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Poll: The Dodgers’ Rotation

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The Dodgers have long been expected to utilize a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Shohei Ohtani, and have accordingly assembled a deep group of arms. Last week, however, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that, with Ohtani not expected to debut as a pitcher until sometime in May, the Dodgers intend to open the season with a five-man rotation. Four of those spots will go to Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki. That fifth spot appears to be up for grabs, with the two leading candidates being a pair of arms that missed the 2024 season entirely due to injury: right-handers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

The duo have been on very similar tracks for much of their respective careers. Drafted in the third and ninth rounds of the 2016 draft respectively, May and Gonsolin were both top-100 prospects for the Dodgers who made their big league debuts in 2019 and looked good in their brief cups of coffee. May posted a 3.63 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, while Gonsolin posted a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. Both took on larger roles in 2020 and finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year.

It was at the outset of the 2021 season where the pair’s careers begin to diverge. May has routinely been brilliant when healthy, but “when healthy” is a key caveat. May has started just 20 games and thrown 101 innings total over the past four seasons. That’s mostly been due to multiple elbow surgeries, and just when his arm looked to be healthy last summer, he suffered an esophageal tear that required surgery and sidelined him for 2024.

Gonsolin has been healthy long enough to build up a more sustained track record, but that playing time has come with ups and downs. In 2021, the righty posted a strong 3.23 ERA but a 4.54 FIP due in no small part to a bloated 14.2% walk rate. Gonsolin was sensational in 2022, logging a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts (130 1/3 innings) as he cut his walk rate by more than half and struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents faced. The success was short-lived. Gonsolin struggled badly across 20 starts in 2023 before undergoing his own Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2024 season.

May brings excellent rate stats to the table, with a 3.21 ERA (132 ERA+), a 3.59 FIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate over that aforementioned stretch of 2020 starts between surgeries. He’s also just 27 years old. Between that youth and his limited on-field reps to this point in his career, it’s not outlandish to suggest that May could have a higher ceiling than even his strong career numbers suggest. Gonsolin has more experience pitching in big league games. The 31-year-old’s phenomenal 2022 season is also by far the best work either player has put forward in a given season. May has five-plus seasons of MLB service and can’t be optioned without his consent. Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season but for now has one minor league option left.

There are other candidates for the fifth spot, but none come close to matching the experience of May and Gonsolin. Bobby Miller is a former top prospect who delivered a strong 2023 season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski are all healthy and available as depth starters after each debuted in 2024. Of the three, only Knack has substantial big league playing time under his belt. The 27-year-old’s 3.65 ERA in 69 innings last year could make him the next man up behind May and Gonsolin, but he still appears to be further down the depth chart than the two returning righties.

It’s worth reminding that franchise legend Clayton Kershaw is slated to start the season on the 60-day IL. Younger arms like Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are all recovering from Tommy John surgery performed during the 2024 season. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and isn’t likely to pitch this year. Fellow righty Nick Frasso is a well-regarded arm but isn’t likely to be in the Opening Day rotation mix after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery performed last offseason. That length list of arms is a testament to the organization’s depth and also a good reminder that whoever opens the season as the No. 5 starter is hardly a lock to hold a rotation spot all season. The Dodgers will probably cycle through 12-plus starters this season.

Be that as it may, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the Opening Day staff. Assuming everyone remains healthy, how do MLBTR readers think the Dodgers’ fifth starter battle will play out? Will the club go for May’s upside and relative youth? Will they instead turn to Gonsolin’s more substantial MLB track record in hopes he can replicate his All-Star 2022 campaign? Will one of the less-experienced arms break out and claim the role? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Be The Cardinals’ Starting Catcher?

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The Cardinals attempted to kick off a youth movement this winter, letting veteran players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge depart in free agency while attempting to trade other veteran pieces under longer-term team control. Unfortunately for St. Louis, none of those trades came to pass: Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray both declined to waive their no-trade clauses, while Nolan Arenado expressed a willingness to waive his for certain clubs but no deal ultimately came together.

That’s left the club looking very similar to last year, but even with a largely identical roster there remain some areas where the club can stick to its initial plans. Contreras has been a catcher for his entire career, but entered 2025 working out at first base ahead of what’s expected to be a full-time move away from his duties behind the plate this year. With Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first, that opens up the catcher position for a young player to step in and claim the starting catcher job as their own. The Cardinals have two candidates for that role: Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages.

Herrera, 24, has already spent parts of three seasons in the majors after several years as a well-regarded catching prospect. His cups of coffee in the majors during the 2022 and ’23 seasons were limited to just 24 games and 66 plate appearances, but he got a more robust look at the big league level this past year and made the most of the opportunity. In 259 trips to the plate across 72 games last year, Herrera hit a strong .301/.372/.428 (127 wRC+). He showed decent pop and speed with five homers and five stolen bases in roughly a third of a full season’s slate of at-bats and complemented that with a solid understanding of the strike zone, as shown through his 20.5% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate.

A massive .370 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated over a full season, but his solid 8.9% barrel rate and the aforementioned plate discipline numbers suggest Herrera has the bat to be a solid hitter in the majors, and perhaps even well above average for the catcher position. Herrera has been an average to below average defender behind the plate to this point in his MLB career, however, with a lackluster arm that he pairs with average framing and blocking numbers. For a Cardinals club that struggled to make the adjustment from defensive stalwart Yadier Molina to bat-first slugger Contreras behind the plate, it would hardly be a surprise if the club preferred a more robust defender.

