What Kind Of Contract Can Framber Valdez Command?
We're a little over two months from the opening of free agency. Framber Valdez has probably established himself as the #1 pitcher. That's in part due to Dylan Cease's inconsistency and Michael King missing almost three months to a nerve-related shoulder injury. It's also a testimony to Valdez's consistency and incredible run of durability. It's not common for the top pitcher in a free agent year to be one entering his age-32 season. That should be the case this winter.
How does Valdez stack up against the top starting pitchers in previous free agent classes? MLBTR's Contract Tracker, available to Front Office subscribers, allows for direct comparisons. That makes it possible to project what kind of deal his camp should seek as he approaches the biggest payday of his career.
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Poll: The Rangers And The Waiver Wire
The Rangers decided to add at this year’s trade deadline and acquired several arms to beef up the pitching staff. Merrill Kelly was the headliner, but the team also swung deals for Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton in an effort to make up for somewhat lacking production from the club’s offense. That strategy, unfortunately, hasn’t worked. The Rangers’ position in the standings hasn’t changed much as they’ve remained stuck around .500, as has been the case for most of the year.
With the start of September just a few days away, a Rangers club that has been on the cusp between contending and retooling all season is now faced with one final point of decision-making: Should they stay the course and hope for a white hot September that pushes them into the postseason? Or should they throw in the towel and try to sneak back under the luxury tax after the club’s deadline trades pushed their projected payroll slightly over the edge?
They have the opportunity to do the latter if they put Kelly, Coulombe, Maton, and other veterans on expiring deals through waivers. If those players get claimed, they’ll move on to the claiming team and the Rangers will be off the hook for the final month of their salary. Aside from those players who were added at the trade deadline, other expiring deals like those of Chris Martin, Patrick Corbin, Shawn Armstrong and Hoby Milner could make sense for the team to make available. Even Adolis Garcia, who remains under club control via arbitration for the 2026 season, could make sense to make available on waivers given his status as a potential non-tender candidate.
Doing so might give the team additional financial flexibility for the offseason as they look ahead to 2026. Ownership preferred to remain under the tax threshold and reset its penalty levels this past offseason. Their deadline push was made with the team’s postseason odds around 40-50%. Those odds have plummeted, with FanGraphs giving them a 7.2% chance and PECOTA pegging them at 9.8%.
Texas would avoid paying roughly one-sixth of the full season salary for any player who gets claimed off waivers. That means parting ways with Kelly (who is making $7MM this year) would save the club around $1.2MM. Cheaper players like Maton ($2MM) would only shave a little over $300K off the team payroll if claimed.
Of course, saving that money doesn’t do much for the club if it isn’t enough to put them under the luxury tax, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to shed enough money to do so. The team saw with Jon Gray earlier this month that there’s no guarantee a player will be plucked off waivers just because he’s been placed there.
The Rangers’ next most expensive pending free agent is Tyler Mahle, and he’s only just resumed throwing off the mound as he tries to work his way back from a rotator cuff strain. It’s hard to imagine a team placing what’d be a roughly $2.75MM bet that Mahle would not only be able to make it back by season’s end but also return to his prior levels of efficacy. It’s a similar situation with Martin, who has been out since late July with a calf strain and still isn’t on a rehab assignment (though he’d amount to a less costly $916K gamble).
Looking beyond the financial aspect of Texas’s decision, it’s worth considering the club’s position in the standings. The 67-67 Rangers have gone just 10-14 since the trade deadline and have lost 12 of their last 20 games. They’ll need a winning percentage a lot better than .400 in September if they’re going to have any hope of making the postseason. Still, a playoff berth isn’t entirely out of the question. Texas is currently 4.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, which is held by the Mariners. They’re six games back of the Yankees in the second AL Wild Card spot as well as the Astros for the AL West title. They still play Houston six times and also have three-game sets with the Brewers and Mets. Their other 16 games are against teams with losing records.
Those six games against the Astros in September give the Rangers more control over their destiny than most clubs have by this point on the calendar. Perhaps that’s reason enough to stay the course. After all, it would be disappointing for the organization if a rare healthy season from Jacob deGrom went to waste.
On the other hand, the club’s core of players is facing some health challenges. Evan Carter, Marcus Semien and Nathan Eovaldi have all been shelved with what are very likely season-ending injuries in recent days. The loss of Martin in the bullpen has also been a real blow, and it’s unclear if he’ll make it back to the field before the end of the season.
