Pitcher Notes: Mets, Paxton, Robertson, Sanchez
The Mets made a run at James Paxton, but they were outbid by the Mariners, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Heyman suggests the Mets will now turn their attention to Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi. Frankly, it seems unlikely they would find the right price point on Odorizzi coming off a very similar season to Paxton (but with a longer track record of good health). Besides, the list of players the Mets “were in on” includes Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, George Springer and others, notes Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). That’s not a knock on the Mets, of course, who have been one of the more active teams this winter. Let’s check in some other free agent pitchers…
- Free agent reliever David Robertson threw for a handful of teams yesterday, but the price on his long-term future remains unclear. His old pals from New York were in attendance, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter), but the Yankees are far from the only team who might have interest. Despite the dumb-luck turn of his Philly tenure, Robertson is an intriguing buy-low candidate. Injuries limited the right-hander to seven appearances over the past two seasons, but in the ten years prior, Robertson should be proud of a 2.67 ERA/2.77 FIP while striking out an excellent-for-the-era 32.6 percent of hitters and walking a near-average 9.5 percent of challengers. The Yankees probably remember better than most just how good Robertson was in his prime. Approaching his age-36 season, Robertson is decidedly on the downslope of his career – but he has a long way to fall before losing his utility.
- Aaron Sanchez also headed back to the hill to throw for scouts on Saturday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets were among those present, as they continue to keep their hand in the starting pitching market. Sanchez is on record as wanting a spot in the rotation, which could limit his potential landing spots. It now seems like ages ago that Sanchez led the American League with a 3.00 ERA over 30 starts for the Blue Jays in 2016. Since that All-Star campaign, Sanchez has compiled a 5.29 ERA/5.12 FIP across 55 starts totaling 272 1/3 innings with a worm-killing 47.8 percent groundball rate. An 18.1 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate are less than inspiring figures, however.
New York Notes: Justin Wilson, Brett Gardner
All things being equal, Justin Wilson seems to prefer a return to the Mets, but the Metropolitans have only just begun conversations with the veteran southpaw, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). It’s not difficult to imagine a deal coming together quickly, however. Wilson does appear close to signing somewhere, notes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Coming of a strong 3.66 ERA/3.04 FIP over 19 2/3 innings in 2020, he certainly presents as a useful arm.
In fact, the Yankees are among those clubs said to negotiating with Wilson, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The Yankees are close to the first luxury tax threshold, and the assumption has been that they intend to stay under it. That doesn’t give them a lot of room for Wilson, who is one of the more attractive arms in a southpaw market that includes a fair amount of depth with T.J. McFarland, Oliver Perez, Tony Watson and Sam Freeman among the remaining lefties. The Yankees still probably have about $7MM or so to spend before surpassing mark, however, so another acquisition is not beyond the realm of possibility.
Much because of those financial realities, whether or not they reunite with Brett Gardner, for the first time this winter, seems like a coin flip. The Yankees really don’t need him given where their roster stands today – especially with Jay Bruce brought in on a low-risk minors pact. That said, he’s a fan favorite, their longest-tenured player, and he is said to want to return. That should make this easy, but as Rosenthal notes, Gardner’s production last season could theoretically line him up for quite a bit more than $7MM over one season. Gardner’s 110 wRC+ in 2020 and 114 wRC+ over the last two seasons marks him as a potentially superior option to just about every other outfielder remaining on the market.
That said, he will be 37-year-old this season, and he’s long been viewed as a Yankee loyalist, which could have tempered his market. At this point, the question probably boils down to exactly how much Gardner wants to remain in New York. Otherwise, he’s pretty well out of leverage.
Latest On Justin Turner
Justin Turner‘s market had already reportedly narrowed to four teams, and the field could now be even thinner for the former All-Star. The Dodgers and Brewers have each made multi-year contract offers to Turner, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), and while the third baseman could potentially have other longer-term offers on the table, Turner seems “less likely” to sign with other rumored suitors like the Braves, Mets, or Blue Jays.
