The Marlins’ Catching Conundrum
Miami has struggled to find a viable option behind the plate since trading away J.T. Realmuto ahead of the 2019 season. After Jorge Alfaro, who returned in the Realmuto deal, failed to provide consistent results, the Marlins have shuffled through a mix of veterans and fringe MLBers over the past few seasons. Miami backstops finished 29th in OPS at the position in both 2023 and 2024.
Agustin Ramirez seems like the answer, at least on offense. Acquired in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade, the top prospect popped 21 homers and stole 16 bases in his first taste of MLB action. Ramirez paced the team in doubles and total bases. He was a fixture in the heart of the lineup since getting promoted in late April.
The problem with Ramirez as Miami’s solution at catcher was the catching part. He led the league with 19 passed balls, more than twice as many as the next-closest player (Shea Langeliers at nine). Ramirez also led all catchers with 10 errors, despite only making 71 starts at the position. The throwing aspect of the job didn’t go much better. Ramirez allowed 83 steals and threw out just 8 base runners, good for a paltry 8.8% caught stealing rate. He ranked dead last in Statcast’s CS Above Average metric, which compares the number of extra caught stealings to the expectation of an average catcher.
Ramirez made 61 starts at DH in his rookie season. While that may be his ultimate home, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix hasn’t given up on Ramirez in the field. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Bendix said Ramirez still has “the ability to be a major league catcher and also needs to improve a lot to be able to consistently achieve that level” (link via Kevin Barral of Fish on First). It isn’t the strongest endorsement, but it’s enough to keep the door ajar on Ramirez’s future at the position.
Liam Hicks functioned as Miami’s backup catcher for the majority of the 2025 season. He started 49 games behind the plate, while also making 23 starts at first base and 20 at DH. Hicks joined the team as a Rule 5 selection from Detroit. He posted a solid 98 wRC+ across 390 plate appearances, though the power was lacking. Hicks hit just a half dozen home runs and finished with a .099 ISO. He doesn’t have the type of thump typically associated with 1B/DH types, so sticking at catcher might be his only avenue to consistent playing time.
The main issue with Hicks as a long-term option is the same one that plagues Ramirez. Hicks allowed 51 stolen bases last season, while catching just six would-be thieves. He had the fifth-worst mark in Statcast’s CS Above Average metric.
The real answer at catcher might be waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Joe Mack is the organization’s fourth-ranked prospect according to MLB.com. FanGraphs ranked Mack third among Miami prospects in their midseason update. Mack was a first-round pick in 2021. He’s put up strong offensive numbers at each minor league stop, including a 129 wRC+ in 112 games at Double-A in 2024. Mack torched Double-A pitching once again to begin 2025 and was quickly bumped to Triple-A. He hit 18 home runs with a solid .250/.320/.459 slash line in 412 plate appearances with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. The 22-year-old has an elite arm, which will provide some much-needed help in slowing down the run game. Mack has a shot to break camp with the team in 2026 after hitting .298/.382/.766 with six homers in 14 games in September.
Whether or not Mack is with the big-league club next season, the team could use a glove-first veteran option. Victor Caratini, Austin Hedges, and James McCann would be viable options that shouldn’t be overly expensive. Old friend Jacob Stallings could also be a candidate to soak up innings behind the plate for a low investment. Ironically, Nick Fortes would’ve fit the bill as a veteran caddy to Mack. Fortes led the Marlins in starts behind the plate in 2023 and 2024, but was shipped out at the trade deadline this past season.
Poll: Who Will Win The Wild Card Series?
The 2025 regular season is in the books, and the baseball world is now gearing up for what might be a wild postseason. It took until Game 162 to finalize the full slate of playoff teams and matchups, but now we know the eight clubs who will take part in the wild card round that begins on Tuesday, as “October baseball” gets started a bit early this year on September 30. All WCS matchups are best-of-three, and will take place entirely in the home ballpark of the higher-seeded team.
The Guardians will meet the Tigers again after Cleveland posted a 5-1 record against Detroit over a pair of series in the last two weeks, contributing to the AL Central’s epic shakeup. The Tigers held a 9.5-game lead in the division before going 3-13 over their last 16 games to barely eke out a wild card slot. The Guards, meanwhile, went 19-4 over their final 23 games to overtake Detroit and claim Cleveland’s third division title in the last four years.