How do MLBTR readers think the Rangers should handle their situation? Should they place a handful of short-term veterans on waivers to try to duck under the tax line and save money for another run in 2026, or would it be best to keep the team together and try to win this year despite dwindling playoff odds and mounting injury concerns? Have your say in the poll below:
Should the Rangers put expiring contracts on waivers?
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Yes, waive expiring contracts and try to save money for 2026. 71% (1,540)
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No, keep the team together and try to win this year. 29% (618)
Total votes: 2,158
Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In
Back in June, MLBTR conducted a pair of polls checking the temperature on the two MVP races, and both polls saw the league’s reigning MVP earn a dominating majority. Aaron Judge pulled in 55% of the vote in the American League poll, while Shohei Ohtani did even better as he commanded 57% of the vote in the National League’s poll. Since then, Ohtani has broken away from the pack in the NL as he’s more fully resumed two-way duties. While other players like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Pete Crow-Armstrong have put together excellent seasons of their own in the NL, it’s hard to see that race as anything other than Ohtani’s to lose headed into the final month of the season.
By contrast, the AL MVP race has tightened considerably over the past two months. A big part of that is the fact that Judge hasn’t looked like his usual superhuman self lately. The 33-year-old is still slashing an absurd .323/.439/.667 (193 wRC+), a figure that leads the majors by a substantial margin. However, Judge’s numbers have come down quite a bit in the past two months. Since the day our last AL MVP poll was published, Judge has hit “just” .240/.385/.540 with 12 homers and a 26% strikeout rate in 192 trips to the plate.
That lack of volume is thanks to a flexor strain in Judge’s elbow that sent him to the injured list for a minimum stint a few weeks ago, and his .210/.380/.403 slash line since returning from the injured list only underscores that he’s not playing at full strength. He’s also been relegated to a DH-only role for the month of August and has no timetable for his return to the outfield, though he’s already begun making throws to the infield in pregame workouts.
Of course, Judge looking mortal for a month or so wouldn’t be terribly noteworthy without someone mounting a substantial challenge for his league’s MVP award. Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is doing exactly that. Raleigh’s phenomenal season has earned him plenty of attention all year, but he’s only garnered more attention as an MVP candidate in the weeks since Judge’s injury. Interestingly, Raleigh’s offensive numbers have slumped a bit right alongside Judge. While he was slashing .278/.383/.665 at the time of our last AL MVP poll, he’s hit a less robust .204/.311/.498 in 235 plate appearances since then. That includes a .202/.302/.524 slash line in August that isn’t all that far ahead of Judge’s numbers.
Even with the pair both cooling at the plate, Raleigh has still been playing catcher regularly and hasn’t missed time on the IL like Judge has. Raleigh, who secured just 37% of the vote in our last poll, now has eight more games played and 31 more plate appearances than Judge. It’s a small gap, but in a close race, an increased defensive workload and slight lead in terms of overall volume could be key differentiators.
There’s also the factor of history to be considered. Judge managed to surpass Ohtani in the 2022 AL MVP race in part because he set the AL home run record that season. Raleigh would need to hit 13 homers before the end of the season in order to take the title of AL home run king away from Judge, but his prodigious power has already secured him one piece of history that Judge has no hope of taking away: last night, he became the first catcher in MLB history to slug 50 homers in a season. All of that comes together to make Raleigh a legitimate contender for the award alongside Judge, and the fact that the pair are tied at the top of the MLB leaderboard with 7.3 fWAR a piece only further speaks to the viability of both candidates.
Few players in the AL have a realistic shot of challenging these two titans, but one player who could make an interesting case for himself with a strong September would be Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who finished second for the award behind Judge last year. Witt only received token consideration for the award in our last poll, garnering just 2.3% of the vote two months ago. Since then, however, he’s outperformed both Judge and Raleigh with a .313/.370/.524 slash line, a 13-for-14 record on the bases, and defense at shortstop that should make him a lock for his second consecutive Gold Glove award at the position. Witt’s 6.5 fWAR and 130 wRC+ both substantially trail Judge and Raleigh at this point, but if those two continue trending downward while Witt continues trending up, it’s at least possible that we could be in for a three-horse race.
Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately win this year’s AL MVP award? Will Judge hold onto the title for the second year in a row? Will Raleigh’s historic season behind the plate be enough? Could Witt’s second-half surge be enough to overcome both of them? Have your say in the poll below:
Who Will Win The AL MVP Award?
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Cal Raleigh 71% (4,878)
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Aaron Judge 23% (1,555)
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Bobby Witt Jr. 4% (243)
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Someone Else 2% (153)
Total votes: 6,829
Poll: Is Geographic Realignment A Good Idea?
Commissioner Rob Manfred created quite a bit of buzz around the baseball world last week when he made comments on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball last weekend that suggested the league’s desired expansion to 32 teams could be coupled with a dramatic realignment of MLB’s current structure.
“I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically realign,” Manfred said on the broadcast. “I think we could save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel. And I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN, because you’d be playing out of the east and out of the west.”
The possibility of MLB following in the footsteps of other American sports, like the NBA and NFL, by adopting an eastern/western conference layout as opposed to the current AL vs NL structure is certainly an interesting one. Fans of teams on the east coast and even in the midwest have long bemoaned the late night games associated with west coast road trips, and Manfred’s suggestion that a geographic realignment could lessen the burden of travel on players throughout baseball’s marathon schedule is difficult to argue with. Fans have little reason to care about the desirability of postseason games for broadcasters like ESPN and FOX, but both Manfred’s comments and simple common sense would indicate that possibility will be highly appealing to the league, as well.
Of course, the downsides to a potential geographic realignment are obvious. Baseball is a sport steeped in history, and the loss of the AL/NL structure would necessarily complicate our view of that history. Had the league moved away from the AL/NL structure previously, would Aaron Judge’s chase for 62 home runs in 2022 have been nearly as noteworthy? Without a division between the two leagues, Judge would simply be seventh on the single-season home run leaderboard, rather than the AL record holder. And that’s before considering the possibility of lost rivalries. There’s several ways that MLB could look to realign geographically, but many proposals (including one from Mike Axisa of CBA Sports) would split up historic rivalries like Cubs/Cardinals and Dodgers/Giants. That would be a tough pill to swallow for those teams, who view their longtime rivalries as a key part of their team’s culture and history.
On the other hand, the distinction between baseball’s two leagues has been eroding for years now. The NL has adopted the designated hitter rule, the All Star game no longer determines home field advantage in the World Series, and the schedule has been altered so that every team plays every other team in at least one series per season regardless of league. That amount of inter-league play would guarantee that even rivalries split by this geographic realignment, like the Cubs and Cardinals in Axisa’s proposal, would still play each other on occasion. It’s also worth noting that many interleague rivalries, such as Mets/Yankees and Cubs/White Sox, would benefit from more games on the schedule each year if they were to be pushed into the same conference by geographic realignment.
Realignment on some level is inevitable, as with 32 teams it would be impossible to create six even divisions. Still, that doesn’t mean the AL/NL structure must be lost entirely. Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic was among those to propose a realignment structure that would preserve the status quo for the most part, with only a handful of changes to the current structure as both leagues would move from three divisions of five teams to four divisions of four teams. Under Nesbitt’s plan, the Rockies and Rays would swap to the AL and NL respectively, but all other teams would remain in their current league and no historic rivals would be divided. Of course, maintaining what fans appreciate about the current structure would also mean maintaining many of its frustrations; late night games for fans on the east coast whenever their club takes a road trip out west, and a more much more extreme travel schedule for the players.
How do MLBTR readers feel about the possibility of geographic realignment coming to the majors? Would changing the league’s current structure so drastically detract from the sport’s history for little benefit, or with the leagues already more similar than ever is a major shakeup worth if it improves travel- and timezone-related experience for fans and players alike? Have your say in the poll below:
Should The League Pursue Geographic Realignment Alongside Expansion?
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No, preserve the AL/NL structure and abandon geographic realignment. 63% (8,923)
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Yes, abandon the AL/NL structure in favor of East/West conferences. 37% (5,201)
Total votes: 14,124
Which Other Players Could End Up On Waivers This Month?
The second half of August brings an uptick in waiver placements. Beyond the trade deadline, waivers are the only real option for player movement from one team to another. A few teams that were fringe contenders at the end of July know now that they're almost certainly going to miss the postseason. Placing veterans with semi-notable salaries on waivers gives them a chance to dump the final few weeks of a contract. Other teams aren't going to claim a terrible contract, but there's sometimes a balance where the player's salary is solid value but isn't of much use to a team that is going to miss the playoffs anyway.
