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Poll: Circumventing The Luxury Tax

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Rumors of a long-term contract extension between the Red Sox and Adrian Gonzalez were made a reality yesterday, when the first baseman agreed to a seven-year, $154MM deal. While Gonzalez’s surgically repaired shoulder was a legitimate concern, there’s some belief that Boston waiting until after Opening Day to announce the deal to avoid a competitive balance (a.k.a. luxury) tax penalty. The same was true of Josh Beckett’s extension last year.

The Red Sox aren’t breaking the rules here, in fact they deserve credit for finding a creative way to save money. But as Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports mentioned yesterday, “the spirit of the [luxury tax] isn’t being honored here.” He wonders if the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement will push the deadline back to avoid such shenanigans. Between the Gonzalez and Clay Buchholz extension, the Sox have saved upwards of $10MM against the tax this year by announcing the deals after the season started.

Of course the luxury tax only impacts a handful of teams, so altering a rule that effects only a small number of clubs may be unfair. As Cork Gaines showed at Business Insider recently, the Yankees have been paying the tax every year since it’s been in place, with the Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers all contributing at some point as well. The luxury tax is based on the annual average value of the contract, and the 25% of the money goes to the “industry growth fund” while the remaining 75% is used to fund player benefits.

Poll: Manny Ramirez & The Hall Of Fame

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It was quite a shock when Major League Baseball abruptly announced the retirement of Manny Ramirez yesterday, and by now you know the circumstances of his decision. Manny tested positive for a banned substance and instead of going through the appeal and suspension processes, he called it quits. It was his second positive test, so he would have faced a 100-game suspension.

Ramirez’s career started in 1993, though he wasn’t a full-time player until 1995. He’s a .312/.411/.585 career hitter with 555 homers and 1,831 RBI. His six-year peak from 1999-2004 (ages 27-32) featured a .327/.428/.633 batting line and a 168 OPS+. Although he never won an MVP, Manny has four top-four finishes in the voting and nine top-ten finishes. He was a 12-time All-Star, a two-time Hank Aaron Award winner (given to the top hitter in the league as voted on by the fans), and the MVP of the 2004 World Series. 

As a player, Ramiez’s Hall of Fame credentials are undeniable. He was no worse than one of the five best hitters of his generation, having enough of an impact with the bat to negate his poor defense. But he’s also the only big leaguer to ever test positive for banned substances on two occasions, putting some of his accomplishments in question. We have to look no further than Mark McGwire to see how the Hall of Fame voters feel about banned substances, but what about you?

Poll: Will Blue Jays Trade Aaron Hill?

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Yesterday, the Blue Jays declined to exercise their options for Aaron Hill's 2012-2014 seasons.  While they will still be able to pick up the 29-year-old's options for '12 and '13, the decision could reflect the club's uncertainty regarding Hill's long-term future in Toronto.  After churning out a .286/.330/.499 slash line with 36 homers in 2009, Hill saw his OPS drop more than 150 points and his HR total dip to 26 in 2010.

Even if the Blue Jays aren't high on Hill at the moment, one has to think that the second baseman could attract plenty of interest if he shows flashes of his old form in 2011.  After this season, Hill can be retained for $8MM in 2012 or, for $16MM, kept through 2013.  While that's not exactly chump change, it's not an exorbitant price to pay if Hill can bring a 5.4 WAR to the table like he did in '09.

Do you envision GM Alex Anthopoulos flipping Hill to another club before this season is through?

Poll: Is Carlos Silva Tradeable?

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Earlier today, the Cubs notified Carlos Silva that they will look to trade him after anointing Andrew Cashner as the fifth starter.  The club also asked the right-hander to consider a stint in the minors if GM Jim Hendry is unable to move him.  Silva was less-than-thrilled with that decision, telling the press that there is "no chance" that he would report to the team's Iowa affiliate.  The soon-to-be 32-year-old also had some harsh words for pitching coach Mark Riggins.

Silva has struggled this spring (for what it's worth) and is owed $11.5MM in 2011.  Count SI's Jon Heyman (Twitter links) among those who think that the Cubs won't be able to unload Silva for anything of value.  In fact, Heyman jokes that if Hendry can get a decent prospect and save 10% of the money owed to Silva in a deal, he should be given a five-year contract extension.

Even though Silva ultimately fizzled out in 2010, the hurler showed glimpses of his former self in the first half of the season.  Neither the clubs nor his next club will have to pick up the entirety of his $11.5MM deal as the M's are on the hook for $5.5MM of that.

Are the Cubs completely handcuffed here or will they be able to find a worthwhile deal for the veteran?

Poll: Neftali Feliz’s 2011 Role

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The extended experiment may be coming to an end. The Rangers seem likely to return Neftali Feliz to the bullpen for the 2011 season and end his spring stint as a starter.

The 22-year-old was last year's AL Rookie of the Year as the Rangers closer, when he saved 40 games and posted a 2.73 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 69 1/3 innings. Given those results, the Rangers' lack of shutdown relievers besides Feliz and their manager's desire for a proven closer, it's easy to see why the Rangers would return Feliz to the 'pen for at least one more year.

On the other hand, elite starters are harder to come by than elite relievers and they're on the mound for three times as many innings as most closers. Feliz's secondary offerings may not be finely tuned, but it stands to reason that they won't get any sharper if he's only pitching one inning at a time. You can make the argument that the Rangers should use Feliz as a starter and make do with their current bullpen or trade for an extra reliever.

