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MLBTR Originals

The Brewers’ Post-Adames Infield Options

By Anthony Franco | February 3, 2025 at 4:55pm CDT

For the first time in three and a half years, the Brewers enter camp with a question at shortstop. Milwaukee was never going to make a realistic push to retain Willy Adames when he hit the open market. They’ll replace Adames internally, though doing so will open a camp battle at one of second or third base.

Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz manned those respective positions in 2024. They were each highly-regarded prospects whom scouts felt would stick at shortstop. They only moved off the position in deference to Adames. They each thrived at an easier spot on the defensive spectrum. Turang tied for seventh among second basemen with six Outs Above Average, according to Statcast. Defensive Runs Saved graded him at a much favorable +22 runs, earning him both the Gold Glove and Platinum Glove at the position. Ortiz’s third base work was just as highly-regarded. He tied with Matt Chapman for the league lead at the position with 11 Outs Above Average; DRS ranked him fifth with a +8 mark.

If the Brewers have a preference for one of those players at shortstop, they haven’t tipped their hand publicly. Turang played exclusively second base last season but started 10 games at shortstop in 2023. Ortiz started one game there last year, the only time Adames was not penciled into the lineup. (That came the day after Milwaukee clinched the NL Central.) Either player should be able to move back to their initial position, where there’s a good chance they’d still a plus defender.

In either case, the trickle-down impact of Adames’ departure will be felt somewhere other than shortstop. If Turang moves to the left side of the infield, the Brewers will need someone else to step up at second base. That’d be true of the hot corner if Ortiz kicks over. Someone will be in line for an uptick in at-bats. While the Brewers could theoretically still address this via free agency, the remaining infielders beyond Alex Bregman (e.g. Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Yoán Moncada, Enrique Hernández) aren’t especially exciting.

Let’s run through the internal options who could earn themselves regular playing time once camp gets underway this month.

Sal Frelick

The most intriguing move would be to bring Frelick into the infield. Last winter, Milwaukee considered moving the speedy outfielder to either second or third base. That was in recognition of their somewhat crowded outfield depth chart and the risk of relying on a then-unproven Ortiz at third base. Ortiz’s excellent year meant Milwaukee wouldn’t have had many infield at-bats to offer Frelick even if they wanted to commit to him at the position.

In the end, Frelick didn’t start a single game in the infield. He played four innings at third base over two late-game substitutions. Frelick played mostly right field, where he continued to demonstrate elite range. He won his first career Gold Glove while receiving plus grades from Statcast (7 Outs Above Average) and DRS (+16). Frelick has the arm for third base, but his speed would be less impactful on the infield. Skipper Pat Murphy said at the beginning of the offseason that the Brewers were open to the possibility of continuing the third base experiment. Is it worthwhile to cut his innings in right field to give him regular infield run?

Tyler Black

The 24-year-old Black probably has the highest offensive upside of anyone in this competition. He earned some Top 100 prospect buzz going into last season. That came on the heels of a huge .284/.417/.513 showing between Double-A Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville in 2023. Black didn’t quite replicate those numbers over what was closer to a full season with Nashville. The lefty hitter posted a .258/.375/.429 slash with 14 homers across 462 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He struggled in his first MLB cameo, hitting .204 with only two extra-base hits (both doubles) in 18 games.

While Black’s stock is down slightly from where it stood 12 months ago, he still has clear offensive promise. He walked at an excellent 13.2% clip while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 18.8% rate in Triple-A. Baseball America ranked him the #5 prospect in the Milwaukee system this offseason, writing that he still possesses the best strike zone discipline of any of the organization’s prospects.

Black’s minor league exit velocities were middling, though, raising some questions about how much power he’ll bring to the table. The biggest issue is where he’ll land defensively. BA grades him as a below-average defender with a subpar arm. That makes him a tough fit at the hot corner. The Brewers seem to agree, as he only played 79 innings at third base in Triple-A last season after logging more than 800 innings there in 2023. He hasn’t played second base since 2022. Milwaukee seems to prefer Black at first base, but they’d need to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract to play him there regularly. He could bounce around the infield while seeing action at designated hitter, but he’s not a typical player for a Milwaukee team that strongly values infield defense.

Caleb Durbin

The Brewers landed Durbin alongside Nestor Cortes in this offseason’s Devin Williams trade. New York had added the 24-year-old (25 this month) to their 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. The 5’6″ infielder had a breakout season between three minor league affiliates. Durbin hit .275/.388/.451 with more walks (13.1%) than strikeouts (9.9%). He stole 31 bases while bouncing between second base, third base and shortstop. He spent more than half the season in Triple-A, where he hit .287/.396/.471 across 375 plate appearances.

Before the trade, Yankees manager Aaron Boone had at least paid lip service to the idea of Durbin being in the mix for their starting second base job. He could be in a similar position in Milwaukee. The bottom line results in Triple-A certainly suggest he’s ready for an MLB look. Still, most scouting reports feel Durbin projects as a slap-hitting utilityman rather than a true regular. Baseball America ranks him 23rd among Milwaukee prospects, praising his contact skills and speed while writing that he can play an average second or third base. He’s not expected to provide much in the way of power. While he managed 10 homers in 82 Triple-A contests, he did so with a paltry 83.8 MPH average exit velocity and 25% hard contact rate. Both marks would’ve landed in the bottom 10 qualified major league hitters.

