Dodgers To Make Qualifying Offers To Anderson, Kendrick, Greinke
The Dodgers will make the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to left-hander Brett Anderson, second baseman Howie Kendrick and right-hander Zack Greinke, reports Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles (via Twitter).
Greinke was among the easiest calls for qualifying offers, as the potential NL Cy Young winner is likely to more than double the $71MM that remained on his contract at the time he opted out. Kendrick was a bit less likely, but considering the number of clubs that could look at him as a second base option this winter, a lucrative multi-year deal was likely enough to call the decision widely expected.
Anderson, though, was on the fringes of the potential QO market. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported last month that the plan was to extend him the QO despite his spotty track record of health, and he’ll now be faced with the tough decision of whether to try for the security of a multi-year deal on the open market or the immediate benefit of a $15.8MM salary.
Anderson has youth on his side but threw just over 200 innings combined in the four seasons prior to his most recent 180-inning campaign with the Dodgers. Formerly a top prospect and one of the most promising young arms in baseball, Anderson’s career has been throttled by injuries that have kept him from taking the mound with anything resembling regularity. That changed in 2015, and he led the Majors with a ground-ball rate north of 66 percent when he was finally healthy enough to stick on the field for a full year. He doesn’t miss many bats, but teams in smaller parks or teams that highly value ground-balls will be intrigued by the upside still present in Anderson’s 27-year-old arm.
J.P. Howell To Exercise Player Option
Left-hander J.P. Howell will exercise his $6.25MM player option with the Dodgers, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The 32-year-old Legacy Agency client will forgo free agency this offseason in order to return to the L.A. bullpen for a fourth consecutive season.
Howell is coming off an excellent season in the Dodgers’ bullpen, having logged a 1.43 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 60.3 percent ground-ball rate in 44 innings of work. His strong production continued what has been a dominant run since joining the Dodgers prior to the 2013 season, as Howell has compiled a brilliant 1.97 ERA in his 155 innings with Los Angeles.
That strong track track record makes it at least worth wondering if Howell could’ve landed a multi-year deal in a market that is thin on left-handed relievers with lengthy track records of success — Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp were likely his top competition — but it’s also probably fair to assume that he wouldn’t have received as large of an annual salary. And, there’s something to be said for returning to a familiar situation that has led to personal success and three consecutive division titles for the team.
Howell did have his struggles in 2015, specifically when it came to facing right-handed hitters. While he hadn’t dealt with platoon issues in his two prior years with the Dodgers, right-handed hitters knocked Howell around to the tune of a .318/.368/.455 batting line. Perhaps that split played a role in his decision to accept the option, although there’s certainly a case to be made that it was more a function of poor luck than anything skill-related. Right-handed hitters posted a sky-high .368 BABIP against Howell in 2015 that was worlds higher than his career mark of .293.
Howell’s return to Los Angeles means that he’ll again help serve as a bridge to one of the game’s best closers in the form of Kenley Jansen. Exactly which other names will constitute the back end of the Dodger bullpen is unclear, as the team has myriad options in the late innings. Luis Avilan and Ian Thomas serve as left-handed options to potentially complement Howell, while right-handers such as Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez, Juan Nicasio and Yimi Garcia, among others, could constitute the right-handed setup crew. Of course, given the active nature of president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi, it certainly won’t be surprising to see the Dodgers shuffle their relief corps, to some extent, by dealing some of those arms and possibly bringing in external help in order to solidify a bullpen that is deep in options but lacking in proven arms.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Zack Greinke Opts Out Of Contract
Dodgers righty Zack Greinke has officially opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. The widely-expected move puts him onto the open market as one of the league’s most appealing free agents.
Greinke signed with Los Angeles as a free agent before the 2013 season, locking up a $147MM guarantee over six seasons. That was a nice enough payday as it was, but his representatives at Excel Sports Management were also wise to negotiate a provision allowing the veteran to opt out after the 2015 season. He’ll give up a guarantee of three years and $71MM, but Greinke figures to earn quite a bit more than that on the open market.
While Greinke is now 32 years of age, he’s also coming off of a sublime 2015 campaign. He led the league with a 1.66 ERA over 222 2/3 frames. Greinke retired 8.1 batters per nine via strikeout and induced a 48.0% groundball rate while permitting only 1.6 BB/9 and a league-low 0.844 WHIP.
There were some fortunate elements to Greinke’s campaign, to be sure. He allowed a .228 BABIP, 86.5% strand rate, and 7.3% HR/FB rate, all of which were on the beneficial side as against his career norms. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators did not quite support the incredible run prevention that resulted.