This can take on added importance for teams that are right up against the luxury tax. The Angels kicked this practice into gear two years ago, offloading Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore to slide narrowly below the CBT threshold. That at least allowed them to recoup a better draft pick when Shohei Ohtani walked in free agency. It's not only about tax avoidance, though. A lot of teams would welcome the opportunity just to cut a few hundred thousand dollars off the books in a losing season.
Within the past week, Rangers righty Jon Gray has already gone unclaimed on waivers. He was subsequently placed on the injured list due to thoracic outlet syndrome and will probably remain on the IL for the rest of the season. Marlins starter Cal Quantrill hit waivers within the past day or two; it's to be seen whether another team will pick up the approximate $734K that he's owed through season's end. Waiver placements that are not preceded by a DFA aren't publicly announced by teams. They're often leaked to reporters, but it's entirely possible there have already been a few notable names who have cleared or are on waivers that haven't gotten out.
The late-August timing isn't coincidental. Players must be in an organization by the start of September to be eligible for postseason play. Teams can still go the waiver route in September, but other clubs are less likely to place a claim next month because those players cannot help in the playoffs. Waiting until the end of August gives the current team as much time as possible to see where they're at in the standings. It also reduces the cost to a potential claiming team to around four weeks of salary, perhaps making someone more likely to place a claim at the end of the month than they would have been a few weeks ago (when the remaining salary would be around twice as high).
It's worth reiterating that the teams placing the player on waivers are hoping another team makes a claim. Sending a veteran through unclaimed has little to no benefit. Most of them have the five-plus service years to refuse a minor league assignment, so teams usually proceed as if nothing happened if the player goes unclaimed. They could place them back on waivers in a week or two to see if another club is more willing to bite because of the lower remaining salary and/or intervening injuries.
Which players could find themselves on waivers within the next 10 days? There's a clear team with which to start -- a club that bought at the deadline but has been in a free fall ever since while they sit right against the luxury line.
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Poll: How Will Kyle Tucker Finish 2025?
Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a massive extension with the Blue Jays back in April, Kyle Tucker has been viewed as the consensus top player in this winter’s free agent class. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s a four-time All-Star, a former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award winner, and the fifth-place finisher in AL MVP voting in 2023. That resume is what convinced the Cubs to trade All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith, and young starter Hayden Wesneski to the Astros last winter in order to acquire Tucker in his final year of club control.
It’s a decision that paid off in a big way during the first half of the season. Through the end of June, Tucker slashed an phenomenal .291/.395/.537 across 83 games. Among qualified hitters, only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, and Will Smith had a higher wRC+ than Tucker’s 158 during that stretch. While it wasn’t quite on par with the otherworldly 179 wRC+ Tucker posted in 78 games with the Astros last year, it was still an undeniably dominant showing that led to many wondering if he would join Guerrero and Juan Soto in clearing the $500MM benchmark upon hitting free agency this winter.
Once the calendar flipped to July, however, things changed for Tucker in a hurry. In 163 plate appearances since the start of July, Tucker has hit just .189/.325/.235 with a wRC+ of just 72. He’s tallied just four extra-base hits in that time and has gone a full month without hitting a home run at this point after launching his last long ball on July 19. Tucker’s slump has been lengthy enough and severe enough that club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) yesterday that he plans to give Tucker “some days off” in hopes of helping him reset and get back on track.
That the Cubs are sitting a player who looked like a legitimate MVP candidate just over a month ago is inherently shocking, but it’s hard not to see why given his recent performance. It’s fair to wonder how Tucker’s deep struggles of late may have impacted his market in free agency, as well. After all, a major calling card for Tucker has been his consistency and reliability as a middle-of-the-order force. An extended slump such as this one puts a hole in that narrative, especially when combined with him missing half of last season due to injury.
When looking at other outfielders who signed mega deals in free agency, Tucker’s resume doesn’t quite measure up. He no longer seems likely to wind up with an absurd platform season like Judge (nine years, $360MM) put together in 2022, and he’s three years older than Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM) was when he reached free agency. The inflation top-level MLB contracts have seen in recent years should help Tucker, especially as compared to Harper’s contract from all the way back in the 2018-19 offseason, but if his season doesn’t turn around going forward he may not even crack the $400MM threshold in free agency, much less $500MM.