Oliver Dunn

Milwaukee acquired Dunn from the Phillies last offseason. The Brewers were intrigued by the left-handed hitter’s massive .271/.396/.506 showing in Double-A in 2023. The 27-year-old Dunn got a chance to make his major league debut last year. He struggled in a relatively small sample, hitting .221/.282/.316 while striking out 38.5% of the time. Whiffs have been an issue throughout his career. Dunn has fanned at a 28.1% clip in parts of five minor league seasons. He has walked at a massive 15.6% rate over that stretch, but that’s a tough approach to pull off against major league pitchers who have far better command than most arms he has seen in the minors.

A back injury ended Dunn’s season in the middle of June. That cost him a chance to play regularly in Triple-A for the first time in his career. He still has only 15 games at the top minor league level. Dunn has multiple options and is probably ticketed for Nashville to start the year.

——————————————————–

Andruw Monasterio and Vinny Capra are the other multi-positional infielders on the 40-man roster. They’re each in their late 20s with modest offensive upside. They project more as fringe roster types than candidates for regular playing time, though Monasterio made it into 59 MLB games last season. He hit .208/.303/.272 with one home run.

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MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers Caleb Durbin Oliver Dunn Sal Frelick Tyler Black

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Poll: Who’s Winning The Offseason In The NL East?

By Nick Deeds | February 3, 2025 at 4:25pm CDT

The calendar has flipped to February and the start of Spring Training is just a matter of days away. While some notable free agents (including nine of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents for the 2024-25 offseason) remain unsigned, most clubs have already done the heavy lifting in terms of preparing their roster for the 2025 season. In the coming days, we’ll be taking a look around the league at which clubs have had the strongest offseason to this point. Today, that focus is on the NL East division. After sending three teams to the playoffs in 2024 while a fourth debuted a number of top prospects, there’s plenty of big expectations headed into 2025 all throughout the division. Which team has done the most to set themselves up for success this winter? Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies entered the offseason in need of some late-inning relief help after Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez both hit free agency at the outset of the winter. The club signed right-hander Jordan Romano to a one-year deal after he was non-tendered by the Blue Jays in November, but the club’s other pitching additions have actually been focused on the starting rotation. The addition of versatile swing man Joe Ross creates some much-needed depth and fills the role Spencer Turnbull played on the 2024 club, but the club’s biggest move this winter was swinging a deal with the Marlins for Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo will fit right into the Phillies’ powerhouse rotation alongside while also lessening the club’s reliance on right-hander Taijuan Walker after a disastrous 2024 campaign.

Things have been very quiet for the club on the positional side of things, however, with the addition of outfielder Max Kepler as their regular left fielder being the only notable addition so far. Kepler should help bolster the club’s outfield depth and push Johan Rojas into a part-time role after a difficult 2024 campaign, but it’s still somewhat surprising to see the club make so few alterations to its lineup in spite of rumors earlier this winter that the club could look to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm or right fielder Nick Castellanos in order to more drastically reshape the lineup.

New York Mets

It’s undeniable that the Mets made the single most significant addition of anyone in the division this winter when they signed Juan Soto to a record-shattering $765MM deal just before the Winter Meetings began. Soto is a transformational player with an MVP-caliber ceiling, and even without other supplemental moves landing him is a feat for the organization to be proud of. With that being said, however, the club’s approach to the rest of its offseason since signing Soto has been surprisingly modest. They reunited with veteran southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency, but opted to replace Jose Quintana and Luis Severino in the rotation by bringing in Manaea’s longtime A’s teammate Frankie Montas as he searches for a bounceback and converting Clay Holmes into a starter after several years of success as a late-inning reliever in the Bronx.

Meanwhile, they made something of a splash in the bullpen by adding lefty set-up man A.J. Minter to the mix behind closer Edwin Diaz while also bolstering the club’s depth with deals for Justin Hagenman, Dylan Covey, and Griffin Canning. Additions to the lineup beyond Soto have been fairly muted as well. The club swung a trade to acquire Jose Siri from the Rays in a move that should help the club weather the loss of Harrison Bader in free agency, while adding Nick Madrigal and Jared Young to the mix has helped improve the club’s bench depth. Noticeably absent from the club’s spending spree this winter, however, is a reunion with fan favorite slugger Pete Alonso. That’s left New York with plenty of questions about the infield corners, where Mark Vientos figures to handle one position with internal youngsters like Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio also in the conversation for playing time.

Atlanta Braves

Despite the club’s history of striking early on the free agent and trade markets, the early part of this winter was extremely quiet for the Braves outside of them moving the salary of slugger Jorge Soler to the Angels on the first day of the offseason. The club watched Max Fried and Charlie Morton depart in free agency from their rotation but have not yet done anything of note to address those departures, instead hoping the return of Spencer Strider from injury as well as depth options like Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson will be able to cover the lost innings. Where Atlanta has made a splash, however, is in the lineup. After losing Ronald Acuna Jr. for most of 2024 amid a season full of disappointing performances up and down the club’s lineup, the club added Jurickson Profar on a three-year deal. Profar supplants Jarred Kelenic as the club’s everyday left fielder, while depth additions Bryan De La Cruz and Carlos D. Rodriguez should help Kelenic cover right field until Acuna returns from injury.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals’ youth movement is in full swing with a number of top prospects having reached the majors, highlighted by an outfield that now includes both James Wood and Dylan Crews. They’ve made a number of short-term moves to supplement their young roster this winter, with the most impactful of those being the trade they worked out to bring in first baseman Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers in exchange for southpaw Robert Garcia. Lowe will pair with free agent addition Josh Bell to handle first base and DH duties in D.C. while infield Amed Rosario was signed to shore up the club’s depth all around the diamond.