Enter Pages. The 26-year-old made his MLB debut with the Cardinals last year and got nearly the same amount of playing time as Herrera did with 68 games and 218 plate appearances. While he was similarly below average to Herrera when it came to throwing out runners in 2024, his pop time to second base was in the 75th percentile of catchers last year according to Statcast, while Herrera’s was in just the 27th percentile. That suggests more room to grow when it comes to controlling the running game, and Pages also rates out as a better pitch framer than Herrera with identical blocking numbers.

Those stronger defensive numbers could make Pages an attractive option as a regular behind the plate to a Cardinals organization that has long appreciated the value of a strong glove, but his offensive numbers could hold him back. Pages pales in comparison to Herrera as a hitter, with a slash line of just .238/.281/.376 (83 wRC+) last season. While Pages showed impressive power with seven homers in just 218 trips to the plate, he also struck out at an elevated 26.6% clip while walking only 6% of the time. That home run total also might be misleading about his overall offensive skill set, as well. Even as Pages managed to send more balls over the fence than Herrera did in fewer plate appearances, his 4.8% barrel rate was dwarfed by Herrera’s aforementioned 8.9% barrel rate, indicating that it was actually Herrera who made the strongest contact more consistently last year.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Cardinals could choose not to commit to either youngster as a true starter behind the plate, instead operating on a timeshare that’s closer to 50-50. Stepping out of the traditional starter-and-backup setup behind the plate could afford both players the opportunity to assert themselves as regulars, allowing performance to more naturally dictate playing time over the course of the season and beyond. That might come at the expense of comfort for the club’s pitchers if who is behind the plate is frequently changing on a day-to-day basis, but one possible solution to that would be to have each catcher work with a certain group of starting pitchers in order to ease their defensive burden from a planning and game-calling perspective while also affording those starters some level of consistency regarding who their battery mate is.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals will approach the catcher position this year? Will they prioritize Herrera’s higher ceiling and better bat, Pages’s stronger defensive reputation, or settle for a timeshare involving both youngsters? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: What Position Will Alex Bregman Play In Boston?

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Over the weekend, the Red Sox formally introduced Alex Bregman as their latest star infield signing after signing him to a three-year deal last week. One notable wrinkle that emerged from Bregman’s introduction is where exactly his future on the infield dirt lies. While previous indications were that Bregman would play second base for the Red Sox if added to the roster, manager Alex Cora made clear that the club has not made a decision on how exactly its infield alignment will shake out when Opening Day arrives next month.

The uncertainty around Bregman’s future position stems primarily from the desire of incumbent third base star Rafael Devers to continue playing the field for the foreseeable future. Devers, still just 28, moving to DH this early into his career would be unusual for even a defensively-limited star player. Miguel Cabrera was still the Tigers’ starting third baseman during his age-30 season back in 2013. Aside from Devers’ personal desire to continue playing third, a move to DH for Devers would seemingly leave little room for Masataka Yoshida in the club’s plans, restricting him either to mostly bench duties, forcing him into the outfield on a regular basis, or pushing him off the roster entirely. From an offensive perspective, Yoshida is likely to be far more valuable to pencil into the lineup card than the relatively uninspiring second base options like Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton that the Red Sox used last year.

With that being said, Bregman is the reigning AL Gold Glove award winner at the hot corner and has just 32 innings of experience at the keystone to this point in his career. Hardware isn’t always the best metric to evaluate a player’s defense by, but the difference between Bregman and Devers is stark when looking at advanced metrics: Bregman sat in the 91st percentile among fielders for his work at third base last year in terms of Outs Above Average, while Devers was in the 8th percentile. Bregman made clear throughout his free agency that he was ready and willing to play second base if it was asked of him, and Red Sox brass have indicated confidence in his ability to play the position. Even so, it’s impossible to deny that the best version of the Red Sox defensively would surely involve Bregman at third base, Devers at DH, and a steady glove like Hamilton (who posted a +3 OAA at the keystone last year) at second.

It can be argued, then, that the decision boils down to a question of offense versus defense. Playing Bregman at second base allows the club to keep Yoshida in the lineup to open the season more easily, though that will cost the club by forcing an less than ideal defensive alignment. Meanwhile, inserting Hamilton and his 92 wRC+ from last season as the Opening Day second baseman and shifting Yoshida to the bench would leave the club with an undeniably weaker offense but would give the club a quality defensive unit with Bregman and Hamilton flanking Trevor Story on the infield dirt. Using this logic, a Boston club that ranked 11th in the majors with a 104 wRC+ last year even before bringing in Bregman but ranked sixth from the bottom in both OAA and Fangraphs’ defense metric might be better off prioritizing run prevention over run creation.

Other factors are at play as well, however. It’s hard to say from an external perspective exactly how the relationship between Devers and the Red Sox would be impacted by the club supplanting him at third base, but all indications are that the club’s incumbent star is adamant about his desire to remain at the hot corner. It’s also fair to note that Yoshida is expected to be available to play the outfield more frequently this year after he underwent shoulder surgery back in October. Once his shoulder has recovered enough for him to play on the grass, the club could theoretically start Jarren Duran in center field and Yoshida in left before benching Yoshida late in games to shift Duran to left field and put glove-first utility man Ceddanne Rafaela in center field for a stronger defensive outfield when the club holds a lead.

Perhaps the biggest variable in this situation, however, is Kristian Campbell. MLB.com’s #7 prospect in the sport had a clear pathway to everyday playing time as soon as Opening Day before Bregman was signed, but reporting since the Bregman deal has indicated that the Red Sox still want to give Campbell the opportunity to earn a spot on the everyday roster. Campbell has primarily played second base to this point in the minors and his presence on the club’s roster, in the event that he makes the team, could spur the Red Sox to pull the trigger on moving Devers to DH.

