MLBTR Originals

Active extension talks between the Blue Jays and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came to an apparent halt last month. The beginning of Spring Training, which Guerrero set as a deadline for negotiations, came and went without a deal. But that hasn’t stopped those negotiations from being a major topic of discussion around baseball in the weeks since.

Some of that publicity has been created by Guerrero himself; while extension negotiations are often played relatively close to the vest by both players and their clubs, Guerrero has been unusually candid about the negotiations throughout the process. His public comments have ranged from acknowledging back in December that the Jays had extended him a $340MM offer to his recent interview with ESPN where he suggested his asking price clocked in below $600MM over at least 14 years.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Guerrero set his asking price at a net present value of $500MM in negotiations with Toronto, whether the deal was a straight $500MM contract with no deferrals or a higher sticker price including deferred money that took the net present value back down to $500MM. The Jays reportedly did offer Guerrero about $500MM, but with deferrals that knocked the net present value down to the $400-450MM range, so the two sides were about $50-100MM apart in terms of NPV.

It’s an interesting development, not only for the window it provides into Guerrero’s thinking with his final season prior to free agency just around the corner, but also because of how rare it is for a player’s asking price to be reported on so specifically. With reasonable confidence in the knowledge that Guerrero would have accepted a 14-year, $500MM contract offer from the Jays, the decision by Toronto not to offer Guerrero that deal is an especially interesting point of discussion.

It’s easy to see why Guerrero would feel comfortable asking for that sort of contract. The slugger is coming off a superb season at the plate for the Blue Jays last year where he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, a strikeout rate of just 13.8%, and a wRC+ of 165. The performance was good for a sixth-place finish in the AL’s stacked MVP race last year, and in terms of overall production was more or less a perfect replica of his 2021 campaign where he posted a 166 wRC+ and finished second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. With two seasons of that caliber now under his belt, it’s impossible to argue against the fact that Guerrero is one of the league’s most explosive offensive talents.

That lofty ceiling with the bat is made all the more tantalizing by his youth; Guerrero will play next year at just 27 years old, one year older than Juan Soto is now. Soto stands as perhaps the best reason for Guerrero to feel emboldened to set his asking price at half a billion dollars. After all, the star outfielder’s combination of youth and offensive prowess allowed him to land a 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets back in December. It’s the richest contract in the history of professional sports and completely shattered all contractual precedents. Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s own $700MM deal with the Dodgers, which has an estimated net present value of $461MM, Soto’s contract includes no deferred money.

In that context, Guerrero setting his asking price at approximately two-thirds of Soto’s deal is understandable. After all, neither player contributes much in the field or on the basepaths, and when Guerrero is at his best he’s easily the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability. The Blue Jays themselves clearly saw Soto as a player worth splurging on, as they were a finalist for his services. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported back in December that the Jays’ offer to Soto clocked in under $700MM, but that shows that Toronto has the financial wherewithal to make a massive offer and a willingness to put pen to paper on such a deal for a player relatively similar to Guerrero. As mentioned earlier, they also made a substantial offer to Guerrero that went beyond $400MM in terms of NPV.

With that being said, the comparison isn’t without flaws. Guerrero is already more or less restricted to first base defensively, while Soto is capable of playing passable defense in the outfield corners and likely could theoretically move to first base in the future, as other corner outfielders like Bryce Harper have done in the past. More important than either his slightly more versatile defensive skill set or the fact that he hit free agency one year younger than Guerrero will, however, is the fact that Soto is simply in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s aforementioned peak seasons.

Setting Soto aside, there are valid reasons for concern when it comes to Guerrero. The slugger has shown a level of year-to-year volatility that could be difficult to stomach for a franchise cornerstone on what would be the second-largest contract in MLB history, and is just one year removed from a lackluster 2023 campaign where he posted a wRC+ of 118 with just 1.3 fWAR. One also doesn’t have to look very far to find first basemen who were comparable or even greater offensive talents than Guerrero at his age but saw their production take a nosedive in their early 30s. Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols stand out as the most obvious examples of the pitfalls that can come with offering even immense offensive talents franchise-altering contracts under the assumption they’ll remain productive into their mid-to-late 30s.

Another consideration that must be taken into account from Toronto’s perspective is the club’s own prospects of near-term success at the big league level. The Jays, as presently constructed, feature an aging roster with plenty of holes and question marks that figure to only grow in the coming seasons as veterans like Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios continue to age while pieces of the club’s core like Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk reach free agency. The club is coming off a fifth-place finish in the AL East last year and is projected by Fangraphs for a record of just 82-80, less than a full win ahead of the Rays for fourth place and behind the Yankees’ division leading projection of 86-76. If Toronto were to enter a rebuild in the near future after giving Guerrero a massive contract, they’d risk wasting the prime of their superstar’s career and returning to contention only when his best years are already behind him.

If you were in the Blue Jays’ shoes, would you have signed on the dotted line to keep Guerrero in the fold on a 14-year, $500MM contract? Have your say in the poll below: