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Rosenthal’s Latest: Peavy, Guillen, Barrett

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Ken Rosenthal checks in with another fine rumor-filled column.

  • Johan Santana doesn’t seem a great fit for the Angels, partly because he’ll be very expensive and the Halos actually do have a payroll limit.
  • Jake Peavy knows he’d have to take a discount to stay in San Diego…but even a $15MM per year type deal would be unprecedented for them.  He’s under the Padres’ control through ’09.
  • Rosenthal’s sources are divided on whether the Mets will go after Jose Guillen.  Such a scenario is possible if Lastings Milledge and/or Carlos Gomez are dealt.  It’s said that the Mets are still very interested in Livan Hernandez.
  • Chase Headley is very popular.  Rosenthal confirms Scott Miller’s rumored offer of Xavier Nady and Nate McLouth for him, not that the Padres would consider it.  Otherwise the Red Sox are asking for him for Coco Crisp.
  • The Padres will probably offer arbitration to both Mike Cameron and Michael Barrett.  That brings the risk that Barrett accepts, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
  • We already knew the Padres and Rays were in on Geoff Jenkins; add the Phils to the mix.  The Cubs, Giants, Rangers, and Royals have also been linked to him.

Red Sox Leading For Santana?

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UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 10:30pm: The Yankees’ offer stands at Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and maybe Jose Tabata.  Phil Hughes is a big upgrade over Kennedy, and the Twins are insisting on him.  Meanwhile the Red Sox are still pushing Coco Crisp while the Twins are holding out for Jacoby Ellsbury.  If one of the teams cracks on Hughes or Ellsbury this thing might get done.

UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 8pm: Despite what Jon Heyman said, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo seems to think the Red Sox are still in the lead for Santana.  It would be the package named below by Olney.  Nothing is done yet, as Santana’s agent hasn’t been approached about an extension.  Meanwhile Cafardo indicates that the Yankees may part with Robinson Cano after all.  One other note: Peter Gammons suggests that the Sox would have to redo Josh Beckett’s reasonable deal if they acquire Santana and give him $20MM+.

UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 2:50pm: Buster Olney suggests the same package as Walters from the Red Sox, except with Michael Bowden rather than Masterson.  However the fourth player is still undetermined.  He also notes that the Yankees are simultaneously talking to the Twins.

UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 1pm: The Boston Herald has a bit more.  Basically the Red Sox are only willing to include one of Ellsbury/Buchholz/Lester, while the Twins want two from that group. 

FROM 11-29-07 at 8:30am:

Shooter Charley Walters is back with a new column of rumors and whatnot.  Remember, Walters was the one saying the Garza for Delmon rumor wouldn’t die.

  • Despite the exclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury, Walters says the Red Sox have the lead in the Johan Santana sweepstakes.  The package would be Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Jon Lester, and Justin Masterson.  Not a bad haul.  I was thinking Lowrie might become a target of the Twins.
  • The following clubs are interested in Carlos Silva: Tigers, Mets, Phillies, and Royals.  None of those teams are new.
  • The amount of cash each club is getting this year for online media properties like MLB.com sites:  $25MM.  And don’t forget the Twins get about $20MM in revenue sharing.  Maybe that’s why they have interest in Aaron Rowand.

Heyman’s Latest: Santana, Haren, Estrada

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Jon Heyman checks in with a couple of notable points.

  • Heyman sets odds for Johan Santana, going with the Yankees and then Red Sox.  I’ll let you click through for the rest.
  • While we’d recently heard from Ken Rosenthal that the A’s had cooled on certain young Mets, perhaps Omar Minaya and Billy Beane can still work something out. Heyman indicates that Beane still covets Lastings Milledge and Mike Pelfrey.  He also likes Kevin Mulvey, Carlos Gomez, and Fernando Martinez. So maybe Keith Law was right today in his chat – the Mets can pull off a deal with the A’s despite popular belief.
  • The Mets are shopping Johnny Estrada, but it’s not known who’s on the receiving end of those calls.  Along with Estrada, the Mets aren’t jazzed about Bengie Molina.  Though he has been discussed.

Abraham On Hawkins, Igawa, Santana

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Peter Abraham of The Journal News checks in on his blog with a couple of new Yankees tidbits.

