Fantasy Baseball: Leveraging Splits For Targeted Streaming
Hello friends.
At the end of April, we took a peek at one of my favorite subjects, honing in on team performances vs pitcher handedness splits, trying to identify the teams to start taking advantage of, and those we should maybe try to avoid.
TL;DR
Streaming against bad teams is usually obvious but what kind of pitchers different teams do poorly against isn't always so straightforward. Teams can be bad vs both hands or good vs both hands but sometimes there is a big gap between LHP/RHP results and that's the space where you can often find advantages. While your league-mates are simply avoiding good offenses and/or targeting bad ones, we can hone in with more specificity and leverage less obvious plays.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Boras Four, Cubs, Blue Jays, Gambling
I'm back for this week's mailbag! We've got questions on the Boras Four, the Cubs' plan at catcher, available righty relievers, Juan Soto's defense, the Blue Jays' offense, the recent gambling suspensions, my one-third award picks, and much more.
Doug asks:
Do you think that front offices will feel even more compelled to depress free agent salaries after all of the prolonged drama about "The Boras Four" and none of those players panning out to be very good? Will any of Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, or Montgomery opt out of their contract?
Owners and players will be diametrically opposed on player salaries until the end of time, or at least until the end of Major League Baseball. But to your point, it stands to reason that if the early performance of the late-signing Boras pitchers holds up, more front offices will be wary of giving big AAVs to hurlers signing well into spring training, even on short-term deals.
Blake Snell has been terrible, and since debuting April 8th has separate IL stints for adductor and groin strains. Snell recently told reporters, "The one thing I would say is that big-league spring training, you need it. You have to go to spring training. I hope teams see that. I don’t know what [Jordan] Montgomery is doing, but I bet it’s tough for him."
Montgomery, who expressed a similar sentiment, sits at a 5.48 ERA after eight starts, with the worst strikeout rate of his career.
Some pitchers have succeeded after signing late, notably Ervin Santana signing on 3-12-14 and putting up a 3.2 WAR season for the Braves. But both Snell and Montgomery signed later than Santana did, and most examples show pitchers struggling without a normal spring training.
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the Yankees' deadline needs, outfield trade possibilities for the Royals, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Diamondbacks' slow start, Tarik Skubal's dominance, Aaron Judge's potential Hall of Fame track and the Cy Young candidacies of star closers Emmanuel Clase and Mason Miller.
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MLB Mailbag: Rooker, Miller, AL Central, Cubs, Sosa, Jays, Pitching Trends
I'm pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes for this week's edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. This week, we'll look at Brent Rooker's trade candidacy, Mason Miller's long-term role, a host of AL Central topics, the Cubs' recent offensive woes, and what could be a tricky deadline full of difficult decisions for the Blue Jays. Let's get into it!
Nathan asks:
Which teams will be most interested in adding Brent Rooker's DH/LF bat and is there any reason for the A's to hold on to him past July?
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Fantasy Baseball: A Tale Of Two Months
With summer almost upon us and spring slipping away, so too do our excuses for why our players are under or overproducing what we expected when drafting them. Saying, "It's still just May" is perfectly sane but the deeper into summer you use the excuse of time, the more you're probably fooling yourself. Since (nearly) two months are now in the books, let's cleave this early part of the season into two and see what we can see.
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Where Can The Braves Go For Outfield Help?
In a season with a number of high-profile injuries, there has been no bigger loss than Ronald Acuña Jr. The defending NL MVP tore the ACL in his left knee over the weekend. It's the second time in the last four years that an ACL tear (in separate knees) has ended his season a few months early.
There's obviously no way of replacing Acuña with anyone close to the same caliber of player. The Braves will likely need to add to the corner outfield in some form over the next two months, though. Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted yesterday that the Acuña injury will push each of Adam Duvall and Jarred Kelenic into an everyday role. That's not an ideal position for a team trying to hang with the Phillies at the top of the NL East.
