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Martin Prado Appears Likely To Retire

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Veteran infielder Martin Prado appears to be preparing to call it quits, sources tell Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 36-year-old reached the open market after wrapping up a three-year extension with the Marlins.

Prado was in the midst of a solid campaign when he re-upped with the Fish late in the 2016 season. It seemed at the time like a bit of a hefty guarantee, but not wildly out of whack for the value he might have commanded on the open market in the ensuing winter.

Unfortunately, that proved to be a last hurrah in an otherwise excellent career. A string of leg injuries limited Prado’s availability and his performance fell off a cliff. In the three campaigns that followed, Prado has been limited to just 616 plate appearances of .241/.276/.313 hitting.

Prado spent most of his time in 2019 at first base; clearly, there aren’t any organizations that would prefer to have that sort of offensive production occupying that position. There’s no question Prado would need to settle for a minor-league deal if he decides to play.

The rough ending doesn’t detract from Prado’s worthwhile time in the majors. He spent half of his 14 years with the Braves before stints with the Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Marlins. In total, he owns a .287/.335/.412 slash over 5,861 trips to the plate in that span.

Howie Kendrick Reportedly Drawing Early Interest

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On the heels of an outstanding bounceback campaign, veteran utilityman Howie Kendrick seems to be a popular early target. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic reports on Twitter that at least a pair of teams are already showing interest.

The Rays and Marlins are two of the clubs knocking on the door at the outset of the open-market season, per Ghiroli, who indicates there are others as well. It’s not hard to imagine why — though for different reasons with respect to each team.

Kendrick turned in a .344/.395/.572 regular season showing over 370 plate appearances before coming up with two enormously important postseason home runs. He also hit the ball harder than just about anyone in baseball during the 2019 and remains capable of spending at least some time at second base and the corner outfield. He’s a part-time guy, but a pretty darn good one.

For the Rays, Kendrick would presumably function mostly as a right-handed-hitting component in their first base/DH mix, while appearing as needed elsewhere on the diamond. Given their numerous existing options, he’d be one nice piece of the puzzle. The Marlins, meanwhile, would like to up their offensive output while adding some veteran leadership.

Kendrick is a Florida native, Ghiroli notes, but he resides in Phoenix. That would seem to leave plenty of room for multiple possibilities, if geographical preferences will drive his decision at all. It stands to reason that the 36-year-old would like to play again for a contending outfit, all else being equal.

We noted that the Rays made for a nice possible fit in our recent Top 50 Free Agent predictions here at MLBTR, though we ultimately guessed Kendrick would land with the Twins. That prediction was based in part upon the notion that there’d be sufficient interest to drive him into a two-year deal at around $6MM annually, which might be a bit rich for the Tampa Bay org. Ghiroli notes that Kendrick is seeking a short-term arrangement, though it’s not evident whether he has a preference for a one or two-year pact.

Super Two Cutoff Set At 2.115 Years Of Service

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NOV. 5: This year’s cutoff is set at precisely 2.115 days of service, MLBTR has learned.

OCT. 10: This year’s cutoff point to determine Super Two status will be unusually low, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (via Twitter). While an exact cutoff point is yet unclear, McCalvy reports that Josh Hader, who has two years and 115 days of MLB service time (abbreviated as 2.115) will be eligible for arbitration this winter. In essence, that means that Hader is about to become a very well-compensated reliever. That would’ve been the case in the 2020-21 offseason anyway, but he’ll now tap into that earning power a year early. It’s also worth noting that this cutoff point will place Miami’s JT Riddle, who finished the season at 2.118 years of service, into arbitration eligibility as well.

A 2.115 cutoff would already be the lowest Super Two threshold in the past decade. The previous lowpoints in that span came in 2010 and 2013, when the cutoff was 2.122. Last year, it settled at 2.134. If the threshold is any lower this season, others could also be impacted. Arizona’s Luke Weaver (2.112) and Oakland’s Matt Chapman (2.109) are the most notable names within reasonable distance of Hader’s 2.115.

