NL Notes: Papelbon, Mets, Cubs
Here’s the latest out of the National League:
- The Dodgers could potentially look to acquire Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon, according to a tweet from Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. A source tells Saxon that he expects Los Angeles to pursue the 33-year-old righty, who is carrying a 1.21 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in his third year in Philly. Long considered one of the worst contracts in baseball, Papelbon’s deal is actually looking less onerous as he continues to produce results and its timeline shortens. On top of his $13MM salary this season, Papelbon is owed $13MM next year and comes with a vesting option at that same rate for 2016. The option would become guaranteed if he finishes 55 games next year or 100 total between 2014-15. He has topped 50 games finished in each of the last seven years and is on pace to do so once again.
- Did the Mets waste star third baseman David Wright‘s best years? That is the question posed by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who notes that the 31-year-old has battled injuries and is hitting well off of his career pace even after a hot streak. Though the club’s young talent has real promise of delivering a rebound for the franchise, Sherman wonders if everything will congeal while Wright is still a top-end contributor.
- For that reason and many others, Mets GM Sandy Alderson finds himself in something of a delicate position heading out of the All-Star break, as David Lennon of Newsday writes. While the club has pulled itself into shouting distance of the post-season picture, neither does it look like a prime time to buy. Selling players like Daniel Murphy and Bartolo Colon would not only run some public relations and attendance risks, but could lessen the club’s chances in 2015. On the other hand, standing pat might mean foregoing an opportunity to bolster the team’s talent base and opening payroll space for the coming offseason.
- While the Cubs appear to have a surplus of top position prospects, along with a few talented younger bats at the MLB level, that does not mean that there is any rush to move pieces around, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. Not all prospects transition to the big leagues, of course, and in any event most of the team’s better pre-major league pieces appear to offer sufficient positional flexibility that Chicago will have plenty of options in the unlikely event that they all pan out.
NL Notes: Mets, Colon, Murphy, Greinke, Fedde
The National League representative in the World Series will cede the right to home-field advantage as a result of tonight’s All-Star game, which the American League took 5-3. Here’s the latest out of the NL:
- The Mets still do not know whether they attempt to acquire a bat at the trade deadline, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). Of course, that would presumably also require a decision that the team will pursue contention; New York is seven games back in the NL East at the break.
- If, instead, the Mets turn into sellers, one name that has drawn some attention is hurler Bartolo Colon, but Puma reports that the club has not yet received interest in the veteran righty. The 41-year-old owns a 3.99 ERA with 6.6 K/9 against just 1.3 BB/9 through 121 2/3 innings. He is playing on a $9MM salary this year and is guaranteed $11MM for 2015.
- Another popular name in trade circles is Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy, who also has been rumored as an extension candidate as he enters his final season of arbitration eligibility. Murphy says that the team has not yet engaged him in extension talks, reports Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (via Twitter). At age 29, Murphy owns a .294/.342/.413 batting line with seven long balls and 11 stolen bases.
- Dodgers starter Zack Greinke says that he will be paying close attention to the coming free agent market as he assesses whether to exercise his opt-out clause after the 2015 season, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. “What happens with [Jon] Lester and [Max] Scherzer will say a lot,” said Greinke. Though the righty notes that salaries seem to still be on the rise, he also says that he is aware of the fact that teams tend to be “paying more for future performance” than past results. As Shaikin notes, Greinke will have the right to choose between another bout of free agency and the $71MM over three years that he’ll have left on his deal otherwise.
- One notable recent draftee that has yet to sign is Nationals first-rounder Erick Fedde, who fell to the 18th slot (with its $2,145,600 bonus allocation) after undergoing Tommy John surgery. As Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports, there is a growing belief that a deal might not get done. Like several other recent Nats choices whose signings have come down to the wire, Fedde is a client of agent Scott Boras. The high-upside righty wants $3MM, says Kilgore, which he was apparently told he could get by teams picking after Washington. The collegiate junior is said to believe he could still land that level of bonus next year; as Kilgore notes, he will not throw a pitch in the meantime regardless.
