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What They Said When The Mets Signed Oliver Perez

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Mets GM Omar Minaya signed Oliver Perez to a three-year, $36MM deal in February of 2009, and he's given the team 112 1/3 innings of 6.81 ball over two seasons.  There's a good chance he'll be released this month, with the team eating $12MM.  It could have been worse, too - Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the Mets floated a four-year, $44MM deal, but Perez and Scott Boras wanted the chance to re-enter the free agent market after three years.  

It's easy to trash the Perez signing now, but what were reporters and analysts saying at the time of the deal?  Don't worry, I am not immune…

Tim Dierkes, MLB Trade Rumors

I think it was about right since he is so young and can be dominant.  Maybe a slight overpay but that is OK for a team like the Mets to do.

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Ben Shpigel, New York Times

Perez has agreed in principle to a three-year, $36 million contract to remain with the Mets in a deal that should benefit both parties. Without guaranteeing a fourth year or even including a vesting option, the Mets fortified their rotation Monday with a 27-year-old left-hander who is comfortable pitching in New York; who last season baffled their chief rival, the Philadelphia Phillies; and who has the potential to shine brighter than [Derek] Lowe.

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Matthew Cerrone, MetsBlog

The thing i like most about this is that, even if Perez is a total bust, and regresses, the Mets can move this contract…had he ever signed for five years and $60 million, like he was initially looking for, he’d be a total albatross…but, if the Mets were to eat some of the money, there will always be a taker for a 28–year-old lefty earning, say, $16 million over two years.

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Joel Sherman, New York Post

Now the Mets will hope the lack of focus or lack of maturity or whatever it is exactly that detours Perez from consistent excellence will melt away.

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Buster Olney, ESPN

Personally, I like the signing for the Mets.

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Jayson Stark of ESPN listed Perez under his three most outrageous contracts, writing:

The Mets win a bidding war with themselves to reel in Oliver Perez.

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Jon Heyman, SI.com

The Mets had to get Oliver Perez back. They weren't comfortable with their main fallback option, which was [Randy] Wolf.

The Next Steps For Oliver Perez

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9:02am: Perez will not be released today, a source tells Martino (Twitter link).  Instead, he'll get two bullpen appearances and will be released if they are not stellar.

8:03am: "The end is drawing closer" for Oliver Perez and the Mets, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.  Perez's Spring Training starts were "mere theater," writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Now, Mets GM Sandy Alderson, manager Terry Collins, and pitching coach Dan Warthen will meet today to decide between giving Perez a shot at relief or releasing him immediately, according to Martino.

Why are the Mets going through these motions with Perez?  Some in the organization really want to see him audition for the bullpen, tweets Martino.  Otherwise, Sherman has two theories.  One is that the new administration must "put on a show" for ownership before cutting Perez.  The other is that ownership is aiming to release Perez and Luis Castillo closer to the season, to "get the most positive bump" with fans before Opening Day.

Releasing Perez and Castillo will require the Mets to eat $18MM.  Click here for my list of other candidates to be released this month.

Who Could Be Released This Month?

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With certain contracts, there comes a time when a team would prefer to pay the player to go away and free up a roster spot.  For example, two years ago the Tigers ate $14MM in releasing Gary Sheffield and the Phillies assumed $8MM to let Geoff Jenkins go.  Here's a look at some big money players who I think stand a chance of being cut this month.

  • Oliver Perez, Mets: one year, $12MM.  A team insider told ESPN's Adam Rubin three days ago that Perez is highly likely to be released.  Today Perez allowed three runs in the first inning of a split-squad game and followed that with a couple of scoreless frames.
  • Luis Castillo, Mets: one year, $6MM.  Rubin wrote that Castillo "appears destined for the same fate" as Perez, despite the team's unsettled second base situation.
  • Carlos Silva, Cubs: one year, $13.5MM.  The Cubs are only on the hook for $8MM to Silva this year, as they're receiving $5.5MM from Seattle.  The Cubs' last two rotation spots are too early to call, but if Silva continues to pitch poorly in his next few outings and isn't amenable to long relief, the Cubs might have to let him go.
  • Armando Galarraga, Diamondbacks: one year, $2.3MM.  The D'Backs would only be on the hook for roughly $380K if they release Galarraga by the 15th, whereas Zach Duke's salary is guaranteed.  If Aaron Heilman or Barry Enright makes the rotation, Galarraga or Duke would have to slide to the bullpen or be released.
  • Barry Zito, Giants: three years, $64.5MM.  Most teams would be thrilled with a low 4.00s ERA from their fifth starter, so the idea of releasing Zito was strange from the start.
  • Aaron Rowand, Giants: two years, $24MM.  The Giants have a crowded outfield, and cutting Rowand makes sense.  They've also got Nate Schierholtz, who is out of options.
  • Milton Bradley, Mariners: one year, $12MM.  Bradley's legal issues aside, Spring Training seems to be going well enough for him.  He's even playing center field today.  This one is hard to call right now.
  • Danys Baez, Phillies: one year, $2.75MM.  Baez had a rough first year for the Phillies, but he can probably squeeze his way onto the Opening Day roster.
  • Ryan Doumit, Pirates: one year, $5.6MM.  Doumit isn't generating much trade interest, but releasing him would be a last resort and probably won't be necessary prior to Opening Day.

