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Marlins Have Continued Interest In Bryan Reynolds

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The Marlins looked into a Bryan Reynolds trade with the Pirates prior to the trade deadline and were rebuffed, though that hasn’t stopped the team from trying again.  The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reports that the Fish revisited talks with the Pirates before the lockout, even if “the odds are against” the chances of Reynolds ultimately heading to Miami.

In essence, nothing seems to have changed regarding Pittsburgh’s stance on a Reynolds trade, whether to the Marlins or any of the multiple other teams (including the Mariners, Yankees, Astros, Guardians, Brewers, and Braves) who have reportedly shown interest in the All-Star over the last seven months.  The center fielder is the rare roster piece that the Pirates aren’t too open to trading, as the Bucs feel their next competitive window will open while Reynolds is still a productive regular.  Reynolds is controlled through the 2025 season and would still seem to have several prime years ahead of him, as he only turns 27 years old tomorrow.

This mix of skill and contractual control also makes Reynolds a prime trade target, hence the long list of teams interested in his services.  The Marlins are perhaps better equipped than most to meet whatever the Pirates’ gigantic asking price would be for Reynolds, as Miami is deep in talented young pitchers who are either close to the majors or have already made an impact at the big league level.

It isn’t surprising that the Fish would keep asking about Reynolds, nor is there any real harm in continuing to check in just in case the Pirates have lowered their demands.  Discussing one trade could end up laying the groundwork for another deal, either now or down the road.  Perhaps related to this idea, there’s obviously some rapport between the Marlins and Pirates front offices, as the two teams completed a notable trade in November that sent catcher Jacob Stallings to Miami for a three-player package.

Offense and position-player help in general was a stated need for the Marlins heading into the offseason.  The club has thus far been aggressive in trading for Stallings and Joey Wendle (from the Rays), and Jackson writes that the Marlins have had trade talks with at least seven teams, though nothing was particularly close to being finalized before the lockout halted all big league roster activity.

In general, Jackson writes that the Marlins are “shooting high in their search for another impact bat,” and might not turn to second-tier options until the larger targets are off the table.  Jackson feels a trade is perhaps more likely than another free agent signing, though Miami has been active on that front as well in signing Avisail Garcia to a four-year, $53MM free agent deal.  A true center fielder like Reynolds might be preferable to playing Garcia mostly every day up the middle, but the Marlins are comfortable enough with Garcia’s center-field ability that corner outfielders like Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki, or Nick Castellanos are still on the club’s radar.

Quick Hits: Bregman, Taillon, Van Horne

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Astros third baseman Alex Bregman was cleared to hit today for the first time since undergoing surgery on his right wrist in November, reports Mark Berman of Houston’s Fox26 (Twitter link with video). Though he played through it, Bregman injured his wrist in September, an issue that came to light only when teammate Carlos Correa told Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein about it during the World Series. The extent to which the injury played a role in Bregman’s postseason struggles isn’t entirely clear, but it’s likely to have had at least some effect given his .217/.304/.300 postseason line across 69 plate appearances, including a meager .095/.200/.143 in 25 trips to the plate during the Astros’ World Series loss to the Braves.

The injury came at the end of what was a forgettable season by Bregman’s high standards. After following a second-place MVP finish in 2019 with a solid but unspectacular 2020, Bregman missed the first two months of the 2021 season with a quadriceps injury and saw a major dip in his power numbers, posting only a .422 slugging percentage against a .507 career mark (and a top-notch .592 in 2019).

Some other baseball tidbits from around the league…

  • Yankees pitcher Jameson Taillon discussed his ongoing ankle rehab with former Yankees workhorse David Cone on the latter’s podcast this week. The 30-year-old Taillon once again acknowledged that he remains about a month behind his typical offseason throwing program, jiving with the report he gave last December. More encouragingly however, is the right-hander’s claim that he isn’t feeling any lingering pain from his surgically repaired ankle. While his current regimen consists of throwing 3-4 times a week at much less than full, mid-90’s velocity, this marks another positive step forward in the right-hander’s rehab process. Taillon was a league average arm last year, sporting a 4.30 ERA in 144 plus innings, but has demonstrated the ability to be more than that throughout his career. More positive news as Taillon ramps back up will be welcome for a Yankees club that has a number of solid rotation options but only a few that don’t come with health concerns of their own.
  • Per a report from Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, longtime Marlins radio announcer Dave Van Horne announced that he is “essentially retiring” after declining the team’s offer to return to the organization in 2022 in a reduced capacity. The 82-year-old Van Horne retires after 53 years of broadcasting at the major league level. After a 33-year tenure broadcasting for the Montreal Expos, Van Horne pivoted to an upstart Marlins team at the end of 2000. In his lengthy career, the veteran sportscaster called three perfect games, thirteen no-hitters, narrated the 2003 Marlins successful World Series run, and was awarded the Ford C. Frick Award from the Baseball Hall of Fame in recognition of his broadcasting contributions. We at MLBTR extend a hearty congratulations to Van Horne for an illustrious career.