With that said, Campbell is a versatile defender who has outfield experience as well, making it at least plausible that the club could plug him into the lineup in left field with Duran in center and Rafaela either on the bench or at Triple-A should they wish to play Bregman at second and Devers at third. That would only be a temporary solution, however, as top prospect Roman Anthony is also knocking on the door of the majors and seems likely to be debut at some point in the first half. Anthony is a well-regarded defensive outfielder and figures to take over regular reps at one of the club’s outfield spots upon his debut, which would seemingly push Campbell back to the infield unless the club was willing to bench Wilyer Abreu in right field.

With so many complicated factors at play for the Red Sox this spring, where do MLBTR readers land on the issue? Should the club prioritize its defense and move Devers to DH, opening up the hot corner for Bregman and making it easier to fit their prospects into the lineup? Or would they be better off putting Bregman at second base, avoiding the risk of discontent from Devers and allowing Yoshida to remain a fixture of the club’s lineup more easily? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Cardinals Trade A Starter?

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The Cardinals’ offseason has been defined by their attempts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. The club allowed key players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge to head into free agency this winter and did nothing to replace them as they focused on cutting payroll and starting a youth movement at the major league level. The club seemingly wanted to pair that with trades of some of its most expensive veteran players, but Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras both quickly made it clear that they weren’t interested in waiving their no-trade clauses.

That left Arenado as the most prominent trade candidate on the roster, but the third baseman vetoed a trade to the Astros at the eleventh hour back in December and his market began to dry up rapidly after that. The final nail in the coffin appeared to be the Red Sox, Arenado’s last serious known suitor, signing Alex Bregman to round out their infield mix. Now, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitting it’s likely Arenado remains in St. Louis to start the season, the Cardinals are poised to enter 2025 with the most notable change as compared to last year’s team being a lack of Goldschmidt at first base.

There’s one way the Cardinals could inject some more youth into the roster and create space in the payroll: trading from the rotation. Both Gray and veteran righty Miles Mikolas have no-trade clauses and appear unlikely to waive them, but veteran starters Erick Fedde and Steven Matz are both pending free agents who lack no-trade protection. Both players reportedly received interest from rival clubs earlier this offseason, and while the Cardinals at the time appeared focused on dealing Arenado rather than from the rotation, the unlikelihood of an Arenado trade could change that calculus.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored for Front Office subscribers earlier this week, there are a number of teams around the league that could still use starting pitching help. Fedde in particular could likely bring back an enticing return as a relatively affordable rental starter who posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 31 starts last year. The right-hander will make just $7.5MM in 2025, a sum that virtually any team could afford even during this late stage of the offseason. Matz is less likely to bring back significant talent in return given his up-and-down trajectory over the years, but shedding some of his $12MM salary for 2025 would allow the Cardinals to add a veteran reliever to set up for closer Ryan Helsley or even take on a bit more money to try and facilitate the Arenado deal with a cash-strapped club like the Yankees. (The Cardinals’ reluctance with regard to trading Helsley, also an impending free agent, is another curious decision, as highlighted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco last month.)

In addition to the prospects and/or salary relief trading a veteran starter could net, the Cardinals would also more clearly make way for their young arms to get work at the big league level. Top prospect Tink Hence has yet to make his Triple-A debut but dominated Double-A last year and should be on the big league radar later this year. In the meantime, Michael McGreevy is already knocking on the door of the majors after posting a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings as a starter for the club last year. Sem Robberse, Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby are among the potential starting options the Cardinals have at their disposal that don’t currently have a path to major league starts.

On the other hand, none of those options has proven himself in the majors. With Arenado now seemingly unlikely to move, the Cardinals may feel they’re better off trying to contend this year, at least in the first half when they still have the opportunity to pivot back towards selling at the trade deadline. After all, the Cardinals won 83 games last year despite their flawed roster, and a healthy season from Contreras, better batted ball luck from Gray, and a resurgence from Arenado could allow them to contend in an NL Central division that still looks relatively soft even after teams like the Cubs and Reds have made notable moves.

It’s also worth noting that, even without trading Arenado or a starter, the club has made at least some room for a legitimate youth movement to take place. Kicking Willson Contreras over to first base has opened up the catcher position for youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, while the departures of Gibson and Lance Lynn from the rotation have opened up a spot for Andre Pallante after he impressed in a rotation role last year. Other players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker figure to get more consistent playing time in 2025, and all it takes is an injury or two to get players like Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II more regular playing time in the majors as well.

With Opening Day just six weeks away, how do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals should proceed? Should they double down on their youth movement and deal a starter like Fedde or Matz to salvage their offseason of inaction, or should they hold onto their veteran rotation pieces through the early days of the season in hopes that internal improvements could make them a legitimate contender? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who’s The Best Starting Pitcher Remaining?

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The top remaining free agent starter came off the board last night, when right-hander Nick Pivetta agreed with the Padres on a backloaded four-year deal that includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons. It’s a major shift from last winter, when top-of-the-market lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery both lingered on the market deep into March and ultimately missed the start of the season while making up for lost Spring Training reps in the minor leagues. This winter, almost all of the top free agents have already landed somewhere as teams begin their first official workouts, with just five of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents of the offseason (and zero of the top 20) still unsigned.

Four of the five remaining free agents in our Top 50 are starting pitchers. None of them compare to Snell and Montgomery’s stature as free agents last winter, or even Pivetta’s stature as the last mid-market arm available in this year’s market. Even so, each is a clearly useful arm who would help the majority of pitching staffs around baseball this year if signed. Which one should pitching-hungry teams be most interested in, however? A look at all four, in the order they appear on the Top 50:

Andrew Heaney

Heaney is entering his age-34 campaign in 2025 in a different position than his previous trips through free agency. He signed with the Dodgers prior to the 2022 season as a bounce-back candidate coming off a disastrous 2021 campaign, and after delivering excellent results for L.A. in 72 2/3 innings he signed a fresh deal with the Rangers as a risky but high-upside mid-rotation addition. His performance over two years in Texas didn’t play to that high-risk, high-reward narrative that surrounded his free agency, however, as he performed as a fairly run-of-the-mill back of the rotation arm.