After all of that, the two clubs find themselves facing off in the postseason for the second straight year. The Guardians needed the full five games to oust Detroit in the 2024 AL Division Series, as last season the Tigers were the team surging into the playoffs after a late-season hot streak. All of the momentum is on the Guardians’ side at this point, and even though the Tigers will have Tarik Skubal going in Game 1, Cleveland’s pitching has been on such a roll that the Guards have the overall pitching advantage. The Guardians held an 8-5 record against the Tigers in regular-season play this year.
One of baseball’s greatest rivalries will be renewed again in October when the Yankees host the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Blue Jays to fall just short of the AL East crown, despite an eight-game winning streak to finish the regular season. New York’s rotation and homer-heavy offense seem to be clicking at the right time, yet the Sox had seemingly had the Yankees’ number this year, with a 9-4 record in head-to-head play.
After falling short to the Dodgers in last year’s World Series, the Yankees are eager to return the Fall Classic and finally win the first championship of the Aaron Judge era. Boston hasn’t quite been the same since Roman Anthony was lost to an oblique injury in early September and the rookie star’s status remains unclear for postseason action. However, the Red Sox have a well-rounded roster and an ace of their own in Garrett Crochet, plus the organization is hungry for postseason success in their first playoff trip since 2021.
The Cubs have also just ended a mini-drought in reaching October for the first time since the shortened 2020 season, as Chicago stepped up to win 92 games after posting 83-79 records in both 2023 and 2024. They’ll now host the Padres in the first postseason meeting between the two clubs since 1984, when San Diego fought back from a 2-0 series deficit to win a best-of-five NLCS and deny Chicago a trip to the World Series. Forty-one years later, it’s the Padres who might feel slightly more cursed at the moment, since the club has yet to advance beyond the NLCS in their three previous playoff trips in the last six seasons.
There’s plenty of pressure on the Friars to finally reach the pinnacle of this era of success, though Chicago is hoping for more than just a playoff appearance after its win-now trade for Kyle Tucker last winter. After starting 38-22, the Cubs have been more okay than elite (54-48) over the better part of the last four months. The series’ Wrigleyville locale could be impactful, as the Padres were only 38-43 on the road this season.
The Dodgers host the Reds in a matchup of two teams with very different recent postseason histories. Los Angeles has won 12 of the last 13 NL West titles, and is looking to become baseball’s first repeat World Series champ since the 1998-2000 Yankees pulled off the three-peat. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is in the playoffs for just the fifth time in the last 30 years, and the Reds haven’t won a playoff series since all the way back in 1995 — when they beat the Dodgers in the NLDS.
Winning “only” 93 games counts as a relative disappointment by the Dodgers’ standards, and the club will need to navigate an extra playoff round. This puts more pressure on the beleaguered L.A. bullpen, and Will Smith‘s participation is a question mark due to a hairline fracture in his right hand. The rotation is on a roll, however, and naturally there’s a lot of built-in playoff experience for the reigning champs. The young Reds gained some seasoning in beating out the Mets for a wild card berth, and of course manager Terry Francona is no stranger to October. Cincinnati’s rotation and bullpen will need to continue their excellent form to counter Shohei Ohtani and company, and the wild card series would be a great time for the inconsistent Reds lineup to get on track.
Which four teams do you think will reach the Division Series? Vote now in our polls:
Who wins, Tigers or Guardians?
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Cleveland 64% (8,004)
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Detroit 36% (4,529)
Total votes: 12,533
Who wins, Red Sox or Yankees?
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New York 56% (6,595)
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Boston 44% (5,081)
Total votes: 11,676
Who wins, Padres or Cubs?
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San Diego 50% (5,407)
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Chicago 50% (5,334)
Total votes: 10,741
Who wins, Reds or Dodgers?