So, will Tucker be able to turn things around? There’s certainly some reasons for optimism. Most notably, his discipline at the plate has remained elite even during his slump. Since July 1, Tucker has actually walked (16.0%) more often than he’s struck out (15.3%). His .224 BABIP during that period suggests some positive regression could be on the way in terms of batted ball luck, but even underlying metrics like hard-hit rate (27.9%) and barrel rate (2.7%) suggest he’s earned his lack of power production. There’s been speculation in some circles that a finger injury suffered when sliding into second base could be the cause of his power outage, but that’s a somewhat dubious claim between Tucker himself suggesting his finger has not caused him problems at the plate and the fact that he had a 14.7% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate in 24 June games following his return from the injury.
It would be a shock if Tucker truly batted below the Mendoza line with virtually no power the rest of the way this year. He’s been a bottom 20 player in baseball since July 1 in terms of wRC+, and it’s practically unheard of for a player of his caliber to perform that poorly for that long when not dealing with some sort of physical issue or age-related decline. With that said, it’s worth noting that Tucker’s recent slump has actually put his 2025 numbers more or less in line with his career norms. Tucker is hitting .261/.374/.447 with a 131 wRC+ overall this year. Through the end of the 2023 season, Tucker was a career .272/.345/.507 (132 wRC+) hitter.
Those slash lines are awfully similar, and it stands to reason that it’s at least possible Tucker’s incredible 78-game 2024 campaign was simply an outlier. On the other hand, it must also be noted that Tucker put together 709 plate appearances between the start of the 2024 season and the end of June 2025 where he hit a combined .290/.401/.559 with a wRC+ of 168. Only Judge (218), Ohtani (179), and Soto (171) posted better numbers during that time frame. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Tucker is able to recapture some of that production over the season’s final six weeks and ends up with a strong platform year, even if it doesn’t quite reach the heights that looked possible two months ago.
What do MLBTR readers think is in store for Tucker over the final weeks of the 2025 campaign? Will he be able to turn things around and quell any doubts created by his recent struggles? Will his slump continue and push his season numbers lower than they are now? Or will his numbers settle in as he levels off somewhere close to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:
How will Kyle Tucker finish the 2025 season?
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Tucker won't completely turn things around, but will enjoy enough positive regression to match his career norms. 59% (2,689)
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Tucker's slump will continue, and he'll finish with the worst full season of his career. 25% (1,136)
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Tucker will turn things around and put up numbers similar to his first half production. 16% (712)
Total votes: 4,537
Vesting Options Update: Giolito, Polanco, Strahm
The upcoming free agent class doesn’t feature a ton of players whose contracts contain vesting options. Marcus Stroman’s deal with the Yankees would’ve contained an $18MM player option had he reached 140 innings, but an early-season knee injury made that impossible. The Yanks released him earlier this month anyhow.
While Stroman’s option was a non-factor, a trio of players are closing in on their own vesting provisions.
- Lucas Giolito, Red Sox RHP ($14MM club option converts to $19MM mutual option at 140 innings; $1.5MM buyout in either case)
Giolito is up to 106 2/3 innings across 19 starts. He needs another 33 1/3 frames to convert next season’s $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. That’d allow him to decline his end and retest free agency as he heads into his age-31 campaign. He’d very likely do so and could command a three-plus year contract.
The righty’s season numbers aren’t exceptional. Giolito carries a 3.63 earned run average with a 19.6% strikeout percentage that is his lowest since his terrible 2018 campaign. He had a trio of blowups in his first seven appearances after missing all of last season to an internal brace surgery. He has been locked in over the past two-plus months. In his last 12 starts, Giolito carries a 2.34 ERA while averaging over six innings per appearance. His 20.4% strikeout rate still isn’t great, and he has benefitted from a .229 opponents average on balls in play, but he at least looks the part of a durable mid-rotation arm again.