In 307 1/3 innings of work for Texas over the past two years, Heaney pitched to a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His 23.2% strikeout rate during that time is a far cry from not only the incredible 35.5% rate he flashed with the Dodgers, but also 26% clip he struck out opponents at from 2016 to 2021. Heaney has emerged from years of injury questions to serve as a fairly steady source of innings, with his 160 frames in 2024 being the most he’s posted in a season since 2018. There’s some room for upside in the veteran’s profile as well, with gains in walk rate (5.9%) and barrel rate (8.3%) last year suggesting he may be able to improve upon last year’s results.

Jose Quintana

Entering his age-36 season, Quintana has the most impressive resume of the pitchers discussed here. He’s a former All-Star who delivered front-of-the-rotation production at his peak with the White Sox. While those days are long behind him, he’s remained effective into his mid-30s. The southpaw signed with the Mets on the heels of a terrific 2022 with the Pirates and Cardinals where he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 2.99 FIP in 32 starts. The results in New York weren’t quite that good, but he was still capable of delivering solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation production in Queens with a 3.70 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.24 FIP in 246 innings of work.

Those results would be valuable in the No. 4 or 5 spot of most rotations, but a look under the hood reveals a somewhat more worrying profile. Quintana has struck out just 18.8% of opponents in each of the past two campaigns. His typically sharp command waned a bit in 2024, with an 8.8% walk rate that clocked in slightly north of average. That left him with the third-worst K-BB% among 58 qualified starters in the majors last year, ahead of only Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. On the other hand, his 47.4% groundball rate was tenth-best, and only six qualified starters allowed line drives at a lower clip. If he can continue those levels of contact management, it’s easy to imagine him having success in front of a strong defense.

Kyle Gibson

Gibson is the prototypical innings eater, a back-of-the-rotation arm who has posted an ERA below 4.00 just three times in his entire career who makes up for that with volume. Besides his half-season as a rookie back in 2013 and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Gibson has made at least 25 starts with at least 147 1/3 innings of work in every single season of his career. He’s averaged just over 30 starts and approximately 175 innings per season in those years. It’s a level of volume that’s hard to find in the the current era of pitching, and any team with instability in their rotation would stand to benefit from plugging Gibson into the mix.

However, Gibson’s status as one of the league’s more reliable arms comes with very limited upside. In 12 years as a big league pitcher, the right-hander has eclipsed 3.0 fWAR just once. He’s also begun to show some minor signs of decline that can’t be entirely ignored headed into his age-37 campaign; his 9.4% walk rate was elevated relative to his career norms, but more concerning was the 9.2% barrel rate he allowed that was tenth-worst among all qualified starters last year. Last year’s 13 quality starts were also the fewest he’s posted in a full season since 2019.

Spencer Turnbull

Turnbull stands out among this crowd of veterans as the youngest arm, entering his age-32 campaign this year. The righty also has by far the shortest track record of the four arms discussed here, with just 356 2/3 total innings in the majors under his belt across parts of six big league seasons. Once a promising young rotation prospect with the Tigers, Turnbull’s career was turned upside down by injuries. He hasn’t thrown more than 56 2/3 innings in a single season since 2019.

For all his lack of volume, Turnbull was excellent when healthy for the Phillies last year. He struck out 26.1% of opponents en route to a 2.65 ERA in a swing role, and while his 3.85 FIP and 3.67 SIERA are both less impressive they still paint him as a well above-average pitcher when healthy. Of all the pitchers listed here, Turnbull has the largest injury track record, but he’s also perhaps the best on a rate basis and the likeliest to deliver results that could put him in line for meaningful playoff innings.

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While the four pitchers discussed were the ones who made the cut for MLBTR’s Top 50 back in November, other interesting starters also remain available. Lance Lynn has flashed front-of-the-rotation production at points in his career and had a solid 3.84 ERA in 23 starts last year, but has also struggled badly at times and will pitch his age-38 season this year. Jakob Junis has pitched more out of the bullpen than the rotation in recent years but sports a strong 3.35 ERA in the past two seasons and started 17 games for the Giants in 2022. John Means is clearly quite talented but has only pitched 52 innings across the past three seasons due to multiple arm surgeries. He’ll be sidelined into the summer after UCL surgery last June.

Which of free agency’s remaining starters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will The Cubs Extend Kyle Tucker?

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The Cubs have made a number of moves to push in towards a return to the postseason in 2025 after missing the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and not winning a playoff game since the club’s NLCS loss to the Dodgers back in 2017. After decent showings the past two seasons, both of which saw the club finish with 83 wins, the Cubs have gotten more aggressive in their efforts to improve. While the additions of Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea to the rotation mix, Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier to the bullpen, as well as Jon Berti and Carson Kelly to the bench are all more or less par-for-the-course moves for the Cubs in recent years, they made a major splash by swinging a trade with the Astros for Kyle Tucker.

The acquisition cost was steep, as they gave up top third base prospect Cam Smith as well as All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and young right-hander Hayden Wesneski, but the acquisition of Tucker was a major upgrade for the lineup relative to Cody Bellinger and figures to provide the Cubs with an impact star who can anchor their lineup. Tucker’s slated to become a free agent after the 2025 season, however, and while youngsters Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara are waiting in the wings at Triple-A as potential replacements for Tucker in 2026 it would be an incredibly tall order to expect either youngster to become the sort of to player Tucker has fashioned himself into.

