Marlins Rumors

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2022 at 3:51pm CDT

It’s been clear throughout the offseason that the Marlins are willing to deal from a deep stockpile of starting pitching that is perhaps unrivaled in terms of quantity. The Fish already moved righty Zach Thompson to the Pirates in the trade that netted them catcher Jacob Stallings, and they’re expected to continue pursuing offensive help after the lockout — be it on the trade market or in free agency. With an enviable stockpile of arms, there’s been plenty of speculation as to who might be on the move, and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald lists righty Elieser Hernandez as one possibility. Perhaps even more notably, Jackson adds that Miami isn’t particularly interested in moving any of its top three starters: Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez.

On Alcantara and Rogers, that’s wholly unsurprising. Miami just signed Alcantara to a five-year, $56MM extension shortly before the lockout, and the possibility of an Alcantara trade evaporated the moment the ink on that deal dried. Rogers, meanwhile, might’ve had a legitimate shot at National League Rookie of the Year had he not stepped away from baseball for a harrowing month of August, during which his mother was placed on a ventilator after contracting Covid-19 and both of his grandfathers passed away. Rogers, now 24, still made the All-Star team and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting after tossing 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball.

As for Lopez, he seems more like a potential on-paper trade candidate given that he’s now into his arbitration years and the Marlins have so many up-and-coming arms who could potentially offset his loss. He’s more established than the arms behind him but seemingly a tier below Alcantara and Rogers; that ostensibly would make him valuable enough to help fetch a legitimate bat for the lineup but not necessarily irreplaceable to the extent of the organization’s top two rotation members.

That said, Lopez also missed more than two months with a strained rotator cuff, and the Marlins can hardly be blamed if they’re not open to selling low on the talented 26-year-old. Over his past 160 innings, Lopez has notched a 3.26 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate, a 6.7% walk rate and a 49% grounder rate — all very strong marks.

As for Hernandez, he’s also 26-year-old righty who, like Lopez, is now into his arbitration years and controlled another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn just $1.4MM this coming season, making him overwhelmingly affordable for any team in need of starting pitching. Of course, Hernandez’s own injury troubles, which have suppressed his innings totals, are the reason that projected price tag is so low. Over the past two seasons, he’s missed time with a lat strain, a quad strain and biceps inflammation.

Selected out of the Astros’ organization in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, Hernandez was clobbered in his first two seasons of big league action before beginning to find success in 2020. The aforementioned injuries have limited him to just 77 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but he’s logged a tidy 3.84 ERA in that time while posting a sharp 26.3% strikeout rate and an outstanding 5.7% walk rate.

The problem for Hernandez, in addition to his difficulty staying on the field, has been a penchant for serving up the long ball. Hernandez has surrendered an average of 2.09 homers per nine frames — this in spite of the Marlins’ pitcher-friendly home setting. He averages just 91.2 mph on a four-seam fastball that opponents bashed at a .350/.394/.690 pace this past season. It’s a brutal line for plate appearances that culminate with Hernandez’s primary offering being thrown, but working in Hernandez’s favor is that his other two offerings have absolutely flummoxed opposing batters. In 2021, opponents batted .188/.241/.400 with a 30.6% strikeout rate in plate appearances that ended with Hernandez’s slider. They posted an even worse .167/.211/.333 slash against his changeup, going down in 18.2% of those plate appearances.

A team that believes itself capable of optimizing Hernandez’s fastball could feel there’s untapped potential. Given his heater’s lack of velocity and substandard spin rate, Hernandez will probably always be somewhat homer-prone, but even tamping that down to merely higher-than-average levels (as opposed to nearly the highest in the league) could go a long way toward a Hernandez breakout. Even if he simply continues on as a homer-prone fourth starter with injury concerns, his price tag in arbitration is so low that he’d provide surplus value in that capacity.

Looking past Hernandez, there are still other arms to at least consider. The Marlins don’t seem likely to sell low on Sixto Sanchez when his return from shoulder surgery is still unsettled, but he’s just one of many rotation candidates they have. Jesus Luzardo struggled immensely both in Oakland and Miami last year. Edward Cabrera is a touted top prospect himself but battled command issues in last year’s brief MLB debut. Further down the depth chart are fifth starter candidates like Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and Cody Poteet. Top prospects like Max Meyer, Jake Eder (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Eury Perez would presumably only be in play if the Marlins were poised to land a major name on the trade market.

Just how the Marlins will look to fortify their roster after the lockout remains up in the air. Miami is known to be on the hunt for an additional bat to deepen the lineup — ideally one that can play in the outfield. A center fielder would be most prudent, but the club has previously indicated a willingness to play offseason signee Avisail Garcia in center if a prominent corner slugger can be acquired via trade or signed. If the former route is the path they choose to tread, Hernandez would be a sensible part of a package, but there are so many arms in the system that it’s easy to draw up various permutations of deals.

Jeter’s Departure From Marlins Tied To Change In Plans For Post-Lockout Spending

By Steve Adams | March 5, 2022 at 1:14pm CDT

TODAY: A Marlins source disputes the idea that Jeter left the organization over a change in future spending plans, The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reports. There were several other “issues” between Jeter and majority owner Bruce Sherman, including Sherman’s displeasure at low attendance for home games. Sherman had decided against extending Jeter’s contract and thus the parting between the two sides “was more…Sherman’s decision than Jeter’s,” even if it was portrayed as a mutual decision since “Sherman had told an associate it would be difficult for him to publicly fire Jeter.”

FEBRUARY 28: Derek Jeter’s abrupt departure from the Marlins organization earlier this morning stunned the baseball world. Jeter’s citing of a “vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead” prompted plenty of speculation about the team’s spending moving forward, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that a change in spending plans indeed served as a tipping point for Jeter (Twitter link). Sherman suggests that Jeter believed there to be as much as $15MM to spend on the 2022 roster after the lockout, but that outlook “evaporated” over the course of the lockout.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Marlins were in serious talks with Miami native Nick Castellanos about a homecoming prior to the lockout. The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans tweets that he’d consistently heard the Marlins were the favorites to sign Castellanos. Those two reports, paired with Sherman’s report, seem to suggest that such a signing is no longer feasible for the Fish. (As an aside, many expect Castellanos to command more than $15MM annually, although the Marlins could have theoretically backloaded a deal to accommodate ownership’s 2022 budget.)

