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Marlins Rumors

MLBTR Poll: Grading Miami’s Corey Dickerson Signing

By Dylan A. Chase | December 28, 2019 at 11:30pm CDT

The Marlins’ signing of outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year, $17.5MM deal will not go down as this offseason’s most surprising–in fact, his ultimate guarantee was right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $15MM pact back in November. In terms of context, the deal also sits snugly alongside Kole Calhoun’s signature on a two-year, $16MM deal with Arizona earlier this month.

Dickerson might be called the ideal of a solid regular. He’s not an elite defender, his 2018 Gold Glove notwithstanding, but his facility with the stick has made him a must-start during stints with the Rockies, Rays, Pirates and Phillies since breaking into the league 2013. The thirty-year-old owns a .286/.328/.504 slash line with 115 home runs in nearly 800 career games, with a 117 wRC+ suggesting he’s been nearly 20 percent better than an average hitter since 2013. By the latter metric, he’s performed comparably with players like Starling Marte (117 wRC+) and Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+) over that span.

Dickerson has recorded 2.6 fWAR or better in three separate seasons as a full-timer, despite nagging injuries throughout his career; if he can perform to those levels for the Fish, there should be a lot of excess value in this deal. Of course, Dickerson may not spend his entire tenure with Miami, as the limited term of this deal might make him an attractive trade target at the ’20 and ’21 deadlines, assuming his continued health and Miami’s continuation in a textbook rebuild pattern (perhaps not a safe assumption considering Miami’s similarly savvy Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar pickups this winter).

Dickerson’s signing does also carry a few implications beyond just shoring up Miami’s corner outfield, as his relatively light commitment is further evidence that the ever-heightening AAV peaks achieved by premium performers in recent winters have yet to trickle down in the form of substantive raises for middle-class players. Moreover, Dickerson’s relative merits when pitted against free agents Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos may cast some doubt on the ability of those players to secure truly hefty guarantees before camp breaks.

Regardless, Miami’s signing of Dickerson reads like the move of a team inching its way out of a rebuild by committing a reasonable amount of money to a relatively stable, if imperfect, player in his prime; the club may yet have a few more losing years ahead, but it’s hard to accuse a team of “tanking” when they add players of his caliber.

Let’s open the floor: how do you grade Miami’s Dickerson addition? (Poll link for app users)


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MLBTR Polls Miami Marlins Corey Dickerson

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Marlins To Sign Corey Dickerson

By George Miller | December 28, 2019 at 2:08pm CDT

The Marlins are finalizing a two-year deal with free-agent outfielder Corey Dickerson, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The contract will pay the 30-year-old $17.5MM over the next two years, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal is pending a physical.

In adding Dickerson, the Marlins have done well to fill a big need in the corner outfield, a vacancy they sought to address with one of Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, or Yasiel Puig. With Calhoun latching on with the Diamondbacks, it was reported this morning that the Fish were focusing their efforts on Dickerson rather than Puig, who’s undeniably a bigger name but whose offensive production veered in the wrong direction last year. Dickerson also adds a lefty bat to a lineup that’s otherwise heavy on right-handers; second baseman Isan Diaz is the only other projected starter who’s a true lefty.

Dickerson has a Gold Glove to his name, but if advanced metrics are to be believed, that caliber of performance is the exception, not the rule, with Dickerson, who was credited with saving 16 runs in left field in 2018—in all other years, he’s been worth -14 DRS. His calling card is his above-average offensive output; he’s been pretty consistently good at the plate since 2017, posting a wRC+ of at least 115 (15 percent better than average) in each of the last three seasons.

The addition of Dickerson is the latest in a series of solid additions for a Marlins team that finished with baseball’s third-worst record in 2019. They already nabbed Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar earlier this month, claiming the former on waivers and the trading for the latter after the Orioles designated him for assignment. Veteran catcher Francisco Cervelli, signed last week, is another significant addition. They’re by no means dominating the offseason storylines by bringing in a handful of low-risk players, but these look like savvy acquisitions for a rebuilding club that has now overhauled one-third of its starting lineup.

Targeting the likes of Aguilar, Villar, Cervelli, and Dickerson on short-term contracts does no harm to the Marlins’ long-term financial outlook and figures to only help the team remain competitive in 2020. At the very least, acquisitions like this represent potential trade chips for a club that might still be a couple years away; still, these moves shouldn’t simply be dismissed as such.