Turning to the pitching staff, the Nationals have reunited with Trevor Williams while adding both Michael Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara to the rotation mix in order to support a group of young arms led by MacKenzie Gore. The club’s surplus of viable starting options should also help keep things steady in a bullpen that saw more subtractions and additions this winter. In addition to Garcia being shipped out in the Lowe trade, the Nats non-tendered longtime closer Kyle Finnegan back in November. More recently, the club added veteran right-hander Jorge Lopez on a one-year deal to fill Finnegan’s role as a veteran presence in the late innings.

Miami Marlins

As one of the few clubs in the majors committed to rebuilding at the moment, the Marlins’ offseason looks very different than the rest of the division. Infielder/outfielder Eric Wagaman is the club’s only major league free agent signing, and he has just 18 games of big league experience under his belt to this point. The club also added Matt Mervis to the first base mix alongside Jonah Bride in a swap with the Cubs for Vidal Brujan. Other moves to this point have been more focused on shipping out major league talent than bringing it in, with Jake Burger heading to the Rangers and Luzardo moving to the club’s division rivals in Philadelphia. Those deals have brought in a number of prospects, however: Miami’s farm system added Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd in the Luzardo deal while Max Acosta, Brayan Mendoza, and Echedry Vargas all came over in the exchange for Burger.

__________________________________________________________

The additions of Soto, Luzardo, and Profar in New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta respectively all figure to provide major impact, but all three top clubs in the East have been a bit more measured than expected, outside of those moves. Meanwhile, the Nationals have made a flurry of short-term deals and signings to augment their club but haven’t made the sort of high-impact addition many expected with veteran Patrick Corbin coming off the books this winter. Miami’s approach is different than the other five as a rebuilding club, with a weakened major league roster being the price the Marlins have paid to replenish their farm system. Of the five NL East clubs, which one has had the strongest offseason so far? Have your say in the poll below:

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What Other Competitive Balance Round Draft Picks Could Be Traded This Winter?

By Mark Polishuk | February 2, 2025 at 10:37pm CDT

The Competitive Balance Rounds are a pair of bonus rounds within the MLB draft, designed to give an extra pick to the game’s smaller-market teams.  Teams that fall within either the bottom 10 in revenues and market size are eligible, and since 2017, the league determined the eligible teams based on a formula involving market score, revenues, and winning percentage.  The first of the two Competitive Balance Rounds (CBR-A) comes right before the start of the second round, and CBR-B comes right after the second round.  For the 2025 draft, a total of 15 teams will gain an extra pick, and their order within their respective round is determined by their win totals in the 2024 season.

With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded.  Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league.  Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.

Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes.  This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.

To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves.  Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place.  Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.

(First, some notes on the draft order.  The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients.  That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B.  If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round.  Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order.  This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks.  The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)

Onto the selections….

Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants.  Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure.  The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins’ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.

Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick.  If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.

Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal.  Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team.  The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers.  With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.

Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves.  With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities.  Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.

Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons.  As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft.  Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.

Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.

Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade.  This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.

Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.

Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year.  Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.

Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.

Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.

Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey.  While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick.  Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.

Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom.  Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.

Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending.  In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.

Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons.  Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.

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2025 Amateur Draft Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays

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The Orioles’ Underrated Trade Chip

By Mark Polishuk | February 1, 2025 at 10:33am CDT

Exactly one year ago today, the Orioles and Brewers agreed to the blockbuster trade that sent Corbin Burnes to Baltimore.  Since Burnes has now moved on to sign with the Diamondbacks and the O’s didn’t win a playoff game in the star right-hander’s lone season at Camden Yards, debates may rage for years about who “won” the trade, even if an argument can certainly be made that both teams made off well.

From the Orioles’ perspective, there was clear benefit to installing an ace like Burnes atop the team’s rotation.  On paper, a frontline pitcher was the final piece needed to put a young, deep, and talented O’s team over the top as a World Series contender, even if things didn’t ultimately work out for Baltimore in October.  Giving up Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a Competitive Balance Round-A draft pick for one season of Burnes’ services was seen as an acceptable trade package, since the perception was that the Orioles could afford to be a little aggressive, given the extra depth afforded by their very deep farm system.

Fast forward a year, and the Orioles (perhaps frustratingly to the team and their fans) find themselves in roughly the same spot heading into the 2025 season.  Still looking for a postseason breakout, the O’s haven’t been sitting on their hands, as Tyler O’Neill, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sanchez, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Charlie Morton have all been signed as free agent additions, boosting the club’s payroll from roughly $102.5MM in 2024 to a projected $157.3MM in 2025.  Such a payroll hike is quite substantial, but O’Neill is the only one of those players signed beyond next season, as the Orioles haven’t yet shown the increased appetite for longer-term spending that many expected under new owner David Rubenstein.

The roster as it stands on February 1 still looks like a strong one, and the Orioles should certainly be considered favorites to at least reach the playoffs for the third consecutive year.  Still, if the O’s want to make one more splashy move and aren’t yet willing to break the bank in free agency, that leaves the trade market as GM Mike Elias’ best route for an upgrade.  Even if Baltimore’s farm system has now been depleted by trades and several players graduating out of “prospect” status and onto the MLB roster, the Orioles also have another kind of one-year-only surplus that might yet prove beneficial in landing more experienced talent by Opening Day.