- Per the MLB.com draft signing tracker, Washington has saved a total of $358.2K on its remaining selections from the first ten rounds, with second-rounder Andrew Suarez ($987.8K slot) and ninth-rounder Austin Byler ($145.9K slot) still unsigned, and the latter reportedly unlikely to do so. By my math, assuming the Nats sign Suarez at slot value but cannot ink Byler, they could chip in an additional $278,990 (5% above total slot for signed players, which comes with a 75% overage tax) before hitting penalties that would require the sacrifice of a first-round pick next year. Added to the other savings and Fedde’s own slot allocation, that would mean D.C. could pay Fedde as much as $2,782,790.
Mets Make Bartolo Colon Available
The Mets have made Bartolo Colon available in trades, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports. The team isn’t thought to be seriously negotiating a Colon trade at this time, though a Major League source thinks the Mets will start hearing more offers on the veteran right-hander over the next week.
It was reported last week that the Mets were listening to offers for the 41-year-old Colon, who fits as a trade chip given his contract ($3.75MM remaining this season and $11MM in 2015) and the fact that New York has the young pitching depth to take Colon’s spot in the rotation both this season and next. The Mets could wait until past the July 31st deadline to move Colon and “it is not a foregone conclusion that he will be dealt” at all, Rubin writes.
The Mets’ deadline needs include a power-hitting left fielder and a shortstop who can supplant Ruben Tejada, Rubin reports, though these pieces wouldn’t necessarily come from a Colon trade. (While Colon is still pitching effectively, his age will likely prevent the Mets from landing a true impact young player in return.) The Diamondbacks and Cubs stand out as teams with a possible surplus at shortstop, and the Mets have been connected to Didi Gregorius in the past, though Rubin hears that Tony La Russa is still evaluating Arizona’s roster and may wait until the offseason for major moves.
As for the Cubs, the addition of Addison Russell to an organization that already has Starlin Castro in the bigs and star prospect Javier Baez at Triple-A would seem to make them trade partners for the Mets as well. Rubin says that Baez “is believed to be a more realistic target” for the Mets, though it would take a major deal to get Chicago to part with a player who is a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball, despite Baez’s underwhelming Triple-A numbers this season.
To create room in the outfield, the Mets are trying to find trades for Chris Young and Eric Young Jr. Neither player is enjoying a particularly strong season, though Young Jr. will be more attractive to other teams due to his speed (25-for-28 in steals) and two remaining years of team control, whereas Chris Young is owed over $3MM for the rest of the year.
NL East Notes: Zimmermann, Murphy, Phillies, Hamels
The Nationals are crossing their fingers after All-Star starter Jordan Zimmermann left today’s start with a right arm issue. Initial indications were positive, as the club said that Zimmermann was experiencing a biceps cramp and that hopes are it is not a serious issue, Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington reports on Twitter.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- The Mets have not fielded much interest lately in second baseman Daniel Murphy, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. A club official also told Puma that trade talks have generally been rather quiet.
- Having “hit rock bottom,” it is time for the Phillies to deal, opines ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Insider link). Olney posits that pitchers Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon could hold appeal to larger-payroll clubs, outfielder Marlon Byrd would draw interest given the dearth of available power bats, Chase Utley would be a good match for the Athletics or Giants. The market is shaping up well for Philly, Olney says, with the recent spate of significant injuries.
- While some have suggested that Phillies lefty Cole Hamels could be had by the Yankees, in part by a willingness to take on his substantial salary, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer argues that is highly unlikely. The Phillies would only deal Hamels if one of the pieces coming back (among others) was a solid, young starter that could slot right into the rotation, says Murphy, and that is something New York cannot offer.
Mets Sign Michael Conforto
The Mets have officially announced the signing of first-round pick Michael Conforto (Twitter link). The Scott Boras client had previously been reported to have agreed to terms at a $2.97MM bonus (per MLB.com’s Jim Callis), but reports over the past few weeks indicated that the two sides were hung up on a few non-financial details.
