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Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.

There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.

Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)

The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).

Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.

Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)

The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).

The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.

Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)

The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.

Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).

The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.

Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)

The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.

In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.

Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)

The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.

Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.

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Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.

Who do you think will win the AL Central?

Twins Notes: Buxton, Polanco, Gordon, Miranda, Kirilloff, Rotation

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Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey met with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) today at the Twins’ spring camp, and provided several injury updates.  The news is particularly good for Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco, as Falvey said both players are on track to be in the lineup on Opening Day.

“Relying on our medical folks on what they think are the best next steps…but they’re still telling us that [Opening Day is] in play barring anything changing.  And both guys’ feedback has been positive,” Falvey said.

Buxton underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in September, while Polanco didn’t play after August 27 last season due to knee inflammation.  Polanco tried to return in September, but was shut down during a minor league rehab assignment when his left knee continued to feel sore.  With an eye towards both these injuries, the Twins have been slowly easing Buxton and Polanco into spring activity, restricting both players to live batting practices and backfield workouts rather than any game action.  It isn’t yet clear when either player might make their Spring Training debut, but it seems as though the club doesn’t feel Buxton or Polanco will need too many at-bats to get sharp.

A little over a week after suffering a high ankle sprain during a Grapefruit League game, Nick Gordon has started running and hitting, Falvey said.  Naturally any kind of high ankle injury is a concern, but it would seem that Gordon might have landed on the low end of the “wide range of outcomes” manager Rocco Baldelli mentioned last week when discussing possible recovery timelines.  The Twins will be cautious with Gordon but, if all continues to go well, he might also be on target for Opening Day without the need for a season-opening stint on the injured list.

Jose Miranda is also making good progress in his recovery from a sore shoulder, as Falvey said the infielder has started a throwing program.  While Miranda’s shoulder forced him to withdraw from Puerto Rico’s World Baseball Classic team, it hasn’t kept him entirely off the field in Spring Training, as Miranda has still been able to play as a designated hitter.  With just under three weeks to go until Opening Day, Miranda seems on pace to recover in time to take his planned role as Minnesota’s regular third baseman.

Amidst all these positive updates, however, the news isn’t quite as good for Alex Kirilloff.  In comparison to Buxton and Polanco, Kirilloff is “probably the one that’s a little bit behind our schedule,” Falvey said, noting that “it’s kind of a tolerance thing on a daily basis for him” as Kirilloff works his way back from wrist surgery.

Kiriloff made his MLB debut in 2021, and the former top prospect has thus far hit .251/.295/.398 over 387 Major League plate appearances over the last two seasons.  Unfortunately for Kirilloff, each of those seasons was prematurely ended by surgeries on his wrist.  As The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote last month, Kirilloff’s surgery last August was particularly “drastic,” with the intention of correcting Kirilloff’s wrist problem once and for all.  As such, the Twins are taking their time with Kirilloff, holding him out of games and even out of live-pitching sessions, if Kiriloff feels he is only up to work in the batting cages.

With all of these position-player health issues facing the Twins, the pitching staff has been a comparatively lesser concern, as Minnesota’s rotation candidates have by and large looked both healthy and in good form during their spring outings.  It has gotten to the point that Falvey said the team is weighing the possibility of a six-man rotation.

“That wasn’t our plan as we entered camp,” Falvey said.  “It still, I wouldn’t say, is our plan, but there’s at least a conversation we’ve been having internally about how that could work and what it would mean for the bullpen, how would we navigate that.  Some of it will be health-dependent, but we’re open to the conversation maybe more now than I was a month ago.”

A six-man rotation would create a spot for Bailey Ober to get some MLB starts, as Ober would join the projected rotation of Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, and Sonny Gray.  The Twins aren’t likely to finalize any rotation plans until after Lopez returns from the WBC, but a six-man rotation would give more rest to Mahle and Maeda as they return from injuries.  It would also help Minnesota navigate a pretty busy early schedule, as the club has only two off-days in the month of April.

AL Injury Notes: Alvarez, Moore, La Stella, Winder, Vierling

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Yordan Alvarez’s lingering hand soreness has continued to bother the Astros slugger this spring, yet Alvarez took a noteworthy step today when he hit the batting cage to take some soft-toss swings.  Alvarez emerged from the session with no problems, though manager Dusty Baker didn’t give reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) any hints about Alvarez’s next steps.  Neither Baker or Astros GM Dana Brown have seemed overly concerned about Alvarez’s injury, and in lieu of any other developments, it would appear as though the ALCS MVP will be in the Astros’ lineup come Opening Day.