Giolito has a good shot to reach 140 innings. He’d need to average a little under six innings per start over his next six appearances. If he stays healthy, he should take the ball at least seven times — which would give him leeway in case he has one bad outing in which he’s knocked out after two or three frames. Even a minimal injured list stint would take it off the table, though.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said over the weekend that the Sox had no intention of changing Giolito’s workload to keep him from vesting the option. No front office executive would publicly admit otherwise, of course, but there’s no reason to doubt Breslow in this case. The Red Sox are trying to secure a postseason berth. Even if they were out of contention, limiting a player’s workload so they could exercise an option to keep that player at a below-market rate wouldn’t make for an especially good relationship. If he gets to free agency, Giolito could take aim at something like the three-year deals secured by Luis Severino ($67MM with an opt-out after the second season) and Sean Manaea ($75MM with deferrals).
- Jorge Polanco, Mariners DH/2B ($8MM mutual option converts to $6MM player option at 450 plate appearances, escalates to $8MM player option at 550 plate appearances; $750K buyout in either case)*
Polanco re-signed with Seattle last offseason on a somewhat complicated deal that reflected his health uncertainty coming off left knee surgery. The deal contains an $8MM mutual option which would vest into a $6MM player provision if Polanco reaches 450 plate appearances. Polanco has taken 395 trips to the dish. He’s 55 plate appearances from reaching the vesting mark, and he’d escalate the player option price back to $8MM if he tallies another 155 trips before season’s end.
Initially, the Mariners looked to have struck gold with that surprise re-signing. Polanco blasted nine home runs while hitting .384 through the end of April. Even with knee and side discomfort limiting him to early-season DH work, he looked rejuvenated. Polanco’s production completely tanked over the next two months, however. He had a huge July but is back to a .213/.275/.298 showing in 14 games this month.
Polanco has hit .209/.283/.344 across 315 plate appearances since the beginning of May. His season batting line (.245/.310/.439) is still above-average, but there have been significant peaks and valleys. Cole Young has taken over at second base. While Eugenio Suárez’s impending free agency leaves an opening at third base, Polanco hasn’t shown he’s healthy enough to play there regularly. There’s a good chance the Mariners would buy out their end of the option if it remains a mutual provision. Polanco only needs to start another 13 or 14 games to give himself more security.
That shouldn’t be a problem with 36 games remaining on the schedule. The M’s have sat him in each of their past two games against left-handed opponents, but he continues to play regularly versus righties. He’s highly unlikely to get all the way to 550 PA’s to push the player option to $8MM, but he should easily unlock the $6MM player option that’ll give him the unilateral decision whether to return to free agency.
* The vesting provision also requires that Polanco hasn’t suffered a lower body injury that’d prevent him from being ready for Opening Day 2026.
- Matt Strahm, Phillies LHP ($5.5MM team option becomes guaranteed at $7.5MM at 60 innings)*
Strahm’s extension with the Phillies contained a $4.5MM club option for the 2026 season. The southpaw has already pushed that to $5.5MM and will escalate it to $6.5MM when he records two more outs. He’s 10 2/3 innings away from hitting the 60-inning threshold, at which point the price jumps to $7.5MM and becomes guaranteed.
In his case, it’s probably immaterial. Even if Strahm suffers a minor injury that keeps him from getting to 60 frames, the Phillies would probably exercise the option. Strahm is having another impressive season, working to a 3.10 ERA with six saves and 14 holds. His velocity has dropped a tick and he has lost a few points on his strikeout rate, but he has still punched out an above-average 27.7% of opponents. Strahm is one of Rob Thomson’s more trusted setup arms.
* The vesting provision also requires that Strahm pass a postseason physical.
Poll: Can The Mets Hang On To A Playoff Spot?
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Mets. While they managed to take two of three in their series against the Mariners this weekend, it was their first series win since they swept the Giants all the way back on the weekend of July 25. Since then, New York has gone just 4-14 and not only fallen five games back of the Phillies in the NL East, but is getting challenged by the insurgent Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite that brutal stretch of play in recent weeks, this isn’t exactly a new phenomenon. While the club was at one point up 5.5 games in the division, that was nearly two months ago at this point. They’ve gone 21-34 since then, good for a .318 winning percentage that falls between the full-season figures posted by the White Sox (.355) and Rockies (.282).
That makes the final six weeks of the regular season more important for the Mets than their fans could’ve imagined during their strong first half. The question for the Mets is less about the possibility of an NL East title and a bye through the Wild Card round at this point, and more about if they’ll be able to squeak into the postseason at all. The club attempted to break into what, at the time, looked to be a fairly wide-open race for a bye to the NLDS when they made a number of aggressive, buy-side trades in the run-up to the trade deadline.
Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto joined Edwin Diaz at the back of what was expected to become the most fearsome bullpen in the league, and Cedric Mullins was brought in to plug the one hole on the team’s roster. The results of those trades have been mixed to this point, Soto (8 1/3 scoreless innings) and Rogers (1.93 ERA in 9 1/3 innings) have both excelled to this point, but Helsley has struggled to an ugly 7.11 ERA in eight appearances for the Mets so far, with four additional unearned runs allowed as well. Meanwhile, Mullins has a paltry .255 on-base percentage with a 29.1% strikeout rate since arriving in the Big Apple.
Perhaps the failings of Helsley and Mullins in their first few games with the team could be overlooked if the rest of the team was performing better, but the club’s internal core hasn’t exactly impressed lately either. Only six teams in baseball have scored fewer runs than the Mets since June 13, and while the offense has picked things up in recent weeks (124 wRC+ in August) their run prevention has taken a nosedive. Only four teams (Marlins, Pirates, Nationals, and Rockies) have allowed more runs to score than the Mets since the start of August, and the decision not to bring in a starter at the deadline is looking particularly disastrous given the club’s rotation has put together a brutal 6.23 ERA in the weeks following the end of trade season.
Bleak as things have looked in recent weeks, however, that shouldn’t be taken to mean there’s no reason for optimism. After all, the Mets are still in playoff position even after all of those struggles. Only Cincinnati has a record above .500 among NL clubs not currently in playoff position, meaning the Mets are in a much more comfortable spot than they would be if they were in the AL, where teams like the Royals and Guardians are sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race with solid records. While the Reds (36-30 since the start of June) have looked good lately thanks to a fantastic rotation, their offense hasn’t looked especially threatening at any point in the year. Mets superstars Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are both firing on all cylinders offensively in recent weeks, by contrast, and that could help stave off Cincinnati unless the Reds’ bats get going.
Even if the Reds stick around in the race long-term, it’s at least possible that another team in the NL playoff picture could start to struggle. The Cubs have scored the fewest runs in baseball since July 1 after starting the year as an offensive juggernaut. With pitchers like Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd reaching uncharted territory in terms of workload and a big series against Milwaukee this week, their currently stable position in the NL playoff picture could look much less secure in a hurry. The Phillies, meanwhile, lost Zack Wheeler for an uncertain amount of time over the weekend. While Aaron Nola returned from the shelf to replace him in the rotation, his first start back (six earned runs surrendered in 2 1/3 innings to the lowly Nationals) didn’t exactly inspire confidence.
How do MLBTR readers view the Mets’ hopes of making a second consecutive postseason appearance this year? Will they be able to hold on despite their recent struggles, or will the rest of the NL playoff field manage to push them out? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Mets Be A Playoff Team This Year?
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Yes, they'll make the postseason. 61% (2,965)
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No, they'll be at home in October. 39% (1,902)
Total votes: 4,867
Poll: Can The Padres Hold Onto The NL West?
It’s been a big week for baseball in California. After the Padres swept the Giants and the Angels swept the Dodgers, a new leader stood atop the NL West. The Padres had claimed sole possession of first, while the Dodgers slipped into second, one game back of San Diego. The playoff odds will tell you that the Dodgers remain the favorites, but they’re losing momentum. According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers had an 83.8% chance to win their division on Opening Day, while the Padres’ odds were a mere 3.8%. As recently as three weeks ago, L.A.’s odds reached 96.6%, while San Diego’s sat at 1.5%. Yet, the Padres have since won 14 of their last 18 games, while the Dodgers are 8-10 in the same span. Accordingly, FanGraphs now has L.A.’s odds just below two-thirds (63.8%) and San Diego’s just above one-third (36.1%). You can think of it this way: These odds mean the Padres are now about as likely to win the NL West as the White Sox (.364 winning percentage) are to win on any given day. It’s still not likely, but it’s more than possible. The White Sox, as bad as they are, have still won 44 games.
This big week of California baseball will continue into the weekend, as the Dodgers host the Padres for a three-game set at Chavez Ravine. With a series win, the Dodgers would secure the season series tiebreaker, which could prove critical in a close division race. A sweep would give them sole possession of first place once again. Conversely, for the Padres, a series win would keep their chances of winning the tiebreaker alive, while a sweep would give them a four-game cushion over their rivals. With a four-game lead, the Padres would control their own destiny for the 38 games remaining in the regular season; they only have three more against the Dodgers after this weekend.
