Mets Interested In Jake Arrieta, James Paxton
The Mets attended Jake Arrieta‘s recent workout for MLB clubs, and the two sides have had discussions about a potential contract in the weeks since that outing, per SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). Martino notes that there’s no sense a deal is close and adds that lefty James Paxton is also of some interest to the Mets.
Both Arrieta and Paxton are repped by the Boras Corporation, so talks regarding the team’s interest in the pair are largely streamlined. Arrieta and Paxton aren’t free agents at ideal times, but they do represent a couple of the most established arms available on a shrinking market that lost No. 1 option Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers last week. The Mets were finalists for Bauer, and though they’re not going to acquire anyone of his caliber at this stage (barring an unexpected blockbuster trade), they remain on the hunt for starting help.
The Mets’ rotation has undergone a few noteworthy changes already since the offseason started. They brought back Marcus Stroman for the $18.9MM qualifying offer after he sat out all of last year over health concerns. The club also acquired Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland in the Francisco Liriano trade, while it dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays and brought in a potential replacement in Joey Lucchesi as part of a three-way swap with the Padres and Pirates.
Stroman, Carrasco, Lucchesi and David Peterson currently look like the favorites to back superstar Jacob deGrom in New York’s rotation when the season opens. If signed, though, Arrieta or Paxton would appear to be in line for a back-end spot. Arrieta’s a former NL Cy Young winner, though the soon-to-be 35-year-old posted a rough 5.08 ERA/4.83 SIERA combination in 44 1/3 innings with the division-rival Phillies last year.
Paxton has frequently dealt with injury issues during what has otherwise been a solid career, and he pitched just 20 1/3 frames as a Yankee in 2020 because of back and arm troubles. When the 32-year-old did take the mound, he limped to a 6.64 ERA and saw his average fastball drop from 95 mph-plus to a little over 92, though Paxton did log a respectable 3.88 SIERA. He also continued to generate strikeouts at a high clip, as his 28.9 percent K rate checked in well above the league average of 23.4.
NL Notes: Turner, Mets, Cubs, Reds, Pirates
The Mets are interested in free-agent third baseman Justin Turner, though the two sides aren’t seeing eye to eye on either contract length or value, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s quite unlikely the two will bridge the gap, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Turner has at least four teams after him, but as Rosenthal notes, the Dodgers – his longtime club – remain the favorites to sign him. A Mets deal would be interesting, though, as they let Turner go after he spent 2011-13 with them. The 36-year-old has since blossomed into a star with the Dodgers.
Now for a few items from around the National League Central…
- The Cubs are planning on discussing contract extensions with some of their important veterans during spring training, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer revealed (via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago). It’s “almost” certain they’ll talk new deals with first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Baez, Wittenmyer reports, though it’s unclear whether the Cubs will make a spirited effort to retain third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant for the long haul. All three players are only under team for one more season. Bryant has been part of plenty rumors in recent weeks, so he seems the most likely of the trio to be part of a trade.
- Reds general manager Nick Krall said right-hander Lucas Sims would be “delayed” heading into 2021 because of elbow tightness, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. However, Sims tweeted Monday that he’ll be ready for opening day. That’s welcome news for the Reds, as the 26-year-old Sims turned in a quality season out of their bullpen in 2020. He threw 25 2/3 innings of 2.45 ERA/3.34 SIERA ball with a well-above-average strikeout rate of 33 percent. Sims also averaged a career-best 94 mph on his fastball.
- Although he was involved in a car crash that took three lives in his native Dominican Republic in September, Pirates infield prospect Oneil Cruz should be with the club for the start of spring training, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. “We are not aware of anything that should prevent him from being on time at this point,” a team spokesperson said.
Mets To Sign Albert Almora
Feb. 9: Almora’s deal comes with a $1.25MM base salary that can be increased via incentives, tweets Heyman.
Feb. 7: The Mets are in agreement on a contract with free agent outfielder Albert Almora Jr., pending a physical, report Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of the Athletic (Twitter link). It is expected to be a major league, incentive-laden deal for the Magnus Sports client, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
Selected sixth overall in the 2012 draft by the Cubs out of a Florida high school, Almora had previously spent his entire career in the Chicago organization. Well-regarded as a prospect for his defensive acumen in center field, Almora broke into the majors midway through the Cubs’ World Series winning 2016 season. Over his first year-plus as a big leaguer, he looked to be establishing himself as another long-term core piece for Chicago. Between 2016-17, Almora was roughly a league average hitter. Combined with his glove in center, he at least seemed to be establishing himself as a solid regular.