SportsGrid’s Craig Mish tweets that the Marlins are still expected to add to the roster after the lockout, but it seems that perhaps principal owner Bruce Sherman’s vision for the scope of those (and other) forthcoming additions has changed. Discord between Jeter and Sherman has been brewing for a good while longer than just these past couple of months, however, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link), who tweets that there was a “growing divide” dating back to last spring. The mounting differences between Jeter and Sherman, Olney adds, were a key reason that Jeter’s ownership stake in the team did not grow as it had been expected to.

Whether there’d been friction between Jeter and Sherman prior to early 2021 isn’t clear, but if that’s where the pair’s visions began to diverge, there’d be a pretty logical explanation for it. Shortly after Sherman and Jeter’s group purchased the Marlins, the Miami Herald obtained a copy of the team’s pitch to prospective investors, including future spending plans. Some payroll reductions were always in the offing, as evidenced by the quick dismantling of an All-Star outfield (Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna), but those moves were made with the intention of ramping payroll back up down the line.

The Marlins’ Opening Day payroll in 2018 sat just under $100MM, but that number dipped to $72MM in 2019 and was again at that $73MM level in 2020 (prior to prorating salaries) before dropping to $56MM in 2021. The revenue losses from that pandemic-impacted 2020 season changed the direction of many organizations (e.g. Reds, Guardians, D-backs), and it’s certainly feasible that Sherman’s own willingness to spend was impacted as well.

To be clear, the Marlins have spent this offseason. Avisail Garcia’s four-year, $53.5MM deal is one of the largest free-agent contracts they’ve ever handed out, and the team doled out extensions to both Sandy Alcantara and Miguel Rojas while also acquiring Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings. That said, Miami’s projected payroll for the forthcoming season is still under $70MM, and if ownership sought to curtail available resources for the 2022, as Sherman reports, it’s possible future seasons would also be impacted.

As ESPN’s Marly Rivera reminds (Twitter link), Jeter spoke favorably about his former organization’s front office, noting that the Yankees are always on the hunt to improve. “I’ve said it before, the Steinbrenner family, from the Boss to Hal, they’re always trying to get better, get better, get better, and they don’t hesitate to make big moves,” Jeter said at the time. Yankee fans may disagree in light of the team’s quiet pre-lockout period, but Jeter’s general tenor this past July does not sound like one that would align with a sudden tightening of the purse strings.

Across social media, players have taken Jeter’s departure as what they perceive as another example of the issues they’re fighting for in labor talks with the league. Astros catcher Jason Castro, one of the eight members on the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee, tweeted a “Re2pect” message to Jeter and used the hashtag “#CompetitiveIntegrity” as well. As ESPN’s Alden Goznalez writes, players perceive a disconnect between ownership pushing for the status quo in revenue sharing, the luxury tax, etc. in the name of competitive balance and Jeter departing largely because of questions regarding the rest of ownership’s “financial commitment to the roster.”

Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas, the team’s clubhouse leader and unofficial captain, spoke to Jomboy’s Chris Rose today in the wake of Jeter’s sudden departure (Instagram video). “Derek Jeter was looking to win — looking to win this year,” said Rojas. “We all know that in order to be able to win, you need to put a better product on the field, which is what they were doing before the lockout started.”

Rojas praised the team for extending Alcantara but noted that last season, there were virtually no players other than himself on multi-year deals. (Reliever Anthony Bass was also on a small two-year contract.) Extending Rojas and signing Garcia were undoubtedly well-received among the players on the roster, but Rojas expressed questions, doubt and general sadness in speaking with Rose.

“I don’t know about the money situation,” Rojas said after being asked about the Post report that changes in payroll expectation led to Jeter’s departure. “I don’t know about promises of a better payroll or anything like that. I just heard something that they said — that this is the time to take the next step. It’s our time to take the next step in this ’build’ that they promised. … It was time to make the move to get not just a better team, but better quality up and down the organization. I don’t know what happened.

“…At the end of the day, I have a lot of questions. There’s some things that have to be communicated after this thing’s over, because we as the players, we want to be respected and informed what’s going on. I know not everything is going to be shared with the players, but at the end of the day, you at least want to know where you’re going.”

Latest On Sixto Sanchez

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2022 at 2:56pm CDT

Marlins right-hander Sixto Sanchez is “taking a bit longer” to recover from July’s season-ending shoulder surgery, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, which has pushed back his readiness to appear in a game setting. Obviously, with the entire season in limbo right now, Sanchez won’t be missing any immediate games, but Heyman suggests it’d be midseason before the touted 23-year-old would be ready to return. It’s a change in tone from when Sanchez himself went on record earlier this year to say he felt “100 percent” and expected to be ready to go when the 2022 season rolled around.

Sanchez was a bright spot for the 2020 Marlins, graduating from top prospect status to a successful big league pitcher at just 22 years of age. The centerpiece prospect in the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to the division-rival Phillies, Sanchez logged 39 innings of 3.46 ERA ball with a 20.9% strikeout rate, a 7.0% walk rate and a massive 58.0% grounder rate. The strikeout rate was perhaps surprisingly low for a pitcher with Sanchez’s combination of pedigree and raw stuff (98.8 mph average on his heater, plus changeup) — but Sanchez was making the jump straight from Double-A to the big leagues. He also turned in a huge 12.8% swinging-strike rate and 38.7% opponents’ chase rate, both of which point to the possibility for more whiffs down the road.

Sanchez missed time early in the 2021 season, first due to a lengthy stay in Covid-19 protocols during Spring Training and later due to shoulder discomfort. The Marlins eventually shut him down until early summer due to that first bout of shoulder pain, and he was shut down again when the discomfort returned between bullpen sessions. Eventually, a small tear in Sanchez’s posterior capsule was discovered, which resulted in an early-July procedure that ended his season.

While there’s no concrete timeline for his return, the broader cause for concern is that a decelerated rehab program only causes further concern regarding Sanchez’s surgically repaired shoulder. It’s already been nearly 18 months since Sanchez pitched in a big league game, and while he couldn’t work out at Marlins facilities anyhow because he’s on the 40-man roster, it doesn’t sound as though he’d be ready to take the mound had Spring Training been underway as originally scheduled. At the time of the surgery, general manager Kim Ng announced that Sanchez would resume throwing in three months’ time but wasn’t likely to pitch in winter ball. That timeline now rather clearly appears to have been pushed back.

