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Checking In On Last Season’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses

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If you can believe it, sub-.500 teams comprised the majors’ five lowest-scoring offenses in 2019. With the offseason a couple months old and with most of the top free agents off the board, those teams have all had time to improve at the plate. But have they? Let’s take a look…

Detroit Tigers (582 runs, 77 wRC+)

  • Among Tigers regulars, only outfielder Nicholas Castellanos (whom they traded to the Cubs in July) and fellow outfielder Victor Reyes posted league average or better numbers last season. But the non-contending club has at least made an effort to upgrade its offense this winter. The Tigers have signed first baseman C.J. Cron and second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who were members of the division-rival Twins last year, as well as ex-Yankees catcher Austin Romine. None of those players will strike fear in the hearts of the opposition, but they’re respectable contributors who should be vast improvements over the hitters the Tigers ran out in those spots in 2019.

Miami Marlins (615 runs, 79 wRC+)

  • Like the Tigers, the Marlins have made a legitimate effort to get better this offseason. They’ve remade a good portion of their infield, where first baseman Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar (who could play a super-utility role in 2020) are now aboard. Miami has also grabbed outfielder Corey Dickerson, who was the most productive offensive player of the trio last season. And former Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli, who was highly valuable in 2018 before concussions helped stall his career in 2019, is in the mix as a backup to Jorge Alfaro. The Marlins should still be a sub-.500 club in the upcoming season, but at least they’ve put in some work to step up on offense.

San Francisco Giants (678 runs, 83 wRC+)

  • Aside from letting go of center fielder Kevin Pillar and deciding not to re-sign catcher Stephen Vogt or third baseman Pablo Sandoval, this has been a quiet offensive offseason for the Giants. Their projected lineup for 2020 includes nothing but familiar faces from last year. So, unless the likes of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and Brandon Crawford channel their younger selves next season, it could be another lean showing for the Giants.

San Diego Padres (682 runs, 88 wRC+)

  • As far as spending on hitters goes, the Padres were one of the active teams in the game during the previous two offseasons. They added first baseman Eric Hosmer on an eight-year, $144MM guarantee two winters ago and third baseman Manny Machado on a 10-year, $300MM pact less than a year back. Neither decision has worked out all that well for the team thus far, and now it has taken a more modest approach. But that’s not to say the Padres have been silent. They picked up high-OBP outfielder Tommy Pham from the Rays, young OFer Trent Grisham from the Brewers and second baseman Jurickson Profar from the Athletics in separate trades. Pham’s the lone member of the trio who inspires much confidence at the plate, but the Padres are banking on all three to help them break a long playoff drought in 2020. And if the team has its druthers, it’ll find a taker via trade for outfielder Wil Myers, but his albatross contract (three years, $60MM) could prevent that from happening.

Kansas City Royals (691 runs, 84 wRC+)

  • The Royals, who lost 207 games from 2018-19, have done little to nothing at the plate this offseason. Third baseman Maikel Franco, who failed to live up to the hype in Philadelphia, joined KC on an affordable contract. There hasn’t been much otherwise, though, and the Royals continue to await left fielder Alex Gordon’s decision on whether to retire. Even if Gordon sticks around, he hasn’t been a legit threat at the plate since 2015. Maybe catcher Sal Perez will provide an impact bat after sitting out all of 2019 because of Tommy John surgery?

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Marlins Designate Austin Dean For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated outfielder Austin Dean for assignment, as per FNTSY Sports Radio’s Craig Mish (Twitter link).  The move will create a 40-man roster spot for Francisco Cervelli, whose signing has now been officially announced by the team.

Dean has seen part-time action for Miami in each of the last two seasons, accumulating a .223/.268/.388 slash line and 10 homers over his 311 career Major League plate appearances.  A fourth-round pick for the Marlins in 2012, Dean has posted some big minor league numbers over the last two years, with a .944 OPS and 27 home runs over 640 Triple-A plate appearances (with the twin caveats of last season’s overall hitting explosion across the Triple-A level, and Dean playing in the particularly hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League).  Dean has spent much of his career as a left fielder, though he has also seen some time in right field and first base, both in the minors and with the Marlins.

