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Brewers Interested In Trevor Story, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Gibson

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The Brewers are looking to add to their NL Central-leading roster, and are considering some big names.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links) reports that Milwaukee has shown interest in Twins third baseman Josh Donaldson and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, and The Athletic’s Levi Weaver tweets that Rangers right-hander Kyle Gibson is also on the Brewers’ radar.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold indicated this past weekend that the team would look into adding some hitting help,  as the Brew Crew has managed their success despite middling numbers in most major offensive categories.  Of course, Milwaukee has already made two notable trades to land hitters, obtaining Rowdy Tellez from the Blue Jays earlier this month and landing Willy Adames as part of a four-player deal with the Rays way back in May.  Tellez has looked great in his brief (30 plate appearances) since joining the team, while Adames has been nothing less than spectacular in hitting .294/.388/.537 over 232 PA.

Adames would seemingly be locked in at the everyday shortstop, though adding Story could create an interesting dilemma about who plays the position.  Both players are strong defenders, and since Kolten Wong is one of the game’s better defensive second basemen, third base would be the most obvious landing spot for either Adames or Story.  Such contenders as the White Sox and Padres were known to be considering Story at other positions, and it could be that Milwaukee was another one of the teams thinking of a creative use of Story’s ability.

Of course, just acquiring an actual third baseman like Donaldson would be a cleaner way of upgrading the hot corner, though that trade would offer another of complications.  Story is a free agent after the season, while Donaldson is guaranteed at least $50MM through the end of the 2023 (with a club option for 2024 that would add another $8MM to the ledger).  Donaldson would also be owed a $2MM bonus in the event of a trade, and it isn’t known if the Brewers are one of the clubs on Donaldson’s five-team no-trade list.

Donaldson also turns 36 in December, making him a riskier proposition for such a long-term deal even though he is still delivering big production in his age-35 season.  The Brewers already have big money committed to Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, and Yelich has been hampered by injury over the last seasons while Cain has had two injury-plagued years sandwiched around his decision to opt out of most of the 2020 campaign.

It would stand to reason that the Twins would at least listen to offers involving getting a mid-30’s player off their own books.  That said, Minnesota doesn’t have much future money committed, and the Twins are reportedly not looking to move players controlled beyond this season since the team is planning to bounce back and contend again in 2022.

Gibson is himself controlled through 2022, but at a modest $8MM price tag for next year plus the remainder (roughly $3.2MM) of his 2021 salary.  While every team wants as much pitching as possible, Gibson might be something of a luxury for a Brewers team that has gotten great-to-solid results from its rotation.  Milwaukee could see adding Gibson as a way of limiting innings for everyone to keep the rotation fresh for the postseason, and to add further length and depth to the bullpen.  However, there are many other teams with more pressing pitching needs looking at Gibson, so it remains to be seen if the Brew Crew would be willing or able to outbid the field for the veteran righty.

Twins Sign First-Round Pick Chase Petty

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The Twins have announced the signing of first-round pick Chase Petty.  MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports a $2.5MM bonus for Petty, slightly below the $2,653,400 assigned slot price for the 26th overall pick.

Pundits were a little split on Petty’s draft stock, with MLB Pipeline (27th), Baseball America (29th) and The Athletic’s Keith Law (33rd) all placing the right-hander roughly around his actual draft spot, while Fangraphs (55th) and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (65th) weren’t quite as high.

Velocity is the calling card for the New Jersey high schooler, as Petty has cracked the 100mph threshold with his 70-grade fastball.  The issue is that Petty’s control of that big fastball is a little spotty, limiting the pitch’s effectiveness.  Petty also doesn’t have a smooth delivery and is a little undersized, so his eventual future might be in the bullpen.  However, given how Petty combines his fastball with a plus slider and a promising changeup, the Twins will definitely give the 18-year-old every opportunity to stick as a starting pitcher.

Twins’ Owner: Team “Absolutely Not” Going Into Rebuild

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Anyone who’s even loosely followed the 2021 MLB season knows it’s been a disaster year for the Twins. The American League Central’s last-place club, Minnesota has already traded Nelson Cruz, will likely trade Michael Pineda in the coming days and will surely have interest in several other key pieces. That said, given the team’s payroll space, cost-controlled group of young hitters, solid farm system and other factors, it’s long seemed likely they’ll aim to reload and be competitive again in 2022. Owner Jim Pohlad effectively confirmed that this week in an interview with Dan Hayes of The Athletic.