Marlins Signed Erik Gonzalez To Minor League Contract

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In a move that flew under MLBTR’s radar during the pre-lockout transactions frenzy, the Marlins signed utilityman Erik Gonzalez to a minor league deal in late November.  Because the Pirates outrighted him off their 40-man roster during the season, Gonzalez (with over three years of MLB service time) had the option of electing free agency this winter, and will now look for a new opportunity in South Beach.

Incumbent utilityman Jon Berti and newcomer Joey Wendle each already provide Miami with a lot of versatility, though positional flexibility is also Gonzalez’s calling card, as he has made at least one big league start at every position on the diamond except catcher and pitcher.  Much of Gonzalez’s experience has come as an infielder, as he has played mostly shortstop and third base over his six seasons with Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

Between his versatility and his particularly solid glovework at the hot corner, Gonzalez has struck around big league rosters despite a lack of offensive production.  Gonzalez has only a .245/.276/.345 slash line to show for 853 plate appearances in the majors, and he also hit a modest .269/.311/.392 over his minor league career (3287 PA).  Injury problems haven’t helped, as Gonzalez was sidelined for much of the 2019 campaign due to a fractured clavicle, and he also missed a big chunk of time this past season with an oblique strain.

Marlins Announce Front Office Promotions

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  • The Marlins announced a series of front office promotions, including DJ Svihlik to Senior Director of Amateur Scouting, Adrien Lorenzo to Senior Director of International Operations, Geoff DeGroot to Director of Player Development, and Hector Crespo to Director of Minor League Operations. The full list can be found via the club’s official announcement.

Cameron Maybin Announces Retirement

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Longtime major league outfielder Cameron Maybin announced his retirement this evening. The 34-year-old appeared in fifteen major league seasons, suiting up with ten different clubs between 2007-21. He spent the bulk of that time — four seasons apiece — with the Padres and Marlins.

“I’ve played this game since I was 4 years old,” Maybin wrote as part of his announcement, the full text of which is available on Twitter. “Three decades later, my love for baseball is only matched by the love I have for the family that’s supported me every step of the way. … Although my journey as a professional baseball player ends here with the announcement of my retirement, my work in this game is just getting started. I’m excited for what lies ahead, including my work with the Players Alliance in our effort to provide access and opportunity for the next generation of Black ballplayers.”

Maybin was a first-round pick back in 2005, selected tenth overall by the Detroit Tigers. At just 19 years old, Maybin made quick work of his minor league competition and drew praise from a number of publications. Baseball America regularly ranked the speedy outfielder among the top ten prospects in the game, doing so from 2007 until he exhausted prospect eligibility in 2009.

Though he made his Major League debut for the Tigers in 2007, a franchise-altering trade sent Maybin, along with a young Andrew Miller and others, to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Irregular playing time but continued minor league dominance made Maybin a target of another trade just a few years later, when the Padres acquired him to be their starting center fielder for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.

San Diego took well to their new center fielder, as Maybin broke out with a 40-steal, 103 OPS+ showing in his first year on the West Coast. That performance, combined with Maybin’s stellar glove up the middle, resulted in a 5-year $25MM extension before the 2012 season. Before the contract’s expiration, Maybin was dealt in yet another high-profile trade. In this deal, new Padres general manager A.J. Preller made his presence felt by acquiring closer Craig Kimbrel in an Opening Day-beating deal with the Braves.

