MLBTR Polls

Nine-figure contracts are becoming more commonplace in baseball and yet teams still can't buy certainty, no matter how large the investment.  For every Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez or Albert Pujols (on his original seven-year, $100MM deal with St. Louis) who more than lived up their contracts, there's a Mike Hampton, Vernon Wells or Johan Santana whose huge salaries became an albatross on their teams' payroll.

This offseason saw five new members join the $100MM club…

• Zack Greinke signed the offseason's biggest free agent contract, a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers.
• Despite some concerns about his age, injury history and off-the-field issues, Josh Hamilton received a five-year, $125MM contract from the Angels.
• The Mets kept their captain in the fold by signing David Wright to a seven-year, $122MM extension.
• More surprisingly, the Rays similarly locked up their franchise third baseman by exercising their last three option years on Evan Longoria's contract and adding six more years to the deal, making it a total of nine years and $136MM.
• Felix Hernandez signed the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, agreeing to a seven-year, $175MM extension with the Mariners.

It's an intriguing collection of both pitchers and position players of different ages and stages of their career.  It's also quite the mix of win-now and semi-rebuilding teams in big, medium and small markets taking the risk on these massive contracts.  It's also fair to say that even if a player doesn't live up his salary over the entire length (or even a year or two) of a $100MM+ contract, a team might still consider it a good investment if they win a World Series or two over the course of the deal — call it the Barry Zito loophole.  It's hard to look five or ten years into the future but all things considered, which of these five deals stands the best chance of being looked back on as a "win" by the team in question? 

Most teams re-build over the course of multiple years, but it’s possible for teams to improve dramatically from one season to the next. The Orioles and Athletics increased their win totals by at least 20 games from 2011 to 2012, surprising many on their way to berths in the American League playoffs. One year later, it’s time for some of last year’s worst teams to dream about contending.

Seven teams won fewer than 70 games in 2012, the Marlins, Cubs, Astros, Rockies, Red Sox, Indians and Twins. While clubs like the Marlins and Astros are expected to continue struggling at the MLB level, other teams, like the Cubs, Red Sox and Indians, made aggressive moves during the offseason. Which club has the best chance of rebounding from a disappointing 2012 showing and contending for the postseason in 2013?

Two years ago nine teams reached the 90-win plateau: the Tigers, Brewers, Rangers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox and Cardinals. Just three of those teams repeated as 90-game winners in 2012 and just four of them made the postseason. To put it mildly, winning 90 games multiple seasons in a row is really difficult.

Once again there were nine 90-win teams in 2012: the Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Athletics, Rangers, Nationals, Braves, Reds and Giants. Chances are some of these teams will regress in 2013. Sustained success requires shrewd moves and good health, an elusive combination for many organizations. Which of these 2012 contenders is most likely to struggle in 2013?

With the start of Spring Training mere days away, teams are close to having their rosters in place that they plan to take to either Florida or Arizona for the next month and a half. Clubs have spent the past few months bringing in new players through free agency and trade in hopes of putting together a squad worthy of playing meaningful baseball come October.

While many teams added a key pitcher or slugger to man the hot corner, others failed to replace departing players or make necessary upgrades around the diamond. Merely re-signing a player or two may not have been enough when teams like the Blue Jays and Dodgers made multiple additions to their respective rosters over the course of the winter. The question becomes which team has had the most disappointing offseason thus far.

After reaching the World Series two seasons in a row, the Rangers suffered a setback in 2012 when they failed to advance past the Orioles in the AL Wild Card game. The expectations remain the same for 2013 as the organization has its goals set on taking home a ring for the first time in franchise history, even as the roster looks different entering spring training. From losing lineup mainstays to missing out on top free agents, the question becomes whether Texas did enough to address holes in the lineup and on the pitching staff.

A look at the Rangers’ lineup reveals the absence of familiar names including Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton and Michael Young. The loss of Napoli to the Red Sox may have been a win for the Rangers as the slugger went from securing a multi-year deal to eventually signing a one-year contract due to health concerns. With fewer playing opportunities each season due to the emergence of young talent, Young was sent to the Phillies where he’ll have the opportunity to be in the lineup on a more consistent basis. Hamilton headed to the West Coast when the Angels offered him a contract that the Rangers were not comfortable matching.

While Texas was unable to replace its big bats with the likes of Justin Upton or Carlos Gonzalez, the front office did make two moves that should bring stability to the lineup. The team was able to bolster the catching position by signing veteran A.J. Pierzynski and add depth at designated hitter with the addition of Lance Berkman. 

Pitching concerns for Texas stem more from who the team was unable to sign rather than retain. The organization had hoped to win the services of Zack Greinke but ultimately lost out to the Dodgers. While the Rangers were unable to add pieces from the free agent pool, they did commit long-term to starter Matt Harrison with a five-year, $55MM contract. Beyond the rotation, Texas signed Joakim Soria to add depth to the bullpen.

On New Year’s Eve, seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents watched the ball drop without knowing where they would be playing in 2013.  Since then, Adam LaRoche (No. 15, Nationals), Rafael Soriano (No. 17, Nationals), and Shaun Marcum (No. 19, Mets) have all signed, leaving four still out there on the open market.

Michael Bourn (No. 3) is the top remaining free agent and his situation isn’t a whole lot clearer than it was a month ago.  The center fielder is tied to draft pick compensation and teams aren’t wild about giving up their first round choice for the right to give Bourn a lucrative deal.  The Mets could appeal to MLB to argue that they shouldn’t have to sacrifice their No. 11 pick, but one has to wonder if the cost-conscious club is ready to spend that much anyway.  The Mariners have also been linked to the outfielder but we haven’t seen a ton of movement on that front lately.

Kyle Lohse (No. 10) has also seen his stock fall thanks to the issue of draft pick compensation.  No one seems willing to go beyond two years for Lohse, despite his exceptionally strong work across the last two seasons.  The O’s will be in if the veteran’s price drops significantly and the Brewers won’t rule it out, but the Angels aren’t expected to chase him and the Cardinals continue to say that a reunion is very unlikely.

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun heard earlier this week that Joe Saunders (No. 25) was offered a two-year, $15MM deal from a club, though those sources aren’t directly in on the talks.  If the offer is legitimate, however, it isn’t from the Orioles, who are only interested in a one-year deal with an option for year two.  The Twins are also keen on a one-year pact and the Mariners are also known to be interested.

Jose Valverde (No. 44) likely saw his market pick up after fellow Scott Boras client Soriano signed with the Nationals.  Early on, the Tigers decided that they wouldn’t have him back and things were quiet for the 34-year-old for quite some time.   This week, however, we learned that the Mets are pursuing Valverde.