More updates on other injury situations from around the American League…

  • Dylan Moore has yet to play this spring as he recovers from offseason core surgery, but the Mariners utilityman is “closing in on playing,” according to GM Jerry Dipoto.  In an interview on the Brock and Salk Show on Seattle Sports 710AM radio, Dipoto said Moore is on pace to be part of the Opening Day roster, and Moore is “now at full-go on the backfields and running, changing direction, and all those good things.”  Dipoto also feels Tommy La Stella will be set for the Mariners’ opener, though La Stella has been battling an elbow injury.  The team’s plan is to ease La Stella back into action as a DH, and then get him some fielding work in games early next week.
  • Josh Winder threw a bullpen session on Wednesday and is slated for another bullpen during the weekend, the Twins told reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).  Wednesday’s outing marked Winder’s first bullpen of the spring, as the right-hander has been bothered by a sore shoulder.  This particular injury is especially troublesome for Winder given that shoulder problems also hampered him in each of the last two seasons, though if he is able to get back into game action relatively soon, he can still be an option for the Twins’ season-opening bullpen.
  • A posterior knee muscle strain has sidelined Matt Vierling for the last few days, but the Tigers outfielder will be back to baseball-related activities as soon as this weekend, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes.  Acquired from the Phillies as part of the Gregory Soto trade in January, Vierling is projected for regular duty in Detroit’s outfield this season, after being mostly a part-time player in his first two MLB seasons in Philadelphia.

Twins Sign Andrew Stevenson To Minor League Deal

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The Twins have signed outfielder Andrew Stevenson to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com.

This will be just the second organization in the career of Stevenson, who turns 29 in June. He was drafted by the Nationals in 2015 and has spent his entire career in that organization thus far. That included 248 major league games from 2017 to 2021, wherein Stevenson hit .248/.322/.365. His 8.2% walk rate was around league average but he also struck out at a 28.1% clip. Overall, his production amounted to a wRC+ of 84, indicating he was 16% below league average.

Stevenson played all three outfield positions in that time and was generally graded well at all three. Looking at his outfield work in aggregate, he posted a +2 from Defensive Runs Saved, +1 from Outs Above Average and +2.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

He was outrighted in April of last year and spent the season in Triple-A, having a solid showing at the plate there. He hit 16 home runs and slashed .279/.344/.457 for a 111 wRC+, stealing 39 bases along the way. He didn’t get called back up to the big league squad and reached free agency at season’s end.

Stevenson is a solid depth add with his speed and defense, but he might have trouble cracking the Twins’ roster. They already have Byron Buxton and Michael A. Taylor set to handle center field duties, with a bunch of left-handed hitting options for the corners such as Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Kirilloff could be playing first base everyday and Gordon could be in a super utility role, but it’s still a fairly crowded group.

If Stevenson is able to muscle his way in there and crack the roster, he’s out of options, limiting his roster flexibility. However, he does have less than three years of MLB service time, giving the club the ability to retain him for future seasons via arbitration if he breaks out at the plate.

Austin Martin Shut Down With UCL Sprain

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Twins prospect Austin Martin has been shut down with a sprained UCL, according to The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. It is currently unknown what Martin’s timetable for return looks like. That being said, UCL sprains are common precursors to Tommy John surgery. While that procedure is more serious for pitchers than position players, such a surgery would likely spell the end of Martin’s 2023 season if it were to be deemed necessary.

Martin, 24 later this month, was taken by the Blue Jays as the 5th overall pick in the 2020 draft. Upon being traded to the Twins as part of the Jose Berrios deal, he was a highly regarded prospect, nearly cracking the top 20 of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects list in 2021 and slashing an above average .270/.414/.382 during his first professional campaign. Since that time, though, Martin missed six weeks of the 2022 season with injury and struggled mightily when he was able to take the field, slashing just .241/.367/.315 in a repeat of the Double-A level last year, good for a below average wRC+ of just 89, though he did steal an impressive 34 bases in 90 Double-A games while being caught just 5 times.

As previously mentioned, the timetable for Martin’s return to action is currently unknown. Regardless of whether Martin’s ultimate prognosis is that severe or something less serious, though, the former top prospect has hit another frustrating roadblock on his path to the big leagues. Even a relatively short absence would force Martin to prove his health on top of returning to form offensively in order to get on the radar for a big league debut sometime this year. Martin is Rule 5 eligible this offseason, meaning the Twins will have to add him to the 40-man roster or risk him being selected by another club in the Rule 5 Draft this December.