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Los Angeles 72% (7,764)
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Cincinnati 28% (3,012)
Total votes: 10,776
Offseason Outlook: Athletics
An awful May ensured the A's were headed for another losing season. They made arguably the biggest sell-side trade at the deadline, sending Mason Miller to San Diego for a prospect package headlined by potential franchise shortstop Leo De Vries. The A's have quietly been one of the best teams in the American League for the final two months of the season. They're in for a second straight offseason focused primarily on pitching. It's not an easy task while they're in a Triple-A home ballpark that plays as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Lawrence Butler, CF: $62.25MM through 2031 (including $2MM in yet to be paid signing bonuses and buyout of '32 club option)
- Brent Rooker, DH: $48MM through 2029 (deal includes '30 club/vesting option)
- Luis Severino, RHP: $47MM through 2027 (including $5MM signing bonus to be paid in January; can opt out after '26)
- Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $11.25MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
2026 financial commitments: $45.75MM
Total future commitments: $168.5MM
Option Decisions
- None
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Austin Wynns (5.107): $1.8MM
- Shea Langeliers (3.051): $5.1MM
- JJ Bleday (3.029): $2.2MM
- Ken Waldichuk (2.150): $900K
- Luis Medina (2.146): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Wynns, Waldichuk
Free Agents
For the second straight year, the A's go into the offseason with positive momentum despite finishing with a losing record. They've been a better second half team in both 2024 and '25. That alone probably doesn't hold a ton of predictive value, but it's fair to have more optimism next spring than it was last offseason.
It appears ownership is satisfied with the direction of the rebuild. The A's extended manager Mark Kotsay last offseason on a deal that runs at least through 2028. General manager David Forst is reportedly on an expiring deal. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that he's in talks with owner John Fisher about his future. Rosenthal suggests he could agree to at least a two-year extension that runs up to the team's expected opening of its Las Vegas ballpark.
They're on track to go into Vegas with a very good offense. Nick Kurtz has shredded major league pitching. Jacob Wilson is coming off the first of what should be multiple All-Star appearances at shortstop. Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom have taken steps forward offensively. Soderstrom also showed he's capable of playing better defense than expected in left field after being forced off first base by Kurtz's arrival. Even as Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler took steps back after fantastic 2024 seasons, this lineup runs six deep. The 18-year-old De Vries is a dynamic talent at the top of the farm system who has a good shot to pair with Wilson as an elite middle infield tandem down the line.
The A's don't have the same kind of young corps anchoring the pitching staff. Neither the Luis Severino signing nor the Jeffrey Springs trade stabilized the rotation as hoped (though Severino has been quite good down the stretch). Both pitchers have managed back-of-the-rotation results overall without missing a ton of bats. Neither has fared well at the A's temporary home park in Sacramento.
Severino blasted the arrangement when speaking with Brendan Kuty of The Athletic in June. Asked about his stark home/road splits, the righty said his road numbers were better "because we play in a big-league stadium on the road." He added that pitching in Sacramento is "not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun."
The criticism was bizarre considering the A's went beyond general expectations to sign Severino to a three-year, $67MM contract last offseason. That price presumably baked in a cost for pitching in a minor league facility on a team without a true home city. Unsurprisingly, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggested that Severino's comments were not well-received by A's brass. The team would've welcomed a chance to trade him at the deadline. Between the contract and Severino's lack of swing-and-miss stuff both at home and away, they were unable to find a taker.
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Poll: Will The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller This Winter?
This trade season, a number of controllable players were heavily rumored to be on the market who ultimately did not end up getting traded at all. Among that group, one of the most surprising players who wound up staying put with their current club was Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs were all connected to Keller over the summer, and at one point a proper fire sale seemed to be on the table for Pittsburgh.
A deal didn’t come to pass with any of those clubs, however. Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and even pending free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew Heaney were still in Pittsburgh come August 1. On some level, that seems to reflect the front office’s belief in the team as a potential short-term competitor, even in spite of its major flaws. GM Ben Cherington told reporters just recently that he believes the team can contend in 2026, so it stands to reason that a player like Oneil Cruz might not be on the market at this point, even if there were reasons to believe a team could’ve pried him away a few months ago.