Unlike in the NFL, NBA, or NHL, Major League Baseball doesn’t allow its teams to trade draft picks….with one exception.  The teams that receive a bonus pick via the two Competitive Balance rounds are allowed to deal that pick away, which has provided an interesting wrinkle to trade discussions since the CB rounds were instituted prior to the 2017 draft.  These bonus picks are allotted to teams that fall within the league’s bottom 10 in either market size or revenues, and the Orioles have qualified for an extra CBR pick every year.

As noted earlier, the Orioles’ willingness to include their CBR-A pick (the 34th overall selection in the 2024 draft) was a key component of the Burnes trade, and the Brewers used that pick to select slugging Tennessee first base prospect Blake Burke last July.  This offseason saw the Reds trade their CBR-A pick to the Dodgers as part of the Gavin Lux trade, the Athletics included their CBR-A pick as part of the trade package that brought Jeffrey Springs to West Sacramento, and the Diamondbacks sent Slade Cecconi and their CBR-B selection to the Guardians in exchange for Josh Naylor.

Because the teams who qualify for CBR selections switch rounds every year, Baltimore’s extra pick comes in the second Competitive Balance Round in 2025, currently slotted as the 71st overall selection.  This means the Orioles will be on the clock six times within the first 94 picks of the 2025 draft, between their regular picks (19th, 59th, 94th) in the first three rounds, their CBR-B pick (71st), and the compensation picks (30th, 31st) that the club received when Burnes and Anthony Santander signed elsewhere.  Because the Orioles are a revenue-sharing recipient, and because Burnes and Santander rejected qualifying offers and signed deals worth more than $50MM, the O’s landed those compensatory picks right after the end of the first round.

The double dose of compensation picks might make the O’s more likely than not to move their CBR-B pick, just because it’s fairly uncommon for a team to have two qualified free agents depart in the same offseason.  It should be noted that the Orioles’ decision to trade their CBR-A pick for Burnes might’ve been influenced by another bonus pick the team received in that 2024 draft class.  The O’s received the 32nd overall pick under the league’s Prospect Promotion Incentive rules, since Gunnar Henderson won the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Award after being ranked within the top 100 of preseason prospect lists from (at least two of) MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN.com.

Even if a CBR-B pick doesn’t carry as much value as the CBR-A selection dealt for Burnes, the Diamondbacks’ Naylor trade is evidence that a CBR-B pick can still bring back some quality talent.  Hypothetically, the Orioles could look to replicate the Burnes trade as closely as possible, and include their CBR pick as part of a larger trade package for an ace pitcher.  Even if the Orioles might technically have a rotation surplus if all their starters are healthy, it isn’t clear if any of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Morton, or Sugano are necessarily the pitcher you’d want starting the first game of a playoff series.

A mention of Dylan Cease here is unavoidable.  The Padres are known to be gauging interest in Cease, who (like Burnes) is a year away from free agency.  Baltimore had interest in Cease last winter before the White Sox dealt him to San Diego, and that interest extended into this offseason, as the Orioles reportedly saw a Cease trade as a pivot move in case Burnes signed with a new team.  Further extending the comparison to Burnes, the O’s might well be viewing Cease as another one-year rental, with an eye towards recouping another compensatory pick next winter if and when Cease were to leave in free agency.

It would obviously take more than just the CBR-B pick to obtain Cease, but just having a tradable draft selection gives the O’s an interesting chip that most other teams linked to Cease can’t offer.  Of the teams publicly known to have interest in Cease, Minnesota is the only other club who has a CBR selection — the Twins select in CBR-A this year, so their possession of the 36th overall pick could even give them a leg up over the Orioles.  However, what the Twins don’t have is two extra compensatory picks expanding their overall draft pool, so Minnesota might well be less willing to move its CBR pick than the Orioles.

Regardless of whether the CBR-B pick is traded or not, Baltimore is already going to be getting a heck of a bounty back in the 2025 draft.  Selecting six prospects within the top 94 is a terrific way to help restock a thinned-out farm system, but selecting five prospects and trading the 71st overall pick for some immediate help might be the more effective way of managing the Orioles’ long-term and short-term goals.

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The Giants Shouldn’t Call It An Offseason Yet

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

The Giants' offseason got out to a roaring start and has quieted to something of a murmur. Even before the winter truly began and they formally announced a changing of the guard in baseball operations, then-advisor and now-president of baseball ops Buster Posey at least had a hand in (if he wasn't firmly driving the bus) extending Matt Chapman for six years and $151MM. At his introductory press conference, Posey offered up the following quote:

"I think back on some of my earliest memories walking into a spring training clubhouse -- walking in and seeing Willie Mays sitting at a table with Willie McCovey and Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal. The next week it's Will Clark, Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds. I always appreciated -- and I don't think I appreciated it as much when I was a younger player -- but as time went on, I appreciated what that meant not only to the community but to us as players. There's a standard and expectation for being a San Francisco Giant. It's a privilege to try to go out on the field and hold ourselves accountable to that standard. You can go more toward my era, with [Matt] Cain and [Tim] Lincecum, [Madison] Bumgarner and [Brandon] Crawford and [Brandon] Belt. What I came to realize is sure, all those guys were great players and part of great teams, but what those guys ultimately meant to the San Francisco Giants fanbase and the community was memories. And all of us that are lucky enough to get to be involved in baseball in whatever capacity, understand that not only is it the greatest game in the world, but we're in the memory-making business. It's ultimately entertainment. It's an opportunity for grandparents and parents to share memories. It's an opportunity for strangers sitting out in the bleachers to share a great memory that happens at the ballpark and that can be talked about from that time on for the rest of their life, potentially."