Even without Sanchez, the Marlins boast an enviable crop of arms, headlined by newly extended ace Sandy Alcantara, who signed a five-year, $56MM deal prior to the current lockout. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo, though Miami has plenty of arms beyond that top quintet. Righty Edward Cabrera is regarded as one of the game’s most promising pitching prospects and already made his MLB debut in 2021. Flamethrowing righty Max Meyer, the No. 3 overall pick in 2020, is also considered among the game’s best arms and could open the year in Triple-A.

Other depth options on the roster include Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Daniel Castano, Cody Poteet and Paul Campbell — all of whom have pitched in the big leagues. Further down the pipeline are righty Eury Perez and lefty Jake Eder, the latter of whom will miss the ’22 season due to Tommy John surgery but is as highly regarded as any arm in the Miami system.

That deep reserve of pitching talent notwithstanding, Sanchez is a key piece to the Marlins’ future and, had he been healthy, would’ve been viewed as a vital rotation candidate for the upcoming campaign. The team isn’t likely to issue any kind of formal statement on his outlook while the lockout is going on, but his status will be a key storyline to follow for Marlins fans whenever the lockout lifts.

Derek Jeter Leaves Marlins Organization

By Steve Adams | February 28, 2022 at 10:01am CDT

There’s been a seismic shift in Marlins leadership, as Derek Jeter announced today that he is leaving the organization and will no longer serve as an executive or a shareholder with the club. Jeter’s statement reads as follows:

“Today I am announcing that the Miami Marlins and I are officially ending our relationship and I will no longer serve as CEO nor as a shareholder in the Club. We had a vision five years ago to turn the Marlins franchise around, and as CEO, I have been proud to put my name and reputation on the line to make our plan a reality. Through hard work, trust and accountability, we transformed every aspect of the franchise, reshaping the workforce, and developing a long-term strategic plan for success.

That said, the vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead. Now is the right time for me to step aside as a new season begins.

My family and I would like to thank our incredible staff, Marlins fans, Marlins players and the greater Miami community for welcoming us with open arms and making us feel at home. The organization is stronger today than it was five years ago, and I am thankful and grateful to have been a part of this team.”

Marlins chairman and principal owner Bruce Sherman issued his own statement on the severing of the relationship:

“The Miami Marlins and Derek Jeter announced today that they have agreed to officially end their relationship. The Marlins thank Derek for his many contributions and wish him luck in his future endeavors.

We have a deep bench of talent that will oversee both the business and baseball decisions while we work to identify a new CEO to lead our franchise. The ownership group is committed to keep investing in the future of the franchise — and we are determined to build a team that will return to the postseason and excite Marlins fans and the local community.”

Sherman and Jeter partnered as prospective buyers for the Marlins back in 2017 and eventually outbid multiple other groups to purchase the franchise from now-former owner Jeffrey Loria at a reported price of $1.2 billion. The bulk of that investment came from Sherman, though Jeter was said to have invested $25MM into the organization himself. Jeter later disputed that number, calling his stake a fair bit larger. Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reported in February of 2018 that it was closer to $38MM in total.

The early stages of the Jeter and Sherman regime were historic for the Marlins, as the front office (then headed up by president of baseball operations Mike Hill) embarked on a dramatic reshaping of the roster and farm system that saw the Marlins’ former core of stars shipped out of town. While the return for eventual NL MVP Christian Yelich has been widely panned, that sell-off also saw the Marlins acquire Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen (among others) for Marcell Ozuna. Gallen was later traded to the D-backs for current second baseman Jazz Chisholm. The Giancarlo Stanton/Yankees trade also occurred that same winter, and a year later the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies in a deal headlined by Sixto Sanchez.

The Marlins parted ways with Hill following the 2020 season, and Jeter played a significant role in bringing Kim Ng aboard as the sport’s first ever female general manager. The team’s first full offseason under Ng was relatively quiet, but she and the Marlins have been aggressive thus far in the 2021-22 offseason, signing Avisail Garcia (four years, $53MM), acquiring both Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle, and signing both Alcantara (five years, $56MM) and shortstop/clubhouse leader Miguel Rojas (two years, $10MM) to contract extensions.

Even with that sequence of transactions, however, the Marlins are only projected to carry a $68.9MM payroll, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They’re still expected to pursue an additional bat when the offseason lockout and accompanying transaction freeze are lifted, but it’s safe to say the Fish will remain near the bottom of the league in terms of overall payroll. It’s not clear whether Jeter’s departure is at all tied to the team’s payroll expectations moving forward, but it seems clear that a rift of some degree formed between Jeter and Sherman.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Jeter’s contract was set to expire later this year but was not immediately on the cusp of ending. Presumably, any potential talks about a new contract would’ve included discussions about the long-term vision for the organization, and it seems (based on Jeter’s own words) that he and Sherman no longer aligned.

Whether the reasons for Jeter’s departure eventually become clear or not, he’ll leave a lasting stamp on the organization. The handling of some early personnel changes (e.g. the Marlins’ dismissal of advisors Jeff Conine, Andre Dawson and Jack McKeon) was not without controversy, and the Marlins drew plenty of criticism after the Sherman/Jeter group immediately slashed payroll with the trades of Yelich, Stanton, Ozuna and Dee Gordon.

Five years later, however, it’s hard to argue that the Marlins aren’t in a better position. The position-player core of this roster isn’t as strong, but the Marlins now boast one of MLB’s best farm systems and perhaps the deepest collection of pitching any team has to offer. The long-term payroll has more flexibility — whether or not it’s used is another question — and the Marlins are more generally seen as a team on the rise. That surely isn’t due to Jeter alone, but beyond his hiring of Ng, Jeter also played a large role in bringing VP of scouting/player development Gary Denbo and assistant general manager Dan Greenlee over from the Yankees. Greenlee has helped to build out an analytics department that is lacking, and while Denbo has at times been a source of controversy himself, the improved farm system is a testament to his own work.

Time will tell whether additional departures are imminent, and it’s not clear what might be next for Jeter. The Hall of Famer made no indication that he plans to step away from baseball entirely, though, so it’s certainly plausible he’ll eventually take on a new challenge with another club.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the news shortly before Jeter issued his statement (Twitter link).