What role would you assign Feliz for 2011 if you were in GM Jon Daniels' position?

Poll: Which Non-Tender Will Provide Biggest Benefit?

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Every year players are non-tendered for many reasons; perhaps they’re injured, have grown too expensive, or just simply aren’t performing well. Whatever the case, these players add sometimes unexpected options to the free agent market and often yield bargain results.

Kelly Johnson has to be figured as the prize of last offseason’s non-tender crop. The Braves decided to cut the then 27-year-old loose, and he rewarded the Diamondbacks with a .284/.370/.486 line. Johnson belted 26 home runs, swiped 13 bags, played nearly 1300 innings of strong defense, and totaled 6 WAR according to Fangraphs — all for $2.35MM.

Let’s not forget Mike Rizzo’s dealings either. The Nats’ GM signed Matt Capps for just $3.5MM and flipped him to the Twins at the deadline to receive Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa. Ramos was ranked as the Twins’ #4 prospect and the game’s #58 prospect entering the 2010 season. Not a bad ROI for a low-risk move on Rizzo’s part.

According to MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker, 52 players were non-tendered this year. Some of the more interesting cases include Bobby Jenks (now in Boston), Russell Martin (now a Yankee), Joel Peralta (now a Ray), Jack Cust (now a Mariner), Dustin Moseley (now a Padre), and George Sherrill (now a Brave). All six of these players saw either strong 2010 seasons or have experienced success at the Major League level. Looking at this season and beyond, let’s pose the question:

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Poll: Chris Carpenter’s Future

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The month of February hasn’t been kind to the Cardinals. First they failed to reach an agreement with Albert Pujols on a long-term contract, then they lost Nick Punto for up to 12 weeks with a hernia, and then they lost Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery. That’s enough bad news to last St. Louis the season, nevermind Spring Training.

In the wake of Wainwright’s injury, it’s been speculated that Chris Carpenter could become available in a trade at some point should the Cardinals fall out of contention. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Carpenter wouldn’t stand in the way of a deal (he can veto any trade thanks to his ten-and-five rights), and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggested the right-hander could be a fit for the pitching-starved Yankees.

As great as Carpenter is, he’s neither young nor cheap. He’ll turn 36 in April and his contract guarantees him $15MM this season, after which a $15MM club option ($1MM buyout) comes into play. With Pujols’ impending free agency hanging over their heads and two more seasons until Kyle Lohse’s $12.2MM annual salary comes off the books, it’s possible the Cardinals will look to shed Carpenter’s salary and use that money towards keeping their superstar first baseman. It’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the nine-figure contract Pujols will command, but every little bit helps.

Carpenter has pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 52.7% ground ball rate since coming back from Tommy John surgery in late 2008. He’s shown no ill-effects from the procedure, throwing at least 192 innings in each of the last two seasons. If made available, teams would be lining up to acquire him, and not just the Yankees either. However, it’s possible that Carpenter would want his 2012 option picked up in exchange for agreeing to a trade, which could his limit market.

It seems unlikely that St. Louis would look to trade pitching – quality pitching at that – after Wainwright’s injury, but moving Carpenter would have to at least be considered if they fall out of contention at some point. The potential return in the form of young players and cash savings could be too good to pass up.

Poll: Best Move Of The Offseason

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Pitchers and position players have poured into camps spread across Florida and Arizona this week, officially bringing an end to the 2010-2011 offseason. We saw several monster free agent contracts handed out this winter and quite a few blockbuster trades, perhaps more than we’re accustomed too. Multiyear contracts buying out arbitration and free agent years also increased in popularity.

Our Transaction Tracker shows every move completed this offseason, whether it be a trade, free agent signing, contract extension, or even a waiver claim. Some clubs improved by leaps and bounds, others made small, incremental steps. Everyone is in first place today, and we’re still about five weeks from seeing these moves actually impact the standings. That’s never stopped us from judging them though…

Poll: Jose Bautista’s Extension

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Jose Bautista, an unlikely home run champion if there ever was one, signed a five-year, $64MM extension yesterday. The Blue Jays are hoping that the 30-year-old's breakout season (.260/.378/.617 line, 54 homers) is a sign that Bautista has transformed himself as a hitter. The skeptics, however, are not convinced that one year of elite production warrants a $64MM commitment.

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has earned the benefit of the doubt, if you ask ESPN.com's Buster Olney. But Olney says he probably would have traded Bautista if any team "dangled an acceptable package" and let another organization risk its money.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, who wasn't sure about the deal initially, says he likes the extension the more he considers it. Bautista has unusually good control of the strike zone and can still be one of baseball's most productive hitters if his power drops off, according to Cameron.

Anthopoulos told MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm that he believes in Bautista and is willing to take a calculated risk on him. Would you have done the same thing?

Poll: Kevin Millwood’s Next Team

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Yesterday we learned that the Yankees are still considering Kevin Millwood to help round out their rotation.  The Bombers might feel compelled to boost their starting five, even after bringing Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon aboard recently.  They could also afford the veteran’s $4-5MM price tag – something that other clubs are hesitant over.

The Indians have long been linked to Millwood but would prefer to bring someone in on a minor league deal.  A $4-5MM deal would be too rich for their blood but as time passes one has to wonder if the right-hander’s camp might be willing to take less.  The 36-year-old also hasn’t ruled out a return to Baltimore and MLBTR’s Ben Nicholson-Smith recently wrote that it would make sense for teams like the Royals, Rockies, and Mariners to join the fray.

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