Just over a month into the offseason, that mentality appeared to be on full display. Willy Adames put pen to paper on the largest contract the franchise had ever handed out: a seven-year, $182MM contract. The team was tied to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and looked into trades for star players like Kyle Tucker and Garrett Crochet, ultimately balking at the notion of including top prospect Bryce Eldridge in a package for either. Still, it was a promising start to a winter after years of the Giants eschewing bids for high-end free agents and generally showing an aversion to long-term commitments.

The vibe surrounding the Giants seems much different just six to seven weeks later. The Giants' most recent move was a cost-saving trade. Posey is now expressing that he's comfortable with the roster as currently constructed.

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Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership San Francisco Giants

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Poll: Should The Phillies Extend J.T. Realmuto?

By Nick Deeds | January 31, 2025 at 4:45pm CDT

Earlier this offseason, reporting out of Philadelphia indicated that Phillies brass are considering reducing the workload of veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto as he enters the final season of his deal with the club, after the first season of Realmuto’s career where he played less than 100 games due to injury. In that same report, there was a suggestion that the club could look to broach the topic of a contract extension with Realmuto ahead of his final year of team control, whether that would ultimately come later in the offseason or once camp opened up for Spring Training.

As January comes to a close, there have been no further reports regarding the state of talks between the sides. That could change quickly, however, given that camp will open in just two weeks. After all, last winter saw plenty of rumors about the possibility of an extension between the Phillies and right-hander Zack Wheeler, but talks did not begin until Spring Training was underway and eventually resolved in early March. Should the Phillies be interested in following a similar timeline with Realmuto, it’s easy to imagine talks starting up in the near future.

Realmuto, 34 in March, was dealt to the Phillies by the division rival Marlins prior to the 2019 season and has been a key cog in the Philadelphia lineup ever since. In 699 games for the club, the veteran has slashed an excellent .266/.331/.463 with a 112 wRC+. That puts Realmuto alongside Salvador Perez and Sean Murphy has one of the better offensive catchers in the past decade, though he falls outside the top tier occupied by Adley Rutschman, William Contreras, Willson Contreras, and Will Smith. Realmuto was at his best during the 2022 season, when he finished seventh in NL MVP voting, won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards for the catcher position, and became the second catcher in MLB history to post 20 homers and 20 steals in a single season.

The past two seasons have seen Realmuto’s age and heavy workloads begin to catch up with him, however. He’s hit just .258/.315/.442 (105 wRC+) since the start of the 2023 campaign. His 25.2% strikeout rate during that time is higher than ever, and his walk rate has dipped to just 6.5%. Perhaps more importantly, Realmuto has fallen from the upper echelon of defensive catchers in the sport to become below average in terms of both blocking and framing, though he still remains elite when it comes to controlling the running game. While Realmuto has remained productive even amid this recent decline in skills, it’s fair to wonder if the veteran’s downturn in production the past two years could worsen as he enters his mid-30s given the harsh aging curve associated with the catcher position.

On the other hand, Philadelphia’s options without Realmuto in the fold are uninspiring. After a strong year as Realmuto’s backup in 2022, Garrett Stubbs has been one of the worst hitters in the sport the past two seasons with a paltry .206/.287/.271 slash line in 95 games. Youngster Rafael Marchan hit a far more robust .294/.345/.549 (146 wRC+) last year while filling in for Realmuto during his trip to the injured list, but that came in a sample of just 17 games and 56 plate appearances. If Realmuto were to head to free agency after the coming season, the Phillies would need to find an external addition at catcher to fortify that group anyway.

None of those options figure to be a clear upgrade even over the diminished form Realmuto has shown the past two seasons. Danny Jansen, Jose Trevino, and Victor Caratini are among the best catchers expected to be available next winter, but Realmuto’s 105 wRC+ is tied with Caratini for the lead among that group over the past two years and his 4.2 fWAR easily clears the production that trio has put up in timeshare roles. While a big season from Jansen and/or an additional step back from Realmuto could change things, a healthy season from Realmuto with a reduction in his day-to-day workload could improve his numbers and make him more difficult to bring back should he make it to the open market.

How do MLBTR readers feel president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski should handle Realmuto ahead of his final season under contract? Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Philadelphia Phillies J.T. Realmuto

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Poll: Should The Padres Trade Dylan Cease Or Michael King?

By Nick Deeds | January 30, 2025 at 9:31am CDT

While the Padres no longer appear to be under a mandate to cut payroll for the 2025 season, signs still point to the club needing to make a trade or two in order to free up space in an already-maximized budget if they hope to address multiple holes in the lineup. That’s led to plenty of rumors surrounding the club’s pending free agents, the most valuable of whom are without a doubt right-handers Dylan Cease and Michael King.

Trading a front-line starter like Cease or King might seem counterproductive for a club that’s already lacking in rotation depth, but it’s possible that the trade return for either player could involve a young starter or two while allowing the Padres to reallocate the freed up payroll space to the lineup. It’s surely under that logic that San Diego has explored Cease’s market and discussed King with rival clubs as well. The Padres have reportedly been more resistant to trading King under the belief that he’s more likely than Cease to sign an extension, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is generally open-minded when it comes to trade discussions. That the two sides face a nearly $1.5MM gap after exchanging salary figures and appear headed toward an arbitration hearing only adds an additional layer of complexity.