As for Minnesota, their remarkable position player depth should allow them to weather this injury relatively painlessly. While it’s certainly unfortunate to potentially lose an upper-minors prospect who could be plugged into the infield or outfield as necessary, particularly with Royce Lewis and Gilberto Celestino already on the shelf, the Twins still figure to have Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and 2022 first round pick Brooks Lee starting the season in the upper levels of their minor league system, and possess a deep bench including Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Michael A. Taylor.

Twins’ Nick Gordon Diagnosed With High Ankle Sprain

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TODAY: Gordon’s MRI didn’t show any damage beyond the sprain, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).

MARCH 3: Twins utilityman Nick Gordon exited today’s game after making an off-balance throw to first base, and he’s been diagnosed with a “mild to moderate” high ankle sprain, tweets Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic. Gordon, who was in the game at second base, was wearing a walking boot and on crutches after the game. He’s out through at least Monday, though he’ll continue to be evaluated in the interim.

Manager Rocco Baldelli fortunately told reporters after the game that the issue doesn’t look too severe, though he noted “there’s a wide range of outcomes” in his return timetable (via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Even if turns out to be a relatively minor concern, Baldelli suggested Gordon was likely to require “a little time off his feet.”

Gordon, 27, broke out with a solid .272/.316/.427 batting line, nine homers, 28 doubles, four triples and six stolen bases in 443 plate appearances last season. The former No. 5 overall pick perhaps hasn’t lived up to that draft billing, but he entered spring training with a spot locked down as a vital utility option in Minnesota. Gordon saw time at second base, shortstop, third base and all three outfield slots for the Twins in 2022, and his offensive output was 11% better than a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+.

The Twins boast a deep group of position players, with Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer both joining Gordon as backup infield options, while defensive standout Michael A. Taylor provides another option at all three outfield slots. Minnesota’s signing of Solano likely pushed corner outfielder/designated hitter Trevor Larnach off the big league roster by simple virtue of the fact that he has a minor league option remaining. If Gordon were to miss any time early in the season, Larnach would likely find himself all but assured an Opening Day roster spot — particularly since fellow outfielder Gilberto Celestino is out for the next six to eight weeks following thumb surgery.

Gilberto Celestino Out 6-8 Weeks Following Thumb Surgery

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Twins announced today that outfielder Gilberto Celestino has ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, as relayed by Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Celestino underwent surgery and is looking at a recovery period of six to eight weeks.

Celestino, 24, got his first extended taste of the majors last year, getting into 122 games for the Twins. He wasn’t able to contribute much on the offensive side of things, as he hit just a pair of home runs in 347 plate appearances. He did walk at a healthy 9.2% rate but his .238/.313/.302 batting line amounted to an 82 wRC+, indicating he was 18% below the league average hitter.

He is considered a strong defender and the metrics seemed to back that up last year. He played all three outfield spots but more in center than the corners. His work up the middle led to two Defensive Runs Saved, three Outs Above Average and a 0.3 mark from Ultimate Zone Rating. That kind of competent center field defense held value for a club that has the frequently-injured Byron Buxton as its primary option at the position.

However, the Twins pushed Celestino down the depth chart this offseason by acquiring Michael A. Taylor. One of the best defensive outfielders in the game, he figures to be Buxton’s primary backup in center. The club also has a pile of corner outfield options, including Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner.

Given all of those options, Celestino was a long shot to make the club’s Opening Day roster. But considering the way a mountain of injuries sunk the team in 2022, any blow to the club’s depth is at least mildly concerning.

Once Celestino is healed, he will likely require a rehab assignment to get into game shape. Depending on how the club feels about his prognosis, it’s possible that he could be placed on the 60-day injured list in the coming weeks. Players are eligible to be moved to the 60-day IL now but the clock doesn’t start counting down until Opening Day, which is March 30. If the club doesn’t expect Celestino back to game readiness by the end of May, they could use his roster spot on a waiver claim, a signing or for adding a non-roster invitee.

For Celestino, he still has one option year remaining. Even once he is healthy, it’s possible he’ll stick in the minors, depending on what else is happening with the big league club. That could make this a make-or-break year for him, which makes this setback an unfortunate development for him on a personal level.

AL Notes: Miranda, Biggio, Dirden

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Twins third baseman José Miranda has withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic due to shoulder soreness, reports Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. He was set to play for Puerto Rico in the upcoming tournament but will instead stick in camp with the Twins.