Marlins Focused On Adding Relievers

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Now that their deal with left fielder Corey Dickerson has been finalized, the Marlins plan to focus on adding to the bullpen, president of baseball operations Michael Hill indicated on a conference call Tuesday (Twitter link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Among the names the team is considering, SiriusXM’s Craig Mish reports, are Pedro Strop, Brandon Kintzler and Hector Rondon.

Miami has already added Dickerson, Jonathan Villar and Jesus Aguilar to a lineup that ranked 29th in the Majors in runs scored, 29th in on-base percentage and 30th in slugging percentage thus far in the offseason. They’ve also signed Francisco Cervelli to back up Jorge Alfaro and made a handful of minor league signings, headlined by Matt Kemp.

The lineup hasn’t exactly been built up into a powerhouse, but there’s little denying that it looks like a more robust collection of bats than the group trotted out in 2019. However, the bullpen has gone largely unaddressed to this point; the Marlins, rather, have subtracted more relievers from the organization than they’ve acquired. Control-challenged relievers like Tayron Guerrero, Tyler Kinley and Kyle Keller have all been jettisoned from the 40-man roster, much as Austin Brice was earlier today when making room for Dickerson.

Miami has added right-hander Yimi Garcia on a big league deal and righty Ryan Cook on a minor league pact, but the organization has otherwise been quiet when it comes to adding to the ’pen. Current options on the roster include right-handers Drew Steckenrider and Ryne Stanek as well as southpaws Jarlin Garcia and Adam Conley. Last year’s Opening Day starter, Jose Urena, lost his rotation spot and was moved to the bullpen late in 2019, and Hill indicated today that Urena will get another shot at claiming a bullpen role in 2020 (Twitter link via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald)

Obviously, a grouping of Urena, Steckenrider, Stanek, Conley and both Garcias leaves plenty of room for potential augmentation. But the relief market has also thinned out considerably, with Strop, Kintzler and Rondon shifting from middle-tier options at the onset of free agency to some of the most appealing names yet to sign. This patient approach is often necessary for the Marlins or teams in similar rebuilding situations, as some free agents are hesitant to sign with a non-contending club early in the winter (barring an overpay). But as contending clubs spend their money and fill holes on the roster, the allure of high-leverage innings and a guaranteed salary with a rebuilding clubs only increases.

The Marlins did well to wait out the market and sign Sergio Romo to a $2.5MM contract last winter — a move that ultimately netted them first base prospect Lewin Diaz at the trade deadline. Whether it’s Strop, Kintzler, Rondon or another veteran arm, the Miami organization will be hoping for a similarly beneficial result in the coming weeks as they try to add to their stock of relievers on what’ll surely be a short-term arrangement.

Marlins, Ryan Cook Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Marlins and right-hander Ryan Cook are in agreement on a minor league contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). The Excel Sports client would earn $750K upon making the big league roster and could earn an additional $250K worth of incentives to bring the total value of the deal to an even $1MM.

Cook, 32, spent the 2019 season with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but narrowly kept his ERA south of 5.00 and also spent some time with the club’s minor league affiliate. It wasn’t an inspiring season, to be sure, but Cook’s track record nevertheless has its fair share of appeal.

It’s easy to forget that back in 2012, Cook was an All-Star reliever for the Athletics. From 2012-14, he was a vital member of the Oakland relief corps, pitching to a combined 2.60 ERA and a similarly impressive 2.96 FIP. Cook maintained a ground-ball rate north of 46 percent, averaged better than a strikeout per inning and yielded just nine home runs in 190 2/3 innings across that three-year span.

Unfortunately for both Cook and the A’s, injuries began to mount in 2014-15. A forearm strain and shoulder inflammation slowed him over those two seasons, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016. In the five years since the conclusion of that outstanding three-year run, Cook has thrown just 25 2/3 innings at the MLB level — mostly coming with the 2018 Mariners.