Unfortunately, Almora’s offense has fallen since then. In 2018, he hit .286/.323/.378 with just five home runs over 479 plate appearances. While he made plenty of contact and hit for a high batting average, Almora’s overall offensive value was rather limited to his lack of power and meager 5.0% walk rate. Unfortunately, that drop-off at the plate continued, as he stumbled to a .236/.271/.381 line over 363 plate appearances in 2019. Almora spent most of last season at the Cubs’ alternate training site, starting just six regular-season games and being left off the roster for their playoff series against the Marlins. Chicago unsurprisingly non-tendered him after the season.
Even coming off a few poor years, it’s easy to see why the Mets were interested in bringing Almora in on what’s surely a low-cost deal. Advanced defensive metrics are divided on the extent of Almora’s impact with the glove, but they all agree he’s at least a solid center fielder. Over 2,612.1 career innings at the position, Almora has rated as six runs better than average, in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. Statcast’s range-based metric is more bullish, crediting Almora with fourteen plays above average. Ultimate Zone Rating, meanwhile, has rated him as closer to a break-even defender.
The Mets’ projected primary outfield of Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto is one of the better offensive groupings in the game but comes with obvious question marks in the field. Almora figures to serve as an oft-used defensive replacement at the end of games, perhaps bumping Nimmo to a corner and moving Smith off the grass when New York is protecting a late lead. A right-handed hitter, Almora also offers an obvious complement to the left-handed bats of Smith, Nimmo and Conforto. Guillermo Heredia is already on hand as a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder, but Almora offers a bit more upside in that role.
If Almora regains his footing at the plate, his stay in Queens could extend beyond next season. As a player with four-plus years of MLB service, Almora remains controllable via arbitration through the end of 2022.
Mets Sign Jonathan Villar
8:15am: Villar is guaranteed $3.55MM from the Mets, Heyman tweets. The contract contains additional incentives that can boost that salary.
8:02am: The Mets have agreed to a deal with infielder Jonathan Villar, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes hears the same, adding that it’s a one-year, Major League deal for the Wasserman client.
Over the weekend, Villar was reported to be in talks with the Reds about a contract, but it seems New York made a better offer to the former Astros, Brewers, Orioles, Marlins and Blue Jays speedster. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that Cincinnati’s efforts were likely focused on a minor league deal.
The Mets have a full infield and crowded outfield mix as well, but the fleet-footed Villar will likely give them a super-utility option who can bounce around the multiple spots on the diamond. While Villar spent the bulk of his career at shortstop and second base, he’s also logged action at third base, in center field and in left. The Marlins originally planned to use him as their primary center fielder last year when they acquired him from the Orioles, but the team’s early Covid-19 outbreak threw the roster into a state of chaos and landed Villar back in the infield.
The 2020 season was an ugly one for Villar, who underwhelmed in Miami before completely cratering in a 22-game stint with Toronto. Villar’s overall batting line last season checked in at a disastrous .232/.301/.292, but his track record prior to that showing was generally solid.
From 2015-19, Villar batted at a combined .269/.336/.423 with 70 homers and 167 steals in 2472 plate appearances. Villar was quite arguably the best player on a lousy Orioles roster in 2019 when he hit .274/.339/.453 with 24 home runs and 40 stolen bases.
There’s some clear power and speed upside with the switch-hitting Villar, and while he doesn’t play any one position particularly well, his ability to fill in at a variety of spots on the diamond only serves to further deepen a much-improved Mets roster in 2021. He’s also been a productive regular recently enough that one could envision him stepping into an everyday role and capably holding down the fort in the event of an injury to second baseman Jeff McNeil, shortstop Francisco Lindor or third baseman J.D. Davis. Villar joins Albert Almora Jr. and Jose Martinez on an increasingly veteran Mets bench.
Quick Hits: Mets, Bauer, KBO, Yang
In perhaps the least surprising “upset” of all-time, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became Super Bowl Champions last night. With the NFL season wrapped, we’re that much closer to baseball season. Here’s the latest from around the game…
- Mets Team President Sandy Alderson has never gotten as far along in negotiations with a free agent as he was with Trevor Bauer without consummating a deal, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Simply put: the Mets thought Bauer would be a New York Met. No term sheet was signed, however, and Bauer signed instead with the Dodgers. It was a tough few hours for the Mets, who went from believing they’d added the best free agent pitcher on the market one minute to not only losing Bauer, but seeing Marcell Ozuna re-sign with their division rival, all in the span of a few hours. On the one hand, the Mets would seem to have $40MM burning a whole in their pocket, leaving room for another significant addition. At the same time, there’s not another top free agent available that would warrant close to that kind of financial commitment.