Super Two designation is one of the innumerable quirks to the ever-confounding arbitration system. For the unfamiliar, Major League players earn “service time” for every day spent on an MLB roster. One year of MLB service is defined as 172 days — despite the fact that there are more days than that in the regular season. (This year’s season was 186 days; again — hooray for quirks!)

Upon reaching three years of service time, all players become eligible for salary arbitration. Prior to that point, teams are effectively able to set (most) player salaries at any rate they wish, so long as it is north of the league minimum. Many teams have formulas they use to determine pre-arbitration salaries, and it’s quite rare for pre-arb players to earn even $1MM (barring a long-term extension). Arbitration is the first point at which players and their agents can begin negotiating with teams regarding their salary, though arbitration prices still typically fall shy of open-market value.

The “Super Two” wrinkle further complicates matters. The top 22 percent of players (in terms of total service time) with between two and three years of service also are considered eligible for arbitration and termed “Super Two” players. Any player who falls into that service bucket and spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on a 25-man roster or the Major League injured list become eligible a year early and then go through the arbitration process four times.

In the case of Hader, he’s now in line for a fairly considerable salary. He has 37 more innings, eight more saves and a whopping 116 more strikeouts than his own teammate, Corey Knebel, had when reaching arbitration as a Super Two player last season. Knebel landed a $3.65MM salary, which Hader should handily top. Beyond that, Hader’s subsequent raises in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be built off a higher base because of his early entry into the arbitration process.

Once the exact cutoff is determined, we’ll add projections for Hader, Riddle and any other newly minted arbitration-eligible players to our just-released annual list of arbitration projections.

Marlins Offer Coaching Position To Hensley Meulens

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Nov. 4: The Marlins have made Meulens a formal offer to join their 2020 staff, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Meulens, however, has received interest from multiple clubs since being eliminated from the Giants’ managerial search, per Morosi, so it seems he could yet have a decision on his hands.

Nov. 1: The Marlins are in talks with current Giants bench coach Hensley Meulens about a role on their staff in 2020, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Meulens has been told he’s not a finalist in San Francisco’s search for a new manager, per the report, and it seems there’s now a chance the organization will lose him entirely. SiriusXM’s Craig Mish adds that Meulens would likely step into the role of hitting coach if the two sides do work out a deal. He’d pair with bench coach and “offensive coordinator” James Rowson, recently hired away from the Twins, to work on reshaping the organization’s approach at the plate.

Meulens, 52, has spent the past decade on the Giants’ coaching staff under the recently retired Bruce Bochy. He’s been bench coach for the past couple of seasons but previously served as the club’s hitting coach and is also responsible for outfield defense and positioning instruction. Meulens was the Giants’ hitting coach for each of their three World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014. He also has five years of experience as a minor league hitting coach and served as the manager for Team Netherlands in both the 2013 and 2017 World Baseball Classics.

A native of Willemstad, Curacao, Meulens would bring an important bilingual presence to a Marlins club that has a number of key players from Venezuela, Colombia, the Dominican Republic and Cuba both on the big league roster and rising through a rapidly improving farm system. Meulens played parts of seven seasons in the Majors — teaming with recently extended Marlins manager Don Mattingly as a Yankee from 1989-93 — and also played professionally in Japan (1994-96), Korea (2000) and Mexico (2001-02).

Marlins Believe In Young Pitching Core

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  • The Marlins feel much differently about the future of their pitching staff. This season definitely opened some eyes to the burgeoning talent in Miami’s rotation, but the best may be yet to come. Miami management believes they have a dozen or more identifiable arms in their system with big-league rotation potential, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jose Urena has been the big name of the rotation in year’s past, but his future is uncertain with Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Jordan Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez all competing for regular roles next year.

Marlins To Decline Club Option On Starlin Castro

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As expected, the Marlins will decline their $16MM option on infielder Starlin Castro, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Castro will instead receive a $1MM buyout and head into the free agent market for the first time in his career.