Cease, 29, is the bigger name of the two righties. A longtime top prospect with the Cubs and White Sox, the right-hander debuted on the south side back in 2019 and had developed into a legitimate front-end arm by 2021. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.52 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.32 FIP and an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate. Perhaps even more impressive than Cease’s strong rate numbers is his volume. The right-hander has been a workhorse by the standards of the modern game with 716 innings of work across 130 starts since the start of 2021. That’s the most starts and seventh-highest innings count of any starter in that time.

By contrast, King doesn’t offer the same level of star power or track record. The 2024 campaign was actually the first time King has acted as a full-time starter in the majors, and his 173 2/3 innings of work were not only a career high but the first time he had thrown even 105 innings since 2018. The results can’t be denied, however, and King was nothing short of excellent. He posted a 2.95 ERA (139 ERA+) with a 3.33 FIP. His peripherals are quite similar to Cease, as well; his 27.7% strikeout rate was a touch lower than Cease’s 29.4% figure, but his 8.7% walk rate was nearly identical to Cease’s 8.5%. King’s 6.2% barrel rate was far better than that of Cease.

Given that similar production and a price tag that’ll be $5-7MM less than that of Cease, it’s easy to imagine some clubs preferring King between the two. If King can fetch what the Padres deem to be a better return, moving the more affordable arm and keeping the more proven/durable righty makes some sense. On the other hand, King still seems likelier to sign an extension than the Boras Corp-represented Cease, and Cease has shown some year-to-year volatility. He posted a below-average ERA as recently as 2023.

If you were in Preller’s shoes and needed to free up some payroll space to address various holes on the roster, how would you proceed with your coveted rotation duo? Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls San Diego Padres Dylan Cease Michael King

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Dodgers & Deferrals: A Misguided Focus

By Zack Scott | January 29, 2025 at 2:00pm CDT

Zack Scott, former Mets Acting GM and four-time champion with the Red Sox, empowers sports operations and individuals to win through Four Rings Sports Solutions. He specializes in data-driven strategies and leadership development. His Sports Ops Launchpad helps aspiring sports ops pros break into the industry. Connect with him on LinkedIn here.  Zack will be contributing periodically to MLB Trade Rumors. 

The Dodgers aren’t ruining baseball with massive salary deferrals. They may be causing a perception issue for MLB, but focusing on deferrals for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement would be a misguided effort—a political gesture that won’t address the core competitive balance issues.

Deferrals serve two primary purposes: helping teams close deals and giving players a big headline to validate their market value and boost their status. They’re not a circumvention tool around the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) rules. Spending power, not contract structure, drives baseball’s economic landscape. Teams with greater resources have always been able to outspend smaller-market teams. This dynamic is inherent in leagues without hard salary caps.

Over the past five years, the Dodgers have become a lightning rod for fan discontent by deferring over $1B to acquire many star players. Shohei Ohtani’s $680MM deferred salary is an extreme example, but their long-term contracts consistently feature deferrals.

Let’s consider a hypothetical scenario: What if deferrals were prohibited? Would the Dodgers still have offered Ohtani a $700MM contract? It’s highly unlikely. A league where deferrals are banned wouldn’t change the Dodgers’ desire to acquire Ohtani, but it would necessitate a different contract structure. Guaranteed dollar amounts would likely align more with the present value calculations we observe in current MLB contracts.

Ohtani’s contract (97% deferred) calculates to a $460MM present value using MLB’s 4.43% discount rate. This figure makes sense in historical context, as it surpassed Trout’s $426.5MM (no deferrals), which stood as the highest for nearly five years. However, it’s crucial to understand the discount rate’s role in these calculations. MLB uses a conservative rate, which limits the CBT benefits for teams.

This standardized rate doesn’t reflect team owners’ financial realities. Many owners, especially those directly connected to global investment firms, achieve significantly higher returns. Consider Guggenheim’s Mark Walter, the Dodgers’ owner, whose firm has generated approximately 10% average annual returns, or Point72’s Steve Cohen, the Mets’ owner, with around 14% average annual returns. The present value drops significantly if we apply these more realistic discount rates to Ohtani’s deferred contract.

Using Walter’s rate, the present value would be approximately $282MM. Using Cohen’s rate, it would be even lower, around $203MM. This substantial difference reveals that the perceived CBT advantages from deferrals are less significant than they initially seem. Although deferrals offer teams greater financial flexibility in managing cash flow, their present value is inflated by the conservative discount rate used for CBT calculations.

While the CBT benefits from deferrals may be overstated, they carry inherent long-term risks. Revenue declines or ownership changes could jeopardize those large future payments. However, the Dodgers’ deep pockets mitigate these risks. Guggenheim’s returns suggest they’re well-positioned to meet these obligations. Commissioner Manfred cited the early 2000s Diamondbacks as a cautionary tale. Still, Arizona’s spending outpaced revenue, and their ownership was less diversified than the current Dodgers group, making a similar outcome unlikely. LA’s bet on continued financial success is reasonable.

My experience negotiating MLB contracts in large markets has shown that various contract structures can be critical to reaching agreements. We used salary escalators, signing bonuses, player opt-outs, and, yes, those evil deferrals. When I was with the Mets, we signed Francisco Lindor to a $341MM contract, including $50MM in deferrals and a $21MM signing bonus. While the deferrals didn’t drastically alter our CBT payroll, they were instrumental in reaching a “magic number” for Lindor, pushing him $1MM over Fernando Tatis Jr. to secure the headline highest-paid shortstop.