The Marlins’ bullpen is anything but settled, which should give Cook a legitimate chance to break camp with the club if he puts together an impressive Spring Training. Drew Steckenrider, Ryne Stanek, Yimi Garcia, Adam Conley, Jarlin Garcia and Jose Urena are all options for manager Don Mattingly in 2020. If Cook can complete his comeback and make it through the season, the Marlins would control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.

Marlins Announce Corey Dickerson Signing, Designate Austin Brice

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The Marlins announced today that they have inked outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year deal, as had previously been reported. Righty Austin Brice was designated for assignment to create roster space.

Dickerson is a well-established hitter who can reasonably be expected to turn in above-average work with the bat. He’s best utilized in a platoon capacity but will presumably be given more opportunities against left-handed pitching in Miami than he would’ve received elsewhere. A surprise defensive darling in 2018, Dickerson graded poorly with the glove last year. The Fish will likely be pleased if they receive palatable fielding.

This signing is the clearest indication that the Marlins want to begin moving in a positive direction in the win/loss column. There’s no real hope of a 2020 surprise, as the organization still lags in present-day MLB ability, but there’s obviously a belief that its worth making some targeted investments — and, perhaps, that Dickerson could be a part of a charge in 2021.

At the same time, the Marlins will part with yet another young pitcher. They’ve already designated Tayron Guerrero, Tyler Kinley, and Kyle Keller earlier in the offseason. Every one of those arms landed on another 40-man roster via trade or claim.

There could also be interest from other organizations in the 27-year-old Brice, who has already bounced around a bit. He’s fresh off of his most successful MLB stint yet, having provided the Marlins with 44 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 2019. Brice reduced the usage of his sinker in favor of his curve and four-seamer, resulting in a boost in strikeouts (9.3 K/9) but also a reduction in groundball induction (42.2%). Statcast figures suggest Brice was successfully able to induce poor contact when he did allow it (.292 wOBA vs. .293 xwOBA), but fielding-independent metrics still weren’t sold on the results (4.87 FIP, 4.79 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA) due in no small part to ongoing home run issues (1.41 per nine).

Unfortunately, Brice also dealt with forearm issues that scuttled his season. His current health situation isn’t really known, but it stands to reason that the Marlins were somewhat less than optimistic about its impact on his outlook.

Angels Acquire Kyle Keller, Designate Jake Jewell

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The Angels have acquired right-hander Kyle Keller from the Marlins for catcher Jose Estrada, according to announcements from both teams. The Angels designated righty Jake Jewell for assignment in a corresponding move.

Keller’s the only player in the two-man trade who comes with major league experience. An 18th-round pick of the Marlins in 2015, Keller debuted in the bigs last season with 10 2/3 innings of four-earned run ball, in which he struck out 11 and walked eight. The 26-year-old spent the majority of the season at the Triple-A level, where he posted a 4.50 ERA/4.19 FIP with a whopping 12.17 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 over 54 innings. Although Keller was at least a useful minor league arm for the Marlins, they designated him Dec. 20.

Jewell, also 26, now finds himself in DFA limbo after struggling in both the minors and majors last season. An Angel since they used a fifth-rounder on him in 2014, Jewell threw a career-high 26 1/3 frames in 2019. However, despite an eye-popping 63.8 percent groundball rate, Jewell only managed a 6.84 ERA/6.67 FIP with 7.86 K/9 against 2.73 BB/9.

In Estrada, the Marlins are getting a 19-year-old who’s coming off his first pro season. Estrada took 176 plate appearances at the rookie level last year and batted .247/.335/.305 without a home run.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jonathan Villar

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Jonathan Villar is projected for a hefty raise in his third year of arbitration eligibility in 2019, thanks to a significant improvement over his performance the prior two years.  Villar hit for a career-high 24 home runs and 73 runs batted in last season, while also hitting .274 and stealing 40 bases.  Villar appeared in all 162 of the Orioles’ games, accumulating 714 plate appearances.  After Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, my model projects him to more than double that amount, with a $5.575MM raise to a $10.4MM salary for 2020.  However, there really are not many useful comparables to work with in Villar’s case.