That doesn’t necessarily mean room to make trades goes out the window, however. In that same conversation with reporters, Cherington acknowledged that upgrading the offense on the trade market was on the table for the Pirates heading into this winter. While Pittsburgh has one of the richest farm systems in the majors from which they could deal if so inclined, an organization that regularly runs some of the lowest payrolls in MLB may not want to part with packages rich with prospect capital to acquire just one or two hitters. That could make trading for the MLB roster an attractive alternative, and when looking at the players already in the majors it’s not hard to see why Keller in particular could be a piece it would make sense for Pittsburgh to part with.
While the right-hander looked quite good in the first half of the 2025 season, his numbers began to falter after the All-Star break. In his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 5.87 ERA and 5.21 FIP across 53 2/3 innings of work. Brutal as those numbers may be, when zooming out to look at his full-season stats, one sees that this tough stretch really only brought him back to what he’s established as his career norm at this point. For three seasons in a row now, Keller has made between 31 and 32 starts with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.25 with a FIP between 3.80 and 4.10. That’s remarkably consistent for a starting pitcher in today’s game. And while that works out to roughly league average production, average results with that volume and consistency are still valuable.
Valuable as Keller might be in theory, he’s not exactly a fit for the Pirates’ needs in practice. Paul Skenes offers plenty of consistency at the front of Pittsburgh’s rotation with much more impressive production. And while Keller is the only other established arm in the club’s starting five, a bevy of intriguing young arms like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft appear poised to step into larger roles as soon as next year. With so many young players who have mid-rotation upside or better in the upper levels of the farm system starting to get their feet wet in the majors, perhaps sinking nearly $17MM in salary next year into a player who provides only average results doesn’t make much sense for a team that RosterResource suggests will finish 2025 with a payroll of less than $87MM.
That’s not to say he wouldn’t be valuable to other clubs, however. Keller’s contract is arguably slightly below market rate for a pitcher with his impressive consistency. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon received a four-year, $68MM contract from the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason after two seasons as a Yankee with similar results to Keller’s recent work. And Yusei Kikuchi‘s roughly league average work with the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Astros over the years earned him nearly $64MM over three years with the Angels just last offseason. By that metric, the just over $55MM Keller is owed over the next three seasons looks like something of a bargain for a large- or even mid-market club in need of rotation help, or it’s at least roughly market rate.
If the Pirates are able to work out a trade for a young, controllable hitter involving Keller and then reinvest Keller’s salary into position player talent, they could significantly retool their lineup by dealing the right-hander away. Of course, that course of action would risk the possibility that Keller puts it all together in the future and delivers a full season like his first half (3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP) at some point after the trade, at which point the Pirates would have likely sold low on the righty. Keller won’t turn 30 until April of next year, so a step forward isn’t impossible to imagine even in spite of his year-to-year consistency. Trading Keller would also be a big gamble on the team’s young rotation talent, of whom only Skenes has proven himself truly reliable at this point. Perhaps that could be eased by signing another low-cost veteran like Heaney to offer some stability, but that would eat into the budget for improving the club’s offense.
How would MLBTR readers approach Keller this offseason, if they were in the Pirates’ shoes? Would they aggressively shop him for offense, or would they hold onto him for 2026 unless overwhelmed by an offer? Have your say in the poll below:
Should the Pirates trade Mitch Keller this winter?
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Yes, trade him for help on offense and get his salary off the books. 73% (1,862)
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No, hold onto him unless overwhelmed by an offer from another team. 27% (682)
Total votes: 2,544
Poll: Jack Flaherty’s Player Option
Entering the 2024-25 offseason, Jack Flaherty was viewed by many as one of the most attractive starting pitchers on the market. He was coming off a brilliant season (3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers) and had just won a World Series ring, but the things that truly made Flaherty look like an attractive signing relative to the rest of the crowd were ancillary factors. He wasn’t attached to draft pick compensation via the Qualifying Offer, he was younger than most free agent starters as he hit the market ahead of his age-29 season, and he wasn’t projected for the sort of megadeal that top arms with longer track records like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes were expected to get.