After a year in Atlanta, Maybin bounced around between eight teams, providing clubs with speed and modest offense in the outfield and off the bench. During this stretch, Maybin had a resurgent year when he reunited with the Tigers in 2016, sporting a 118 OPS+ in 94 games. He pushed his offense to new heights in 2019, with a strong .285/.364/.494 (127 OPS+) showing in 82 games for an injury-ravaged Yankees team.

Maybin was set to look for 2022 opportunities as a veteran depth option for clubs. Instead, he’ll eschew a complicated free agent market and retire a career .254/.323/.374 hitter with 187 steals.

MLBTR congratulates Maybin on an excellent career, and wishes him the best of luck with his Players Alliance endeavors and elsewhere.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022.  With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.

This list is by no means exhaustive.  Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact.  It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout.  While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.

Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt).  However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen.  It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts.  Onto the list…

Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons.  In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure.  Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic.  With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.

Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign.  It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).

Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes.  Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans.  Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.

Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March.  The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal.  Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.

Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee.  With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon.  The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season.  For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns.  There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.

Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross’ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023.  It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild.  However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames.  Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.

Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023.  Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles.  There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal).  If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.

Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts’ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options.  While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015.  There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.

Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.”  This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021.  Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.

Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish.  Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations.  The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.

Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team.  Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known.  Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized.  The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.

Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023.  An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars.  Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year.  There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim.  With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.

Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019.  If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year.  Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.

Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign.  If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining.  While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning.  One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise.  Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.

Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end.  New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout.  Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.

Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term.  That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement.  The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job.  Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.

Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year.  The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season.  If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.

White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length.  Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series.  Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades.  Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.

Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records.  Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change.  It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason.  Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.

Evaluating The Marlins’ Rotation Trade Options

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The Marlins’ abundance of riches in the rotation has led to trade speculation for quite some time, particularly given Miami’s desire to land a controllable outfielder. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last month that the Fish were amenable to dealing from their starting pitching surplus. They’ve since thinned out the depth a little bit by trading Zach Thompson to the Pirates as part of the Jacob Stallings deal, but it’s possible they’re open to another move that addresses the position player group.

It stands to reason rival teams will be in contact with Marlins general manager Kim Ng and her staff whenever the transactions freeze comes to an end. With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at which pitchers could come up in discussions:

Best Combination of Value/Potential Availability

According to Morosi, the Marlins’ early deliberations about the possibility of trading a starter revolved around their three hurlers with between three and four years of big league service time. Sandy Alcantara has since signed a record-setting extension for a pitcher in that service bucket, so he’s not going anywhere. That leaves two starters as Miami’s most straightforward candidates for this kind of move:

Pablo López — López has been quietly excellent over the past two seasons. He’s got a 3.26 ERA across 160 innings since the start of 2020, including a 3.07 mark this past season. There’s not much to nitpick in his statistical profile. The 25-year-old uses a five-pitch mix. He’s got plus control, misses a few more bats than average and — thanks mostly to one of the sport’s best changeups — rarely gives up hard contact. With three years of control and a modest $2.5MM projected arbitration salary, López would have a ton of trade value if he’d gotten through the 2021 campaign fully healthy.

Yet the situation’s complicated by a shoulder injury that cost him essentially the entire second half. López landed on the IL in mid-July and didn’t return until the final day of the season, when he worked just 1 2/3 innings in a deliberately abbreviated start. His velocity returned to peak levels and it’s possible López’s shoulder problem proves nothing more than a blip, but any team looking into an acquisition this offseason will surely do their due diligence on a medical evaluation.

Elieser Hernández — Hernández missed much of the 2021 campaign because of a pair of long-term injuries. He lost two months early in the year to biceps inflammation. In his first start back after that absence, he strained his right quad while running the bases and missed another couple months. Those absences limited him to 51 2/3 frames of 4.18 ERA ball. Hernández doesn’t throw hard, and he couldn’t sustain the massive 32.1% strikeout rate he posted over a six-start showing in 2020. But he still missed a decent amount of bats with both his slider and changeup, and he rarely hands out free passes.

Like López, he comes with three years of what should be affordable arbitration control. At age 26, Hernández has value, but it’s not at the same level as his rotation mate. In addition to his overall lack of volume over the past couple seasons, Hernández is a fly-ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact, particularly on his fastball. That’s led to significant home run troubles even in the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park, and teams in more hitter-friendly environments may worry he’s too prone to the longball to be successful. Perhaps curtailing the use of his fastball and leaning more heavily on his solid secondary weapons could allow him to mitigate those concerns a bit.