All of that is worked out now, and Conforto can get a start on his professional career. An outfielder out of Oregon State, he was widely considered to be one of the best bats in the draft. Conforto ranked as the No. 8 prospect in this draft by ESPN’s Keith Law and Baseball America while Jonathan Mayo and Callis of MLB.com ranked him 17th.
Conforto batted a whopping .345/.504/.547 with seven homers, 16 doubles and a pair of triples in 59 games for Oregon State in 2014 — his junior season. Law praised Conforto’s power to his pull side, also noting that he works counts well and is able to hit the ball to the opposite field. Law expressed concerns about Conforto’s defense, however, questioning his range and his throwing arm in left field. BA offered a bit of a different take, writing that he improved his previously fringy defense and is now adequate, and their scouting report projected him as a 20-25 homer hitter down the road. MLB.com shared some of the defensive concerns and worried that he might swing and miss too much, however that scouting report also projected him to hit 25-plus homers with regularity at his peak.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
New York Notes: Tanaka, Colon, McCarthy
The Yankees have officially placed right-hander Masahiro Tanaka on the disabled list with what they’ve termed right elbow inflammation for the time being. The Rookie of the Year/Cy Young contender has been arguably the most valuable player on the Yankees this season, and an extended absence would seriously dampen the Yankees’ postseason hopes. Currently, the team sits four games out of first in the AL East and three and a half games out of the running for a Wild Card spot, despite having spent most of the season without CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda.
Here’s more on the Yankees and the Mets…
- The Yankees’ entire season is hanging in balance as the team waits to learn the severity of Tanaka’s injury, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. In the event of a serious injury to Tanaka, he opines, the Yankees will have to give serious consideration to selling off at the deadline. Sherman discusses the trickle-down effect that such an injury would have on the team, noting that Yankee starters have recorded just 33 outs after the seventh inning this season — and 25 of those have come from Tanaka. His absence would further strain an overworked bullpen, and the team lacks enough quality internal rotation options to survive such a blow.
- Andy Martino of the New York Daily News gets the sense that the Mets are likely to move Bartolo Colon this summer but may hold on to the rest of their regulars. The team wants to contend in 2015, he says, and they feel they have the pitching depth to make up for the loss of Colon. Others, such as Daniel Murphy, would not be so easily replaced. Additionally, trading Colon would free up $10MM in payroll for next season, which could be reallocated to fill other needs.
- New Yankees pitcher Brandon McCarthy told reporters, including Dan Barbarisi of the Wall Street Journal, that he doesn’t feel that he’s having a bad year, but rather, a confusing year. McCarthy, who has a 5.01 ERA, explains that he’s well-versed in sabermetrics and knows that based on career-bests in strikeout rate, ground-ball rate and average fastball velocity, he’s doing things right. “I know there’s been mistake pitches here and there that get hurt, but that’s to be expected,” said McCarthy. “It’s the other things happening, where I leave a game and feel like I’ve done everything I needed to and the results are terrible. That’s where I’ve been kind of confused.” Barbarisi’s piece also looks at how McCarthy re-invented himself after delving into sabermetrics while recovering from a shoulder injury in 2010.
NL East Notes: Mets, Murphy, Phillies, Braves, Miller
Mets GM Sandy Alderson maintains that the club is still assessing what course it will take at the trade deadline, reports ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin. “Look, let’s see where we are at the end of this week,” said Alderson. “We’re always willing to listen. We may be thinking in terms of the second half of this season. We may be thinking more in terms of next season.” Alderson continued to note that, even if the team sells, it may not be willing to settle for lower-level talent: “We’ve made a lot of deals in recent years where we’ve gotten prospects who are a good ways away. I don’t think we’re thinking that way these days, although sometimes that’s the value in a return.”