That’s not to take away from Greinke’s accomplishment or his value. He’s long been one of the league’s better pitchers, and always seemed destined to opt out and cash in. But it’s fair to say, too, that he timed his career-best season perfectly.
Heyman’s Latest: Davis, Zobrist, Zunino
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports takes a look at Pete Rose‘s chances for reinstatement in his latest Inside Baseball column. The short version: he has no chance. Heyman has a lot to say on the topic, but it all boils down to a conservative mindset among baseball’s decision makers. While Rose, 74, is relatively harmless, the commissioner’s office won’t take the tiny risk associated with reinstatement. Commissioner Rob Manfred granted Rose a hearing in September and is expected to issue a ruling before the end of the year.
Here’s more from the column:
- Orioles owner Peter Angelos is making a push to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis. The slugger is entering his age 30 season after posting 13 WAR and 126 home runs over the last three seasons. Davis hit .262/.361/.562 last year with 47 home runs. However, he’s sandwiched two superstar campaigns around a replacement level 2014, making him a high risk, high reward target in free agency. Heyman does not expect Davis to sign before talking with other clubs.
- The Royals are unlikely to re-sign Ben Zobrist. The club acquired him to fill in for the injured Alex Gordon, then used him to replace injured Omar Infante. The club’s former second baseman will be back and presumably healthy next season. Zobrist’s defensive profile at second base also leaves something to be desired.
- Marlins manager Don Mattingly hopes to bring pitching coach Rick Honeycutt and coach Tim Wallach with him from the Dodgers. However, L.A. hopes to keep both coaches. Honeycutt is a long standing member of the Dodgers’ coaching staff, but Wallach may search for a new job if he’s passed over for the open manager job.
- Scouts are worried that Mike Zunino may have to overcome a psychological hurdle. He was widely viewed as unready for a promotion to the majors in 2013, and the Mariners have allowed him to scuffle through the last three campaigns. His biggest issue is a 32 percent strikeout rate which has led to a .193/.252/.353 triple-slash.
Cafardo On Kapstein, Amaro, Mattingly, Zobrist, Kapler
In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discussed the role of former Red Sox advisor Jeremy Kapstein. Newly installed club president Dave Dombrowski did not extend Kapstein’s contract. The former player agent had worked with the Red Sox for 14 years as a senior advisor of baseball projects. Kapstein once represented a number of top players and was among the first to use statistics in arbitration cases. He’ll seek a new role elsewhere.
Here’s more from the column:
- Freshly minted first base and outfield coach Ruben Amaro Jr. is already familiar with many of Boston’s outfielders. While with the Phillies, he pursued Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and prospect Manuel Margot in trade negotiations for Cole Hamels. Former Phillies closer Brad Lidge noted that Amaro was comfortable spending time in the clubhouse with players, so he should adjust well to his new role.
- Don Mattingly is the Marlins eighth manager in the last six seasons. The last manager, Dan Jennings, was recently let go after he was told he would return to his former job as GM. The club owes him about $2MM. Mattingly is said to have agreed to a four-year deal although financial details have yet to be disclosed. Marlins fans may recall the four-year, $10MM contract signed by Ozzie Guillen prior to 2012. It serves as a warning to Mattingly that a long term of contract or high AAV will not ensure job security in Miami.
- As reported earlier this week, Ben Cherington has joined the sports management program at Columbia University. That hasn’t stopped the Pirates from pursuing him for a front office role. Cafardo wonders if Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro might show interest too. In my opinion, the Blue Jays job might not be a fit since Cherington walked away from a similar situation in Boston.
- One AL executive worries about Ben Zobrist‘s age. “Ben is 35 years old. He keeps in great shape and does the job, but he’s not someone you’re going to devote big dollars to over a long-term deal.” Of course, his agent, Alan Nero, believes a three or four-year deal should be well within reach. Nero and the Royals have not discussed an extension.
- The Orioles will bring back pitching coach Dave Wallace. According to a source, manager Buck Showalter asked him to stay. The Orioles pitching staff had a rough season after outperforming their peripherals for a few years. Free agent Wei-Yin Chen will be difficult to replace if he signs elsewhere. The club also has to carefully manage top prospect Dylan Bundy. He’s missed most of the last three seasons after making a couple relief appearances as a 19-year-old in 2012. He’ll be out of options.