Back-of-the-Rotation Depth Options

Braxton Garrett — Garrett’s stock has dipped since he was selected seventh overall in the 2016 draft. He’s made a few MLB starts over the past two seasons, though, and Garrett had a 3.89 ERA with decent strikeout and walk rates in Triple-A this past season. He’s not going to headline a deal for a controllable outfielder, but he could be of interest to clubs as a secondary or tertiary piece.

Nick Neidert — Neidert is in a similar bucket as Garrett. He’s a formerly well-regarded prospect who has had a decent amount of minor league success but hasn’t impressed in limited big league time. The righty rarely misses bats but possesses very strong control.

Cody Poteet — Potent debuted with seven starts this past season, working to a 4.99 ERA across 30 2/3 innings before suffering a season-ending MCL sprain. He’s not likely to have a ton of value and the Fish will probably hold onto him into the season, but he did miss a decent amount of bats for a sixth/seventh starter in his limited showing.

Highly-Regarded Young Pitchers/Top Prospects

It’d be a surprise if the Marlins trade anyone in this group — each of whom could see their value increase substantially if they take a reasonable developmental step next season. It’s not out of the question the Fish take calls on anyone in this group, but they’re perhaps more relevant as a reminder of the enviable collection of young pitching that could facilitate a deal involving someone else on the roster.

Edward Cabrera — Cabrera’s first seven MLB starts didn’t go as hoped. He’s one of the sport’s most highly-regarded pitching prospects and posted massive strikeout rates in the high minors though, and he averaged almost 97 MPH on his heater in the big leagues. It’s possible the Marlins consider moving Cabrera, but he’d likely have to be a key piece of a deal for a controllable star in the Cedric Mullins or Ketel Marte mold for that to happen.

Jesús Luzardo — The return from the A’s for Starling Marte at last summer’s trade deadline, Luzardo continued to struggle over the final couple months in Miami. The 2021 season was a disaster for the young southpaw, but he’s only a year removed from being ranked among the top ten overall prospects by Baseball America. The Marlins liked him enough to land him one-for-one for their star center fielder a few months ago, so it seems likely they’ll give him a chance at a rebound.

Max Meyer — The third overall pick out of the University of Minnesota in the 2020 draft, Meyer dominated at Double-A during his first pro season. He’s one of the sport’s top prospects. As with Cabrera, it’d be a surprise if he’s available and he’d only be part of a deal for a star.

Sixto Sánchez — Sánchez, a top prospect who headlined the J.T. Realmuto return from Philadelphia, impressed over his first seven MLB starts in 2020. He missed the entire 2021 campaign due to a shoulder issue that required surgery. He’s expected to be ready for next season, but it’s not an opportune time for the Marlins to consider a trade.

The Likely Unavailable All-Star

Nobody in the Marlins rotation would bring back more than Trevor Rogers. The former first-round pick was an All-Star and the National League’s Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. Coming off a season in which he posted a 2.64 ERA/3.72 SIERA across 133 innings, Rogers looks like a potential top-of-the-rotation stalwart for years to come. He’s controllable through 2026 and would bring back an absolute haul — likely headlined by one of the sport’s top few position player prospects — if the Marlins ever decided to make him available. That’d be an incredibly bold bet on the strength of the other rotation arms, though, one which the front office probably wouldn’t give much thought.

López and Hernández are the Marlins’ best candidates for a pitcher-for-position player swap. Given the attrition rates of pitchers, it’s arguable the front office should hold onto as much depth as possible to give themselves plenty of cover for potential injuries or underperformance. Yet there are plenty of options of varying pedigree Ng and her staff could consider moving in the right deal, a testament to the organization’s commitment to building the pitching pipeline in recent years.

