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Sunday Morning Santana

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana.  As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:

One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."

If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.

MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana.  A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.

Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?

Here’s an intriguing twist.  As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008.  However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded.  If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him? 

Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

Rumors and Questions

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If Cubs make the playoffs, they will be glad not to see the Marlins in the postseason.  After last night’s defeat, the Cubs haven’t beaten the Fish since April… of 2006.

Lots of buzz today, so here are some Rumors and Questions on the day:

  • Florida Marlins Fans, it may be disheartening for you, both of you, to know that David Hyde (with some help from Bill Murray) believes as though either Miguel Cabrera or Dontrelle Willis will indeed be dealt this offseason.  Tim crunched the numbers and thinks they should shed Willis’ contract.  If I had to choose, I’d agree with Mr. Hyde (not Dr. Jekyll) and wave goodbye to Miggy before the D-Train rolls out.  Cabrera is indisputably elite and could net a Hanley Ramirez or two.  Meanwhile, Dontrelle’s value is at an all time low.  Who would you deal?
  • Speaking of former Marlins, Buster Olney thinks the Tigers will re-sign Todd Jones.  When asked who will close for the Tigers next year, Manager Jim Leyland responded with a definitive "don’t know".  Well, maybe he’s getting forgetful in his old age, but we all know who: Joel Zumaya.  But is he ready?  Chris McKosky of the Detroit News isn’t sure.  What do you think?  If only he could lay off that Guitar Hero…
  • The Rangers and the Twins have each expressed interest in both Torii Hunter and, who else, Barry Bonds.  Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire weighs in positively on Bonds, while Joe Christensen says chances are slim but don’t rule it out.  Shooter Charley Walters says the Twins will try to re-sign Hunter.  But Hunter is from outside Arlington, Texas and when asked if he’s thought a little about going home, he told reporters "I haven’t thought about it a little bit.  I’ve thought about it a lot a bit."  Meanwhile, the Rangers players say "Thumbs up!" to Bonds.  I think the Rangers are a natural fit for both of these vets.
  • Also, Ken Rosenthal’s latest video on Foxsports.com breaks down the fates of Managers-Across-The-League.  Interestingly, he begins by praising Joe Torre for doing maybe his best job ever, and then notes how if the Yankees stumble in the postseason he might not be back…

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

Twins Might Offer Torii A Fourth Year

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Was Torii Hunter’s farewell premature?  La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that while the center fielder rejected the Twins’ modest 3/45 offer a few weeks back, the team might be willing to tack on a fourth year. 

For a while now we’ve been hearing that Hunter’s bare minimum is a five-year, $75MM contract.  To jump from three years to five might be impossible for the Twins.  And how sure are we that Hunter would even take that offer?

I agree with Aaron Gleeman on this one: while I might do the same in his shoes, it remains true that Hunter will probably leave the Twins over money.  I’m not one to declare that Hunter should leave $30MM on the table.  But if he really loves the organization and fans, 4/60 would still set up several generations of Hunters for life.

Johan Santana To Buy Home Near Minneapolis

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Now that’s a headline for a slow news evening.  I’d say slow news day, but Ed Wade was hired and that was something to talk about.  Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says Johan Santana will soon close on a pricey new home not far from the Twins’ ballpark.  Word is that Santana strongly considered buying an awesome one-bedroom condo in Lombard, IL but ultimately changed his mind.

I had a little bit too much fun with Google Maps today…here’s a look at Johan’s 23 mile commute to work, whether it’s the Metrodome or the new ballpark in 2010.  Does the purchase imply that Santana will take a huge discount to stay with the Twins when his contract expires after the 2008 season?  Not really.  Athlete real estate purchases are overrated; a couple mil to an athlete is nothing.  The house isn’t going to compel Santana to sign a below market deal if he otherwise wouldn’t.

Can Twins Afford Morneau?

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Twins first baseman Justin Morneau only has about three years of service time, but talk is already starting about his escalating salary.  He’s talked extension with the Twins before, but is still currently going year to year in arbitration.  He’s still under team control through 2010 though.

There was talk earlier this month that Morneau would be agreeable to a six-year deal, which would buy out three years of free agency.  There hasn’t been any indication that the Twins would go past five years though.

Listening to Morneau’s comments yesterday, he doesn’t seem optimistic.  If Morneau keeps doing what he’s doing, he’ll be in line for $18-20MM per year by the time he reaches free agency.  Morneau has seen many Twins leave, with more on the way out.  It’s just a frustrating situation in Minnesota.  Hopefully Bill Smith can aggressively shop his stars for a good return before they leave, or else use the draft picks to find some power hitters.