Asked by Hayes whether this nightmarish season could “change your direction to rebuilding,” Pohlad replied emphatically: “Absolutely not. We want to be in the win window all the time. We expected that to be the case this year.”

Obviously, that didn’t happen for the Twins, who have weathered absences for Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, Kenta Maeda, Pineda and others. More problematic has been that nearly all of Minnesota’s offseason free-agent expenditures (the since-traded Cruz being a notable exception) have failed to live up to expectations.

The subsequent 43-58 record has positioned the Twins as a clear deadline seller, but Pohlad’s comments today reinforce what was already widely expected: this isn’t likely to be an “everything must go” fire sale. The team is receiving interest in players controlled beyond 2021, most notably top starter Jose Berrios, but the asking price on him has reportedly been high and focused on near-MLB assets. Given Pohlad’s comments and the fact that the Twins zeroed in on Triple-A pitchers in last week’s Cruz trade — both Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman could be options in Minnesota this year — that focus on big-league-ready talent is to be expected.

All of this is particularly worth considering as the clock ticks toward Friday’s 4pm ET trade deadline. For instance, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted this morning that the Twins have had some early talks on Kepler. That was already known after multiple reports linked Kepler to the Yankees last week, but the broader question of Kepler’s general “availability” (or lack thereof) should be considered in conjunction with ownership’s comments. Were the Twins looking to completely start over, players like Kepler, Berrios, Taylor Rogers (prior to his finger injury) and others would be strong trade candidates. As it stands, they’re more long shots with weighty asking prices.

It’s also possible that some of the impending free agents who do seem like locks to move could be flipped and then again pursued in free agency. Pineda, who pitched well tonight in what could be his final start with the Twins, told reporters after the game that Minnesota has come to feel like home and he hopes to remain (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park). A trade still seems overwhelmingly likely, but Hayes tweets that Pineda would have interest in returning for 2022 and beyond even if (or when) he is ultimately traded this week.

Latest On Jose Berrios

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The Twins are discussing Jose Berrios with multiple teams including the Padres and Dodgers, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets are not one of those other clubs at this time.

Berrios, 27, figures to be wildly popular on the trade market since he’s under team control for 2022 as an arbitration eligible player.  He ranks ninth in MLB with 121 2/3 innings, sporting a 3.48 ERA, 25.7 K%, and 6.5 BB%.  Berrios appears to have little interest in giving the Twins a discount on an extension, so naturally the team is listening to potential trade offers.  Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote this month, “Early indications are the Twins asked another team that inquired about Berríos for a pre-arb player and two top-100 prospects.”  Speaking of top 100 prospects, Baseball America just updated their list.

In an earlier tweet, Morosi suggested the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies “are active in the starting pitching market now.”  But it’s difficult to name any contender that couldn’t push aside their worst starting pitcher for Berrios.

Mets More Focused On Rental Pitchers

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The Mets are in the market for pitching, reports SNY’s Andy Martino, who notes that they’re more focused on rentals than players controlled beyond 2021.  The Mets recently added ageless southpaw Rich Hill, who made his club debut yesterday with a five-inning start, but they remain in the market for pitching of all kinds.  The Mets’ injured list for pitchers is extensive, with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Robert Stock, Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Yamamoto, Robert Gsellman, Stephen Nogosek, Corey Oswalt, and Sean Reid-Foley.  Dellin Betances and Joey Lucchesi are out for the season due to Tommy John surgery, but Carrasco is close to making his Mets debut.

According to Martino, the Mets “intend to check in” with the Nationals about ace Max Scherzer, though such a trade would be a tough pill to swallow for the Nats.  Twins righty Jose Berrios is not a Mets target at this time, says Martino, in fitting with his point that New York prefers rentals so as not to deplete their farm system.

So what might the market for rental starting pitchers look like?  Narrowing to teams with less than a 10% shot at the playoffs according to FanGraphs, Scherzer, Jon Gray, Zach Davies, Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Anderson, J.A. Happ, Andrew Heaney, Jose Urena, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester, Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, Jose Quintana, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Trevor Cahill fit the bill.  Not all of those pitchers are necessarily healthy or effective, but we’re casting a wide net.

