Market Chatter: Dodgers, Castellanos, Didi
With the Winter Meetings upon us, let’s round up the latest chatter on the market to start the morning …
- The Dodgers could play a fascinating role in the proceedings. As the L.A. front office works on major potential free agent moves, it’s also dabbling in the trade market involving some existing pieces. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter that the club is open to discussing trade scenarios involving A.J. Pollock and Enrique Hernandez, along with the previously rumored Joc Pederson. Pollock just finished the first season of a complicated free agent contract, while Hernandez and Pederson each project to earn significant arbitration salaries in their final seasons of eligibility. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently broke down a potentially complicated offseason for the seven-time defending NL West champs.
- Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos may be down a suitor, but the news seems to be good. The Marlins are “out of the bidding,” according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (via Twitter), owing to the fact that the auction ask has “sky rocketed” in the wake of the surprisingly lofty Mike Moustakas deal. Castellanos has always seemed a tricky player to predict. The youthful, bat-first performer might in past years have been a candidate for a top-of-the-market contract. But recent trends have not favored defensively marginal sluggers. We guessed he’d get four years and $58MM; now that Moustakas has topped that guarantee, perhaps Castellanos can be expected to go higher. His market still appears to be taking shape but could conceivably come together quickly over the next few days.
- Free agent shortstop Didi Gregorius appears “likely” to secure a significant, multi-year deal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Heyman hears that Gregorius could land an average annual value of $14MM to $15MM — which is just what we predicted he’d get (over three years) in our top-50 free agent ranking. It’s still unclear where Gregorius will land. Heyman suggests that the bidding may go too high for the Reds, possibly leaving the Phillies and unknown others to pursue the veteran infielder.
NL Notes & Rumors: Cards, MadBum, Keuchel, Padres, Fish, Bucs
Even after re-signing Adam Wainwright earlier this offseason, the Cardinals are keeping an eye on the free-agent market for starting pitchers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains. The team has “had conversations” regarding left-handers Madison Bumgarner, Wade Miley, and Dallas Keuchel, according to Goold, who adds that St. Louis prefers to have right-hander Carlos Martinez return to a starting role after spending all of 2019 as a reliever. If that happens, the Cardinals may have a full complement of starters with Wainwright, Martinez, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas. For now, Martinez is recovering nicely from the right shoulder procedure he underwent in October.
Here’s more from the National League….
- This has been an aggressive offseason for the Padres, who have signed or traded for Drew Pomeranz, Jurickson Profar, Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham over the past few weeks. The club’s not done yet, though, as it continues trying to find ways to break its long-running playoff drought next season. General manager A.J. Preller said (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) that the team’s still “actively involved in conversations” and “looking to improve our roster” as next week’s Winter Meetings approach. Could that mean signing one of the top starting pitchers available? Not necessarily, as Cassavell writes that the Padres “seem determined not to overpay for the current options on the market.” However, Cassavell suggests the Padres won’t stand pat when it comes to their starting staff.
- The Marlins are seeking relievers who can do a better job limiting walks than their bullpen cast in 2019 did, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com relays. Miami’s relief corps finished the year with the second-highest walk rate in the game (4.37 per nine), and as president of baseball operations said, “you can’t defend a walk.” Frisaro names longtime Yankees reliever Dellin Betances as a potential target for the club in free agency, though it’s unclear whether that’s anything more than speculation. Betances was often dominant before missing almost all of last season with multiple injuries, but control hasn’t necessarily been his forte. The 31-year-old walked more than 6.5 batters per nine as recently as 2017.
- Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic (subscription link) tackles the Pirates’ lack of spending in free agency, noting they’re last in the majors in that department since owner Bob Nutting took control in 2007. The Pirates have been loath to hand out multiyear contracts under Nutting, and while they have a new general manager in Ben Cherington, their lack of spending probably won’t change much. This is a new frontier for Cherington, whose previous GM gig came with the deep-pocketed Red Sox. But Cherington did fail on a couple big-money signings in Boston, as the Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval deals went down as regrettable for the club.
White Sox Claim Tayron Guerrero
The White Sox have claimed righty Tayron Guerrero off waivers from the Marlins, per a club announcement. He had been designated for assignment on non-tender day to clear roster space.
Guerrero pumps 99 and increasingly proved capable last year of drawing swings and misses (13.3%) while also getting his first pitches over for strikes (63.4%). But he hasn’t yet figured out how to consistently convert his physical tools into big-league outs.