- Team sources label Gabe Kapler has the leading candidate for the Dodgers managerial job. Kapler “speaks the same language” as president Andrew Friedman and they have an established working relationship. While Kapler has not managed in the majors, he “drew rave reviews” while managing with the Red Sox Single-A affiliate.
Quick Hits: GMs, Johnson, Honeycutt
GM Alex Anthopoulos’ departure from the Blue Jays‘ GM job is connected to the phenomenon of “title inflation” thoughout the industry, FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. Previously, the GM was typically the top executive in charge of baseball personnel decisions, but increasingly, teams are hiring former GMs to be presidents of baseball operations, to whom GMs report. For example, Theo Epstein is the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, while Jed Hoyer is their GM. The Red Sox, Dodgers and several other teams have similar arrangements. In Anthopoulous’ case, the Blue Jays are replacing former president Paul Beeston with Mark Shapiro, who was formerly the Indians’ GM. Under Beeston, who did not have a baseball operations background, Anthopoulos had a great deal of authority to make player personnel moves. The Blue Jays have denied that the nature of Anthopoulos’ job would have changed under Shapiro, and there appear to have been personality differences between Anthopoulos and Shapiro that contributed to Anthopoulos’ decision to leave. One potential portion of the problem, though, likely was the perception (or reality) that the Blue Jays installed a baseball operations employee above Anthopoulos. As Cameron notes, it’s becoming increasingly common for teams to do just that, reducing the power of GMs for a dozen organizations around the game. Perhaps, Cameron suggests, Anthopoulos’ position with his next club could be president of baseball operations. Here’s more from around the game.
- Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson was unharmed in a carjacking yesterday in Florida, Florida Today reports (hat tip: CBS Sports’ David Brown). Johnson was with a group of people at a convenience store when the accused assailant allegedly approached a member of Johnson’s party, demanded the keys to the vehicle in which Johnson was riding, and shot a bullet into the ground, a fragment of which hit one of Johnson’s companions in the leg. Gould was then arrested after a high-speed chase. Johnson, who MLB.com currently ranks the Sox’ fourth-best prospect, is coming off a successful season at Triple-A Pawtucket and made his big-league debut in July.
- Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt is about to sign an extension with to stay with the Dodgers, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi reports (Twitter links). The plan is for Honeycutt to remain as a pitching coach for two more seasons, then transition into a special assistant role. The Dodgers and manager Don Mattingly recently parted ways, of course, but the Dodgers hope that retaining Honeycutt will help the team ease the transition to a new manager.
NL Notes: Young, Honeycutt, Green, Phillies
The Dodgers nearly signed pitcher Chris Young to a minor league deal last offseason, but he signed a $675K big-league deal with the Royals instead and is now set to start Game 4 of the World Series, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports notes. Young had an effective regular season and has been even better thus far in the playoffs. The extremely cheap signing has been a boon for the Royals and might have been one for the Dodgers as well, Morosi says, arguing that it’s strange the Royals were able to get him so cheaply after he pitched 165 innings with a 3.65 ERA in 2014. As Morosi notes, Young’s 86-MPH fastball likely had something to do with that. I’d add that Young’s unimpressive 2014 peripherals (5.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 22.3% ground ball rate) were also likely a factor. Here’s more from the National League.
- The Dodgers are negotiating with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt on a multi-year contract to keep him with the team, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes. There’s a possibility Honeycutt could join departing Dodgers manager Don Mattingly with the Marlins, but Honeycutt has been with the Dodgers through several managerial changes, and keeping him would help the organization maintain “continuity” for the team as it chooses Mattingly’s successor.
- The process of interviewing for a big-league managerial position is a grueling one, new Padres manager Andy Green tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “The first interview, I spent about 2 1/2 hours with one group, then about 2 1/2 hours with another group. They flew me back in, and I spent 14 hours, from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m. It was a relentless barrage of people,” says Green. “Then they flew in a couple days ago, A.J. [Preller] and Josh Stein, met my family. After my wife and kids went to bed, they fired off three more hours of questions. So they did their due diligence.” Green also shares his thoughts regarding dealing with expectations as a big-league manager, noting that building a winning team requires putting a process in place, and that having expectations in and of itself does little to help a team reach its goals.
- The Mets‘ rise is bad news for the Phillies, in that the Mets’ strong core of starting pitching is set to be around for awhile, Mike Sielski of the Inquirer writes. But the Phillies won’t have the same payroll restrictions the Mets have had, Sielski notes, so it shouldn’t take the Phillies as long as it took the Mets to turn what’s already a good Phillies collection of young talent into a winning team.
