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MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

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With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

Where Will Nicholas Castellanos Sign?
Reds 21.52% (5,534 votes)
Cubs 20.26% (5,211 votes)
Giants 17.01% (4,374 votes)
White Sox 16.50% (4,244 votes)
Rangers 13.58% (3,492 votes)
Diamondbacks 4.21% (1,083 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 4.02% (1,035 votes)
Marlins 2.90% (747 votes)
Total Votes: 25,720

 

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

How many guaranteed years will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
Four years 48.70% (7,223 votes)
Three years 31.27% (4,639 votes)
Five-plus years 11.33% (1,681 votes)
Two years 6.67% (990 votes)
One year 2.02% (300 votes)
Total Votes: 14,833

 

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

How much guaranteed money will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
$55-70MM 40.39% (5,574 votes)
$40-55MM 25.72% (3,550 votes)
$70-85MM 19.88% (2,743 votes)
Under $40MM 8.06% (1,113 votes)
Over $85MM 5.95% (821 votes)
Total Votes: 13,801

Trade/FA Rumblings: Arenado, Keuchel, Cards, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Correa

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The Rockies are reportedly willing to listen to offers for their franchise player, third baseman Nolan Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich all but confirmed that’s the case, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays (subscription link).

“Look, this is the time of year where those conversations happen,” Bridich said. “This is the time of year where we at least listen to teams and go, ‘OK, well, should we try to investigate and put something together.’ We have people to do those sorts of things. I can’t sit here and say, ‘No, never, ever.’ Some of this stuff started back at the trade deadline and it’s kind of ongoing.”

Bridich is still of the opinion the Rockies, as presently constructed, can push for a championship in 2020, Groke notes. Arenado, of course, plays an irreplaceable role in that belief. However, with so few above-average third basemen currently available (Josh Donaldson’s a free agent and Kris Bryant may end up on the move via trade), teams could come calling with appealing offers if the Rockies place Arenado on the block. Arenado has full no-trade rights as part of the seven-year, $234MM extension Colorado signed him to last offseason, though he has expressed frustration regarding the Rockies’ nightmarish 2019. So, if a contender tries to acquire him, perhaps the 28-year-old will be open to leaving the Rockies. Regardless of whether a trade comes together, Arenado has the ability to opt out of his contract after 2021.

Here are more rumblings from around the game…

  • A report earlier this week suggested the Cardinals haven’t shown much recent interest in Dallas Keuchel, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club’s “intrigued” by the free-agent left-hander. The Cardinals were also among the teams in on Keuchel last season before he signed a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves in June, thereby ending a shockingly long stay on the market. The soon-to-be 32-year-old didn’t have a great few months in Atlanta, but he should nonetheless do better in free agency this time. MLBTR predicts he’ll sign a three-year, $39MM pact.
  • At this week’s Winter Meetings, Miami and Minnesota discussed a trade that would see the Marlins send right-hander Elieser Hernandez to the Twins for outfielder Jake Cave, according to Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio. While there’s no indication a deal is on the way, the Twins are at least “open” to trading Cave and would like a pitcher in return, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets. Age (24 versus 27) is on Hernandez’s side, but Cave was the better producer in 2019. Cave slashed .258/.351/.455 in 228 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Hernandez put up a 5.03 ERA/5.58 FIP despite logging 9.29 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9 across 82 1/3 innings. Neither player is on track to reach arbitration until after 2021.
  • Although the possibility of the Mets acquiring Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa has been branded as more fantasy than reality, the teams did have “active” talks from November up to this week, Andy Martino of SNY reports. However, those discussions have “fizzled,” per Martino. For what it’s worth, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has told Correa not to worry about a trade. Barring something unforeseen, it appears Amed Rosario will continue as New York’s starting shortstop in 2020.

Marlins Met With Yasiel Puig

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As they continue to pursue outfield pop, the Marlins held a meeting recently with free agent Yasiel Puig, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That adds another intriguing possibility to the club’s widespread search.

The Marlins have been connected to quite a few corner outfielders to this point of the winter, both via trade and free agency. During the Winter Meetings, the club also chatted with the representatives of Avisail Garcia and Corey Dickerson — two of the top alternative corner outfielders remaining in free agency. Kole Calhoun and others are also reportedly under consideration.

Puig seems to be a fascinating target for the Miami organization. The Cuban star would certainly inject some charisma into the roster and suit the club’s desire to improve the appeal of its product for the local fanbase. As we noted in our ranking of the top 50 free agents, however, there has seemed to be one major roadblock: the highly strained relationship of Puig and Don Mattingly, the former Dodgers skipper who now helms the Fish. Evidently, there’s at least a willingness to explore a surprising reunion.