Last year, Guerrero averaged over seven walks per nine innings to go with 8.4 K/9 and an ugly 6.26 ERA. Perhaps the Chicago organization has mechanical or pitch usage ideas to help the towering hurler as he moves from South Beach to the South Side.
Marlins Notes: Park Dimensions, Outfield, Catcher, Villar, Aguilar
Changes are coming to Marlins Park, as the team announced Wednesday that the fences will be moved in and new synthetic grass will be installed prior to Opening Day 2020. “In going through the process of evaluating the playing surface at Marlins Park in 2019, we set out to find a solution to combat the challenges we have experienced with growing natural grass in Marlins Park,” CEO Derek Jeter said in announcing a partnership with Shaw Sports Turf.
As far as the park dimensions, the center-field and right-center field walls will each be moved in by 12 feet, making the distance to straightaway center an even 400 feet, while the right-center power alley will now be 387 feet deep. “We made the decision to adjust the distance of the outfield fence, which will now be more in line with the field dimensions you see across many of today’s ballparks,” said Jeter.
Here’s more out of Miami…
- The Marlins are looking for free-agent outfielders who are willing to sign one- and two-year contracts as they look to bolster their lineup in 2020, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro lists Avisail Garcia and Yasiel Puig as potential fits for the club, whereas Nicholas Castellanos, another appealing target, is likelier to secure a lengthier pact. Puig, of course, has a long and checkered history with manager Don Mattingly dating back to the pair’s days with the Dodgers, although presumably if talks between the two sides begin in earnest, they’ll work to bury whatever hard feelings (if any) still exist. Garcia, meanwhile, was linked to Miami last week, and the fit makes plenty of sense on paper; MLBTR predicted that Garcia would land with the Fish when ranking our top 50 free agents at the outset of the offseason. Recently non-tendered Steven Souza Jr., too, “will be explored” as a possibility, per Frisaro. The former Rays right fielder missed most of the past two seasons with the D-backs due to injury but topped 30 homers back in 2017.
- Frisaro also suggests that the Marlins will be in the market for a part-time catcher to pair with Jorge Alfaro, pointing out that free agent Francisco Cervelli and Jeter were teammates when Cervelli first arrived on the scene with the Yankees. The 33-year-old Cervelli’s career has been slowed considerably by concussions in recent seasons — including just a 48-game effort in 2019 due to concussion symptoms — but he hit .259/.378/.431 with the Pirates as recently as 2018 and has been an on-base machine throughout his career.
- The Marlins plan to utilize newly acquired Jonathan Villar in a super utility role rather than play him at just one position, as Mattingly explained to Kyle Sielaff and Paul Severino in a podcast appearance. In addition to his customary second base and shortstop, Villar figures to be deployed at third base and in the outfield at times. Jesus Aguilar, meanwhile, will be given ample opportunity to cement himself as the Marlins’ primary first baseman next season, Mattingly suggested. A return to 2018 form for Aguilar, who hit .274/.352/.539 with 35 homers that season, would be a particularly positive development for Miami. Unlike Villar, who is a free agent next winter, Aguilar can be controlled through the 2022 season.
Marlins Acquire Jonathan Villar
The Marlins have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Orioles, as Craig Mish of MLB Network first reported (via Twitter). Lefty Easton Lucas is going back in return.
The Marlins have designated JT Riddle and Tayron Guerrero to create roster space. Previously dropped from the Baltimore 40-man, Villar was projected by MLBTR to earn $10.4MM in arbitration.
Villar enters his final season of arbitration control, so he’s not necessarily a long-term asset for the rebuilding Marlins. That said, it’s not hard to understand the thought process here. Villar has been a productive player the past few seasons, especially in 2019. Last year, he slashed .273/.339/.453 (107 wRC+) while playing in all 162 games for Baltimore. He started 158 of them somewhere on the middle infield. Between that durability, defensive profile and offense (bolstered by elite baserunning), Villar was worth exactly 4 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs. Finding that level of player for around $10MM isn’t easy.
Miami has Miguel Rojas and prospect Isan Díaz ticketed for much of the club’s middle infield work, so it’ll be interesting to see how manager Don Mattingly deploys Villar. Rojas, while a gifted defender, has never hit much, so it’s possible he’ll take on more of a utility role with Villar in the fold. It’d be a bit more surprising to see Villar cut into Díaz’s playing time. Speculatively, though, Díaz has faced some questions about his ability to stick at second base coming up through the minors. Perhaps Miami could look to expose him to other positions as they identify who shapes up as a long-term piece.