Dickerson should slot in as Miami’s everyday left fielder, with Brian Anderson in the other outfield corner. Lewis Brinson might have another crack at the center field job, but he’ll be on a short leash after a rough couple of seasons. Interestingly, Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports even suggests that Villar could be in the mix for that center field position. He’s played the position only sparingly in his career and hasn’t done so in a game since 2017, but few will question whether he has the speed to patrol the spacious outfield of Marlins Park.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Transactions Corey Dickerson

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Marlins Interested In Corey Dickerson, Yasiel Puig

By TC Zencka | December 28, 2019 at 11:33am CDT

The Marlins, however, seem to be leaning towards Corey Dickerson at the moment, per FNTSY Sports Radio’s Craig Mish (via Twitter). The Fish have outfield prospects knocking on the door (namely, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez), as well as intriguing talent a little further away (JJ Bleday, Victor Victor Mesa, Kameron Misner) – but they continue to explore adding offensive talent for the near-term.

Elsewhere among outfielders, the Marlins remain interested in Yasiel Puig. The volatile Cuban outfielder would certainly entertain Floridians, even if the .267/.327/.458 line he put up for the Reds and Indians in 2019 isn’t necessarily awe-inspiring. He did technically produce at an above-average rate with a 101 wRC+.

The Marlins, however, seem to be leaning towards Corey Dickerson at the moment, per FNTSY Sports Radio’s Craig Mish (via Twitter). The Fish have outfield prospects knocking on the door (namely, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez), as well as intriguing talent a little further away (JJ Bleday, Victor Victor Mesa, Kameron Misner) – but they continue to explore adding offensive talent for the near-term.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Free Agent Market Miami Marlins Notes San Diego Padres Tampa Bay Rays Corey Dickerson Jesus Sanchez Kameron Misner Monte Harrison Shogo Akiyama Victor Victor Mesa Yasiel Puig

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Remaining Needs: NL East

By Jeff Todd | December 26, 2019 at 1:26pm CDT

Quite a few of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have already signed, though there are still a host of players available on the open market. We’ve seen somewhat less action on the trade market, which still features a number of stars and other useful targets.

Those links provide lots of info on the supply side. But what about demand? We’ll run through each division to identify the biggest-remaining needs of each team.

Atlanta Braves [Offseason Outlook]

As they did last time around, the Braves sprinted out of the gates to address multiple key needs. But the club’s biggest question entering the winter — what to do about the departure of star third baseman Josh Donaldson — remains unanswered. It’s a good roster as-is, but the lineup would look a whole lot better with another big bat in the middle of it. If Donaldson can’t be retained, the Braves could look to the trade market at third base or pursue one of the remaining corner outfielders and re-shuffle their internal deck accordingly. The club seems quite settled otherwise but could still explore opportunistic rotation additions.

Miami Marlins [Offseason Outlook] 

The Fish have spent the winter plugging in one-year veterans and jettisoning unwanted relievers. The idea was to create a mix that will improve the results a bit in the near term while simultaneously aiding the development of and avoiding undue pressure on young players. Much of that work is already done, but the team is reportedly still looking to add a power-hitting corner outfielder who’d supplement (or supplant?) recent minor-league signee Matt Kemp. Perusing the roster, it seems there’s also room to pick up a veteran pitcher or two to join the bullpen or perhaps the rotation. That’d become a clear priority in the event of a trade involving Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, or some other pitcher. Presumably, the club will continue to explore trade opportunities involving those and other players while keeping an eye on the waiver wire.

New York Mets [Offseason Outlook]

Aided by a renegotiation of the Yoenis Cespedes contract, the Mets have placed a series of expensive (a combined $25MM+) single-season bets on high-variance veteran pitchers. Having picked up two new starting-capable hurlers, a pair of bullpen pieces, and a part-time center fielder in Jake Marisnick, the New York org has already ticked the boxes it needed to.

So … why doesn’t it feel like GM Brodie Van Wagenen is finished? With a forthcoming ownership transition underscoring the need to win now, the club’s top baseball exec can’t afford to leave any stones unturned in his sophomore offseason. Installing a top-flight center fielder — Starling Marte looks like the best bet — would be at the top of the list, but the club can also explore blockbuster scenarios at other positions. It’s possible to imagine further improvements to the bench and bullpen mix, too. The Mets will be most keen to utilize blocked first baseman Dominic Smith as a trade chip — whether to bring back prospects, shed the Jed Lowrie contract, or deliver a different MLB piece — but younger big leaguers J.D. Davis and Steven Matz could also conceivably be dangled.

Philadelphia Phillies [Offseason Outlook]

The Phils landed two of MLBTR’s top dozen free agents, and they did so for lesser commitments than were necessary to secure quite a few other top players. That’s a nice start, but hardly sufficient to stand out from the other three contending teams in this division. Improving the bullpen remains an unfulfilled priority. While the rotation no longer stands out as a problem, it’s susceptible of being bettered. And the position-player mix doesn’t feel quite finished. The Phillies could choose to utilize Adam Haseley in center field and Scott Kingery at third base. But the lineup would look better with a newly installed regular for at least one of those positions, freeing Kingery to function as a super-sub and reducing the team’s reliance upon the still-unproven Haseley. It’s a tough scene in free agency unless the club reimposes itself in the market for Josh Donaldson. Creative trade exploration seems advisable. The Phils also still must figure out what to do with Odubel Herrera, who’ll be returning from a suspension.