- MLB checked on the status of KBO free agent Yang Hyeon-jon, per Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (via Twitter). Basically, Yoo explains, this means that there’s at least one team that has expressed interest in signing Yang. Looking ahead to his age-33 season, Yang has spent his entire career with the Kia Tigers of the KBO. The southpaw had a bit of a down year in 2020, 5.17 ERA across 172 1/3 innings with a 20.0 percent strikeout rate and 8.6 percent walk rate. With a 3.83 career ERA across 14 seasons, Yang could certainly be viewed as a rotation candidate, though he has made 101 career appearances out of the pen as well.
Latest On Mets, Jackie Bradley Jr.
3:45 pm: Even after today’s signing of Almora, the Mets haven’t closed the door on bringing in Bradley, hears Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (Twitter link).
12:18 pm: Jackie Bradley Jr. stands out as the clear top remaining free agent option for teams looking for a center fielder. It’s not surprising the defensive stalwart seems to be drawing decent interest as spring training approaches. “About a half-dozen teams” remain in the running for Bradley, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.
The Mets have been among the teams most often connected to Bradley this offseason. New York agreed to terms with center fielder Albert Almora Jr. this morning, though. While Puma writes that the Almora addition “doesn’t necessarily” foreclose the Mets from continuing to pursue Bradley, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News hears New York is indeed now out on the former Gold Glove winner.
That’s not to say the Almora signing ends the Mets’ offseason. Andy Martino of SNY reports that New York remains engaged in the market for free agent pitching and depth pieces on the position player side; they could yet make another addition (or additions) in the coming days, Martino says. Bradley, though, would’ve certainly been a more significant position player pickup than mere bench help. The 30-year-old is coming off a strong season and has apparently set the rather lofty goal of finding a contract of at least four years in length this winter.
Meanwhile, Buster Olney of ESPN relays speculation (Twitter link) from agents not affiliated with Bradley’s representatives at the Boras Corporation that the Astros, Giants and Red Sox appear his likeliest landing spots. All three teams have been connected to Bradley this offseason, although Olney wrote earlier this week that a return to Boston looked unlikely. That may still be the case, as a Red Sox reunion would seemingly only be in the cards if Bradley’s asking price falls due to an unfriendly market, Olney notes.
Details On Mets’ Offer To Trevor Bauer
The Mets were one of the two finalists in the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes, but the Cy Young-winning right-hander wound up spurning the club for the Dodgers’ three-year, $102MM guarantee Friday. The Mets made a very competitive offer, though, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that they proposed a deal worth $105MM over three years. New York would have paid Bauer $40MM in 2021, $35MM in 2022 and $30MM in 2023, and the contract would have included opt-out chances after the first two seasons, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that the Mets would have included $5MM had Bauer opted out after the second year.
Bauer’s Dodgers deal also features a pair of opt-outs, and it likely didn’t help the Mets’ cause that he is a Southern California native who said in the past he wanted to play in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are the reigning World Series champions, which further stacked the deck against a Mets club coming off four straight years without a playoff berth.
The Mets have made a real effort to change their fortunes this winter, largely because of new owner Steve Cohen. So far, the team has used trades and free agency to add Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, James McCann and Trevor May to its roster. A Bauer signing would have made the Mets even more imposing going into 2021, but they’ll have to either enter the season with the starters they have in place or acquire someone for a far less expensive salary.
FA News & Rumors: Puig, Phils, Mets, Dee, Soria
Despite sitting out all of last season, outfielder Yasiel Puig looks as if he could be an interesting and inexpensive pickup for someone this winter. The problem is that no one seems to be aggressively pursuing Puig. The Royals, Marlins and Yankees have all been connected to Puig in recent weeks, but none of them are going after him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Puig, who turned 30 in December, was a standout with the Dodgers earlier in his career, but he endured a mediocre 2019 between the Reds and Indians and sat on the open market for all of last year. While Puig did appear to have a deal with the Braves in the summer, that collapsed when he tested positive for COVID-19 in mid-July.
- The Phillies have shown interest in a pair of utility players – Marwin Gonzalez (previously reported) and Brad Miller – as well as outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, according to Heyman. The division-rival Mets are also considering Gonzalez, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relays. Gonzalez and Miller are fits just about anywhere because of their histories of combining respectable offense with defensive versatility, whereas the Phillies and other NL teams look like an imperfect match for Choo. Not only is he 38 years old, but Choo has struggled as a defender for most of his career.
