Olney On Gonzalez, Holliday, Dodgers
ESPN.com's Buster Olney offers some storylines to look for in 2010 and turns up some rumors along the way. Here they are:
- The Padres will, "in all likelihood," gauge the market for Adrian Gonzalez this summer and deal him before the July 31st trade deadline. The Mets, Mariners and Red Sox could all bid for the slugger, but the list of suitors could change drastically by mid-summer.
- One GM expects the Mariners to consider offers for Felix Hernandez if they don't lock him up long-term. "They may seriously have to think about trading him," the GM said. Locking Felix up won't be cheap, either. As Olney notes, Hernandez could command C.C. Sabathia-type money ($161MM) if he were a free agent. Luckily for Mariners fans, Felix won't hit the open market until after the 2011 season at the earliest.
- Olney says the Orioles offered Matt Holliday $70MM or so at one point before moving on. Here's a look at some other offers Holliday has received.
- Executives tell Olney that the Dodgers' quiet offseason is giving other teams confidence and emboldening them to make more moves.
Discussion: Los Angeles Dodgers
Ever since the news of Frank and Jamie McCourt's divorce proceedings broke last October, Dodgers fans have been wondering (and dreading) if the ownership dispute would impact the team's operations. The first two months of the offseason have been quiet enough in L.A. to make it look like the Dodgers are themselves also still waiting to see how things will play out with the McCourts and have thus been in a holding pattern in regards to next season's payroll.
This isn't to say that Los Angeles hasn't been active. The Dodgers traded Juan Pierre to the White Sox, were involved in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, tried to acquire Aaron Harang from Cincinnati and signed utilityman Jamey Carroll. But, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports pointed out today, the club is playing even-steven with its offseason moves in order to steady the budget. For instance, the Dodgers saved $8MM over the next two seasons by dealing Pierre, and spent $3.85MM of those savings to sign Carroll. Acquiring another notable free agent (such as Rosenthal's example of Joel Pineiro) would require L.A. to make another move to free up the cash to sign the right-hander.
We've already seen a bit of penny-pinching from the team this winter when they didn't offer arbitration to any of their free agents, passing on the chance to acquire compensatory draft picks for Type A free agents Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf out of fear that Hudson or Wolf might accept the offer. The bright side for Dodgers fans is that the team is at least keeping the payroll stable, rather than shifting into outright cost-cutting mode. Rosenthal notes that there are no plans to deal any of L.A.'s young stars before their arbitration years — trading the likes of Andre Ethier, for example, would be "counter-productive" given Ethier's reasonable arbitration number and Manny Ramirez's slight decline.
This stand-pat strategy will force Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti to be creative in filling the holes on a club that has lost the NLCS to Philadelphia in each of the last two seasons. Rosenthal said that George Sherrill is "a candidate to be traded," but L.A. wouldn't save much money from the deal and getting rid of Sherrill would weaken their bullpen. There is also a need to sign a veteran like Pineiro to anchor the otherwise young starting rotation.
Olney On Adrian, Pineiro, Holliday, Orioles
The latest from Buster Olney's ESPN blog…
- Despite preliminary talks, Olney finds a Padres extension for Adrian Gonzalez to be "very, very unlikely."
- The Dodgers "are in the chase" for free agent starter Joel Pineiro, with the Angels and Mets other suitors. The Dodgers were first linked to Pineiro by MLB.com's Ken Gurnick on December 8th. With a chunk of the Juan Pierre savings already spent on Jamey Carroll, Pineiro seems out of their price range.
- Olney guesses that Matt Holliday will ultimately sign for five years and $82.5-85MM, with options and/or incentives that could "dress it up as a deal that could be worth over $100MM."
- The Orioles continue to hunt for a pitcher and corner infielder. I should note that they were initially linked to Pineiro, but maybe the $9MM committed to Kevin Millwood takes them out of the mix. An Erik Bedard reunion could be a possibility.
Odds & Ends: Dodgers, Beltre, Morrow
Some Saturday afternoon links..
- The Dodgers should have offered salary arbitration to Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudsonto allow themselves the opportunity to receive draft picks, writes Jon Weisman of the Los Angeles Times. Weisman argues that the worst case scenario of being stuck with one or both players at a slightly inflated price for one season wouldn't have been so bad. It's hard to dispute this point as we have yet to see the Dodgers do much of anything this winter.
- Not only are the Athletics talking to free agent Adrian Beltre, they may be the only serious bidder at the moment, according to an item on ESPN's MLB rumor page. The piece also notes that if Beltre's asking price - believed to be north of $10MM per season – drops into Oakland's price range, the Giants, Cardinals, and Tigers could get in the mix.