The “magic number” concept is crucial in player negotiations. It represents the minimum financial threshold a player is willing to accept to validate their market value and status. These numbers are rarely explicitly stated, as agents are more likely to present significantly higher buy-it-now prices and counteroffers. Effective negotiation requires understanding the underlying motivations behind this elusive target. Athletes at this level are incredibly competitive, so their reasons for setting their sights on a particular “magic number” differ from the typical fan.

Perhaps they’re motivated to be the highest paid at their position, to push the market forward to benefit the union, or maybe it’s a number that just feels better (e.g., $2MM vs. $1.95MM). Sometimes, the gap between the player’s “magic number” and the team’s offer is too wide to bridge. However, in other cases, creative contract structures, including deferrals, can be the key to finding common ground. If this flexibility didn’t exist, reaching those critical “magic numbers” would become significantly more challenging. This could lead to longer, more drawn-out negotiations—a scenario that already frustrates many baseball fans.

Mookie Betts’ contract with the Dodgers offers another compelling example. He signed a $365MM deal with $115MM deferred. While the headline figure was impressive (second largest contract behind Trout!), the present value was $307MM, placing it below a few additional contracts (Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gerrit Cole). This structure allowed the Dodgers to acquire a star player while satisfying Mookie and his agent’s desire to be seen as a top-two player. In Boston, we had tried to re-sign Betts, but our self-imposed $300MM limit wasn’t enough to meet this desire. A similar deferral structure to the Dodgers’ deal might have changed the outcome.

The Dodgers and other marquee franchises play an essential role in baseball. People are fascinated by greatness and love to root for or against the best, whether it’s Mahomes’ Chiefs, Jordan’s Bulls, Jeter’s Yankees, or Ken Jennings’ Jeopardy. Baseball’s “Goliaths,” as Scott Boras calls them, drive higher interest and TV ratings, ultimately benefiting all MLB teams. While fans of smaller-market teams may express frustration over the financial disparities, eliminating deferrals won’t solve their economic concerns.

The Dodgers are drawing all the attention because they added so many big names over the last five years. This is due to several factors: their superior financial resources, their ability to optimize player performance, their winning culture, and their West Coast location, which is a significant draw for Japanese players. These factors have raised their villain status, and that’s good for baseball. But along with that comes more noise, including misplaced outcries about deferrals.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals

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Poll: Will The Cardinals Be Able To Trade Nolan Arenado?

By Nick Deeds | January 29, 2025 at 12:21pm CDT

One of the biggest storylines of the offseason has been the Cardinals’ to this point unsuccessful attempts at moving veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. As the club scales back its payroll and focuses on youth, both the Cardinals and Arenado himself have expressed a desire to move on this winter. In theory, moving an eight-time All-Star who’s just two seasons removed from being an MVP finalist should not be an especially difficult task, but a confluence of factors has made things very complicated for St. Louis’s front office.

The most obvious limiting factor at play is Arenado’s hefty contract. The infielder is due $74MM over the next three seasons, and even with the Rockies poised to pitch in $10MM as a condition of the trade that sent him to St. Louis in the first place, it’s hard to imagine a number of smaller or even mid-market clubs being able to stomach the majority of that salary. Even for clubs who can afford to pay Arenado, it would be understandable if there was some level of pause about committing that much money to a hitter coming off a .272/.325/.394 slash line that was essentially league average (102 wRC+). Arenado’s glove is still enough to make him a roughly three-win player even with his diminished offensive numbers but the division rival Cubs’ difficulties in finding a trade partner when looking to move Cody Bellinger this winter show how depressed the market can become for a three-win player who’s making more than they would fetch on the open market.

Things are further complicated by Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he’s appeared to be very comfortable wielding in order to direct the Cardinals’ negotiation efforts towards clubs he wants to join. Arenado blocked a trade to the Astros in mid-December despite previous belief that he would approve a trade to Houston, in large part because he wanted to see how the club would fortify the roster after trading away Kyle Tucker. That decision to wait and see what was next for Houston backfired, as they pivoted towards signing Christian Walker in a move that likely closed the door on Arenado joining the Astros.

Since the deal with the Astros fell through, the market for Arenado’s services has been exceptionally quiet, with the Cardinals beginning to entertain the possibility that Arenado might be in camp for the start of Spring Training or even still be in the club’s starting lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees reportedly tried to convince the Cardinals to do a swap that would’ve sent Arenado to the Bronx and right-hander Marcus Stroman to the St. Louis, but the Cardinals dismissed that offer without even presenting it to Arenado due to a lack of interest in adding Stroman to the fold. It’s hardly a surprise that they wouldn’t want to take on Stroman and is $18.5MM salary for 2025, but that decision only serves to highlight the financial difficulties the Cardinals face in attempting to move their third baseman.

Even as a trade of Arenado has become less likely as the calendar has flipped to 2025, there are at least some reasons for optimism. Arenado has reportedly become more open-minded about what clubs he would approve a trade to in recent weeks, which could theoretically inspire renewed efforts from clubs like the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers who have some level of interest in him but initially believed that Arenado would block any trade they worked out with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have indicated that they wouldn’t necessarily need to cut payroll elsewhere if Arenado remains with the club in 2025. It’s at least theoretically possible that’s simply a negotiation tactic, but if the Cardinals are truly not operating under a mandate to cut payroll to a specific level, then perhaps they’ll be more willing to chip in cash to help pay down Arenado’s salary or accept another underwater contract as part of the return.