Marlins Hire Roman Ocumarez As International Director

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  • The Marlins have hired Roman Ocumarez as the team’s new international director, according to ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Twitter link).  Ocumarez comes to Miami from the Astros, where he worked as a scout and most recently as an international scouting supervisor.  Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are just a few of the notable signings credited to Ocumarez, with that particular trio already providing a huge return on the Astros’ total investment of $40K in bonus money.  The Marlins will look for Ocumarez to continue that success at finding hidden gems, and carrying on the Marlins’ own history of finding and developing quality international prospects.
  • Christian Vazquez has begun playing winter ball in Puerto Rico, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that Vazquez feels the extra work will help him bounce back from a disappointing year at the plate.  The Red Sox catcher hit only .258/.308/.352 in 498 plate appearances, and he is now in the final year of his contract after Boston exercised its $7MM club option on Vazquez’s services for 2022.  Obviously, better numbers will help re-establish Vazquez as a reliable starting catcher and line him up for his next deal, whether that contract could come with the Sox or another team.  There has already been an indication that the Red Sox are looking beyond Vazquez, as the team was reportedly close to acquiring Jacob Stallings from the Pirates before Pittsburgh ultimately dealt the catcher to the Marlins.  Speier observes that Vazquez decided to play winter ball of his own volition, as the Red Sox aren’t allowed to be in contact with players due to the lockout, and might well have not permitted the veteran backstop to participate under normal circumstances.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins sprinted through much of their offseason dealings in the week prior to the MLB lockout, making their biggest free-agent signing under the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group, swinging a pair of trades and extending their top arm. What’s left when the transaction freeze lifts?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcantara, RHP: $56MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout of $21MM club option in 2027)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $53MM through 2025 (including $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $10MM through 2023
  • Anthony Bass, RHP: $4MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
  • $3MM owed annually to Yankees, through 2027, as part of Giancarlo Stanton trade
  • Total 2022 salary commitments: $26.5MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $142MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Miami’s four-year, $53MM contract with Avisail Garcia crossed one of the team’s top items off the wishlist, adding a power-hitting corner outfielder to a lineup that ranked 28th in the Majors in home runs this past season. The four-year term was a surprisingly big bet on a player who does most of his damage against left-handed pitching and has, in two of the past seasons, seen his end-of-year results at the plate clock in well below average. Garcia has hit well in the other three of those five campaigns, and the cumulative result is a solid .278/.335/.464 slash (113 wRC+).

Joining him as newcomers in the lineup will be former Rays infielder Joey Wendle and former Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings. Neither will add much in the way of pop, but Wendle gives the Fish a true super utility option who’s posted a .271/.326/.425 slash over his past 685 plate appearances. Wendle can handle any of second base, shortstop or third base quite well, and the Marlins could give him some outfield reps as well. He’ll be in the lineup more often than not, even if he won’t have a set everyday position.

Stallings, meanwhile, gives the Marlins one of the best defensive backstops in the game and a high-end framer to work with their young pitching staff. He’s hit .246/.333/.371 across the past two seasons and will serve as a major upgrade, on both sides of the ball, over the since-traded Jorge Alfaro (dealt to the Padres on Dec. 1).

Acquiring three new bats obviously represents a pretty sizable chunk of the Marlins’ offseason lifting, but they’re not done shopping just yet. General manager Kim Ng has already made clear that she hopes to add another outfielder to the bunch. Center field is still somewhat up in the air, though Ng said after signing Garcia that the Marlins believe he can play center if needed. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, that’d open the possibility of the Marlins pursuing another corner-outfield option, although playing Garcia in center seems suboptimal from a defensive standpoint. Miami has been tied to Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Eddie Rosario, but Castellanos and Schwarber are likely beyond their price range.

Adding another corner option and playing Garcia in center would be something of a surprise, but the free-agent market lacks a true, everyday option in center at this point. There are some center fielders available (e.g. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, Albert Almora Jr.), but none who profile as everyday options offensively. Meanwhile, there are plenty of corner bats who have some experience in center (e.g. Rosario, Joc Pederson), but none who’d profile as a regular in center from a defensive perspective.

If there’s one corner outfielder in particular who makes sense in Miami, it’s perhaps NPB star Seiya Suzuki, whose posting window will resume once the transaction freeze lifts. A star with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp, Suzuki will sign with a big league team in advance of his age-27 season. For a team that’s looking to continue improving but won’t be a division favorite in 2022, Suzuki is an ideal add. He’ll still be in his prime several years down the road, perhaps when Miami’s prospect core has further bolstered the MLB roster. There’s risk in signing a star player who is yet untested against MLB pitching, but that uncertainty also helps to tamp down the price point. Since 2018, Suzuki has batted .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He just won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in right field this past season. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, Suzuki becomes a much more interesting name to ponder.

