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Latest On Twins’ Trade Endeavors

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The Twins are known to be working with little to no financial flexibility as the deadline approaches, as ownership’s big-picture revenue concerns continue to limit how much new money the front office can add.  RosterResource projects Minnesota’s payroll at roughly $127.8MM, as offseason cuts have already significant reduced spending from the team’s $158.8MM payroll from 2023.

Exchanging salaries might be the Twins’ most logical way of adding some help to their roster, and with this in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that “the Twins have listened to offers” from other teams about such controllable players as closer Jhoan Duran, and more obvious trade candidates like pending free agents Max Kepler or Manuel Margot.

Of course, listening to offers is a long way off from actively shopping players or having any particular inclination to move them, as Hayes notes that “the cost for Kepler and Duran is said to be extremely high.”  It can be assumed that Margot’s price tag is significantly lower, which isn’t surprising for a backup outfielder hitting .243/.302/.341 over 235 plate appearances this season.  Margot has roughly $1.3MM still owed on the Twins’ $4MM share of his overall $10MM salary for 2024, as the Dodgers are covering the other $6MM as per the terms of the February trade that brought Margot to the Twin Cities.

Kepler’s name has popped up in trade talks several times over the years, and he has about $3.33MM left on his $10MM salary for the 2024 season.  Kepler is a trickier player for Minnesota to replace since he is the primary right fielder and a solid defender, though he hasn’t traditionally had much success against left-handed pitching.  Even against righties, Kepler is hitting a modest .258/.317/.403 in 244 PA this season, so he doesn’t exactly offer a big splits advantage.

With this in mind, it seems perhaps a little odd that the Twins want an “extremely high” return for rental player like Kepler.  However, the Twins likely aren’t keen to substantially diminish their outfield depth given how many injuries the team has already fought through this year, and moving Kepler would then present Minnesota with another challenge in finding a replacement.

Duran is a different story altogether as a trade candidate.  For a team with a limited payroll, Duran is a particularly huge asset since he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, and he is under team control through the 2027 season.  Trading the closer therefore wouldn’t provide any help to Minnesota’s financial concerns, unless perhaps the Twins attached a larger contract along with Duran as part of a trade package.  That tactic, however, would lessen the value of one of the Twins’ top trade chips, in terms of what the team would receive in terms of an on-field return.

In another report earlier tonight, Hayes wrote that the Twins had some talks with the Dodgers about Duran, but wanted players who could help this season, rather than the Dodgers’ preferred offer of prospects.  Trading a closer might be simpler for a team just looking to cut payroll, yet the Twins are trying to thread the needle by both limiting spending and remaining competitive, as the team is in possession of an AL wild card spot and they’re 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

Dodgers Interested In Jhoan Duran

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  • The Dodgers inquired about Jhoan Duran’s availability but couldn’t find a match with the Twins, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports (links to X).  Unsurprisingly, Minnesota wanted a ton in exchange for a closer who is controlled through the 2027 season, and Hayes writes that the Twins are specifically looking for players who can help them win immediately.  Los Angeles, by contrast, was only interested in moving prospects rather than MLB-ready talent.  As it happened, the Dodgers did move one young player with big league experience as part of a larger trade to obtain relief pitching today, as Miguel Vargas and two prospects were sent to the White Sox as part of the three-team deal with the Sox and Cardinals that brought Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman to Los Angeles.

Twins Outright Diego A. Castillo

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July 26: Castillo cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A St. Paul, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com on X.

July 24: The Twins announced Wednesday that they’ve designated infielder Diego Castillo for assignment and optioned right-hander Ronny Henriquez to Triple-A St. Paul. Their spots on the roster will go to reliever Brock Stewart, who’s been activated from the 60-day injured list, and righty David Festa, who’s been recalled from St. Paul.