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

By Anthony Franco | February 14, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: Impact Players With A Chance To Move

By Steve Adams | February 11, 2022 at 11:00pm CDT

Earlier in the week, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes published our list of the 14 players we consider to be the likeliest trade candidates following the ongoing MLB lockout. That list was the result of an extensive talk with Tim, myself and Anthony Franco, wherein we considered the possibility of more than 100 players and whether they could (or could not) viably change hands. While that Athletics-heavy list contained who we agreed to be the likeliest, it certainly didn’t represent every plausible trade candidate in our eyes.

As Tim noted within that post, we wound up sorting our list of plausible trade candidates into various buckets/tiers. The top 14 was simply the likeliest, regardless of contract or quality of player, but for the remainder of the exercise, we chose to categorize things based on how impactful a player might be to his new team. This, admittedly, is subjective. We didn’t establish a defined set of concrete parameters in labeling this group “impact” players; rather, we focused on mid-rotation (or better) starting pitchers, high-leverage relievers and hitters with recent All-Star-worthy performances (even if they didn’t necessarily result in an actual All-Star berth). Three wins above replacement in a given season wasn’t a firm cutoff, but we did ask at multiple points whether we a player had recently or could be reasonably expected/projected to turn in a 3-WAR season while sorting them.

Once these players were tiered, we further broke them down by whether they were legitimately plausible candidate to change teams or just someone whom other clubs would be trying to pry away. Basically, none of Tim, Anthony or myself would bat an eye to see Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas traded. Bryan Reynolds or Cedric Mullins, though? We’ll probably hear about teams trying to pry those players loose from their respective clubs (hence their inclusion), but a deal coming together seems like a long shot and would register as a mild surprise (if only because of the asking price and remaining club control).

As Tim explained, some of these players are interconnected. While the Reds have three starters who could plausibly change hands, we don’t necessarily think all three will move. It’s the same with the A’s roster. They could plausibly move multiple players — GM David Forst said amid November reports of a mandate to slash payroll that they’d have to listen on the whole roster — but that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to trade seven or eight players.

Anthony will follow this list up in the near future with a collection of solid regulars who we believe could change hands and/or will be in high demand following the lockout, but for now, here’s our second tier of trade candidates — legitimate impact players who could plausibly change teams but perhaps aren’t as likely to go as those listed by Tim earlier in the week…

Plausible/Decent Chance to Move

Luis Castillo / SP / Reds

The Reds’ offseason transactions since the close of the 2020 season have included a salary dump of Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering another quality reliever (Archie Bradley), trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, and placing Wade Miley on waivers rather than picking up a reasonable $10MM option. GM Nick Krall kicked off the 2021-22 offseason by declaring a need to “align our payroll to our resources.” Rumors of trades involving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray (listed among our 14 likeliest candidates due to his age and larger price tag) and Tyler Mahle naturally followed.

Even if the Reds aren’t actively shopping the 29-year-old Castillo, teams will be calling to inquire, and Krall and his staff will be listening. The Reds probably aren’t going to shop him and simply let him go for the best offer, as they control him through 2023. They could always hold and market him again this summer or next offseason if no enticing offer materializes post-lockout.

Still, Castillo might be the best starting pitcher who could feasibly change hands. He got out to a brutal start in 2021, but over his final 22 starts, Castillo was excellent. He racked up 135 1/3 innings (six-plus innings per start) and notched a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. Castillo’s ugly April/May results skew both his 2021 numbers and his collective numbers from 2019-21, but over the past three seasons he’s still posted a 3.61 ERA while fanning 27% of his opponents.

Maybe he’s not a true “ace,” but Castillo is a playoff-caliber starter for virtually any team. He’s projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 and would be owed one more arbitration raise in 2023. Essentially, he’ll cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20MM for the next two seasons — a bargain rate that should be reflected in a huge asking price from the Reds.

Tyler Mahle / SP / Reds

Mahle doesn’t have the name value that Castillo brings to the table, and his track record of success is shorter. Nonetheless, he’s blossomed into a sharp mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, sporting a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Unlike Castillo, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, which has at times bitten him at his bandbox of a home stadium; Mahle has given up 30 home runs in 227 2/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, and 24 of them have come at home. He posted a 2.30 ERA away from Great American Ball Park in 2021 and, in his career, has a 5.09 ERA at home versus a 3.72 mark on the road.

A spacious home park would benefit Mahle perhaps even more than your average starter, although his penchant for yielding fly-balls will likely always make him a bit susceptible to the long-ball. Mahle has also been more of a guy who pitches into the sixth rather than completes six or seven frames (5 1/3 innings per start since 2020), but that’s increasingly common in today’s era of aggressive bullpen usage.

Mahle’s shorter track record may give some fans pause, but teams are likely comfortable projecting him as a quality arm based on the past two seasons of missing bats at a high level. And, that shorter track record has left him with a lower price point in arbitration, as he’s projected to earn $5.6MM in 2022. Like Castillo, he’s controlled through 2023, so there’s no immediate urgency to move him — especially given his affordable price tag. Still, teams will be calling, and the Reds can justifiably ask for a strong return.

Frankie Montas / SP / Athletics

Sticking with pitchers who have two remaining years of club control, Montas joins a long list of Athletics who could be traded post-lockout. Amid reports of a mandate to slash payroll, GM David Forst outwardly acknowledged back in November that the A’s will have to listen to offers on the majority of their roster.

Montas, unlike free-agents-to-be Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, is controlled through 2023. And unlike Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, his projected $5.6MM salary is a bit easier for the A’s to stomach. That’s why Montas is in this “bucket” of our trade candidate rankings, but even if he’s not as likely to move as some of his teammates, a deal is certainly still plausible.

Though Montas isn’t without red flags — he served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and had never reached 100 innings in a big league season prior to 2021 — it’s hard to ignore the quality results. Since 2018, Montas has pitched 401 innings of 3.57 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 43.7% ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike rate has continued to improve, and this past season’s 26.9% strikeout rate was a career-best. He’ll turn 29 in May, and he’s an upgrade for any team’s rotation.