Castro’s eventual departure from Miami has been more or less forecast ever since he was acquired from the Yankees as part of the Giancarlo Stanton blockbuster in December 2017.  Castro’s inclusion in the deal was largely due to help balance out the salaries involved in the trade, and the Marlins have spent much of the last two seasons exploring trades for Castro as part of the club’s efforts to pare down payroll and move veteran talent.

Castro didn’t entirely help his trade value by posting a pair of decent but unspectacular seasons in Miami.  2018 saw him hit .278/.329/.400 over 647 PA, with a 101 wRC+ and 102 OPS+ indicating slightly above-average offense and solid glovework upping his value to 2.3 fWAR.  He took a step back to 1.3 fWAR and a 91 wRC+/94 OPS+ in 2019 largely due to a horrific opening three months of the season, as Castro hit only .230/.258/.313 over his first 345 plate appearances.

His much improved hitting from July 1 onward will help Castro’s chances in free agency, and he also boosted his versatility by playing third base for the first time in his Major League career, appearing in 45 games at the hot corner last season.  Though a ten-year veteran, Castro still doesn’t turn 30 years old until March, making him both younger and with a lot more experience as an everyday performer than several of the other second-tier options on the second base/third base market.

The Marlins will move forward with prospect Isan Diaz penciled into second base, though since Diaz only had a .566 OPS over his first 201 Major League plate appearances, Miami is likely to look for a veteran backup or multi-position player who could step into second base duty if Diaz still needs more minor league seasoning.  Re-signing Castro is “not a priority early in free agency,” Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald hears from a source, though the Marlins haven’t totally closed the door on the possibility of a Castro return.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The rebuilding Marlins will continue to add low-cost veterans and potential hidden-gem younger players as they continue to assemble what they hope will eventually be a winning core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: $22MM through 2020 ($16MM player option can vest for 2021)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $10.25MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $5.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Marlins achieved one major bit of winter business before the regular season even ended, inking manager Don Mattingly to a two-year extension with a mutual option for the 2022 season.  The longest-tenured skipper in Marlins history will continue his work mentoring the young faces in Miami’s dugout, though given the contract’s length, it’s an open question as to whether Mattingly will get a chance to manage a Marlins team that is actually trying to win.

As the Marlins come off a 105-loss season, some pieces have started to come into place in South Beach.  Brian Anderson has two seasons of quality results under his belt, and he’ll line up as the everyday option at either third base or (less likely) in right field, allowing the Fish a bit of flexibility in their offseason shopping.  The newly-extended Miguel Rojas and top prospect Isan Diaz can handle middle infield duties, though Diaz is still getting his feet wet and could stand to be supplemented. Jorge Alfaro is still something of a work in progress, but he’ll continue to function as Miami’s everyday catcher. The Marlins also netted some good results from such unheralded pickups as Garrett Cooper, Harold Ramirez, and Jon Berti.  In the rotation, Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith showed some potential, though Smith’s production tailed off in the second half.

The larger question is, as with Mattingly, whether any of these players could conceivably be part of the next winning Marlins team, given that the Fish still look to have at least two more rebuilding years ahead of them.  This wouldn’t be a case of cutting payroll since almost every member of Miami’s roster is a pre-arbitration player, though CEO Derek Jeter and president of baseball operations Michael Hill could look to turn any single one of the club’s notable performers into a younger/higher-upside player (or players) who could help the team down the road.

To that end, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Anderson, Alcantara, Alfaro, or Smith (who already drew some attention at the trade deadline) dealt if the right offer came along.  On the other hand, after so much roster churn in recent years, the Marlins’ front office could also see value in some simple continuity as part of the building process, plus 2020 is another year for the team to see what they really have in several of these still-developing players.