- Seattle's poor decisions stunted the development of Brandon Morrow, writes Ryan Divish of The News Tribune. While he never had the same ceiling as Tim Lincecum, who was drafted five spots later in the 2006 draft, things could have worked out differently for Morrow if he were given adequate time to develop in the minors.
- Shi Davidi of the Associated Presspraises new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos and his plan to rebuild the franchise. Davidi writes that Anthopoulos has the support of ownership in a way that J.P. Ricciardi never did.
- A few free agents left on the market might want to consider lowering their asking price, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Adam LaRoche seeking $30MM over three years might be the most wishful of the bunch.
Odds & Ends: Yankees, Beltre, Carroll
Merry Christmas everyone! It's time to see what news has been left for us under the tree. I hope there's a vortex football in there for me as well…
- Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports took a look at the offseason thus far in the National League. For his portion on the Cubs, Ringolsby writes that they got the better end of the Milton Bradley-for-Carlos Silva swap.
- Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball counted up the money spent by every team in baseball from 1999-2009, using the end of year salary totals. Over this stretch, the Yankees have spent 44% more than the number two top spender, the Red Sox.
- Sam Borden of the LoHud Yankees Blog takes a look at the remaining free agents who could fill the Yankees' vacancy in left field. Three names that jump out to him: Jonny Gomes, Xavier Nady, and Reed Johnson. Although Gomes had a strong '09 offensively (.879 OPS), his career defensive metrics leave much to be desired. Nady, of course, is only an attractive option if healthy.
- The A's are talking with free agent Adrian Beltre, according to the headline of a post by Mychael Urban of Comcast SportsNet. We first heard that Oakland was interested a week ago, but "only in an Oakland economy size financial package." Urban's piece says that Beltre is reportedly seeking $10-15MM per season.
- Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes that Jamey Carroll's contract with the Dodgers does not include the "Ramirez Provision", which is a clause that mandates a donation to the team's charity. While owner Frank McCourt said that the clause would be standard for all contracts after Manny Ramirez signed his new deal, a grievance filed by the player's union may have caused the Dodgers to ease up on the requirement.
- The Chiba Lotte Mariners will be sending a representative to California to negotiate with/for Dodgers pitcher Eric Stults, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker who passes along the report from Spinochi. The Japanese club has been interested in Stults for a couple of months and have already been rebuffed by the Dodgers once already.
Dodgers Notes: DeWitt, Halladay, Young Players
Some Dodgers notes from Ken Gurnick of MLB.com's latest mailbag…
- The club is uneasy about Blake DeWitt as their everyday second baseman because of his lackluster defense. If DeWitt's offense were on par with the likes of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, Jamey Carroll would likely be slotted on the bench rather than split time with the 24-year-old.
- The Dodgers made an earnest attempt to land Roy Halladay prior to the blockbuster deal that shipped him to Philadelphia. According to sources, the Blue Jays would have preferred L.A. as a trading partner, but of course, it wasn't really up to them. Ultimately, it didn't matter how much the Dodgers could give Toronto or potentially give Doc in an extension, the Phillies were at the top of his list.
- One reader asked why the Dodgers don't lock up their young core players in long-term contracts rather than go to arbitration with them. Gurnick says that it is often a risky proposition and references the regression of Russell Martin as an example. Had the Dodgers given him a hefty four or five-year deal after his back-to-back All-Star seasons, they would have likely regretted it after his slide the past two seasons.
Odds & Ends: Delgado, Johnson, Igawa
Some links as Hanley Ramirez celebrates his 26th birthday…
- The Mets may have reduced interest in Carlos Delgado, according to Marty Noble of MLB.com. The slugger won't start playing baseball in Puerto Rico until mid-January; no reason was given for the delay.
- The Yankees have about $4MM to spend on a left fielder, according to the New York Daily News.
- Nick Johnson's deal with the Yankees is official, according to MLB.com's Brian Hoch.
- David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution points out (via Twitter) that Troy Glaus will be the Braves' 11th opening day first baseman in 12 seasons if he signs in Atlanta, as expected.
- Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News says (via Twitter) that the Cubs were willing to take on Kei Igawa's salary (two years, $8MM) before the Yanks acquired Javier Vazquez.
- Brandon Morrow tells Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times that he hopes to start in Toronto.
- Dustin Parkes of Drunk Jays Fans says there's no point thinking of Roy Hallladay as a saint, even if he did buy ad space in the Toronto Sun.