Tyler Glasnow / SP / Rays

Glasnow is the most talented name on this list and, when healthy, looked the part of a legitimate ace with Tampa Bay. From 2019-21, Glasnow tallied 206 innings with a 2.80 ERA and fielding-independent marks to match. He punched out a ridiculous 36% of his opponents, walked just 7.8 percent of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 45% clip. Among the 114 starting pitchers who totaled at least 200 innings in that time, Glasnow ranks tenth in swinging-strike rate and second to only Shane Bieber in his combined percentage of called and swinging strikes. Only Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole had higher strikeout rates.

With that type of profile, two years of team control remaining and a projected $5.8MM salary for the 2022 season, a healthy Glasnow would be a no-brainer for the Rays to keep. Of course, Glasnow is not healthy. He’s likely to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury typically sign on for a repeat of their prior year’s salary, meaning that in 2023 Glasnow will likely pitch on the same salary as 2022. Using that same $5.8MM projection, the Rays would be looking at about $11.6MM for one season of Glasnow, when his workload would need to be monitored coming back from major surgery.

Glasnow’s career-high innings total in the Majors is 2018’s 111 2/3, and his career-high for any professional season is when he reached 155 innings between Triple-A and Pittsburgh combined back in 2017. Realistically, the Rays would probably be thrilled to get 100-120 innings from Glasnow in 2023 — and an $11-12MM price tag on that modest total is rather steep for a team with Tampa Bay’s general payroll concerns.

Other clubs would welcome the opportunity to take that chance, however. We’ve seen two-year pacts for Tommy John rehabbers like Drew Smyly ($10MM with the Cubs), Michael Pineda ($10MM with the Twins) and Garrett Richards ($15.5MM with the Padres). Glasnow’s price tag is toward the lower end of that spectrum in terms of dollars, but the cost of trading prospects also has to enter into the equation. For an arm of this caliber, however, there are plenty of teams that would take the plunge.

Glasnow, for his part, recently told Chris Rose that he strongly hopes to remain with the Rays (YouTube link). Perhaps there’s a contract to be worked out that could benefit both parties, but Glasnow himself acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his status and that president of baseball operations Erik Neander will have to listen to some offers if and when other teams come calling.

Josh Hader / RP / Brewers

Teams have been trying to get their hands on Hader for years, and the Brewers have steadfastly refused all overtures. The reluctance is understandable, as Hader has established himself as arguably the best reliever in the sport. In 282 1/3 career innings, he’s posted a 2.26 ERA and fanned exactly four out of every nine batters faced. No longer being used for multiple innings at a time, Hader posted a career-best 1.23 ERA in 58 2/3 frames this past season. The homer he allowed to Freddie Freeman in the NLDS isn’t a great note on which to close a season, but looking at Hader’s broader playoff track record, he has a 1.88 ERA and 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings.

Trading the game’s most impactful reliever wouldn’t be easy for president of baseball operation David Stearns, but Hader’s value is at its apex. He’s also projected to see his salary spike to $10MM in 2022, with a fourth and final arbitration raise coming in 2023. Hader is dominant, but the typically low-payroll Brewers are flirting with what would be a record $123MM payroll. It’s not accurate to suggest that the presence of a second powerhouse reliever, Devin Williams, makes Hader expendable, but Williams’ excellence would at least slightly soften the blow of a theoretical Hader trade.

Milwaukee could still stand to improve its offense, and moving Hader could both free up some financial resources and simultaneously net some immediate help for the big league lineup. The Brewers don’t have to move Hader now, to be clear. However, they probably wouldn’t move him in-season if they’re contending — meaning it’s now or next winter, when they’d be marketing one year and a $15MM+ salary. That would net far less long-term value. It’s a fine line to walk.

Joey Gallo / OF / Yankees

Gallo popped 13 homers in 58 games following a July trade from Texas to the Bronx, but it’s fair to say the deal didn’t work out as New York had hoped. Gallo’s strikeout rate, which had dipped a bit with the Rangers, spiked to 38.6% as a Yankee. The resulting .160/.303/.404 batting line in 228 plate appearances is one of the more bizarre slashes you’ll ever see from a regular player.

Struggles in New York aside, Gallo was hitting .223/.379/.490 through 388 plate appearances in Texas and had bashed 25 homers in that span — putting him on pace for what would’ve been his third career 40-homer season had he not dropped off with the Yankees.

Gallo has as much power as anyone in baseball, and he’s made himself into a strong defender in the outfield corners (who can handle center from time to time). However, he’s projected to earn $10.2MM in arbitration this season, and it’d be understandable if the Yankees were hesitant at that price based on his post-trade struggles. New York is projected to top $226MM in luxury tax concerns, so moving Gallo could prove beneficial if owner Hal Steinbrenner is again intent on dipping beneath the threshold (wherever that’ll ultimately lie in 2022).

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton as outfield options, with Estevan Florial serving as a possible reserve. Were they to give Gallo a change of scenery by moving him to a team seeking pop in the outfield, they could always sign a free agent to replenish some of the depth. It’s not clear that the Yankees will shop Gallo once the lockout lifts, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about the possibility back in October, reporting within that as many as seven other teams tried to land Gallo at the deadline. If he’s on the block, there’ll be interest.

Longer Shots due to Asking Price and/or Remaining Club Control

Ramon Laureano / CF/ Athletics

Given Forst’s comments and the reports of forthcoming payroll reduction, it’s viable that anyone earning a salary of some note will at least be discussed. Laureano, projected to earn $2.8MM this coming season after his first trip through the arbitration process, also represents one of the few plausible center field options on the market, which should lead to plenty of teams inquiring on his availability.

Trading Laureano is more complicated than moving some of his teammates. He’s currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban which, beyond raising questions about his performance to date, could come with major service time implications. Laureano still needs to serve 27 games of that suspension, which could impact his path to free agency. He currently has three years and 14 days of service time, meaning he’d need 158 days in 2022 to cross the threshold into four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market post-2024. There are only 187 days in a standard season, making it unlikely he’ll end up accruing the necessary time on the roster to get to that point. (Remember that off-days spent on the MLB roster count as a day of service.)

There’s always the small chance that some other factor impacts this trajectory (e.g. the ongoing labor talks, a potentially shortened 2022 schedule, a grievance filing), but as it stands, Laureano could wind up under team control through 2025 rather than 2024. An extra year of team control both heightens his appeal but also makes it tougher to trade him.