Castillo, 26, appeared in four games with the Twins and went 2-for-6 with a double, two walks and a strikeout in eight plate appearances. He’s had a nice season in the minors as well, hitting a combined .274/.382/.403 in 296 plate  appearances between the Triple-A affiliates for Baltimore and Minnesota. That marks the continuation of a long run of OBP-driven production in the upper minors. Castillo has played in parts of four Triple-A seasons, and while he doesn’t hit for a ton of power, he’s a .290/.402/.406 hitter in 1073 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s primarily been a shortstop (3906 innings) but also has 1922 innings at second base, 619 innings at third base, 535 innings in left field, 224 innings in right field and 66 innings at first base.

Despite that versatility and a strong Triple-A track record, Castillo hasn’t gotten much big league playing time. He made his debut with the 2022 Pirates and logged a career-high 283 plate appearances. However, he hit just .206/.251/.382. The D-backs gave him one big league plate appearance in 2023, and the Twins have given him all of eight.

It’s certainly arguable that Castillo deserves a longer look somewhere, but a Twins organization that’s deeper in the infield than anywhere else on the diamond was probably never going to have that opportunity. Even with each of Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer and Alex Kirilloff on the injured list, Minnesota has Carlos Santana at first base, Edouard Julien at second base, All-Star Willi Castro at shortstop and top prospect Brooks Lee at third base. Several of the injured Twins will be back sooner than later, too. Lewis began a rehab assignment in Triple-A last night. Miranda will follow suit today.

Minnesota will either trade Castillo or place him on outright waivers within the next five days. Waivers themselves could be another 48-hour process. Castillo will know the outcome of his DFA within the next week.

As for Stewart, his return will be a significant boon for the Twins’ bullpen. The former Dodgers prospect has proven to be an exceptional find on a minor league pact. He’s missed time with injury in each of the past two seasons, but Stewart has added considerable velocity since his rotation days in the Dodgers’ system and has been a bullpen behemoth in Minnesota when healthy. He’s pitched 41 innings dating back to 2023 and carries a remarkable 0.66 ERA with a huge 34.8% strikeout rate against a 10.6% walk rate.

Stewart will slide right into a late-inning, high-leverage mix also including Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Jorge Alcala. Righty Justin Topa also also went out on a rehab assignment yesterday, providing another potential boost in the near future. He’s been out all season with a knee injury but posted a 2.61 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 56.7% ground-ball rate in 69 innings for the Mariners last season. The Twins added Topa in the offseason trade that send Jorge Polanco to Seattle.

Twins Release Jay Jackson

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The Twins released veteran reliever Jay Jackson, tweets Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic. The righty had been outrighted last month and wasn’t on the 40-man roster.

Jackson made 20 MLB appearances with Minnesota early in the year. He struggled to a 7.52 earned run average despite striking out 29 hitters while only issuing nine walks. The longball was the biggest issue. Jackson allowed seven home runs over 26 1/3 innings. It was a marked turnaround from the 2.12 ERA that he’d posted over a similar amount of playing time with the Blue Jays last season.

The 36-year-old Jackson had fired three innings of one-run ball in Triple-A early in the season. He did not pitch there following last month’s outright assignment. Jackson had been on the temporarily inactive list. He’s now a free agent and could find minor league interest once he’s ready to return to action.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Notable Draft Signings: 7/24/24