However, the most straightforward path for the Marlins finish off their outfield would be to add a center fielder via the trade market, though the few available options would be tough to pry from their current teams. The Orioles and Pirates will at least listen to offers for Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds, for instance, but both players are controlled four more years and would come with through-the-roof asking prices. It’s a similar story with Arizona’s Ketel Marte, who’s guaranteed $8MM in 2022 before the team has a $10MM club option for 2023 and a $12MM club option for 2024. He’s a bit more expensive and has one fewer year of control, but Marte is the most established player of that trio.

The Marlins do have a wealth of young pitching and managed to acquire Wendle and Stallings without dealing from their very best young arms, but any of Mullins, Marte or Reynolds would require parting with several young talents, likely headlined by a pair of legitimate top prospects.

There could be other, less-talked-about options to pursue. Oakland’s Ramon Laureano will miss the first month-plus of the season while finishing out an 80-game PED ban, but that could perhaps drop the price on him a bit. He’s controlled another three seasons. Kevin Kiermaier will surely be available once again, and while he wouldn’t provide the offense the Fish are hoping to add, he’d follow the Stallings mold in providing one of the most notable defensive upgrades possible.

Speculating further, Miami could try to effectively purchase a prospect or two by bailing the Yankees out of the remainder of their Aaron Hicks deal — they’ve certainly acquired plenty of other former Yankees. Or, perhaps they could go in the other direction and buy low on a former top prospect like Seattle’s Taylor Trammell, who has yet to establish himself and may already be squeezed out of the long-term outlook with the Mariners. There’s a match to be made between the pitching-rich Marlins and the Twins, too, if Miami is comfortable playing Max Kepler in center field regularly.

Whatever route the Marlins go in the outfield, they’ll surely want to keep some playing time free for 24-year-old Jesus Sanchez, who hit 14 home runs in just 251 plate appearances as a rookie this past season. Sanchez’s 31.1% strikeout rate will need to come down, but he slashed .251/.319/.489 (116 wRC+), securing himself a lengthier look moving forward. Also in line for a larger look is 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz, who hit .296/.356/.427 (albeit with a rather fortunate .380 average on balls in play) after coming over from the Astros in the Yimi Garcia trade. Former top prospect Monte Harrison is out of minor league options and could soon be out of opportunities if and when Miami adds another outfielder, given the options in line ahead of him.

That’s a lot of focus on one outfield spot for Miami, but that’s due largely to the fact that the lineup is otherwise mostly set. Stallings is locked in at catcher, and the Marlins have Jesus Aguilar (first base), Jazz Chisholm (second base), Miguel Rojas (shortstop) and Brian Anderson (third base) rounding out the infield. The aforementioned Wendle and fellow infielder/outfielder Jon Berti provide backup all around the field, while underrated slugger Garrett Cooper and prospect Lewin Diaz provide backups at first base.

In the event the DH is added to the National League, Aguilar could spend more time there in deference to the defensively superior Diaz. If Diaz needs more time in Triple-A, the Marlins could simply let Aguilar and Cooper share first base/DH duties. There’s perhaps room for another addition here to deepen the lineup, but don’t expect the Marlins to break the bank and sign Castellanos, Schwarber or another bat of that magnitude.

In the rotation, the Marlins are largely set, unless they want to bring in a veteran on a minor league deal just for additional depth purposes. Sandy Alcantara, who signed a five-year, $56MM extension that set a record for pitchers with between three and four years of MLB service time, will anchor the staff after ranking fourth in the Majors with 205 2/3 innings pitched this past season. He’ll be followed by breakout lefty Trevor Rogers, who notched a 2.64 ERA through 25 starts as a rookie in 2021. Righties Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez have spots largely assured, health permitting. Lefty Jesus Luzardo may have the inside edge on the fifth spot, but flamethrowing top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera will get their opportunities in 2022 as well.

Even beyond that top seven, the Marlins have enviable depth. Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett, Cody Poteet, Paul Campbell and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man roster and all have some big league time under their belts already. The Fish also still have 2020 No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer rising through the ranks. Fellow top prospect Jake Eder will miss 2022 due to Tommy John surgery but is highly touted in his own regard. Right-hander Eury Perez elevated his profile with a huge 2021 season in A-ball, and lefty Dax Fulton is also well-regarded.