Here’s the latest out of New York and the rest of the National League East:
- After talking with people familiar with Alderson’s thinking, David Lennon of Newsday gets the sense that the Mets‘ GM isn’t necessarily committed to the idea of trading Daniel Murphy. Lennon does note that the team is eager to get another look at Wilmer Flores, who is playing second base at Triple-A Las Vegas these days.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. took to the air to defend the capabilities of several of the team’s veterans in a radio interview (audio link) with Mike Missanelli of 97.5 The Fanatic. “If you want to talk about declining, that happens,” said Amaro. “But that doesn’t mean they aren’t producing in some way shape or form and Chase [Utley] is one of those guys.” Nevertheless, Amaro acknowledged that several of the team’s long-term deals have not worked out as hoped: “Unfortunately these guys are human beings and they aren’t living up to what we expected and we’re trying to do something about that right now.” Going forward, the team is in a “fluid situation,” said the Philly GM. “I talk to [team owner] David [Montgomery] and our group all the time about what our direction is,” he said.
- The Braves are prioritizing the acquisition of a “lockdown-type left-hander” for the bullpen, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. O’Brien argues that the club should make a push to add Andrew Miller of the Red Sox, noting his outstanding 14.7 K/9 mark and domination of opposing left-handed hitters. The 29-year-old has indeed been outstanding, with a 2.41 ERA through 33 2/3 frames thus far in his walk year.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Cubs Notes: Russell, Castro, Mets
The Cubs dominated headlines over the weekend by trading Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Athletics, and here’s the latest buzz around Wrigleyville…
- James Russell‘s name was “heard very often” as a trade possibility this weekend, Peter Gammons tweets. With Chicago in seller mode, Russell’s 2.22 ERA would definitely attract teams looking for a left-handed bullpen arm, though his 4.45 xFIP suggests he has been greatly helped by a .209 BABIP and an 82.6% strand rate this year. Russell has also posted reverse splits this season by pitching much better against right-handed hitters, as opposed to his usual dominance over left-handed batters. Russell, 28, is pitching on a one-year, $1.775MM contract and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter. The southpaw also drew a lot of interest during last year’s trade deadline and was close to being dealt to the Braves.
- A member of the Mets organization described Starlin Castro as “a perfect match” for their club, John Harper of the New York Daily News reports. Addison Russell‘s acquisition makes the Cubs even deeper at shortstop and Castro seems like a logical trade candidate, while Harper feels the Mets have the young pitchers necessary to swing a deal. Harper suggests Zack Wheeler and a minor league leaguer could interest the Cubs, though the Mets would balk at moving Wheeler and Jacob deGrom, or top prospect Noah Syndergaard.
- Newsday’s David Lennon, however, doesn’t see the Mets rushing to acquire any major pieces this month, let alone for Castro. In regards to the Cubs shortstop, the Mets would have issues taking on Castro’s contract and one New York official brought up Castro’s somewhat low on-base percentages as a cause for concern.
- The Cubs’ focus on amassing position player depth in their minor league system stands contrary to the Cardinals’ long-standing strategy of developing as many young pitchers as possible, Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.
Cafardo On Bryant, Russell, Twins, Peavy, Mets
Cubs executive Jason McLeod sees flashes of Troy Glaus in top prospect Kris Bryant, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. “Definitely 40-home run power,” says McLeod. “There’ll be some strikeouts, but he has a great eye at the plate. He’ll take his share of walks and work the count.” Bryant, last year’s second overall draft pick, continues to dominate after having been promoted to Triple-A Iowa, hitting .364/.432/.773 in 74 plate appearances there. Here’s more from Cafardo.
- One reason Addison Russell made sense for the Cubs in the Jeff Samardzija deal, Cafardo suggests, is that Russell is unlikely to stick at shortstop, meaning that he won’t be blocked by Starlin Castro and/or Javier Baez.
- The Twins‘ best trade chips could include Josh Willingham and Kendrys Morales, Cafardo writes. Willingham could make sense for the Red Sox or Royals.
- Some NL teams could show interest in starter Jake Peavy if the Red Sox are willing to eat some of the remainder of his 2014 salary.