Riddle and Guerrero, meanwhile, will head out to make way for Villar and Jesus Aguilar, who was acquired from Tampa Bay on waivers. Riddle, a 28-year-old infielder, has never hit in parts of three seasons in Miami, combining for a .229/.269/.368 slash over 718 plate appearances. Guerrero, also 28, flashed power stuff out of the bullpen but never got quite as many swings and misses as one might expect. With an untenable 13.6% career walk rate, he ran out of leash in Miami.
It’s possible Villar and Aguilar could themselves wind up as trade candidates next season. If they produce, Miami could be motivated to flip them off to a team more positioned to contend in the short-term. Given the low acquisition costs of today’s moves, it’s hard to question the logic.
In Lucas, Baltimore brings aboard a recent 14th round pick out of Pepperdine. GM Mike Elias voiced an expectation that Lucas could someday mature into a back-end starter (via Roch Kubatko of MASN), but he was not rated among the Marlins’ top prospects. Instead, the decision to waive, and eventually trade, Villar seems motivated almost entirely by a desire to clear his projected salary off the books.
Marlins Claim Jesus Aguilar
The Marlins have claimed first baseman Jesus Aguilar off waivers, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). He had been cut loose recently by the Rays.
Aguilar projects to earn $2.5MM via arbitration. That was too rich for the Rays, who have other options on hand and weren’t going to roll that much on a bounceback from a player who struggled after landing in Tampa Bay.
The Fish will hope that a move down the Florida coast cures what ails for Aguilar, who never clicked in 2019 after a breakout 2018 showing. If he can prove himself worthy of a significant role — Garrett Cooper may have something to say about that in camp — then Aguilar could be a nice bounceback candidate who could provide some offensive pop for the Marlins.
Marlins Release Wei-Yin Chen
The Marlins announced that left-hander Wei-Yin Chen has cleared waivers and been released. This move boils down to little more than a formality, as Chen was designated for assignment last week and no team was ever going to claim the remaining $22MM on his contract (which expires at the end of the 2020 season).
Chen, now 34, was a steady source of quality innings from 2012-15 in Baltimore, pitching to a 3.72 ERA in the hitter-friendly AL East while averaging 29.25 starts and 176 innings per year. That durability and reliability led the Marlins to invest a whopping five-year, $80MM contract in the lefty when he hit the free-agent market, but the deal went south almost immediately.
Chen barely kept his ERA under 5.00 and tossed just 123 1/3 innings in his first year with the Marlins. A UCL injury wiped out nearly all of his 2017 season and much of the 2018 campaign, and he pitched just 68 1/3 innings of ineffective relief work in 2019. Overall, he recorded a dismal 5.10 ERA in 358 innings with Miami.
Now that he’s a free agent, Chen is free to sign with any club, and a new team would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the Major League roster. That sum would be subtracted from the $22MM owed to Chen by the Miami organization, but at this point the Marlins have accepted the fact that they’re on the hook for the vast majority of his remaining guarantee.
Marlins Interested In Avisail Garcia
The Marlins are among the teams pursuing free agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). But they’re only one of “many” interested organizations, per Heyman.
In our top 50 free agent ranking, we predicted that Garcia would end up with the Miami organization. But we didn’t see an exceptionally strong market developing for his services. While Garcia has some real positives working in his favor, he has some limitations and there aren’t all that many teams with obvious need in the corner outfield.
The real question is whether multiple teams will dream on Garcia’s skillset. Over the past three years, he’s a .288/.337/.473 hitter over 1,476 plate appearances. That’s substantially above average. Garcia graded as a high-quality performer in the field and has exceptional speed — not that you’d necessarily know it from his work on the bases. (Fangraphs grades him a -3.5 run runner.)
You can also focus on the negatives if you prefer. Garcia doesn’t hit a lot of home runs and doesn’t walk much. Instead, he’s highly reliant on his hard contact finding gaps. He sported a .392 BABIP in his productive 2017 season but dipped to .271 in a down 2018 effort.
As Heyman notes, some teams may well see greater value in Garcia than the other top right-handed-hitting corner options. Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos will presumably seek a fair bit more money, but neither is overwhelmingly better than Garcia. Yasiel Puig is also an option, but some organizations may not have interest in his hijinks. (The Marlins seem like a great fit for Puig but for his rocky history with manager Don Mattingly.)
Derek Jeter On Marlins’ Offseason Plans
Marlins CEO Derek Jeter addressed his organization’s outlook and near-term spending plans in an appearance yesterday. David Wilson of the Miami Herald was among those to cover the chat.
Jeter offered up a bit of a soundbite when he responded to a question about pursuing a given player that the organization likes in free agency. “We’ll go get him,” Jeter provided.