Washington Nationals [Offseason Outlook]

Having finally completed a summit attempt, the Nats face new challenges in a repeat bid. Not unlike the Braves and Phillies, the D.C. roster would look much better with Josh Donaldson added in at the hot corner. If they miss on Donaldson, the Nats could be forced into some difficult and high-stakes trade talks. There’s an opening at second base as well — especially if the club intends to utilize the recently re-signed Howie Kendrick at first base, which is partially dependent upon its decision with regard to Ryan Zimmerman — which creates both need and opportunity.

Youngster Carter Kieboom could be cast into a big role, but the organization probably prefers to see him force his way up rather than relying on him out of the gates. It’s possible to imagine the addition of multiple veteran infielders from a large remaining pool, with a plan to mix and match and adapt over the course of the season. Any of the team’s internally developed reserve players could be supplanted over the next few months. Ditto the holdover fifth-starter and middle-relief options. Another rotation piece (if only for camp competition) and one or more relievers (preferably including a legit setup option) also remain on the list of needs for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, who’s overseeing a huge amount of roster turnover while trying to recover from a (literal and figurative) championship hangover.

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals

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Marlins Sign Francisco Cervelli

By Steve Adams | December 23, 2019 at 10:07am CDT

10:07am: The Marlins and Cervelli are in agreement on a one-year deal worth $2MM, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The contract is pending a physical.

9:40am: The Marlins are “making progress” on a one-year contract with free-agent catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (via Twitter). Frisaro first linked to the two parties earlier this month, pointing out that early in his career, Cervelli was a teammate of Marlins CEO Derek Jeter with the Yankees. Cervelli is represented by Wasserman.

Francisco Cervelli | Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Miami will again deploy 26-year-old Jorge Alfaro as its primary backstop in 2020, but Cervelli would bring a veteran backup to help guide the still-developing Alfaro. Although injuries — primarily concussions — have ravaged Cervelli’s career over the past several seasons, he’s still a 12-year veteran who, at his peak, was one of the top defensive catchers in all of baseball.

This past season, the 33-year-old Cervelli was limited to 48 games and 160 plate appearances between the Pirates and the Braves, during which time he hit just .213/.302/.348. But he’s only one season removed from a much stronger .259/.378/.431 batting line and a career-high 12 home runs in 404 plate appearances. Drawing walks (career 10.3 percent) and avoiding strikeouts (19.2 percent) have always been a part of Cervelli’s game, so if he’s healthy he should be a solid source of on-base percentage who regularly puts the ball in play.

Defensively, Cervelli might not be the standout he once was, but he nonetheless enjoyed a solid season in some regards. Cervelli thwarted eight of the 25 stolen-base attempts against him (32 percent) and logged roughly average framing numbers per Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and Statcast. Cervelli did struggle a bit in terms of blocking pitches and yielding passed balls, though one can also imagine that with better health, there’d be improvement — particularly considering his much stronger track record in that area.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Francisco Cervelli

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Marlins Interested In Francisco Cervelli

By Mark Polishuk | December 23, 2019 at 12:20am CDT

  • The Marlins are trying to work out a contract with catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Injuries have plagued Cervelli over the last several seasons, most notably (and seriously) a series of concussions.  Cervelli was limited to only 48 games for the Pirates and Braves in 2019 due to concussion symptoms, yet it was as recently as 2018 that Cervelli hit .259/.378/.431 with 12 homers over 404 plate appearances for Pittsburgh.  The 33-year-old backstop (notably, a former Yankees teammate of Marlins CEO Derek Jeter) would act as a veteran backup to Jorge Alfaro in Miami.
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Miami Marlins Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers Adolis Garcia Dylan Carlson Francisco Cervelli Joe Musgrove

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Marlins Designate Kyle Keller For Assignment

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2019 at 11:12am CDT

The Marlins announced that they’ve designated right-hander Kyle Keller for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to right-hander Yimi Garcia, whose previously reported one-year contract with Miami is now official.

Keller, 26, was selected to the 40-man roster in advance of the 2018 Rule 5 Draft. At the time, he had just wrapped up an impressive 2018 season in which he logged 52 2/3 innings of 3.08 ERA ball across three minor league levels, averaging 13.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 along the way.