Whether the sit-down leaves Puig as a target or took him out of contention isn’t really known. Apart from his propensity for hijinks — sometimes endearing, other times not — Puig is a bit of a high-risk/high-reward player from a pure baseball perspective. He turned in approximately average overall results with the bat in 2019 and 2016, but was about twenty percent over the league mean in the two intervening seasons. Puig has a rifle in right field and has at times graded as an elite defender, but was average in the eyes of defensive metrics in 2019.

FA Rumors: Rendon, Rangers, Dickerson, Marlins, Shogo, Cards, Cubs

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Third baseman Anthony Rendon came off the open market Wednesday when he accepted the Angels’ seven-year, $245MM guarantee. They were among a few clubs that were willing to commit that long to Rendon, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who tweets that four teams made seven-year offers to the former National. The Rangers didn’t quite go that far, however, with TR Sullivan of MLB.com reporting that they offered Rendon six years plus a club option. Josh Donaldson’s now by far the top third baseman left in free agency, but it doesn’t appear the 3B-needy Rangers are going all-out for him, either.

Now the latest on a couple outfielders…

  • Add Corey Dickerson to the list of free-agent corner outfielders on the Marlins’ radar, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Dickerson plus the previously reported Yasiel Puig and Kole Calhoun are “very much in play” for the offensively challenged Marlins, and they could sign someone by Christmas, Frisaro adds. No one from that trio had a better 2019 at the plate than the 30-year-old Dickerson, who slashed .304/.341/.565 (127 wRC+) with 12 home runs during a 78-game, 279-plate appearance campaign divided between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Thanks to Dickerson’s fairly long track record of above-average offense, MLBTR predicts he’ll earn a two-year, $15MM contract on the market.
  • The Cardinals could emerge as legitimate suitors for free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic reports that they’ve “scouted him extensively.” The 31-year-old Akiyama, who is coming off a successful run in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, would give the Cardinals a lefty-hitting option in the outfield. That’s the type of player president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said he’d like to add.
  • The Cubs, St. Louis’ archrival, have also shown interest in Akiyama. They met with him this week at the Winter Meetings, though he “hasn’t emerged as the team’s top target for that leadoff/center-field position,” Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Chicago’s in the market for CF help after a horrid year from Albert Almora, but it’s unclear where they’ll turn for that.

Marlins To Sign Yimi Garcia

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1:00pm: Garcia’s deal is a Major League contract, per SiriusXM’s Craig Mish (Twitter link).

11:30am: The Marlins have a deal with free agent righty Yimi Garcia, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). He had been non-tendered by the Dodgers. Details of the agreement aren’t known.

Garcia, 29, certainly fulfills the Marlins’ stated desire for relievers that can put the ball in the zone. He has allowed just 30 walks in 159 2/3 career innings at the game’s highest level. Garcia has also averaged more than a strikeout per frame, with 166 over that same span.

The trouble for Garcia — and the likely reason he was non-tendered by the Dodgers despite a modest $1.1MM projected tab — is that he has yet to figure out how to keep the ball in the yard. Garcia has coughed up 22 long balls in his past 84 2/3 innings. But he rates excellently in terms of fastball spin, curveball spin, hard-hit rate and opponents’ exit velocity despite yielding an exorbitant number of homers (15 in 62 1/3 innings this past season). He’d be controllable via arbitration through 2021 if he can right the ship in a reunion with former Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly.

Pitcher Rumors: Cole, LA, Porcello, Roark, Reds, Brewers, Jays, Fish

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The latest on several pitchers…