Atlanta bought low on Kelenic over the winter. The former top prospect still hasn't shown any sign of a legitimate breakout. He has a roughly average .258/.305/.383 batting line over 128 plate appearances. Kelenic's 31.3% strikeout rate is still much too high, and he's walking less often (6.3% of the time) than he did during his final season in Seattle. He can hit the ball hard, but he's still swinging and missing far too frequently. The Braves have also completely shielded him from left-handed pitching. That'll no longer be the case if he's playing everyday, and he's a .188/.252/.307 hitter in 301 career plate appearances against southpaws.
Duvall returned to Atlanta on a $3MM free agent deal midway through Spring Training. His profile is well-established at this point. He hits for power and plays solid defense in the corner outfield. That'll come with low on-base marks and underwhelming strikeout and walk numbers. Duvall has dramatically cut his swing-and-miss in 99 plate appearances this year, but that's largely attributable to the Braves leveraging him heavily against left-handed pitching as Kelenic's platoon partner. Duvall has 14 strikeouts and one walk in 39 plate appearances against righties. At age 35, it seems fair to presume he hasn't suddenly found a new level of plate discipline.
Let's run through a few of the likelier possible trade targets for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta front office.
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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What’s Mason Miller Worth On The Trade Market?
To say Mason Miller's start to the season has the baseball world buzzing would be an understatement. The second-year A's hurler, whom Oakland selected with the No. 97 overall pick in 2021, has emphatically asserted himself into the conversation for baseball's top reliever. Standing at 6'5" and averaging a comical 101.3 mph on his heater, Miller is the quintessential power pitcher. He's burst out of the gates with a 2.05 ERA in 22 innings, going 9-for-9 in save opportunities and striking out an outrageous 51.9% of his opponents on the year. Eighty-one hitters have had the misfortune of facing Miller. Forty-two of them have gone down on strikes.
Miller allowed two runs in his first outing of the season and was just finally scored upon again yesterday, yielding three earned runs in 1 2/3 frames. Between those two appearances? The right-hander pitched 19 1/3 shutout innings with a 40-to-4 K/BB ratio, fanning an impossible 60.6% of his opponents.
Unsurprisingly, between his dominant performance and the current state of the Athletics, he was quickly speculated upon as a trade candidate -- despite entering the year with six full seasons of club control remaining. As one would expect, teams have inquired. And as you'd also imagine, the asking price is reported to be stratospheric. Miller is going to generate considerable buzz between now and the July 30 trade deadline. Given the massive amount of club control he has remaining, it's a stretch to call him a "likely" trade candidate, but it's a guarantee that teams are going to try. The big question will be how much Oakland will need to be offered to genuinely consider moving him.
Before we dive too far in, let's be clear: this is an exercise without a clear answer. There's no precedent for a pitcher -- or a player -- with this level of early-career dominance and a nearly full slate of six years of control even being available. That we're even talking about it underscores the current state of the A's: a rebuilding team in the midst of relocation whose rebuild has stalled because of nearly universal misses on returns for their top stars. If Oakland were competitive right now or at least seeing enough encouraging returns in the rebuild to think they could be a Wild Card club in 2025-26, this wouldn't even be as serious a topic of discussion.
That's not the world we live in, though. The A's have MLB's fourth-worst run differential and fifth-worst winning percentage. Their farm system ranks near the bottom of the league even after trading Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Lou Trivino, Sam Moll and more. The A's have painted themselves into a corner that's problematic enough that their juggernaut closer is already being floated as a trade candidate despite barely having a year of service time.
So maybe this is indeed an exercise in futility, but let's take a look at some of the most recent trades for big-name relievers and see what we can glean.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Danny Jansen's free agent value, the Brewers' rotation, the Guardians' surprising success, top White Sox prospect Colson Montgomery, Yankees rookie Luis Gil, José Abreu, the Nationals' first base situation and plenty more.
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