The 2019 season, though, wasn’t as successful. Keller tallied 54 innings of relief in Triple-A and maintained a strong strikeout rate (12.2 K/9), but his results didn’t match up to his 2018 output, due largely to an inability to strand runners (63.2 percent). Keller logged a 4.50 ERA in Triple-A and made his MLB debut late in the year, allowing four runs in 10 2/3 innings (3.38 ERA). But Keller also allowed three home runs in that brief time in addition to eight walks and two hit batsmen.

The Marlins will have a week to trade Keller or run him through outright waivers in hopes of keeping him in the organization.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Kyle Keller Yimi Garcia

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Marlins Sign Ryan Lavarnway, Josh A. Smith

By Steve Adams | December 18, 2019 at 3:22pm CDT

The Marlins announced a series of nine minor league signings on Wednesday, each of which contains an invitation to Major League Spring Training. In addition to confirming their previously reported signing of former All-Star Matt Kemp (more on that here), the Miami organization will bring two former big leaguers to camp: catcher Ryan Lavarnway and right-hander Josh A. Smith. Rounding out the list of non-roster invitees are catchers Brian Navarreto, Santiago Chavez and BJ Lopez; infielders Gosuke Katoh and Christian Lopes; and right-hander Aaron Northcraft.

Lavarnway, 32, has appeared in the Majors in eight of the past nine seasons — 2016 being the lone exception — but never tallied more than 166 plate appearances in a single MLB campaign. He’s a career .211/.270/.343 hitter in 445 trips to the plate at the big league level, and he owns a lifetime .272/.364/.426 batting line in 2055 Triple-A plate appearances spread across nine seasons. Lavarnway boasts a 31 percent caught-stealing rate in Triple-A but has struggled more in the Majors (20 percent).

Lavarnway has typically hovered around average in terms of pitch-framing in the upper minors (with the 2018 season being a notable outlier that saw him rate rather poorly). Miami has Jorge Alfaro and Chad Wallach on the 40-man roster but was thin at catcher beyond that, so the quartet of Lavarnway, Navarreto, Chavez and Lopez will add an influx of depth at the position.

Smith, also 32, pitched in 31 innings for the Red Sox in 2019 and has compiled 158 1/3 frames in the Majors between the Reds, A’s and Red Sox dating back to 2015. He has a career 5.40 ERA and a near-identical 5.37 FIP with averages of 7.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and 1.65 HR/9 to go along with a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate.

The overall profile on Smith isn’t particularly appealing at first glance, but his curveball may have caught the attention of the Marlins. Smith ramped up the usage of his hook to a career-high 23.1 percent in 2019 and logged a career-high 12.1 percent overall swinging-strike rate (15.3 percent on the curve). Statcast pegged the spin rate on Smith’s curve in the 95th percentile among MLB hurlers, so perhaps the Marlins will look to more aggressively utilize that offering in hopes of coaxing better results out of the journeyman 32-year-old.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Brian Navarreto Gosuke Katoh Josh Smith Matt Kemp Ryan Lavarnway

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Marlins To Sign Matt Kemp

By Jeff Todd | December 18, 2019 at 8:57am CDT

The Marlins have struck a minor-league pact with outfielder Matt Kemp, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The deal includes an invitation to MLB camp.

We’ve heard all winter that the Fish wish to add more pop to their corner outfield mix. Kemp definitely has a history of swinging a big stick. He’ll be looking to make a comeback at 35 years of age on the heels of an injury marred 2019 season.

Kemp has had peaks and valleys at the plate throughout his career, though he was at least an average hitter at his low points. He carries a lifetime .285/.337/.485 batting line with 281 home runs through nearly seven thousand trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.

That career output is good for a 121 wRC+ — just a shade less than the 122 wRC+ he produced through 506 plate appearances in a surprise return to the Dodgers in 2018. Kemp ended up moving to the Reds via trade in the offseason, but never got off the ground in Cincinnati.

Kemp ended up appearing in only twenty MLB contests in 2019, a career-low for a player who debuted in 2006. He produced only a .200/.210/.283 slash in his 62 plate appearances with the Reds, striking out 19 times while drawing just a single walk. Kemp was dumped after he suffered a broken rib, an injury that lingered and cut short a brief attempt at getting things going at Triple-A with the Mets.

Even if Kemp is able to rebound at the plate, he’s not going to offer much in the field. But the Marlins will see how he looks in camp and go from there. Odds are Kemp won’t be tasked with an everyday role even if he’s in good form. The impact on the team’s other reputed offseason pursuits remains to be seen, but it seems fair to presume the signing won’t take the club out of the rest of the corner outfield market entirely.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Transactions Matt Kemp

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MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

By Anthony Franco | December 15, 2019 at 8:30am CDT

With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

 

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

 

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Polls Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Nick Castellanos

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