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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Mason Miller, Vlad Jr., Orioles, White Sox, Marlins, And More

By Tim Dierkes | May 2, 2024 at 6:00pm CDT

As explained here, we have been writing Trade Rumors Front Office originals such as this one for the last four years or so, but moving forward they'll be available on the website and not just in subscribers' inboxes.  In the near future, expect to see roughly six such paywalled posts per week here on MLBTR.  This week's mailbag explores the logic behind a Mason Miller trade, the Giants' slow start, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s true talent level, potential rotation upgrades for the Orioles, musings about the White Sox and Angels, and a look at Kim Ng's tenure as Marlins GM.

Phillip asks:

Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg are amazing, and totally wasted on the A's right now, despite them playing better than expected. But any trade would best be for solid prospects-SEVERAL solid prospects- who are 2-3 seasons away instead of MLB-ready guys who would also be wasted on the current and near-future teams. Given that, what team has those far away prospects to pay for one of those splendid slingers? Not Baltimore, more's the pity.

This brings up a philosophical question: should bad teams have nice things?  Mason Miller provides a reason to watch the A's, and his season has been insane so far.  And while he's under team control through the 2029 season, we can't count on him to hold up or on this franchise to be willing to pay him those last few years if he does.

So the cold-hearted logical answer is for the A's to trade Miller as soon as possible, as he might be at peak value and could be a lot less valuable the next time this organization has a realistic shot at contending.  (I am aware that the A's are not awful so far this year at 15-17, but I do not think they have a realistic chance at making the playoffs anytime soon).

It's worth considering that Miller was a starter in college and all through the minors.  He came down with a "mild UCL sprain" in mid-May of last year, which involved a four-month recovery period and short appearances when he returned in September.

A's GM David Forst explained to MLB.com's Martin Gallegos last December that he'd like to see Miller stay healthy for a year as a reliever before the team considers moving him back into a starting role.  When a pitcher excels as a closer to the degree Miller has thus far, it's often hard to get him out of that role, but if he can eventually transition back to starting, he could theoretically be even more valuable.  But given last year's UCL sprain and the attrition rate of the game's hardest throwers, there's a pretty good case that Miller is indeed at peak value right now.

I don't know where the hell the A's are going to be (as an organization) in 2026, when Miller will receive his first arbitration salary. Given the extra uncertainty around the franchise these next few years, Phillip's case makes some sense: trade Miller (and/or Erceg) now for prospects who are several years away from the Majors.

The problem with this idea is that a prospect's uncertainty is higher the further away he is from the Majors.  Trading Miller this summer might require threading the following needles:

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The NL Rookie Of The Year Field Is Loaded

By Anthony Franco | May 1, 2024 at 11:58pm CDT

In my subscriber chat last week, a questioner asked which players I'd take as respective Rookies of the Year. While the race in both leagues could be interesting, the picture in the National League seems particularly fascinating. There are 10-15 players who could be legitimate threats for that award, a reflection both of an intriguing level of prospect talent and NL teams' signing of a handful of players out of foreign professional leagues last offseason.

Let's run through what is shaping up to be a strong class.

Jared Jones, Pirates RHP

Jones would be my pick for the most impressive rookie of the season's first month. The Pirates right-hander has followed up an excellent spring with a dominant six MLB starts. He owns a 3.18 ERA over 34 innings while striking out nearly 32% of batters faced. Jones has walked fewer than 4% of his opponents, and while he'll probably have a tough time maintaining quite that level, he's getting opposing hitters to flail aimlessly at stuff off the plate.

Among all major league pitchers with 20+ innings, only Sonny Gray and Jack Flaherty have a better strikeout/walk rate differential. No one is inducing swinging strikes at a higher clip. Jones has surpassed 120 innings in the minors in each of the last two seasons, so he shouldn't be on too strict a workload limit. The only quibble with his performance is an elevated 1.85 HR/9 rate, but the longball wasn't much of an issue in the minors. This didn't come out of nowhere -- the former second-round draftee entered the year as a Top 100 prospect and trendy Rookie of the Year pick -- but it would've been tough to predict this level of immediate dominance.

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Francisco Lindor’s Slow Start Is Not Abnormal

By Darragh McDonald | April 15, 2024 at 12:56pm CDT

This post is brought to you by Stathead.  We use Stathead, powered by Baseball Reference, to find interesting stats in our articles. Stathead has easy-to-use discovery tools to take you inside the BR database. Try it for free today!

The 2024 season is now rolling along, which means it’s time to wildly overreact to small samples of data. Previously unremarkable players are suddenly looking like Hall-of-Famers while reliably good players now seem to be washed.