Many fans were dreaming on the idea of bringing Flaherty in as an arm with ace-level potential who could fit their team’s budget, but those hopes and projections did not account for just how concerned rival clubs would be about Flaherty’s health status. The Yankees pulled out of a trade that would’ve allowed them to acquire the righty from the Tigers at last year’s deadline due to concerns about his medical records. Perhaps those concerns seeped into Flaherty’s free agent market, as a winter that was generally favorable to starting pitchers saw the right-hander forced to settle for a short-term deal rather than land the nine-figure deal many expected him to get entering the winter.
After returning to the Tigers on a two-year, $35MM guarantee once his market dried up, Flaherty turned in a somewhat middling performance this year. While he started out strong with similar numbers to last year through his first six starts, the right-hander went on to struggle badly in both May and June, and entered the month of July with a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Those numbers painted Flaherty as barely a league average starter. When he escalated his player option for the 2026 season from $10MM up to $20MM, it seemed like maybe he would simply exercise that option and hope for better luck next season on a healthy salary.
His performance in the second half has complicated things somewhat. In 14 starts since the beginning of July, Flaherty has a 4.35 ERA that remains pedestrian at best. A closer look at his numbers in the second half reveals a lot of reason for optimism, however. With a .344 BABIP allowed and a strand rate of just 69.5%, it’s clear that the right-hander has had some real misfortune when it comes to batted ball and sequencing luck, both things that are generally out of a pitcher’s control. In terms of the things Flaherty does have the most control over, he’s actually excelled. He’s struck out 26.5% of his opponents, good for 13th among qualified starters in that time frame, with a 7.8% walk rate. His 18.8% K-BB rate is in the top 20.
When looking at ERA estimators under those same parameters, Flaherty’s 3.67 SIERA ranks 18th and only five starters have outperformed his 3.04 FIP: Paul Skenes, Trevor Rogers, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby. Impressive as that company is, the fact that Flaherty has remained healthy this year may be even more important given those previous questions about his medicals. He’s made 30 starts this year for the first time since 2019, and just the second time of his career. His next start against the Guardians on Wednesday will most likely see him surpass last year’s innings pitched total as well.
Flaherty’s excellent second half peripherals and encouraging health this year might make opting out seem like an obvious choice for the right-hander, but the inescapable reality of his situation is that his actual run prevention this year simply hasn’t been very good. The right-hander sports a 4.60 ERA headed into what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, and that figure ranks just 40th among 51 qualified starters in the big leagues this year. Landing the sort of nine-figure deal Flaherty was hoping to get last offseason off the back of a platform season like that doesn’t seem terribly realistic.
Even with a top-dollar free agent deal likely out of reach, though, there’s still a real argument for exercising the opt out. After all, Flaherty seems all but certain to beat that $20MM guarantee if he opts out. It was just last offseason that Walker Buehler landed a guarantee in excess of $20MM on the heels of a 2024 season where he pitched to a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts coming off Tommy John surgery, while pitchers like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton who offered very little certainty were able to secure $15MM salaries on one-year deals. If this year’s market ends up being anything like last season, Flaherty should have little trouble beating his option price tag in terms of total guarantee with a strong chance to beat that salary outright.
While the Tigers could extend him the Qualifying Offer in the event that he decides to opt out if they were so inclined, that would still be the case next year as well. What’s more, simply accepting the QO would actually constitute a small raise for Flaherty relative to his option salary, as it’s projected to land around $22MM this offseason. If Detroit opted not to extend the QO to him, on the other hand, he’d once again be an attractive, high-potential arm unencumbered by draft pick compensation. In a free agent market where virtually every starter comes with real question marks, it’s not hard to imagine a team overlooking Flaherty’s lackluster results this year to make a healthy multi-year offer, or at least offer him a more lucrative pillow contract than the one he’d be opting out of.
How do MLBTR readers think Flaherty should approach his option decision this November? Should he stick with the Tigers in hopes that he puts it all together in 2026 with a truly ace-caliber season, or should he test the open market and look for the safety of a larger immediate guarantee? Have your say in the poll below:
Should Jack Flaherty Exercise His Player Option For 2026?