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A handful of draft prospects have agreed to $2MM+ bonuses over the past two days. Unless otherwise noted, bonuses were first reported by Jim Callis of MLB.com. Pre-draft rankings and scouting reports are provided by Keith Law of the Athletic, Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • Padres first-round pick Kash Mayfield agreed to terms at $3.4421MM. That’s full slot value for the 25th pick to keep him from attending Oklahoma State. Mayfield was the second high school pitcher off the board. The 6’4″ southpaw has a three-pitch mix, advanced control, and can touch 97 MPH. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm. San Diego went with another high school pitcher, Boston Bateman, in the second round. Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports (on X) that he lands an above-slot $2.5MM bonus. Bateman is a massive left-hander with mid-90s velocity and a good slider, but his 6’8″ frame leads to questionable command projection. He’d been committed to LSU.
  • The Brewers agreed to a $3.44MM bonus with first-round pick Braylon Payne. Milwaukee selected the Texas high school outfielder with the 17th selection. Payne was not generally expected to go in the first round. McDaniel was highest on him, ranking 38th in his pre-draft list. Milwaukee cut an underslot deal but still paid Payne like a late first-round talent to sign him out of a commitment to the University of Houston. Evaluators credit Payne with at least 70-grade speed and the ability to stick in center field, though there’s some skepticism about his offensive upside. Second-round pick Blake Burke landed a $2.1MM bonus, Collazo reports (X link). A first baseman from the University of Tennessee, he hit .379/.449/.702 this season.
  • The Dodgers signed #23 pick Kellon Lindsey for $3.3MM, as first reported by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. That’s a bit below the approximate $3.68MM slot value. Lindsey is a high school infielder who’d been committed to Florida. He’s a top-of-the-scale runner who could eventually fit in center field, though he has played shortstop in high school. All four outlets note that Lindsey has similarities to Trea Turner at the same age, though that’d clearly be at the very high end of his range of outcomes. He’s listed at 6’0″ and 175 pounds and might have limited power but could offer a traditional leadoff profile.
  • Rangers first-round pick Malcolm Moore signed for $3MM. That’s just above slot for the 30th selection. A Stanford product, Moore is a left-handed hitting catcher. He’s regarded as a bat-first player with questions about his ability to stick behind the dish, but his hit/power combination made him a first round talent. Moore turned in a .255/.414/.553 slash with more walks than strikeouts this season. He was a draft-eligible sophomore who turns 21 next week.
  • The A’s went above slot to sign second-round pick Tommy White for $3MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). The 40th pick comes with a value around $2.33MM. White’s bonus more closely aligned with the very end of the first round. An LSU product, the righty-hitting White had an OPS above 1.000 in all three college seasons. He hit .330/.401/.638 with 24 homers in his draft year. He has good contact skills and massive raw power, though there’s some concern about his aggressive approach. White played third base in college but isn’t a good athlete and could move to first base in pro ball. Oakland also went above slot with a $2MM bonus for third-rounder Gage Jump, Callis reports (X link). A teammate of White’s at LSU, Jump has a mid-90s fastball and a pair of breaking pitches. Most evaluators project him to the bullpen because of inconsistent control and his smaller stature.
  • The Diamondbacks have agreements with supplemental picks Ryan Waldschmidt and J.D. Dix. Waldschmdit, a righty-hitting outfielder from the University of Kentucky, gets the $2.904MM value associated with the 31st pick. Law ranked him as the #11 player in the class, while FanGraphs and ESPN had him at the back of the top 20. Waldschmidt had a massive junior season, hitting .333/.469/.610. He’s limited to left field but draws praise for his plate discipline and exit velocities. Dix is a switch-hitting high school shortstop from Wisconsin. A Wake Forest commit, he has a well-rounded profile but underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder last fall and spent a chunk of this spring as a designated hitter.
  • Yankees first-round pick Ben Hess agreed to terms at $2.7475MM, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com (on X). He was taken 26th overall, which comes with a slot value around $3.33MM. Hess is a 6’5 right-hander from the University of Alabama. He works in the mid-90s fastball and has a promising slider. Law ranked him 24th in the class and wrote that he has mid-rotation potential. Hess had a mixed track record in college and struggled to throw strikes in his draft year, though. He posted a 5.80 earned run average across 15 appearances this season. The Yanks went above slot in the second round for righty Bryce Cunningham, who signed for $2.2975MM. He had a 4.36 ERA over 16 starts this season for Vanderbilt. The 6’5″ hurler has a three-pitch mix and a chance to stick as a starter.
  • The Phillies have a $2.5MM deal with first-rounder Dante Nori. He was selected with the 27th pick, which comes with a value around $3.23MM. Nori is a left-handed hitting outfielder from Michigan who’d been committed to Mississippi State. Evaluators praise his speed and nascent power potential. He’s significantly older than the typical high schooler, turning 20 not long after the draft.
  • The Twins agreed to a $2.4MM bonus with 33rd pick Kyle DeBarge, Collazo reports (on X). Callis reports that Minnesota also went above slot to sign 69th pick Dasan Hill for $2MM. DeBarge is a 5’9″ shortstop from the University of Louisiana who hit .356/.418/.699 this season. He’s a hit over power player who could project to a utility role. Hill is a lanky left-hander from a Texas high school who had been committed to Dallas Baptist. FanGraphs had him as the #24 player in the class and projected him as a potential mid-rotation starter.
  • 39th overall pick Caleb Lomavita signed with the Nationals. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports (on X) that he landed a $2.325MM bonus that is just below slot value. Lomavita is a righty-hitting catcher out of Cal who has advanced contact skills and a good chance to stick behind the plate. His very aggressive offensive approach leads to some risk about his on-base floor. Lomavita hit .322/.395/.586 during his draft season but only walked 12 times in 55 games. The Nationals acquired the 39th pick from the Royals in the Hunter Harvey trade.