A midseason slump is easy to dismiss when you look up and the full season stats still seem good. Maybe a slumping hitter is still hitting .265 or a pitcher that just got lit up still has an earned run average around 4.00. But early on, a batting average that starts with a zero or an ERA that has two digits before the decimal place can be a cause for concern.

Thankfully, Stathead has an amazing tool to help put this all into proper context. Using the Span Finder, we can search a player’s entire career to see if they have ever had a previous slump that compares to what’s currently happening. Let’s use Francisco Lindor as an example.

It’s no secret that Lindor hasn’t exactly been his best self so far this year. His struggles became such a talking point amid fans of the Mets that some of them got together on social media and decided to support Lindor with a standing ovation, mirroring how Phillies’ fans responded when Trea Turner was struggling last year.

Through 15 games, Lindor has just eight hits in 62 at-bats for a .129 batting average. Just two of those eight hits have been for extra bases, one double and one home run. His batting line is just  .129/.236/.194 and his on-base plus slugging is just .430, well below his career mark of .810.

Now that Lindor is 30 years old, it might be tempting to consider this the start of some age-based decline, but Span Finder shows us that he has been here before. Doing a custom search for every 15-game stretch of Lindor’s career and sorting by ascending OPS, we get this…

  • September 10 to September 26 of 2016: .309 OPS
  • September 11 to September 28 of 2016: .337 OPS
  • September 9 to September 24 of 2016: .340 OPS
  • April 17 to May 5 of 2021: .388 OPS
  • October 1 of 2023 to April 13 of 2024: .392 OPS
  • September 8 to September 23 of 2016: .404 OPS
  • April 17 of 2021 to May 3 of 2021: .414 OPS
  • September 29 of 2017 to April 11 of 2018: .429 OPS
  • March 29 to April 14 of 2024: .430 OPS

Lindor is clearly in one of the worst stretches of his career right now, but it’s not totally without precedent. He slumped real bad at the end of the 2016 season when he was 22 years old. Despite that awful finish, he still hit .301/.358/.435 on the year overall for a 106 OPS+. Cleveland made the playoffs that year and Lindor immediately put that slump behind him, hitting .310/.355/.466 in the postseason as the club went all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, even going to extra innings in that classic game.

Given that there were also some notable struggles early on in 2018 and 2021 mixed in there, it seems fair to conclude that Lindor is performing within the range of previous outcomes. It’s clearly not ideal for him or the Mets that he’s started the season in this hole, but it’s one he has climbed out of before. Throughout the ups and downs of his career, he has hit .272/.340/.470 for a 116 OPS+.

That bat, along with Lindor’s speed and defense, are why the Mets gave him a ten-year, $341MM extension a few years ago. That deal pays Lindor $32MM annually through the 2031 season, so it’s good for the Mets that his current slump isn’t totally unprecedented.

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The Opener: Valdez, Gray, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | April 9, 2024 at 8:37am CDT

Today’s Opener is brought to you by Factor. Discover Factor, the game-changing meal delivery service that requires no cooking – just heat and eat in 2 minutes. With a wide variety of chef-crafted and dietitian-approved options, including Calorie Smart, Protein Plus, and Vegan + Veggie, Factor makes eating better and more convenient. Enjoy an exclusive offer of 50% off plus free wellness shots for life* — and make Factor your VIP pass to a hassle-free, nutritious lifestyle!

As the 2024 MLB regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Valdez to be evaluated:

Astros southpaw Framber Valdez was scratched from his start yesterday due to elbow soreness, becoming the latest player of note in the league to suffer an elbow-related injury scare. Per Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle, the lefty has departed the team’s road trip and is set to return to Houston today for further evaluation. Kawahara adds that both manager Joe Espada and GM Dana Brown downplayed the seriousness of Valdez’s injury, with Espada emphasizing that Valdez has not yet been placed on the injured list. If Valdez misses time, he’d join Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia Jr., and Lance McCullers Jr. as Astros starters on the injured list, though Verlander could be nearing a return later this month.

Right-hander Blair Henley was called up to take the mound in place of Valdez yesterday, but he allowed five runs while recording just one out against the Rangers. Fellow righty Spencer Arrighetti could be an alternative option to take the ball next time Valdez’s spot in the rotation comes up if he’s not cleared to take the ball and Houston decides not to stick with Henley.