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Yes, he should stay with Detroit next year. 62% (2,489)
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No, he should test the open market this winter. 38% (1,533)
Total votes: 4,022
The Changing Landscape Of The Offseason Shortstop Market
For much of the 2025 season, it's looked as though Bo Bichette will be the only notable shortstop in free agency -- and it's been plenty fair to debate whether he's a shortstop at all. The 27-year-old has bounced back -- and then some -- at the plate, largely quieting concerns about his anemic performance with the bat in an injury-ruined 2024 season that saw him slash just .225/.277/.322 with four homers in 81 games. But whatever good will Bichette has regained with a resurgent performance in the batter's box has at least partially been offset by a career-worst year with the glove -- and now yet another lower-half injury.
Elsewhere in free agency, what once looked like an otherwise-barren class has now begun to show some potential upside. Narratives surrounding several potential free agents have begun to shift -- enough that it bears taking a lengthier look at what the winter might bring.
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Poll: Can The Guardians Push Their Way Into The Postseason?
A lot has changed in the AL Wild Card scene in the two weeks since MLBTR’s last poll about the race. At the time, there were three clubs within two games of catching the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot, and aside from an outside chance of Houston losing the AL West the rest of the playoff field looked more or less set.
Now, the Mariners have surged ahead of the pack to run down the Astros in the West, while the Red Sox have slumped badly to the point where their ticket getting punched is no longer a foregone conclusion. The Rays (nine games back of a Wild Card spot), Royals (seven games back) and even the Rangers (4.5 games back) are all extreme long shots, meaning that if anyone is going to shake up the AL playoff field, it will be a team that wasn’t even included in our poll from two weeks ago: the Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 games, and the 80-71 Guards now sit 2.5 games back of Boston for the final Wild Card spot. Starters Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, and Joey Cantillo have all been excellent since the All-Star break, while Kyle Manzardo and Jose Ramirez have carried the offense. The fabled bullpen that pushed Cleveland into the postseason last year has shown up again this season (even without Emmanuel Clase), and that unit has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the Guardians with the lowest FIP and second-lowest ERA in baseball since the start of August.
What makes the Guardians most interesting as a possible late entrant into the postseason picture, however, is that they actually control their own destiny in the AL Central as well. The division has looked more or less locked up for the Tigers all year long, but a 5-9 record so far in September alongside Cleveland’s surge has left them vulnerable with four games (including one today) left on the schedule between the two clubs.
With two avenues to a playoff spot on the table, the Guardians are arguably the most interesting team to watch over the final few days of the regular season. The playoff odds at FanGraphs are skeptical, giving Cleveland a 16.4% chance to make the postseason this year entering play today. That’s actually the best odds of any team not currently in playoff position, but it still highlights the tough road the Guardians will have to hoe if they’re going to play in October.
That said, Cleveland does have one thing in its favor: the schedule. The Guardians benefit from four games against the lowly Twins, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball since their massive sell-off at the trade deadline. Cleveland also has a remaining series against an injury-ravaged Rangers team to wrap up the 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Red Sox actually face each other in the final series of the regular season. If the Guardians can just remain in spitting distance of both teams until then, they’ll have an opportunity to make up a game or two in the standings over that final weekend.
What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Guardians be able to pull it off and shake up the playoff field? Or will they be left on the outside looking in this October? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Guardians Be In The Playoffs This Year?
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No 56% (1,468)
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Yes 45% (1,182)
Total votes: 2,615
Sandy Alcantara Is Finding His Old Form
The Marlins were expected to trade Sandy Alcantara at the deadline. The former Cy Young winner had returned from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 season. The hope was that he'd immediately recapture his ace form, demonstrate that over his first 18-20 starts, and be the prize of the summer rotation market.
Alcantara's return didn't go anywhere near that smoothly. His velocity was back, but he struggled to throw strikes or miss bats. He allowed over eight earned runs per nine innings in April and May. He showed flashes in June and July but remained up-and-down. Miami's deadline calculus became whether to sell low on their longtime ace -- a move that would've been more about cutting his $17MM salaries through 2026 than netting a huge prospect return. Given the organizational history, no one would've been surprised if they'd gone that route.
They instead decided to hold Alcantara and were only modest sellers overall. Miami dealt third catcher Nick Fortes to Tampa Bay and flipped platoon outfielder Jesús Sánchez to Houston for a three-player package. In addition to Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Kyle Stowers, Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher all stayed.