Potential rental relievers include Raisel Iglesias, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Dan Winkler, Steve Cishek, Hansel Robles, Brad Hand, Josh Tomlin, Bryan Shaw, Greg Holland, Yimi Garcia, Alex Colome, Daniel Norris, Tony Watson, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens, Ross Detwiler, Joakim Soria, Chasen Shreve, Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, Derek Holland, Blake Parker, Shane Greene, and Erasmo Ramirez.

Michael Pineda Drawing Trade Interest

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Twins righty Michael Pineda is drawing trade interest, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  The 32-year-old takes the bump tonight at Target Field against Matt Manning and the Tigers, in what figures to be a well-scouted affair.  According to Darren Wolfson of KSTP TV, the Twins have not held extension talks with Pineda, who’s due for free agency after the season.  Wolfson notes that the Padres have scouted Pineda this month.

The cellar-dwelling Twins dealt one impending free agent last week as they shipped Nelson Cruz to the Rays.  In addition to Pineda, Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, and Hansel Robles are set for free agency after the season and may be sent packing by Friday’s deadline.  More desirable, but perhaps less likely to be dealt, are a trio of quality Twins players who are controlled through 2022: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers.  The Twins figure to be central to this year’s trade deadline action.

The Twins re-signed Pineda to a two-year, $20MM deal back in December 2019, despite the knowledge that he’d miss the first 39 games of 2020 due to a PED suspension.  Assuming Pineda is making $10MM this year, more than $3MM will remain at the deadline.  Pineda sports a 3.93 through 13 starts this year, missing time with thigh and forearm injuries.  Pineda’s average fastball velocity is down to a career-worst 90.8 miles per hour this year.  On a related note, he’s punched out only 21% of batters faced, his worst mark since 2014.  Pineda’s strong control remains intact, with a walk rate south of 6%.  As a flyball-heavy hurler, he’s always been prone to the longball.

Despite adding Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove in the offseason, the Padres continue to seek starting pitching depth.  Dinelson Lamet, working his way back from forearm inflammation, will make a temporary move to the bullpen once he returns.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune previously linked the club to Kenta Maeda, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Danny Duffy, and Jon Gray.

As Jon Heyman of MLB Network sees it, almost all contenders aside from perhaps the White Sox and Astros are prioritizing starting pitching.  Morosi sees at least seven contenders as active in the starting pitching market at present: the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies.  Though Morosi did not mention the Mets, SNY’s Andy Martino says they’re in the market for help in both the rotation and bullpen, with a focus on rentals.

Could The Twins Move Multiple Players In One Deal?

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  • The Twins are considering all options as the trade deadline approaches, including the possibility of including two or more players together in a single trade.  In an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM earlier today, Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told Jon Morosi and company that such a package deal is “something we have talked about.”  Possibilities abound for such trades, though since the Twins are reportedly not keen to move players controlled beyond 2021, however, I would think a package deal might be more suited as a way of generating a greater return for rental players.  Someone like Andrelton Simmons or Michael Pineda alone might not bring back much in the way of prospects, but putting the two veterans into one deal might get a team to budge on a slightly higher-tier minor leaguer.  Conversely, the Twins could also look into packaging a rental player with someone with more control (i.e. Byron Buxton or Taylor Rogers).

Twins, Byron Buxton Unable To Reach Extension

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The Twins and franchise cornerstone Byron Buxton have been unable to come to terms on a contract extension, increasing the likelihood of a full-scale sell-off before Friday’s trade deadline. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes report that the Twins’ initial offer was for $73MM over seven years with an unspecified number of incentives. The Twins “increased the guarantee slightly,” but not enough to come to a long-term agreement. The final guarantee increased to $80MM, tweets The Athletic.

The end result here is not surprising, given the muddled valuation process for a talent like Buxton. When he’s at his best, he’s one of the best players in the game, a five-tool player capable of anchoring a first-division lineup on both sides of the ball from a premium position. The injury concerns, however, have limited his contributions and saddled him with a tricky long-term risk profile.

This season perfectly illustrated the dichotomy of Buxton as a team-building asset. In 27 games, he made 110 trips to the plate and accrued an insane 2.7 fWAR with a .369/.409/.767 line, good for a 217 wRC+. But 27 games of MVP-caliber production from Buxton wasn’t enough to keep the Twins anywhere near contention. They currently have a 0.0% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs.