That question also extends to some Marlins who have yet to make the leap.  Diaz struggled over his first 201 Major League plate appearances, though Miami will give its hopeful second baseman-of-the-future plenty of time to develop.  The same might not be true of Lewis Brinson, who is entering his final option year and (through 709 PA) has shown no sign of being able to hit MLB pitching.  Brinson’s struggles have only been magnified by the fact that he was the headliner of the prospect package the Marlins received from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade — in fact, it could be argued that each of the three other players (Diaz, Jordan Yamamoto, Monte Harrison) in the deal have now surpassed Brinson in importance to the Marlins’ future plans.

While the Marlins would obviously love to see Brinson finally break out in 2020, the club will look to add at least one veteran outfielder to help carry the load.  Cooper, Ramirez, Austin Dean, and utilityman Berti will also be in the outfield mix, and reinforcements could be on the way relatively early in the season if minor leaguers Harrison and Jesus Sanchez play well at Triple-A.  Sanchez, acquired from the Rays in the Nick Anderson/Trevor Richards trade last July, will be looking to regain some of his prospect stock after a disappointing 2019 season.

Cooper could be deployed at first base, or the Marlins could opt to add a more proven bat at the position to upgrade one of the league’s worst offenses.  Free agents like Justin Smoak or Mitch Moreland wouldn’t break the bank, or a multi-positional player (e.g. Howie Kendrick, Brock Holt) could be penciled in at first base but really move around the diamond to help at various spots.  If Diaz were to struggle again, for instance, a Kendrick or a Holt could end up seeing more time at second base.

In terms of adding a veteran presence, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Fish re-sign some of their veteran additions from last season.  Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson have both expressed an interest in returning to the Marlins, while Martin Prado is a beloved figure in Miami who would also seemingly have a place as a bench piece, if he decides to continue playing.

Even though Miami will buy out Starlin Castro’s option, a case could be made that he could also be re-signed to an inexpensive one-year deal to play third base (and provide second base cover for Diaz), with Anderson moving into right field until the younger outfielders were ready.  Castro is coming off an unusual season that saw him post a dreadful .571 OPS over the first three months (345 PA), only to then deliver a .909 OPS over his final 331 plate appearances. The veteran clearly has something left in the tank and will be only 30 years old on Opening Day.  The more likely scenario, however, is that the Marlins will let Castro leave after two seasons.

With Prado and Castro both off the books, the Marlins have only $33.625MM in payroll committed to guaranteed salaries and projected arbitration salaries, and that number could drop even moreso if the Fish choose to non-tender Adam Conley or JT Riddle.  Given the organization’s usual M.O., it’s hard to project that the Marlins could spend the extra money on a higher tier of free agent, but the financial flexibility is there if Jeter and Hill see an intriguing opportunity. Notably, there are a few relatively youthful corner outfielders kicking around that may not all find the kinds of opportunities they are hoping for with other organizations.

One tactic the Marlins could explore is taking on an undesirable contract from another team, with the other club throwing in a couple of interesting prospects to sweeten the pot.  Such a bad-contract swap is also the only way the Marlins could possibly unload Wei-Yin Chen, who is single-handedly responsible for almost two-thirds of Miami’s current payroll, though parting with their own young talent to further pare an already barebones payroll probably won’t make sense for the Fish.  If Chen can’t be dealt, the team might simply release him to make extra roster space.

Alcantara and Smith headline the rotation, with Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Robert Dugger, and potentially Jose Urena in the mix for the other starting jobs.  Urena finished an injury-shortened 2019 season pitching out of the bullpen in September once he returned from the injured list.  Given that he was a solid workhorse in both 2017 and 2018, the Marlins will likely stretch him out as a starter again in Spring Training before considering more relief work.  Alternatively, due to the fact that he’s only controlled through the 2021 season, Urena could also be a candidate to be moved this winter, although Miami would hardly be selling at a high point.

There’s plenty of room in this young rotation for a veteran innings eater or bounce-back candidate, and if the Marlins were to spend some money, this might be the most logical spot.  Free agents like Alex Wood, Tanner Roark or Matt Harvey could all fit, or the club could look into signing Miami native Gio Gonzalez.