Latest On Dodgers’ Managerial Search
The Dodgers have parted ways with manager Don Mattingly in what appears to be a mutually agreeable divorce. That leaves the organization searching for a new skipper, marking an important hire for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. We’ll keep tabs on the hiring process right here:
- The Dodgers will interview Darin Erstad for the position, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Erstad currently serves as the head coach at the University of Nebraska. While it would be unusual for a big league club to hire a skipper directly out of the college ranks, Erstad was a long-time major leaguer.
- Padres bench coach Dave Roberts, who was a finalist in the Mariners’ managerial search, will interview for the Dodgers, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Roberts, of course, had a 10-year playing career as an outfielder and stole one of the most famous bases in recent history in the 2004 ALCS. He’s been coaching for the Padres since 2011, beginning as a first-base coach.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that he’s spoken to a number of people in the past day who said they’d be stunned if anyone other than Kapler is named manager in Los Angeles.
Earlier Updates
- Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles tweets that he’s hearing Mets bench coach Bob Geren will be in the mix for the Dodgers’ opening. Geren, 54, managed the Athletics from 2007-11, so Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi is plenty familiar with him.
- Dodgers director of player development Gabe Kapler is a “serious frontrunner” for the job, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com, who acknowledges that the process is only just beginning. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported earlier this morning (via Twitter) that Kapler was considered a candidate. While he only has minimal managerial experience in the low minors, Kapler is a highly respected former player who has long been viewed as a budding managerial prospect.
- Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times lists some names to keep an eye on, with Kapler among them. Other strong possibilities to come under consideration by the Dodgers, per Shaikin, include former Rays and current Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez, former Padres skipper Bud Black, current Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach, and recently-hired Dodgers third base coach Ron Roenicke.
List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers
Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.
- Dan Jennings, White Sox (2.171)
- George Kontos, Giants (2.171)
- Justin Grimm, Cubs (2.170)
- Arodys Vizcaino, Braves (2.168)
- Avisail Garcia, White Sox (2.167)
- Jurickson Profar, Rangers (2.167)
- Jedd Gyorko, Padres (2.164)
- Juan Lagares, Mets (2.160)
- Didi Gregorius, Yankees (2.159)
- Erasmo Ramirez, Rays (2.158)
- Chris Archer, Rays (2.156)
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies (2.155)
- Will Smith, Brewers (2.155)
- Jean Machi, Red Sox (2.154)
- Seth Maness, Cardinals (2.154)
- Scott Van Slyke, Dodgers (2.151)
- David Lough, Orioles (2.149)
- Chris Hatcher, Dodgers (2.146)
- Evan Scribner, Athletics (2.142)
- Nick Tepesch, Rangers (2.136)
- Zach Putnam, White Sox (2.135)
- Chris Withrow, Braves (2.132)
- Kole Calhoun, Angels (2.130)
- Jeff Manship, Indians (2.130)
- Anthony Rendon, Nationals (2.130)
Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.
It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.
That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.
Chase Utley Intends To Play In 2016
Though some have wondered whether or not Chase Utley will return for a 14th Major League season, Utley’s agent, Joel Wolfe of the Wasserman Media Group, tells the New York Post’s Joel Sherman that Utley is “one hundred percent” returning for the 2016 season.
The Dodgers hold a $15MM club option on Utley that is, as Sherman points out, an easy option to decline. The 37-year-old Utley batted just .212/.286/.343 between the Phillies and Dodgers this season — Philadelphia traded him to L.A. in exchange for Darnell Sweeney and John Richy in August — and an ankle injury kept him from reaching the 500 plate appearances necessary for that $15MM option to automatically vest.
Utley’s season could begin with a two-game suspension, though, after a controversial slide in the NLDS took out Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada and fractured his right fibula. MLB ruled that Utley would be suspended for the next two games of the Division Series, but his camp appealed the suspension. Players are typically allotted up to two weeks to assemble their case when appealing a suspension, Sherman notes, and as such the hearing was delayed until next season so as not to overshadow the remainder of the playoffs or the offseason.
Utley’s disappointing 2015 campaign marked the first full season of his career in which he failed to reach double-digit home runs (he hit eight) and also represented the first time since 2004 that his adjusted OPS fell shy of the league average. He’ll face a limited market as he looks for a new team in free agency, though his track record should earn him an incentive-based big league deal for a team with needs at second base. The Yankees, Royals, White Sox, Angels (who had interest in him this summer) and Padres all make some degree of sense as highly speculative fits for the Phillies icon.