Beyond the service-time considerations, Laureano underwent core muscle surgery after the season, which adds another layer to a complicated scenario. But looking solely at Laureano’s numbers, he’s a difference-maker for a team in need of a center fielder (e.g. Phillies, Marlins, Guardians). A career .263/.335/.465 hitter with 25-homer pop, good speed and plus center field defense isn’t a hard sell.

Jesse Winker / OF / Reds

I explored Winker’s situation at length last week, with the bottom-line point being that it makes little sense to listen to offers on starting pitchers with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Castillo, Mahle, Gray) without doing the same on Winker. The 28-year-old slugger has had some issues with durability, doesn’t hit lefties well (though he’ll still draw his walks against them) and isn’t a great defender. That’s an odd trio of qualities to focus on when talking about someone’s trade candidacy, but the other side of the coin is more compelling: Winker’s production against right-handed pitching is at Bryce Harper/Juan Soto levels of brilliance.

Since 2020, Harper and Soto are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with a better mark than Winker’s 169 wRC+ against righties. In terms of more traditional slash metrics, he’s batting an outrageous .322/.417/.619 when holding the platoon advantage. With all the talent on the Reds’ roster, I think Cincinnati should be in aggressive, win-now mode. Krall’s early comments and their dealings since 2020 suggest otherwise, however, and if you’re going to listen on the other guys with four-to-five years of MLB service — why not listen on Winker as well? Cleveland, Colorado, Philadelphia and so many others are looking for offensive upgrades in the outfield corners.

Pablo Lopez / SP / Marlins

As is a common refrain on this list, the Marlins have no urgency to move Lopez, who’ll turn 26 in March. He was limited to 102 2/3 innings by shoulder issues last season and has yet to top 111 2/3 frames in a Major League season, but Lopez has been pretty darn good when healthy. From 2020-21, in particular, he’s compiled 31 starts and 160 innings of 3.26 ERA ball with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. He’s in his first trip through arbitration and projected for a highly reasonable $2.5MM salary.

So, why even bother considering a move? The Marlins are still hopeful of landing some help in center field, and they’re also so deep in pitching talent that it borders on comical. The old adage that a team can never have too much pitching always rings in the back of our minds, but the Marlins aren’t short on options beyond Lopez. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Cody Poteet and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man — and top prospect Max Meyer is quickly rising through the minors. Injured top prospect Jake Eder will be back in 2023.

Jose Ramirez / 2B, 3B / Guardians

The favorite subject of so many hypothetical trade scenarios from fans, Ramirez does feel likely to end up traded … at some point. The question is whether now’s the time. Cleveland has him for $11MM this year plus a $13MM option in 2023. Given Ramirez’s elite play, there’s little chance of the Guardians extending him beyond that 2023 season, but there’s also good sense in Cleveland taking another run at the AL Central with Ramirez as a focal point. The pitching is still excellent, and while the lineup clearly needs another bat or two, the 2022 payroll is currently projected at only $49MM. There’s room to add some help for Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and a deep farm system could also provide some in-house upgrades.

It’s also impossible to look at the situation without accounting for public relations. We’re only a year removed from Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor in a wildly unpopular move, and many fans’ anger with further fueled by the team’s name change. The newly-named Guardians are looking to usher in a “new era” of Cleveland baseball, and trading their best player for a second straight offseason isn’t a great way to foster good will.

If the first half of the season goes poorly, I’d expect Ramirez to be among the most talked-about names at the 2022 trade deadline, and there’d be a much stronger chance he moves at that point. With regard to the offseason, however, there’s just not enough urgency to push something across the line unless Toronto or another on-paper suitor puts forth an over-the-top offer. Even then, fans who’ve already purchased new Guardians gear bearing Ramirez’s name are going to feel rather jilted. It’d be tough for the front office to make this move now.

Bryan Reynolds / OF / Pirates

Reynolds is the best player on a last-place team that’s squarely in the midst of a rebuild so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been in trade rumors dating back to the summer. Rival teams know the Pirates are open for business, and it’s only natural they’d try to acquire a center fielder capable of posting a .302/.390/.522 slash like the one Reynolds logged in 2021.

On the one hand, there’s an argument that the rebuilding Buccos ought to listen on anyone — and they surely will. But on the other hand, Reynolds is 27 and controlled another four seasons. His trade value won’t diminish substantially if the Pirates hold onto him, giving the fans at least one recognizable and marketable star player. Reynolds is a Super Two player who’s projected to earn an eminently affordable $4.5MM in 2022, so there’s no financial pressure. Everyone has their price in a trade, especially on a team like the Pirates, but for some context, that price reportedly included Mariners uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez (and more) when the two teams last talked. Baseball America currently ranks Rodriguez as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball.

Cedric Mullins / OF / Orioles

Most of what was written about Reynolds applies to Mullins. The Orioles’ breakout star put together a 30-30 season last year while hitting .291/.360/.518 and is controllable for another four seasons — through age 30. No one expects the Orioles to contend in 2022, but they’ll get a look at top prospects like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall this year. Reinforcements from the farm are on the way, and it’s feasible that by 2023 (and certainly by 2024), they could be on the cusp of turning a corner. Mullins will be under control, affordable and in his prime at that point.

The Orioles aren’t going to declare anyone on their Major League roster “untouchable,” but Mullins would only be available for a staggeringly strong offer. A Mullins trade doesn’t seem likely, but teams are going to at least try to force GM Mike Elias’ hand.

Ketel Marte / 2B, CF / Diamondbacks

Teams have been trying to pry Marte from the D-backs for more than a year. Arizona reportedly took the extra step of plainly telling rival clubs in early July — weeks before the trade deadline — that Marte wouldn’t be moved. That probably didn’t stop clubs from trying, and teams will be trying again post-lockout. The Marlins, Yankees, Mariners and quite a few others have at least been speculatively linked to Marte, whose team-friendly deal heightens his appeal. Marte will earn $8MM in 2022, and his contract calls for a $10MM team option in 2023 and a $12MM team option in 2024.

Dating back to 2019, Marte boasts a .318/.374/.543 batting line with 48 dingers, 79 doubles, 11 triples and a lowly 14% strikeout rate (versus a 7.6% walk rate). He’s rated poorly in center field, from a defensive standpoint, but is well-regarded defensively at second base. A 28-year-old switch-hitter with power, some speed, plenty of versatility and a grand total of $30MM owed to him over the next three years ($21MM of which isn’t even guaranteed) is wildly appealing. The D-backs, however, have shown little inclination to move him in the past, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye echoed that sentiment in November, calling Marte a “cornerstone” player around whom the D-backs can build.