Miami was willing to cover what remained of Alcantara's 2025 salary to take a couple more months to get him on track. That has paid off. The 30-year-old righty has looked more like his old self. He's showing better control than he did in April and May. The improved efficiency has allowed him to work deeper into games. His stuff has gotten sharper as the season has progressed. That'll all be very encouraging as the Marlins field new trade offers in the offseason.
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Poll: Luis Robert Jr.’s Option
While they won’t be breaking the major league record for losses this year like they did in 2024, it’s been another tough year for the White Sox. They’ve lost 95 games and could lose 100 games for the third year in a row. Emerging young players like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery have made this season a little easier for fans on the south side of Chicago to stomach, but there’s still little reason to expect the team to contend in 2026.
One of the most important offseason decisions for the White Sox has been whether to exercise a $20MM option on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. or pay him a $2MM buyout, though it seems they’ve generally already made up their mind. As soon as the Sox opted not to trade him at the deadline, it seemed likely Robert would be back in 2026 as opposed to bought out for no return. General manager Chris Getz has suggested as much on multiple occasions, and just this morning he told reporters that he expects Robert to be a part of the club next season (link via Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times). The question, then, is less about what they will do and whether or not they’re right to do it.
With Robert all but confirmed to be done for the 2025 campaign due to a hamstring strain, his numbers appear locked in. After slashing .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) with 14 homers in 100 games last year, Robert produced a nearly identical .223/.297/.364 line (82 wRC+) and slugged 14 homers in 110 games in 2025. Between that apparent lack of progress and Robert’s continued injury woes, it might seem difficult to understand why the White Sox would stick with him rather than simply viewing him as a sunk cost.
Despite his eerily similar (and disappointing) numbers, however, digging a little deeper into Robert’s 2025 numbers actually reveals reason for optimism. He stole ten more bases this year than last, going 33-for-41 as opposed to 2024’s 23-for-29. Robert’s defense is also showing signs of a rebound, as he jumped from a Fielding Run Value of 0 in 2024 to a +7 figure this year, good for top 10 among center fielders in baseball this year.
More encouraging than either of those changes are the differences in his approach at the plate. While Robert’s overall slash line doesn’t look terribly different, he cut his strikeout rate from 33.2% in ’24 to a more manageable 26% in ’25. His 9.8% walk rate isn’t just an improvement over last year’s 6.6% mark — it’s a new career-high. Robert also did his best work this summer, rebounding from a slow start to hit .274/.335/.458 with nine homers, a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate over his final 198 plate appearances. That was 17% better than average, per wRC+.
As shown by Statcast, Robert’s bat speed dropped in 2024, but he’s rebounded to elite levels in 2025, ranking in the 92nd percentile of big leaguers. That could suggest there’s still some untapped power upside, but even if his days of crushing baseballs on a 30 to 40 homer pace are behind him, the combination of improved discipline, baserunning, and defense leave him in a solid position to be a three-to-four win player in the future if he can just stay healthy — though that is a colossal “if.”
It’s arguable that it’s worth an $18MM roll of the dice, particularly considering the fact that Cody Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason after back-to-back down seasons with the Dodgers. Like Robert, Bellinger was coming off injury-marred seasons where he didn’t look like himself at the plate but had shown some signs of improvement in his final year in Los Angeles. Bellinger, of course, rewarded the north siders for their gamble with an All-Star campaign in 2023 and has posted a 123 wRC+ with 10.9 fWAR over the past three seasons.
On the other hand, locking Robert in for another year comes with glaringly obvious risk. With the White Sox unlikely to contend in 2026, on-field production will only benefit the team if it can then be converted into trade capital. The White Sox have had a lot of difficulty getting what they perceive to be fair value for Robert over the years, and even if he has a big first half in 2026, teams might be scared away by his uncertain history.
Furthermore, Robert’s 110 games played in 2025 are actually the second-most of his entire career. He’s never played even 150 games in a season. One first-half injury could leave Robert with little trade value next year, and force the White Sox into another situation a lot like the one they find themselves in this year as they stare down another $20MM option for the 2027 campaign.