- Daniel Murphy could make sense for the Giants if the Mets decide to deal him. AL East teams could have interest in Bartolo Colon, and the Mets might be able to get at least some talent in return if they elect to trade him. The Mets are trying to decide if they can make enough noise in the second half to keep players like Murphy and Colon, Cafardo writes.
Reactions To A’s-Cubs Trade
For weeks now, the baseball world has been waiting for the Cubs to line up trades for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Last night, Theo Epstein & Co. killed two birds with one stone and packaged both together in a deal with the A’s. In return for two of the most talked about pitchers on the trade block, the Cubs received top prospect Addison Russell, outfield prospect Billy McKinney, and pitcher Dan Straily. Here’s a look at some of the reactions to the blockbuster deal.
- MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (on Twitter) says the Cubs are taking an interesting approach by stockpiling top position player prospects and putting off acquiring pitching. Dierkes can see Straily providing Travis Wood-like value for the Cubs since teams pay big money for innings from a No. 4 type (link). Meanwhile, the deal makes the rest of the trade season kind of anticlimactic for Cub fans after their two best trade chips were moved on the Fourth of July (link).
- Before pulling the trigger on the deal with the Cubs, the A’s discussed a swap involving Russell with the Rays for David Price, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports. However, nothing ever materialized on that front.
- The Yankees exchanged proposals with the Cubs on both Samardzija and Hammel, but could not compete with Russell’s inclusion, tweets FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.
- In a separate tweet, Rosenthal reports the A’s don’t intend to flip Hammel because they will need him to win the AL West.
- ESPN’s Keith Law writes in an Insider piece (subscription required) the A’s and Cubs both significantly impacted their franchise, albeit with different timelines in mind.
- The early word is the Cubs are not looking to make any moves from their shortstop stockpile as the Mets have nothing brewing with Chicago and the Yankees have checked but to no avail, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links).
- Moneyball isn’t about on-base percentage or any one statistic, it’s about exploiting what is over- or under-valued and prospects are over-valued at present, writes Sherman. However, he notes (link) Javier Baez and Russell are big guys who might not stay at shortstop, so Starlin Castro may still be the Cubs’ long-term guy.
- The A’s may have made themselves the favorites for 2014, but the Cubs ultimately may have won the deal, writes CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. “He’s Barry Larkin with power,” one rival baseball executive said of Russell.
- The loss of Russell, in particular, could end up haunting the A’s, whose current shortstop Jed Lowrie is a free agent after this season, but GM Billy Beane has never been afraid to take an unconventional route, writes Rosenthal.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle echoes Rosenthal and adds the trade may point towards an extension for Lowrie and this wouldn’t be a bad time to do it.
- The trade demonstrates Beane’s burning desire to win now and now could be his only window for winning a World Series, according to MLB.com’s Jane Lee.
- Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com calls this trade fascinating because of the guts it took to swing such a deal between two men (Epstein and Beane) who defy convention for the way the game of baseball changes.
- The Cubs signed Hammel to a one-year, $6MM deal in late January and in July he has netted them one of the five best prospects in baseball, notes Passan (via Twitter).
- Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron (via Twitter) is usually against trading great young talent, but likes the trade for the A’s since present wins have so much value to them right now. Of course, he likes the swap from the Cubs‘ perspective, too.
- Mike Petriello of Fangraphs writes the trade is a win-win for both the A’s and Cubs, but the real winner could be the Rays, who just saw two of the top available starting pitchers dealt while only one contender benefited increasing the demand for Price.
- Addison Russell (Twitter link) is excited to be joining forces with Kris Bryant.
- Billy McKinney called the A’s an “amazing and classy organization” and is “excited to start and (sic) new chapter in the Cubs organization” (Twitter links).
- Dan Straily also tweeted his appreciation of the A’s organization, but is looking forward to beginning the next chapter of his career with the Cubs (Twitter links).
Edward Creech contributed to this post.