  • The Yankees are considering LaTroy Hawkins, Ron Mahay, and a return of Luis Vizcaino among relief possibilities.  Hawkins has the Tigers and Rockies after him.  Mahay interests the Braves, Brewers, and Royals.  Haven’t heard much about the Viz yet.
  • Abraham says there is a market for Kei Igawa.  The Yanks don’t have a rotation spot for him, but they are paying him through 2011.  He’s signed cheaply since a large part of the expenditure was his posting fee.  Other teams known to have shown interest in Igawa at one point: Padres, Orioles, Mariners, D’Backs, Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, Braves, Tigers, and Indians.
  • Abraham does not think the Mets will surrender Jose Reyes, and therefore doesn’t think they can pull off a Johan Santana deal.

Reported Jose Valverde Demands Not Accurate

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UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 10am: Nick Piecoro talked to Valverde’s agent; the below demands are not accurate.  Valverde knows where he stands and that he’s a few years off from cashing in.  Another D’Backs note: they were in on Matt Garza but Carlos Gonzalez didn’t measure up to Delmon Young.

FROM 11-27-07 at 10:30am:

Jose Valverde led the Majors with 47 saves last year, and now he wants to be paid accordingly.  He made $2MM in ’07 in his first year of arbitration.

Listin Diario, a well-known Dominican Republic newspaper, reported on November 9th that Valverde is seeking a four-year deal from the Diamondbacks in the range of $50-60MM (hat tip AZ Snakepit).  Sounds like Valverde wants to be paid like a guy with six years of service time, though he only has four.

Failing a multiyear deal, Valverde is hoping to get $10MM for the 2008 season.  The article says the D’Backs offered $4MM.  If the two sides can’t meet somewhere, they’ll have to go to arbitration.

If Valverde is to get up to the $8-10MM range it makes sense for the D’Backs to shop him as an elite closer under team control through 2009.  He could be involved in a deal for a starter, for example the Tigers’ Jeremy Bonderman (pure speculation).  What are your thoughts on a Valverde deal that might make sense?

Can Mets Acquire An Ace?

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We’ve discussed this before…it seems like the Mets don’t stack up with certain other clubs trying to acquire available frontline starting pitching.  Ken Rosenthal definitely feels this way – Carlos Gomez is considered a blue-chipper but the others may not be.

Rosenthal notes that a package starting with Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman doesn’t do much for Billy Beane.  The A’s don’t see Milledge as a long-term center field solution, and Heilman is a reliever.  Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber aren’t the top-shelf pitching prospects the A’s covet in return for Dan Haren or Joe Blanton.  It seems as if the very best package the Mets can assemble might only be enough for Blanton.

The Mets are also after Johan Santana and Erik Bedard, but it’s the same story.  Unless they create a huge hole by trading Jose Reyes, it doesn’t seem they can offer the best package.  Though the Twins still want Reyes, Adam Rubin and Joel Sherman indicate that’s not an option.   

Dipping into the free agent market for Hiroki Kuroda or Carlos Silva seems to make more sense.  One option the Mets have been linked to in the past, Dontrelle Willis, may be off the market now.

Matt Garza Traded For Delmon Young In Blockbuster

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UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 9pm: It’s now a done deal.  The Twins substituted 21 year-old reliever Eduardo Morlan instead of Rincon.

UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 7:30pm: This thing hasn’t gone through yet because of concerns over Rincon’s elbow.  The deal will either be finalized or killed by Thursday, according to Scott Miller.  The trade has been in the works for a few days.

UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 4pm: Neal reports that the Twins have interest in Aaron Rowand, which is really surprising given his reported demands.  I don’t see it.  Neal adds that Craig Monroe may now be non-tendered and the Garza trade will not stop Bill Smith from shopping Johan Santana.  By the way, talks for Coco Crisp persist.

FROM 11-28-07 at 2pm:

Wow!  That rumor really didn’t die!  La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins are close to a multiplayer deal.  They’ll send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Juan Rincon to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.  I can’t remember any kind of young player blockbuster like this recently. 

It’s exciting to see Bill Smith pull the trigger on a deal to get that possible elite slugger.  Will he be more hesitant to trade Johan Santana now?  Or maybe it doesn’t matter since he’d require an elite young hurler like Phil Hughes in return.  Beyond Young, you also have to applaud Smith for getting Pridie, who immediately becomes the Twins’ center fielder of the future.  The 24 year-old came back from injuries this year to rake in Triple A.  Just like that, the Twins have an outfield.   

Meanwhile the Rays suddenly have an awesome young trio fronting their rotation in Scott Kazmir, Jamie Shields, and Garza.  Rincon’s ability is questionable at this point but he could be the setup man the Rays are craving.

I’ll give the advantage to the Twins but I like this deal for both teams.

Johan Santana Rumors

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UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 7:30pm: Jon Heyman chimes in on the Santana talks.  If the Red Sox continue to keep Ellsbury out of the deal, the Yankees may have the best offer with Hughes, Cabrera, and another pitcher.  The inclusion of Ellsbury would swing it toward the Sox.  It appears the two rivals are battling going head to head on this one.

FROM 11-28-07 at 11:15am:

Let’s review the Johan Santana situation, because there’s been plenty flying around the last couple of days.

  • Yankees: Jon Heyman said yesterday the Twins would want Melky Cabrera plus one of Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy.  LaVelle E. Neal III confirmed the Yankees as one of three teams that have actually had trade talks with the Twins about Santana.  It’s been suggested that Santana would be open to signing a long-term deal in New York.  Aaron Gleeman analyzes Yankees/Santana scenarios here.  Also, Lisa Kennelly and Ed Price are saying Chamberlain and Robinson Cano are untouchable in these talks.  So think Melky and Hughes.  By the way, the Yankees let Aaron Rowand’s agent know that they’ll be interested if they trade the Melkman.
  • Red Sox: The Sox are another of those teams confirmed to have had trade talks about Santana with the Twins.  Heyman said it would take Buchholz or Lester plus Ellsbury.  The Sox want to substitiute Crisp for Ellsbury.  UPDATE: Neal says Jed Lowrie, Brandon Moss, and perhaps Kevin Youkilis have been discussed as well.
  • Angels: The third team confirmed to have had trade talks for Santana.  He’s not atop the Halos’ list though.  I suggested earlier that a package of Brandon Wood, Reggie Willits, and Nick Adenhart would work for the Twins, but seems too steep for one year of Santana.
  • Mets: The Mets have had talks with the Twins as well, according to Buster Olney.  It’s known that the Mets don’t want to include Jose Reyes or David Wright in a deal.  Makes sense.  Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey, and Kevin Mulvey are the other names being tossed around.  But John Harper’s source isn’t so sure Reyes it out of the question, as that might be the only way the Mets can get Santana.
  • Mariners: Larry LaRue says the Twins would want Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, and Jeff Clement.
  • Dodgers:  Though they’ve been linked to Santana, he doesn’t seem to be on the frontburner.
  • Cubs: Long shot and first I’ve heard of it, but George King and Joel Sherman suggest the possibility.  Felix Pie would have to be involved.  Hard to see the Cubs signing Santana to a record-setting extension given their ownership situation.

Brewers Not Likely To Acquire Nathan, Herges

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Tom Haudricourt spoke to Brewers GM Doug Melvin recently to learn more about possible relief acquisitions.

  • Acquiring Joe Nathan or Chad Cordero is highly unlikely, because the Brewers don’t want to create holes at other positions.
  • The Crew has an offer out to one free agent reliever but it’s not Matt Herges.  That conflicts with a report from Haudricourt from November 14th.  Herges must be considering a Mystery Team along with the Rockies.
  • Haudricourt speculates that the offer might be out to David Riske, who I imagine wants at least three years and $12MM.

Johan Demands Changed?

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In this post written at 11am today, I outlined the seven or so clubs with a shot at acquiring Twins ace Johan Santana.  However the acquisition of Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie from the Rays changes everything.

First, the loss of Matt Garza lessens the chances of trading Santana at least a little bit.  The Twins have pitching depth, but that’d be 40% of their 2007 rotation gone.  It was probably always the case, but it’s definite now that if the Twins trade Santana this winter they need a very good MLB-ready starter in return.

Second, the Twins no longer need any outfielders.  Sure, they could add another center fielder to be safe or even move Michael Cuddyer back to third base.  But in my mind third base becomes the primary need for the Twins. 

So now Bill Smith should be looking for an elite young hurler and a similar young third baseman.  The Yankees and Red Sox can’t offer that.  The Mets, Mariners, and Cubs don’t have it either.  The Angels might – Nick Adenhart and Brandon Wood.  The Dodgers could pull it off too, with Andy LaRoche and Chad Billingsley.  How about a wild card like the Reds?  They’ve got Homer Bailey and Edwin Encarnacion.  And I imagine the Twins would find a way to work Jay Bruce in if they could get him.   

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