Quick Hits: Rockies, Pagan, Phillies

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Links for Tuesday, as fans receive good news on Justin Morneau and concerning news on Carlos Beltran…

Jays, Brewers Head List Of Dominican Signings

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The Dominican Prospect League has announced several more signings:

  • The Blue Jays signed 17-year-old outfielder Francisco Tejada for $150K.  With the move, all 30 teams have signed a player out of the DPL.  The press release refers to Tejada's "high athletic ceiling," citing his speed and arm.
  • The Brewers inked 17-year-old third baseman Estervin Matos for $100K after a strong offensive performance in the DPL.
  • Additionally, the Mets signed righty Miguel Angel Bautista for $10K, the Nationals signed righty Deury Vazquez for $30K, and the Diamondbacks signed American-born middle infielder Jesse Liriano for $10K.

Starting Pitchers Linked Entering 2011

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Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley and John Danks all went to arbitration for the first time before last season and all settled for contracts in the $3-4MM range. The four pitchers went to arbitration again this offseason and settled for contracts within the $5.75-$6.3MM range. A year from now, they will become points of reference for the class of pitchers just behind them (those currently entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible players). Here's a list of pitchers who could be compared to the quartet above after the 2011 season:

  • Mike Pelfrey, $3.925MM in 2011 - Pelfrey already has a tremendous amount of big league experience and a fourth consecutive season of 30-plus starts could push his 2012 asking price past the $6.28MM Billingsley will earn in 2011, especially considering Pelfrey's high 2011 salary. Pelfrey doesn't have particularly impressive strikeout numbers or ERAs, however, which will help the Mets keep the right-hander's salary in check.
  • Dallas Braden, $3.35MM in 2011 - Garza was working from the same base salary in 2010 and he earned a $2.6MM raise after logging 204 2/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in the AL East with a 2.4 K/BB ratio. If Braden wants to match Garza's raise, he'll have to earn it with another big year.
  • Jair Jurrjens, $3.25MM in 2011 - Jurrjens is well-positioned to ask for a salary in the $6MM range next year if he returns to his 2008-09 level of productivity.

Guthrie, Garza, Billingsley and Danks all had relatively healthy, productive seasons in 2010, which kept their 2011 salaries within a $600K range. A poor performance would have disrupted the pattern and the same applies to this year's class. They have to pitch well and stay healthy to earn raises to the $6MM range. Meanwhile, others will have the chance to prove they belong in the same discussion as Pelfrey, Jurrjens and Braden if they have big years.

  • Phil Hughes, $2.7MM in 2011 - Hughes, who has just one full season as a Major League starter, is starting from a lower base salary than the others, so he'd likely need a standout season to approach $6MM in 2012.
  • Brandon Morrow, $2.3MM in 2011 - Morrow doesn't have the bulk numbers his peers do, so he's at a disadvantage. But he has flashed dominant stuff and if he continues pitching the way he did from June on last year, he could justify asking for a larger-than-usual raise.

Other starters, including Edinson Volquez and Kevin Slowey, are also entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible pitchers, but raises to the $6MM range seem extremely improbable given their current salaries and career numbers. The same goes for super two players Armando Galarraga, Kyle Kendrick, Ross Ohlendorf and Luke Hochevar.

Mets Notes: Rodriguez, Reyes, Finances, Wright

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Let's check out the latest Mets-related links, as Carlos Beltran makes his spring debut vs. the Red Sox….

  • Brian Costa of The Wall Street Journal explains one interesting way in which the Mets could avoid having Francisco Rodriguez's $17.5MM option for 2012 vest. K-Rod needs to finish 55 games this season to trigger the option.
  • All signs point to Jose Reyes playing for a team other than the Mets in 2012, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman talked to five non-Mets executives and not one expects to see New York re-sign Reyes. As we heard yesterday from SI.com's Jon Heyman, Reyes' OBP will be a major consideration as the Mets contemplate their future with the shortstop.
  • In a separate piece, Sherman wonders whether we'll see a full-fledged fire sale from the Mets, with the Wilpons attempting to keep control of the team. Two rival execs that spoke to Sherman said it would be wise for the organization to cut payroll nearly in half for 2012. If the club were to go in that direction, deciding whether to try to extend or trade David Wright would be the toughest call, says Sherman.
  • Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times examines why the Mets and Dodgers, two franchises with ownership uncertainties, are being treated differently by Bud Selig.