Any veteran arm signed for either the rotation or bullpen could also double as a possible trade chip come the deadline, as was the case in 2019 with Sergio Romo, who was flipped to the Twins last July.  Since Romo is a free agent again, the Marlins could look into a reunion, if they want an experienced closer to handle the ninth inning rather than Ryne Stanek.  Also picked up in that Rays trade last July, Stanek didn’t pitch well as a Marlin and has continued to struggle when used as anything other than an opener; Stanek has a 2.71 ERA over 83 career innings as an opener and a 4.93 ERA in a more conventional relief capacity.  Given these unusual numbers, one wonders if the Marlins would consider deploying an opener/bulk pitcher strategy for one of their rotation spots, with Stanek kicking off the game before another pitcher handles the majority of the early work.

Another last-place finish is likely awaiting the Marlins in a tough National League East next season, but there is opportunity this winter for the team to get creative in figuring out ways to continue planting the seeds for its next winning team.

Marlins To Hire James Rowson To Coaching Staff

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The Marlins are hiring James Rowson as their new bench coach and offensive coordinator, according to a tweet from ESPN’s Jeff Passan (link). His role as “offensive coordinator,” a term typically associated with the NFL, will see him implement hitting philosophies throughout various levels of the organization, per the report.

Rowson most recently served as hitting coach for the “Bomba Squad” Twins, who collected a record 307 home runs in 2019. Before his hire in Minnesota in 2017, Rowson worked with as a minor league hitting coordinator with the Cubs and Yankees, logging a few months of MLB hitting coach experience when he took over for Rudy Jaramillo in Chicago in 2012.

Rowson, a former ninth-round pick of the Mariners in the ’90s, will look to ignite a Miami offense that struggled mightily in 2019. The club’s collective .241/.298/.375 line indicated that the rebuilding Marlins failed to get on base or drive the ball with consistency, as a collection of veterans (Curtis Granderson, Martin Prado) and underperforming youngsters (Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz) contributed to a cumulative club 79 wRC+. The Bronx-bred Rowson will, however, have above-average performers in Brian Anderson and Garrett Cooper at his disposal, while young players like Jorge Alfaro and rising prospects such as Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez all offer the potential for breakout.

Cesar Puello Elects Free Agency

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3:15PM: Puello has elected free agency, the Marlins announced.

6:48AM: The Marlins outrighted well-traveled outfielder Cesar Puello to Triple-A New Orleans on Wednesday night, per the Pacific Coast League transactions page. As a player who has been outrighted previously, Puello will have a chance to elect free agency.

Puello, a 28-year-old Dominican, has worked in the Mets, Angels, Rangers, Rays, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Marlins organizations over the course of his twelve-year stateside playing career. Though he’s logged a respectable .290/.372/.431 batting line over the course of 3000-plus minor league at-bats, Puello did not debut in the bigs until 2017. This past season marked his longest exposure to major league pitching. His early-season appearances with the Angels saw him in hot form, with a .350/.500/.683 line in a twelve game sample, before a June trade sent him to the outfielder-needy Marlins. Puello never got it going in Miami, and he wrapped up 2019 with a cumulative .248/.356/.384 slash (104 wRC+) in 147 plate appearances.

Puello was one of thirteen players handed suspensions in 2013 due to their link to the Biogenesis scandal. Then a top-50 prospect with the Mets, Puello was forced to miss 50 games that year owing to his involvement with the Florida clinic accused of providing PEDs to ballplayers.

Marlins Hire Wellington Cepeda As Bullpen Coach

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  • The Marlins are set to hire Wellington Cepeda as bullpen coach, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Cepeda, 42, managed the Diamondbacks’ rookie-level Arizona League affiliate in 2019, his first season as a minor-league skipper. Cepeda has a background as a minor-league pitching coach, Frisaro adds. He’ll work with pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, Jr., who is returning for a second season. Cepeda will have his work cut out for him, as Miami’s young bullpen was among MLB’s worst in 2019.
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