With the club having already given up substantial assets to just land one year of Tucker, the minds of many fans immediately go to an extension. It’s far from uncommon for star players traded just before their final year of team control to promptly extend their stay with that new club, with Francisco Lindor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mookie Betts among the most notable star position players to work out long-term extensions shortly after being traded. With that being said, it doesn’t always work out that way as the Yankees found out when they gave up a massive haul for one year of Juan Soto’s services last winter only to watch him depart in free agency back in December.

Soto’s record-shattering $765MM deal won’t be an even remotely realistic target for Tucker, who will crucially head into free agency three years older than this offseason’s star free agent. Even so, that massive contract figures to raise the bar at least somewhat on the price tag for Tucker’s services. After all, both lefty-swinging right fielders are among the most valuable outfielders in the game over the past few years. Tucker’s 19.1 fWAR since the start of the 2021 season trails Soto’s 24.6 figure, but that’s with Tucker having missed half of the 2024 campaign due to a shin injury. Tucker lacks Soto’s generational plate discipline, but the former’s .280/.362/.527 slash line is in at least the same ballpark as Soto’s .279/.423/.520 slash line.

As previously mentioned, Soto’s youth and stronger overall offensive contributions mean his deal will greatly eclipse Tucker’s. Even so, it’s wholly reasonable to think that Tucker could exceed the $330MM guarantee Bryce Harper landed with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season and even Aaron Judge’s $360MM guarantee from the 2022-23 offseason. With major market clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants all poised to have a hole in the outfield next winter, it’s not hard to imagine the bidding for Tucker’s services surpassing $350MM or even reaching $400MM so long as he’s healthy and as productive as expected this year. Signing a player to that sort of deal would be completely unprecedented for the Cubs, who have never signed a player for more than the $184MM deal they gave to Jason Heyward prior to the 2016 season, and it seems unlikely that a Tucker extension would come at much of a discount.

While doubling the franchise’s record contract would be a bold move, its one the Cubs should be able to afford. Despite playing in one of the league’s largest markets, Chicago has tended to treat the first luxury tax threshold as something of a hard cap in recent years. That first threshold will sit at $244MM in 2026, when RosterResource projects the club to have just $136MM in guaranteed contracts on the roster. That’s before likely raises for arbitration-eligible players like Justin Steele and a decision on Shota Imanaga’s deal that seems likely to raise the southpaw’s salary, but there should at least theoretically be plenty of room in the budget for a Tucker extension even after considering those factors should the Cubs wish to work one out.

There’s plenty of reasons to wonder if the Cubs would really have the appetite to sign Tucker to a massive contract, however. As noted by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, the Cubs appear to be acting quite cautiously when it comes to guaranteed contracts that extend beyond the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement in 2026. At the moment, Imanaga and Dansby Swanson are the only two players the club has guaranteed money to beyond the 2026 campaign. Even that ignores the possibility that Imanaga is allowed to opt out of his deal after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, which will depend on whether or not the Cubs are willing to pick up a series of club options that would extend his stay with the club through the end of the 2028 campaign.

One other potential wrinkle in the situation is Chicago’s pursuit of Tucker’s longtime teammate Alex Bregman. The Cubs have emerged as one of Bregman’s suitors over the course of the past month, and while they’re generally viewed as only interested in adding Bregman on a shorter-term deal (as was the case with their pursuit of Bellinger last winter), it’s at least possible that the club signing Bregman to a deal that guarantees upwards of $30MM annually could leave them uninterested in adding another high-dollar contract like the one Tucker figures to command.

What do MLBTR readers think about the situation? Will the Cubs and Tucker work out an extension before he reaches free agency in November? Or will Tucker follow in the footsteps of Soto and hit the open market? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Teams Should Still Sign A Free Agent Starter?

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Spring training is beginning to kick off around the league, and as is perennially the case, there are a handful of notable free agents still looking for homes. That's of particular importance for the group of starting pitchers who still remain unsigned. Over the years, we've typically (not always) seen late-signing hitters struggle less than late-signing pitchers. Starting pitchers, in particular, seem to benefit from a full, gradual ramp-up rather than the sort of accelerated build that inherently comes with a mid-March signing.

Nick Pivetta stands as the most notable starter who's yet to find a landing spot. He's surely been impacted by the qualifying offer that's hanging over his head. Any team other than the incumbent Red Sox would need to forfeit at least one draft pick (possibly two, depending on CBT status) in order to sign the longtime Boston righty. Others still on the market include veteran mid-rotation or back-end starters Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Cal Quantrill, Ross Stripling, Lance Lynn and Patrick Corbin -- just to name some. (A full list can be seen here.)

This time of year, there's plenty of talk about teams that still need to add an arm. That can take different shapes, however. I wrote about the Mets' rotation for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers last week, but the Mets aren't necessarily the type of team that needs to go out and add an innings eater to step into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. They have myriad options there already. Any addition for them, presumably, would be a clear-cut playoff starter. It's a similar situation with the Orioles, Cubs, Blue Jays and many other postseason hopefuls. Other clubs, like the Tigers and Pirates, have a mostly set group with a bevy of interesting young, MLB-ready top prospects knocking on the door. Signing Quintana or Gibson to eat innings likely isn't in the cards for teams in either of these groups.

At this stage of the offseason, some of those available free agents might need to wait for a spring injury or a trade to create the opportunity they seek. But there are still teams around the league that are rather clearly in need of some steady innings in the Nos. 3-5 spots in the rotation. Let's run through some clubs that have the need and, as crucially, the budget (or lack thereof) to add an established veteran arm to the back of the staff.

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Poll: Do The Braves Need Another Starter?