Buxton went on the injured list with a hip strain from May 7th to June 16th, by which point Minnesota’s shot at the playoffs was already slim to nil. He was back for less than a week before breaking his hand and returning to the injured list. Because he’s still out, there’s very little chance that the Twins might move Buxton now.

Instead, they’ll wait for the offseason and re-evaluate. Even just one season of a healthy Buxton ought to pique the interest of a few teams around the league who might be willing to take a chance on keeping him healthy.

The question now is whether Minnesota’s inability to lock up Buxton long-term will push them to be more aggressive in offloading assets like Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers. Both are under team control through 2022, like Buxton. Both are key cogs in a potential contender in 2022, like Buxton.

With Nelson Cruz already gone and the rest of the present-day roster not looking much like a contender, the Twins may already doubt their chances to battle an increasingly indomitable White Sox team next season.

If Berrios ultimately gets moved in the next week, we’ll know the Twins’ thoughts about next season. If he stays, the Twins may be preparing for one final run with Berrios and Buxton under contract. Either way, it’s looking increasingly likely that Buxton’s long-term future resides somewhere other than Minnesota — where he can tantalize and frustrate a different fanbase.

Taylor Rogers Generating Lots Of Trade Interest

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Unsurprisingly, Twins southpaw Taylor Rogers “is very popular on the trade market,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  There is enough interest that the reliever has a “good chance to be dealt” even though Minnesota is reportedly reluctant to move players who are under team control beyond this season.  Rogers has one more arbitration year remaining before free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.

Rogers has somewhat quietly been one of baseball’s most effective relievers since just about the moment of his MLB debut in 2016, as the left-hander has a 3.15 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, and a 22% K-BB rate over 314 2/3 career innings out of Minnesota’s bullpen.  He has kept up that form in 2021, with a 3.35 ERA and a whopping 35.5% strikeout rate that ranks 11th among all hurlers with at least 40 innings pitched this season.  This is the type of high-level performance that could be the difference-maker in a pennant race, so while the Twins undoubtedly have a huge asking price for Rogers, another team could be willing to take the plunge to upgrade its bullpen for both the rest of this season and into 2022.

  • Alex Bregman will start a Triple-A rehab assignment within the next few days, the Astros star told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters.  A left quad strain sent Bregman to the 10-day injured list on June 17, and though there was initial uncertainty around exactly how long Bregman might be out, the Astros’ series against the Twins on August 5-8 seems to look like the target date.  At the time of his injury, Bregman was hitting .275/.359/.428 with seven home runs over 262 plate appearances.

Latest On Yankees’ Trade Targets

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The Yankees are far from matching the kind of production they’ve set as their historical standard, but manager Aaron Boone’s much-maligned unit isn’t exactly dead in the water: they’re five games over .500 and still a very reasonable 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot. Most teams in their spot would be looking for additions to make a playoff push. The Yankees, of course, have no plans of fading into the background, and they’re surely set to make a splash or two here in the final week before the trade deadline.

Trevor Story and Starling Marte continue to be two of the most talked-about names on the market, and both Story and Marte have been connected to the Yanks in recent weeks. They’ve also checked in on Max Kepler, though the Twins’ asking price is said to be “exorbitant,” per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.

Consider Story or Marte the more likely targets, then, though they’ll face plenty of competition for either player. Both players are, however, likely to move before the deadline. The hangup will be on finding the right match of prospects to send to Colorado and Miami, respectively.

Speculatively speaking, Story would appear the more impactful addition, given how much his glove could improve the Yankees’ defense – and how much he would affect the other pieces of the roster. Sliding Gleyber Torres to second and DJ LeMahieu to first would put all the pieces in the right places, though Luke Voit would be in a position to either move to the bench or push Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield, where the Yankees are hesitant to play him. Still, there aren’t as many teams as it might seem with a hole at shortstop, and some of those teams with obvious needs to upgrade (i.e. the A’s) have been bearish on pursuing one.

Further, ESPN’s David Schoenfield suggests they might be on the lookout for bullpen help. That might be a little offputting to hear at first, as their bullpen ranks third by fWAR this season, but there’s a lot of volume built into that metric. They rank eighth overall with a 3.67 bullpen ERA. The concern, more specifically, is their recent performance. The Yanks’ pen ranks 21st with a 5.19 ERA in July. That’s not necessarily enough to cause full-on panic, but there’s always room for another arm in the bullpen.

 

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