2. Gray to make Cardinals debut:

The Cardinals are expected to activate right-hander Sonny Gray from the injured list today to make his club debut in St. Louis against the Phillies. The 34-year-old signed with the club on a three-year, $75MM deal this offseason on the heels of a dominant 2023 campaign with the Twins where he led the majors with a 2.83 FIP and finished second to Gerrit Cole in AL Cy Young voting. He’ll get a tough assignment in his Cards debut, taking the mound opposite Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. St. Louis is surely hoping that Gray can help the club turn its rotation around. The group’s collective 4.85 ERA ranks 20th in MLB, and their 5.48 FIP ranks 29th, ahead of only the Blue Jays, through the young 2024 season’s first 11 games.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

The 2024 season is now in full swing, and some clubs have gotten off to surprisingly strong starts while plenty of expected contenders have struggled to open the year. If you have questions regarding your favorite club’s start to the campaign, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a live chat with readers this afternoon at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after it is completed.

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Sponsored: Remove The Stress Of Planning And Cooking With Factor

By Tim Dierkes | March 25, 2024 at 5:02pm CDT

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Testimonials From Trade Rumors Front Office Subscribers

By Tim Dierkes | February 6, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

There are many reasons to subscribe to Trade Rumors Front Office.  I thought they’d be more meaningful coming from real members:

Remove Ads, Support Our Writers

The information we get from the expert writers at MLB Trade Rumors just can’t be found elsewhere! Too many formerly independent outlets are now owned by commercial conglomerates who control the content! The economy is tough; do your part to keep this effort independent. As an added bonus, the banner ads will disappear; that alone is worth the cost!
J. Allen M.

Supporting the writers is by far the most important thing to me. I have been reading MLBTR for many years and enjoying it for free. Same with Fangraphs. When an option came to get a paid membership, I jumped on it for both. While I enjoy reading this, it’s important to remember that there are skilled professionals, who take a ton of time to scour the web, do research, and write wonderful articles. I don’t want MLBTR to go away, so I am glad to support it, and hope to be reading this for many years to come.
Dmitry C.

I love the ability to read all the information on MLBTR without the hassle of dealing with the many annoying advertisements. The site looks cleaner and the cost to sign up for a yearly subscription is minimal. It is well worth the investment to have one less place that attacks my eyes with advertising.
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The work of MLB Trade Rumors writers is outstanding – informative and well-written. They are at the top of their field, and it has been a good feeling to know that my subscription supports their work.
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I subscribe in support of MLBTR writers as they provide some best analysis in the business. MLBTR is the best source for transactions bar none. I love that they cover even small transactions that are largely ignored by other sites. Great work that I am happy to support.
Philip P.

I subscribed to MLB Trade Rumors the day that option became available, and I’m so glad I did. I get value from this site every single day and am proud to support the great staff who create such quality content.
Rick S.

I cannot be happier with my Front Office subscription. I have been a passionate user of Trade Rumors since soon after its launch. One of the major appeals for me is that TR is a small team with great values – people who are open and honest about the goals of their small business. By supporting them with my extremely inexpensive subscription, I am proud to be supporting this small family of smart, passionate and talented sports fans.
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It is so nice to not see ads on the website or app – much cleaner look and easier to read. Plus the knowledge that I am directly supporting great writers and content.
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I have been a subscriber for more than a year, and I couldn’t be more satisfied. The baseball, hockey and pro basketball sites are my go-to for news about my Cards, Blues and Warriors, often times scooping local and national media sources. I check Trade Rumors several times a day, and the fact that I can do this, undisturbed by ads, makes the subscription even more valuable to me.
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I’ve read MLB Trade Rumors for years and decided to subscribe so that it can continue to be the go-to site for details on free agent signings, contract extensions, and trade talks. Being ad-free is a bonus, but mostly I am proud to support the writers and the team that creates this valuable resource.
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Getting rid of the ads makes the site a lot more delightful, and it’s nice to know that I’m helping the site stay in business and invest in making tools that make it even more useful.
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I became a front office subscriber to support the site and its writers when there was a need. The amount is nothing for the value I get and the time I spend on the site – not only for the quality and timeliness of the posts, but also the accuracy. The content is clearly created by professional writers, and curated with thought.
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As a long-time “free” user of MLBTR, I stepped up to being a paid subscriber for several reasons: primarily, to support the Trade Rumors staff and to ensure the continued flow of great content that goes beyond reporting news, or grinding statistics. The additional benefits of the subscriber-only posts and articles provide thoughtful insight for me as a fan, and fantasy player alike. At a mere eight cents a day, it’s an enormous value!
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If your favorite time of year is the MLB Hot Stove league, you should subscribe to MLB Trade Rumors. MLB Trade Rumors is the best year round source of unbiased, no-hype, no clickbait MLB information. Every team receives attention. You can track current and future year Free Agents and receive expert analysis on a weekly basis. A great throwback internet site with no hot takes, no uninformed comments and no intrusions on your experience if you subscribe.
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I love the extra subscriber chats. MLBTR was already the best source for up-to-date news and opinion. But being a subscriber makes it even better. Plus, supporting this site is an easy decision, because they do such great work and deserve to be compensated. Thanks guys for all you do!
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My favorite part of being a MLBTR subscriber is the Friday chats with Anthony Franco. My questions get answered, the regulars show up each week, and access to expert analysis is at my fingertips.
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They provide excellent news coverage and analysis to a degree I haven’t found anywhere else. When you pair their content with knowledgeable and relaxed contributors who see baseball through different lenses, it makes for entertaining and thorough baseball reads.
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For 3 dollars a month, you get all the tools to become an amazing baseball fan. My favorite part are the Chats which you basically get automatically answered any baseball question you have! Support the best writers in America today with a MLBTR Front Office subscription!
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The Front Office chats and bonus material have really deepened my awareness of current events in baseball. I look forward to them each week and feel that they convey the kind of perspective we would get from interacting with actual MLB front offices.
Robert A.