The Dodgers are lined up to send Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow to the mound. While the team continues to be plagued by injuries – most recently to Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Hyeseong Kim, Tommy Edman, and Brock Stewart – the starting rotation is much stronger with Kershaw, Snell, and Glasnow, as well as Emmet Sheehan and Shohei Ohtani, all healthy at the same time, alongside 2025 All-Star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While the Dodgers have seen their playoff odds plummet over the past three weeks, their starting rotation leads the majors in strikeout rate and SIERA in that time. They also rank second in groundball rate and xERA and third in fWAR. All this to say, the Dodgers’ starters, should they stay healthy, will be a strength for this team down the stretch.
As for the Padres, their pitching plans for the weekend became more complicated when Michael King was scratched with knee inflammation, heading back to the IL after only one start. He had just returned from a thoracic nerve issue that kept him out for more than two months. San Diego’s rotation, now more than ever, has a lot of question marks behind Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta. Yu Darvish has been inconsistent since he made his season debut in July; the former ace is almost 39, and he’s missed a lot of time with injuries in the past few years. Deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes has only made two starts since returning from a four-month IL stint, and he’s yet to make it out of the fifth inning. It’s hard to know what the Padres can expect from him as well. The recently recalled Randy Vásquez is a great backup plan for King – he’s a much more established sixth starter than most teams can boast – but his 5.98 xERA and 5.85 SIERA are huge red flags underlying his 3.93 ERA in 22 starts this season.
Thankfully for the Padres, they have the best bullpen in the league backing up their starting staff. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller bolstered a group that already included Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada with flamethrower Mason Miller in a blockbuster deadline trade. The Padres’ bullpen leads the majors with 37 wins, 40 saves, a 2.97 ERA, and 6.7 fWAR, and keep in mind, Miller has only been a part of it for a couple of weeks. As for the Dodgers, they might have a great bullpen if it weren’t missing Scott, Yates, Stewart, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, and Brusdar Graterol. It would be an exaggeration to call their arm barn a weakness, but one has to imagine that Dave Roberts is a lot less confident than Mike Shildt when it comes time to take his starter out of a game.
It should also be said that Miller and Cortes were far from Preller’s only trade deadline pickups. While Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers didn’t add much – Stewart and outfielder Alex Call were their biggest acquisitions – Preller may have won the deadline. At the very least, he won the deadline in the NL West, according to two-thirds of respondents in a recent MLBTR poll. At 5:01 PM CT on July 31, the newest Padres included Miller, Cortes, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, JP Sears, Freddy Fermin, and Will Wagner. The Dodgers were still three games up on the Padres at that point, but the Padres were a whole new team, with a deeper bullpen, a stronger rotation, a better catcher, and a more powerful offense against righties and lefties alike. Equally important was their decision to hold onto all of their key contributors who had come up in pre-deadline trade rumors, including Cease and Suarez.
The Dodgers have the better odds, according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA. They also have the better run differential, the higher FanGraphs WAR, and the reputation as the team to beat. After all, they’re the reigning World Series champions. They’ve won the NL West 11 times in the past 12 seasons. Meanwhile, the Padres haven’t won the West in almost 20 years. They haven’t won a pennant since the ’90s. They’ve never won it all. Yet, they’re playing like the better team right now, and they have the one-game lead to prove it. The question is: Can they hold on?
Will the Padres finally usurp the Dodgers in the NL West? Will the Dodgers’ dynasty live on another year? Or could a dark horse in the division pull off a remarkable comeback? Have your say in the poll below!
Who Will Win the NL West?
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Los Angeles Dodgers 53% (2,201)
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San Diego Padres 40% (1,665)
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Colorado Rockies 6% (257)
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San Francisco Giants 1% (29)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 0% (20)
Total votes: 4,172
Should Trevor Story Trigger His Opt-Out?
Shortstop Trevor Story can opt out of his deal with the Red Sox after this season. For much of his Boston tenure, that opt-out has been an afterthought. Lately, he has been on fire and made it seem like a legitimate possibility once again.
Rob Bradford of the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast asked Story about his upcoming decision. Story spoke of his love of playing in Boston, which sort of points against him opting out, but he also acknowledged that there's a "business side of it" as well.
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