New York Notes: Mets, Piazza, Yankees, Aceves

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Eight years ago today, the Yankees signed Ramon Ramirez to a minor league contract after winning his rights via the posting system with a $350K bid. Ramirez, then 21, had been with the Hiroshima Carp, appearing in just two games with them from 2002-2003.

Here's some links from the Big Apple…

  • Bud Selig briefly spoke to SI.com's Jon Heyman (Twitter link) about the Mets' ownership and dire financial situation. "We're in unchartered waters. I talk to Fred (a lot), we just have to hope it works out," said the commissioner. The team is said to be seeking another loan on top of the $100MM it's already been granted by the league.
  • Mike Piazza is helping coach Team Italy this spring, and he told ESPN New York's Adam Rubin and Newsday's David Lennon that he would like to own a team someday, but not necessarily the Mets (Twitter links). When asked if he's been contacted by anyone about owning a club, Piazza replied "I can't confirm or deny."
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe that he doesn't believe he'll be able to acquire a starter before the Opening Day, and perhaps not until June. "Normally anything of quality doesn't become available until after the June draft," said Cashman. "That's why you try and get as much as you can get accomplished in the winter. I know New York doesn't handle patience very well. But I'm from Kentucky, so it's a little easier for me to deal with."
  • Cashman also spoke to Abraham about why the Yankees non-tendered Alfredo Aceves, who eventually signed with the Red Sox. "I offered him a minor league contract, that was it. I wasn't going to do anything more than that," said the GM. "Because of the back issue, we could not give him [a Major League contract]. He was throwing off the mound for us and he always hit a wall. So we ultimately continued to fail throughout the entire process to get him off the DL and active. He had a lot of success for a period of time, but then ultimately we'd had to take steps back and we'd have to shut him down and re-do the treatment."

Mets Want Reyes To Improve OBP Before New Deal

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One of the key components of being a leadoff man is the ability to get on base, and people familiar with the Mets' thinking tell SI.com's Jon Heyman that the team wants Jose Reyes to improve his on-base percentage before they give him a multiyear deal (Twitter link). The 27-year-old posted a .321 OBP in 2010.

Reyes' OBP was an issue earlier in his career as well; he got on base just 30.3% of the time in his first three seasons, a span of 1,254 plate appearances. He responded by posting an OBP between .354 and .358 in the next three years before a hamstring injury shortened his 2009 campaign. Reyes' career OBP is .335, and for comparison's sake, leadoff hitters around the game got on base at a .329 clip in 2010.

Reyes will earn $11MM in 2011 after the Mets exercised the club option in his contract. He's scheduled to be a free agent after the season. Last month we heard that the team wants to see if Reyes can stay healthy this summer before offering him a new contract. That's fine with the switch-hitting shortstop; he recently said he prefers to wait until after the season to talk about a new deal anyway.

New York Notes: Izzy, Crawford, Perez, Montero

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One year ago today, the Mets signed Kiko Calero, who was coming off of a season in which he posted a 1.95 ERA with 10.4 K/9 for the Marlins. Calero never pitched for the Mets and the team released him in May. Here are today's New York notes…

  • Jason Isringhausen will retire if he doesn't make the Mets' roster this spring, the veteran reliever tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • Carl Crawford didn't think the Yankees had much interest in him this winter, and Brian Cashman confirmed as much to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.  Crawford "didn't mesh with what we had here and my need for starting pitching" and while Cashman is a Crawford fan, "I've got someone I'm excited about in Brett Gardner, who's $142MM less."  (both Twitter links)
  • With Chris Capuano and Chris Young in line to win rotation spots, it all but confirms that the Mets will release Oliver Perez, says ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin.
  • Jesus Montero appears to have an excellent chance of winning the Yankees' backup catcher job, since Francisco Cervelli will miss at least four weeks with a broken foot. Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he has no interest in delaying Montero's arbitration clock by holding him back for the first few months of the season (Twitter link).
  • Before the injury, Chad Jennings of the Journal News reports that the Yankees seem legitimately impressed by Montero's improvement behind the plate. It appeared early on that the Yankees would send Montero to the minors to play every day, but as ESPN.com's Buster Olney explains, Montero has become a better, more dedicated catcher and remains a force at the plate.
  • Francisco Rodriguez told Newsday's David Lennon that he wants to do "double" this year in order to regain the confidence of Mets fans after a trying 2010 season. Rodriguez repeated that he isn't worried about the 2012 option that vests at $17.5MM if he finishes 55 games this season.
  • Johnny Damon told Peter Botte of the New York Daily News that he was never close to returning to the Yankees, since he isn't ready to be a part-time player and the Yankees have a DH and three outfielders. In a few years, however, Damon says he'll be ready for a part-time role.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

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