- An unnamed source tells Bill Shaikin of the LA Times that the Dodgers broke even last year. Check out Shaikin's interview with team president Dennis Mannion.
- The Phillies have been in touch with former Nats reliever Mike MacDougal, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. MacDougal's agent says "a good number" of teams are interested, which is what we heard earlier in the week.
Odds & Ends: Vazquez, A’s, Orioles, Marlins
A few links…
- ESPN's Keith Law rated David Ortiz signing with Boston as the best free agent pickup of the decade. Darren Dreifort's deal with the Dodgers was the worst, and he called the Erik Bedard trade the biggest of the decade. That last one is certainly debatable; I prefer the Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore (plus others) deal.
- Interestingly, Yankees' GM Brian Cashman noted today that the club tried to acquire Javier Vazquez from Arizona after 2005 and the White Sox after 2008, “but we just didn’t match up," reports Chad Jennings of The Journal News.
- Bruce Jenkins of The SF Chronicle says that the A's are winning the battle of the Bay Area this offseason. Of course, the regular season is the battle you really want to win.
- Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports that Orioles' president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said "My guess is I wouldn't think we'll be doing anything anytime soon, which is not to be interpreted as not doing anything between now and Sarasota." The O's finalized the Garrett Atkins deal today.
- MLB.com's Joe Frisaro writes about the Marlins' first base situation, noting that there's certainly no shortage of in-house options.
- Bill Ladson of MLB.com tweets that the Nationals continue to show interest in righty John Smoltz, "but they are not willing to break the bank to get him."
- Coco Crisp's physical with the A's was delayed because of travel issues, so the announcement of his signing will have to wait says Susan Slusser of The SF Chronicle.
- Maury Brown at The Biz of Baseball takes a look at the growth of player salaries over the last decade.
- Here's some news on a different kind of contract negotiation: According to the AP (via ESPN) MLB and the umpires hope to have a new agreement in place tomorrow, which will allow for greater flexibility with postseason assignments.
Dodgers Exploring Aaron Harang Trade?
10:58am: MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports (via Twitter) that there are no new talks between the Reds and Dodgers. The Reds were not receptive to the Dodgers' offer.
TUESDAY, 9:34am: Yahoo's Jeff Passan hears that the trade talks are not dead. The Reds want a decent prospect plus George Sherrill for Harang, since they're willing to eat almost $10MM of Harang's $14MM salary to make the deal cost-neutral for the Dodgers.
THURSDAY, 6:55pm: "A source from one of the clubs" gives Yahoo's Tim Brown a different take, saying that a Harang deal between these two teams is "not happening."
6:02pm: ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports that discussions between the Dodgers and Reds have "gotten beyond the tire-kicking stage" and that the two sides are "seriously contemplating" how to complete a Harang deal. Still, Stark's source says there's still a long way to go before anything is finalized.
8:37am: The Dodgers are exploring a trade for Reds starter Aaron Harang, reports Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. The Reds seek "one or two players on the Dodgers' major league roster in return." Hernandez notes that if traded Harang would be guaranteed $15MM for one year; his 2011 option would become mutual and the buyout would increase. The Reds would have to pick up part of the tab.
You might be surprised to see the Dodgers considering a salary dump acquisition, given all the rumors of their lack of spending ability. But keep in mind that GM Ned Colletti freed up $8MM in the Juan Pierre trade, which is to be used toward a starting pitcher, second baseman, and bench players. $3.85MM already went toward Jamey Carroll, so Colletti doesn't have a ton to work with.
I'm not sure who the Reds are targeting from the Dodgers for Harang, but shortstop Chin-Lung Hu would make sense.
Olney’s Latest: Bradley, Damon, Yankees, Harang
In today’s blog post at ESPN, Buster Olney writes that the presence of Ken Griffey Jr. should help Milton Bradley and the clubhouse culture in Seattle, however this might be the final straw for Bradley because he’s running out of second chances.
Let’s round up the rest of Olney’s rumors…
- One GM said the Bradley deal “means that one more chair just got taken away,” referring to another corner outfielder being taken off the market.
- Olney says that Johnny Damon might be a perfect fit for the Cardinals, who continue to talk with Matt Holliday.
- Meanwhile, there was some concern in the Yankees’ organization that if Damon took a paycut to return, he would have come into the season very unhappy.
- The rumored Aaron Harang to the Dodgers deal was never a good match, because LA doesn’t have much to spend and the Reds are trying to shed payroll.