Manager Rocco Baldelli spoke with members of the media about the issue today, with Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com relaying some pertinent quotes (Twitter links). It seems the main issue is throwing, as Miranda is still able to hit and will be serving as the designated hitter in some upcoming games. “We’re still quite hopeful that he’s going to be ready to go Opening Day, but he’s not throwing right now,” Baldelli said. “We don’t have larger concerns or long-term concerns. We think he’s going to be OK, but he needs some time.”

It doesn’t seem like Miranda is in danger of an extended absence since he can still serve as the DH, but if he can’t take the field, the club will have to think about who will play third base until Miranda is ready to go. This offseason, the Twins traded away Gio Urshela and Luis Arraez, clearing out their corner infield spots for players like Miranda and Alex Kirilloff. Without Miranda, the hot corner could potentially be manned by Kyle Farmer or Donovan Solano.

Some other notes from around the American League…

  • Cavan Biggio has primarily been an infielder for the Blue Jays but could spend significant time in the outfield this season. Manager John Schneider tells Keegan Matheson of MLB.com he expects Biggio to play “a ton” of outfield this year, perhaps as much as a 50-50 split with his infield work. Biggio has 383 innings of outfield work on his résumé thus far, significantly less than the over 2,000 innings he’s split between second base, third base and first base. Whit Merrifield, acquired at the trade deadline this year, seemed to take over as the club’s primary option at second base after coming aboard. With Matt Chapman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the corners and players like Santiago Espinal and Addison Barger competing for bench jobs, it’s possible Biggio’s best path to playing time is on the grass/turf. The regular outfield in Toronto should consist of George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier, but Biggio could perhaps serve as the fourth outfielder if Merrifield, who also plays the outfield, is sticking at the keystone. Biggio hit .240/.368/.430 in his first two seasons for a 118 wRC+ but has dealt with back injuries in the past two, leading to a diminished line of .213/.320/.353, wRC+ of 90.
  • Astros outfielder Justin Dirden is impressing in camp and could potentially nab a roster spot at the end of spring. “Who knows? We’ll see who’s injured, who’s not, who’s playing well and what we need. Everyone is getting about the same shot to impress us,” manager Dusty Baker tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. “I’m impressed with him. We’re impressed with him. That’s why he’s here. He’s getting a lot of playing time, a lot of looks, and he’s playing well. He’s playing very well.” It’s been quite a journey for Dirden, 25, who was not selected in the shortened 2020 draft and signed with the Astros afterwards as an undrafted free agent. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball since that time, including a .274/.397/.537 line in 2021 between Class-A and High-A. Last year, he got bumped to Double-A and hit 20 home runs in 92 games, slashing .324/.411/.616 for a wRC+ of 157. He got a late-season promotion to Triple-A and struggled but is now turning heads in Grapefruit League games. His ability to play center field gives him a chance to compete with Jake Meyers for a backup outfielder job behind Chas McCormick, Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Those four are expected to take up the three outfield jobs and designated hitter slot, but an injury could always open up a path for both Meyers and Dirden to make the team. Brantley is making his way back from last year’s shoulder surgery while Alvarez is dealing with continued hand soreness.

Twins Sign Jeff Hoffman To Minor League Deal

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Right-hander Jeff Hoffman has signed a minor league contract containing multiple opt-outs with the Minnesota Twins, reports Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. Per FanSided’s Robert Murray, the opt-outs are for March 28, May 15, and June 15. The deal pays Hoffman $1.3MM when in the majors, and includes $50K incentives for pitching appearances in each of 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 games, meaning the deal’s potential value maxes out at $1.6MM total.

Hoffman, 30, was the 9th overall pick in the 2014 draft, selected by the Blue Jays. Following a swap to Colorado as part of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, Hoffman came up as a member of the Rockies in 2016, and spent parts of five seasons in a swing role for the club. Despite racking up 230 2/3 innings for the club across those five years, Hoffman never found his footing in Colorado, pitching to a 6.40 ERA (79 ERA+) with a 5.58 FIP.

Even in spite of those struggles, Hoffman’s top prospect pedigree, impressive stuff, and ability to start all intrigued the Reds enough to swap reliever Robert Stephenson for him ahead of the 2021 campaign. Out of Coors Field for the first time in his big league career, Hoffman posted back to back seasons with an above average ERA+ in 2021 and 2022, combining for a 4.28 ERA (108 ERA+) and 4.86 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work. The 2022 season in particular was a strong one for Hoffman, who pitched largely out of the bullpen en route to a 3.83 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.30 FIP in 44 2/3 innings.