Twins Reportedly Working With Payroll Limitations At Trade Deadline

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The Twins are 55-44 and currently in possession of one of the American League Wild Card spots, as well as sitting just four games back of the Guardians in the Central division. That should put them in clear buyer position ahead of next week’s trade deadline but Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that they might have to walk an “add-and-subtract” tightrope due to financial limitations. Per the report, the Twins would have to move out some money if they were able to acquire any player with a notable salary.

Last year, the Twins broke a notable streak, winning their first playoff game since 2004. Though their season was eventually ended by the Astros in the Division Series, it was a relative high note for the franchise. But any optimism for the 2024 season quickly hit an obstacle.

President of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters in early November, just days into the offseason, that the payroll would be going down. That was seemingly in connection to the club’s TV revenue situation. The club reportedly received $54MM from Diamond Sports Group in 2023 but that company has been in the process of going bankrupt for a while, casting plenty of uncertainty about how things will play out going forward. The Twins and Diamond agreed to a new deal in February of 2024 but it was only a one-year pact and reportedly with reduced fees coming to the club

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Twins reached a new franchise high in 2023 with an Opening Day payroll of $154MM. That dropped to $127MM here in 2024 and it seems there’s not much wiggle room to go much higher than that. It’s not clear if the club is in such a tight spot that they can only consider revenue-neutral trades or if they have the ability to take on a small amount of money, but it seems like the budget will have to be front of mind for the club as they navigate the deadline.

If the scenario does come to pass where they need to move money out to bring some in, they would have some options. Manuel Margot might be somewhat expendable in a fairly crowded position player mix and he’s making $10MM this year, though the Twins are only covering $4MM of that after acquiring him from the Dodgers in February. By deadline time, there will be around $1.3MM of that left to be paid out.

Max Kepler is making $10MM and is an impending free agent but is playing every day and in the middle of the lineup. Ditto for Carlos Santana and his $5.25MM salary. Moving either of those two would be a hit to the club’s lineup, though perhaps they feel they have enough internal position players to make up for the lost production. Infielders Royce Lewis and José Miranda are each on the injured list but nearing returns. That could perhaps push Brooks Lee, who has been covering third base lately, to second base. That could theoretically nudge Edouard Julien from second to first base to supplant Santana. Willi Castro, who has been covering shortstop with Carlos Correa also on the IL, could wind up in the outfield if Lewis or Lee covers short. Trevor Larnach has been the club’s regular designated hitter lately but he could perhaps take more outfield time if that crowded infield spills into the DH slot.