The team provides additional very high level analysis of team trends, player agent insights, special private chats where you are sure to get answered because the groups are much smaller. This content alone is fascinating. My friends are constantly wondering how I have so much baseball insight.
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The subscriber-only chats and articles provide the best MLB conversation and insight available. Whether it’s related to roster construction, player performance, or predicting what’ll happen next, the MLBTR Front Office content offers well-rounded perspectives week after week.
Brian R.

In the age of mass-produced, lifeless articles, Trade Rumors Front Office provides a host of thought-provoking pieces and insider access to the experts whose content you’ve likely enjoyed for years. The value proposition is unmatched in sports media. There simply does not exist any outlet providing comparable coverage for $2.99 per month.
Patrick T.

As a Trade Rumors Front Office subscriber, not only do I get extra articles and chats each week but my chat questions almost always get answered due to smaller group size. Highly recommended!
Jeff O.

MLB Trade Rumors is an indispensable resource for fans who want to know more about possible trades and signings than just the players and the numbers. The site’s analysis reflects the staff’s deep knowledge and expertise. And I love that I get all of that good stuff without ads.
Wendy T.

I am constantly impressed with the depth of knowledge of the staff at MLBTR as to almost all aspects of all 30 teams. My subscription really enhances their excellent coverage with additional in-depth analysis and the weekly chat is great. Great value for the price.
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Access Our GM-Caliber Tools & Analysis

The contract tracker and agency database that come with a Front Office subscription are the most powerful tools an avid fan or smaller agency can have. Knowing the tireless work that MLB teams and our data and analytics team puts in at Wasserman Baseball, I can assure any smaller agency or committed fan that does not have the resources available to them that we do that the premium content they will receive from MLBTR is well worth the investment.
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As a writer covering baseball, I consider the MLBTR Contract Tracker and Agency Database indispensable tools. Not only are they thorough and current, they’re one-of-a-kind. Simply put, there’s nothing else like this out there. As a longtime MLBTR writer, I may be a little biased here, but I believe the site’s trackers and databases allow baseball people to develop a far deeper understanding of the sport and how it works behind the scenes.
Ben Nicholson-Smith, Sportsnet.ca

The contract tracker alone would be worth the price of admission, but MLBTR amplifies its value by tacking on an agency database you can’t find anywhere else on top of the in-depth, year-round coverage of trades and rumors you’ve come to know and love from the site. I can’t imagine writing about baseball and not having MLBTR as a resource.
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Support Our Trade Deadline Coverage And Go Ad-Free

By Tim Dierkes | August 1, 2023 at 11:01pm CDT

MLBTR navigated the trade deadline today with a six-person team working doggedly to bring you all the latest rumors and deals.  As we have for nearly 18 years, our team strives for timeliness, accuracy, context, and analysis.

As a small business, MLBTR has weathered many storms over the years, most recently the pandemic and lockout.  This year, unfortunately, our ad rates are down 23% year-over-year.  With traffic holding steady, that means the site’s revenue is down by a similar amount.  So as the owner of the site, I’ve been spending most of my time working on the ad situation.

Ad-free subscriptions are how we try to bridge the gap.  If you browse MLBTR with the ads, you are supporting us, and we appreciate that greatly.  Middlemen, however, take a significant portion of ad revenue.  If you’re a daily reader and power user of this website like so many MLB GMs, agents, players, and reporters, you can support us directly by getting an ad-free subscription for $29.89 per year.  All ads disappear for logged-in supporters, making the site that much smoother as the trade deadline approaches.