Terry Ryan To Step Down

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This was unexpected.  Twins GM Terry Ryan will step down from his post after the season with 12 years under his belt.  The Twins have a press conference scheduled this afternoon.

I could write a novel trying to dissect Ryan’s actions.  But in recent years he’s made more poor choices than wise ones.  He’s repeatedly signed bad veterans in lieu of giving jobs to ready young players, and has often failed to fill key needs via trade.

Walters On Morneau, Santana, Nathan

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has some Twins rumors for us today in his Don’t Print That feature.

  • Walters says Justin Morneau would be agreeable to a six-year contract if the Twins are interested.  Walters wrote back in March that the Twins were looking to add a fifth option year to Morneau’s contract at $14MM.  Morneau thought a deal was "pretty close" at that time but of course it hasn’t happened.  By my calculations a six-year contract would buy out three years of free agency.  So it wouldn’t be anything like Joe Mauer’s 4/33 deal.
  • The Twins are expected to make a five-year offer to Johan Santana but they might have to go to six to get something done.  Santana gets a full no-trade clause for 2008 if he finishes top three in the Cy Young voting this year.  Otherwise he can choose 12 teams he can’t be traded to.
  • Walters thinks there’s no chance Joe Nathan stays with the Twins past 2008.  Nathan did have some positive talks with the Twins back in April.

Could White Sox Sign Torii Hunter?

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The Twins came to Chicago on Friday, sparking another round of Torii Hunter speculation for the White Sox.  Hunter, of course, played it cool. He basically said he’d be honored if the Sox wanted him, and wouldn’t have a problem playing for one of the Twins’ biggest rivals.

Remember, though, that Hunter’s bare minimum contract is 5/75 and the White Sox are currently looking at $92MM+ committed for 2008.  Even a backloaded deal would take the Sox close to their payroll limit.  While moving Jon Garland for cheap young players is a distinct possibility, I’m not sure if the rotation can take the hit.  And no one’s taking on Jose Contreras’s contract.  Kenny Williams is in a bit of a pickle as his farm system could use a reload but the team has too many veterans to rebuild.  He could trade them all off but Sox fans would revolt.

Despite the salary concern, Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press names the Sox as Hunter’s leading suitor and crosses the Cardinals off the list.

Torii Hunter Turned Down 3/45 Offer

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According to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins offered Torii Hunter a contract a few weeks ago for three years and $45MM. Ken Rosenthal had reported it as a four-year, $56MM offer, which Hunter denied.  One source of Rosenthal’s had indicated that the bare minimum hunter might accept is 5/75.  Christensen, however, says Hunter is after a deal like the 5/70 J.D. Drew ended up with.  If so, Hunter is being plenty fair with his demand.

Indeed, Hunter’s main concern is the length of the contract.  If he’s coming in at five years and the Twins at three, maybe they can arrive at four.  I could actually see a 4/56 contract as the Twins’ last and best offer.  But Hunter has talked about not wanting to take a discount and a "burning curiosity" to see what’s on the open market.  He seems likely to leave the Twins.

As far as Hunter’s next team, Ken Rosenthal has speculated on the Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Padres, Rockies, Giants, White Sox, and Rangers.

Phillies Interested In Carlos Silva

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Carlos Silva came up through the Phillies’ farm system, switching to relief for his big league debut.  He remained an innings-eating reliever throughout his Phillies tenure, though his hittable, low strikeout style was not suited to the pen.

In December of ’03 the Phils sent Silva and Nick Punto over to the Twins for Eric Milton.  The following season he racked up 14 wins as a starter.  His pinpoint control has made him a very credible back-rotation guy, aside from a rough ’06.

Joining Silva in the under-30 starting pitcher free agent class will be Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kyle Lohse, and Joel Pineiro.  Silva’s the most reliable choice, and he might be able to snag a four-year pact given the weak market.  He’s having a well-timed fine year with a 4.10 ERA in 164.2 innings.

The Phillies have been looking to reacquire Silva for some time now; I believe they had interest last winter after the Twins exercised his $4MM option.  Now La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes of Philadelphia’s continued interest.  The Phils inquired before the July 31 deadline, and would still like to acquire Silva.  Neal believes he has not yet been placed on waivers and would not clear them.  It seems that Terry Ryan missed his chance to extract strong trade value for Silva, though he may have fielded offers and found two draft picks preferable.

I can’t see Silva getting to the Phillies without the Braves, Dodgers, Rockies, Tigers, and Mariners first putting in a claim.   

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