- Four to five teams are in the mix for middle infielder/outfielder Dee Strange-Gordon, and he could make a decision on his next club by week’s end, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The Red Sox were interested in Strange-Gordon earlier this offseason, but they’re likely out of the running after signing fellow infielder/outfielder Enrique Hernandez, per Cotillo. The Reds are reportedly one of the teams in on the 32-year-old speedster, who’s a free agent at an inopportune time after three consecutive dismal seasons with the Mariners.
- Veteran reliever Joakim Soria agreed to join the Diamondbacks for a $3.5MM guarantee Wednesday, but he turned down bigger offers from elsewhere to do so, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The 36-year-old right-hander, a two-time All-Star who turned in his latest solid season with the Athletics in 2020, is in line to close for Arizona.
Arbitration Hearing Decisions: J.D. Davis, Choi, Santander
This year’s round of (virtual) arbitration hearings kicked off earlier this week. While a perhaps surprising number of players agreed to one-year deals to avoid arbitration last month rather than risk a hearing, we’ll still have a handful of cases heard by a three-person panel of arbitrators over the next couple of weeks. Some results from the first wave of hearings…
- Mets third baseman/outfielder J.D. Davis lost his arbitration hearing and will earn $2.1MM in 2021 rather than the $2.475MM at which he filed, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). The 27-year-old has proven to be a good find for the now-former front office regime, hitting .288/.370/.483 with 28 homers and 31 doubles through 682 plate appearances since debuting with the Mets. Davis figures to see action at third base and perhaps in left field again in 2021, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration three more times due to his status as a Super Two player.
- Rays first baseman Ji-Man Choi won an arbitration hearing against the club and will be paid $2.45MM in 2021, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The team had filed for a $1.85MM salary. Choi, 29, has spent the past three seasons with the Rays, batting a combined .257/.359/.461 with 30 homers, 45 doubles and three triples in 821 trips to the plate. He slashed .230/.331/.410 in 42 games last year and is controllable through 2023. Choi was one of two outstanding arbitration cases for the Rays — the other being left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, whose trial has not yet taken place.
- The Orioles won their arbitration hearing over outfielder Anthony Santander, tweets Feinsand. Santander, like Davis, filed at $2.475MM with his club countering at $2.1MM. He’ll earn the lesser of those two sums. The 26-year-old is a former Rule 5 pick who had a solid showing in 2019 before breaking out with a huge performance in 2020. This past season, Santander batted .261/.315/.575 with 11 homers and 13 doubles in just 165 plate appearances. On the whole, he’s given the O’s a .261/.302/.505 slash with 31 homers and 33 doubles in his past 570 plate appearances. There are some obvious OBP question marks, but the power has prompted teams to look at Santander as a possible trade option. He’s also a Super Two player and is controlled through 2024.
Mets Reportedly Set Deadline For Bauer To Decide On Offer
10:50am: SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that there are “mixed signals” regarding whether there’s a firm deadline from the Mets to Bauer. Thosar tweets that there is not a concrete deadline in place, but a decision is nevertheless expected soon.
10:05am: The Mets have set a noon ET deadline on their current offer to free-agent righty Trevor Bauer, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). The current offer is a front-loaded, three-year pact in the $100-110MM range with opt-out clauses after years one and two, per Sherman. Bauer would earn upwards of $40MM in years one and two under the current proposal. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweets that the Mets do expect an answer from Bauer today.
Depending on the specific guarantee of the deal, that range suggests it’s possible for Bauer to set a new record for a contract’s average annual value. Anything north of $108MM on a three-year term would topple his former UCLA teammate Gerrit Cole‘s current record of $36MM with the Yankees — albeit over a much shorter term than Cole’s nine-year commitment. Even if the total falls shy of that sum and Bauer narrowly misses an AAV record, if the Mets are indeed willing to pay upwards of $40MM in year one of the contract, that could represent a record in and of itself.
The Dodgers, according to Sherman, remain “in the mix” to sign Bauer, although MLB.com’s Jon Morosi indicated this morning that at least as of last night, it was the Mets who had the highest offer to Bauer on the table. While last night’s report from USA Today that Bauer and the Mets had a deal has been widely shot down, it does appear as though Bauer’s camp is nearing a decision on where he’ll play for at least the 2021 season.