has thus far kept him from ramping up his throwing program. The 28-year-old logged only a 4.46 ERA with average strikeout (24.2%) and walk (8.7%) rates in 32 appearances last season. However, the former Dodger farmhand averaged 96.6 MPH on his heater with significant fastball and slider spin. That quality stuff helps to explain the Marlins’ decision to keep Brigham on the 40-man roster this winter despite an offseason full of churn in the bullpen.
  • Former Dodgers’ first-rounder J.T. Ginn underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, Mississippi State head coach Chris Lemonis announced. The 30th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Ginn turned down pro ball to head to MSU. The 20-year-old righty shined as a freshman in 2019 and looked to be a potential high draft pick again this June as a draft-eligible sophomore. He’ll still be eligible for the draft, of course, but it’ll be interesting to see if any team would be willing to offer him enough to persuade him against returning to Starkville for his junior season.

Quick Hits: Lindor, Galvis, C. Taylor, Olympics

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As recently as mid-February, Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor called Cleveland “home” and expressed a willingness to stay with the club. No extension has come together yet, but Indians president Chris Antonetti said Tuesday that “neither side has given up trying,” per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. However, Lindor noted he has an “early March” deadline on contract talks, so it appears the Indians are running out of time to lock him up in the near future (if they haven’t already). Odds have long been against the Indians finding a way to keep Lindor from hitting free agency when his team control runs out after 2021, as the 26-year-old is on pace to wind up with one of the largest contracts in the history of the game if and when he reaches the open market.

  • Reds shortstop Freddy Galvis suffered “a quad strain during a baserunning drill,” according to manager David Bell (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Galvis underwent an MRI, but the severity of the injury isn’t known at this time. The Reds looked ripe for an upgrade at short during the offseason, but they instead stuck with Galvis, whom they claimed from Toronto last August and then retained by way of a $5.5MM club option during the winter. Now, if Galvis’ injury is severe enough to cost him regular-season time, it’s unclear who will fill in at short for the Reds. Alex Blandino and Kyle Farmer might be the most logical in-house choices, but neither brings much experience to the table.
  • Dodgers utility player Chris Taylor’s out of action for the moment after taking a pitch off the back of the left shoulder, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. There’s no indication that it’s anything but a minor injury for Taylor, whom a fractured left forearm limited to 124 games in 2019. The versatile Taylor was a highly valuable player for the Dodgers from 2017-18, but his numbers dipped last season during a campaign in which he batted .262/.333/.462 with 1.7 fWAR in 414 plate appearances.
  • Major League Baseball and the MLBPA reached a deal with the world baseball governing body that will allow minor leaguers to participate in this summer’s Olympic Games, the Yonhap News Agency relays. The agreement will give national teams the right to select minor leaguers from MLB teams’ 40-man rosters to participate in the Olympics, but anyone on a 26-man roster will be protected. That means there could be some familiar names to baseball fans in the Olympics, which will include the sport for the first time in 12 years.

Health Notes: Judge, Lowrie, Alvarez, Turner

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Strap in for a very mysterious batch of health updates from spring training…

  • Aaron Judge’s health status seems to be unknown to just about everyone right now. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com spoke today with Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, who said that Judge is going through a “car wash” of tests. “He’s obviously going through a series of tests,” Cashman said. “It’s not like one or two, it’s a number approaching seven to 10 total, so they can make sure they have a full evaluation and determine what ails him. When they’re complete, we’ll either be able to tell you we’re in the clear or we’ll be able to tell you that we have a full diagnosis and the timeframe and everything else like that.” Stay tuned.
  • As if trying to outdo Cashman in providing non-answers, Mets infielder Jed Lowrie gave this update about his own status to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “I have to refer you to the organization.” After referring to the organization via general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, DiComo still got no timeline. Though Van Wagenen did say they are looking into a “transitional” brace to help him get on the field. Lowrie appeared in just nine games for the Mets last year. And it’s unclear if he’ll be able to top that in 2020.
  • Astros outfielder Yordan Álvarez will sit out “three or four days” because of “knee soreness,” according to Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle. Astros manager Dusty Baker says that they’re “going to try to take it easy on him for at least three days.” This is potentially worrying for Astros fans because, as Young notes, Álvarez was playing through similar knee issues last year, although they didn’t stop him from producing Rookie of the Year-winning numbers.
  • And finally, the clearest news of the bunch: Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner was hit by a pitch on the back of his hand, but the X-ray came back negative (Twitter links from Ken Gurnick). If you need any more evidence of Turner being fine, he hit a home run between the HBP and the X-ray.