That encouraging uptick in performance wasn’t enough for Hoffman to avoid getting non-tendered in November, however, and it’s easy to see why the Reds may have had concerns: Hoffman struggled with his control during his time in Cincinnati, walking a 12.8% of batters faced over the last two seasons, and his success last year may have been predicated, at least in part, on an unsustainable 7.5% of his fly balls leaving the yard despite an 8.7% barrel rate.

Now, Hoffman is set to compete for a role on Minnesota’s pitching staff. Such a role seems likely to come in the bullpen, given the club’s deep group of rotation options. Hoffman seems particularly likely to compete for a spot in the Twins bullpen with fellow new arrival Dennis Santana, who was claimed off waivers from the Braves earlier today. Both right-handers have big stuff and have to this point in their careers struggled with control, but has shown himself to be an interesting long-relief or swing option in the big leagues, as well.

In this hypothetical camp battle, Hoffman has prospect pedigree on his side, but Santana has the advantage of youth in addition to even more impressive stuff: his fastball ranked in the 91st percentile in 2022, per Statcast, while Hoffman’s ranked in just the 61st percentile (albeit with a more impressive 93rd percentile spin rate). Should Hoffman not make the Opening Day roster in Minnesota, the three opt-outs in his deal will provide him with ample opportunities to test the open market again, should he so choose.

Twins Claim Dennis Santana

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The Twins have claimed right-hander Dennis Santana off waivers from the Braves, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune reports. In a corresponding move, Twins shortstop Royce Lewis will be transferred to the 60-day IL. Atlanta had acquired Santana from the Rangers earlier this offseason in exchange for cash considerations. The Braves have announced the waiver claim. There had been no previous indication Santana was removed from Atlanta’s roster but they evidently tried to pass him through waivers in recent days.

Following brief stints in the majors with the Dodgers in 2018 and 2019, Santana got his first extended run of playing time in the shortened 2020 season, where he pitched out of the Dodgers bullpen in twelve games. Santana struggled in those appearances, racking up a 5.29 ERA and 5.72 FIP throughout the season. He stuck with the Dodgers into the first half of the 2021 season, though his struggles in LA continued until he was traded to the Rangers in June of that year. While Santana never found his footing in LA, struggling to a 6.48 ERA, 32% worse than league average, across his 40 2/3 innings as a Dodger, he was able to turn a corner upon arriving in Texas.

As member of the Rangers, Santana pitched to a well above average 3.63 ERA (123 ERA+) in 2021, a figure that was largely backed up by his solid 4.15 FIP. These improved results stood as Santana was catching up to his own talents as a flamethrower. His fastball had always been impressive, with his 96 mph 4-seamer ranking in the league’s 81st percentile in terms of velocity. Still, red flags were present, as Santana continued to struggle with his control. He walked a whopping 13.5% of batters in 2021 while striking out just 19.4%.

Unfortunately for Santana, 2022 proved to be a difficult season. Despite an uptick in velocity raising his fastball to an average of 97.7 mph and improved barrel and whiff rates, the right-hander’s strikeout and walk improvements, to 21.2% and 11% respectively, still left him below league average in those regards. When those below average rates are combined with an extremely low 54.3% of Santana’s runners being left on base, it’s easy to see how his ERA ballooned up to 5.22 in 2022, 24% below league average. Still, that fluky lack of stranded runners kept his FIP at a much more palatable 3.35 for the year, leaving reason for optimism headed into the 2023 season.

Santana now joins a Twins bullpen mix that includes the likes of Emilio Pagan and Jorge Alcala set to work the middle innings to bridge the gap between the starting rotation and back-end options Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, and Caleb Thielbar. The acquisition of Santana also helps Minnesota build up a depth of relievers who can go multiple innings. This would help the club keep players like Josh Winder and Cole Sands in starting role at Triple-A, which the organization has previously stated as its preference. Santana is out of minor league options, meaning that if the Twins wish to retain him in the organization without putting him on the Opening Day roster, they’ll have to attempt to pass him through waivers at some point this spring.

As for Lewis, he had the misfortune of tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year. That was the same ligament he tore the previous year, leading to two straight seasons ended by ACL surgery. At the time of that injury diagnosis, his estimated timeline was given as 12 months, meaning he likely won’t be able to rejoin the club until June and making this IL placement an expected result.

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