Christian Vázquez is in the second season of a three-year, $30MM deal and is currently one of three catchers on the roster alongside Ryan Jeffers and Jair Camargo. The Twins would likely be open to moving Vázquez and had some trade talks regarding him in the offseason but his performance has been declining and the club would likely have to include some prospects in order to get someone to absorb that money. Kyle Farmer is making $6.05MM this year and has a $250K buyout on a mutual option for 2025 but he’s currently on the injured list. Caleb Thielbar has a $3.225MM salary and is an impending free agent but he has a 5.79 ERA this year. Anthony DeSclafani is making $12MM this year but the Mariners agreed to cover $8MM of that as part of the trade that sent him to Minnesota. He’s done for the year but the Twins could theoretically send a prospect or two to another team in exchange for that club paying the remainder of what they owe DeSclafani.

There are plenty of moving parts there and the Twins will ultimately be making decisions based on what kind of offers are coming their way from other clubs, as well as the health or lack thereof among the players currently on the roster. Ideally, a club in a playoff spot would just be looking to add and not have to play this kind of seven-dimensional chess, but the financial situation in Minnesota might make it necessary.

As to what they will be looking to add, Falvey confirmed that the club is looking for pitching, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. That aligns with previous reporting from Dan Hayes of The Athletic that the club would be looking to bolster its starting staff, perhaps by taking on rentals. Hayes floated Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays as a possible target and Nightengale reports today that the Twins have shown “at least preliminary interest” in him.

Kikuchi signed a three-year deal with the Jays going into 2022 and is now a few months from returning to free agency. The $36MM guarantee was frontloaded, so the lefty made $16MM in the first season followed by successive $10MM salaries in the final two years. By the time the deadline rolls around, there will be roughly $3.3MM left to be paid out.

That’s not a massive sum by baseball standards but if it’s too rich for the Twins, they could always ask the Jays to keep most of that money on their books. Such an arrangement would require the Twins to part with more prospect capital but that might be the way they have to operate if they don’t have financial wiggle room. It’s unclear if the Jays are going to be focused on adding talent or dipping below the luxury tax, but they’re ten games back of a playoff spot and looking to trade their rental players.

If the two sides can work out those finer details, Kikuchi makes plenty of sense for the Twins. They’ve lost DeSclafani for the year and Chris Paddack is on the injured list due to a right arm issue for the second time this summer. David Festa and Louie Varland have struggled at the major league level and are currently on optional assignment.

The club still has a decent foursome in Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson, but there’s also sense in adding to that group as they need a fifth starter and an injury can also change the calculus at any moment.

Kikuchi’s results have been up and down but he’s having a strong season in the aggregate. He’s thrown 111 innings for the Jays here in 2024 with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. He has a 4.54 ERA but at least part of that appears to be due to a .334 batting average on balls in play. His 3.58 FIP and 3.41 SIERA suggest he’s actually been far better than his ERA would suggest. Most of those numbers are roughly in line with his 2023 season, wherein he posted a 3.86 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. His .314 BABIP was closer to league average last year and he had a 4.12 FIP and 3.86 SIERA.

Twins Place Carlos Correa, Chris Paddack On Injured List

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The Twins announced this afternoon that they’ve placed shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list. Correa heads to the 10-day IL due to right plantar fasciitis, retroactive to July 16. Paddack, meanwhile is heading to the 15-day IL (retroactive to July 17) with a right forearm strain. In corresponding moves, second baseman Edouard Julien has been recalled from Triple-A, while utility bat Austin Martin has been activated from the IL.

That Correa is dealing with a bout of plantar fasciitis in his right foot isn’t news, as it was announced prior to the All-Star Break that the shortstop would not participate in the All-Star game due to the issue. It seems he’ll need additional time to rest his ailing foot, however, as he’s now shelved until at least July 26. Plantar fasciitis is generally considered to be a matter of pain tolerance, so it’s unlikely that Correa will remain shelved until it’s fully healed. Even so, it’s not necessarily a surprise that he and the Twins are taking the issue seriously given his struggles while playing through the issue in his left foot last year. While Correa played in 135 games last year, he posted a below-average 96 wRC+ while defensive metrics suggested that his typically excellent defense at shortstop slipped.