Zac Gallen / SP / Diamondbacks

Twenty-six years old and controlled another four seasons, Gallen is precisely the type of pitcher that pitching-needy teams like the Rangers, Twins, Nationals and so many others would dream of acquiring. A forearm issue slowed him in 2021 and limited his workload, but Gallen has now made 50 starts in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate to show for it. He’s already been traded twice — going from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal before being flipped to Arizona in what amounted to a rare prospect-for-prospect swap sending Jazz Chisholm back to the Fish.

The D-backs didn’t even trade Merrill Kelly at this past summer’s deadline when he was a fourth starter with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be excited about the idea of giving up four seasons of Gallen — particularly when his stock is down a bit, owing to last season’s arm issue. Gallen closed out the 2021 season quite well, with a 3.19 ERA and 52-to-15 K/BB ratio in his final 48 frames (eight starts). Sawdaye listed Gallen as a “cornerstone” player right alongside Marte, adding that the D-backs never plan to fully punt on a given season. Their signing of Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM meshes with the notion that this is not a team on the brink of a full-fledged teardown. Teams can try to nab Gallen, but it’d likely require some young MLB-ready talent going back to Arizona. Overall, the odds are low.

David Bednar / RP / Pirates

One of several pieces acquired in last winter’s Joe Musgrove trade, the 27-year-old Bednar stepped up and solidified himself as the Pirates’ likely closer in 2022. Through 60 2/3 innings, Bednar posted a tiny 2.23 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate and a 41.4% grounder rate. Bednar yielded only five home runs all season (0.74 HR/9) and averaged 97 mph on his heater. He looks the part of a legitimate high-leverage weapon, and he’s controlled for five more years — all the way through 2026.

With such good results, a pre-arbitration salary and so much team control remaining, Bednar probably isn’t going anywhere. (As a bonus, he’s a Pittsburgh-area native.) The Pirates can’t (or at least won’t) simply trade every player who shows some semblance of value, after all. That said, the last thing most rebuilding clubs need is a high-end closer, and bullpen help is always in demand. Bednar will be 29 or 30 by the time the Pirates are realistically turning a corner, and the attrition rate on relievers is higher than anywhere else on the diamond. The argument for capitalizing on his value right now is pretty clear, but as with the rest of this “long shot” list, it’s hard to see a team meeting what would surely be a pretty substantial asking price.

Gerald Williams Passes Away

By Steve Adams | February 8, 2022 at 1:30pm CDT

Former Yankees, Mets, Devil Rays, Braves, Brewers and Marlins outfielder Gerald Williams passed away today at 55 years of age, former teammate and close friend Derek Jeter announced (via the Players’ Tribune).

“Gerald Williams passed away this morning after a battle with cancer,” Jeter said in his statement announcing the saddening news. “To my teammate and one of my best friends in the world, rest in peace, my brother. My thoughts and prayers are with his wife, Liliana, and their whole family.”

Williams, originally a 14th-round pick by the Yankees back in 1987, debuted as a 25-year-old during the 1992 season — the first step in what would become a 14-year career at the MLB level. That journey took him to six different organizations and spanned 1168 games. Williams, nicknamed “Ice,” posted a career .255/.301/.410 batting line with 85 home runs, 183 doubles, 18 triples, 106 stolen bases, 474 runs scored and another 365 runs driven in. Yankee fans may fondly remember an impressive first-inning grab by Williams back in May or 1996, which seemed innocuous at the time but wound up proving a pivotal play in what would eventually become a Doc Gooden no-hitter (YouTube link).

Williams and Jeter were teammates for the Yankees’ postseason appearance in 1995, and he returned to the playoffs with Atlanta in both 1998 and 1999. He played a huge role in the Braves’ 3-1 National League Division Series win over the Astros in ’99, going 7-for-18 (.389) with a double, a pair of runs scored, three RBIs and a stolen base in that four-game set. A member of both the 1996 Yankees and 2003 Marlins, Williams received a pair of World Series rings (even though the Yankees traded him to the Brewers in August of ’96).

Williams’ two best seasons came with the ’98 Braves, when he hit .305/352/.504 with 10 homers in a part-time role, and in 2000 with Tampa Bay, when he saw regular action in the outfield. Williams logged a career-high 682 plate appearances in his first of two seasons with the then-Devil Rays, adding in a career-best 21 home runs, 30 doubles, a pair of triples and 12 steals.

Most pro ball players can only dream of a 14-year run at the game’s top level — and that’s particularly true among players selected well down the draft board, as was the case with Williams. We at MLBTR offer our condolences to Williams’ family, his friends, his former teammates and the thousands of fans who took joy in rooting him on over the course of his decade-plus in the Majors.

Quick Hits: Rays Ballpark, Rockies, Bleday

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2022 at 10:19pm CDT

A new ballpark in the Ybor City area of Tampa would cost roughly $892MM, as per a study commissioned by the Tampa Sports Authority. According to Charlie Frago and C.T. Bowen of The Tampa Bay Times, the price tag would cover a ballpark with a 27K capacity, intended to be the Rays’ new home stadium for an entire season, rather than a split-season situation like the Rays’ now-scuttled proposal to play games in both Tampa and Montreal.

The cost of the Ybor City ballpark includes a roof, which is essential for playing games in Florida during the summer. (The Rays wouldn’t be using the stadium for Spring Training games, as the team may be planning a new spring camp site in nearby Pasco County.) Public revenue for the ballpark could be raised by some increased property taxes on local developers within the “ballpark district,” though it remains to be seen how much of the total cost would be covered by the city and how much would be covered by the Rays themselves. The club previously indicated they would be willing to spend around $350MM towards construction of a new ballpark, though that was based on the concept of a stadium costing around $700MM and in use for only the non-Montreal portion of the schedule. The Rays didn’t issue a public comment on the TSA’s study.

Latest On Nick Castellanos

By Anthony Franco and Steve Adams | February 1, 2022 at 8:57am CDT

The crop of unsigned corner outfielders remains strong, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto still yet to put pen to paper. There’s a case that Castellanos is the best pure outfielder still available, although interest from what appeared to be one of his primary suitors may be more muted than expected.