There was a proviso, however. “If a guy fits with our plan and what we’re trying to do, we’ll go get him,” Jeter continued. “I should say, make an attempt to get him.”
There’s a price for every team on every player of interest. But the Fish won’t necessarily be swimming in the deep end just yet. “We must be responsible,” Jeter explained.
Nobody expected the Marlins to plunk down major cash for a premium free agent or to clog up their roster with an array of veterans. In a broadly competitive National League landscape, the Miami roster is obviously far shy of contention-quality.
Still, it’s arguably time that the club begin moving towards a winning outfit after two seasons under Jeter’s helm. And there are opportunities for value in free agency, even for a team that has no plausible hope of winning during the term of a contract. Beyond the veteran leadership component, some wise investments can generate trade returns (and perhaps stave off grievances from the players’ union).
So, what does a “responsible” offseason look like? Details were not forthcoming, unsurprisingly, but Jeter did suggest the focus was less on payroll and more on roster space and opportunity. While there’s certainly some corporate-speak in there, there’s also some underlying merit.
[RELATED: Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins]
Jeter spoke of the “challenging year” ahead, with the team “filling gaps” while “not blocking the young prospects.” It stands to reason there’ll be some exploration of more opportunistic pursuits, though that wasn’t an item raised by the soon-to-be-Hall-of-Famer.
At the end of the day, the ongoing focus is clear. “We have to stick with the plan,” says Jeter, “and our plan is to build a system the right way, which we’ve made a lot of progress in two years.”
Marlins Notes: Free Agents, Castellanos, Urena, Chen, Mejia
While the Marlins have made it clear that upgrading the offense is a priority this winter, the team would prefer to stay away from long-term contracts so as not to block its younger position players, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Any number of veterans could fit as short-term adds for 2020, though it does mean the Marlins likely won’t be signing Marcell Ozuna or Nicholas Castellanos, two free agents Miami was rumored to have interest in signing. Jackson notes that the Fish aren’t keen to give up the draft pick necessary to sign Ozuna (who rejected a Cardinals’ qualifying offer), while Castellanos is probably also unlikely, though the Marlins “could enter the bidding if he’s still available in a few weeks and willing to accept a shorter deal.” One would imagine that if Castellanos was open to a short-term deal, however, he might prefer to take such a contract with a contending team rather than the rebuilding Marlins.
Some more from South Beach…
- Also from Jackson’s piece, “the Marlins are leaning toward tendering” a contract to Jose Urena, who is projected for a $4MM salary in arbitration this offseason. After solid results in 2017-18, Urena struggled to a 5.21 ERA over 84 2/3 innings in a season hampered by injury, and it’s possible Miami could now opt to use him as a reliever rather than the rotation. Even for a low-payroll team like the Marlins, $4MM doesn’t seem like too expensive a sum for a pitcher with Urena’s resume, though Jackson notes that Miami could tender Urena a contract now and then release him before Opening Day (thus paying only a fraction of his agreed-upon salary) if they don’t like what they see in Spring Training.
- After a busy day of roster additions and subtractions on Wednesday, president of baseball operations Michael Hill discussed the team’s moves with reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro and Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel). The most notable transactions was Wei-Yin Chen being designated for assignment, which all but officially ended the southpaw’s disappointing tenure in Miami after signing a five-year, $80MM deal in the 2015-16 offseason. Chen still has one year and $22MM remaining on that contract, though the DFA “was not about money. It was about building the best and deepest 40-man roster to allow us to compete in 2020 and beyond,” Hill said. Since Chen wasn’t expected to be a big contributor next season and his trade value was virtually non-existent, it isn’t a shock that the Marlins felt that Chen’s roster spot was better used to protect a young player from the Rule 5 Draft.
- All in all, six players were added to the 40-man in advance of the Rule 5 deadline — shortstop Jazz Chisholm, first baseman Lewin Diaz, and right-handers Sixto Sanchez, Nick Neidert, Humberto Mejia and Edward Cabrera. It seems like Mejia was the only member of the group who wasn’t a no-brainer, as his inclusion on the 40-man “took a lot of discussion among our group,” Hill said. “He battled injuries in his history, but you’re talking about a very physical right-handed pitcher with three pitches and he’s an extreme strike-thrower. We feel he’s a future major league starter and we didn’t think we should leave that profile exposed.” As Hill noted, Mejia “pitched his way onto the roster” following a strong 2019 season that saw the righty post a 2.09 ERA over 90 1/3 innings at the A-ball and high-A ball levels.