We work hard on the additional benefits of subscribing, such as exclusive articles and chats.  Click here to learn more!  We think the subscription package is well worth your while, and if you disagree you can get a full refund.

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Get Unparalleled MLB Transaction Analysis From Our Baseball Industry-Endorsed Experts

By Tim Dierkes | July 5, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

You want to go deep on trades, free agency, and contracts the way MLB executives do.  We know how hard it can be to find intelligent baseball analysis these days – especially within the hot stove niche.  After almost 18 years of analyzing thousands of contracts and trades, our writers have established expertise that is respected by MLB executives, agents, and players.  Just ask Brewers vice president of baseball operations Matt Kleine:

“MLBTR is an industry staple for information and analysis. We utilize their content daily, and it serves as a positive resource in our quest to remain informed with the best and latest information.”

For the past three years, our writers have been providing exclusive analysis to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers that you can’t find anywhere else.  Whether it’s Steve Adams on blocked prospects to watch at the trade deadline or Anthony Franco identifying six change of scenery controllable bats, we’re sending out multiple exclusive articles every week for those who want to think like a GM.

  1. Read about the full benefits of Trade Rumors Front Office, which go well beyond our baseball industry-endorsed exclusive analysis.
  2. Sign up now and enjoy the benefits for one year!
  3. If you didn’t find it worth your money, let me know and I’ll personally send you a refund.
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Support MLBTR And Enjoy The Benefits Of An Ad-Free Subscription

By Tim Dierkes | April 4, 2023 at 9:00am CDT

MLB Trade Rumors has been an independent website for over 17 years, and I intend to keep it that way.  That means no one can force us to put a bunch of gambling stuff on the site or run clickbait articles, among other things.

As you know, MLBTR’s primary revenue source is the banner ads you see.  The pay rates of those ads fluctuate in a way that is beyond my control.  I created our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription service three years ago to start reducing our reliance on banner ads a little bit, and provide something extra for interested die-hard readers.

So if you have the means, please consider supporting us with a $29.89 annual subscription, or try it out for $2.99 per month.  In either case, there’s a 100% money-back guarantee.

It’s important to me that Trade Rumors Front Office stands on its own as something that provides more than $30 per year of value to our members.  Based on feedback from our existing members, I believe we have accomplished that, and I continue to strive to add more benefits to the subscription.  This is what you get currently:

  • Exclusive weekly MLB analysis from Steve Adams and Anthony Franco, sent straight to your inbox.  Our writers have impressive analytical chops, being immersed in MLB hot stove news as a full-time job in a way very few people are.  Anthony is sending out an article later today with his take on Bryan Reynolds’ reported request for an opt-out in his negotiations with the Pirates.
  • Exclusive weekly fantasy baseball articles from expert Brad Johnson.  Brad is one of the best in the business and his fantasy advice is always illuminating.  Brad also holds a fantasy baseball live chat for Front Office subscribers every other week.  Please note that if you don’t play fantasy baseball, you can opt out of those emails.
  • Exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.  We run plenty of live chats here on the free site, where the chances of having a question answered range from 5-15%.  Since Front Office chats have fewer participants, the answer rate is in the range of 85-90%.
  • Early access to our live chats with current and former MLB players and executives.  If we’ve got a slate of these chats on the books, I’ll often email our subscribers with a heads-up on the timing and a link to submit questions early.
  • First look at new MLBTR features and initiatives.

Check out Trade Rumors Front Office today!

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MLB Trade Rumors: Still Independent After 17 Years

By Tim Dierkes | December 8, 2022 at 10:00am CDT

Last month, this website celebrated its 17th birthday.  Wow, we’re getting old!  Shout out to those who were around for the “white text on a black background” days!

We’ve come a very long way in these 17 years.  The quality of our writers’ work is as strong as it has ever been.  Our team of writers worked very hard to process all the information coming out of the Winter Meetings and put it in proper context, including Xander Bogaerts signing late at night on Wednesday.

There are no corporate overlords here at MLBTR.  It’s still just owned by one guy, me.  That means I can continue to steer the direction of the site toward quality instead of sensationalism, traffic, and gambling.  We don’t play up rumors or information that we think is incorrect or exaggerated, and we’ve developed a strong sense for that.  It also means we can spend a lot of time producing work that I feel is essential but probably isn’t directly profitable, like our top 50 free agent list, our offseason outlook and review posts, and our arbitration projections.

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