Some of those arms — particularly those already on the 40-man — could end up in the bullpen, which is the other area the Marlins could look to upgrade. Dylan Floro, Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass and Richard Bleier are all locks for the ’pen. Lefty Steven Okert may have earned a 2022 spot as well. Still, there’s no shortage of relief arms available on the market — and the Marlins have spent on some veteran arms at the back of the relief corps in recent offseasons. Sergio Romo, Brandon Kintzler and Bass were all signed as free agents. It’s doubtful Miami would spend at the top of the remaining market (i.e. Kenley Jansen), but another modest one- or two-year deal for an underappreciated veteran seems plenty possible.

Whenever offseason activity finally resumes, the Marlins will still have some work to do — even if they’re not as active as they were in the days leading up to the shutdown. Look for Miami to cast a wide net as they seek one final outfield piece, and don’t be surprised if teams come calling on some of their starting pitchers, given that arguably unrivaled level of depth.

The NL East features the reigning World Series champs, the reigning NL MVP (Bryce Harper) and perhaps the most aggressive owner in the sport right now (the Mets’ Steve Cohen), making it a tough time for the Marlins to be looking to turn the corner. They’ll face a tough road, but with another savvy addition or two and some strides from the young arms on the roster, a playoff push in 2022 isn’t completely out of the question.

Marlins Have Had Discussions With Michael Conforto

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The Marlins have already made one big outfield acquisition this winter, signing Avisail Garcia to a four-year, $53MM deal before the lockout began, but recent rumors have indicated they are still looking to add another. One name on their list is Michael Conforto, as Joe Frisaro of Man on Second Baseball reports that “the Marlins have had discussions with Conforto’s camp, and he remains a possibility.” (Presumably, these discussions took place before the lockout, as teams and players are now not permitted to have such talks until the lockout ends.)

Conforto would make for an interesting fit in the Marlins outfield, given that he and Garcia were both primarily right fielders in 2021. However, it is worth noting that general manager Kim Ng recently said the team believes Garcia could be an everyday center fielder, if needed. Conforto also has some center field experience, but not since 2019. Even then, it was only 39 games. The club still lacks a proper everyday option in center and has been connected to both Ketel and Starling Marte this winter to try to address that need. It seems that installing Conforto in right field and sliding Garcia to center is another route they’ve considered.

Conforto is one of the more difficult markets to predict, due to the fact that he had a tremendous four-year run from 2017 to 2020 but is coming off an ill-timed downturn in 2021 as he entered free agency. During that stretch from 2017 to 2020, he hit 97 home runs and slashed .265/.369/.495, for a wRC+ of 133. But 2021 saw his numbers slip to .232/.344/.384 for a wRC+ of just 106. That’s still above league average, but a significant drop from his previous seasons.

After receiving a qualifying offer from the Mets, MLBTR predicted that Conforto would turn it down and then find his multi-year offers to be lacking, eventually settling for a one-year, $20MM deal to prove his 2021 slump was an outlier, then return to the open market without a qualifying offer attached. Although Conforto did end up turning down the QO, Frisaro spoke to Tim Healey of Newsday, who believes Conforto will beat that $20MM prediction and wind up somewhere in the range of $80MM to $100MM. (Same link as first paragraph.)

If that proves to be correct, the Marlins would have to blow past their recent track record for free agent expenditures in order to get a deal done. The $53MM given to Garcia was the largest contract given out by the club in the four-plus years since the team was purchased by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. Since then, they also gave Sandy Alcantara an extension worth $56MM. It would certainly come as a surprise if they then added another big contract to the books, especially one with a guarantee almost equal to those two combined. However, the organization has reportedly been planning to increase spending as they emerge from their rebuilding effort, meaning recent history perhaps can’t be used to eliminate the possibility of future spending.

Despite all the young talent they’ve collected on their roster during the rebuild, taking the next step towards competing won’t be easy, considering they share a division with the defending World Series champions in Atlanta, a strong Phillies team that likely still has moves to make, and a Mets team that has already spent at unprecedented levels to try and turn themselves into a true powerhouse. Perhaps the Marlins view a Conforto pursuit as the type of bold move they need to consider in order to gain ground on their rivals. For similar reasons, they’ve also been connected to other outfielders who remain available, such as Nick Castellanos, Eddie Rosario and Kyle Schwarber.

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