That decline in performance while playing through the injury clearly suggested to the Twins and Correa that it would be best for everyone if he took additional time to rest his ailing foot before returning to the lineup, though it’s worth noting that manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) that Correa’s absence isn’t expected to require “several weeks to a month,” with the club anticipating his return sooner than that. For now, however, Correa has received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his foot and will look to recover while Gleeman relays that Willi Castro will get the majority of reps at shortstop in his absence.

With Castro handling shortstop on a regular basis and Brooks Lee covering for the injured Royce Lewis at third base, the Twins are calling on Julien to take back over at the keystone. The 25-year-old posted a pedestrian 97 wRC+ in his sophomore season across 58 games before being optioned down to the minors, where he has subsequently impressed with a 114 wRC+ and an eye-popping 21.2% walk rate. Julien will be joined by Martin, who can provide a right-handed complement to him at second base while also backing up the club’s outfield mix.

As for Paddack, the right-hander’s first full season back from his second Tommy John surgery has been a difficult one. He’s battled injury issues to make 17 starts this season, although even when healthy enough to take the mound he’s struggled to a 4.99 ERA despite solid peripherals such as a 4.19 FIP and a 4.09 SIERA. In spite of those peripherals, however, Paddack’s performance has seen him strike out a career-low 20.6% of batters faced while generating less grounders than ever before, a clip of just 37.3%. While forearm issues are somewhat alarming for a pitcher who has already gone under the knife for Tommy John surgery twice, Baldelli suggested to reporters (including Gleeman) that the club isn’t particularly concerned, believing that the problem is a muscle strain that will heal up with rest.

Even if Paddack is back in action in relatively short order, however, the news only exacerbates Minnesota’s obvious need for help in the starting rotation. While Joe Ryan has impressed as a front-of-the-rotation option and Bailey Ober’s typical mid-rotation production is as steady as ever, Pablo Lopez has surprisingly struggled after entering the season as the club’s ace following the departure of Sonny Gray over the winter while Louie Varland struggled enough in the fifth starter role to be demoted to Triple-A. Simeon Woods-Richardson has done well in Varland’s place, but with the likes of Varland and rookie Dave Festa as the best options to step into Paddack’s rotation spot, it’s easy to see why the Twins are reportedly looking into rental starters ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.

Twins Looking Into Rental Starters

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The 54-42 Twins enter the second half of the 2024 season sitting a dozen games over .500 and in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. After falling behind both the Guardians and Royals early in the year, they’ve leapfrogged Kansas City (54-45) and sit a manageable four and a half games back of Cleveland (58-37) for the division lead. They’re lining up to act as clear buyers at the deadline, and Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that Minnesota would like to add another arm in the rotation — likely a rental.

Adding a starter who’s only controlled through season’s end is sensible for the Twins but a departure from the types of rotation arms they’ve targeted at recent trade efforts. It’s worth remembering that Twins ownership slashed payroll meaningfully this past offseason, cutting down from 2023’s mark of around $155MM to this season’s Opening Day mark of about $127.5MM. That came amid uncertainty regarding the future of the Twins’ television contract with Bally Sports, and given that the eventual resolution was a one-year deal to remain with Bally, it’s not surprising that the club might prefer to avoid committing substantial salary to the 2025 books in the form of acquiring a more controllable arm. (Although to be clear, there’s no indication ownership would be staunchly opposed to adding to the ’25 books.)