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The Braves struggled through a difficult season on offense last year amid another lost season for superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. and a number of down seasons all around the lineup. The club still managed to win 89 games and make it to the postseason on the back of its excellent rotation, however. Headed into 2025, that rotation has lost two key pieces: southpaw Max Fried and right-hander Charlie Morton.

Both departing pitchers had down seasons relative to their career norms last year, with Fried’s 3.25 ERA being a bit of a step back from his ace-level production of previous years while Morton clocked in right around league average. Even so, both were key pieces of the club’s rotation last year from a volume perspective. The pair combined for 59 starts and 339 2/3 innings in 2024, and they joined Chris Sale as the only three pitchers in the Atlanta rotation last year to throw even 140 innings.

That led to plenty of speculation early in the offseason that the club would be in the market for starting pitching help, with at least a back-of-the-rotation veteran to help eat innings widely expected to be a priority. That didn’t end up coming to fruition, however, despite a reported pursuit of Jeff Hoffman as a potential convert to the rotation that ultimately fell apart due to concern over Hoffman’s medicals. With Spring Training just over the horizon, the Braves have yet to make any sort of additions to their pitching staff with outfielder Jurickson Profar being the club’s only major free agent signing of the winter.

Even after losing one of the better pitchers in the sport in Fried, the club still has one of the highest-ceiling rotations in the majors. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sale leads the group coming off a season where he won the NL Triple Crown award and got his career back onto a potential Hall of Fame track after struggling to stay healthy with the Red Sox in recent years. He eventually figures to pair at the top of the club’s rotation with hard-throwing righty Spencer Strider, who missed almost all of last season due to internal brace surgery but struck out an incredible 36.8% of opponents in 2023 en route to a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting. Reynaldo Lopez is the club’s number three starter on paper after posting a 1.99 ERA in 26 appearances (25 starts) last year in his first season as a full-time starter since 2020. Spencer Schwellenbach delivered solid mid-rotation production in 21 starts as a rookie last year with a 3.35 ERA in 123 2/3 innings of work.

It’s a front four that’s hard to argue with from a talent perspective, but it’s difficult to ignore the many health question marks at play here. Sale was nothing short of elite last year but combined for just 151 innings of work in the four years prior to 2024 and ended the season unable to pitch in Atlanta’s postseason run due to back issues. Strider, of course, is coming off elbow surgery and is not even expected to be ready for the start of the season. Lopez had previously last topped 66 innings back in 2019, while Schwellenbach pitched in relief during his college days and had never made more than 16 starts or thrown more than 65 innings in a season prior to last year, leaving questions about whether or not either can handle a full slate of 30+ starts in 2025.

All of that makes an innings-eating veteran addition seem like an option, to say nothing of how valuable a more reliable mid-rotation arm like Nick Pivetta could be for the club. Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Spencer Turnbull, and Kyle Gibson are among a number of noteworthy starting pitching options still available in free agency, while the trade market holds options such as Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery who could be had for minimal return outside of salary relief. Pivetta and Gibson in particular would immediately become the most reliable source of innings on Atlanta’s entire staff if signed, but any of them would raise the floor of a volatile rotation group.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the club is deep in potential starting options beyond their top four, despite none of those players being proven at the big league level at this point. Grant Holmes, 29 next month, was excellent for the Braves in a swing role last year as a rookie. Ian Anderson was one of the club’s best arms during their 2021 World Series run and won’t turn 27 until May, though he didn’t pitch in the majors in either of the last two seasons. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep are both entering their age-22 and -23 campaigns respectively and have pedigree as former top-100 prospects who could easily break out with more reps at the big league level, Bryce Elder was an All-Star in 2023 despite a rough 2024 season, and even more depth is available in the form of Dylan Dodd and Davis Daniel.

That’s a list of potential fifth starter options that’s seven names deep, including two players with successful seasons as wire-to-wire MLB starting pitchers under their belts, a player who produced in a limited rotation look last year, and two well-regarded young arms who have been ranked among the organization’s best prospects in recent years. Most clubs would love to have that sort of depth in competition for the final spot in their rotation, but given the history of health issues and lack of reliable innings that permeate the rest of Atlanta’s rotation, even that deep cache of arms might not be enough to let the Braves keep up with the Phillies and Mets in a highly competitive NL East division.

There’s also the financial component to consider. RosterResource puts the club’s competitive balance tax number a bit above $230MM, just over $10MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. While they have some willingness to pay the tax again this year, they may not consider the available arms enough of an upgrade over their internal options to justify going beyond the line right now.

What do MLBTR readers think? Does Atlanta have enough internal pitching options to make it through the season, or at least until trade season resumes over the summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Where Will Nick Pivetta Sign?

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Nick Pivetta is the top unsigned starting pitcher. He’s one of two remaining free agents, alongside Alex Bregman, who received a qualifying offer in early November. (Pete Alonso has also yet to officially sign his two-year agreement to return to the Mets.) Pivetta was a slightly surprising QO recipient, but the move paid off for the Red Sox when the righty declined the offer.

That ensures that the Sox will get a compensatory draft choice between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the third round — likely 77th overall. Pivetta initially looked like he’d be a beneficiary of the robust starting pitching market that was present early in the offseason. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote around the time of the QO decisions that Pivetta would receive interest on at least a three-year deal.

It wasn’t an unreasonable expectation. Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino each got three years and upwards of $60MM. The Royals signed Michael Wacha to a three-year, $51MM extension on the eve of free agency. Manaea and Severino had declined qualifying offers, while Wacha would have gotten one as well had they not agreed to the multi-year deal. Pivetta could have pursued something similar to the three-year, $67MM guarantee that Severino pulled from the A’s.