NL Health Notes: Watson, A. Miller, Freeman, Dodgers

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Giants reliever Tony Watson has been dealing with shoulder tightness this spring, but the left-hander said Monday (via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle), “It’s nothing I’m concerned about.” Watson, who threw his second bullpen session in three days on Monday, expects he’ll be set to go for the beginning of the regular season. However, it’s unknown when he’ll be ready to appear in a spring training game. The 34-year-old’s the elder statesman in a bullpen that has undergone significant changes since last season, when the normally reliable Watson turned in a career-worst campaign. Watson wound up with a 4.17 ERA/4.81 FIP and 6.83 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 over 54 innings, but the Giants still brought him back on a reasonably priced guarantee ($3MM).

Let’s check in on a few more health situations from around the National League…

  • Cardinals southpaw Andrew Miller is having difficulty “getting a feel for the ball,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Nothing “physically hurts,” according to Miller, but Goold writes that he’ll undergo a “battery of exams” to determine what’s troubling him. That’s not the type of news he or the Cardinals wanted entering the second season of a two-year, $25MM contract. The 34-year-old didn’t deliver as hoped in Year 1, as he posted a 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP with 11.52 K/9, 4.45 BB/9 and a 37.2 percent grounder rate in 54 2/3 innings. Miller pitched in 73 games, and with 37 more appearances this year (110 from 2019-20), his $12MM vesting option for 2021 will become guaranteed.
  • Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman has battled some discomfort in his surgically repaired right elbow, but as expected, he appears to be fine. After sitting out of action last week, Freeman returned Monday, saying (per David O’Brien of The Athletic, via Instagram), “I feel great,” and added that he’s not facing any restrictions. That’s excellent for Atlanta, which will likely need yet another outstanding season from Freeman if it’s going to rule the National League East for the third year in a row.
  • The Dodgers have temporarily shut down infield prospect Omar Estevez as a result of soreness in his right (throwing) shoulder, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. Estevez has been in camp this spring as a non-roster invitee. It’s unclear how much time he’ll miss, but it’s the latest injury for a player who sat out roughly two months last season with a hamstring strain. When healthy in 2019, though, Estevez put up nice production in his Double-A debut, batting .291/.352/.431 in 336 plate appearances. He now ranks as Baseball America’s 16th-best Dodgers prospect.

Dodgers Outright Yadier Alvarez

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The Dodgers announced that righty Yadier Alvarez has been outrighted after clearing waivers, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was among those to tweet. He had been designated for assignment recently.

Alvarez lost his 40-man spot after some shoulder issues cropped up. It’s unclear as of yet what his health outlook is. Any injury issues would only add to the slate of challenges facing the youngster, who’ll turn 24 later this week.

Once considered a blue-chip pitching prospect, Alvarez has long dealt with control issues and slid off track in 2019. He only made two appearances last year while struggling with injury and disciplinary issues.

Alvarez has yet to appear in the majors. Based upon the history to this point, it seems unlikely he’ll reward the team for its up-front investment ($16MM, which was effectively doubled by tax obligations). Still, the Dodgers will presumably be glad to have the chance to hang onto the remaining upside in Alvarez’s powerful right arm. Better still, the team can work to get him on track without tying up a roster spot.

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