A short-term stopgap in the rotation is sensible for reasons beyond the 2025 payroll, of course. The Twins could currently use some extra innings in the back half of the rotation, where Chris Paddack has had an inconsistent season as he pushes his workload back to levels he hasn’t seen since 2019 in what is his first season back from a second career Tommy John surgery. Rookie right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson has enjoyed a breakout year but is 23 innings shy of last season’s total of 118 1/3 innings. Bringing in a veteran arm would offer some stability behind the staff-leading trio of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

Adding to the appeal of a rental, the Twins’ entire slate of 2024 rotation options is controlled/signed beyond the current season. Lopez is signed through 2027. Ryan and Ober are controllable via arbitration through that same year. Paddack is signed through 2025 and presumably won’t have as many workload concerns next year. Woods Richardson can’t reach free agency until the 2030-31 offseason.

The organization’s top two pitching prospects, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, are both in the upper minors and could be in the mix for starts next year as well. (Festa has already made his MLB debut in 2024, though he’s been hit hard in a pair of spot starts.) That doesn’t even include hometown righty Louie Varland, who opened the season as the Twins’ fifth starter but has fallen behind Woods Richardson and Festa on the depth chart. He’s still starting in Triple-A for now, but there’s been plenty of speculation about an eventual move to the bullpen for the former top prospect.

Hayes lists Toronto lefty Yusei Kikuchi as one name the Twins “could” target, though it’s not clear just yet whether the two parties have had any meaningful discussions about the southpaw. Kikuchi is in the final season of a three-year, $36MM contract and is widely expected to be traded, with the Jays buried by 14 games in the AL East and only sitting marginally better in the Wild Card hunt (nine and a half games out).

The 33-year-old Kikuchi has logged 106 innings of 4.42 ERA ball with a sharp 26% strikeout rate and excellent 5.8% walk rate that belie his pedestrian earned run average. After a tough first season in Toronto, he’s proven to be a solid pickup in years two and three of the deal, thanks in large part to his revamped curveball. That said, he’s hit a rough patch of late, stumbling to a 6.00 ERA in his past nine starts (45 innings). His strikeout and walk rates have remained excellent, but a longstanding issue with home runs has once again reared its head; Kikuchi has been tagged for 11 round-trippers in that time (2.2 HR/9).

Detroit’s Jack Flaherty is the most highly regarded rental arm likely to be on the market, though he’d likely command a prospect of note and the Twins might balk at sending a touted farmhand to a division rival. Washington’s Trevor Williams would be among the more clearly available rental arms on the market were it not a for a flexor strain that’s sidelined him since late May. There are a number of potential rental arms who could hit the market in the days ahead, depending on how their respective teams play. The Reds (Frankie Montas), Rangers (Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney), Pirates (Marco Gonzales, old friend Martin Perez) and Giants (Alex Cobb) are all within five games of a playoff spot but could make some sell-side moves if they fall into a losing streak coming out of the break.

Twins Outright Zack Weiss

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The Twins have sent right-hander Zack Weiss outright to Triple-A St. Paul, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic on X. He had been on the 60-day injured list but was reinstated and passed through waivers. The club’s 40-man roster count stays at 40.

Weiss, 32, has never appeared in a big league game for the Twins. He was claimed off waivers from the Red Sox in February and then began the season on the IL due to a teres major strain, getting transferred to the 60-day version in early April. He recently began a rehab assignment, making five appearances in the minors since the end of June. He was going to need to retake a spot on the 40-man roster but the Twins decided to put him on waivers instead.

Since he passed through unclaimed, he’ll stick in the organization as depth without taking up a roster spot. He doesn’t have three years of service time, nor does he have a previous career outright, meaning he can’t elect free agency.

The Twins will therefore get to keep a guy who has put up some intriguing numbers in recent years. Over 2022 and 2023, he tossed 27 1/3 innings in the majors with a 3.29 earned run average. His 11.4% walk rate was on the high side but he struck out 28.9% of batters. In that same period, he also tossed 91 1/3 innings in the minors with a 4.93 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate.

Weiss will report to St. Paul and try to earn his way back onto the 40-man roster. If he succeeds in doing so, he still has two options and less than a year of service time.

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