What do MLBTR readers think the White Sox should be doing about Robert? Should they pick up his option and bet on better days in the future, or would they be better off sending him on his way and using that $18MM in savings elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below:
Is Picking Up Luis Robert Jr.'s Option For 2026 A Good Idea?
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No, they should've traded him for whatever they could get in July. 60% (1,783)
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Yes, they were right to keep him and hope for better health and better trade value. 41% (1,215)
Total votes: 2,994
Poll: Can The Diamondbacks Push Their Way Into The Playoffs?
It wasn’t even two weeks ago when MLBTR did a poll regarding whether or not anything could shake up the seemingly-stagnant NL playoff picture. At the time, more than 64% of respondents believed that the sextet of clubs in postseason position (Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres, and Mets) would be the ones to ultimately represent the senior circuit in October. The playoff odds over at FanGraphs were even more bullish on that group, as New York’s 95.2% chance to make the postseason was the lowest out of those six clubs.
A lot has changed since then regarding the perception of the NL’s playoff field. While five of the aforementioned six teams are still all but guaranteed to play in October, the Mets have entered a freefall. While a win on Sunday snapped their losing streak at eight games, they’re still 4-9 in September and 15-26 since the start of August (though they’re beating up on the Padres tonight). That extended slump has opened the door for the hangers-on in the NL playoff field to take advantage and, while the Reds and Giants have mostly spun their wheels with 75-75 records headed into the final two weeks of the season, one team has taken full advantage to force themselves back into the conversation: the Arizona Diamondbacks, who weren’t even a listed option for the postseason in that aforementioned early September poll.
With an 8-5 record in September and 25-17 since the start of August, Arizona’s been almost the inverse of the Mets over the past six weeks. Despite selling off everyone from Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor to Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller at the deadline, they’ve fought their way back over .500 and now sit just 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot with 11 games to go after last night’s win over the Giants. It’s very impressive for the team to have rebounded this well over the past few weeks, and a lot of things needed to go the right way for that to happen.
Since the start of August, Zac Gallen (2.68 ERA), Ryne Nelson (3.61 ERA), and Eduardo Rodriguez (3.63 ERA) have all looked like quality starters, while Nabil Crismatt has broken out to deliver 30 innings of 2.70 ERA ball in the rotation since making his season debut on August 17. The offense, meanwhile, has gotten sensational performances out of not just superstars like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, but also lower profile talents like Geraldo Perdomo (174 wRC+ in 192 plate appearances) and Gabriel Moreno (166 wRC+ in 74 plate appearances). Even rookie Blaze Alexander (124 wRC+ in 170 plate appearances) has done a great job letting fans in Arizona forget about the loss of Suarez.
As monumental as the team’s efforts to force their way into the postseason have been, they still face a very uphill climb even as they sit just a game and a half back. The schedule has done them absolutely no favors. After this series against the Giants, they’ll run a gauntlet of Phillies, Dodgers, and Padres to close out the season. Perhaps the series in Philadelphia won’t be as difficult as it might look on paper if the Phils ease off the gas after clinching the NL East last night, but L.A. and San Diego remain locked in a close battle for the NL West and surely won’t make it easy for their division rivals in the desert to finish this attempt at a comeback.
All of that leaves Arizona with just a 7.7% chance to make the postseason entering play today, according to FanGraphs. Those are long odds, and while they’ll surely improve at least somewhat if the Diamondbacks can put the Giants to bed in this ongoing series, even a sweep isn’t especially likely to move the needle unless the Mets help them out by doing a lot of losing in the coming days. Even then, the Giants and Reds both lurk just half a game behind the Snakes. A series loss to the Giants would likely spell the end of Arizona’s hopes then and there, and a schedule that affords Cincinnati five more games against the struggling Cardinals and Pirates should keep them competitive even if Arizona can dispatch San Francisco.
Unlikely as it may seem on paper, however, an eight-game September losing streak in Queens and the Diamondbacks winning at a .595 clip after trading off their best players didn’t seem terribly likely either. Could Arizona really finish the job and return to the postseason this year? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Diamondbacks Make The Playoffs?
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No 66% (811)
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Yes 34% (410)
Total votes: 1,221
Here’s a backup link for poll in case the first one isn’t showing up