Reports from before the institution of the lockout suggested the Padres were among the teams with “strong interest” in Castellanos. However, as part of a reader mailbag this week, Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes the club doesn’t seem to be “terribly high” on the 29-year-old. While San Diego was at least in contact with Castellanos’ representatives at the Boras Corporation before the lockout, Lin downplays the possibility of San Diego committing either a five-year or a nine-figure investment to Castellanos coming out of the transactions freeze.

Unsurprisingly, he and his reps came out aiming higher, reportedly seeking seven or eight guaranteed years. Something of that length (especially eight years) would register as a surprise but a strong five or six year pact would align with broader expectations; we at MLBTR predicted a five-year term at a total of $115MM on our Top 50 Free Agent rankings to begin the offseason.

No doubt part of San Diego’s reluctance to spend at that level is their already-cluttered payroll. Manny Machado ($32MM), Will Myers ($22.5MM), Eric Hosmer ($20.625MM) and Yu Darvish ($20MM) are all slated for hefty salaries in 2022, parts of a projected $199MM player payroll (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that’d top last season’s franchise-record mark by by around $25MM. Lin writes that some within the organization have suggested there may not be a ton of room to take on additional salary this offseason.

San Diego has tried to save some payroll room by moving Hosmer and/or Myers in trade. Shedding much or all of Hosmer’s money ($61.5MM through 2025) would likely require attaching significant young talent, further thinning a farm system that has depleted as the Padres have pushed their chips in to compete over the past few seasons. It’d probably be easier to find a taker for Myers, who’s entering the final year of his deal. Yet that would also require paying down some money or surrendering young talent, and it’d further deplete an already lacking corner outfield group.

Also complicating matters, the Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. The previous collective bargaining agreement contained escalating penalties for teams that surpassed the tax in multiple consecutive seasons. Where the thresholds are set and whether escalating penalties for repeat payors will persist in the next CBA is to be determined but could affect the Padres willingness to push their payroll higher after the transactions freeze.

San Diego exceeding the tax is also relevant to their chances of pursuing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer from his previous team, as Castellanos did from the Reds. As a tax payor, the Friars would relinquish their second-highest and fifth-highest selections in the 2022 amateur draft as well as $1MM in international signing bonus pool space were they to sign a qualified free agent.

So, if not the Padres, where might Castellanos and Boras turn? The Marlins have been reported to harbor interest in Castellanos, a Miami-area native, since before the offseason even began. The Fish already committed four years and $55MM to Avisail Garcia, but they’re still in the hunt for another bat. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote recently that Castellanos “would welcome” a homecoming deal with the Marlins … but only “if the terms were right.” Fish fans hoping for a hometown discount should probably temper their optimism.

Still, there’s reason to believe that if the Marlins are truly intent on bolstering their lineup, they could at least make the financials on a Castellanos signing work. Miami currently projects to have a payroll just shy of $69MM, and there’s only $27MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for the 2023 season. In terms of a positional fit, they’re already rife with corner outfield options, but GM Kim Ng has told reporters this winter that the team is comfortable utilizing Garcia in center field. It’s also possible, if not likely, that a designated hitter will be added to the National League, which would only give the Marlins — or any other NL club — more at-bats to give to Castellanos.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2022 at 11:16am CDT

TODAY: In another view of Suzuki’s market, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “within the industry the Giants and Mariners are seen as the leading contenders” to land the outfielder.

Jan. 27: The consensus among general managers to whom Peter Gammons of The Athletic has spoken is that the Giants are perhaps the favorites to sign Suzuki (Twitter link). Again, it seems difficult to proclaim any concrete favorite when Suzuki has not yet traveled to the U.S. and is still planning multiple in-person meetings, but that bit of informed speculation is nevertheless of some note.

Elsewhere, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Marlins, known to be in the market for another power bat in the outfield, “appreciate” Suzuki’s skill set and have some level of interest, though he characterizes the Fish as something of a long shot to actually push a deal across the finish line.

Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed.

Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting).

A 27-year-old right fielder who won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in 2021, Suzuki is regarded as the best player to jump from NPB to Major League Baseball since Shohei Ohtani. That’s not a comparison between the two, of course — far from it. Scouting reports on Suzuki peg him as a potential everyday right fielder who can hit for power and play average or better defense, however, which should generate plenty of interest around the league.

MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League evaluators prior to the point at which Suzuki was formally posted by the Hiroshima Carp, receiving generally favorable reviews and hearing at least once that Suzuki is currently the best player in Japan. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times received a similar opinion back in August, and Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a lengthier look at Suzuki in early November.

Statistically, Suzuki checks every box. He posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in Japan, and that’s roughly in line with the type of production he’s delivered dating back to 2018. Over the past four seasons, Suzuki owns a .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He’s also walked nearly as often as he’s punched out, drawing a free pass in 16.1% of his plate appearances against just a 16.4% strikeout rate since 2018.

Of course, it remains to be seen just how Suzuki will fare against more advanced pitching. Major League Baseball features, in particular, considerably higher velocity than NPB hitters face on the regular. That’s often led to some struggles from NPB hitters making the jump to North American ball — including recent examples like Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama — but it should be stressed that Suzuki is younger than either was upon coming to MLB and has a much better offensive skill set.

Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, Suzuki will have 21 days remaining in his 30-day posting window. He and Wolfe are free to use the entirety of that three-week window to find a new club, although given the possibility (if not the likelihood) that the start of Spring Training will be delayed, it could behoove them to act sooner than later in order to begin the process of making the already difficult transition to Major League Baseball.

As a reminder, any team that signs Suzuki will also owe a release fee to the Carp. The current iteration of the NPB/MLB posting system stipulates that an MLB team must pay a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any money spent thereafter. That’s on top of the actual value of the contract. So, for instance, a $55MM contract for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM release fee — a total investment of $65.125MM.

Salary that can be unlocked via club/player options, performance incentives, etc. is not immediately factored in but does fall under the purview of the release fee once Suzuki reaches those thresholds. For example, in that same $55MM hypothetical, if Suzuki’s new team were to exercise a $10MM club option for an additional season, they’d owe the Carp an additional $1.5MM in release fees. Were Suzuki to unlock a $1MM bonus based on total plate appearances, another $150K of release fees would go to the Carp.

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