If Turner’s final four is now down to a final two, the Dodgers are still in the lead, according to both Heyman and FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). There has been a widespread expectation for much of the winter that Turner would eventually re-sign with Los Angeles, though some wrinkles were added by Turner’s initial ask of a four-year contract, and the Dodgers already projected to spend far beyond the $215MM luxury tax threshold. As per Roster Resource, the Dodgers’ tax number for 2021 is over $240MM (thanks in large part to the Trevor Bauer signing), and spending beyond $250MM would trigger the maximum tax penalty — a 42.5% surtax on overages, and the Dodgers’ first 2021 draft pick would be dropped back in the draft order by 10 spots.
Of course, the Dodgers could have no issue taking the extra one-year tax hit in order to bolster their chances at another World Series title, or to retain a star player who has spent the last seven seasons in Dodger blue. Still, the lack of common ground to date between Turner and the Dodgers has opened the door for a team like Milwaukee, as Murray writes that the Brewers made a “competitive” offer. It seems unlikely that any team would be willing to give four guaranteed years to the 36-year-old Turner, but speculatively, the Brewers might gain an edge over L.A. by offering three years depending on the nature of the Dodgers’ offer.
As for the other teams linked to Turner, earlier reports suggested that the Mets weren’t getting far in contract talks. The chances of Turner going to Atlanta or Toronto seemed to dim after those teams made other high-priced signings — the Braves and Marcell Ozuna, and the Blue Jays with George Springer and Marcus Semien.
Seth Lugo To Undergo Bone Spur Surgery
Mets right-hander Seth Lugo will undergo elbow surgery to fix a broken bone spur on Tuesday, the team announced. The issue was discovered after Lugo had been suffering from elbow inflammation during his offseason workouts. Lugo won’t begin throwing for at least six weeks following his procedure, so he will surely begin the season on the injured list as he continues to build up arm strength.
Lugo posted a 5.15 ERA over 36 2/3 innings for New York in 2020, beginning the season in the bullpen but then starting his final seven outings. Advanced metrics indicate that he pitched better than that 5.15 ERA would indicate, as Lugo’s numbers were skewed by two very poor starts against the Phillies and Nationals (Lugo was touched for 12 runs over three total innings) and a big home run rate. The righty had a 3.29 SIERA and very strong strikeout (29.4%) and walk (6.3%) percentages, while also posting a 48.5 grounder rate and some elite curveball spin.
A 34th-round pick for the Mets back in 2011, Lugo rose through the organizational ranks and broke into the Show as a starter in 2016-17, and also made five starts during the 2018 season. For much of 2018-19, however, Lugo was a very effective reliever out of the Amazins’ bullpen, and he was slated to return to that role (perhaps with the odd spot start) in 2021. While it doesn’t seem like Lugo’s surgery is overtly major, it obviously isn’t a good sign for him to miss such a big chunk of Spring Training, and he’ll need at least a month to properly prepare and ramp back up.
With Lugo gone for at least some time at the start of the season, Robert Gsellman and the newly-acquired Jordan Yamamoto look like the Mets’ top options for rotation depth should one of their projected starting five also suffer an injury prior to Opening Day. The Mets are still reportedly looking into starting pitching options, and if a new arm is added, Joey Lucchesi will likely be the odd man out who is moved into the bullpen.
Mets Trade Ali Sanchez To Cardinals
The Cardinals have acquired catcher Ali Sanchez from the Mets in exchange for cash, per a club announcement. New York had designated Sanchez for assignment this week after adding Jonathan Villar on a big league deal. The Cardinals are now up to 39 players on their 40-man roster.
Sanchez, 24, made his MLB debut with the Mets in 2020, though he only tallied 10 plate appearances, going 1-for-9 in that time. He’s regarded as an above-average defensive catcher with solid bat-to-ball skills but minimal power. He split the 2019 season between Double-A and Triple-A, batting a combined .261/.326/.322 with a homer and 17 doubles. That production closely mirrors his tepid .259/.317/.331 slash in parts of six minor league seasons, though it should be noted that Sanchez has only fanned in 14.2 percent of his 1484 minor league plate appearances.