  • The Yankees won the bidding for right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday, when the two sides agreed to a history-making deal worth $324MM over nine years. But the runners-up, the Angels and Dodgers, made mighty competitive offers in their own right. Both clubs were willing to go to eight years, with the Dodgers’ bid at exactly $300MM and the Angels’ just below that line, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Both teams’ offers included deferrals, whereas the Yankees’ didn’t.
  • Free-agent righty-hander Rick Porcello has a three-year offer in hand, but he’s more inclined to accept a one-year contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. By taking a short-term pact, Porcello would be betting on himself and pinning his hopes on bouncing back next year after a tough 2019. In possibly his last season as a member of the Red Sox, the former AL Cy Young winner struggled to a below-average 5.52 ERA/4.76 FIP, though the durable 30-year-old did pile up at least 170 innings (174 1/3) for the 10th time in his career.
  • Righty Tanner Roark came off the market Wednesday when he reached a two-year, $24MM agreement with Toronto, but a couple NL Central teams were also in the race for him. The Reds, with whom Roark spent the first half of 2019, and the Brewers pursued him, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. So far this offseason, Cincinnati hasn’t yet added to an already formidable rotation fronted by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. On the other hand, the Brewers made a low-risk, possibly high-reward signing Wednesday in grabbing former KBO star Josh Lindblom.
  • Speaking of Lindblom, the Blue Jays put a “significant” offer on the table for him before he headed to Milwaukee, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.  The details of that proposal aren’t known. Lindblom would up agreeing to a three-year deal worth $9.125MM.
  • The Marlins are drawing some interest in righty Jose Urena, Craig Mish of MLB Network reports on Twitter. The Blue Jays are said to be one of the clubs to have called on the hard-throwing 28-year-old, who’s under arbitration control for two more seasons. Fellow Marlins starters Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez have also gotten clubs’ attention, as upward of half the league’s teams have inquired about them, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. However, Frisaro writes that it’s “extremely unlikely” the Marlins will trade anyone from that trio.

Kole Calhoun Market Taking Shape

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We’ve yet to hear much of anything this winter regarding Kole Calhoun — a reflection both of the primacy of starting pitching on the market and the devaluation of the long ball around the league. The veteran corner outfielder has waited his turn as teams chase higher-priority targets.

Now, it seems some attention is beginning to turn to Calhoun and other possible targets. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays, Reds, Brewers, and Marlins all have some level of interest in the 32-year-old.

Calhoun was paid a $1MM buyout by the Angels when his long-time team decided not to pick up his $14MM option. He popped 33 home runs in 2019 and has long been respected as a hard-nosed grinder with a quality glove, but his nice season wasn’t enough to warrant that level of pay even on a one-year deal.

While Calhoun has at times produced well-above-average offensive numbers, his context-adjusted output wasn’t exceptionally productive in 2019. Over 552 plate appearances, he maintained a .232/.325/.467 batting line, good for a 108 wRC+. That was an improvement on his average-ish 2017 and awful 2018 showings with the bat, but hardly an otherworldly effort. Calhoun walked at a career-best 11.1% rate but also went down on strikes at a personal-worst 25.6% clip.

The initial list of potential pursuers doesn’t seem to portend a bidding war. The Fish are biting this year, but don’t seem likely to go wild. They’re also looking at quite a few other options, as are the Reds. The Blue Jays and Brewers both make sense but don’t seem likely to spend past their internal valuations for a player such as Calhoun. Of course, it’s certainly possible that other clubs are in the picture or could join it depending upon outcomes with other segments of the market.

Brandon Nimmo, Eddie Rosario Reportedly Being Discussed In Trade Talks

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While it was overshadowed entirely by a much bigger move, last night’s swap of Nomar Mazara from the Rangers to the White Sox also represented a notable bit of action in the outfield market. The landscape hasn’t changed much since the start of the offseason but could begin to come into focus now that the biggest starting pitching moves have been made.

It seems the Mets are still working things out in their outfield situation. Word is that they’re willing to consider parting with Brandon Nimmo, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). The New York org is reportedly still kicking around concepts with the Pirates regarding Starling Marte, one of the market’s top trade candidates. Some potential trade scenarios could involve the younger, cheaper, and more controllable Nimmo. It’s not specifically clear whether Nimmo is otherwise open for bidding, but it seems the New York org is doing everything it can to land a true center fielder — even if it means parting with the left-handed-hitting OBP machine.

Meanwhile, the Twins are discussing Eddie Rosario with several other clubs, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The 28-year-old has been a mainstay in the Minnesota outfield but dipped a bit last year to a .276/.300/.500 batting line. He did launch 32 long balls and performed better in the on-base department in the prior two seasons. The Twins shouldn’t really need to move salary — Rosario is projected to earn $8.9MM with one more arb season to come — but may see an opportunity to pick up talent (especially in the pitching department) while reinvesting the payroll space and clearing the way for the near-term ascent of Alex Kirilloff.

The potential market for Rosario isn’t yet evident. The Marlins are among the teams with interest in Rosario, per Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). But the Miami organization considers the Twins’ asking price “extremely high” at the moment. That was also the team’s stance with regard to Nomar Mazara, who ended up being dealt instead to the White Sox yesterday. The pursuit of Rosario and Mazara offers some insight into the thinking of the Miami organization. It seems obvious the organization is willing to take on a decent bit of salary and won’t limit itself to players with lengthy control rights. The club has a long-stated desire to add some corner pop and is also exploring the possibilities on the open market.