One obvious catalyst that could spur Arenado talks back to the forefront of the hot stove would be Alex Bregman finding a new home in free agency. Bregman entered the winter ranked as the #3 free agent overall and the top available infielder according to MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but he’s found a relatively quiet market to his point in the winter. The Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all known to be involved in Bregman’s market to this point on at least some level. While trading Arenado to a division rival like the Cubs is nearly impossible to imagine, the Astros have already moved on, and Toronto may not be competitive enough to satisfy the veteran. The interest is mutual in at least the case of the Red Sox, who currently figure to start Arenado’s longtime Rockies teammate Trevor Story at shortstop on a regular basis this year. If Bregman were to come to a decision, and especially one that saw him end up in Houston, Chicago, or Toronto, it’s easy to imagine Arenado’s market picking up more significantly.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Arenado be in another uniform before Opening Day? And if so, will a deal get done before he’s scheduled to report to the Cardinals for Spring Training on February 17? Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls St. Louis Cardinals Nolan Arenado

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Poll: The Mariners’ Dilemma In Dealing From The Rotation

By Nick Deeds | January 28, 2025 at 2:35pm CDT

If there’s one standout trait about the Mariners headed in 2025, it’s their elite rotation; Seattle has the most impressive collection of young, cost-controlled starting pitching talent in the majors right now. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo combined for more than 700 innings of 3.18 ERA baseball in 2024. Gilbert, who turns 28 in May, is the oldest of the group and the quartet has a combined 17 seasons of team control remaining.

That crop of talented young starters is the envy of the rest of the league, but if there’s a second standout trait about the 2025 Mariners it’s their questionable offense. Cal Raleigh is among the best offensive catchers in the game, but the lineup offers little certainty outside of him. Julio Rodriguez has superstar upside but didn’t show it for much of last year as he entered July hitting just .247/.297/.327. Randy Arozarena managed an excellent 11.7% walk rate down the stretch after being traded to the Mariners midseason, but hit just five home runs in 54 games and was worth just 1.9 fWAR overall last year between his time in Seattle and Tampa.

The trio of Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Arozarena all project to be above average hitters in 2025, but the rest of the lineup is well below average. Victor Robles enjoyed a career year after joining the Mariners midseason last year, but his elite performance in Seattle was carried by a .388 BABIP. Between that extreme good fortune with batted ball luck and his career .236/.311/.356 (81 wRC+) slash line prior to joining the Mariners, it’s hard to expect more than league average production from Robles in 2025. Dylan Moore and Luke Raley both posted solid numbers in 2025 but are platoon players who can’t be relied on in everyday roles, while J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver were all well below average hitters in 2024.

The club’s only addition to the offense to this point has been Donovan Solano, who posted solid numbers in 2024 but figures to join Moore and Raley as another part-time player. A combination of Moore, Raley, and Solano seem likely to be capable of handling first and second base, but the club’s lineup still has a gaping hole at the hot corner after non-tendering Josh Rojas and declining Jorge Polanco’s club option. MLBTR explored the third base market as it pertains to the Mariners earlier this month, but none of the free agent options that fit their budget and lower-level trade candidates available are particularly inspiring.

The Mariners have been hesitant to trade from their excellent rotation, only reluctantly listening to offers on pricey veteran Luis Castillo and seemingly shutting down discussions regarding their young core of arms entirely. But shopping a cost-controlled, elite starting pitcher could open up new possibilities for the club to add impact talent that wouldn’t have been available otherwise. The Red Sox reportedly dangled an impact youngster in first baseman Triston Casas in exchange for either Miller or Woo earlier this winter, and it’s easy to imagine rotation-needy clubs offering similarly impactful talent in exchange for a young arm of that caliber.

Dangling Gilbert or Kirby would surely land the Mariners an even more enticing package in exchange given their solid track records of front-of-the-rotation work in the majors to this point. The Orioles, for example, have a deep group of positional talent but are in need of an impact starter. It’s not impossible to imagine Baltimore being willing to part with an established young talent like Jordan Westburg as the headliner in a package for someone like Gilbert, perhaps packaged with a less impactful cost-controlled arm like Dean Kremer to ease the blow to Seattle’s rotation.

Turning away from the Orioles, Mark Vientos of the Mets and Matt McLain of the Reds are among the other high-end, cost-controlled third basemen who the Mariners could theoretically seek as a headliner in a package for one of their top starters, though neither is quite as valuable as Westburg. Of course, such deals are easier to propose than actually execute. While a team like Cincinnati packaging McLain with one of their own rotation arms like Nick Lodolo in order to land an elite talent like Gilbert could make sense on paper, the injury history of both players could give the Mariners plenty of pause about giving up one of their most valuable assets for little in the way of certainty and the Reds may be equally hesitant to offer up two established players with All-Star upside in exchange for one.

That’s just one example, of course, but it’s equally difficult to imagine the Mariners lining up on the right trade package for a player as valuable as Gilbert or Kirby with the vast majority of rival clubs. High-end, cost-controlled starting pitching is the single most desirable asset in the sport, and while fans of rival teams have long dreamed of their GM working out a trade with Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to bring one of the Mariners’ young aces to town they’d surely start feeling queasy about the possibility upon seeing just how much their team would need to part with in order to land such a coveted talent.

If you were in the Mariners’ shoes, how would you approach the situation? Would you take the same course Dipoto has and simply refuse to seriously entertain offers for your elite group of young pitchers, looking to upgrade the team in other ways like by dealing Castillo? Would you listen to offers while holding firm on a high asking price? Or would you compromise on the value of one of your top assets in order to help bolster an offense in desperate need of impact? Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Seattle Mariners Bryan Woo Bryce Miller George Kirby Logan Gilbert

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