Sanchez threw out 44 percent of attempted base thieves against him in his last minor league season (2019) and boasts an even better 46 percent mark in his minor league career. He’s a potential backup option for Yadier Molina if the Cards want to give Andrew Knizner regular at-bats in Triple-A rather than have him sit on the big league bench and start once per week or so.
Latest On Mets’ Interest In Kris Bryant
Though the Mets and Cubs tabled their talks for Kris Bryant at some point last month, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the two sides have re-engaged to some extent more recently.
As outlined here in the past, any trade involving Bryant would be complicated for myriad reasons. The former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP is coming off his worst season, though that came in a truncated 2020 schedule, making it more difficult to evaluate his ability to rebound. He’s also controlled for only one more season and owed a hefty $19.5MM at a time when most clubs throughout the league are wary of taking on more money. There’s also little hope of Bryant, a Scott Boras client, signing an extension — be it with the Cubs or with a new team that acquires him in a trade.
Martino indicates that the Mets have been looking for takers to offload relievers Dellin Betances and/or Jeurys Familia, both of whom are signed through 2021 at rather inflated amounts. Betances exercised a player option valued at $6.8MM for the coming season, while Familia is owed $11MM this coming season ($1MM of which is deferred until 2022). His contract also contains a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Speculatively speaking, the Mets could try to push either reliever on the Cubs as something of a financial counterweight.
Of course, the Mets already have a third baseman who’s been a productive hitter for them: 27-year-old J.D. Davis. New York controls Davis all the way through the 2024 season, and while his ceiling isn’t as high as Bryant’s, Davis has been every bit as productive as Bryant over the past couple seasons (.288/.370/.483 to Bryant’s .267/.365/.488). Davis, however, is owed just $2.1MM this year and eligible for three more raises in arbitration between now and the 2024-25 offseason.
Martino adds that the Cubs have at times expressed interest in acquiring Davis themselves, which isn’t a shock given his affordable price tag and recent level of production. However, getting the Mets to part with Davis in return for Bryant alone seems decidedly unlikely. Even attaching Familia’s final year to Davis would still mean the Mets were taking on more than $6MM in new salary and parting with four years of Davis in exchange for one year of a hopeful Bryant rebound.
It’s easy to conjure up more elaborate scenarios in which the Cubs send Bryant and an established pitcher to the Mets, who could use an upgrade in the rotation to push Joey Lucchesi into more of a depth role. The Mets just missed on Trevor Bauer in free agency, and they’ve recently been linked to free-agent starters. The Cubs adding any MLB pitching help to a potential deal would likely necessitate adding more pieces on the Mets’ side, however, further illustrating the difficult nature of actually coming to an agreement on such a layered discussion.
Mets Designate Brad Brach For Assignment
The Mets announced that they have designated reliever Brad Brach for assignment. They did so to make room for the signing of infielder Jonathan Villar.
The well-traveled Brach joined the Mets in August 2019, shortly after the Cubs released him, and did well enough in the season’s final weeks for New York to re-sign him entering last year. Brach wasn’t able to follow up on that success, though, as he gave the Mets 12 1/3 innings of eight-earned run ball with just as many walks as strikeouts (14). Also of concern: Brach averaged just over 90 mph on his fastball – far below his lifetime mean of 93.6.
The soon-to-be 35-year-old Brach forewent another trip to free agency this past October when he chose to exercise a $2.075MM player option for 2021. However, Brach could soon head back to the open market if the Mets don’t find a taker for him in a trade, as he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment.
While 2020 was rocky for Brach, he has been durable and adept at preventing runs for most of his career. He has thrown at least 60 innings in six different seasons and has pitched to a 3.39 ERA/3.78 SIERA with an above-average strikeout rate of 25.1 percent over 522 2/3 frames.