The 31-year-old Pivetta (32 later this week) was an innings eater in the middle of the Boston rotation for the past few seasons. He struggled early in the 2023 campaign and was briefly demoted to the bullpen, but he excelled late in the year to earn his way back to the starting five. He took the ball 27 times last season, working to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings. Pivetta missed some time early in the year with a flexor strain. That was the first non-virus injured list stint of his MLB career, though, and he returned without issue by the middle of May.

Pivetta has never posted a sub-4.00 ERA season. His run prevention has landed in the low 4.00s in consecutive years, and he carries a 4.09 mark in 288 1/3 frames since the start of 2023. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk rates have always been more intriguing than the ERA might suggest. He has punched out 30% of opponents with a solid 7.3% walk percentage over the past two seasons. The swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by Pivetta’s longstanding issue keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed a higher than average home run rate in all seven seasons of his MLB career.

There’s value in the durability and solid run prevention marks that Pivetta has provided the Red Sox. His camp presumably marketed him as an upside play based on the swing-and-miss stuff. A move out of the AL East and/or to a pitcher-friendly home park could position him for a step forward as a strong #3 starter.

It’s unclear whether the market has ever materialized to the extent that he envisioned when he declined the QO. There haven’t been a ton of publicly reported ties. The Canada native was linked to the Blue Jays before they signed Max Scherzer; Toronto GM Ross Atkins said last week that any additional rotation acquisitions were likely to be pure depth adds.

Pivetta was one of a number of rotation candidates tied to the Mets at the Winter Meetings. They’ve since re-signed Manaea and had already brought in Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to slot into the rotation. They arguably still need a finishing piece, but they should probably aim for a legitimate #1 starter on the trade market. The Reds were the only other team firmly tied to Pivetta this offseason. Cincinnati has since seemingly pushed their payroll near ownership’s ceiling. President of baseball operations Nick Krall downplayed the likelihood of any more moves of note a couple weeks back.

It’s hard to envision Pivetta securing a Severino-type deal at this stage. Many teams have pushed their budgets as far as they’re willing to go. Players who sign early tend to fare better than those who linger into late January and potentially into Spring Training. This offseason has been no exception. Alonso and Jack Flaherty have each turned to short-term deals after starting out with much loftier asks. The QO also remains an impediment. Teams would still need to relinquish draft capital and potentially 2026 international pool money (depending on their luxury tax status) to add Pivetta. That’s not the case for the other unsigned starters (e.g. Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney).

Which club is most likely to swoop in late to add Pivetta? Weigh in below.

 

The Athletics’ Rotation Options

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The A’s entered the offseason with virtually no certainty in their rotation. Despite a host of trades aimed at acquiring pitching help throughout the course of their most recent rebuild, lefty JP Sears was the only prospect acquired who’s stepped up, stayed healthy, and pitched well enough to lock down a rotation job. Sears has hardly been an ace, but 64 starts and 353 innings of 4.46 ERA ball over the past two seasons will play. He’s not an exciting arm, necessarily, but Sears looks like a volume-based fourth starter with good command who’ll average 5 2/3 innings per outing and keep his club in the game more often than not. He’s a starting point.

In the months that have unfolded since, the Sacramento-bound A’s have made a pair of meaningful additions. Luis Severino signed a three-year, $67MM contract and immediately became the team’s top rotation arm upon doing so. Left-hander Jeffrey Springs came over from the Rays not long after, in a trade sending righty Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Jacob Watters and Will Simpson, and a competitive balance draft pick back to the Rays. There’s injury risk with both players — Severino averaged 42 innings per year from 2019-23; Springs missed most of 2024 recovering from UCL surgery — but both are quality arms when healthy. Springs, in particular, quietly turned in ace-caliber results in Tampa Bay from 2021-24.

That pair of additions gives the A’s a set top-three in the rotation, albeit somewhat by default at the moment. General manager David Forst has said he’s open to further additions and is hopeful of adding another starter. That comment came just over a month ago, however, and nothing has come to fruition (nor have there been any real rumblings connecting the A’s to available pitchers).

The A’s very much should add to this group if they’re intent on playing the role of a surprise contender, as many of their offseason dealings suggest. There are still several solid veteran arms available, both via free agency and trade. As things stand, it seems likelier by the day that they stick with what they have in-house. Let’s run through the options.

The Rule 5 Favorite

Mitch Spence, RHP: Spence might not have turned many heads with last year’s performance, but there aren’t too many Rule 5 picks who even make it through a whole season — let alone put themselves into legitimate competition for a rotation job the following year. Spence has done just that. The 26-year-old (27 in May) opened the 2024 season in a long relief role but pushed his way into rotation consideration with a nice start. He wound up making 24 starts and 11 long relief outings, working a total of 151 1/3 innings. Spence turned in a 4.58 ERA with a below-average 19.4% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.8% and 48.4%, respectively.

Unlike many rookie pitchers, Spence didn’t fade down the stretch; he got stronger. That’s surely due in part to the fact that he tossed a hearty 163 innings of Triple-A ball in 2023 prior to being taken by the A’s in the Rule 5. But Spence came out strong in the second half of the 2024 season, looking like a pitcher who’d found his footing. From July 20 through Sept. 17, Spence made 11 starts with a 3.66 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates didn’t make any huge gains, but he was throwing more sinkers and curveballs and getting far more grounders (and yielding fewer homers) as a result. He allowed nine runs in his final nine innings — a sour ending note — but Spence in many ways looked like a right-handed version of Spears.

What’s left of the Rebuild Arms

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The A’s moved Cusick to the bullpen last year and watched him rattle off a 1.73 ERA and 31-to-4 K/BB ratio over his final 26 innings of the season. He’s likely bullpen-bound again, both due to that success and his struggles in the rotation. He’s unlikely to factor into the starting mix this year, but based on his past usage, we’ll include him in case they reverse course. Cusick had a 4.95 ERA, 20.9% strikeout rate and dismal 15.2% walk rate in 100 innings as a starter in 2023.