Very few players with Villar’s service time have similar profiles in terms of home runs and stolen bases. There is only one such player who had more than half as many of each in the last five years — Eduardo Nunez, who also stole 40 bases and hit 16 home runs back in 2016, while batting .288 and knocking in 67 runs over 141 games and 595 PA.  Other than VIllar’s eight extra home runs, Nunez does look similar, albeit with fewer plate appearances (119 less than Villar) and games played (21 less).  Nunez only got a $2.7MM raise, so add in some inflation and the effect of the extra home runs and extra games, and maybe Villar could get close to a $4MM raise, but that is still far short of the model’s $5.575MM raise estimate.

Looking for players with over 700 PA in the last two years, we find Cesar Hernandez from last year and Charlie Blackmon from two years ago, though Blackmon isn’t a comparable since his case relies more on overall hitting numbers than power and speed (.331 average, 34 homers, 104 RBI, 14 steals for Blackmon in 2017).  Hernandez got a $2.65MM raise last offseason coming off a 2018 campaign that saw him post a .253 average, 15 home runs, and 60 RBI, to go along with 19 steals.  This is an obvious floor for Villar, as he should clearly exceed this range.

Also from last year, Didi Gregorius may be a more realistic floor for Villar. He got a $3.5MM raise after hitting .268 with 27 HR and 86 RBI — all similar to Villar — but only stealing 10 bases.  Of course, Gregorius only had 569 PA, far less than Villar’s 714 PA.  Villar should certainly clear $3.5MM as well.

My best guess is Villar gets a raise of around $4MM to $4.5MM.  The model may be estimating high because it is rewarding him heavily for his 714 plate appearances.  Although the model has clearly established that the average effect of more plate appearances really compounds, there may be exceptions in cases like these.  I do not think Villar reaches the $5.575MM raise estimate, so he should land closer to $9MM than the $10.4MM the model forecast.

Marlins To Sign Pat Venditte

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The Marlins have a minor-league deal in place with reliever Pat Venditte, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). It includes an invitation to the MLB side of Spring Training.

Venditte, 34, has thrown only 68 MLB innings to this point of his career. But as journeyman middle relievers go, he’s as interesting as they come. Venditte is a true unicorn of the game: a switch-pitcher who utilizes a customized glove to change his throwing hand depending upon the batter.

Things didn’t work out last year with the Giants, as Venditte received only two appearances in the bigs. But he did work to a 2.85 ERA in 47 1/3 innings at Triple-A, with a healthy combination of 11.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.

Marlins Reportedly Interested In Kim Jae-Hwan

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7:14pm: Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio passes along different information, tweeting that the Marlins are no longer interested in Kim after signing Dickerson.

6:21 pm: The Marlins are showing interest in Korean outfielder Kim Jae-Hwan, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports. Kim has until 4 p.m. CT on Jan. 5 to sign with a major league club after his Korea Baseball Organization club, the Doosan Bears, posted him Dec. 5.

The Marlins are the first reported MLB team to be eyeing the 31-year-old Kim, who debuted in the KBO in 2008 and was a force from 2016-18. During that three-year, 1,806-plate appearance span, Kim amassed 116 home runs with an OPS upward of 1.000, even winning league MVP honors in the last of those seasons. Kim’s numbers took a turn for the worse in 2019, though, as he batted .283/.362/.434 with 15 homers across 574 trips to the plate.

Should the Marlins land Kim, he’d be the second notable outfield addition for the club this winter, joining the just-signed Corey Dickerson. And it could help the Marlins’ cause in this case that they have Trey Hillman on their staff. The first base/infield coach managed against Kim in Korea for two years, as Yoo notes, so he’s quite familiar with his capabilities.

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