Royals Acquire Andrew Benintendi In 3-Team Deal
The Royals have announced a three-team deal to acquire outfielder Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox. Outfielder Franchy Cordero is part of the return going to Boston, along with righty Josh Winckowski, who’ll come from the Mets. The Boston org also receives three players to be named later, two from Kansas City and one from New York. On their end, the Mets will add K.C. outfield prospect Khalil Lee.
Benintendi is under team control through the 2022 season. He’ll earn $6.6MM for the upcoming campaign under a two-year arbitration agreement he made previously with the Sox. The Sox will pick up $2.8MM of the tab on Benintendi’s 2021 salary.
There’s no doubting Benintendi’s talent. He has largely produced above-average offensive numbers while delivering well-rated, versatile glovework across the outfield. Benintendi shone in particular in 2018, when he ran a .290/.366/.465 slash line with 16 home runs and 21 stolen bases over 661 plate appearances.
Unfortunately, Benintendi’s output has drooped a bit since that time. He was merely an average offensive performer in 2019, though his batted-ball figures (.330 wOBA vs. .348 xwOBA) suggested some poor fortune. And he struggled mightily in brief action last year, with a forgettable 14-game effort halted by what turned out to be a season-ending rib injury.
The Royals obviously believe a well-rested Benintendi can return to form. To reach his previous levels, the former sixth-overall pick will both need to rediscover his acumen at the plate and rebound from a multi-year decline in foot speed.
For the rights to Benintendi, the Royals will part with a package of potentially interesting but unestablished players. Cordero is 26 years of age, like Benintendi, but has only taken 315 MLB plate appearances over the past four seasons. Despite immense potential, he has been thwarted to this point by injuries and has yet to fully test himself at the game’s highest level.
The Sox will give Cordero a chance to find his footing in the bigs, though even if he’s successful he’ll only come with one more season of control than Benintendi. They’ll otherwise look solely to the future in this deal. Winckowski, whom the Mets acquired earlier in the offseason, has yet to crack the upper minors. He’s considered a potential back-of-the-rotation arm. It remains to be seen what names will be available in the PTBNL selection pool, but the Red Sox will have three chances to choose far-away young talent after getting a fresh look over the coming months.
For the Mets, it’s rather a straightforward situation. The club obviously preferred the future of Lee to that of Winckowski (and whatever PTBNL ends up moving in the deal). In addition to filling a void in the team’s prospect pool, Lee has some serious potential upside. He’s a certified burner, having swiped 53 bags at Double-A in 2019, but still has some developing to do as a hitter.
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter) first reported a deal was in the works. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweeted an agreement was in place. Further details were reported by Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link), Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter), Heyman (Twitter link), Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (in a tweet), MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (on Twitter), Chad Jennings of The Athletic (in a tweet), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Designate Ali Sanchez
The Mets have designated catcher Ali Sanchez for assignment, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports on Twitter. His roster spot was needed to make way for the team’s new addition this evening.
Sanchez, 24, becomes the second player to lose a Mets 40-man spot this evening. He reached the majors briefly in 2020, getting enough time to record his first hit but little more. Sanchez earned that opportunity primarily with his glovework, as he carries a marginal .259/.317/.331 batting line over his minor-league career.
Mets Designate Corey Oswalt
The Mets have designated righty Corey Oswalt for assignment, per a team announcement. His roster spot will go to Albert Almora, whose previously reported deal is now official.
Oswalt, 27, has received several MLB opportunities over the past three seasons. All told, he carries a 6.19 ERA with a 16.4% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 41.3% groundball rate through 84 1/3 innings of action.
None of those stats jump off the page. Likewise, Oswalt doesn’t throw particularly hard and didn’t produce gaudy peripherals in the minors. That said, he has produced full-season, sub-3.00 ERA efforts at the Double-A and Triple-A levels and could hold appeal elsewhere as a depth arm.