Joey Estes, RHP: Estes held a rotation spot the vast majority of the 2024 season, making 24 big league starts in addition to one relief appearance. The results weren’t great, though. The former Braves draftee (acquired alongside Cusick, Shea Langeliers and Cristian Pache for Matt Olson) logged a 5.01 ERA with below-average velocity and subpar strikeout, ground-ball and home run rates. Homers have been a problem for Estes even in the minors, but he’s limited walks nicely and at the very least proven himself to be a pretty durable arm. He still has two minor league options remaining.

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn was the more notable of the two prospects the Mets sent to Oakland for Chris Bassitt a few years back. The former second-rounder posted a 4.24 ERA in 34 innings during last year’s MLB debut but has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in all three of his minor league seasons with the A’s. Ginn averaged what these days is a pedestrian 92.9 mph on his sinker and did log a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate while displaying solid command. Even with the trio of rough minor league seasons an lackluster debut, Baseball America ranks him 11th in the A’s system and calls him a potential back-end starter with a high floor but limited ceiling.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Yet to make his big league debut, Hoglund was the headline prospect in the trade sending Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. He only has five starts above the Double-A level, coming late last year, and they didn’t go that well. His Double-A work was outstanding, however. The former first-rounder pitched 104 2/3 innings with a 2.84 earned run average, 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 40% grounder rate and 1.03 HR/9. His stock is down quite a ways since he was the No. 19 overall pick, and he’s unlikely to be in the mix for an Opening Day job — but he could make his debut sometime this summer.

Others on the 40-Man Roster

Brady Basso, LHP: The Athletics’ 16th-round pick in 2019, Basso signed for $75K and has never landed inside the team’s top-20 prospects at Baseball America. They rank him 25th this year after he debuted in 2024 and pitched 22 1/3 innings with a 4.03 ERA, sub-par strikeout numbers, strong command and an average ground-ball rate. Basso dominated Double-A opponents last year before being hit hard in Triple-A and posting middle-of-the-road numbers in a brief MLB debut. Basso, who averaged 92.2 mph on his fastball this past season, still has two minor league option years remaining.

Osvaldo Bido, RHP: Bido made his big league debut as a 27-year-old with the 2023 Pirates and was cut loose after logging a 5.86 ERA in 50 2/3 innings. The A’s signed him to a major league contract last winter, and in 63 1/3 frames he logged a 3.41 ERA with an above-average 24.3% strikeout rate but a rough-looking 10% walk rate. Bido misses bats and induces chases at lower rates than his raw strikeout percentage would suggest. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 10 Triple-A outings last year. He could be a swingman or a fifth starter and has a minor league option remaining.

Jacob Lopez, LHP: Acquired alongside Springs in the Athletics’ trade with the Rays, Lopez will turn 27 in March. He’s a soft-tossing lefty a low arm slot who relies more on deception than on power stuff. Righties have hit him better than lefties but haven’t exactly torched him (.218/.319/.391 in 2024; .197/.316/.343 in 2023). Baseball America ranked him 28th among Rays prospects last year and likened him to a Ryan Yarbrough type of bulk pitcher (behind an opener) or multi-inning reliever.

Hogan Harris, LHP: The A’s took Harris with the No. 85 pick back in 2018. He’s pitched in three Triple-A seasons and posted an ERA north of 6.00 in each. He made his big league debut in 2023 and was similarly rocked for a 7.14 ERA in 63 innings. Ouch. Las year, however, Harris found his most success since he posted a sub-2.00 ERA between High-A and Double-A back in 2022. The 6’3″, 230-pound southpaw posted a terrific 2.86 ERA in 21 big league appearances — nine of them starts — totaling 72 1/3 frames. His 20% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 37.3% grounder rate were all worse than average. Harris thrived in part due to some good fortune on home runs (8.5% HR/FB) and a 78.9% strand rate he’s not likely to sustain.

Down-the-Road Considerations

Mason Barnett, acquired from the Royals as part of last summer’s Lucas Erceg swap, was outstanding in Double-A post-trade and has become one of the system’s top arms. He could debut this summer but isn’t likely to break camp on the club. Jack Perkins, the Athletics’ 2022 fifth-rounder, hasn’t advanced beyond Double-A but posted a sub-3.00 ERA there last year. He’s a fastball/slider-heavy right-hander with shaky command, evidenced by a huge 32% strikeout rate but 11% walk rate last year.

Left-hander Ken Waldichuk and righty Luis Medina are both technically on the 40-man roster, but not for long. They both had Tommy John surgery midseason — Waldichuk in May, Medina in August — and will be on the 60-day IL when the A’s need roster spots. Waldichuk could make it back late this season. That’s unlikely for Medina.

—

It’s not necessarily a bad collection of depth arms, and names like Barnett, Hoglund, Ginn and Perkins create varying levels of legitimate MLB rotation upside. However, the Athletics’ current contingent of big league arms carries plenty of injury risk, most notably in Severino and Springs, who both recently had notable arm troubles. One injury in the top three, and the group looks increasingly questionable. Between that and the fact that a number of the 40-man options profile best as fifth starters, it’s understandable that the A’s are open to adding some veteran stability and arguable that they should be aggressively seeking it.

The free agent market still has Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana, Spencer Turnbull, Cal Quantrill and — if the A’s can stomach surrendering another draft pick — Nick Pivetta. The trade market includes Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery Taijuan Walker and (to a lesser extent) Steven Matz as salary dump candidates. Chris Paddack could perhaps be had for a modest return.

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