Marlins Notes: Rotation, Smith

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The Miami Marlins haven’t had a lot to feel good about in recent seasons, but the rebuild is beginning to bear fruit. The Marlins rotation has been a talking point since around the All-Star break of 2019, and though they’re not yet a fearsome unit, they’re worth keeping an eye on. They finished the year 16th in the majors by ERA, 20th by FIP, 14th in HR/9, and 22nd by fWAR. They didn’t generate a lot of groundballs, but that’s playing to strength given their ballpark. The biggest area of improvement looking ahead to next season will be control, as they finished second-to-last with 3.50 BB/9. Still, given where the franchise has been in recent seasons, any unit climbing from the cellar is noteworthy.

That said, the first wave of talent often becomes the last wave of prospect-gathering trade bait. At least for the time being, however, the Marlins aren’t overeager to move their starting pitching. Still, that doesn’t stop teams from asking, particularly about Caleb Smith, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Smith, 28, is the veteran at the front of their young group, and his trade value remains high due to having just over two years of service time. He struggled with the long ball in 2019, but it was an overall successful campaign: 10-11, 28 starts, 4.52 ERA/5.11 FIP, 153 1/3 innings. Smith definitely made strides in securing his spot as a major leaguer, though it would not be surprising were the Marlins to pivot and decide to move him.

Regardless, President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill suggested the Marlins are secure in their starting options heading into 2020, and they’re unlikely to make a major acquisition in that regard, per Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The current group includes Smith, 2019 All-Star Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Jordan Yamamoto, Jose Urena, Elieser Hernandez, and Robert Dugger. Alcantara and Smith are probably the only two with their rotation spots guaranteed. The rest of the group should have no trouble conjuring a sense of urgency, as top prospect Sixto Sanchez finished the year in Double-A, as did Edward Cabrera, perhaps their most promising arm after Sanchez.

The Marlins felt secure enough in this group (and the intriguing group of prospects coming behind them) that they dealt Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks for young shortstop Jazz Chisholm. The position player side of the ball should soon see an influx of intriguing young talent get their chance in the big leagues. Along with Chisholm, the Marlins added JJ Bleday with the 4th overall pick in the draft and acquired another top prospect in Jesus Sanchez from the Rays. Chishold and Sanchez are likely to reach the majors in 2020, along with centefielder Monte Harrison. Chisholm, Sanzhez, and Harrison are the Marlins #3, 4 and 5 ranked prospect by MLB.com. On both sides of the ball, patience will carry the day for now in Miami. Given the gusto with which their division mates have approached the offseason, Miami is all but assured to finish 2020 in the NL East cellar for the third consecutive season.

Rangers Exploring Outfield Trades, Pursuing Chirinos Reunion

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8:58pm: The Cardinals are also in the mix for Mazara, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. That jibes with their goal of acquiring a lefty-hitting outfielder.

6:17pm: The White Sox are “working hard to land” Mazara, as Jim Bowden of SiriusXM first reported. As for Chirinos, the Astros, Tigers, Rays and Pirates join the Rangers in the market for him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

1:04pm: The Rangers have remained busy on the market, with MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reporting that the club is active on multiple fronts (Twitter links). While it stands to reason that the team is still considering moves in the rotation, the attention now is on the position player side after several notable pitching additions.

It has long seemed likely that the Rangers would explore possible swaps involving its existing outfielders. But the team now appears to be engaged in a somewhat dedicated manner. Sullivan says the intention is to “move one of their extra left-handed hitting outfielders,” with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, and Shin-Soo Choo named as possibilities.

That’s a highly varied group of players. Mazara is a mid-arbitration player that hasn’t turned the corner in the majors but remains quite youthful. Calhoun hasn’t had the same degree of opportunity (and hasn’t logged as much service) but showed well with the bat last year. He’s also still a question mark defensively, as is the aging Choo, who can still hit but isn’t worth the remainder of his big contract.

The Rangers are said to be chatting with the Diamondbacks about some of these players; the clubs were connected last night regarding Mazara. Evidently talks between the Rangers and Marlins didn’t advance. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio tweets that the Fish were turned off by the asking price for Mazara, a former top prospect.

Meanwhile, there’s “mutual interest” in a new deal with backstop Robinson Chirinos. That’s rather an interesting development, considering the Texas organization surprisingly declined its option over him last fall. The replacement plan fell apart, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored, while Chirinos flourished with the cross-state Astros.

The 35-year-old Chirinos and the Rangers are amply familiar with one another, as he played with the team for six seasons. It seems the sides carry no ill will over the way things ended. The catching market has moved rather swiftly to this point, leaving Chirinos and Jason Castro as the top available options.

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